Decade Of Decline Research Articles

After a Decade of Decline, the US Undocumented Population Increased by 650,000 in 2022

Executive Summary This report describes estimates of the undocumented population residing in the United States in 2022 compiled by the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS). The estimates are based on data collected in the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the US Census Bureau ( Ruggles et al. 2023 ). The report finds that the undocumented population grew from 10.3 million in 2021 to 10.9 million in 2022, an increase of 650,000. The increase reverses more than a decade of gradual decline. The undocumented populations from 10 countries increased by a total of 525,000: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and India; El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras in Central America; and Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela in South America. The undocumented population in Florida increased by about 125,000 in 2022, Texas increased by 60,000, New York by 50,000, and Maryland by 45,000. The report explains why undocumented population growth is much less than the number of apprehensions by DHS. Finally, the Appendix provides a detailed description of the CMS methodology.

Is there a relationship between housing deprivation and crime? Evidence for the Spanish case

Purpose Crime increased in Spain during the period of 2017–2019 after a decade of decline. This coincides with severe housing deprivation multiplying by three in just four years, affecting 3.4% of the population in 2020. However, no research has been found that analyzes whether this deterioration of the physical conditions of housing and its environmental elements has impacted the level of crime in Spain. This study aims to analyze how housing deprivation affects crime in the Spanish context. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, different items that are considered by Eurostat as elements of housing deprivation are used. The difference generalized method of moments estimator is used for 16 Spanish regions that comprises the period from 2013 to 2019. Findings The results suggest that certain structural and environmental elements of housing are positively associated with crime: space (0.5% and 0.4%) and high housing expenditure (0.4% and 0.5%) are positively correlated with the two dependent variables; the lack of light and overcrowding stand out as they establish a positive and statistically significant association with four out of the six analyzed crime categories; the absence of lighting effect reaches up to 1.8% and 1.7% in the case of violent robberies and vehicle theft, respectively. Finally, pollution is negatively associated with robbery with violence (−1.9%), theft (−0.7%) and robbery with force (−0.5%). Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that examines whether this deterioration of the physical conditions of housing has impacted the level of crime in Spain. It is also pioneering at the European level by using nonmonetary dimensions of inequality such as housing.

Access to Youth Work

After decade of decline, there are signs that increased investment in youth services and attention by policymakers will boost provision and the workforce to meet a growing demand from young people

Explaining accruals quality over time

We provide evidence that accruals quality in the U.S. has generally improved since 2000, following a decade of decline during the 1990s. Our results indicate that both the initial decline in accruals quality and the subsequent reversal can be explained by an inverse relation with operating cash flow volatility. Moreover, even though patterns of cash flow volatility and accruals quality vary in different regions of the world and relative to the U.S., we find evidence of an inverse relation between accruals quality and cash flow volatility globally. We corroborate our main results in a battery of additional tests, which also indicate that our results are not attributable to other explanations. Overall, our evidence challenges conventional wisdom and suggests that concerns about a sustained decline in accruals quality over time are unwarranted.

A Decade of Decline in Serious Cognitive Problems Among Older Americans: A Population-Based Study of 5.4 Million Respondents.

Numerous studies suggest the prevalence of dementia has decreased over the past several decades in Western countries. Less is known about whether these trends differ by gender or age cohort, and if generational differences in educational attainment explain these trajectories. 1) To detect temporal trends in the age-sex-race adjusted prevalence of serious cognitive problems among Americans aged 65+; 2) To establish if these temporal trends differ by gender and age cohort; 3) To examine if these temporal trends are attenuated by generational differences in educational attainment. Secondary analysis of 10 years of annual nationally representative data from the American Community Survey with 5.4 million community-dwelling and institutionalized older adults aged 65+. The question on serious cognitive problems was, "Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does this person have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions?" The prevalence of serious cognitive problems in the US population aged 65 and older declined from 12.2% to 10.0% between 2008 and 2017. Had the prevalence remained at the 2008 levels, there would have been an additional 1.13 million older Americans with serious cognitive problems in 2017. The decline in memory problems across the decade was higher for women (23%) than for men (13%). Adjusting for education substantially attenuated the decline. Between 2008 and 2017, the prevalence of serious cognitive impairment among older Americans declined significantly, although these declines were partially attributable to generational differences in educational attainment.

