Decennial Census Research Articles

Family size, labor supply, and job prestige: Evidence from three decennial censuses in China

This study investigates the relationship between family size and parents’ labor market performance, measured by labor supply and occupational prestige scores, based on three census waves in 1990, 2000, and 2010. To address the endogeneity problem of family size, we use the indicator of twins at first birth as an instrumental variable. Our results suggest that in nuclear households, family size affects the labor market performance only of mothers, not of fathers, with the negative effects fading and gradually disappearing over time. More specifically, an increase in family size decreases female labor supply in the 1990 wave, leads to lower prestige scores among working mothers in the 2000 wave, and has no impact on labor supply or occupational prestige scores in the 2010 wave. Our subsample analysis indicates that the negative effects of family size are more severe for parents of households with all children under seven years old and for husbands or wives with lower education level than that of their partners. In addition, we find that the negative effects of family size on parental labor market outcomes are not observed in extended households, especially when no grandparents are aged 65 years or older.

Review of “The Misuse, Misrepresentation, and Politicization of Statistics in American Society”

In this book, Robert E. Parker discusses four major statistics collected by the US federal government: the unemployment rate, life expectancy, crime rates, and the decennial count of populations. He argues that each are flawed and help maintain the neoliberal status quo. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a strict definition of unemployment (the jobless need to report engaging in specific job-seeking activities to be classified as unemployed), so reliance on the official unemployment rate paints an overly rosy picture of the economy. Policy entrepreneurs point to growth in life expectancies to advocate for increasing the retirement age for Social Security and other pension plans, without acknowledging that this growth is unequal by race and class (and is also driven by reductions in infant mortality). The FBI Uniform Crime Report feeds into a popular preoccupation with “street crime” and does a poor job of enumerating cybercrimes and white-collar crime, which arguably are more costly than street crime. The decennial census undercounts children and Black and Latino residents in the United States, preventing the proper representation of those populations in the House of Representatives and also making it harder for social service agencies to target resources at populations that need them.

Examining the Long-term Association Between Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Obesity and Obesity-related Unhealthy Behaviors Among Children: Results From the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study.

Literature has focused on neighborhood environments and their possible impacts on obesity and obesity-related behaviors. However, few longitudinal studies have examined the effect of neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) on childhood obesity. Investigate the longitudinal association between nSES and obesity and obesity-related unhealthy behaviors. We obtained data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 2,072). The main exposure was nSES (measured using an index of five variables representing wealth, income, education, and occupation from the Decennial Census 2000) at ages 3, 5, and 9. The outcome was children's body mass index z-score (BMIz) at ages 5, 9, and 15. Three measures of obesity-related behaviors (i.e., child- or caregiver-reported soda/snack food intake, fast-food intake, and sedentary behaviors) at ages 5, 9, and 15 were included as mediators and outcomes. Cross-lagged path analyses were conducted. Higher nSES at a previous wave was associated with consuming less soda/snack foods (βs = -0.15 to -0.11 [varying by ages], p < .05) and fast-food intake (βs = -0.21 to -0.14 [varying by ages], p < .01), and less frequent sedentary behaviors (βs = -0.14 to -0.06 [varying by ages], p < .01), but not with BMIz (βs = -0.08 to 0.05 [varying by ages], p > .05). Unhealthy behaviors did not mediate the nSES-BMIz association at alpha .05. Health policies need to target low-socioeconomic neighborhoods to shape healthy lifestyles in children. To develop effective interventions, future research needs to examine comprehensive potential mediators like obesity-related parenting skills, home environments, and built and social environments on the risk of childhood obesity and obesity-related behaviors.

Race Distribution in Nonarteritic Anterior Ischemic Optic Neuropathy

To describe the racial distribution of patients diagnosed with nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) in 2 large urban academic centers in the United States. Retrospective cross-sectional study. All patients with NAION evaluated between 2014 and 2022 in tertiary neuro-ophthalmology services in Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY, respectively, were included. In order to assess the racial accessibility to our services, similar numbers of patients with idiopathic intracranial hypertension seen in the same services were included. Self-reported race at the time of neuro-ophthalmologic examination was collected for all patients. Results were compared with data published by the US Bureau of Census for Decennial Census in 2020 for the states of Georgia and New York, and for the total population of the United States. In both locations, the vast majority of patients with NAION reported being White (91.06% in Atlanta and 78.9% in New York). Only 7.27% of patients in Atlanta and 3% in New York reported being Black, and 1.24% of patients in Atlanta and 5.9% in New York reported being Asian. There were a much higher proportion of White people among NAION patients than in the group of patients with idiopathic intracranial hypertension and in each respective state and in the United States. Our results show that the majority of patients with NAION are White, followed by Black and Asian races, respectively, thus confirming the NAION race distribution reported by past clinical trials.

