Debt Levels Research Articles

Debt and Duration: Why You Should Rethink Your Mix of Short-term Debt

Financing of a business involves several choices and tradeoffs: a key choice that CFOs often make is: “How much debt should we take on to finance our business?” A related question, often neglected is: “What kind of debt?” All forms of lending are not the same and one key dimension of debt is its maturity period. Short-term debt and long-term debt have different impacts on the profitability and valuation of a firm. Do investors demand higher returns on equity if the composition of debt includes more of certain kind of debt? The question has long bothered corporate finance as well as scholars. Recent research by Friewald, Nagler, & Wagner has uncovered an insight that should help CFOs, as it found a clear link between the level of debt, the maturity (ranging from short to long term) of debt and equity returns.1 The essence of their finding is: “… Equity returns increase in short-term leverage but not in long-term leverage”. Meaning that your equity investors expect higher returns on capital, the more your mix of short-term debt increases. In this essay, we explain why this happens, and we outline takeaways for managers of corporate finance. We illustrate how the nature of the industry in which your business operates, impacts your debt financing – both the level, as well as the mix of short- and long-term debt

Political Economy of Tax and Digital Transformations in Pakistan (Special Invited Lecture)

1. THE NEED FOR A COORDINATED TAX AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH STRATEGY I The 1985 National Tax Reform Commission (NTC) recommended a coordinated set of policies on tax policy, administration, and digital transformation to take the tax/GDP ratio from around 14 percent as it was then, to 20 percent by 1990, to underpin a sustainable growth path. The interim report of the NTC called the CBR “the most corrupt of Pakistani institutions.” The final report paid a great deal of attention to the interrelationships between tax evasion, smuggling and corruption. 1 The report emphasised a coordinated approach to reforming all taxes and administration, and that a tax-by-tax approach with tax administration determined separately would not do. Unfortunately, the report was shelved as Pakistan extracted geographic rents from the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan. While the NTC could not have imagined that the tax/GDP ratio would decline after three decades of interactions and support from the IFIs, that the country would find itself on the brink of default consequently, or the depths to which rent-seeking and corruption might plumb. A coordinated approach to multilevel tax policy and administration should also address key political economy challenges if Pakistan is to overcome the current economic crisis and move towards resilient and sustainable growth in the medium term. This is especially critical given the unprecedented “perfect storm” of the pandemic, climate shocks and once in a century floods, and ongoing disruptions in global value chains. The contrast with India is striking. With a general government tax/GDP ratio well above “the tipping point” of around 15 percent, India has been able to run a greater general deficit and much higher overall debt level than Pakistan (see Table 1 and Chart 1), without running into a potential debt crisis. It is important to stress that India by a Constitutional Amendment to harmonise the VAT across subnational jurisdictions has begun to address faults inherited from the pernicious 1935 Government of India Act, that still influences revenue assignments in Pakistan. The increasing geo-political importance of India, and the country’s greater resilience and attractiveness for FDI provide important contrasts and lessons for policy makers in Pakistan.

Natural Disasters and Human Development in Asia–Pacific: The Role of External Debt

The average country in Asia–Pacific experiences more natural disasters than average countries of other developing regions. This paper presents stylized facts on natural disasters, human development, and external debt in Asia–Pacific. The paper also contains estimates of the effects that natural disasters have on human development. Controlling for country- and time-fixed effects, the dynamic panel model estimates show that external debt has a mitigating effect on the adverse impacts that natural disasters have on human development; in countries with low external debt-to-GDP ratios, natural disasters significantly decrease the human development index, but not so in countries with high external debt-to-GDP ratios. External debt (i.e., borrowing from abroad) is a financial contract for obtaining resources from abroad (i.e., imports of goods and services). When a country experiencing a natural disaster borrows from abroad to increase imports of goods and services, the population suffers less when a natural disaster strikes. Natural disasters destroy goods and capital (e.g., food, machinery, buildings, and roads) in the countries in which they occur. If imports of goods and services do not increase, then the population has less goods and services to consume following a natural disaster. By increasing imports, which are mirrored on the financial side by an increase in external debt, the population of a country that was struck by a natural disaster can experience consumption smoothing. As the incidence of natural disasters increases globally, a policy recommendation for disaster-prone countries, supported by the empirical results of this paper, is the need for deeper and innovative mechanisms of access to international financing, including reforms in both domestic and international financial systems. The paper’s most significant contribution is the unique lens through which it analyzes the often-studied subject of natural disasters. Rather than looking at disasters as merely adverse events and debt as an unwelcome obligation in isolation, it connects the two and uncovers the paradoxically positive and beneficial role a healthy level of external debt can play in mitigating the adverse effects of these disasters. It provides a fresh perspective, a shift in thinking that may immensely benefit external debt and disaster management policies.