Dynamic implications of GDP, interest rates, taxes, income, foreign direct investments, housing prices on property NPLs

PurposeThe study on how macroeconomic factors affect non-performing loans (NPLs) have not been focussed on property loans, which had been amongst the largest contributor of NPLs in many countries. At the same time, whilst there are many studies that focusses on NPLs during the recession and financial crises, not many studies focus on how macroeconomic factors affect property NPLs in a recovering economic environment. The purpose of this study seeks to fill the gap by analysing the relationships between gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, income, foreign direct investments (FDI), housing prices and taxes on property NPLs with Malaysia as a case study in which NPLs rose for the first time after declining for almost a decade since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. This study aims to understand the dynamics and direction of causation in relationships.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the auto regressive distribution lag analysis between the independent variables of GDP, interest rates, housing prices, service taxes, percapita income and FDI affecting the dependent variable of property NPLs from 2009 to 2017, during a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time in almost a decade of decline.FindingsThis study found that interest rates, housing prices, income, GDP and service taxes were found to possess long cause effects and long run elasticity with NPLs. At the same time, interest rates were found to implicate property NPLs significantly in longer periods, followed by GDP, housing prices, service taxes and income. FDIs were found to be insignificantly negative in implicating property NPLs in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper allows policymakers to understand the dynamic implications of crucial macroeconomic factors in affecting NPLs so that appropriate strategic monetary policies could be formulated towards addressing them. More focus shall be given to addressing the long term implications of these factors on NPLs.Practical implicationsAppropriate strategic monetary policy making can be channelled towards addressing these factors via understanding the short and long term implications of macroeconomic variables on property NPLs. Policymakers can take note of the long cause effects and long run elasticity of average interest rates, housing prices, income levels, GDP and service taxes with property NPLs so that appropriate long term policies can be addressed to control the rise of property NPLs in the country. At the same time, priority should be given towards strengthening of the GDP of the country due to its strongest impact in long term effects with reduction of NPLs in the country.Social implicationsThe insights from the present study suggest policymakers interested in bringing stability in the real estate finance system need to account for the various macroeconomic variables found in this study.Originality/valueThe paper is novel on at least two dimensions. First, this study involves focussing on a unique period of recovering economic environment where NPLs rose for the first time after a decade of decline since recovering from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. At the same time, this study focusses on property NPLs, which is unique in nature compared to general NPLs. This study had enabled policymakers to better understand the dynamic implications of several macroeconomic variables affecting property NPLs and assist them in strategic monetary policy making.

A decade of decline: Grant funding for researchers with disabilities 2008 to 2018.

Recent data highlights an imbalance in research grant success among groups underrepresented within the biomedical workforce, including racial/ethnic minorities and women. However, there is no data on grant success for researchers with disabilities.For these analyses, aggregate data on self-reported disability status for National Institute on Health (NIH) research grant applicants and awardees was obtained from 2008 to 2018, including disability category: mobility/orthopedic, hearing, visual disabilities, and other disabilities. The percentage of applications and awards, as well as grant success rates (% of applicants receiving awards), by Principal Investigators (PIs) disability status were calculated. Data was desegregated, and logistic models determined trend of applicants reporting disability over time. The percentage of NIH grant applicants with PIs reporting a disability significantly declined from 1.9% in 2008, to 1.2% in 2018 (p<0.001). Data on grant awardees was similar, 1.9% of awards in 2008, declining to 1.2% in 2018 (p<0.001) had PIs reporting a disability. Across all years, the percentage of applications and awards with PIs reporting visual disabilities was lower than the percentage reporting mobility/orthopedic, or hearing disabilities (16.5%, 34.2%, and 37.8% in 2008, respectively). Overall grant success rates differed by disability status (27.2% for those reporting disability vs 29.7% in those reporting no disability, p<0.001). The lowest overall grant success rate was among PIs reporting unknown disability status or who withheld this status (18.6%). These results underscore the underrepresentation of researchers with disabilities among grant applicants and awardees, and indicate lower grant success rates among PIs reporting disabilities.

