Decadal Survey Research Articles

Cultivating a culture of inclusivity in heliophysics

A large number of heliophysicists from across career levels, institution types, and job titles came together to support a poster at Heliophysics 2050 and the position papers for the 2024 Heliophysics decadal survey titled “Cultivating a Culture of Inclusivity in Heliophysics,” “The Importance of Policies: It’s not just a pipeline problem,” and “Mentorship within Heliophysics.” While writing these position papers, the number of people who privately shared disturbing stories and experiences of bullying and harassment was shocking. The number of people who privately expressed how burned out they were was staggering. The number of people who privately spoke about how they considered leaving the field for their and their family’s health was astounding. And for as much good there is in our community, it is still a toxic environment for many. If we fail to do something now, our field will continue to suffer. While acknowledging the ongoing growth that we as individuals must work toward, we call on our colleagues to join us in working on organizational, group, and personal levels toward a truly inclusive culture, for the wellbeing of our colleagues and the success of our field. This work includes policies, processes, and commitments to promote: accountability for bad actors; financial security through removing the constant anxiety about funding; prioritization of mental health and community through removing constant deadlines and constant last-minute requests; a collaborative culture rather than a hyper-competitive one; and a community where people can thrive as whole persons and do not have to give up a healthy or well-rounded life to succeed.

What is the heliopause? Importance of magnetic reconnection and measurement requirements

We highlight the importance of magnetic reconnection at the heliopause, both as one of the key processes driving the interaction between solar and interstellar media, but also as an element of the definition of the heliopause itself. We highlight the main observations that have fed the current debates on the definition, location and shape of the heliopause. We explain that discriminating between the current interpretations of plasma and magnetic field structures near the heliopause necessitates appropriate measurements which are lacking on Voyager 1 and 2, and describe some of the ensuing requirements for thermal plasma measurements on a future Interstellar Probe. The content of this article was submitted as a white paper contribution to the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics 2024–2033 of the National Academy of Sciences.

Commentary: Astronomy from space after the JWST

Commentary: Astronomy from space after the <i>JWST</i>

The case for solar full-disk spectral diagnostics: Chromosphere to corona

In the context of the recent call for white papers for the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2024–2033, we present the argument that spatially-resolved spectral diagnostics over the full solar disk should be made a high-priority goal in Heliophysics and lead to the development of a mission concept that has the potential to become a cornerstone of the Heliophysics System Observatory (HSO). We claim that a mission providing consistent full-disk sampling of plasma properties (Doppler-shifts, non-thermal velocities, electron densities, elemental composition, etc.) of the chromosphere-corona system at the dynamic timescales of solar eruptive phenomena will revolutionize the field by adding the spectral diagnostics capability to the highly successful concept of full-disk imaging, everywhere, all the time, represented by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We argue for it to be developed by the end of the current Decadal Survey cycle around the lessons learned from spectroscopic missions in the current NASA development pipeline, that include innovative strategies for faster integration of large fields-of-view, and comprehensive temperature coverage.

Solar Intensity Dispersing (SID) Concept for CubeSat Spectral CLARREO‐Like Radiance Measurements

AbstractNRC Decadal Surveys stated that the most critical goal for orbital climate measurements was improving accuracy. This is so comparisons can be better made with models, tuning theory to match the truth. That gives confidence in model predictions of future global cloud albedo warming signals, estimated to be only 0.8%/decade or less. This work considers goals of a future mission CLARREO, currently in the development phase. CLARREO's Earth viewing optics intend to scan lunar radiance for tracking calibration changes, within both a high wavelength and high spatial resolution spectrometer. The current NASA CLARREO design will attempt absolute calibration from the space station by attenuating known solar flux, using pinholes and time under‐sampling. This study presents a cheaper and potentially more effective alternative, instead using the Sun as a near direct absolute calibration target. It does this spreading sunlight over a large solid angle, before integrating signals taken from a spinning orbiting CubeSat. Additionally, after reviewing actual orbital data comparisons, the realistic accuracy of cross‐orbit satellite to satellite calibration is shown several percent at best, even for a perfect CLARREO device (far short of the desired ±0.3% quoted by NASA). That is compared to the accuracy achievable from an absolute lunar spectral characterization from this CubeSat called “MERBE‐Sat,” acting as a transfer for a climate observation system, perhaps better than ±0.3% error. Although discussed individual components of MERBE‐Sat are mostly of high TRL Level, this work suggests experimentation to raise the net TRL level of the new entire concept.

