Decarbonization Of Energy System Research Articles

An exploration of the wake of an in-stream water wheel

Research on low-impact, low capital-cost hydropower is increasing as efforts to decarbonise energy systems accelerate. The in-stream water wheel can potentially aid in this decarbonisation effort, but there is little research into the fluid environment around these turbines. This is despite the potential impact that the fluid environment can have on turbine power characteristics and hydrography of the local stream. This paper provides a qualitative analysis of the wake of an in-stream water wheel using dye injection and analysis, supported by quantitative analysis of the near-wake using particle image velocimetry. The results demonstrate that the wake of an in-stream water wheel is primarily characterised by large periodic vortices generated by the shedding of the leading edge vortex as the blade rotates through the fluid, with smaller counter-rotating vortices shed as the local flow angle reverses near the blade entry and exit. The wake maintains a coherent structure three diameters downstream of the turbine, which could potentially impact the power generation of downstream turbines. This wake coherence is largely consistent across different numbers of turbine blades and blade depth ratios.

Hourly electricity CO[formula omitted] intensity profiles based on the real operation of large-scale natural gas combined cycle cogeneration plants

The decarbonization of energy systems is a major challenge that requires complex cross-sectoral strategies that need to be supported by energy modeling. As many technologies rely on electricity, an accurate estimation of its CO2 intensity is of utmost importance for the reliability of modeling results. When electricity is generated from fossil sources, its CO2 intensity depends on several parameters. This research paper presents an hourly calculation of the CO2 intensity of power generation from natural gas combined cycles, based on real data from several years of operation of three plants. As these plants are also operated in combined heat and power mode, two alternative allocation methods are compared. The results confirm the variability of CO2 intensity based on the different operation strategies of the plants and the share of heat and electricity generated. The hourly analysis shows average values in the range of 230–250 gCO2/kWh in winter, rising to around 330–370 gCO2/kWh in summer. The real CO2 intensity profiles presented in this paper can be integrated into energy planning models to improve their ability to estimate the potential benefits of different decarbonization solutions by including the effect of the operational profiles over the day and the year.

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

AbstractGlobal climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long‐term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large‐ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy‐related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno‐economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large‐ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large‐ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

Assessing the energy system's greenhouse emissions via the health of Smart Territories and Cities

The aim of this paper is to understand how the main drivers of air pollution and greenhouse emissions impact public health in a Smart Territory — meaning a technologically integrated city or neighborhood — as well as how to design an optimized energy system model beyond only data by including the holistic experience of its people through phenomenology and ethics. We understand that a Territory and a City is a complex system where mathematical tool modeling known as Design of Experiment (DOE) and its optimization solutions are required to establish causality and identify the variables that have a broader impact on public health so that mortality rates due to air pollution are reduced. DOE's statistical branch is a novel methodology when applied to energy systems and the design of Smart Territories and Cities. Because of it, we have been able to demonstrate how energy emissions, capacity and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) affect the mortality rate and create the foundations for building fully decarbonised energy systems enhanced by mathematical solutions. However, the Cartesian approach of extrapolating from models which align themselves with economic growth alone will not solve the energy dilemma. In fact, the current energy transition project is based on outdated archetypes that lead to scary futures. To course-correct the problematic energy model of a Smart Territory, phenomenologists and creative imagination need to be cultivated and put into action together with mathematical modeling, leading to vectors of positive change and adaptation. Only then might the energy models designed to be reproducible could became ethically virtuous and therefore accepted by the Territory's co-dwellers within the chain of causalities.

Unravelling the discursive dynamics of counternarratives in the Dutch energy transition

Decarbonization of the energy system to combat climate change poses a significant challenge for the Netherlands, often attributed to carbon lock-in: a persistent dependence on fossil fuels shaped by historical forces. Carbon lock-in also occurs at the discursive level, which is why research on sustainability transitions increasingly explores discourses as a crucial element for change. Our research contributes to this knowledge by exploring how counternarratives shape the discursive dynamics surrounding the fossil fuel industry's role in the Dutch energy system. Using an interpretive approach, we examine how the role of Shell, as the ‘epitome’ of the Dutch fossil fuel industry, is framed by both Shell itself and three discursive agents opposing fossil fuel-based pathways. To this end, we reconstruct the counternarratives by Friends of the Earth NL, Follow This, Code Rood and Shell around how they envision the role of Shell in the Dutch energy system, with the goal to identify how discursive agents position their narratives vis-à-vis each other and if coalitions are formed. Our findings reveal that discursive agents deploy a variety of strategic practices to increase the successful reproduction of their narratives: first, Code Rood strategically adopts a radical narrative that stimulates imagination, polarizing the discursive struggle surrounding Shell's role in the energy system. Second, Follow This strategically adopts a marginal narrative, designed to persuade incumbents of alternative interpretations, especially to rethink the profitability of fossil fuels. Third, Friends of the Earth NL and Follow This enhance their discursive agency through coalition building. Since unlocking institutionalized discourses becomes more important, further research should shed light on discursive dynamics within the institutionalized discourse. By offering insights into the pivotal role(s) of counternarratives in instigating discursive change, this study contributes to the growing body of knowledge crucial for accelerating the shift toward a decarbonized energy system.

