Debt Levels Research Articles

Impact of US Trade with China on Shareholders’ Wealth: Insights from Shipment Data in the COVID-19 Era

This study analyzes the impact of Chinese shipment volumes measured in TEUs on US stock performance in the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. The analysis indicates that, initially, US stocks were negatively affected irrespective of firms’ trade engagements with China; however, as the global pandemic unfolded, companies with elevated imports from China exhibited more pronounced abnormal returns. The findings further reveal an increased influence of debt level and cash holdings on stock performance as the crisis intensified in Europe and the USA. These results highlight the evolving nature of global trade dynamics and their implications for financial markets amid global crises. Furthermore, this study provides valuable insights into the resilience of global supply chains during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. The observed pattern, where companies with greater import volumes from China experienced better stock returns, underscores the importance of adaptable supply chains during disruptions.

THE INFLUENCE OF OPERATIONAL CASH FLOW, LEVELS OF DEBT, AND FIRM SIZE ON EARNINGS PERSISTENCE (EMPIRICAL STUDY OF PROPERTY AND REAL ESTATE COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE, 2019-2021)

This study aims to examine the effect of Operational Cash Flow, Debt Level and Firm Size on Earnings Persistence. The population used in this research is all Property and Real Estate Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2019-2021. The sample in this study was 36 units using purposive sampling method. Testing the hypothesis in this study using multiple linear regression analysis using SPSS version 26. The results of this study indicate that Operational Cash Flow and Firm Size have a significant positive effect on earnings persistence, while the level of debt has no significant effect on earnings persistence and. Operational Cash Flow, Debt Level and Firm S simultaneously have a significant effect on earnings persistence.
 
 Keywords: Earning Persistence, Operating Cash Flow, Debt Level and Firm Size

Determinants of public health expenditure in the EU.

Public health expenditure is one of the fastest-growing spending items in EU member states. As the population ages and wealth increases, governments allocate more resources to their health systems. In view of this, the aim of this study is to identify the key determinants of public health expenditure in the EU member states. This study is based on macro-level EU panel data covering the period from 2000 to 2018. The association between explanatory variables and public health expenditure is analyzed by applying both static and dynamic econometric modeling. Although GDP and out-of-pocket health expenditure are identified as the key drivers of public health expenditure, there are other variables, such as health system characteristics, with a statistically significant association with expenditure. Other variables, such as election year and the level of public debt, result to exert only a modest influence on the level of public health expenditure. Results also indicate that the aging of the population, political ideologies of governments and citizens' expectations, appear to be statistically insignificant. Since increases in public health expenditure in EU member states are mainly triggered by GDP increases, it is expected that differences in PHE per capita across member states will persist and, consequently, making it more difficult to attain the health equity sustainable development goal. Thus, measures to reduce EU economic inequalities, will ultimately result in reducing disparities in public health expenditures across member states.

Does household debt affect the size of the fiscal multiplier?

Abstract Does household debt affect the size of the fiscal multiplier? We investigate the effects of household debt on government spending multipliers using a smooth transition vector autoregression model. Through generalized impulse response functions, we measure whether the effect of government spending on GDP is conditioned by different levels of household debt in Australia, Sweden, and Norway, three countries with high levels of household indebtedness, and in the world’s seven largest economies. Our results indicate that the short-term effects of government spending tend to be higher if fiscal expansion takes place during periods of low household debt. On average, the fiscal multiplier (on impact) is 0.70, 0.61, and 0.79 (percent of GDP) larger when the increase in government spending takes place during periods of low household debt for Australia, Norway, and the United States.