The next batch of ‘great observatories’

Astronomers have turned their eye towards the future following the US National Academies’ latest decadal survey of astronomy and astrophysics, which recommended a new generation of space telescopes. Keith Cooper explores their prospects, and the lessons learned from the troubled development of the James Webb Space Telescope.

US RACIAL AND ETHNIC DISPARITIES IN DEMENTIA LIFE EXPECTANCY, RISK/PROTECTIVE FACTORS, AND CAREGIVING STRESSORS

Abstract The health, emotional, and economic impacts of dementia are far-reaching and impossible to fully calculate. Late-life dementia is not equitably distributed across population subgroups including older people and racial/ethnic minorities. Clear evidence underscores disparities in social/personal resources, environmental exposures, racism/discrimination, increased burden of caregiving, and uneven access to quality care especially for Blacks and Hispanics and caregivers. Each paper in this symposium addresses high-priority, disparity research areas highlighted in the recent NASEM Decadal Survey of Behavioral and Social Science Research on ADRD: characteristics of population groups that influence disease ascertainment and dementia life expectancy; quantification of mid- and late-life risk/protective factors; pesticide exposure and cognition, and caregiving stressors among racial/ethnic minorities. All presentations utilize nationally representative data on older people in the US. Garcia et al. utilize HRS data to create dementia life expectancy estimates using four competing algorithmic classifications of dementia status by race/ethnicity (Blacks, Whites), nativity status (US-, non-US-born Latinos), and gender. Applying the Lancet Commission Dementia Prevention framework to HRS data, Ferdows and Aranda examine risk/protective factors and quantify the relative contribution of individual variables in explaining racial/ethnic dementia disparities. Chanti-Ketterl et al. elucidate the association between organochlorines pesticides (total scores, specific type) and cognition based on NHANES data to ascertain racial/ethnic differences. Based on NHATS, Moon et al. explore differences in primary stressors by dementia care and race (Blacks, Whites) during COVID-19. Findings provide evidence of potential multi-level targets for interventions and public policies. All primary authors are early-career scholars dedicated to mitigating ADRD health disparities.

The future of auroral E-region plasma turbulence research

The heating caused by ionospheric E-region plasma turbulence has documented global implications for the energy transfer from space into the terrestrial atmosphere. Traveling atmospheric disturbances, neutral wind motion, energy deposition rates, and ionospheric conductance have all been shown to be potentially affected by turbulent plasma heating. Therefore it is proposed to enhance and expand existing ionospheric radar capabilities and fund research into E-region plasma turbulence so that it is possible to more accurately quantify the solar-terrestrial energy budget and study phenomena related to E-region plasma turbulence. The proposed research funding includes the development of models to accurately predict and model the E-region plasma turbulence using particle-in-cell analysis, fluid-based analysis, and hybrid combinations of the two. This review provides an expanded and more detailed description of the past, present, and future of auroral E-region plasma turbulence research compared to the summary report submitted to the National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2024–2033 (Huyghebaert et al., 2022a).

National Academies Report and Biophysics Education

National Academies Report and Biophysics Education

Space weather observations, modeling, and alerts in support of human exploration of Mars

Space weather observations and modeling at Mars have begun but they must be significantly increased to support the future of Human Exploration on the Red Planet. A comprehensive space weather understanding of a planet without a global magnetosphere and a thin atmosphere is very different from our situation at Earth so there is substantial fundamental research remaining. It is expected that the development of suitable models will lead to a comprehensive operational Mars space weather alert (MSWA) system that would provide rapid dissemination of information to Earth controllers, astronauts in transit, and those in the exploration zone (EZ) on the surface by producing alerts that are delivered rapidly and are actionable. To illustrate the importance of such a system, we use a magnetohydrodynamic code to model an extreme Carrington-type coronal mass ejection (CME) event at Mars. The results show a significant induced surface field of nearly 3,000 nT on the dayside that could radically affect unprotected electrical systems that would dramatically impact human survival on Mars. Other associated problems include coronal mass ejection (CME) shock-driven acceleration of solar energetic particles producing large doses of ionizing radiation at the Martian surface. In summary, along with working more closely with international partners, the next Heliophysics Decadal Survey must include a new initiative to meet expected demands for space weather forecasting in support of humans living and working on the surface of Mars. It will require significant effort to coordinate NASA and the international community contributions.

