Ice Breakup Dates Research Articles

The wisdom of crowds: Predicting a weather and climate-related event

AbstractEnvironmental uncertainty is at the core of much of human activity, ranging from daily decisions by individuals to long-term policy planning by governments. Yet, there is little quantitative evidence on the ability of non-expert individuals or populations to forecast climate-related events. Here we report on data from a 90-year old prediction game on a climate related event in Alaska: the Nenana Ice Classic (NIC). Participants in this contest guess to the nearest minute when the ice covering the Tanana River will break, signaling the start of spring. Previous research indicates a strong correlation between the ice breakup dates and regional weather conditions. We study betting decisions between 1955 and 2009. We find the betting distribution closely predicts the outcome of the contest. We also find a significant correlation between regional temperatures as well as past ice breakups and betting behavior, suggesting that participants incorporate both climate and historical information into their decision-making.

Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca. 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004

We investigate the temporal patterns in inter-annual variability in ice breakup dates for Lakes Mendota and Monona, Wisconsin, between 1905 and 2004. We analyze the contributions of long-term trends attributed to climate change, local weather, indices of sunspots, and large-scale climatic drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niňo Southern Ocean Index (ENSO) on time series of lake-ice breakup. The relative importance of the aforementioned explanatory variables was assessed using linear regression and variation partitioning models accounting for cyclic temporal dynamics as represented by Moran Eigenvector Maps (MEM). Model results explain an average of 58 % of the variation in ice breakup dates. A combination of the long-term linear trends, rain and snowfall in the month prior to breakup, air temperature in the winter prior to breakup, cyclic dynamics associated with sunspot numbers, ENSO, and for Lake Mendota, NAO, all significantly influence the timing of ice breakup. Significant cycle lengths were 3.5, 9, 11, and 50 years. Despite their proximity, Lakes Mendota and Monona exhibit differences in how and which explanatory variables were incorporated into the models. Our results indicate that lake ice dynamics are complex in both lakes and multiple interacting processes explain the residuals around the linear warming trends that characterize lake ice records.

Long-Term Changes in Hydrological Regime of the Lakes Usma, Burtnieks and Rāzna

Changes in the hydrological regime of the lakes of Latvia have been caused by several natural and human factors. This publication summarises the results of research on the long-term and seasonal changes in the water level, and thermal and ice regimes of the three biggest lakes of Latvia (Usma, Burtnieks, and Râzna) and their regional features in the period from 1926 to 2002. The levels of the lakes Usma and Râzna have been controlled, but it can be considered that changes of the water level in Lake Burtnieks have been due to the impact of natural factors during the period from 1947 to 2002. Global climate warming has caused considerable changes in the hydrological regime of the lakes during the last decades, as the water level and temperature have increased and the number of days with ice cover and the thickness of ice have decreased. A positive trend in the freezing data and statistically reliable negative trend for the ice break-up date were observed for all the lakes. Lake Usma is located in the western part of Latvia, therefore, its hydrological regime, in particular, the thermal and ice regime, differs from those of lakes Burtnieks and Râzna which are located in the northern and eastern part of Latvia, respectively.

Changes in ice-season characteristics of a European Arctic lake from 1964 to 2008

The long-term ice record (from 1964 to 2008) of an Arctic lake in northern Europe (Lake Kilpisjarvi) reveals the response of lake ice to climate change at local and regional scales. Average freeze-up and ice breakup occurred on 9 November and 19 June, respectively. The freeze-up has been significantly delayed at a rate of 2.3 d per decade from 1964 onward (P < 0.05). No significant change has taken place in ice breakup. Annual average ice thickness has become smaller since the mid-1980s (P < 0.05). Air temperature during the early ice season significantly affected the ice thickness. The freeze-up date exhibits the highest correlation with the 2-month average daily minimum air temperature centered at the end of October, while the ice breakup date exhibits the highest correlation with the 2-month average daily maximal air temperature centered in mid May. A 1°C increase in the surface air temperature corresponds to a freeze-up later by 3.4 days and an ice breakup earlier by 3.6 days. Snow cover is a critical factor in lake-ice climatology. For cumulative November to March precipitation of less than 0.13 m, the insulating effect of the snow dominated, while higher rates of precipitation favored thicker ice due to the formation of snow ice. Variations in ice records of Lake Kilpisjarvi can serve as an indicator of climate variations across the northern Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not significantly affect the ice season there, although both the local air temperatures and winter precipitation contain a strong NAO signal.