Follow the Leader: How Culture Gives Rise to a Behavioral Bias That Leads to Higher Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This research investigates the influence of national culture, particularly power distance, on firms’ carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Drawing on a large international dataset spanning over a decade, we examine how power distance, agency conflict, and socioeconomic stability interact to shape firms’ emission decisions. Our analysis reveals a significant positive relationship between power distance and firms’ CO2 emissions, indicating that firms located in countries characterized by higher power distance tend to emit more greenhouse gases (GHGs). Furthermore, we find that agency conflict moderates this relationship, with firms experiencing high levels of debt or paying substantial dividends exhibiting lower emissions in high power distance environments. Additionally, socioeconomic stability attenuates the positive association between power distance and emissions, suggesting that the effectiveness of cultural influences on emission decisions is contingent upon the stability of the societal context. These findings underscore the importance of considering cultural dimensions, agency dynamics, and socioeconomic conditions in understanding corporate environmental behavior. Our research contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the nuanced interplay between national culture, agency conflict, and socioeconomic stability in shaping firms’ emission decisions. Policymakers and practitioners can use these insights to develop more targeted environmental policies and strategies aimed at promoting sustainable development globally.

Working capital balances and financial policy

A firm's working-capital account balances demonstrate substantial connections with its financial policy. Receivables and inventories are associated with lower asset volatility and higher future cash flow, and correlate with increased leverage. Conversely, payables show a positive association with shareholder return volatility and a negative correlation with future cash flow and are linked to decreased debt levels. In dynamic panel regressions estimated with system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), a one standard-deviation increase in payables (receivables) is associated with a 0.42 (0.66) standard-deviation decrease (increase) in leverage. Furthermore, higher levels of inventories and receivables are linked with higher firm credit ratings, along with a preference for debt financing over equity issuance, while increased payables are linked with lower credit ratings and a tendency to favor equity financing over debt financing. The QuickPay regulatory shock, expediting payments and reducing receivables' volume and quality, diminished their collateral role and lowered debt sensitivity to receivables.

DETERMINANTS OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE LITERACY STUDY MANUFACTURING IN INDONESIA

This research aims to analyze the impact of industry type, debt levels, and sales volatility on a company's ability to predict and maintain profits over time. Because profit persistence is the main determinant of the sustainability of a company's profitability and the quality of its financial reporting, this research is very important. The research population is manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2019 and 2022. Purposive sampling is the approach used for sampling, and a total of 23 companies or 83 observations for the sample were selected. Multiple linear regression analysis is the analysis method used. The research results show that company size, as a control variable, has a positive impact on earnings persistence, sales volatility has a negative impact, while debt level and industry type have a positive effect on earnings persistence. Overall, this research has significant consequences for decision making, financial statement analysis, and profit prediction for future periods.

The Influence of Capital Structure, Company Growth and Company Value on Share Prices in Coal Sub-Sector Companies Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2018-2023

This study aims to empirically investigate the impact of Capital Structure, Company Growth, and Company Value on stock prices. Employing a quantitative descriptive research method with a verificative approach, the study utilizes panel data regression analysis to examine these relationships. The research focuses on Coal Sub-Sector Companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2018 to 2023, encompassing a sample of 12 companies. The findings reveal that Capital Structure negatively influences stock prices, indicating that higher debt levels may detract from stock value. Conversely, Company Growth is found to have no significant effect on stock prices, suggesting that growth metrics do not necessarily translate to market valuation in this sector. In contrast, Company Value exerts a positive impact on stock prices, demonstrating that higher valuation metrics are associated with increased stock prices. These results provide valuable insights for investors and stakeholders in the coal sub-sector, highlighting the critical factors that drive stock price movements and offering a basis for more informed investment decisions.

The Significance of the Financial Situation of Local Government Units for Their Energy Transition Activities: The Case of the Podkarpackie Region

This paper discusses the financial determinants of the efforts of local government units (LGUs) to invest in the area of energy transition (ET). The main objective is to verify the links between the scale, directions, and funding sources of LGUs’ investments in ET and their budgetary situation described by the level of income independence, budget result, and debt level. The general research hypothesis assumes that the ET investment activity of LGUs is associated with their financial situation. The analysis covers the period 2019–2022 and uses data from the questionnaire-based survey conducted in 2023 among 181 LGUs in the Podkarpackie region in southern Poland. Non-parametric tests were employed to verify the association between the LGUs’ ET investment activity and their financial situation: the Chi2 test, the Mann–Whitney U test, the Kruskal–Wallis test, and the Kendall’s Tau correlation. Financial aspects were shown to influence the scale of municipal ET investments, as well as the type of projects implemented. Among the analysed financial indicators, the debt level was the most important constraint for LGUs to make their own ET investments. The debt level not only determined the scale of municipal ET investment, but also influenced decisions on the type of investments.