STELLA—Potential European contributions to a NASA-led interstellar probe

The discovery of a myriad of exoplanets in the past decades has revolutionized the understanding of our place in the Universe. How different are exoplants and do some of them harbor life, just like Earth? To do so, their parent stars must drive a stellar wind and carve what we call astrospheres into the surrounding interstellar medium. Astrospheres are ubiquitous in our immediate neighborhood and show similar structure to our heliosphere. Voyager 1 and 2, Ulysses, Cassini, and IBEX have shown that the interaction between interstellar medium and solar wind is much more complex and involved than previously believed. This stellar-interstellar interaction is key to understand astrospheres and the shielding they provide to the planetary systems they harbor. This article summarizes a whitepaper that was submitted to NASA’s 2023/2024 decadal survey which is being conducted by the US National Academies. It is based in parts on a proposal submitted to the European Space Agency (ESA) in response to its 2021 call for medium-class mission proposals. The whitepaper and this article propose to study the interaction described above in situ at the heliospheric boundaries and to explore the very local interstellar medium beyond. Furthermore, they highlight possible European contributions to a NASA-led Interstellar Probe (ISP).

The magnetosphere-ionosphere observatory (MIO) mission concept

MIO (Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Observatory) is designed to definitively fix a cause-and-effect problem: In the nightside magnetosphere-ionosphere system we don’t know what is connected to what. The MIO mission concept is to operate a powerful 1-MeV electron accelerator on a main spacecraft in the equatorial nightside magnetosphere: the electron beam is directed into the atmospheric loss cone to deposit ionizing electrons in the atmosphere sufficient to optically illuminate the magnetic footpoint of the spacecraft while 4 nearby daughter spacecraft make equatorial magnetospheric measurements. A network of ground-based optical imagers across Alaska and Canada will locate the optical beamspot thereby unambiguously establishing the magnetic connection between equatorial magnetospheric measurements and ionospheric phenomena. Critical gradient measurements will be made to discern magnetospheric field-aligned-current generator mechanisms. This enables the magnetospheric drivers of various aurora, ionospheric phenomena, and field-aligned currents to be determined. In support of the Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2022 Decadal Survey, an experienced team of engineers and scientists at The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) have developed a NASA HMCS (Heliospheric Mission Concept Study) mission concept that can achieve the science objectives. The mission concept presented here is the result of trade studies that optimized the mission with regard to factors such as science objectives, concept study requirements, space environment, engineering constraints, and risk. This Methods paper presents an overview of the MIO concept.

A multi-lander New Frontiers mission concept study for Enceladus: SILENUS

Enceladus, with its subsurface ocean, is amongst the top priority targets in the search for life beyond Earth. Following on discoveries from the Cassini mission that Enceladus possesses a global subsurface ocean containing salt and organic compounds, there are many unconstrained properties of the ocean and ice shell that must be investigated to further assess the habitability of Enceladus and begin the search for biosignatures on Enceladus. In this paper, we present a concept study for a New Frontiers class multi-lander and orbiter mission to Enceladus that investigates if there is or ever was a habitable environment on Enceladus. The mission architecture includes an orbiter for detailed chemical analysis of material erupted from Enceladus’ plumes and four impact landers for geophysical measurements. As part of our mission concept study, we explore key trades for orbital and surface science, as well as assess the scientific potential and hazards of candidate landing sites on Enceladus. The novelty of our mission architecture and consideration of both orbital and surface science elements makes this work directly relevant to a broad range of potential future mission architectures under consideration, such as those identified in the 2023–2032 Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey.

Deconfusing Detections in Directly Imaged Multiplanet Systems* * Submitted on April, 1st, 2022

High-contrast images from future space-based telescopes may contain several planets from multiplanet systems and potentially a few planet-like speckles. When taken several months apart, the short-period planets and speckles will appear to move significantly, to the point that it might not be clear which point source (detection) in the image belongs to which object. In this work, we develop a tool, the deconfuser, to test quickly all the plausible partitions of detections by planets based on orbital mechanics. We then apply the deconfuser to a large set of simulated observations to estimate “confusion” rates, i.e., how often there are multiple distinct orbit combinations that describe the data well. We find that in the absence of missed and false detections, four observations are sufficient to avoid confusion, except for systems with high inclinations (above 75°). In future work, the deconfuser will be integrated into mission simulation tools, such as EXOSIMS, to assess the risk of confusion in missions such as the IR/O/UV large telescope recommended by the Astro2020 decadal survey.

