Decadal Time Scales Research Articles

On the Bruun Rule suitability for modelling shoreline change

Modelling and understanding shoreline response to sea-level rise over decadal to centennial timescales is crucial for managing sandy coasts. Globally, the Bruun Rule is one of the most common shoreline model applied to facilitate this. However, there are several limitations to the Bruun Rule, which can compromise coastal management decisions. Here, we provide a novel assessment of the suitability of the Bruun Rule for application in sandy coasts by applying it to hindcast and project shoreline change in three morphologically different sandy beaches over yearly and decadal timescales. We also compare the Bruun Rule predictions against associated observations, published predictions from a hybrid shoreline model, and historical shoreline changes. Results show that the Bruun Rule fails to accurately hindcast and provide realistic projections of future shoreline change in sandy coasts. We attribute this to the Bruun Rule's assumption of linearity between shoreline retreat and relative sea-level rise and its inability to account for nearshore circulation. We, therefore, recommend limiting the use of the Bruun Rule for informing policy and the management of sandy coasts.

On the origin of alkali feldspar megacrysts in granitoids. Part 2: evidence for nucleation and growth under magmatic conditions from crystal size distributions of the Cathedral Peak Granodiorite, California, USA

The mechanisms whereby alkali feldspar megacrysts form have been debated for several decades; yet, we do not understand well the processes that lead to their formation. We take advantage of glacially polished outcrop surfaces from the Cathedral Peak Granodiorite in the Tuolumne Intrusive Complex, CA to quantitatively characterize alkali feldspar textures, to provide better insight into their origin. On the glacially polished surfaces, we traced alkali feldspar crystals > 10 mm in the field. From the same localities, we also collected large slabs and stained them to reveal feldspar textures for crystals < 20 mm in size. We scaned the resulting field tracings and rock slabs to quantify CSDs using image processing techniques with the software ImageJ. The CSDs from glacially polished outcrop surfaces and complementary polished and stained rock slabs reveal two stages of crystallization. Crystals > 20 mm show log-linear CSDs with shallow slopes, suggesting magmatic nucleation and growth on timescales of thousands of years. Crystals < 20 mm define a second stage of crystallization, with much steeper slopes, suggesting a period of enhanced nucleation leading to formation of a groundmass during the final stages of solidification on timescales of decades to centuries. We do not find any evidence for CSDs affected by textural coarsening, or any effects of subsolidus processes. Our data suggest that these megacrysts form in large, slowly cooling magma, where low nucleation rates dominate. These crystals are not special in their magmatic formation—only in their size. A change in solidification conditions led to the formation of a groundmass, which warrants further study to better understand this crystallization stage in a plutonic environment.

Examining 22 Years of Ambient Seismic Wavefield at Mount St. Helens

Abstract An increase in seismic activity precedes most volcanic eruptions. Whereas event-based forecasting approaches have been successful, some eruptions remain unanticipated, resulting in casualties and damage. Our study leverages the recent advancements in ambient field seismology. We explore features extracted from continuous ambient fields using traditional methods, for example, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, root mean square, root median square, real-time seismic amplitude measurement, and novel methods (displacement seismic amplitude ratio and spectral width). In addition, we explore unsupervised learning of higher order wavelet features using scattering networks. We find that combining all the methods was necessary to disentangle the effects of seismic sources from structural changes at Mount St. Helens. Although the ambient wavefield-based approach does not yield additional or more significant precursory signals than event-based methods at Mount St. Helens, our study demonstrates that the ambient wavefield provides supplementary information, mainly about structural changes and complements traditional methods. The ambient seismic wavefield offers additional insights into long-lasting processes. We find enhanced wave attenuation correlating with geochemical measurements. We interpret this as ongoing structural changes, such as dome growth or the evolution of the volcanic conduit system. On annual and decadal timescales, we interpret seasonal seismic attenuation in the shallow subsurface as groundwater fluctuations, corroborated by observations at the nearby Spirit Lake level. This multimethod approach at Mount St. Helens sheds light on a volcanic system’s underlying dynamics and structure.

