Decision Curve Analysis Research Articles

Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting short-term prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

BackgroundAccurate assessment and timely intervention play a crucial role in ameliorating poor short-term prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism (APE) patients. The currently employed scoring models exhibit a degree of complexity, and some models may not comprehensively incorporate relevant indicators, thereby imposing limitations on the evaluative efficacy. Our study aimed to construct and externally validate a nomogram that predicts 30-day all-cause mortality risk in APE patients. MethodsClinical data from APE patients in Intensive Care-IV database was included as a training cohort. Additionally, we utilized our hospital's APE database as an external validation cohort. The nomogram was developed, and its predictive ability was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots and decision curve analysis. ResultsA collective of 1332 patients and 336 patients were respectively enrolled as the training cohort and the validation cohort in this study. Five variables including age, malignancy, oxygen saturation, blood glucose, and the use of vasopressor, were identified based on the results of the multivariate Cox regression model. The ROC value for the nomogram in the training cohort yielded 0.765, whereas in the validation group, it reached 0.907. Notably, these values surpassed the corresponding ROC values for the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, which were 0.713 in the training cohort and 0.754 in the validation cohort. ConclusionsThe nomogram including five indicators had a good performance in predicting short-term prognosis in patients with APE, which was easier to apply and provided better recommendations for clinical decision-making.

Clinical Decision Analysis of Genetic Evaluation and Testing in 1013 Intensive Care Unit Infants with Congenital Heart Defects Supports Universal Genetic Testing.

Extracardiac anomalies (ECAs) are strong predictors of genetic disorders in infants with congenital heart disease (CHD), but there are no prior studies assessing performance of ECA status as a screen for genetic diagnoses in CHD patients. This retrospective cohort study assessed this in our comprehensive inpatient CHD genetics service focusing on neonates and infants admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). The performance and diagnostic utility of using ECA status to screen for genetic disorders was assessed using decision curve analysis, a statistical tool to assess clinical utility, determining the threshold of phenotypic screening by ECA versus a Test-All approach. Over 24% of infants had genetic diagnoses identified (n = 244/1013), and ECA-positive status indicated a 4-fold increased risk of having a genetic disorder. However, ECA status had low-moderate screening performance based on predictive summary index, a compositive measure of positive and negative predictive values. For those with genetic diagnoses, nearly one-third (32%, 78/244) were ECA-negative but had cytogenetic and/or monogenic disorders identified by genetic testing. Thus, if the presence of multiple congenital anomalies is the phenotypic driver to initiate genetic testing, 13.4% (78/580) of infants with isolated CHD with identifiable genetic causes will be missed. Given the prevalence of genetic disorders and limited screening performance of ECA status, this analysis supports genetic testing in all CHD infants in intensive care settings rather than screening based on ECA.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting sever cancer-related fatigue in patients with cervical cancer

ObjectiveCancer-related fatigue (CRF) has been considered the biggest influencing factor for cancer patients after surgery. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for severe cancer-related fatigue (CRF) patients with cervical cancer (CC).MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted to develop and validate a nomogram (building set = 196; validation set = 88) in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of a Class III hospital in Shenyang, Liaoning Province. We adopted the questionnaire method, including the Cancer Fatigue Scale (CFS), Medical Uncertainty in Illness Scale (MUIS), Medical Coping Modes Questionnaire (MCMQ), Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and Sense of Coherence-13 (SOC-13). Binary logistic regression was used to test the risk factors of CRF. The R4.1.2 software was used to develop and validate the nomogram, including Bootstrap resampling method, the ability of Area Under Curve (AUC), Concordance Index (C-Index), Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Calibration calibration curve, and Decision Curve Analysis curve (DCA).ResultsThe regression equation was Logit(P) = 1.276–0.947 Monthly income + 0.989 Long-term passive smoking − 0.952 Physical exercise + 1.512 Diagnosis type + 1.040 Coping style − 0.726 Perceived Social Support − 2.350 Sense of Coherence. The C-Index of the nomogram was 0.921 (95% CI: 0.877\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ \\sim $$\\end{document}0.958). The ROC curve showed the sensitivity of the nomogram was 0.821, the specificity was 0.900, and the accuracy was 0.857. AUC was 0.916 (95% CI: 0.876\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$ \\sim $$\\end{document}0.957). The calibration showed that the predicted probability of the nomogram fitted well with the actual probability. The DCA curve showed when the prediction probability was greater than about 10%, the benefit of the nomogram was positive. The results in the validation group were similar.ConclusionThis nomogram had good identifiability, accuracy and clinical practicality, and could be used as a prediction and evaluation tool for severe cases of clinical patients with CC.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict medication risk based on a knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) survey of residents in Shanxi Province, China.