Spatial Change of Support Models for Differentially Private Decennial Census Counts of Persons by Detailed Race and Ethnicity

Spatial Change of Support Models for Differentially Private Decennial Census Counts of Persons by Detailed Race and Ethnicity

Best Practices in Evolving Privacy Frameworks for Patient Age Data: Census Data Study.

Over the previous 4 decennial censuses, the population of the United States has grown older, with the proportion of individuals aged at least 90 years old in the 2010 census being more than 2 and a half times what it was in the 1980 census. This suggests that the threshold for constraining age introduced in the Safe Harbor method of the HIPAA (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act) in 1996 may be increased without exceeding the original levels of risk. This is desirable to maintain or even increase the utility of affected data sets without compromising privacy. In light of the upcoming release of 2020 census data, this study presents a straightforward recipe for updating age-constrained thresholds in the context of new census data and derives recommendations for new thresholds from the 2010 census. Using census data dating back to 1980, we used group size considerations to analyze the risk associated with various maximum age thresholds over time. We inferred the level of risk of the age cutoff of 90 years at the time of HIPAA's inception in 1996 and used this as a baseline from which to recommend updated cutoffs. The maximum age threshold may be increased by at least 2 years without exceeding the levels of risk conferred in HIPAA's original recommendations. Moreover, in the presence of additional information that restricts the population in question to a known subgroup with increased longevity (for example, restricting to female patients), the threshold may be increased further. Increasing the maximum age threshold would enable the data user to gain more utility from the data without introducing risk beyond what was originally envisioned with the enactment of HIPAA. Going forward, a recurring update of such thresholds is advised, in line with the considerations detailed in the paper.

A Statistical Comparison of Call Volume Uniformity Due to Mailing Strategy

Abstract For operations such as a decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau sends mail to potential respondents inviting a self-response. It is suspected that the mailing strategy affects the distribution of call volumes to the U.S. Census Bureau's telephone helplines. For staffing purposes, more uniform call volumes throughout the week are desirable. In this work, we formulate tests and confidence intervals to compare uniformity of call volumes resulting from competing mailing strategies. Regarding the data as multinomial observations, we compare pairs of call volume observations to determine whether one mailing strategy has multinomial cell probabilities closer to the uniform probability vector compared to another strategy. A motivating illustration is provided by call volume data recorded in three studies which were carried out in advance of the 2020 Decennial Census.

Building an Equitable Future Through Data Disaggregation.

Building an Equitable Future Through Data Disaggregation.

“The Veneer of Civilization Washed Off”: Anti-Black Posse-Lynchings in the Twentieth Century Rural Midwest

This study seeks to identify anti-Black posse-lynchings in the Midwest between 1910 and 1930, and to examine the ways in which they were framed by the media for their readers. It posits that these lynchings emerged as the foremost type of anti-Black lynching by the second decade of the twentieth century, casting doubt thereby on the prevailing scholarly assumption that the number of lynchings declined precipitously in these years. Because most of these incidents received little attention at the time and few received significant attention outside of the locality in which they occurred, this essay uses as its primary documentation the local and regional white newspapers that did record them, however imperfectly, and the data drawn from federal decennial censuses. With its singular focus on white-on-Black incidents, this study targets posse-lynchings as just one of several types of racist violence used to enforce white supremacy over Blacks, and, as such, it does not consider any of the white-on-white posse-lynchings that may have occurred in these years, although these, if present, might merit their own study.

Confidence-ranked reconstruction of census microdata from published statistics

A reconstruction attack on a private dataset D takes as input some publicly accessible information about the dataset and produces a list of candidate elements of D. We introduce a class of data reconstruction attacks based on randomized methods for nonconvex optimization. We empirically demonstrate that our attacks can not only reconstruct full rows of D from aggregate query statistics Q(D)∈ℝm but can do so in a way that reliably ranks reconstructed rows by their odds of appearing in the private data, providing a signature that could be used for prioritizing reconstructed rows for further actions such as identity theft or hate crime. We also design a sequence of baselines for evaluating reconstruction attacks. Our attacks significantly outperform those that are based only on access to a public distribution or population from which the private dataset D was sampled, demonstrating that they are exploiting information in the aggregate statistics Q(D) and not simply the overall structure of the distribution. In other words, the queries Q(D) are permitting reconstruction of elements of this dataset, not the distribution from which D was drawn. These findings are established both on 2010 US decennial Census data and queries and Census-derived American Community Survey datasets. Taken together, our methods and experiments illustrate the risks in releasing numerically precise aggregate statistics of a large dataset and provide further motivation for the careful application of provably private techniques such as differential privacy.