Regional Variation in Extratropical North Atlantic Air‐Sea Interaction 1960–2020

AbstractAir‐sea interaction in late boreal winter is studied over the extratropical North Atlantic (NA) during 1960–2020 by examining the relationship between sea‐surface temperature (SST) and total turbulent heat flux (THF). The two quantities are positively correlated on interannual timescales over the central‐midlatitude and subpolar NA, suggesting the atmosphere on average drives SST and THF variability is independent of SST. On decadal timescales and over the central‐midlatitude NA the correlation is negative, suggesting ocean processes on average drive SST and THF variability is sensitive to SST. The correlation is positive over the subpolar NA. There, interannual and decadal THF variability is governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the major late 20th and early 21st century SST increase in the subpolar NA diminishing oceanic heat loss associated with a weakening NAO was observed. This study suggests that the atmosphere is more sensitive to SST over the central‐midlatitude than subpolar NA.

Anomalously weak intensity of tropical cyclones striking eastern China over the past two millennia

Anthropogenic climate warming is predicted to increase the intensity of global tropical cyclones (TCs) on decadal timescales, known as the ‘temperature-TC intensity’ paradigm. However, no proxy is currently available to directly quantify TC intensity in the northwestern Pacific region over centennial to millennial timescales. Here, we reconstruct the intensity of past TCs inferred from event-beds detected in two sedimentary systems in eastern China spanning approximately 1910 to 645 yr BP using an instrumental-calibrated technique, thereby encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the paradigm in the time domain. Intriguingly, our two intensity indices, based on flooding depth and wind speed, provide the initial quantitative evidence that TC intensity in eastern China has been anomalously weak since around 1485 ± 45 yr BP, with a reduction of approximately 30 ± 8% in intensity, despite no concurrent temperature shift. This reduction appears to have been pre-conditioned by a combined influence of a weaker El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and an increased level of Saharan dust. We suggest that the magnitudes of these factors may have crossed a tipping point and have not reverted to their pre-shift levels since that time, resulting in their impact on TC intensity exceeding that of temperature by triggering changes in the oceanic and atmospheric state within the tropical Pacific region where TCs originate.

Primordial gravitational waves assisted by cosmological scalar perturbations

Primordial gravitational waves are a crucial prediction of inflation theory, and their detection through their imprints on the cosmic microwave background is actively being pursued. However, these attempts have not yet been successful. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to detect primordial gravitational waves by searching for a signal of second-order tensor perturbations. These perturbations were produced due to nonlinear couplings between the linear tensor and scalar perturbations in the early universe. We anticipate a blue-tilted tensor spectral index, and suggest that the tensor-to-scalar ratio can potentially be measured with high precision using a detector network composed of the ground-based Einstein Telescope and the space-borne LISA project on a decade timescale.

Combining Neural Networks and CMIP6 Simulations to Learn Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Prediction of Multiyear Sea Surface Temperature Variability

AbstractWe use neural networks and large climate model ensembles to explore predictability of internal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on interannual (1–3 years) and decadal (1–5 and 3–7 years) timescales. We find that neural networks can skillfully predict SST anomalies at these lead times, especially in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, Tropical Pacific, Tropical Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The spatial patterns of SST predictability vary across the nine climate models studied. The neural networks identify “windows of opportunity” where future SST anomalies can be predicted with more certainty. Neural networks trained on climate models also make skillful SST predictions in reconstructed observations, although the skill varies depending on which climate model the network was trained. Our results highlight that neural networks can identify predictable internal variability within existing climate data sets and show important differences in how well patterns of SST predictability in climate models translate to the real world.

