Debt Trajectory Research Articles

That Squeezing Feeling: The Interest Burden and Public Debt Stabilization

The paper explores the extent to which the pressure of debt service on other spending items may push governments to embark on fiscal consolidation beyond what is strictly necessary to secure solvency. The empirical analysis identifies thresholds of interest bill indicators beyond which governments appear to shift to policies aimed at durably curbing the debt trajectory. Hence, in the current context of high inherited public debts, countries experiencing rising borrowing costs and interest payments would be more likely to enact more aggressive fiscal consolidations than warranted by strict solvency concerns. Conversely, those benefiting from persistently low interest rates despite rising debt stocks would likely opt for a more gradual fiscal consolidation path than what solvency considerations would normally dictate.

Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century

The costs of wars have been the main driver of public debt in the Western World during the modern era. The late twentieth century stands out as a period that saw a pronounced increase of government debt to GDP ratios in peacetime. This paper assesses the role that financial crises have played in shaping the public debt trajectory in the twentieth century. Focusing on the experiences of 14 industrial economies, I show that financial crises have long and lasting effects on public finances. I provide evidence that the costs of financial crises have increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century and that the costs of financial crises grow with the size of the financial sector. In many countries, the rising costs incurred from stabilizing the economy after financial crises were an important cause of the peacetime surge of public debt ratios in the late twentieth century. In today's highly financialized economies, financial crises have become a key risk for public finances.

Investissement à long terme : enjeux pour la croissance, la stabilité monétaire et financière

Alors que l’aversion au risque se maintient à des niveaux très élevés dans les soubresauts de la crise, le besoin d’investissement à long terme n’a peut-être jamais été aussi pressant. Les économies développées, en particulier, doivent résoudre ce dilemme pour retrouver leur sentier de croissance d’avant-crise et faire revenir les dettes publiques sur des trajectoires soutenables. Mais l’investisseur de long terme est devenu une espèce rare et divers facteurs (économiques, règlementaires, fiscaux) se révèlent peu incitatifs. Il a en outre perdu ses repères : la hiérarchie des risques parait plus instable ; les gestionnaires d’actifs et autres intermédiaires financiers ne traduisent qu’imparfaitement ses préférences. L’investissement de long terme est a priori un facteur favorable à la stabilité monétaire et financière, et cette dernière contribue elle-même à créer un environnement favorable. Classification JEL : E44, G11.

Public debt and financial crises in the twentieth century

The costs of wars have been the main driver of public debt in the Western World during the modern era. The late twentieth century stands out as a period that saw a pronounced increase of government debt to GDP ratios in peacetime. This paper assesses the role that financial crises have played in shaping the public debt trajectory in the twentieth century. Focusing on the experiences of 14 industrial economies, I show that financial crises have long and lasting effects on public finances. I provide evidence that the costs of financial crises have increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century and that the costs of financial crises grow with the size of the financial sector. In many countries, the rising costs incurred from stabilizing the economy after financial crises were an important cause of the peacetime surge of public debt ratios in the late twentieth century. In today's highly financialized economies, financial crises have become a key risk for public finances.

Consumption and Uncertain Access to the Asset Market

This paper presents a new approach to modelling credit restrictions by considering uncertain access to the asset market. The asset market and the stochastic process governing access are considered fully exogenous and independent of income. The model generates stable debt trajectories for a broader array of interest rate levels than the one corresponding to the agent's rate of time preference. The agent exhibits excess sensitivity of consumption to current period income, even for low probabilities of constraints. Because this sensitivity is inversely related to the maturity of debt contracts, the availability of long-term debt contracts reduces the income-sensitivity of consumption. A very tractable approximative Euler equation for the model is presented.

Political competition and debt trajectories in Japan and the OECD

Public debt has accumulated rapidly in OECD countries since 1970. We assess the political explanations for debt accumulation, paying particular attention to the US and Japan. The key finding is that political competition explains variation in debt accumulation. Political competition encourages fiscal prudence. Hence, non-competitive countries will build up debt. Thirty years of OECD experience provides strong empirical support for this conjecture, and suggests that high debt levels in Japan are more due to political than economic factors.