The loss of political connections and the fluctuation of corporate stock prices: Moderating effect based on media attention

This article examines the impact and mechanism of political connections on stock price fluctuations after the resignation of independent directors with “official” status, based on the exogenous influence of Document No. 18 of the Central Organization Department. Using panel data of A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2012 to 2020, the experimental group and control group for political affiliation deficiency events were determined through propensity score matching (PSM), and a quasi natural experiment was constructed using differences in differences (DID) for empirical research. By examining the relationship between regional financial development, lack of political connections, and stock price fluctuations, we found that regions with higher levels of financial development are more prone to stock price fluctuations due to the lack of political connections, which is related to higher levels of debt financing in regions with higher levels of financial development. In addition, the increasing level of debt exacerbates conflicts and inconsistencies among stakeholders, which is not conducive to the stability of the company's stock price. Through the above research, relevant suggestions have been provided to enterprises, media, and governments. For example, enterprises should clarify the boundary between government and enterprise, focus on long-term strategic goals, build core competitiveness, and thereby enhance their own value; The media should play a correct role in information transmission and public opinion guidance, and play a positive role in the economic development of the industry; The government should promote market-oriented construction and establish positive government enterprise relationships.

The impact of the heterogenous fiscal policy stance of euro-area member states on ECB monetary policy

This article assesses the influence of the fiscal stance of different euro-area members on the monetary policy actions of the European Central Bank. This issue has increased in relevance due to the widening disparities in the levels of debt across euro-area member states. We utilise a thick modelling approach that includes various GMM model specifications for the five largest euro area economies using quarterly projections data from 2002 to 2022. The findings indicate that the fiscal deficits of different euro area countries did not consistently exert a substantial impact on monetary policymaking. This conclusion holds even after the COVID-19 shock, with projected inflation remaining the most consistently significant indicator.

Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Countries in Asia and the South Pacific

Abstract This study examines the relationship between trade openness and economic growth across selected Asian and South Pacific countries from 2000 to 2021. Key indicators on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, foreign debt, export values, and inflation are analyzed for insights into economic dynamics. Positive correlations between foreign debt and export values suggest export utilization to alleviate debt. Conversely, negative correlations between inflation and export values underscore challenges during inflationary periods, emphasizing need for effective inflation management. Fixed Effects Model analysis unveils coefficients for independent variables, highlighting their impact on GDP. The study's explanatory power, measured by the R-squared value, underscores the collective influence of these variables on GDP variation. Policy implications stress the importance of export promotion strategies to bolster revenue amidst high foreign debt levels. Effective inflation management is vital to maintain export competitiveness. Prudent debt management emerges as crucial for economic stability. Future research should explore nuanced mechanisms linking trade openness and economic growth, tailored to each country's economic context. This approach can inform targeted policy recommendations, acknowledging diversity among nations. Globally, the study emphasizes interconnectedness among countries and the significance of collaborative efforts to navigate shared challenges and capitalize on mutual opportunities in the global economy. Keywords: Trade openness, Economic growth, Gross domestic product, Foreign debt, Fixed effects model.

Service Outsourcing and Government Fiscal Conditions: Do Market Competition, Bureaucrat Support, and Management Capacity Matter?

Scholars have long regarded government fiscal stress as a crucial factor driving public service outsourcing; however, further investigation is still needed to determine whether service outsourcing in turn helps governments improve fiscal conditions. Public choice theory suggests that outsourcing services can lead to efficiency improvement and cost savings. Nevertheless, transaction costs theory implies that the costs associated with service outsourcing may offset or even outweigh its potential benefits. Moreover, the extent of transaction costs depends on contextual factors such as market competition, bureaucrat support, and government management capacity. Empirically, we employ an instrumental variable estimation approach to examine the impact of service outsourcing on the budget balances and debt levels of U.S. municipalities. We find that service outsourcing improves government fiscal conditions, with contextual factors playing an important role in moderating this effect. Additionally, outsourcing services to different types of contractors has varying implications for government fiscal conditions.