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (&gt;8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Characterising HIV-1 transmission in Victoria, Australia: a molecular epidemiological study

In Australia the incidence of HIV has declined steadily, yet sustained reduction of HIV transmission in this setting requires improved public health responses. As enhanced public health responses and prioritisation of resources may be guided by molecular epidemiological data, here we aimed to assess the applicability of these approaches in Victoria, Australia. A comprehensive collection of HIV-1 pol sequences from individuals diagnosed with HIV in Victoria, Australia, between January 1st 2000 and December 31st 2020 were deidentified and used as the basis of our assessment. These sequences were subtyped and surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) identified, before definition of transmission groups was performed using HIV-TRACE (0.4.4). Phylodynamic methods were applied using BEAST (2.6.6), assessing effective reproductive numbers for large groups, and additional demographic data were integrated to provide a high resolution view of HIV transmission in Victoria on a decadal time scale. Based on standard settings for HIV-TRACE, 70% (2438/3507) of analysed HIV-1 pol sequences were readily assigned to a transmission group. Individuals in transmission groups were more commonly males (aOR 1.50), those born in Australia (aOR 2.13), those with probable place of acquisition as Victoria (aOR 6.73), and/or those reporting injectable drug use (aOR 2.13). SDRMs were identified in 375 patients (10.7%), with sustained transmission of these limited to a subset of smaller groups. Informative patterns of epidemic growth, stabilisation, and decline were observed; many transmission groups showed effective reproductive numbers (R e ) values reaching greater than 4.0, representing considerable epidemic growth, while others maintained low R e values. This study provides a high resolution view of HIV transmission in Victoria, Australia, and highlights the potential of molecular epidemiology to guide and enhance public health responses in this setting. This informs ongoing discussions with community groups on the acceptability and place of molecular epidemiological approaches in Australia. National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council.

Four Years of Meander‐Bend Evolution Captured by Drone‐Based Lidar Reveals Lack of Width Maintenance on the White River, Indiana, USA

AbstractMeandering rivers experience fluctuations in width whenever riverbanks migrate in different directions or at different rates, which can be observed after individual floods. However, meandering rivers maintain approximately constant widths over decadal timescales. This implies some timescale below which width fluctuates as banks migrate independently, and above which width is maintained by a bank‐coupling process. This coupling is thought to occur either as point bar deposition events induce cutbank erosion (bar‐push), or as cutbank erosion events induce point bar deposition (bank‐pull). This coupling, however, has been challenging to observe in natural rivers due to limited event‐scale field data. We present results from a 4.5‐year campaign with 22 drone‐based lidar surveys of a single point bar and cutbank (∼0.35 km2 in area) on the White River near Worthington, Indiana, USA. The middle point bar experienced net erosion (5,400 m3), but net aggradation (17,100 m3) between 2019 and 2022 when including perennially submerged regions. This aggradation was less than the 35,700 m3 of cutbank erosion over the same period. Combined, we have observed widening (1.58 m/yr bend‐averaged; 3.08 m/yr near apex) over the study period as point bar deposition has not kept up with cutbank erosion. Finally, we suggest that the difference between bar‐push and bank‐pull as width‐maintenance mechanisms may not be resolvable by observing bend widening or narrowing alone without an advancement of current theory, such as determining a long‐term equilibrium width and measuring deviations relative thereto.

Sea-level change in coastal areas of China: Status in 2021

The sea level in coastal areas of China reached the second highest in 2021, just after that recorded in 2022. External force and dynamic analyses based on tide gauges, satellite observations, reanalysis data and regional numerical outputs were conducted to understand these abnormally high sea levels and determine their possible causes. Results show that the coastal sea level of China had increased at an annual rate of 3.4 ± 0.3 mm during 1980–2021, with an acceleration of 0.06 ± 0.02 mm per year2. The superposition of significant oscillations of quasi-2, 3–7, quasi-9, quasi-11, quasi-19 and 20–30 years contributed to the anomalously high sea levels. The negative-phased El Niño/Southern Oscillation was correlated with the anomalously high sea level and the north‒south anti-phase pattern of the coastal sea level in 2021. Meanwhile, phase lags of 1–4 months occurred with the sea-level response. On a decadal timescale, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was negatively correlated with the anomalous mean sea level (MSL), and the negative-phased PDO contributed to the anomalous sea-level change in 2021. Particularly, the monthly MSL peaked in April and July, and the contribution of wind stress to the anomalously high sea level was 38.5% in the south of the Taiwan Strait in April and 30% along the coast of China in July. These results were consistent with the tide gauge and satellite data. Close agreement was also observed between the coastal sea-level fingerprint and the air and sea surface temperatures.