Governance in multi-system transitions: A new methodological approach for actor involvement in policy making processes

Multi-system interactions associated with the decarbonisation of energy and mobility systems represent a complex phenomenon in the acceleration phase of net-zero transitions. In this paper, we present a novel methodological approach to examine actor involvement in the governance of multi-system transitions, with a focus on the UK's net-zero energy-mobility transitions from 2008 to 2021. Utilising Named Entity Recognition (NER), a natural language processing technique, we systematically map actors and their interactions within policy consultations and how these have changed over time. Our analysis differentiates between single-system and multi-system policy making processes; identifies weak and strong links among actors as two types of multi-system interactions; categorises actors into business, policy, academia, and society groups; and examines the evolution of engagement across multiple governance levels. Our findings indicate an increasing trend of multi-system interactions, suggesting the UK's progression towards the acceleration phase of net-zero transitions. Our analysis further reveals the predominance of policy actors, particularly from the national level, in governing such multi-system transitions processes, followed by business actors. Despite some limitations, our approach offers a scalable method for analysing large volumes of text, providing valuable insights into the governance dynamics of multi-system transitions. We conclude with implications for policy making and offer suggestions for future research, emphasising the importance of understanding actor involvement and political contestations around net-zero trajectories for ensuring the achievement of sustainability goals.

Rooftop PV Potential Determined by Backward Ray Tracing: A Case Study for the German Regions of Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover

ABSTRACTPhotovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost‐potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost‐potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost‐potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. The present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

Resisting renewable energy transitions: Innovation as a moral trope in the US oil and gas industry

This article examines how oil and gas industry participants in Colorado reflect on the potential energy mix of the future. At a time when innovation is a dominant trope that casts entrepreneurs as agents who create dreams and craft worlds, providing the materials, technologies, and processes needed to decarbonize energy systems, my interlocutors also position themselves as experienced innovators. For them, petromodernity is a techno-scientific achievement that crystallizes the successful conjoining of wildcatter risk-taking, geoscientific knowledge, and engineering endeavour. While renewable energy sources now have widespread appeal among politicians, publics, and investors, these industry participants dismiss emerging energy transitions and renewable energy imaginaries. They mock and ridicule renewable energy sources, scorning them for being ‘factually impossible’ due to their lower energy densities relative to oil and gas. Turning to and mobilizing epistemologies of facts, they regard oil and gas as destined to enjoy great longevity. While they see their own industry as a harbinger of innovation, they deem renewable energy industries void of such potential. Exploring these mocking dismissals, this article shows how the oil and gas industry’s history and epistemes inform energy imaginaries and flourish in the championing of what I call ‘nostalgic innovation’. As such, I suggest that innovation is not only a key component in entrepreneurial capitalism, but also a powerful moral commentary on who is seen to deserve to play a key role in future configurations of life.

Risks in the design of regional hydrogen hub systems: A review and commentary.

Early investments in regional hydrogen systems carry two distinct types of risk: (1) economic risk that projects will not be financially viable, resulting in stranded capital, and (2) environmental risk that projects will not deliver deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and through leaks, perhaps even contribute to climate change. This article systematically reviews the literature and performs analysis to describe both types of risk in the context of recent efforts in the United States and worldwide to support the development of "hydrogen hubs" or regional systems of hydrogen production and use. We review estimates of hydrogen production costs and projections of how future costs are likely to change over time for different production routes, environmental impacts related to hydrogen and methane leaks, and the availability and effectiveness of carbon capture and sequestration. Finally, we consider system-wide risks associated with evolving regional industrial structures, including job displacement and underinvestment in shared components, such as refueling. We conclude by suggesting a set of design principles that should be applied in developing early hydrogen hubs if they are to be a successful step toward creating a decarbonized energy system.

