Decadal Sea Level Variability Research Articles

Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast

Long-term sea-level rise and multiyear to decadal sea level variations pose substantial risks for flooding and erosion in coastal communities. Here we use observations and climate model predictions to show that sea level variations along the U.S. East Coast are skillfully predictable 3 to 10 years in advance. The most predictable component of sea level is a basin scale upward trend, predictable a decade in advance and primarily a response to increasing greenhouse gases. Significant additional predictability comes from multidecadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While perfect model simulations show AMOC-related sea level predictability of 5-7 years, model biases and initialization uncertainties reduce the realized predictive skill to 3-5 years, depending on location. Overall, greenhouse gas warming and predictable AMOC variations lead to multiyear to decadal prediction skill for sea level along the U.S. East Coast. Such skill could have significant societal benefit for planning and adaptation.

Interannual to decadal sea level variability in the subpolar North Atlantic: the role of propagating signals

Abstract. The gyre-scale, dynamic sea surface height (SSH) variability signifies the spatial redistribution of heat and freshwater in the ocean, influencing the ocean circulation, weather, climate, sea level, and ecosystems. It is known that the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the interannual SSH variability in the North Atlantic exhibits a tripole gyre pattern, with the subtropical gyre varying out of phase with both the subpolar gyre and the tropics, influenced by the low-frequency North Atlantic Oscillation. Here, we show that the first EOF mode explains the majority (60 %–90 %) of the interannual SSH variance in the Labrador and Irminger Sea, whereas the second EOF mode is more influential in the northeastern part of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), explaining up to 60 %–80 % of the regional interannual SSH variability. We find that the two leading modes do not represent physically independent phenomena. On the contrary, they evolve as a quadrature pair associated with a propagation of SSH anomalies from the eastern to the western SPNA. This is confirmed by the complex EOF analysis, which can detect propagating (as opposed to stationary) signals. The analysis shows that it takes about 2 years for sea level signals to propagate from the Iceland Basin to the Labrador Sea, and it takes 7–10 years for the entire cycle of the North Atlantic SSH tripole to complete. The observed westward propagation of SSH anomalies is linked to shifting wind forcing patterns and to the cyclonic pattern of the mean ocean circulation in the SPNA. The analysis of regional surface buoyancy fluxes in combination with the upper-ocean temperature and salinity changes suggests a time-dependent dominance of either air–sea heat fluxes or advection in driving the observed SSH tendencies, while the contribution of surface freshwater fluxes (precipitation and evaporation) is negligible. We demonstrate that the most recent cooling and freshening observed in the SPNA since about 2010 were mostly driven by advection associated with the North Atlantic Current. The results of this study indicate that signal propagation is an important component of the North Atlantic SSH tripole, as it applies to the SPNA.

A decadal sea-level variability in Port-Said Harbour (Egypt)

This paper used hourly data from the sea-level recorder installed in Port-Said Harbour on the Eastern Egyptian Mediterranean Coast. The data covered one decade (2002–2011) and were used to describe the temporal sea-level variability off Port Said including; its mean sea level (MSL), annual rate trend, seasonal behaviour, main tidal features, and the different water levels. The T_TIDE program was applied to obtain the astronomical constituents and the residual elevations. Throughout the period of study, the MSL was 69.1 cm; reaching its minimum (63.5 cm) in 2007 and its maximum (74.5 cm) in 2006. Tides were mixed mainly semidiurnal, and the sea level had an increasing rate of 2.1 mm/yr. The Principal Lunar constituent (M2) had the largest astronomical amplitude of 13.4 cm, and the spring to neap ratio was 1.4. The sea level displayed seasonal alterations with the lowest values in spring and highest in summer. The residual heights varied between 11.60 and 110 cm with an average of 67.5 cm. Results revealed that the astronomical tide contributed with 2.3% in the observed sea level, while the surge contributed with 97.7%. The correlation between the sea-level fluctuations with the meteorological conditions in the vicinity of Port Said needs further investigation.

Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends

Abstract. Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes due to natural and anthropogenic drivers in short-duration records and increases uncertainty in trend and acceleration estimates. When making regional coastal management and adaptation decisions, it is important to understand the drivers of these changes to account for periods of reduced or enhanced sea-level change. The variance in decadal sea-level trends about the global mean is quantified and mapped around the global coastlines of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans from historical CMIP6 runs and a high-resolution ocean model forced by reanalysis data. We reconstruct coastal, sea-level trends via linear relationships with climate mode and oceanographic indices. Using this approach, more than one-third of the variability in decadal sea-level trends can be explained by climate indices at 24.6 % to 73.1 % of grid cells located within 25 km of a coast in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. At 10.9 % of the world's coastline, climate variability explains over two-thirds of the decadal sea-level trend. By investigating the steric, manometric, and gravitational components of sea-level trend independently, it is apparent that much of the coastal ocean variability is dominated by the manometric signal, the consequence of the open-ocean steric signal propagating onto the continental shelf. Additionally, decadal variability in the gravitational, rotational, and solid-Earth deformation (GRD) signal should not be ignored in the total. There are locations such as the Persian Gulf and African west coast where decadal sea-level variability is historically small that are susceptible to future changes in hydrology and/or ice mass changes that drive intensified regional GRD sea-level change above the global mean. The magnitude of variance explainable by climate modes quantified in this study indicates an enhanced uncertainty in projections of short- to mid-term regional sea-level trend.

Decadal sea-level variability in the Australasian Mediterranean Sea

Abstract. Strong regional sea-level trends, mainly related to basin-wide wind stress anomalies, have been observed in the western tropical Pacific over the last 3 decades. Analyses of regional sea level in the densely populated regions of the neighbouring Australasian Mediterranean Sea (AMS; also called tropical Asian seas) are hindered by its complex topography and respective studies are sparse. We used a series of global eddy-permitting ocean models, including a high-resolution configuration that resolves the AMS with 120∘ horizontal resolution, forced by a comprehensive atmospheric forcing product over 1958–2016 to characterize the patterns and magnitude of decadal sea-level variability in the AMS. The nature of this variability is elucidated further by sensitivity experiments with interannual variability restricted to either the momentum or buoyancy fluxes, building on an experiment employing a repeated-year forcing without interannual variability in all forcing components. Our results suggest that decadal fluctuations of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) account for over 80 % of the variability in all deep basins of the region, except for the central South China Sea (SCS). Changes related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are most pronounced in the shallow Arafura and Timor seas and in the central SCS. On average, buoyancy fluxes account for less than 10 % of decadal SSH variability, but this ratio is highly variable over time and can reach values of up to 50 %. In particular, our results suggest that buoyancy flux forcing amplifies the dominant wind-stress-driven anomalies related to ENSO cycles. Intrinsic variability is mostly negligible except in the SCS, where it accounts for 25 % of the total decadal SSH variability.

Sea Level Seasonal, Interannual and Decadal Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

The satellite altimeter data, temperature and salinity data, and 1.5-layer reduced gravity model are used to quantitatively evaluate the contributions of the steric effect and the dynamic process to sea level variations in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) on different time scales. Concurrently, it also analyses the influence of wind forcing over the different regions of the Pacific Ocean on the sea level variations in the TPO. Seasonal sea level variations in the TPO were the most important in the middle and eastern regions of the 5°–15°N latitude zone, explaining 40–60% of the monthly mean sea level variations. Both the steric effect and dynamic process jointly affected the seasonal sea level variations. Among them, the steric effect was dominant, contributing over 70% in most regions of the TPO, while the dynamic process primarily acted near the equator and southwest regions, contributing approximately 55–85%. At the same time, the seasonal dynamic sea level variations were caused by the combined actions of primarily local wind forcing, alongside subtropical north Pacific wind forcing. On the interannual to decadal time scale, the sea level interannual variations were significant in the northwestern, southwestern, and middle eastern regions of the TPO and explained 45–60% of the monthly mean sea level variations. The decadal sea level variations were the most intense in the eastern Philippine Sea, contributing 25–45% to the monthly mean sea level variations. The steric effect and the dynamic process can explain 100% of the interannual to decadal sea level variations. The contribution of the steric effect was generally high, accounting for more than 85% in the regions near the equator. The impact of the dynamic process was mainly concentrated in the northwest, northeast, and southern regions of the TPO, contributing approximately 55–80%. Local wind forcing is the leading role of interannual to decadal sea level variations. The combined actions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can explain 90% of the interannual to decadal sea level variations in the northwestern and eastern of the TPO.

