Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 가계의 주관적 전망이 부채행동에 미치는 영향을 파악하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 2012년도, 2013년도 한국복지패널조사 자료를 사용하여 실증 분석하였다. 실증분석 자료는 2012년과 2013년에 걸쳐 모두 응답한 총 6,001가계 자료이다. 실증분석 결과, 약간 나빠질 것으로 전망하는 우리나라 경제상황을 제외하고는 가계수입, 부동산자산가치, 금융자산가치의 미시 차원과 물가수준의 거시 차원은 비슷할 것으로 전망하였다. 금융자산가치 전망에 따라 부채변화 규모에 차이가 있었다. 가계수입, 부동산자산가치 및 금융자산가치 전망은 부채변화 특성과 관련이 있었다. 부동산자산가치 전망은 부채변화 규모에 정적인 영향을 미쳤고, 금융자산가치 전망은 부채변화 규모에 부적인 영향을 미쳤다. 부동산자산가치가 증가할 것으로 전망할수록 부채감소 가계에 속할 확률이 낮았고, 우리나라 경제상황이 나아질 것으로 전망할수록 부채증가 가계에 속할 확률이 높았다. 부채감소 가계는 부동산자산가치 전망이 부채변화 규모에 부적인 영향을 미쳤고, 부채증가 가계는 금융자산가치 전망이 부채변화 규모에 부적인 영향을 미쳤다. English Abstract: The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of subjective prospect on the debt behavior of households. The data for this study was from the 2012 year and the 2013 year of the Korea Welfare Panel Survey (KOWEPS), consisting of 6.001 households who responded in both the years. Descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way ANOVA, χ2-test, multiple regression, multinominal logit analyses and Chow-test were performed. In the regression analyses, the dependent variables for debt behavior were two: the amount of debt change and the characteristic of debt change. For the analyses, Stata 12.0 version was used. The results are as follows: Except economic condition, household earnings, real estate value, financial asset value and price level after one year tended to be expected as similar. There was a difference in the characteristics of debt change by the prospects on household income, real estate value and financial asset value. There were correlations between the prospect on household earnings and the characteristic of debt change, the prospect on real estate value and the characteristic of debt change, and the prospect on financial asset value and the characteristic of debt change. The more households expected real asset value to increase, the households were more likely to belong to the household with debt reduction. The better households expected economic condition to be, the households were more likely to belong to the household with debt increase. As for the households with debt reduction, the prospect on real estate value affected the amount of debt change negatively, and as for the households with debt increase, the prospect on financial asset value affected the amount of debt change negatively.