Comment: The Essential Role of Policy Evaluation for the 2020 Census DisclosureAvoidance System

In "Differential Perspectives: Epistemic Disconnects Surrounding the US Census Bureau's Use of Differential Privacy," boyd and Sarathy argue that empirical evaluations of the Census Disclosure Avoidance System (DAS), including our published analysis, failed to recognize how the benchmark data against which the 2020 DAS was evaluated is never a ground truth of population counts. In this commentary, we explain why policy evaluation, which was the main goal of our analysis, is still meaningful without access to a perfect ground truth. We also point out that our evaluation leveraged features specific to the decennial Census and redistricting data, such as block-level population invariance under swapping and voter file racial identification, better approximating a comparison with the ground truth. Lastly, we show that accurate statistical predictions of individual race based on the Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding, while not a violation of differential privacy, substantially increases the disclosure risk of private information the Census Bureau sought to protect. We conclude by arguing that policy makers must confront a key trade-off between data utility and privacy protection, and an epistemic disconnect alone is insufficient to explain disagreements between policy choices.

Trends in fatal occupational injury rates among older workers before and after the Great Recession of 2008

BackgroundOlder workers experience higher rates of fatal occupational injury than younger workers worldwide. In North Carolina, the population of older workers more than doubled between 2000 and 2017. In 2008,...

Changes in migration determinants along the urban hierarchy in China

ABSTRACT This paper examines trends of internal migration in China across two decades, with a focus on changes in socio-demographic predictors of origin-destination patterns. We use four microdata samples of the China decennial census and minicensus. After introducing a description of overall internal migration trends and providing a discussion of the utility of the urban hierarchy framework, we proceed with a two-step statistical approach. We look first descriptively at interprovincial bilateral migration flows. We then turn to a multivariate analysis of outmigration and destination selection as a function of age, sex, educational attainment and hukou status. Our results reveal the differential attractiveness of origins (for retention) and destinations by demographic characteristics and position within the urban hierarchy, and also indicate shifts in the strength of predictors over time. Greater educational attainment and urban hukou strongly favour the selection of a destination within the top levels of the urban hierarchy. Over time, selectivity by gender weakens. Although urban hukou and schooling become slightly less powerful predictors of interprovincial migration, attractiveness of top-tier destinations increases once individual demographic characteristics are controlled.

Latino dentists in the U.S. Census from 1980 to 2019: Implications for dental care access.

This study describes the supply of Latino dentists in the United States from 1980 to 2019, as tabulated by the Census. The number of Latino dentists per 100,000 Latino population was compared to the number of non-Hispanic White (NHW) dentists per 100,000 NHW population. These four-decade comparisons were made for the entire country as well as the five states having the largest Latino populations. Data from the decennial census and the American Community Survey were used to identify the nationwide population, the number of dentists, and their respective Spanish-language abilities, stratified by race/ethnic group (Latinos and non-Hispanic Whites). In 1980, there were only 18 Latino dentists for every 100,000 Latino population in the entire nation, compared to 70 NHW dentists per 100,000 NHW population. While there was an increase to 21 Latino dentists per 100,000 in 1990, the supply remained virtually the same over this almost 40-year period, ending back at 18 per 100,000 in 2019. In comparison, there were about four times as many non-Hispanic White dentists as Latino dentists. This national discrepancy was also reflected in the five states that were evaluated. Similarly, Latino dentists were far more likely to speak Spanish than NHW dentists at both the national and state levels. The Latino dentist supply, already inadequate in 1980, has remained virtually unchanged over the past almost 40 years. The authors believe that this deficiency will have profound consequences, and recommend that initiatives be undertaken to increase the number of Latino dentists.

Using administrative records to support the linkage of census data: protocol for building a longitudinal infrastructure of U.S. census records.

This article describes the linkage methods that will be used in the Decennial Census Digitization and Linkage project (DCDL), which is completing the final four decades of a longitudinal census infrastructure covering the past 170 years of United States history. DCDL is digitizing and creating linkages between nearly a billion records across the 1960 through 1990 U.S. censuses, as well as to already-linked records from the censuses of 1940, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Our main goals in this article are to (1) describe the development of the DCDL and the protocol we will follow to build the linkages between the census files, (2) outline the techniques we will use to evaluate the quality of the links, and (3) show how the assignment and evaluation of these linkages leverages the joint use of routinely collected administrative data and non-routine survey data.