A study of blood group conversion in patients with ABO incompatible hematopoietic stem cell transplantation—A decade survey

BackgroundABO incompatibility is not a contraindication but would affect the prognosis of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). The dynamic change of blood phenotype is not only related to the patient's status, but also the basis for the implementation of compatible blood transfusion. The criteria for judging a complete transformation to donor-type and the principle of blood transfusion at relapse need to be unified. We aimed to illustrate the significance of blood group monitoring after allo-HSCT. Material and methodsWe collected 263 patients underwent ABO incompatible allo-HSCT from January 2010 to December 2019, and monitored blood type regularly according to the frequency of the patient's return visits till complete conversion or death. Non-parametric test was used to find differences among incompatible groups. We analyzed factors potentially influence blood type conversion by Binary Logistic model. Cox regression model was used to illustrate the relationship between blood-type conversion and prognosis. ResultsThe median days of conversion were 107, 91 and 108 in major-, minor- and bidirectional groups respectively. Blood type conversion correlated with HLA compatibility (P = 0.012, OR=2.69) and acute graft-versus-host-disease (P = 0.001, OR=0.06). Patients with incomplete blood type conversion had a higher death rate than those with complete blood type conversion(P = 0.003, OR=3.703). DiscussionBlood type monitoring can help to evaluate the prognosis of transplantation and assess the risk of death. It is recommended to monitor the changes of blood group antigens and antibodies, especially within a year after transplantation, to predict the risk of adverse events (such as GVHD, recurrence, death, etc.).

Racial and Sex Disparities in Gout Prevalence Among US Adults

Emerging data suggest gout and hyperuricemia may now be more frequent among Black adults in the US than White adults, especially Black women. However, national-level, sex-specific general population data on racial differences in gout prevalence and potential socioclinical risk factors are lacking. To identify sex-specific factors driving disparities between Black and White adults in contemporary gout prevalence in the US general population. This cross-sectional analysis used nationally representative, decadal survey data from successive cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007 to 2016. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2019, through May 31, 2021. Participants included US adults self-reporting Black or White race. Self-reported race, excess body mass index, chronic kidney disease (CKD; defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, according to latest equations without race coefficient), poverty, poor-quality diet, low educational level, alcohol consumption, and diuretic use. Race- and sex-specific prevalence of physician- or clinician-diagnosed gout and hyperuricemia and their differences before and after adjusting for potential socioclinical risk factors. A total of 18 693 participants were included in the analysis, consisting of 3304 Black women (mean [SD] age, 44.8 [0.4] years), 6195 White women (mean [SD] age, 49.8 [0.3] years), 3085 Black men (mean [SD] age, 43.6 [0.5] years]), and 6109 White men (mean [SD] age, 48.2 [0.3] years). Age-standardized prevalence of gout was 3.5% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.3%) in Black women and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.5%) in White women (age-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.81 [95% CI, 1.29-2.53]); prevalence was 7.0% (95% CI, 6.2%-7.9%) in Black men and 5.4% (95% CI, 4.7%-6.2%) in White men (age-adjusted OR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.02-1.55]). These associations attenuated after adjusting for poverty, diet, body mass index, and CKD among women and for diet and CKD among men but became null after adjusting for all risk factors (ORs, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.67-1.65] among women and 1.05 [95% CI, 0.80-1.35] among men). Hyperuricemia end point findings were similar. In this nationally representative race- and sex-specific cross-sectional study of US adults, gout was more prevalent in adults self-reporting Black race during a recent 10-year period compared with their White counterparts. These racial differences may be explained by sex-specific differences in diet and social determinants of health and clinical factors. Culturally informed efforts focusing on these factors could reduce current gout-related disparities.