Unsafe medication practices and medication errors are a major cause of harm in healthcare systems around the world. This study aimed to explore the factors that influence the risk of medication and provide medication risk evaluation model for adults in Shanxi province, China. The data was obtained from the provincial questionnaire from May to December 2022, relying on the random distribution of questionnaires and online questionnaires by four hospitals in Shanxi Province. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to explore the factors affecting the KAP score of residents. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the independent risk factors, and the nomogram was verified by receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration and decision curve analysis. A total of 3,388 questionnaires were collected, including 3,272 valid questionnaires. The average scores of drugs KAP were 63.2 ± 23.04, 33.05 ± 9.60, 23.67 ± 6.75 and 33.16 ± 10.87, respectively. On the evaluation criteria of the questionnaire, knowledge was scored "fair", attitude and practice were scored "good". Sex, monthly income, place of residence, insurance status, education level, and employment were regarded as independent risk factors for medication and a nomogram was established by them. Males, low-income, and low-educated people are important factors affecting the risk of medication. The application of the model can help residents understand the risk of their own medication behavior and reduce the harm of medication.

Venous thromboembolism in patients with acute myeloid leukemia: development of a predictive model.

Patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) are at increased risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTE). However, thromboprophylaxis is largely underused. This study aimed to determine possible VTE development risk factors and to develop a novel predictive model. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with newly diagnosed AML. We used univariate and multivariable logistic regression to estimate binary outcomes and identify potential predictors. Based on our final model, a dynamic nomogram was constructed with the goal of facilitating VTE probability calculation. Out of 626 eligible patients with AML, 72 (11.5%) developed VTE during 6 months of follow-up. Six parameters were independent predictors: male sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.82, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.077-2.065), prior history of thrombotic events (OR 2.27, 95% CI: 1.4-4.96), international normalized ratio (OR 0.21, 95% CI: 0.05-0.95), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (OR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.53-0.94), and intensive therapy (OR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.07-3.91). The C statistics for the model was 0.68. The model was adequately calibrated and internally validated. The decision-curve analysis suggested the use of thromboprophylaxis in patients with VTE risks between 8 and 20%. We developed a novel and convenient tool that may assist clinicians in identifying patients whose VTE risk is high enough to warrant thromboprophylaxis.

CT-based radiomics for predicting pathological grade in hepatocellular carcinoma.

To construct and validate radiomics models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) grade predictions based on contrast-enhanced CT (CECT). Patients with pathologically confirmed HCC after surgery and underwent CECT at our institution between January 2016 and December 2020 were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation datasets. With tumor segmentation and feature extraction, radiomic models were constructed using univariate analysis, followed by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. In addition, combined models with clinical factors and radiomics scores (Radscore) were constructed using logistic regression. Finally, all models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). In total 242 patients were enrolled in this study, of whom 170 and 72 formed the training and validation datasets, respectively. The arterial phase and portal venous phase (AP+VP) radiomics model were evaluated as the best for predicting HCC pathological grade among all the models built in our study (AUC = 0.981 in the training dataset; AUC = 0.842 in the validation dataset) and was used to build a nomogram. Furthermore, the calibration curve and DCA indicated that the AP+VP radiomics model had a satisfactory prediction efficiency. Low- and high-grade HCC can be distinguished with good diagnostic performance using a CECT-based radiomics model.