Contribution of buoyancy fluxes to tropical Pacific sea level variability

Abstract. Regional anomalies of steric sea level are either due to redistribution of heat and freshwater anomalies or due to ocean–atmosphere buoyancy fluxes. Interannual to decadal variability in sea level across the tropical Pacific is mainly due to steric variations driven by wind stress anomalies. The importance of air–sea buoyancy fluxes is less clear. We use a global, eddy-permitting ocean model and a series of sensitivity experiments with quasi-climatological momentum and buoyancy fluxes to identify the contribution of buoyancy fluxes for interannual to decadal sea level variability in the tropical Pacific. We find their contribution on interannual timescales to be strongest in the central tropical Pacific at around a 10∘ latitude in both hemispheres and also relevant in the very east of the tropical domain. Buoyancy-flux-forced anomalies are correlated with variations driven by wind stress changes, but their effect on the prevailing anomalies and the importance of heat and freshwater fluxes vary locally. In the eastern tropical basin, interannual sea level variability is amplified by anomalous heat fluxes, while the importance of freshwater fluxes is small, and neither has any impact on decadal timescales. In the western tropical Pacific, the variability on interannual and decadal timescales is dampened by both heat and freshwater fluxes. The mechanism involves westward-propagating Rossby waves that are triggered during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by anomalous buoyancy fluxes in the central tropical Pacific and counteract the prevailing sea level anomalies once they reach the western part of the basin.

The sea level variability and its projections over the Indo‐Pacific Ocean in CMIP5 models

The present study examines the representation of interannual and decadal variability of sea level over the Indo-Pacific region in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations and future projections. The thermocline ridge region of the Indian Ocean (TRIO) shows strong sea level variability on both the interannual and decadal timescales in the CMIP5 historical simulations. Meanwhile, prominent interannual variability is seen in the tropical western Pacific and central to eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas, the decadal sea level variability is dominant in the North Pacific and western Pacific regions. CMIP5 models project similar spatial patterns of sea level variability over the Indo-Pacific region for the twenty-first century under the mid-range and high future emission scenarios, although with some differences in the amplitude and inter-model disagreement. In the interannual timescale, there is a regional contrast in the projected future variability between the Pacific (with increase in variability with increasing greenhouse gas emissions) and TRIO (with decrease of ~ 6 % variability), which is evident in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future emission scenarios with inter-model consensus. On the other hand, increase in decadal sea level variability (~ 6 % and ~ 8 % in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively) is projected over the North Pacific region (north of 30°N). In the Indian Ocean, increase in decadal sea level variability is projected over the northwestern region including Arabian Sea, though it is not a region of large decadal variability (in the reanalysis and historical simulations). Analysis revealed that the local wind forcing (wind stress curl) plays a dominant role in the sea level variability over the Indo-Pacific region on both interannual and decadal timescales.

The decadal sea level variability observed in the Indian Ocean tide gauge records and its association with global climate modes

Decadal sea level variability of the Indian Ocean is studied using long-term tide gauge observations of 17 stations. The existence of close association between Indian Ocean sea level and the global decadal climate modes, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and/or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is revealed in most of the tide gauge data sets. An anti-phase sea level evolution with PDO index is identified in the regions such as west coast of India, east coast of India and the western coast of Australia. Moreover, the PDO related sea level variability is found to be stronger at the tide gauge stations along the west coast of India compared to that along the east coast of India, ruling out the remote forcing from the equatorial Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the tide gauge station at Mumbai with more than 100 years of data shows an in-phase relationship with AMO index on the decadal timescales, whereas such relationship is very weak at the tide gauge station Fremantle where similar long-term data is available. The analysis of sea level pressure (SLP), rainfall and winds over the tropical Indian Ocean indicates existence of strong relationship with AMO especially over the Arabian Sea region, strongly suggesting that the variability observed at the tide gauge station Mumbai may have larger spatial signatures. During the positive phase of AMO, the Arabian Sea region is characterized by large fall in SLP and a strong cross equatorial flow towards the Indian land mass, which are primarily responsible for the positive sea level anomalies (SLAs) at the Mumbai tide gauge station and the adjacent regions and positive rainfall over India.