Land competition and its impact on decarbonized energy systems: A case study for Germany

In densely populated countries, land competition is a key challenge in light of a growing population and the land-intensive decarbonization of energy supply. We apply an energy system model using linear optimization to Germany as an example for a densely populated and industrialized nation with a high energy demand to show how land competition affects the economics of land-intensive renewable energies. Bioenergy crops are currently cultivated on 6.5% of Germany’s land area. We find that allocating only 6% of the total land to the future energy system, which is even less than the current allocation to bioenergy crops, allows for a system that is close to the cost-minimum that we calculate when not restricting the land area. This 6% of the land area is divided into 4% for photovoltaics (PV), 2% for onshore wind and 0% for bioenergy crops. This would save 15billion€/a (15.1%) relative to the system that matches current political targets for utility-scale PV. For areas exceeding this 6%, we find that the most cost-efficient utilization comes from bioenergy crops, but they only add value to the energy system if there is plenty of land available. The value of land to the energy system is at least twice as high for 0% remaining emissions when compared to the case of 10% remaining green house gas emissions, although both scenarios are separated by less than five years according to current German law. Both our findings underline that considering the value of land as early as possible is necessary when developing state policies that shall lead to cost-efficient renewable energy systems.

The future of geoenergy – a perspective

Energy from Earth resources (geoenergy) in the form of coal, oil and gas has fuelled the global society since the Industrial Revolution began. Amongst the consequences of fuelling society and associated population growth, is climate change, driven by the emission of greenhouse gases liberated through unabated combustion of fossil fuels. There is much more to Earth energy systems, however, than just coal oil and gas. The Earth contains, in human terms, an unlimited supply of accessible heat and pressure (differences), as well as copious quantities of storage space, non-hydrocarbon gases and valuable solutes. These resources can be targeted to provide sustainable energy sources with low to zero carbon footprints. This report does not contain any new radical technologies that will deliver energy free from all environmental impacts but it does show that, when considering geoenergy, society needs to look at the whole system, which combines chemical, thermal, potential, kinetic, gravitational and other energy forms that could be used from individual developments to minimize waste, maximize efficiency and reduce unwanted impacts. We demonstrate that geoenergy will continue to play a key role in decarbonized energy systems for centuries to come.

Strategic management of CO2: A scalable model for CCS in decarbonised societies

In future decarbonised energy systems, residual carbon emissions require strategic planning and management. In environmental management, an evaluation of carbon removal considering local geographic frameworks is needed. This paper introduces a scalable and adaptable model for evaluating the economics and geography of future carbon capture and storage (CCS) configurations across geographical scales, covering capture, transport, and storage of carbon. The model is applied to the North Denmark Region, showing that future energy production carbon sources will be concentrated in Thisted and Jammerbugt, while industrial sources remain in Aalborg and Rebild municipalities. Carbon transport configurations, including truck, pipeline, and shipping are assessed, for the carbon to be stored in onshore and offshore geological storages. The regional scale findings suggest that pipelines and onshore storage provide the most economical configuration. However, a sensitivity study using a smaller geographical scope indicates potential for optimising carbon transport by evaluating both carbon volume and distance. The paper discusses how the model's flexibility and scalability enable the integration of alternate cost components, thereby supporting the calculation of the carbon repurposing potentials, including carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) configurations.

Flexibility exploitation in Net-Zero Energy Factories. A technical and economic study case for dairy systems located in Central and South Europe

The decarbonization of energy systems (electric, thermal, gas, and transportation) requires flexibility to integrate power generated by volatile and renewable energy sources (vRES). Industrial systems can contribute to exploiting the flexibility needed to integrate the electricity generated by vRES into energy systems. Designing industrial systems as Net-Zero Energy Factories (NZEF) offers the possibility of exploiting the flexibility that could be used internally to integrate the power generated by renewable energy sources. This study addresses, on one hand, the presentation of a methodology to identify and quantify the flexibility potential of continuous processes typical in dairy systems. On the other hand, it aims to demonstrate a methodology for designing additional flexibility options to operate dairy systems as NZEF. A model has been developed in which the energetic and material flows of conventional diary systems are simulated. The model allows for the design of conventional dairy systems as NZEF and the evaluation of their potential to exploit flexibility. Two different European climate zones have been investigated: Bari (Italy) and Magdeburg (Germany). This study is relevant for designers and facility managers who are following their decarbonization plans, aiming to operate their industrial facility as Net-Zero Energy. The results of this study show that for dairy systems designed as Net-Zero Energy Factories and located in southern Europe (Bari, Italy), the operational costs are much lower than those operating in central Europe (Magdeburg, Germany). Specifically, integrating an 800 kW PV system reduced operational costs by 16.3 % in Bari, compared to 3.8 % in Magdeburg. Additionally, achieving 97 % vRES integration in Bari requires a 1000 kWh thermal storage capacity, whereas in Magdeburg, a 500 kWh capacity is sufficient. These findings suggest that NZEF designs can be optimized based on regional climatic conditions to maximize cost efficiency and vRES integration. The analysis indicates that sensible heat storage systems should be preferred over electrochemical batteries when designing additional flexibility options, considering both technical and economic criteria.

