Debt Market Research Articles

ESG disclosure and financial performance in debt market: evidence from the oil and gas industry

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the relationship between environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings and corporate bond credit spreads within the oil and gas (O&G) industry. Given the sector’s significant environmental impact and the current energy transition, it is crucial to understand how ESG disclosure affects financial performance, particularly in terms of debt market dynamics. This research aims to provide empirical evidence on whether ESG efforts by O&G companies influence their cost of borrowing.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data from Refinitiv for the period 2018–2022. To address potential endogeneity issues, we utilize two-stage-least-squares regressions. The analysis focuses on corporate bond spreads as the dependent variable and ESG as the key independent variable.FindingsOur findings indicate a negative association between ESG disclosure and corporate bond spreads. Specifically, companies with higher ESG ratings tend to experience lower credit spreads, suggesting that improved ESG practices may lead to reduced borrowing costs. Additionally, the results show that non-state-owned companies (SOC) benefit more from ESG in terms of financial performance compared to state-owned counterparts.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is limited by its reliance on secondary data from Refinitiv, which may not capture all nuances of ESG practices and financial performance. Additionally, the analysis is confined to the O&G industry, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings to other sectors. Future research could expand the scope to include other industries and incorporate primary data to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the ESG–financial performance relationship.Practical implicationsThe study’s findings suggest that O&G companies can potentially reduce their borrowing costs by improving their ESG ratings. This insight is valuable for corporate managers and investors, as it highlights the financial benefits of sustainable practices. Additionally, policymakers could use these findings to encourage better ESG disclosure and practices within the industry, ultimately promoting a more sustainable energy sector.Social implicationsBy demonstrating the financial advantages of ESG disclosure, this study underscores the broader social benefits of sustainable business practices. Improved ESG ratings not only contribute to environmental and social well-being but also enhance a company’s financial performance. This dual benefit can motivate more companies to adopt sustainable practices, leading to positive societal impacts such as reduced environmental damage and improved community relations.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between ESG ratings and corporate bond credit spreads specifically within the O&G industry. By highlighting the differential impact of ESG disclosure on state-owned versus non-SOC, the research offers unique insights that can inform corporate strategies in the context of sustainability and financial performance.

ESG performance and the cost of debt: exploring the role of internal audit

ABSTRACT This study investigates the effect of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance on capital-raising costs in the debt market. The study also examines the role of internal audit organizations in this relationship. The results of the current study show that firms with high ESG performance have lower cost of debt. More importantly, when ESG is classified into sub-factors (E, S, and G), all three are negatively associated with the cost of debt. Next, the current study documents that the presence of an audit committee, the increase in the number of internal audit members, and the higher independence of the internal audit organization incrementally weaken the negative relationship between ESG and the cost of debt. The results remain robust across various additional tests and when endogeneity concerns are mitigated. Overall, these findings suggest the possibility that, as a primary risk assessment function, an independent and large internal audit organization exposes and highlights ESG risks to external credit rating agencies. The findings of this study offer valuable practical insights into how internal audit organizations can effectively assess and contribute to the evaluation of ESG performance.

Measuring Going Concern Viability and the Effect of Interim Financing Under the Indian Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016

Abstract India’s insolvency framework mandates preserving viable firms as going concerns, but a critical gap remains – the lack of a standardised approach to assessing a firm’s viability during bankruptcy proceedings, resulting in inefficient allocation of interim finance to insolvent firms. This study sheds light on this issue by examining the performance of 21 firms during insolvency. We find that the absence of a clear viability assessment has led to suboptimal outcomes: viable firms being underfinanced and unviable firms being overfinanced. This has led to value deterioration, as many viable firms were ultimately pushed into liquidation due to insufficient interim financing. As a remedy, the authors propose a periodic viability assessment framework, for collecting and publishing information about the insolvent firm during insolvency proceedings. This would improve transparency and predictability for viable firms seeking interim finance, empowering lenders and investors to make better-informed decisions. By supporting viable distressed firms, this framework could foster a thriving market for distressed debt in India, rescuing valuable companies from the bankruptcy abyss.