Pengaruh Book Tax Differences Dan Tingkat Hutang Terhadap Persistensi Laba Pada Perusahaan Sektor Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2019 - 2023

In the decision-making process, information about profits plays an important role. The right decision often depends on the quality of the earnings information itself. Quality profits are profits that can provide an accurate indication of future porfit estimates. Consistency in earnings indicates superior earnings quality over time. In addition, differences between recorded profits in books and profits subject to tax (book tax differences) can affect profit persistance due to differences in the recognitions of incopme and costs according to accounting standards and tax regulations. Apart from that, another factor that also has the potential to influence profit persistence is the company’s debt level. In an effort to explore the impact of book tax differences, as well as debt levels on earnings persistence, this research was conducted with a clear aim. The method in used is a careful quantitative approach. The population studied included companies in the banking sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) during the period 2019 to 2023. The sample selection procedure was carried out using SPSS 26 software to analyze the patterns that emerged. From the results of the analysis that has been carried out, it was found that there is a significant and positive influence between the difference between profit recognition in financial statements and tax imposition on the resilience of company profits. On the other hand, ther is no significant relationship between the level of company debt and earnings resilience measured in this research.

Indian Fiscal Federalism and Resource Gap of State Governments: Measurement and Analysis

This article examines the various forms of basic resource gap (BRG) and fiscal dependency in a long-term panel framework, comprising 14 major Indian states from 1981–82 to 2016–17. Further, it decomposes the level and extent of states’ fiscal dependence on transfers and borrowings, which together constitute the total non-own source of revenue on a disaggregated level into three different phases to gain a thorough understanding of the states’ vulnerability and the quality of dependence. The findings show that among the 14 states, Odisha, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh are leading the way in reducing the BRG during the third sub-period. Odisha’s fiscal dependency has decreased faster and has been sustained to a greater extent than in the other states. In contrast, the accumulation of unsustainably higher levels of debt and guarantees is an issue of concern in West Bengal, Punjab and Kerala, where discretionary sources of revenue have increased significantly in recent decades. The study finds that, despite several incentive-based reform measures, the BRG persists, with mounting fiscal challenges besides a decline in non-debt capital receipts across the Indian states.

ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC DEBT DRIVERS IN THE BALKANS

This study investigates the main drivers of public debt and assesses the overall debt structure in the Balkan countries. Regardless of a close to 50% average debt level, there is no immediate threat of escalation compared to developed countries. The empirical analysis leverages three advanced econometric techniques to control for cross-country specifics and potential biases due to data disruptions. Sourced from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the data are of quantitative type collected from 2000- 2021. Empirical evidence suggests that Real GDP Growth and Current Account balance are crucial determinants of economic performance, with political regimes also exerting a notable influence. As the time frame of the research consists of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential to consider structural breakdowns to avoid any coefficient biases. Unsurprisingly, the dummy variable COVID-19 depicts a significant effect as public debt increased by 2.51 percentage points once the pandemic occurred. The rest of the variables, including interest rates, government expenditure, and unemployment rate, are statistically insignificant. Empirical evidence from the present study supports the hypothesis that pursuing genuine economic development through the advocacy of domestic production and trade, coupled with the consolidation of democratic institutions, can act as a check on the spiraling growth of public debt.

Financial Development in the Face of Rising Public Debt in Ghana: A Qualitative Study

This qualitative study explored the relationship between financial development and public debt within the context of Ghana. It sought to comprehend the impact of rising public debt on financial development and the broader implications for economic growth and stability in Ghana, a lower middle-income country grappling with high debt levels and fiscal challenges. The study thus employed a qualitative research paradigm, gathering data through face-to-face interviews with sixteen (16) economic and financial experts from five (5) prominent banks in Ghana. This method allowed for an in-depth appreciation of the subjective perceptions and insights of stakeholders directly involved in or affected by Ghana’s financial and public debt management sectors. Ethical considerations were meticulously adhered to, ensuring informed consent and confidentiality of the participants. The study revealed a moderate pace of financial development hindered by high-interest rates and limited access to credit. Public debt was perceived as excessively high, posing significant financial stability and economic growth risks. Policy recommendations from the study emphasize the need for fiscal discipline, improved regulatory frameworks, enhanced financial inclusion, and strategic investment in infrastructure and education. This study contributes to the literature by providing a qualitative insight into the complex dynamics between financial development and public debt in Ghana, a topic that has been less explored in empirical studies, especially from a qualitative perspective.