Advanced Analytics Drives Reengineering of Field Operations for the 2020 U.S. Census

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts a census of population and housing every 10 years as mandated in the U.S. Constitution. Following up in person with households that do not respond online, by phone, or by mail, which is known as nonresponse follow-up (NRFU), represents a major component of this effort. For the 2010 Census, the Census Bureau equipped enumerators with paper maps and notebooks filled with questionnaires and required enumerators to go door to door and collect decennial census data. The enumerators met daily with their supervisors to return completed questionnaires and update payroll information. For the 2020 Census, an advanced analytics solution, utilizing machine learning and optimization techniques, drove a reengineering of the entire field operations process, leading to substantially reduced costs and improved productivity. These reengineering efforts included business processes and technology centered around the development of this solution, the MOJO Optimizer, and resulted in an 80% increase in the number of cases completed per hour (from 1.05 to 1.92) and a 27% decrease in the number of miles reimbursed per case (from 5.05 to 3.68) compared with the 2010 Census NRFU. Capitalizing on the massive innovations realized during decennial census operations, the Census Bureau intends to use this technology to revolutionize its over 90 active surveys.

Urbanization and the Paradox of Rural Population Decline: Racial and Regional Variation

The authors redress the commonplace narrative of rural decline. Data from the decennial censuses since 1980 reveal that rural growth is often counted as metro growth; that is, it is added to the expanding universe of metro counties. First, nonmetro counties (defined in 1980) grew from 55 million people in 1980 to roughly 70 million in 2020. Yet, because of nonmetro-to-metro reclassification, the 2020 census reports a nonmetro population of only 46 million. Second, nonmetro growth has been due almost entirely to endogenous growth of minority populations. Reclassification transferred disproportionate shares of America’s rural White population to the metro side of the demographic ledger, leaving behind rural minorities. Third, these racial differences in growth–both endogenous population growth and growth due to reclassification–are most apparent in the South, where most rural minorities live. Our goal is to provide both substantive and didactic lessons for studying population growth and decline.

Wealth and Child Mortality in the Nineteenth-Century United States: Evidence from Three Panels of American Couples, 1850-1880.

With only a few exceptions, the historical study of individual-level correlates of child mortality in the United States has been limited to the period surrounding the turn of the twentieth century, when children ever born and children surviving data collected by the 1900 and 1910 censuses allow indirect estimation of child mortality. The recent release of linked census data, such as the IPUMS MLP datasets, allows a different type of indirect estimation over a longer period. By following couples across subsequent decennial censuses, it is possible to infer child mortality by measuring whether couples' own children in the first census were still present in the second census. We focus our analysis on children aged 1-3 in the first of two linked censuses, who were less likely to be undercounted by the census than infants, and unlikely to be living apart from their parents in the second census. We estimate child mortality over the intervening decade and use OLS regression to correlate that mortality to the residence location and socioeconomic characteristics of their parents' households. We limit our analysis to three panel datasets for married couples linked between the 1850-60, 1860-70, and 1870-80 censuses, when real estate and personal estate wealth data were collected. Our results indicate a significant negative relationship between wealth and child mortality across all regions of the United States and over the entire period examined.

Where is the Land of Hope and Glory? The geography of intergenerational mobility in England and Wales*

AbstractWe present a new analysis of intergenerational mobility across three cohorts in England and Wales using linked decennial census microdata, focusing on occupation, homeownership, and education. Four main results emerge. First, area‐level differences in upward occupational mobility are highly persistent over time. Second, measures of absolute and relative mobility tend to be spatially positively correlated. Third, there is a robust relationship between upward educational and upward occupational mobility. Last, there is a small negative relationship between upward homeownership mobility and upward occupational mobility, revealing that social mobility comparisons based on different outcomes can have different trends.

The European native oyster,Ostrea edulis, in Wales, a historical account of a forgotten fishery

The history of the European native oyster has been documented for numerous countries within its natural range. However, the history ofOstrea edulisin Wales remains conspicuously absent from current UK and European peer-reviewed publications. It was therefore deemed necessary to address this and as a result in-depth research of archival data was conducted including local trade directories, decennial census returns, collections from the National Museum Wales, annual government fisheries reports and grey literature from local historical societies. These historical reviews resulted in the construction of a timeline which documents all the significant historical dates related toO. edulisin Wales from the early 1500 s to present day. Fisheries statistics for England and Wales were also analysed for the western regional oyster fisheries in an attempt to understand the contribution which the Welsh landings made to the region. The review revealed that the Welsh fishery was the primary contributor of regional landings from the early 1600 s with maximum landings reported 1894, with the oyster beds at Mumbles producing more oysters than any other port until the fishery closed in 1937. A commercial native oyster fishery no longer exists in Wales but there remains a small native oyster population in South Wales. It is hoped that the historical accounts of bountiful catches, overexploitation, and restoration ofO. edulisover the centuries in Wales may offer current conservation practitioners an insight into failures and mistakes of the past which could benefit the future of the European flat oyster in Wales.