2024 Decadal Survey for Space and Solar Physics: Space Weather Inputs

AbstractThe next decadal survey process for space and solar physics will start soon with white papers due during the second half of 2022 and the committees and panels working over all of 2023. Space weather science and operations will play an essential role in this survey. Therefore, the community is invited to prepare white papers and get involved in advancing space weather research and capabilities in the upcoming decades. A summary of the recommendations related to space weather from the last two decadal surveys is also provided.

The Mass Change Designated Observable Study: Overview and Results

AbstractThe 2017–2027 United States National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey (DS) for Earth Science and Applications from Space identified Mass Change (MC) as one of five Designated Observables (DOs) having the highest priority in terms of Earth observations required to advance Earth system science over the next decade. In response to this designation, NASA initiated several multi‐center studies, with the goal of recommending observing system architectures for each DO for implementation within this decade. This paper provides an overview of the Mass Change Designated Observable (MCDO) Study along with key findings. The study process included: (a) generation of a Science and Applications Traceability Matrix (SATM) that maps required measurement parameters to the DS Science and Applications Objectives; (b) identification of three architecture classes relevant for measuring mass change: Precise Orbit Determination (POD), Satellite‐Satellite‐Tracking (SST) and Gravity Gradiometry (GG), along with variants within each architecture class; and (c) creation of a Value Framework process that considers science value, cost, risk, schedule, and partnership opportunities, to identify and recommend high value observing systems for further in‐depth study. The study team recommended the implementation of an SST architecture, and identified variants that simultaneously (a) satisfy the baseline measurement parameters of the SATM; (b) maximize the probability of providing overlap with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO) mission currently in operation, accelerating science return from both missions; and (c) provide a pathway towards substantial improvements in resolution and accuracy of mass change data products relative to the program of record.

Photobombing Earth 2.0: Diffraction-limit-related Contamination and Uncertainty in Habitable Planet Spectra

Observing habitable exoplanets that may resemble Earth is a key priority in astronomy that is dependent on not only detecting such worlds but also ascertaining that apparent signatures of habitability are not due to other sources. Space telescopes designed to observe such worlds, such as that recommended by NASA’s 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey, have a diffraction-limited resolution that effectively spreads light from a source in a region around the source point. In this Letter, we show that the diffraction limit of a 6 m space telescope results in a point-spread function of an Earth-like planet that may contain additional unanticipated bodies for systems at distances relevant to the proposed searches. These unexpected additional objects, such as other planets and moons, can influence obtained spectra for a putative habitable planet by producing spurious features and adding additional uncertainty to the spectra. A model of Earth observed by a 6 m space telescope as though it was an exoplanet shows that the light from the Earth would be blended with the Moon, Mercury, Venus, and Mars in various combinations and at different times for numerous combinations of distance to the system and wavelength. Given the importance of extricating the true spectra of a potentially habitable planet in order to search for biosignatures, we highlight the need to account for this effect during the development of relevant telescopes and suggest some potential means of accounting for this photobombing effect.

VALENTInE: A Concept for a New Frontiers–Class Long-duration In Situ Balloon-based Aerobot Mission to Venus

Described here is a concept for a variable-altitude aerobot mission to Venus developed as part of the 2020 NASA Planetary Science Summer School in collaboration with NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Venus Air and Land Expedition: a Novel Trailblazer for in situ Exploration (VALENTInE) is a long-duration New Frontiers–class mission to Venus in alignment with the goals recommended by the 2013 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. VALENTInE would have five science objectives: (1) determine the driving force of atmospheric superrotation, (2) determine the source of D/H and noble gas inventory, (3) determine the properties that govern how light is reflected within the lower cloud later, (4) determine whether the tesserae are felsic, and (5) determine whether there is evidence of a recent dynamo preserved in the rock record. The proposed mission concept has a total duration of 15 Earth days and would float at an altitude of 55 km, along with five dips to a lower altitude of 45 km to study Venus’s lower atmosphere. The instrument payload allows for measurements of the atmosphere, surface, and interior of Venus and includes six instruments: an atmospheric weather suite, a mass spectrometer, a multispectral imager, a near-infrared spectrometer, light detection and ranging, and a magnetometer. Principle challenges included a limitation caused by battery lifetime and low technology readiness levels for aerobots that can survive the harsh conditions of Venus’s atmosphere. This preliminary mission was designed to fit within an assumed New Frontiers 5 (based on inflated New Frontiers 4) cost cap.