A Global Assessment of Groundwater Recharge Response to Infiltration Variability at Monthly to Decadal Timescales

AbstractPredictions of groundwater fluctuations in space and time are important for sustainable water resource management. Infiltration variability on monthly to decadal timescales leads to fluctuations in the water tables and thus groundwater resources. However, connections between global‐scale climate variability and infiltration patterns and groundwater are often poorly understood because the relationships between groundwater conditions and infiltration tend to be highly nonlinear. In addition, understanding is further hampered because many groundwater records are incomplete and groundwater tables are often anthropogenically influenced, which makes identifying the effects of infiltration variability difficult. Previous studies that have evaluated how infiltration variability controls groundwater are based on a limited number of point measurements. Here, we present a global assessment of how infiltration variability is expected to affect groundwater tables. We use an analytical solution derived from Richards' equation to model water level responses to idealized periodic infiltration variability with periods that range from months to decades, to approximate both the effects of short‐term and long‐term climate variability and thus infiltration patterns. Our global‐scale assessment reveals why infiltration variability would lead to periodicity in groundwater recharge in particular regions. The vadose zone strongly dampens short‐term (seasonal and shorter) variations in infiltration fluxes throughout most of Earth's land surface, while infiltration cycles exceeding 1 year would yield transient recharge, except in more arid regions. Our results may help forecasting long‐term groundwater tables and could support improving groundwater resource management.

Long‐Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large‐Scale Meteorology Over the Western North Atlantic From 2003 to 2020

AbstractA continuous decrease in aerosols over the Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on a decadal timescale provides a long‐term benchmark to evaluate how various natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol‐cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO serves as a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds more variable than those in marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes established by the Gulf Stream and the semi‐permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite‐retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large‐scale meteorology related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find a reduction in low‐cloud optical thickness, accompanied by fewer and larger cloud droplets, yet observe no significant changes in low‐cloud fraction and liquid water path. Despite the reduction in low‐cloud optical thickness together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the trends of surface shortwave irradiance, also known as surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially related to concomitant changes found in large‐scale meteorology associated with NAO—Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high‐level cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns of decadal meteorological variability introduce complexities in the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO, thereby complicating the isolation and examination of aerosol‐cloud interactions.

The LTAR-integrated grazing land common experiment at the Texas Gulf.

Extreme weather and climate events have become more frequent and directly affect the ecological structure and function of integrated grazing lands. While the Great Plains have experienced a long history of regular disturbances from drought and floods, grazing, and fires, the increased frequency and magnitude of these disturbances can reduce ecological resilience, largely depending on management practices. Alternative strategies designed to adaptively manage grazing land resources based on the ecology of the system should increase the resistance and resilience to disturbances when compared to prevailing practices. Determining the ecologic and economic value of alternative strategies will require long-term evaluations across large spatial scales. The Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network has been established to evaluate the differences between alternative and prevailing practices among 18 strategically located sites and across decadal time scales throughout the continental United States. A key integrated grazing land site within this network is the Texas Gulf located at the Riesel Watersheds in the Blackland Prairie of Central Texas. At this study site, the differences between alternative and prevailing grazing management strategies are now being evaluated. The alternative strategy was designed using a combination of knowledge of the site and species ecology with modern-day tools and technologies. Alternatively, the prevailing practice implements a conventional year-round continuous grazing system with heavy reliance on hay and supplemental protein during winter. Results will provide grazing land managers with economically viable adaptive management choices for increasing ecological resilience following extreme and frequent disturbance events.

Rapid high-latitude cooling in the southeastern Pacific sector driven by North Atlantic warming during 1979–2013 in CESM1