Comparison of different drivers on energy systems investment dynamics to achieve the energy transition goals

The signing of the Paris Agreement represents a consensus on limiting the increase of the average global temperature compared to the preindustrial period. The European Union has set an ambitious goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. By 2030, the European Commission's REPowerEU plan aims to accelerate the processes of increasing the share of renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, reducing energy use, and, at the same time, diversifying energy sources and increasing electricity connectivity between member states.In order to achieve the stated goals, future energy systems will be based on renewable energy sources, which are characterized by production variability. Such systems require flexibilization technologies that ensure security and stability of supply. In this study, an analysis of how different fuel and technology costs, as well as policy targets, influence the pace of the energy transition dynamic was made on the case study of Croatia, as there was no such previous investigation. Therefore, the goal of the research is to identify the most prominent driver to achieve energy transition targets in Croatia, with an emphasis on the required flexibilization technologies. The investigation has been implemented in the energy planning tool H2RES, a detailed open-source long-term optimization model in a five-year step model based on scenario analysis of different RES and CO2 targets, technology costs, and fuel prices. The results reveal a need for an ambitious energy policy if the goal is to achieve full energy system decarbonization. Currently, high carbon prices and lower technology costs won't be enough to lead the energy transition, without legislative support.

Broaden sustainable design and optimization of decarbonized campus Energy systems with scope 3 emissions accounting and social ramification analysis

A holistic approach that considers economic, environmental, and social dimensions is crucial for informed and responsible decision-making in energy system decarbonization. Integrating techno-economic, environmental, and social perspectives, we propose a multi-objective optimization framework for the sustainable design of decarbonized campus energy systems, resonating with the tri-fold principles of Corporate Social Responsibility. This comprehensive approach reveals the techno-economic intricacies inherent in adopting renewable solutions to accommodate cooling, heat, and power demand on university campuses. Our proposed model endeavors to minimize both total annualized costs and the broader spectrum of emissions (Scope 1, 2, and 3) in pursuit of environmental justice. Meanwhile, by merging life cycle assessment (LCA) with economic input-output analysis based on established social LCA databases, we can gauge the potential social impacts associated with these sustainability initiatives. The results serve as a roadmap for designing and operating truly sustainable campus energy systems, pinpointing environmental concerns, suggesting remedial strategies, and spotlighting the resultant social consequences. To showcase the tangible applicability of this holistic modeling framework, we have used real-world data from the main campus of Cornell University, Ithaca, New York State, to develop a case study. Our results show that with a plentiful biogas supply, it is possible to reduce yearly GHG emissions by more than 70%. Even when procurement emissions are left out, Scope 3 emissions still represent 69–82% of the total GHG emissions, dominated by the transportation sector. Turning to sustainable transport options, such as electric vehicles (EVs), can markedly lower these figures. On the socio-economic front, ramping up geothermal drilling could intensify negative social consequences, such as risk of forced labor, conflicts, accidents, and natural disasters, by 29%. These are primarily due to safety issues and the labor demands of earth source heat site preparation, encompassing risks such as forced labor and accidents. As the push for energy decarbonization grows stronger, it is imperative to weigh these downsides against the broader social benefits.

Water throughout the green energy transition: Hydrosocial dimensions of coal, natural gas, and lithium

AbstractEnergy transitions are reshaping hydrosocial relations. How they will be reshaped, however, depends on location and water's material relationship to other resources and industrial activities embedded within energy transitions. To highlight this, we focus on three different resources—coal, natural gas, and lithium—to signal how the water–energy nexus will be reworked in a transition away from fossil fuels. We examine the water–coal nexus as an example of a resource relationship that is transitioning out, or that is being moved away from in the green energy transition. Natural gas represents the “bridge fuel” used through the transition. Lithium illustrates a resource inside the green transition, as it is a fundamental material for green technologies in the transition to a low‐carbon future. Coal, natural gas, and lithium each have their own material impacts to water resources that stem from their industrial lifecycle and different implications for communities shaped by coal, natural gas, and lithium activities. To explore this, we review each of these resources' connection to water, their legal and regulatory dimensions, and their impact on communities and water justice. We argue that the energy transition is also a hydrosocial transition that will create uneven water‐related benefits and burdens. To maximize sustainability and equity, efforts to decarbonize energy systems must examine the localized, place‐based hydrosocial relations that differentially affect communities.This article is categorized under: Engineering Water &gt; Planning Water Human Water &gt; Water Governance Human Water &gt; Rights to Water

New triazinephosphonate dopants for Nafion proton exchange membranes (PEM).