Russia–Ukraine war and the cost of borrowing in the West African Economic and Monetary Union sovereign debt market

AbstractThis paper contributes to the emerging literature on the economic impacts of the Russia–Ukraine war by estimating the effects of that war on FCFA‐denominated sovereign bond yields and spreads for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries. Using ordinary least squares regressions on monthly panel data from January 2020 to December 2022, we found three key results. First, the Russia–Ukraine war significantly increased long‐term government bonds but had no impact on short‐term sovereign bond yields. Second, the Russia–Ukraine war raised sovereign bond spreads in WAEMU countries. These results suggest that WAEMU countries may consider reducing sovereign long‐term bond issuances and exploiting alternative financing sources, such as concessional financing, until the war and its corollary of global economic and financial imbalances are resolved. Finally, we found that the Central Bank of West African States's policy rate hikes increase governments' borrowing costs. Given this impact, we recommend complementing monetary policy with nonmonetary and fiscal policy measures to ease inflationary pressure from the Russia–Ukraine war. This approach may help mitigate the upward pressure driven by monetary policy tightening on sovereign borrowing costs in the WAEMU government securities markets.

Financial Flexibility Prevalence Revisited with Evidence from South Africa

Financial flexibility occurs when companies borrow less than expected and is widely practiced. A commonly used model to establish the presence of financial flexibility is based on the determinants of the leverage model, which was developed some time ago and is composed of various factors that determine a company’s leverage use. Governmental borrowing and financial sector development in the meantime were shown to be key drivers of corporate borrowing. We add these two factors to the original model to establish how the prevalence of financial flexibility is affected by these inclusions into the model. South Africa is used as a locality for the study because of its relatively recent financial sector development and increased governmental borrowing. The results of the study show that financial flexibility is more prevalent when these factors are considered in a South African context. Previous studies have paradoxically shown a lower financial flexibility prevalence in South Africa when compared to a developed market such as the UK, which is contradictory to developing market debt conservatism. In this study, we show that when accounting for financial sector development and governmental borrowing, financial flexibility is widely prevalent in a South African context, at similar levels to that of a developed economy. The primary implication of the study’s findings is that financial flexibility may have been underreported in developed markets in prior studies.

The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the International Sovereign Debt Market: The Role of Trade Channel

The paper quantifies the impact of the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war on sovereign bond yields for 58 countries. Our findings based on event study methodology and multivariate cross-sectional regression analysis highlight the salient role of trade channel in shaping the markets’ reaction to the hostilities. The uptick in yields was higher in countries with a greater share of agricultural raw materials imports from Ukraine. No other persistent cross-geography differences in market reactions were found. The strength of the reaction was contingent on the individual countries’ macroeconomic conditions. The post-event cumulative abnormal returns exhibited a positive associative link with the baseline inflation in the studied countries pointing to the inflationary pressure portended by the outbreak of war. No statistically significant links between the ex ante situation on the labor market and the subsequent bond market reaction were observed. At the outset of hostilities, the dynamics of yields were driven by the perceived likelihood of escalation, while at later stages, the trade channel appears to have shaped the market response. The paper provides insights into the factors shaping the spillover effects of the war on fixed-income markets and quantifies the speed of market adjustment in response to an external shock.

How does Russia's economy affect the region? Transmission channels and policy options

This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia's output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.

Climate-Related Regulations and Financial Markets: A Meta-Analytic Literature Review

Countries are confronting climate change using climate-related regulations that require firms and investors to disclose their green strategies and activities. Using the Meta-Analysis Structural Equation Modeling (MASEM) technique, this study evaluates the relationship between climate-related regulations and financial markets. The meta-regression analysis is conducted based on the outcomes of 52 empirical studies screened from 143 relevant articles. The results show the predictive power of the climate-related disclosure (CRD) laws and environmental regulations (ERs) on financial performance across all studies. ERs create mixed impacts on the equity market and support the debt market. Firm value is affected by ERs either negatively or positively. Methodologies and risk-related factors (market, industry, and firm risks) are important in explaining the relationships between ER/CRD and financial performance. The more developed the market, the less the impact of ERs and CRD on the equity market. Considering industry risk is recommended because different industries are exposed to changes in policies differently. The ER/CRD–firm value relationship is affected by all market, industry, and firm risks. The downside effect of mandatory CRD on the equity market suggests that policy makers, firms, and investors should be cautious in passing a new CRD regulation for transformation towards a sustainable economy.