Impacts of the upper-ocean salinity variations on the decadal sea level change in the Southeast Indian Ocean during the Argo era

In the past nearly two decades, the Argo Program has created an unprecedented global observing array with continuous in situ salinity observations, providing opportunities to extend our knowledge on the variability and effects of ocean salinity. In this study, we utilize the Argo data during 2004–2017, together with the satellite observations and a newly released version of ECCO ocean reanalysis, to explore the decadal salinity variability in the Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) and its impacts on the regional sea level changes. Both the observations and ECCO reanalysis show that during the Argo era, sea level in the SEIO and the tropical western Pacific experienced a rapid rise in 2005–2013 and a subsequent decline in 2013–2017. Such a decadal phase reversal in sea level could be explained, to a large extent, by the steric sea level variability in the upper 300 m. Argo data further show that, in the SEIO, both the temperature and salinity changes have significant positive contributions to the decadal sea level variations. This is different from much of the Indo-Pacific region, where the halosteric component often has minor or negative contributions to the regional sea level pattern on decadal timescale. The salinity budget analyses based on the ECCO reanalysis indicate that the decadal salinity change in the upper 300 m of SEIO is mainly caused by the horizontal ocean advection. More detailed decomposition reveals that in the SEIO, there exists a strong meridional salinity front between the tropical low-salinity and subtropical high salinity waters. The meridional component of decadal circulation changes will induce strong cross-front salinity exchange and thus the significant regional salinity variations.

Impacts of the mid-latitude westerlies anomaly on the decadal sea level variability east of China

The present analysis has revealed that both the altimetry and tide gauge records show a prominent sea level rise from 1993 to 2016 in the coastal seas east of China, including Bohai, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYECS). The regional mean sea level rise rate for the BYECS continental shelf area is ~ 3.2 mm/year, which is close to the global mean (2.9 mm/year). Besides the rising trend, the BYECS sea level anomaly (SLA) also shows obvious interannual and decadal oscillation. It is found that the mid-latitude westerlies, rather than the steric height variability, are responsible for these oscillations. By analyzing the 67-year (1950–2016) hindcast outputs from an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model, a 14.2 years decadal period is found to dominate the BYECS SLA variability, and the decadal oscillation is positively correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The composite analysis and causality analysis demonstrate that during the positive phase of the NPGO, the mid-latitude westerlies decrease and a positive wind stress curl anomaly at the same latitude of the East China Sea’s Kuroshio occurs to the south of the westerlies. Consequently, the Kuroshio Current volume transport and sea surface height difference between the two sides of the Kuroshio decrease, that is, the sea level in the BYECS rises.

Natural decadal sea-level variability in the Indian Ocean: lessons from CMIP models

Indian Ocean decadal sea-level variability is an active research area, with many unresolved questions due to inadequate observational coverage. In this study, we analyse 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) pre-industrial simulations and isolate two consistent modes of Indian Ocean variability, which collectively explain about 50% of the total decadal sea-level variance. With opposite sea-level signals in the southwestern and eastern Indian Ocean, the first mode is related to decadal modulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (DIOD) and equatorial wind-driven dynamics. Though IOD is more independent of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at decadal (r ~ 0.4) than interannual (r ~ 0.6) timescales, the DIOD–ENSO co-variability yields sea-level signals along the west coast of Australia, transmitted from the western Pacific via the Indonesian Throughflow. The second mode encompasses variability in the south Indian Ocean (SIODV), exhibiting a broad monopolar sea-level pattern east of Madagascar. In about half of the models, the SIODV is largely independent from DIOD (and decadal ENSO) and driven by south Indian Ocean wind-stress curl associated with meridional shifts in the Mascarene High (MH). In the other models, the SIODV lags the DIOD about 3 years. In those models, in addition to MH forcing, the DIOD-related alongshore wind stress off the northwest Australian coast triggers Rossby waves that also contribute to the SIODV, further west. The DIOD and MH forcing are mutually independent (r ~ 0.2). The results are broadly consistent with sea-level variations derived from the short altimeter data, despite an underestimation of the Oceanic bridge signals in CMIP models.