A new paradigm for energy is underway demanding decarbonized energy systems. Some of them rely on emerging electrochemical devices, crucial in hydrogen technologies, including fuel cells, CO2 and water electrolysers, whose applications and performances depend on key components such as their separators/ion-exchange membranes. The most studied and already commercialized Nafion membrane shows great chemical stability, but its water content limits its high proton conduction to a limited range of operating temperatures. Here, we report the synthesis of a new series of triazinephosphonate derivatives and their use as dopants in the preparation of new modified Nafion membranes. The triazinephosphonate derivatives were prepared by substitution of chlorine atoms in cyanuric chloride. Diverse conditions were used to obtain the trisubstituted (4-hydroxyphenyl)triazinephosphonate derivatives and the (4-aminophenyl)triazinephosphonate derivatives, but with these amino counterparts, only the disubstituted compounds were obtained. The new modified Nafion membranes were prepared by casting incorporation of the synthesized 1,3,5-triazinephosphonate (TPs) derivatives. The evaluation of the proton conduction properties of the new membranes and relative humidity (RH) conditions and at 60 °C, showed that they present higher proton conductivities than the prepared Nafion membrane and similar or better proton conductivities than commercial Nafion N115, in the same experimental conditions. The Nafion-doped membrane with compound TP2 with a 1.0 wt % loading showed the highest proton conductivity with 84 mS·cm-1.

Scenarios on future electricity storage requirements in the Austrian electricity system with high shares of variable renewables

This paper presents three scenarios (policy, renewables and electrification and efficiency) for transitioning to a 100 % renewable electricity sector in Austria, based predominantly on wind and photovoltaics, alongside sector-specific electrification. Considering renewable expansion targets and three distinctive weather years from an overall system perspective, the core objective is to minimize variable costs of electricity storage and dispatchable power plants. The model developed determines their optimal dispatch for meeting the underlying electricity demand each hour. Within the scenarios for renewable expansion, a special focus lies on integrating short-duration (batteries), medium-duration (pumped storage hydro) and long-duration (hydrogen) energy storage. Our analysis reveals the significant impact of weather patterns on renewable electricity generation, particularly the differences between winter and summer generation quantities. This necessitates seasonal balancing and the mitigation of extremes like low wind power events, which require corresponding backup capacities. This contrast is particularly evident when comparing the years 2030–2050, wherein in the latter, certain dispatchable generators are only utilized in one of the three underlying weather years during extreme weather conditions. In our paper, we demonstrate how, especially for hydrogen production and storage, weather conditions influence production levels and the re-electrification demand. The results indicate the feasibility of achieving a fully decarbonized energy system in Austria through suitable policy measures and expanded renewable generation, with long-duration storage playing a crucial role in seasonal balance and compensating for the absence of fossil fuel generation. Strategic planning is essential to aligning the expansion of renewable energy generation with the necessary flexibility.

Planning natural gas supply chain pathways for energy system decarbonisation: An Australian case study

The future role of natural gas systems in a deeply decarbonised world is very uncertain. This work seeks to characterise the changes that the clean energy transition is likely to induce in the natural gas chain, across extraction and transmission, distribution networks and gas consumption/use trends, for various scenarios with different demand and supply drivers. First, the results of a least-cost macro-scale energy system planning optimisation are explored to identify future natural gas demand and supply requirements. Second, those findings are used as inputs to a detailed analysis of the full gas supply chain, from extraction to final use, to examine the evolution of i) stored resource levels; ii) transmission and distribution networks operation and financing; and iii) required capacity and siting of gas generation; all, with a realistic account of the related infrastructure. Australia is investigated as a case study that relies on natural gas for both domestic and export purposes. Results project a shift towards a more localised gas consumption to be largely supplied by fewer basins, with associated potential transmission and extraction bottlenecks. They anticipate an overall less utilised, ageing distribution network with potential challenges to asset reliability and financing. Finally, they demonstrate both the scheduled and early retirement of fossil generation assets can allow the siting of considerable amounts of new gas power firming capacity on brownfield sites, thus offering an opportunity to reduce total system costs.