Low- and middle-income countries’ external debt cycle and global economic prospect

The rapid growth of peripheral countries has brought significant changes to the global economic and financial system, making it crucial to examine the relationship between their cyclical debt fluctuations and the world economy. Using the Bayesian dynamic factor model, this paper documents the presence of a set of common factors, known as global debt cycles, in the external debt accumulation of the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The interesting finding is that this debt cycles differ from well-known factors for global financial cycles in capital flows, such as U.S. monetary policy and global risk aversion. Even after controlling the factors for global financial cycles, our results reveal a significantly negative predictive effect of estimated debt cycles on global economic growth. Moreover, we demonstrate that this negative effect is primarily dominated by LMICs occupying prominent positions in international debt market networks, especially during the post-2008 financial crisis period. These findings emphasize the increasing importance of peripheral countries in the world system, which has been largely ignored in existing literature.

Product market competition, debt rollover risk and financial default risk: evidence from Indian corporates

PurposeThe study investigates the impact of the interaction effect of product market competition and rollover risk on the default risk of the firms.Design/methodology/approachThe study used the sample of unbalanced panel data from Indian corporates without any survivability bias over the period from 2009 to 2020 consisting of 30,396 firm-year observations of 6,718 firms spread across 143 industry groups. The panel data regression tests the interaction effect in the context of the asset substitution problem, predation threat theory, competitive shock, and competitive risk.FindingsThe empirical results highlighted the dominance of the predatory effect of competition over the disciplinary advantage of short-term debts. The competitive shock to the industry results in a higher credit spread for refinancing short-term debt and significantly increases rollover risk for firms. Smaller firms have higher default risk from rollover losses than larger firms in the face of competition due to asset-substitution problems and strong rivalry. For firms with weaker fundamentals, the interaction effect of rollover risk and competition exacerbates the flight-to-quality problem, resulting in a systemic event.Practical implicationsThe investors can benefit by factoring ex-ante the interdependence of competition, debt market illiquidity, and default premia while calculating the credit risk. The shareholders of competitive firms can reduce the moral hazard of refinancing the rollover losses and defaulting at a higher fundamental default threshold, by reducing sub-optimal utilization of funds by managers and agency costs.Originality/valueAs per the best of author knowledge, the present study is the first to study the moderating effect of product market competition in exacerbating default risk through the rollover channel.

Accounting Standardization and Separation in the Municipal Debt Market: Evidence from GASB 34

ABSTRACT Governmental Accounting Standards Board Statement No. 34 (GASB 34, 1999) standardized financial reporting and disclosure requirements for U.S. state and local governments. We interpret debt issuing patterns surrounding GASB 34 implementation as evidence of strategic behavior by governments in anticipation of GASB 34 consequences. Specifically, governments that expected more favorable post-GASB 34 evaluations by municipal bond investors delayed new uninsured debt issues until after, whereas governments that expected less favorable evaluations accelerated debt issues to before, GASB 34 information became publicly available. Governments expecting favorable consequences were more likely than governments expecting adverse consequences to substitute away from insured debt and toward uninsured debt, and to choose new debt financing rather than alternative financing sources following GASB 34. These findings are consistent with the notion that expectations about GASB 34 consequences were realized, and that standardization created through GASB 34 facilitated separation in the municipal debt market. Data Availability: Data are from publicly available sources identified in the manuscript. JEL Classifications: G18; H74; M48.

Sovereign Green Bonds: A Catalyst for Sustainable Debt Market Development?