Towards Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): The Impact of Debts on Income Inequality in Africa

The Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a framework for the creation of a better and sustainable future for all. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) focus on addressing global challenges, including income inequality. Among others, the SDGs also commit countries to work towards reducing income inequality and as such, lowering income inequality is one of the key issues in Africa. However, given the high levels of debt on the continent, reducing income inequality could be a challenge. Majority of the literature examines the link between debts and economic growth with little attention paid to the impact of debts on income inequality. Moreover, not much is known on whether the relationship between debt and income inequality is non–linear. This study therefore contributes to the existing research efforts by investigating the threshold effects of debts using data from 24 African countries by relying on the sample splitting and threshold estimation approach. The results reveal that, while debts generally dampen income inequality, unbridled debt accumulation above the estimated thresholds does not decrease income inequality, indicating that the income inequality–reducing impact holds at lower levels of debt–to–GDP ratio. This evidence is insensitive to different indicators of income inequality and debts. Findings from this study show how increasing indebtedness contributes to widening income inequality in Africa.

The Influence of Company Size, Profitability, And Sales Growth on Capital Structure

This study investigates the impact of firm size, profitability, and sales growth on capital structure in the context of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period of 2019-2022. The study aims to provide insights into the factors that influence the capital structure decisions of mining companies in Indonesia. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the official website of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely www.idx.co.id. The sample size for this research is 11 companies, selected using purposive sampling technique. The findings of the study reveal that firm size has a significant effect on capital structure, indicating that larger firms tend to have a higher level of debt in their capital structure. However, the study finds no significant relationship between profitability and sales growth with capital structure. These results suggest that mining companies in Indonesia may prioritize firm size when making capital structure decisions, while profitability and sales growth may not be significant factors in determining their capital structure. The implications of these findings are important for mining companies in Indonesia, as they provide insights into the factors that influence their capital structure decisions. By understanding the impact of firm size on capital structure, companies can make informed decisions about their debt financing and equity financing options. Additionally, the findings suggest that profitability and sales growth may not be significant factors in determining capital structure, which may help companies to focus on other factors when making capital structure decisions.

The probability of Chapter 11 firms refiling again: a censored hazard approach

ABSTRACT Firms seeking bankruptcy protection for the second time may seem inefficient, particularly for courts and other key stakeholders involved in the debtor firm’s reorganization process. In our study, we analyse the survival and hazard patterns of firms that applied for a second bankruptcy protection, after emerging successfully from their first. Debtor firms surviving 33 months after emerging from their first bankruptcy protection are less likely to refile again. We note evidence of firms’ debt levels being the main financial characteristic connected with refiling. When we control for the introduction of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, we report no significant impact on firm recidivism. We identify a structural break with respect to factors determining the probability of refiling: around 2018 firm size and pre-agreed bankruptcy negotiations stopped being a significant characteristic to firms refiling for the second time. Overall, we note that the financial/non-financial characteristics affecting the first filing does not necessarily apply to their second filing. Such findings have implications for policy-makers and key stakeholders.

The Financial Collapse of Capitalism

This paper will argue that the current level of international debt is a huge ‘bubble’ waiting to burst, and that, if and when it does so, the entire financial structure of global capitalism will collapse, taking capitalism, as such, with it. The mechanism of this collapse, if it occurs, will be a collapse of the international banking system, and complete loss of confidence on the exchange markets in any form of reserve currency – either the US dollar or any putative replacement for it.

Survival dynamics of SMES supported by credit guarantee schemes: Insights from Morocco

The aim of this study is to assess the viability of SMEs that had benefited from bank loans backed by credit guarantee schemes. A quantitative approach has been adopted by the study. The sample comprised 398 Moroccan SMEs that had benefited from this type of financing, and the primary objective was to examine their survival over the ten years following the obtaining of these guarantees. Logistic regression was used to reflect several results. The results of the study highlight several factors influencing the probability of survival of these SMEs. Larger amounts of credit promote financial resilience and growth, thereby increasing the likelihood of business survival. Business profitability is a key factor in the likelihood of survival. Profitable businesses attract more investors and lenders, improving access to credit and increasing survival prospects. Contrary to some studies, high levels of debt do not appear to reduce the probability of survival. Similarly, repayment capacity showed no significant link with survival, suggesting the importance of other non-financial factors. Mature and well-considered management decision making is associated with a higher probability of survival. Well-thought-out decisions promote the long-term viability of businesses. Small SMEs also have a good chance of survival because of their rapid adaptability. A manager’s active participation in a company’s capital is linked to a higher probability of survival. This underlines the importance of the personal involvement of the manager and of solid governance.