During the 1979–2013 satellite observation period, the sea surface temperature (SST) has cooled substantially in the high-latitude Southern Ocean, with the most pronounced cooling tendency centered in the southeastern Pacific domain. Previous hypotheses have commonly ascribed the recent Southern Ocean cooling to either the tropical eastern Pacific cooling or North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean SST warming. However, the mechanisms underpinning significant cooling in the southeastern Pacific sector remain debatable. By diagnosing three pacemaker experiments with a state-of-the-art global climate model in which SSTs in the North Atlantic, tropical central-eastern Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean-western Pacific are individually nudged to mimic the observed trajectory, we show that the North Atlantic dominates in the cold SST response of the southeastern Pacific sector during 1979–2013. Anomalous North Atlantic warming initiates a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response to a south-to-north cross-equatorial Hadley circulation strengthening, leading to an enhanced Amundsen Sea Low. As a result, due primarily to the increased low-level marine cloud cover, the net surface shortwave radiation reduction triggers rapid SST cooling in the southeastern Pacific domain. The southeastern Pacific cold SST anomalies are further maintained via the shortwave radiation-low-cloud-SST positive feedback on decadal timescales. Our results suggest that the shortwave radiation-low-cloud SST feedback is fundamental to the observed long-term cooling of the high-latitude Southern Ocean, with profound climate consequences worldwide.

The observed evolution of sub‐daily to multi‐day heavy precipitation in Switzerland

AbstractHeavy precipitation is a major natural hazard in the Alps. Understanding the possible changes due to climate change is a prerequisite for effective climate adaptation and protection. In this study, we revisit the long‐term (1901–2023) evolution of daily and multi‐day heavy precipitation intensity and frequency, discuss trends for sub‐daily to multi‐day events in the recent period 1981–2023 and investigate elevation dependencies in the complex topography of Switzerland. We analyze station measurements from MeteoSwiss' dense operational network covering the whole country and a wide range of elevation levels. We find that daily maximum precipitation and the frequency of precipitation events exceeding the 99th all‐day percentile have increased since 1901 with a peak in the 1980s and decreases thereafter. For the recent period 1981–2023, positive trends in summer heavy precipitation intensity are detected for short (10‐min to 3‐h) events, but no changes are found for the frequency of these moderate extreme events. For longer (1‐ to 5‐day) events on the other hand, decreases in intensity and frequency are found, especially for the winter half‐year. We hypothesize that the opposing trends on the centennial (1901–2023) vs. decadal (1981–2023) time scales are caused by the interaction between thermodynamics, reflecting the primary influence of human‐induced climate change, and the internal variability of atmospheric dynamics. Moreover, we observe a small negative elevation dependency of the daily long‐term trends up to 2300 m above sea level. For the 1981–2023 trends, no strong elevation dependencies are found for sub‐daily events. For daily events, we find small opposing negative summer and positive winter elevation dependencies for both intensities and frequencies. The reason for these tendencies remains unclear. Our results underscore the need to further investigate the interplay between climate change, internal variability of large‐scale dynamics and elevation to better understand heavy precipitation variability in the complex Alpine terrain.

Thermal fronts in coastal waters regulate phytoplankton blooms via acting as barriers: A case study from western Guangdong, China

Oceanic fronts play an important role in regulating the distributions of phytoplankton and are subject to climate change. However, the relationship between climate change, oceanic fronts, and coastal phytoplankton blooms requires clarification. Using long-term satellite data, the seasonal, interannual, and decadal variations of the thermal fronts were examined, along with their effects on the distribution of phytoplankton in western Guangdong. Thermal fronts between the cold western Guangdong coastal current waters and the warm South China Sea (SCS) waters were found along the coast of western Guangdong during winter due to northeast winter monsoon. At decadal timescales, an increase (decrease) in frontal activities occurred during the negative (positive) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase. This pattern suggests that the positive (negative) PDO activity decreases (increases) sea level anomaly (SLA) and sea surface temperature in the SCS, thereby weakens (enhances) frontal activities along the coast. Accordingly, extensions and positive anomalies (> 1.5 mg/m3) in chlorophyll-a (Chl a) were observed during the positive PDO phase, whereas Chl a was concentrated in the nearshore areas during the negative PDO phase. These processes are primarily related to the barrier effects of enhanced thermal fronts and positive SLA on offshore materials transport during the negative PDO period. This study highlights the need to incorporate PDO activity into phytoplankton production in coastal oceans.