Machine learning and optical coherence tomography-derived radiomics analysis to predict persistent diabetic macular edema in patients undergoing anti-VEGF intravitreal therapy

BackgroundDiabetic macular edema (DME) is a leading cause of vision loss in patients with diabetes. This study aimed to develop and evaluate an OCT-omics prediction model for assessing anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) treatment response in patients with DME.MethodsA retrospective analysis of 113 eyes from 82 patients with DME was conducted. Comprehensive feature engineering was applied to clinical and optical coherence tomography (OCT) data. Logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), and backpropagation neural network (BPNN) classifiers were trained using a training set of 79 eyes, and evaluated on a test set of 34 eyes. Clinical implications of the OCT-omics prediction model were assessed by decision curve analysis. Performance metrics (sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, and AUC) were calculated.ResultsThe logistic, SVM, and BPNN classifiers demonstrated robust discriminative abilities in both the training and test sets. In the training set, the logistic classifier achieved a sensitivity of 0.904, specificity of 0.741, F1 score of 0.887, and AUC of 0.910. The SVM classifier showed a sensitivity of 0.923, specificity of 0.667, F1 score of 0.881, and AUC of 0.897. The BPNN classifier exhibited a sensitivity of 0.962, specificity of 0.926, F1 score of 0.962, and AUC of 0.982. Similar discriminative capabilities were maintained in the test set. The OCT-omics scores were significantly higher in the non-persistent DME group than in the persistent DME group (p < 0.001). OCT-omics scores were also positively correlated with the rate of decline in central subfield thickness after treatment (Pearson’s R = 0.44, p < 0.001).ConclusionThe developed OCT-omics model accurately assesses anti-VEGF treatment response in DME patients. The model’s robust performance and clinical implications highlight its utility as a non-invasive tool for personalized treatment prediction and retinal pathology assessment.

Nomogram for predicting early hypophosphatemia in term infants

BackgroundPhysiological processes rely on phosphate, which is an essential component of adenosine triphosphate (ATP). Hypophosphatasia can affect nearly every organ system in the body. It is crucial to monitor newborns with risk factors for hypophosphatemia and provide them with the proper supplements. We aimed to evaluate the risk factors and develop a nomogram for early hypophosphatemia in term infants.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study involving 416 term infants measured serum phosphorus within three days of birth. The study included 82 term infants with hypophosphatemia (HP group) and 334 term infants without hypophosphatemia (NHP group). We collected data on the characteristics of mothers, newborn babies, and childbirth. Furthermore, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for hypophosphatemia in term infants, and a nomogram was developed and validated based on the final independent risk factors.ResultsAccording to our analysis, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that male, maternal diabetes, cesarean delivery, lower serum magnesium, and lower birth weight were independent risk factors for early hypophosphatemia in term infants. In addition, the C-index of the developed nomogram was 0.732 (95% CI = 0.668–0.796). Moreover, the calibration curve indicated good consistency between the hypophosphatemia diagnosis and the predicted probability, and a decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.ConclusionsThe analysis revealed that we successfully developed and validated a nomogram for predicting early hypophosphatemia in term infants.

Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database

ABSTRACT Objective To establish an efficient nomogram model to predict short-term survival in ICU patients with aplastic anemia (AA). Methods The data of AA patients in the MIMIC-IV database were obtained and randomly assigned to the training set and testing set in a ratio of 7:3. Independent prognosis factors were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The variance inflation factor was calculated to detect the correlation between variables. A nomogram model was built based on independent prognostic factors and risk scores for factors were generated. Model performance was tested using C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and Kaplan-Meier curve. Results A total of 1,963 AA patients were included. A nomogram model with 7 variables was built, including SAPS II, chronic pulmonary obstructive disease, body temperature, red cell distribution width, saturation of peripheral oxygen, age and mechanical ventilation. The C-indexes in the training set and testing set were 0.642 and 0.643 respectively, indicating certain accuracy of the model. ROC curve showed favorable classification performance of nomogram. The calibration curve reflected that its probabilistic prediction was reliable. DCA revealed good clinical practicability of the model. Moreover, the Kaplan-Meier curve showed that receiving mechanical ventilation could improve the survival status of AA patients in the short term but did not in the later period. Conclusion The nomogram model of the short-term survival rate of AA patients was built based on clinical characteristics, and early mechanical ventilation could help improve the short-term survival rate of patients.

Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Mortality After Hip Fracture with Machine Learning Techniques

In order to estimate the likelihood of 1, 3, 6 and 12 month mortality in patients with hip fractures, we applied a variety of machine learning methods using readily available, preoperative data. We used prospectively collected data from a single university hospital in Copenhagen, Denmark for consecutive patients with hip fractures, aged 60 years and older, treated between September 2008 to September 2010 (n = 1186). Preoperative biochemical and anamnestic data were used as predictors and outcome was survival at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the fracture. After feature selection for each timepoint a stratified split was done (70/30) before training and validating Random Forest models, extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Generalized Linear Models. We evaluated and compared each model using receiver operator characteristic (ROC), calibration slope and intercept, Spiegelhalter’s z- test and Decision Curve Analysis. Using combinations of between 10 and 13 anamnestic and biochemical parameters we were able to successfully estimate the likelihood of mortality with an area under the curve on ROC curves of 0.79, 0.80, 0.79 and 0.81 for 1, 3, 6 and 12 month, respectively. The XGB was the overall best calibrated and most promising model. The XGB model most successfully estimated the likelihood of mortality postoperatively. An easy-to-use model could be helpful in perioperative decisions concerning level of care, focused research and information to patients. External validation is necessary before widespread use and is currently underway, an online tool has been developed for educational/experimental purposes (https://hipfx.shinyapps.io/hipfx/).

A New Risk Prediction Model for Detecting Endoscopic Activity of Ulcerative Colitis.

: Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an incurable, relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease that increases steadily. Mucosal healing has become the primary therapeutic objective for UC. Nevertheless, endoscopic assessments are invasive, expensive, time-consuming, and inconvenient. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a noninvasive predictive model to monitor endoscopic activity in patients with UC. : Clinical data of 198 adult patients with UC were collected from January 2016 to August 2022 at Huadong Hospital, China. : Patients with UC were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%, n=138) and the validation cohort (30%, n=60). The receiver operating characteristic curve value for the training group was 0.858 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.781 to 0.936), whereas it was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.731 to 0.960) for the validation group. The calibration curve employed the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p>0.05) to demonstrate the consistency between the predicted and the actual probabilities in the nomogram of these two groups. The decision curve analysis validated that the nomogram had clinical usefulness. : The nomogram, which incorporated activated partial thromboplastin time, fecal occult blood test, β2-globulin level, and fibrinogen degradation products, served as a prospective tool for evaluating UC activity in clinical practices.

Prediction model of deep vein thrombosis risk after lower extremity orthopedic surgery

PurposeThis investigation was conceived to engineer and appraise a pioneering clinical nomogram, crafted to bridge the extant chasm in literature regarding the postoperative risk stratification for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in the aftermath of lower extremity orthopedic procedures. This novel tool offers a sophisticated and discerning algorithm for risk prediction, heretofore unmet by existing methodologies. MethodsIn this retrospective observational study, clinical records of hospitalized patients who underwent lower extremity orthopedic surgery were collected at the Wuxi TCM Hospital Affiliated to the Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine between Jan 2017 and Oct 2019. The univariate and multivariate analysis with the backward stepwise method was applied to select features for the predictive nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to its discriminant capability, calibration ability, and clinical utility. ResultA total of 5773 in-hospital patients were eligible for the study, with the incidence of deep vein thrombosis being approximately 1 % in this population. Among 31 variables included, 5 of them were identified to be the predictive features in the nomogram, including age, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), D-dimer, platelet distribution width (PDW), and thrombin time (TT). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the training and validation cohort was 85.9 % (95%CI: 79.96 %–90.04 %) and 85.7 % (95%CI: 78.96 %–90.69 %), respectively. Both the calibration curves and decision curve analysis demonstrated the overall satisfactory performance of the model. ConclusionOur groundbreaking nomogram is distinguished by its unparalleled accuracy in discriminative and calibrating functions, complemented by its tangible clinical applicability. This innovative instrument is set to empower clinicians with a robust framework for the accurate forecasting of postoperative DVT, thus facilitating the crafting of bespoke and prompt therapeutic strategies, aligning with the rigorous standards upheld by the most esteemed biomedical journals.