Decadal Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean: Origins and Climate Mode Contributions

AbstractSea level changes within wide temporal–spatial scales have great influence on oceanic and atmospheric circulations. Efforts have been made to identify long-term sea level trend and regional sea level variations on different time scales. A nonuniform sea level rise in the tropical Pacific and the strengthening of the easterly trade winds from 1993 to 2012 have been widely reported. It is well documented that sea level in the tropical Pacific is associated with the typical climate modes. However, sea level change on interannual and decadal time scales still requires more research. In this study, the Pacific sea level anomaly (SLA) was decomposed into interannual and decadal time scales via an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The temporal–spatial features of the SLA variability in the Pacific were examined and were closely associated with climate variability modes. Moreover, decadal SLA oscillations in the Pacific Ocean were identified during 1993–2016, with the phase reversals around 2000, 2004, and 2012. In the tropical Pacific, large sea level variations in the western and central basin were a result of changes in the equatorial wind stress. Moreover, coherent decadal changes could also be seen in wind stress, sea surface temperature (SST), subtropical cells (STCs), and thermocline depth. Our work provided a new way to illustrate the interannual and decadal sea level variations in the Pacific Ocean and suggested a coupled atmosphere–ocean variability on a decadal time scale in the tropical region with two cycles from 1993 to 2016.

The Tropical Indian Ocean decadal sea level response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation forcing

The tropical Indian Ocean sea level displayed decadal variations in response to Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Contrasting patterns of decadal oscillation in sea level is found during the opposite phases of PDO especially in the thermocline ridge region of the Indian Ocean (TRIO; 50°E–80°E; 15°S–5°S). Epochal mean sea level rise is observed over the TRIO region during the cold phase of PDO (1958–1977), whereas epochal mean sea level fall is observed during the warm phase of PDO (1978–2002). Analysis reveals that the decadal variability in the sea level pattern in the TRIO region is in accordance with the PDO phase shifts and is primarily caused by changes in the surface forcing over the Indian Ocean as a response to PDO. The changes in the large scale Walker circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean region during the different phases of PDO support our hypothesis. The winds and wind stress curl variations associated with these large scale circulation changes are primarily inducing the observed regional decadal sea level variability over TRIO. The decadal forcing through Indonesian Through Flow (ITF; oceanic channel) however did not show any significant impact on the TRIO sea level variability. Further Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) sensitivity experiments are carried out to understand the mechanisms and the possible contribution of the Pacific Ocean through oceanic pathways, in the decadal variability of the TRIO sea level. It is noted that wave propagation from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean through ITF region has contributed to the sea level variations in the eastern Indian Ocean. But on the decadal time scale, tropical Indian Ocean/TRIO sea level is unaffected by decadal variability in the ITF. Moreover, the ITF contribution to the decadal sea level variability in the Indian Ocean is found to be significant only in the region south of 20°S.

The interannual sea level variability in the Indian Ocean as simulated by an Ocean General Circulation Model

ABSTRACTLimited coverage of tide gauge observations and limited length record of altimeter observations remain inadequate for the Indian Ocean sea level variability studies especially for longer periods. This study takes advantage of Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations and ocean reanalysis to explore the interannual variability of sea level in the Indian Ocean. The model simulated sea level anomalies display good correlation with altimetry and reanalysis products. This consistency in model simulations with observations and reanalysis highlights the potential use of this OGCM in understanding the sea level variability. Analysis reveals that co‐occurrence years (years when Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño events co‐occur) contribute significantly towards the interannual variability in the Indian Ocean compared to pure IOD or El Niño events, and are characterized by persistent generation of open ocean downwelling, with maximum signals in the 10° to 5°S region. The OGCM experiments are carried out by modulating the forcing fields over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean to understand the physical mechanisms causing sea level variability. The experiments suggest that the remote forcing from the Pacific Ocean via Indonesian ThroughFlow (ITF) induce significant sea level changes in the southern Indian Ocean only with variability mostly in the decadal time scales and the northern and equatorial Indian Ocean are not affected by ITF. This study also shows that El Niño and IOD‐induced variations in zonal wind stress and wind stress curl mainly contribute the interannual sea level variations in the Indian Ocean. The forcing associated with the co‐occurrence years are multi‐phased with coastal and open ocean forcing. Whereas the pure IOD and El Nino forcing is mainly found only over the open ocean. The decadal variability in the ENSO is primarily responsible for the decadal sea level variability in the Indian Ocean by modulating ITF transport.