Institutional Variations in Faculty Demographic Profiles

This paper proposes that many of the academic, financial and management challenges facing higher education are the result of a group of inter-related financial and demographic variables which are combining to produce a "ratchet" effect. Each twist of the ratchet reduces the institutional flexibility necessary for making adaptive responses with respect to revenue and expenses, renewal, and diversity which are required to avoid a further tightening of the ratchet. Another decade of decline may be ahead for Canadian Universities unless the dynamic interplay of the variables responsible for the ratchet can be reversed. Toward this end, the methodology of "institutional variations" is proposed, and is illustrated through an analysis of the faculty demographic profiles of nine Canadian universities. The proposed methodology requires focusing on collecting specific, descriptive information about individual institutions, rather than the usual strategy of collecting normative, aggregated information about higher education in general.

The Current State of Counternarcotics Policy and Drug Reform Debates in Myanmar

AbstractMyanmar is the world’s second largest producer of opium after Aghanistan. Following a decade of decline, cultivation has more than doubled since 2006. The production and use of amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS) is also rising. Most of the opium is turned into heroin and exported via neighboring countries, especially to China. Decades of civil war and military rule have stimulated drug production and consumption, and marginalized ethnic communities. Myanmar has high levels of injecting drug users infected with HIV/AIDS and hepatitis C. Drug policies in Myanmar are repressive and outdated, with an ineffective focus on arresting drug users and eradicating poppy fields. The central government is unable to provide quality treatment for drug users. Past political repression and human rights violations by the military government caused an international boycott which prevented international donors from providing assistance. The reform process by the new quasi-civilian government includes both a peace process to end the civil war and a review of the country’s drug laws, raising hope for more effective and humane drug policies.

After Decade of Decline, Abortion Rates Flatten Worldwide

After Decade of Decline, Abortion Rates Flatten Worldwide

An Assessment of the Downturn in the Forest Products Sector in the Northern Region of the United States

The forest industry within the northern region of the U.S. has declined notably in employment, mill numbers, wood consumption, and forest harvests since 2000...a downturn exacerbated by the recession of 2007 to 2009. Longer term industrial decline (since 2000) has been evidenced by reductions in secondary products (e.g., furniture) and print paper manufacturing which can be attributed, respectively, to the lack of global competitiveness due to high U.S. wages and ascent of electronic media. In contrast, shorter term (since 2008), yet sharper declines occurred in industries such as composite panel production that serve the housing industry. Despite a decade of decline, there are future opportunities for this region's forest industry. The region's forests are predominantly within private ownership and represent tremendous volumes of some of the world's most valuable sawtimber (e.g., select hardwoods). Coupled with this natural resource is a present, but underutilized industry with excess capacity and a skilled work force. As evidenced by recent trends in positive trade balances, the decline of the northern region's forest industry may be mitigated with a focus on new markets (e.g., wood energy) and balancing increased export of unfinished products (e.g., logs) with increased use of the region's skilled secondary product workforce (e.g., increasing international competiveness of U.S. production).

From the editor

We are, in the UK, a growing population. After a decade of decline, the number of young children being born is rising sharply.

Bubbles in Real Estate? A Longer-Term Comparative Analysis of Housing Prices in Europe and the Us

It is now generally agreed that housing markets constitute a key determinant of domestic demand. Policy-makers and market participants routinely add a health warning to their outlooks for the US and global economy related to the US housing market, based on the assumption that growth in US domestic demand will slow down dramatically once housing prices start to decelerate. It is generally assumed that the eurozone does not face a similar prospect, because areas of ‘froth’ (Spain, for example) co-exist alongside areas of declining prices (Germany). This note presents a composite indicator for euro area housing prices and compares its evolution over the long run with that of the US. The main findings are quite simple: 1) The euro area aggregate index of real housing prices has risen almost as much as that of the US and is now (together with that of the US) about 40% above its 30-year average. This is almost exactly equal to the overvaluation of Japanese real estate at the height of the Japanese bubble, which was then followed by a decade of decline.