Debt‐based welfare: Debt‐to‐asset relationships across Black and White households in the United States

AbstractUnder neoliberal social provision, debt has become a primary tool for US households to pursue economic mobility and manage risk. Borrowing supports financial and non‐financial investments that, in theory, should lead to lifetime income and asset gains from which debt can be repaid. Many scholars argue, however, that reliance on credit as a welfare tool significantly increases inequality, particularly along racial lines. In this paper, I examine this process of debt‐financed asset accumulation by analyzing racial disparities in the relationship between household debt and assets. Using Survey of Consumer Finances data, I examine disparities in assets held at given debt levels across Black and White households. Results indicate that at equal debt levels, Black households' assets are between 30% and 80% lower than those of comparable White households. This suggests that White households benefit considerably more from social policies that center borrowing as a mechanism of social provision. This likely contributes to the persistence of the racial wealth gap. Racial disparities in access to credit, to homeownership, and to non‐market financial transfers like inheritances partly explain White households' higher returns, but racial gaps remain even when accounting for these factors.

Management of the maximum level of debt in female heads of family whoare victims of forced disappearance in Caquetá

Introducción: el presente artículo hace parte de una investigación que aborda la gestión del endeudamiento formal e informal y el impacto en la salud mental de un grupo de mujeres víctimas del conflicto armado quienes pertenecen a la asociación FAVIDESC en la ciudad de Florencia, Caquetá. En tal sentido, la salud mental involucra sus niveles de estrés, ansiedad y depresión producto de la toma de decisiones financiera. Metodología: La investigación por tanto se caracteriza por ser de tipo descriptiva – trasversal y enfoque mixto (cuantitativo y cualitativo) que toma como población objetivo a 27 mujeres víctimas de desaparición forzada a quienes se aplicarán instrumentos como el cuestionario estructural tetradimensional para la depresión CETDE y la Escala de depresión, ansiedad y estrés (DASS-21); muestra producto de la aplicación de un muestreo no probabilístico de tipo juicio cuyo criterio de inclusión es ser madres cabeza de familia como único criterio de inclusión del estudio. Resultados: se obtuvo que, hay una tendencia determinada a padecer depresión por el grupo de 20 personas que presentan dificultad económica.

COVID-19 effects and home-grown policy response in Sri Lanka

The paper examines the fascinating case of middle-income Sri Lanka with pre-existing macroeconomic weaknesses hit by COVID-19. The pandemic created a public health emergency and an economic crisis in 2020, causing economic damage and dampening Sri Lanka’s development prospects. The evidence shows a sudden growth contraction, a steep rise in poverty, falling women’s employment, worsening macroeconomic imbalances, and high external debt levels rising. Rather than requesting early IMF assistance for its balance of payments problems, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government opted for home-grown remedies including ultra-loose monetary policy, import controls, bilateral swaps and loans, and a ban on fertilizer imports. The unconventional policy mix temporarily mitigated economic scaring from COVID-19 and supported the economy. But the distortions introduced by prolonging this unconventional mix and the Russia-Ukraine conflict shock pushed Sri Lankan economy into external debt default, a worsening economic crisis and Rajapaksa’s resignation in 2022.

