The impact of the heterogenous fiscal policy stance of euro-area member states on ECB monetary policy

Abstract

This article assesses the influence of the fiscal stance of different euro-area members on the monetary policy actions of the European Central Bank. This issue has increased in relevance due to the widening disparities in the levels of debt across euro-area member states. We utilise a thick modelling approach that includes various GMM model specifications for the five largest euro area economies using quarterly projections data from 2002 to 2022. The findings indicate that the fiscal deficits of different euro area countries did not consistently exert a substantial impact on monetary policymaking. This conclusion holds even after the COVID-19 shock, with projected inflation remaining the most consistently significant indicator.