Sovereign Green Bonds: A Catalyst for Sustainable Debt Market Development?

Rewarding performance through sustainability‐linked bonds

AbstractGreen bonds and the broad category of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) debt are market initiatives designed to tie environmental goals to the funding mechanism of the firm. Although there is an evolving certification process for green and social bonds, it does not currently include monetary consequences for a deviation from the proposed green uses of the funding. This article provides an overview of the green/social bond market to highlight these shortcomings. After a review of the green bond literature, we note the shortcomings of the existing debt market and illustrate the benefits of sustainability‐linked bonds (SLB), which reward incremental improvements in relevant performance indicators.

Borrowing from China and Sovereign Credit Risk

China's lending to developing nations has surged since the mid-2000s, making it these nations' largest official creditor. Contracts frequently feature unique terms, indicating China's substantial privileges as a lender. However, other lenders are also involved. We examine how these lending relationships with China affect access to credit from international bondholders. Combining data on external marketable debt and prices with Chinese lending data, we find that Chinese funding events decrease marketable debt issuance and sovereign yields. Conversely, debt restructuring with China leads to higher spreads. These findings underscore the impact of China's lending on international credit access.

Inter-dependencies among BRICS countries: the perspective of sovereign bonds

ABSTRACT Over the past two decades, the economic influence of the BRICS countries has continued to grow. While the BRICS group is considered a political alliance and the members face large heterogeneity in development stages, the internal interactions among the BRICS members are ambiguous. Focusing on the sovereign bond markets, this paper conducts empirical research using the SUR model to investigate the inter-dependencies among the BRICS countries. The estimation results reveal the existence of inter-dependencies among the debt market in BRICS countries. Impulse response plots show that Russia-South Africa and India-China are the two country pairs to have mutual influence, with the Russia-South Africa pair being consistent on different time intervals. Among the BRICS countries, China is the only country interacting with other members at different time intervals. These findings suggest the growing internal development of the BRICS group.

Brand capital and debt choice

This paper investigates the effect of brand capital on firms' choices of debt structure. Using a sample of publicly listed U.S. firms between 2001 and 2019, we find that firms with higher levels of brand capital rely less on bank debt financing. This finding is robust to the use of alternative regression models and alternate measures of brand capital and bank debt financing. Employing an industry-level positive shock to brand capital as a quasi-natural experiment, we demonstrate that such a shock negatively affects firms' reliance on bank debt. Our cross-sectional analyses reveal that the effect of brand capital on bank debt is more pronounced for firms with high information asymmetry, weak corporate governance mechanisms, and poor financial conditions. We also find that brand capital-intensive firms raise funds from the public debt market and issue more (or less) unsecured (or secured) debt. Taken together, we show that brand capital has an important bearing on corporate financing decisions.