The financialization of local government debt in China and its risk transmission to commercial banks

China's local government debt has risen sharply due to fiscal stimulus and decentralized financing. This debt expansion increases systemic risk as default risk is transmitted to banks, the primary holders of local debt. Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model incorporating local governments and banks, we show that local debt expansion increases banks' nonperforming loans and crowds out private credit, increasing bank risk-taking. We empirically examine 2010–2019 data on 350 Chinese banks and find that the level of local debt positively impacts bank risk-taking, especially low-capital, nonstate, and unlisted banks. The mechanisms operate through an increase in nonperforming loans due to default risk and a reduced regional repayment capacity due to crowded-out private credit. Our study reveals the impact of local debt on bank risk and financial stability in China. Policy implications include strengthening bank regulation and pursuing diversified government financing.

Features of the Association between Debt and Earnings Quality for Small and Medium-Sized Entities

The main source of financing is bank loans for Portuguese small and medium-sized entities (SMEs), which implies several constraints to obtaining additional funds. Relying on the argument of Positive Accounting Theory (PAT) that accounting choices are not neutral and on Agency Theory that information asymmetry prevails between insiders and outsiders, we analyzed the impacts of debt on earnings quality, focusing on its level, its increases, and its term of payment. We estimated econometric regressions using panel data with fixed effects over 2013–2019, using discretionary accruals as an inverse proxy of earnings quality. We found empirical evidence that the relationship between debt and earnings quality tends to vary in sign, as the quality of financial information deteriorates with debt, but as debt becomes high, firms tend to increase the quality of earnings. Furthermore, we found that short-term debt tends to decrease earnings quality more than long-term debt. This article aimed to contribute to the prior literature by collecting evidence that debt levels tend to be an incentive to increase earnings management and fill the gap by analyzing the influence of different debt features. This evidence is useful because earnings management may compromise both stakeholders’ confidence and the efficient allocation of capital.

Federal Student Loan Debt in Public Health and the Opportunities for Loan Repayment Programs.

A need persists for graduates with public health training in government public health roles; however, earnings for these positions tend to be lower when compared with earnings for people with undergraduate or graduate training who are working in other sectors, such as private health care or pharmaceuticals. This study assessed federal student loan debt associated with education for public health, with an aim to quantify the need that may be met through the federal Public Health Workforce Loan Repayment Program (PHWLRP), which is one tool that policy makers have proposed to incentivize people with public health training to pursue employment in government public health. We analyzed federal student loan data provided by the National Center for Education Statistics College Scorecard for the 2018-2019 academic year. We merged these data with the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System to estimate the number of degrees awarded. We used Spearman rank correlation to compare associations between debt and annual earnings by award level (bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degrees). Across all award levels, the median level of federal student loan debt associated with education for public health was $33 366. The median annual earnings 1 year after graduation were $80 687 for graduates with doctoral degrees and $33 279 for graduates with bachelor's degrees. As policy makers attempt to strengthen the public health workforce with a focus on funding and implementing the PHWLRP, the existing levels of student debt should be considered to ensure that programs such as the PHWLRP are funded and reflect the needs of graduates and government public health employers.

The impact of biological asset disclosures and economic sustainability on firm value: Evidence from agricultural companies in Indonesia

This research aims to investigate whether biological asset reporting and the economic sustainability of the firm affect its value. In accordance with the Indonesian Statement of Financial Accounting Standard 69 (PSAK 69), corporations are required to disclose their methods of recognizing and valuing the fair market value of assets pertaining to living things such as plants or animals. Hence, whether biological asset disclosure impacts investors’ decisions to value the firm is the focus of the study. The study also examines if PSAK 69 increased agricultural corporations’ biological asset disclosure. The comparison test shows that PSAK 69 increased the disclosure. The Altman Z-rating probability of bankruptcy is a proxy for economic sustainability. Utilizing 56 listed agricultural firms from 2017 to 2020 as a sample, the regression analysis reveals that biological asset disclosure does not influence firm value. Instead, economic sustainability and other financial indicators such as profitability and the level of debt affect the value of the firm. The results imply that the agricultural corporation’s reputation in the eyes of shareholders is dependent upon its economic sustainability instead of the dissemination of information on its biological assets. The research provides insight into the non-value relevance of biological asset reporting in the context of Indonesia.