Socioeconomic Influence on Physical Therapist Student Financial Literacy, Self-Efficacy, Stress, and Anxiety.

Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) students have considerable educational debt upon graduation with suspected low levels of financial literacy, limited financial self-efficacy, and elevated stress and anxiety. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationships between financial knowledge, financial anxiety, financial stress, and financial self-efficacy with socioeconomic determinants in DPT students. Five hundred seventy-eight DPT students, surveyed through a cross-sectional sample of convenience. Participants responded to a 40-item demographic questionnaire providing a self-assessment of their current financial literacy, financial self-efficacy, financial anxiety, financial stress, and level of general social support. Pairwise correlations were used to determine the relationship between independent variables and composite scores on self-assessment tools. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to predict financial knowledge, self-efficacy, anxiety, stress, and social support by socioeconomic indicators and educational debt status. While there was a moderate, positive association between presence of debt and financial self-efficacy and financial anxiety for all students (r = .55), there was no statistically significant difference in financial knowledge, self-efficacy, anxiety, stress, or social support for students based on race/ethnicity. There was a negligible to weak correlation between financial knowledge, financial self-efficacy, and level of financial anxiety based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic background, debt load, risk tolerance, and retirement reflection. When subjected to multiple regression analysis, the level of education-related debt could explain a large proportion of the variance in multiple measures, including financial self-efficacy, anxiety, and stress. Economic background explained a large proportion of variance in the general social support students felt. We found a strong, positive correlation between the presence of debt and financial stress and anxiety for all DPT student respondents. While there is no difference in financial literacy and self-efficacy based on race and ethnic background, there is a moderate correlation between self-efficacy and financial anxiety for all students. Education on strategies to manage debt load may reduce both factors.

Price to Book Value Drives Stock Prices in Indonesia, While DER and PER Falter

This study examines the impact of the Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Price to Book Value (PBV), and Price Earning Ratio (PER) on stock prices of food and beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2016 to 2018. Using secondary data from financial reports and statistical analysis via SPSS 23, the research found that DER does not significantly affect stock prices, PBV positively influences stock prices, and PER has no significant impact. These findings suggest that investors prioritize market confidence and financial prospects (as indicated by PBV) over debt levels and earnings ratios when making investment decisions in this sector. Highlights: 1. DER Impact: Debt to Equity Ratio does not affect stock prices significantly.2. PBV Significance: Price to Book Value positively influences stock prices.3. PER Irrelevance: Price Earning Ratio does not impact stock prices significantly. Keywords: Debt to Equity Ratio, Price to Book Value, Price Earning Ratio, Stock Prices, Indonesia Stock Exchange

Precarious Tightrope Between External Debt and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

In recent years, the foreign debt in South Asian economies has risen to concerning levels, suggesting that these governments are unable to generate enough revenues to finance their budget, which could most likely increase the risks of a debt crisis. This study looks at the relationship between foreign debt and the economic growth of two South Asian countries—Sri Lanka and Bangladesh—using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models from the period of 1984 to 2022. The comparative results demonstrate a persistent detrimental impact of foreign debt on both countries' economic growth trajectories. Moreover, our research emphasizes the importance of the debt-to-ԌDP ratio, suggesting that a higher percentage of external debt increases the adverse impact on ԌDP growth. The study compares the external debt levels of both countries and its consequences on their economies. Both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka suffer negative consequences from external debt. However, the study indicates that Sri Lanka, burdened with heavier debt, experiences a more pronounced impact on its economic growth trend as compared to Bangladesh. The study aims to address the pressing issue of rising foreign debt in South Asian economies, provide empirical evidence of its impact on economic growth, and offer policy recommendations. The findings have implications for both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, emphasizing the importance of managing debt effectively.