Statistical Study of the Russian Financial System under Sanctions

Purpose of the study. The imposition of sanctions on the financial sector and suspending relations with international financial institutions in 2022 has significantly affected the external conditions for the development of the domestic financial sector, caused an increase in geopolitical tensions and instability in the Russian currency market. It is necessary to study and understand the processes currently taking place in the financial market. The article is devoted to the statistical assessment of the impact of sanctions on the Russian financial system in 2022 and 2023. The purpose of research paper is to identify the situation on the currency, money and credit, debt market, as well as in the budgetary sphere, to assess the relationship between the dynamics of key financial indexes in the sanctions crisis. Materials and methods. The sources of information for the calculations were official data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, the provider of data on financial markets Cbonds and PJSC “Moscow Exchange”. The article used statistical methods of analysis: variations, dynamics, hypothesis testing. Determination of anomalous levels of the time series was carried out using the Irwin method. Differences in average federal budget indexes were assessed using the Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test. The dependence of the dynamics of the main financial indexes was assessed on the basis of time series correlation. Results. The study allowed us to conclude that 2022 was a critical year for the Russian financial system. All its sectors were affected by sanctions restrictions. The weakening of the national currency was revealed in the currency market, and it was found that the dollar exchange rate in 2023 was abnormally high for the period from 2000 to 2023. The budget sector hasdemonstrated stability. The results of the study showed that the sanctions pressure did not affect the revenue part of the federal budget. However, the average monthly expenditure of the federal budget increased statistically significantly by almost three times in 2022. The monetary market reacted with an excessive supply of money. The increase in the money supply has reached its highest value in the last 10 years. The money supply growth was accompanied by changes in its structure. The banking sector showed the development of the credit growth trend. The debt market reacted with a rapid growth of corporate bonds volume, the highest for the last 10 years. And the market of federal loan bonds was characterized by a rapid reduction in the volume of federal loan bonds owned by non-residents and a decrease in the share of non-residents. The interrelation between the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate and the volume of corporate lending associated with the conversion of loans in US dollars and euros into yuan was revealed. Direct interrelation was observed in the dynamics of money supply and the volume of corporate bonds and federal loan bonds market. Conclusion. The financial system is adapting to new circumstances. The transformation of methods and tools of financial regulation accompany this process. This process requires studying and understanding changes in the composition, dynamics, and interconnection of the structural elements of the financial system, as well as finding ways for its development.

Does Capital Structure Affect Profitability of Listed Ghanaian Firms?

ABSTRACT: Capital structure is one of the crucial decisions managers must make that can affect a firm's short-term and long-term value maximization prospects. Though extant studies have shown capital structure significantly affects profits, researchers have struggled to find an optimal mix of capital structure ideal for value maximization due to the influence of macro and micro factors. There is therefore the need for this to be properly studied contextually. Building on the Pecking Order Theory, this study examines the capital structure effects on profitability from a short-term, long-term, and total debt financing perspective on listed Ghanaian firms between 2003 and 2013. An unbalanced panel data of 23 listed manufacturing and service firms that are listed on the Ghanaian Stock Exchange are subjected to robust maximum likelihood heteroskedastic linear estimation models. Three main regressions that are run explain the short-term debt, long-term debt and total debt effect on firm profitability. The results show that short-term debt exhibits a positive effect on return on equity (ROE), whilst the relationship reverses for long-term debt, indicating that short-term financing was beneficial to firms rather than long-term financing. Also, total debt exhibited a negative and non-significant effect on return on equity. The author also found that firm liquidity exhibited a more pronounced positive effect on profitability for firms with short-term debt than long-term debt. Financial risk negatively affected the returns of only firms with short-term debt. Market share had a pronounced positive effect on ROE across firms whilst firm age exhibited a less pronounced positive effect on firm profits. Firm size and growth had increasing profit effects but was not significant in the dataset. Financial risk also negatively affected profits, but this was only significant in firms with short-term debt structures. This study finds that managers need to adopt more short-term debt financing rather than long-term financing as the former leads to more profits. There is a need for policymakers to develop long-term debt financing structures to compete in the Ghanaian debt market. It is also recommended that managers exercise due care when supplementing equity capital with debt.

The leading protective tool in the Russian debt market in 2023

The leading protective tool in the Russian debt market in 2023

Differential taxation in agricultural credit market

AbstractThis study examines whether the market competitiveness of farm loan suppliers is affected by the US tax policy for the farm credit system (FCS) and its potential spillover on the farmers' cost of borrowing. We exploit the variation in the corporate income tax rate to estimate its relationship with the farm debt share of the FCS and the potential spillover effect on the estimated cost of borrowing for agricultural loans. Results suggest that a 10% rise in the state (federal) tax rate is associated with an increase in FCS's total farm debt market share by 1.76% (3.76%). A 10% rise in the FCS total farm debt market share tends to increase the cost of borrowing on agricultural loans by 0.06%. Overall, the findings imply that favorable tax treatment could increase FCS' competitiveness in the agricultural lending market. Also, an increase in the interest rate on farm debt is correlated with the increasing market share of FCS in the agricultural credit market. [EconLit Citations: Q14, N22, H2, H7, G21].