Robustness of observation‐based decadal sea level variability in the Indo‐Pacific Ocean

AbstractWe examine the consistency of Indo‐Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation‐based sea level products for the 1960–2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific‐independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

Interannual and long-term sea level variability in the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea

Sea level anomalies (SLAs) derived from satellite observations (over a period of 22 years) and tide gauge data compiled from 66 stations from the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea (SCS) and western Pacific Ocean have been analyzed to study the interannual to long term variation of SLAs in the eastern Indian Ocean and SCS. Spatial patterns of sea level variability on the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean exhibit non-coherent variability with SCS but show coherent variability with western Pacific Ocean. We find coherent variability in interannual SLAs in the Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, Malacca Strait and Java Strait. A large fraction of interannual SLA variations in the eastern SCS and interior SCS is linked to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rest of the region is characterized by small scale interannual variations. The interannual SLAs in the SCS show seasonality with pronounced variation during winter and fall seasons. Interannual surface wind anomalies associated with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO explain sea level interannual variability in the eastern Indian Ocean and SCS. The decadal sea level variability associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and decadal ENSO are observed in the SCS.

Interannual and Decadal Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Level

A notable feature in the first 20-year satellite altimetry records is an anomalously fast sea level rise (SLR) in the western Pacific impacting island nations in this region. This observed trend is due to a combination of internal variability and external forcing. The dominant mode of dynamic sea level (DSL) variability in the tropical Pacific presents as an east-west see-saw pattern. To assess model skill in simulating this variability mode, we compare 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models with 23-year satellite data, 55-year reanalysis products, and 60–year sea level reconstruction. We find that models underestimate variance in the Pacific sea level see-saw, especially at decadal, and longer, time scales. The interannual underestimation is likely due to a relatively low variability in the tropical zonal wind stress. Decadal sea level variability may be influenced by additional factors, such as wind stress at higher latitudes, subtropical gyre position and strength, and eddy heat transport. The interannual variability of the Nino 3.4 index is better represented in CMIP5 models despite low tropical Pacific wind stress variability. However, as with sea level, variability in the Nino 3.4 index is underestimated on decadal time scales. Our results show that DSL should be considered, in addition to sea surface temperature (SST), when evaluating model performance in capturing Pacific variability, as it is directly related to heat content in the ocean column.

Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

Multimodel Ensemble Sea Level Forecasts for Tropical Pacific Islands

AbstractSea level anomaly extremes impact tropical Pacific Ocean islands, often with too little warning to mitigate risks. With El Niño, such as the strong 2015/16 event, comes weaker trade winds and mean sea level drops exceeding 30 cm in the western Pacific that expose shallow-water ecosystems at low tides. Nearly opposite climate conditions accompany La Niña events, which cause sea level high stands (10–20 cm) and result in more frequent tide- and storm-related inundations that threaten coastlines. In the past, these effects have been exacerbated by decadal sea level variability, as well as continuing global sea level rise. Climate models, which are increasingly better able to simulate past and future evolutions of phenomena responsible for these extremes (i.e., El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and greenhouse warming), are also able to describe, or even directly simulate, associated sea level fluctuations. By compiling monthly sea level anomaly predictions from multiple statistical and dynamical (coupled ocean–atmosphere) models, which are typically skillful out to at least six months in the tropical Pacific, improved future outlooks are achieved. From this multimodel ensemble comes forecasts that are less prone to individual model errors and also uncertainty measurements achieved by comparing retrospective forecasts with the observed sea level. This framework delivers online a new real-time forecasting product of monthly mean sea level anomalies and will provide to the Pacific island community information that can be used to reduce impacts associated with sea level extremes.