Construction of a nomogram for predicting compensated cirrhosis with Wilson’s disease based on non-invasive indicators

BackgroundWilson’s disease (WD) often leads to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, and early diagnosis of WD cirrhosis is essential. Currently, there are few non-invasive prediction models for WD cirrhosis. The purpose of this study is to non-invasively predict the occurrence risk of compensated WD cirrhosis based on ultrasound imaging features and clinical characteristics.MethodsA retrospective analysis of the clinical characteristics and ultrasound examination data of 102 WD patients from November 2018 to November 2020 was conducted. According to the staging system for WD liver involvement, the patients were divided into a cirrhosis group (n = 43) and a non-cirrhosis group (n = 59). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent influencing factors for WD cirrhosis. A nomogram for predicting WD cirrhosis was constructed using R analysis software, and validation of the model’s discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability was completed. Due to the low incidence of WD and the small sample size, bootstrap internal sampling with 500 iterations was adopted for validation to prevent overfitting of the model.ResultsAcoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI), portal vein diameter (PVD), and serum albumin (ALB) are independent factors affecting WD cirrhosis. A nomogram for WD cirrhosis was constructed based on these factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model’s predictive ability is 0.927 (95% CI: 0.88–0.978). As demonstrated by 500 Bootstrap internal sampling validations, the model has high discrimination and calibration. Clinical decision curve analysis shows that the model has high clinical practical value. ROC curve analysis of the model’s rationality indicates that the model’s AUC is greater than the AUC of using ALB, ARFI, and PVD alone.ConclusionThe nomogram model constructed based on ARFI, PVD, and ALB can serve as a non-invasive tool to effectively predict the risk of developing WD cirrhosis.

Deep learning radiomics-based prediction model of metachronous distant metastasis following curative resection for retroperitoneal leiomyosarcoma: a bicentric study

BackgroundCombining conventional radiomics models with deep learning features can result in superior performance in predicting the prognosis of patients with tumors; however, this approach has never been evaluated for the prediction of metachronous distant metastasis (MDM) among patients with retroperitoneal leiomyosarcoma (RLS). Thus, the purpose of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT)-based deep learning radiomics model for predicting the occurrence of MDM in patients with RLS undergoing complete surgical resection.MethodsA total of 179 patients who had undergone surgery for the treatment of histologically confirmed RLS were retrospectively recruited from two tertiary sarcoma centers. Semantic segmentation features derived from a convolutional neural network deep learning model as well as conventional hand-crafted radiomics features were extracted from preoperative three-phase CECT images to quantify the sarcoma phenotypes. A conventional radiomics signature (RS) and a deep learning radiomics signature (DLRS) that incorporated hand-crafted radiomics and deep learning features were developed to predict the risk of MDM. Additionally, a deep learning radiomics nomogram (DLRN) was established to evaluate the incremental prognostic significance of the DLRS in combination with clinico-radiological predictors.ResultsThe comparison of the area under the curve (AUC) values in the external validation set, as determined by the DeLong test, demonstrated that the integrated DLRN, DLRS, and RS models all exhibited superior predictive performance compared with that of the clinical model (AUC 0.786 [95% confidence interval 0.649–0.923] vs. 0.822 [0.692–0.952] vs. 0.733 [0.573–0.892] vs. 0.511 [0.359–0.662]; both P < 0.05). The decision curve analyses graphically indicated that utilizing the DLRN for risk stratification provided greater net benefits than those achieved using the DLRS, RS and clinical models. Good alignment with the calibration curve indicated that the DLRN also exhibited good performance.ConclusionsThe novel CECT-based DLRN developed in this study demonstrated promising performance in the preoperative prediction of the risk of MDM following curative resection in patients with RLS. The DLRN, which outperformed the other three models, could provide valuable information for predicting surgical efficacy and tailoring individualized treatment plans in this patient population.Trial registration: Not applicable.

A prognostic model built on amino acid metabolism patterns in HPV-associated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

ObjectivesTo compare amino acid metabolism patterns between HPV-positive and HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients and identify key genes for a prognostic model. DesignUtilizing the Cancer Genome Atlas dataset, we analyzed amino acid metabolism genes, differentiated genes between HPV statuses, and selected key genes via LASSO regression for the prognostic model. The model's gene expression was verified through immunohistochemistry in clinical samples. Functional enrichment and CIBERSORTx analyses explored biological functions, molecular mechanisms, and immune cell correlations. The model's prognostic capability was assessed using nomograms, calibration, and decision curve analysis. ResultsWe identified 1157 key genes associated with amino acid metabolism in HNSCC and HPV status. The prognostic model, featuring genes like IQCN, SLC22A1, SYT12, and TLX3, highlighted functions in development, metabolism, and pathways related to receptors and enzymes. It significantly correlated with immune cell infiltration and outperformed traditional staging in prognosis prediction, despite immunohistochemistry results showing limited clinical identification of HPV-related HNSCC. ConclusionsDistinct amino acid metabolism patterns differentiate HPV-positive from negative HNSCC patients, underscoring the prognostic model's utility in predicting outcomes and guiding therapeutic strategies.