VedgeSat: An automated, open‐source toolkit for coastal change monitoring using satellite‐derived vegetation edges

AbstractPublic satellite platforms offer regular observations for global coastal monitoring and climate change risk management strategies. Unfortunately, shoreline positions derived from satellite imagery, representing changes in intertidal topography, are noisy and subject to tidal bias that requires correction. The seaward‐most vegetation boundary reflects a change indicator which shifts on event–decadal timescales, and informs coastal practitioners of storm damage, sediment availability and coastal landform health. We present and validate a new open‐source tool VedgeSat for identifying vegetation edges (VEs) from high (3 m) and moderate (10–30 m) resolution satellite imagery. The methodology is based on the CoastSat toolkit, with streamlined image processing using cloud‐based data management via Google Earth Engine. Images are classified using a newly trained vegetation‐specific neural network, and VEs are extracted at subpixel level using dynamic Weighted Peaks thresholding. We performed validation against ground surveys and manual digitisation of aerial imagery across eroding and accreting open coasts and estuarine environments at a site in Scotland. Smaller‐than‐pixel vegetation boundary detection was achieved across 83% of Sentinel‐2 imagery (Root Mean Square Error of 9.3 m). An overall RMSE of 19.0 m was achieved across Landsat 5 &amp; 8, Sentinel‐2 and PlanetScope images. Performance varied by coastal geomorphology, with highest accuracies across sandy open coasts owing to high spectral contrast and less false positives from intertidal vegetation. The VedgeSat tool can be readily applied in tandem with waterlines near‐globally, to support adaptation decisions with historic coastal trends across the whole shoreface, even in normally data‐scarce areas.

Determining the depth and rate of soil movement down the soil profile using an environmental tracer: a hillslope scale assessment

Context Soil materials can be delivered to depth from both in situ and ex situ materials. Here, we examine a hillslope in an agricultural environment that has been used for cropping and cattle grazing for over 150 years and a parallel area where cattle have been excluded for approximately 20 years. The exclusion area is a shelterbelt and also provides ecological services. Aims To quantify the depth and rate of down profile soil movement using the environmental tracer 137Cs at points along a hillslope profile. Methods 137Cs concentration is measured to bedrock at regular intervals both inside and outside a fenced of ecological services area pre-drought (2015) and post-drought (2021). In Australia. 137Cs is the by-product of nuclear weapons use and testing from1945 to 1972. Therefore, this places an age constraint on any labelled soil. Key results Results show that soil materials can move down the soil profile to reach bedrock at decadal time scales. An important finding is that materials from the surface can reach depths of up to 80 cm near the hillslope crest and up to 2.2 m at the base of the hillslope. Conclusions This demonstrates a relatively rapid translocation of surface material. Implications The method provides the ability to quantify the rapid movement of soil components and demonstrates the potential for deep sequestration of soil organic carbon. The results demonstrate the potential for soil amendments and agrochemicals to be rapidly transported to depth. The findings suggest that cattle exclusion has no impact on the movement of soil materials down the profile over the 20-year exclusion period.

Assessing decadal- to centennial-scale nonstationary variability in meteorological drought trends

Abstract. There are indications that the reference climatology underlying meteorological drought has shown nonstationarity at seasonal, decadal, and centennial timescales, impacting the calculation of drought indices and potentially having ecological and economic consequences. Analyzing these trends in meteorological drought climatology beyond 100 years, a time frame which exceeds the available period of observation data, contributes to a better understanding of the nonstationary changes, ultimately determining whether they are within the range of natural variability or outside this range. To accomplish this, our study introduces a novel approach to integrate unevenly scaled tree-ring proxy data from the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) with instrumental precipitation datasets by first temporally downscaling the proxy data to produce a regular time series and then modeling climate nonstationarity while simultaneously correcting model-induced bias. This new modeling approach was applied to 14 sites across the continental United States using the 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) as a basis. The findings showed that certain locations have experienced recent rapid shifts towards drier or wetter conditions during the instrumental period compared to the past 1000 years, with drying trends generally found in the west and wetting trends in the east. This study also found that seasonal shifts have occurred in some regions recently, with seasonality changes most notable for southern gauges. We expect that our new approach provides a foundation for incorporating various datasets to examine nonstationary variability in long-term precipitation climatology and to confirm the spatial patterns noted here in greater detail.