The Clinical Analysis of General Paresis With 5 Cases

The Clinical Analysis of General Paresis With 5 Cases

Trends in workplace homicides in the U.S., 1993–2002: A decade of decline

Trends in workplace homicide rates are compared to the trends in U.S. homicides from 1993 to 2002, inclusively. The homogeneity of workplace homicide rates by victim demographics, circumstances, and types of events are also addressed. Using publicly available data from several sources, Poisson models are used to statistically compare the trends of workplace homicide rates versus U.S. homicide rates and to compare trends within categories of workplace homicides. Overall, there was a significant decline in the rates of occupational homicide of approximately 6% per year during the study time period; this decline was found to be statistically greater than the decline of all U.S. homicides (5% per year). Taxi cab drivers and chauffeurs demonstrated the greatest decline of all occupational subgroups. When looking at the circumstances of workplace homicides, only the rate of homicides committed during a robbery or other crime demonstrated a significant decline. While workplace homicides have declined in the U.S., the declines have not occurred uniformly across demographic and occupational categories.

Threat and response: A decade of decline in a regionally endangered rainforest palm affected by fire and introduced animals

The wild population of the palm Ptychosperma macarthurii near Darwin, in monsoonal northern Australia, is regionally endangered and provides a focus to illustrate a range of issues pertinent to conservation of rainforest habitat. Surveys in 1990 found that several populations exhibited a polarised size class structure typified by large adults and small juvenile plants. Over the following decade, in the absence of wildfire and in a period of reduced disturbance from introduced buffalo ( Bubalus bubalis), cattle ( Bos indicus) and pig ( Sus scrofa), sufficient small juvenile plants survived and grew so as to infill the intermediate size classes. Three stage (bifid, juvenile and adult) transition matrix models characterised the population as declining under all observed conditions (intrinsic rate of increase: unburnt + few animals 0.9850; unburnt + many animals 0.9584; burnt <1 year 0.8737; burnt 1–2 years 0.9146; burnt >2 years 0.9937). In the absence of fire, simulations conducted to explore management options revealed a positive rate of increase with exclusion of introduced animals. With only partial introduced animal control or supplementation with juvenile plants, the median rate of increase remained negative. The regional population is at risk by more frequent and more intense fire due to the invasion of exotic grass species and land use changes in the catchment which result in an increased drying of the rainforest habitat. Ongoing decline is the most likely outcome in the absence of effective management intervention.

A decade of decline

A decade of decline

A Decade of Decline: An Analysis of Medicare Reimbursement for Vascular Surgical Procedures

Despite inflation and a robust economy, standard Medicare reimbursements for vascular surgical procedures have progressively declined. The objective of this analysis was to quantitatively and objectively evaluate the decline of vascular surgical reimbursement over the past decade. In this study, data for the analysis of specific vascular surgical procedures was obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics-National Hospital Discharge Survey (NCHS-NHDS) for all vascular procedures as reported by ICD-9-CM codes. The average Medicare reimbursement for each of the specified procedures for 1990 was compared to that of 2001 and the percent change in average reimbursement over this period was calculated. Comparisons between 1990 and 2001 dollar amounts were made after correction for inflation using the consumer price index. This correction factor allows for the calculation of the actual percentage reduction in "real dollars" that is reflected in buying power. We found significant decreases in Medicare reimbursement for each of the vascular procedures included in this analysis. Despite national economic prosperity, there was an average 41% decrease in the buying power per case for vascular surgical procedures over the past decade. We feel that these reductions in reimbursement are overzealous and need to be reexamined.

A Decade of Decline and Evolution in Agricultural Economics Enrollments and Programs, 1985-96

North American university departments of agricultural economics were surveyed regarding enrollment, curricula, budget and related issues. Average undergraduate enrollments declined over the last eleven years, reversing the upward trend of the previous decade. Graduate enrollments have remained remarkably stable for the past two decades. In response to declining enrollments and budgets, many departments have changed their name and/or curriculum to attract domestic students who are not interested in production agriculture. Colleges of agriculture have, on average, increased their total enrollments by diversifying their programs. This reverses a trend of declining enrollment that had existed for nearly two decades.

Dynamic International Oil Markets: Oil Market Developments and Structure 1860-1990; The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline

Dynamic International Oil Markets: Oil Market Developments and Structure 1860-1990; The Oil Market in the 1980s: A Decade of Decline