A two-center study of a combined nomogram based on mammography and MRI to predict ALN metastasis in breast cancer

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a predictive method for axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis of breast cancer by using radiomics based on mammography and MRI. Materials and methodsA retrospective analysis of 492 women from center 1 (The affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University) and center 2 (Yantai Yuhuangding Hospital) with primary breast cancer from August 2013 to May 2021 was carried out. The radscore was calculated using the features screened based on preoperative mammography and MRI from the training cohort of Center 1 (n = 231), then tested in the validation cohort (n = 99), an internal test cohort (n = 90) from Center 1, and an external test cohort (n = 72) from Center 2. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for the clinical and radiological characteristics most associated with ALN metastasis. A combined nomogram was established in combination with radscore that predicted the clinicopathological and radiological characteristics. Calibration curves were used to test the effectiveness of the combined nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of the combined nomogram and then compare with the clinical and radiomic models. The decision curve analysis (DCA) value was used to evaluate the combined nomogram for clinical applications. ResultsThe constructed combined nomogram incorporating the radscore and MRI-reported ALN metastasis status exhibited good calibration and outperformed the radiomics signatures in predicting ALN metastasis (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.886 vs. 0.846 in the training cohort; 0.826 vs. 0.762 in the validation cohort; 0.925 vs. 0.899 in the internal test cohort; and 0.902 vs. 0.793 in the external test cohort). The combination nomogram achieved a higher AUC in the training cohort (0.886 vs. 0.786) and the internal test cohort (0.925 vs. 0.780) and similar AUCs in the validation (0.826 vs. 0.811) and external test (0.902 vs. 0.837) cohorts than the clinical model. ConclusionA combined nomogram based on mammography and MRI can be used for preoperative prediction of ALN metastasis in primary breast cancer.

Predictive model for non-malignant portal vein thrombosis associated with cirrhosis based on inflammatory biomarkers.

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT), a complication of liver cirrhosis, is a major public health concern. PVT prediction is the most effective method for PVT diagnosis and treatment. To develop and validate a nomogram and network calculator based on clinical indicators to predict PVT in patients with cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis hospitalized between January 2016 and December 2021 at the First Hospital of Lanzhou University were screened and 643 patients with cirrhosis who met the eligibility criteria were retrieved. Following a 1:1 propensity score matching 572 patients with cirrhosis were screened, and relevant clinical data were collected. PVT risk factors were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Variance inflation factors and correlation matrix plots were used to analyze multicollinearity among the variables. A nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of PVT based on independent risk factors for PVT, and its predictive performance was verified using a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, a network calculator was constructed based on the nomograms. This study enrolled 286 cirrhosis patients with PVT and 286 without PVT. LASSO analysis revealed 13 variables as strongly associated with PVT occurrence. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed nine indicators as independent PVT risk factors, including etiology, ascites, gastroesophageal varices, platelet count, D-dimer, portal vein diameter, portal vein velocity, aspartate transaminase to neutrophil ratio index, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio. LASSO and correlation matrix plot results revealed no significant multicollinearity or correlation among the variables. A nomogram was constructed based on the screened independent risk factors. The nomogram had excellent predictive performance, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.821 and 0.829 in the training and testing groups, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA revealed its good clinical performance. Finally, the optimal cutoff value for the total nomogram score was 0.513. The sensitivity and specificity of the optimal cutoff values were 0.822 and 0.706, respectively. A nomogram for predicting PVT occurrence was successfully developed and validated, and a network calculator was constructed. This can enable clinicians to rapidly and easily identify high PVT risk groups.

Computed tomography radiogenomics: A potential tool for prediction of molecular subtypes in gastric stromal tumor.