PENGARUH TINGKAT HUTANG, INTENSITAS MODAL DAN TRANSFER PRICING TERHADAP PENGHINDARAN PAJAK (STUDI EMPIRIS PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR SEKTOR INDUSTRI BARANG KONSUMSI YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI TAHUN 2017-2021)

This study aims to determine the effect of the level of debt. Capital Intensity and Transfer Pricing Simultaneously on Tax Avoidance and Partial Effect of Debt Level Capital Intensity and Transfer Pricing on Tax Avoidance This type of research is quantitative in nature, and the data used are secondary data using the media in the form of financial statements of manufacturing companies taken from IDX. The population used in this study are manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2017-2021 period, data management using eviews 9. Based on the results of the tests conducted, the debt level variable is simultaneously variable. capital intensity and transfer pricing have an effect on tax avoidance with a probability value (F-Statistic) of 0.016493 0.05. Capital intensity has an effect on tax avoidance with a probability value of 0.0018 < 0.05, transfer pricing has no effect on tax avoidance with a probability value of 0.3186 > 0.05.

The Impact of Industrial Characteristics on the Capital Structure

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial characteristics and capital structure. The author selected three industries with totally different features as examples and discussed how their particular industrial functions can make a significant difference in leverage ratio. These industrial characteristics are only related to the industry, such as business model and financial statements structure, regardless of the firms size, business performance, and profitability, which can be calculated and measured. Using high-tech-driven, asset-intensive, and labor-intensive industries as samples to analyze their influences on firms leverage ratios. Their industry characteristics can explain the difference in leverage, as asset-intensive companies have the highest average level of debt while labor-intensive has the lowest one. However, the industries cannot account for all diversities in capital structure, and there are difficulties in discovering the perfect capital structure that can meet all requirements and has the lowest cost under current literature. It is necessary to ascertain all factors that will affect the capital structure and evaluate the extent of their influences in future research.

Earn More Tomorrow: Overconfidence, Income Expectations, and Consumer Indebtedness

AbstractThis paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt taking. We show suggestive evidence for a link between overconfidence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey of German households (German Socio‐Economic Panel–Innovation Sample [GSOEP‐IS]). This motivates a laboratory experiment to study causality behind these effects. In two experiments, participants can purchase goods by borrowing against their future income. We exogenously manipulate overconfidence about income expectations by letting income depend on relative performance in hard and easy quiz tasks. In the main experiment, we successfully generate biased income expectations and show that participants with higher income expectations initially borrow more. Overconfident participants scale back their consumption after income feedback. However, they remain in higher debt at the end of the experiment, which has real financial consequences. In a robustness experiment, we rule out that overborrowing is driven by low prices of goods. Even though the expected income manipulation works less well in this experiment, debt‐taking behavior is very similar and correlates with income expectations and overconfidence.

Mirroring the urban exodus: The impact of return migration on rural entrepreneurship

This study explores the impact of internal return migration on rural household entrepreneurship in China, utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey. Analysis reveals that return migration significantly increases the likelihood of rural households initiating businesses, with education and household debt levels acting as key moderators. The findings suggest that return migration can act as a catalyst for rural entrepreneurship, highlighting the importance of targeted educational and financial support for returnees. The research underscores the potential of return migration to contribute to rural economic development, advocating for policies that facilitate the reintegration of migrants into rural economies.

Exploring minimal indirect digital economy taxation as a post-COVID-19 economic recovery strategy for African revenue mobilisation

The COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath continue to devastate most areas of society and continue to reveal inherent structural vulnerabilities in the economies, social, and health systems in countries. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict of 2022 and the geopolitics of its resolution continue to create shocks across the globe- evidenced by rising inflation, increased sovereign debt level, recession, and reduced public expenditure among others. While many sectors of the economy were crippled by the back-to-back global economic shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict through reduced economic activities resulting in a global recession and reduced tax revenues for public expenditure, the digital economy has surprisingly boomed and continues to grow in this period of uncertainty. This has been directly attributed to the 'lure of the alternative', caused by the social and economic lockdowns imposed by countries, which pushed many persons and companies to explore the next available option- online platforms to conduct business. Although the rise in the use of digital platforms for business activities is commendable, this development has some implications for traditional business frameworks which in turn affects revenue mobilisation for funding public infrastructure projects and services. This is because, in Africa, the digital economy is not as well-regulated as the traditional economy. This creates an avenue for tax evasion and avoidance, arising from the dynamic and complex nature of digital transactions. This challenge requires that urgent solutions be found for the effective taxation of the digital economy. There will be a need to review/reform economic and fiscal policies and laws to ensure a faster recovery from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. There would also be a need to create digital tax policies that are equitable for source and market jurisdictions and, lastly, there will be a need for cooperation in tax law and policies across Africa that capture the reality of the growth and ubiquitous presence of digital multinationals in Africa.