Preoperative knowledge of mutational status of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) is essential to guide the individualized precision therapy. To develop a combined model that integrates clinical and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) features to predict gastric GISTs with specific genetic mutations, namely KIT exon 11 mutations or KIT exon 11 codons 557-558 deletions. A total of 231 GIST patients with definitive genetic phenotypes were divided into a training dataset and a validation dataset in a 7:3 ratio. The models were constructed using selected clinical features, conventional CT features, and radiomics features extracted from abdominal CE-CT images. Three models were developed: ModelCT sign, modelCT sign + rad, and model CTsign + rad + clinic. The diagnostic performance of these models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Delong test. The ROC analyses revealed that in the training cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) values for modelCT sign, modelCT sign + rad, and modelCT sign + rad + clinic for predicting KIT exon 11 mutation were 0.743, 0.818, and 0.915, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC values for the same models were 0.670, 0.781, and 0.811, respectively. For predicting KIT exon 11 codons 557-558 deletions, the AUC values in the training cohort were 0.667, 0.842, and 0.720 for modelCT sign, modelCT sign + rad, and modelCT sign + rad + clinic, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC values for the same models were 0.610, 0.782, and 0.795, respectively. Based on the decision curve analysis, it was determined that the modelCT sign + rad + clinic had clinical significance and utility. Our findings demonstrate that the combined modelCT sign + rad + clinic effectively distinguishes GISTs with KIT exon 11 mutation and KIT exon 11 codons 557-558 deletions. This combined model has the potential to be valuable in assessing the genotype of GISTs.

Risk factors, prognostic factors, and nomograms for distant metastasis in patients with diagnosed duodenal cancer: A population-based study.

Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer, and distant metastasis (DM) in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis. Although nomograms have recently been used in tumor areas, no studies have focused on the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in patients with primary duodenal cancer. To develop and evaluate nomograms for predicting the risk of DM and personalized prognosis in patients with duodenal cancer. Data on duodenal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors in duodenal cancer patients with DM. Two novel nomograms were established, and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 2603 patients with duodenal cancer were included, of whom 457 cases (17.56%) had DM at the time of diagnosis. Logistic analysis revealed independent risk factors for DM in duodenal cancer patients, including gender, grade, tumor size, T stage, and N stage (P < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate COX analyses further identified independent prognostic factors for duodenal cancer patients with DM, including age, histological type, T stage, tumor grade, tumor size, bone metastasis, chemotherapy, and surgery (P < 0.05). The accuracy of the nomograms was validated in the training set, validation set, and expanded testing set using ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA curves. The results of Kaplan-Meier survival curves (P < 0.001) indicated that both nomograms accurately predicted the occurrence and prognosis of DM in patients with duodenal cancer. The two nomograms are expected as effective tools for predicting DM risk in duodenal cancer patients and offering personalized prognosis predictions for those with DM, potentially enhancing clinical decision-making.

Identification of TNFRSF1A as a potential biomarker for osteosarcoma.

Osteosarcoma (OS) is a relatively rare malignant bone tumor in teenagers; however, its molecular mechanisms are not yet understood comprehensively. The study aimed to use necroptosis-related genes (NRGs) and their relationships with immune-related genes to construct a prognostic signature for OS. TARGET-OS was used as the training dataset, and GSE 16091 and GSE 21257 were used as the validation datasets. Univariate regression, survival analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to screen for hub genes. The immune-related targets were screened using immune infiltration assays and immune checkpoints. The results were validated using nomogram and decision curve analyses (DCA). Using univariate Cox regression analysis, TNFRSF1A was screened from 14 NRGs as an OS prognostic signature. Functional enrichment was analyzed based on the median expression of TNFRSF1A. The prognosis of the TNFRSF1A low-expression group in the Kaplan-Meier curve was notably worse. Immunohistochemistry analysis showed that the number of activated T cells and tumor purity increased considerably. Furthermore, the immune checkpoint lymphocyte activation gene 3 (LAG-3) is a possible target for intervention. The nomogram accurately predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates. DCA validated the model (C = 0.669). TNFRSF1A can be used to elucidate the potential relationship between the immune microenvironment and NRGs in OS pathogenesis.