Western Canadian Arctic Ringed Seal Organic Contaminant Trends in Relation to Sea Ice Break-Up

The association between changing sea ice conditions and contaminant exposure to Arctic animals interests Inuvialuit harvesters, communities, and researchers. We examined organochlorine contaminant (OC) concentrations in the blubber of 90 male adult ringed seals (Phoca hispida) sampled from the subsistence harvest in Ulukhaktok (formerly Holman), NT, Canada, just prior to break-up of the sea ice (1993-2008). OC blubber concentrations were assessed with respect to year and sea ice break-up date. HCB and age- and blubber-adjusted concentrations of p,p'-DDT and ΣCHB (chlorobornane) significantly decreased over the study period. With respect to the timing of the spring break-up, highly lipophlic OCs, such as p,p'-DDE and PCB 153, were higher during years of early ice clearing (at least 12 days earlier than the mean annual break-up date), whereas no trends were observed for α, β, and γ isomers of HCH, trans- and cis-chlordane, oxychlordane, or ΣCHB. The higher contaminant concentrations found in earlier break-up years is likely due to earlier and/or increased foraging opportunities. This situation also has potential for enhancing bioaccumulation and biomagnification of contaminants over the long-term if projected changes continue to result in lighter and earlier ice conditions.

Lake Ice phenology of small lakes: Impacts of climate variability in the Great Lakes region

Formation of lake ice is common in lakes located in mid and high latitudes. Lake ice plays a vital role in heat storage, controlling lake water temperature, survival of aquatic ecosystems, and maintaining the bio diversity of lakes. Significant warming in air temperature during the cold season (October–May) may lead to reduced ice cover of lakes and eventually disturb the lake's seasonal dynamics. We examined the role of climate variability on lake ice phenology for small inland lakes in the Great Lakes region. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with a physically based lake algorithm was implemented to simulate long term (i.e. 1916–2007) changes in lake ice phenology, as described by the date of ice break-up, date of ice freeze-up, and number of ice-free days. Model performance was evaluated against observed lake ice phenology. A statistically significant increase (0.08–0.21 °C) in air temperature resulted in a significant change (0.2–2.0 days/decade) in lake ice freeze-up and break-up dates. While lake ice freeze-up was strongly associated (correlation > 0.60) with air temperature of the early (October–December) cold season, lake ice break-up was highly associated (correlation = − 0.80) with air temperature during the late (March–May) cold season. The number of ice-free days was affected by the temperature changes during the entire cold season. Lakes located in the southern part of the study domain experienced stronger trends in ice phenology than those located in the northern part. Inter-decadal to decadal scale variability in the number of ice-free days not associated with long-term trends in air temperature were largely driven by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Large-Scale Climate Controls of Interior Alaska River Ice Breakup

AbstractFrozen rivers in the Arctic serve as critical highways because of the lack of roads; therefore, it is important to understand the key mechanisms that control the timing of river ice breakup. The relationships between springtime Interior Alaska river ice breakup date and the large-scale climate are investigated for the Yukon, Tanana, Kuskokwim, and Chena Rivers for the 1949–2008 period. The most important climate factor that determines breakup is April–May surface air temperatures (SATs). Breakup tends to occur earlier when Alaska April–May SATs and river flow are above normal. Spring SATs are influenced by storms approaching the state from the Gulf of Alaska, which are part of large-scale climate anomalies that compare favorably with ENSO. During the warm phase of ENSO fewer storms travel into the Gulf of Alaska during the spring, resulting in a decrease of cloud cover over Alaska, which increases surface solar insolation. This results in warmer-than-average springtime SATs and an earlier breakup date. The opposite holds true for the cold phase of ENSO. Increased wintertime precipitation over Alaska has a secondary impact on earlier breakup by increasing spring river discharge. Improved springtime Alaska temperature predictions would enhance the ability to forecast the timing of river ice breakup.

Ice-cover effects on competitive interactions between two fish species

1. Variations in the strength of ecological interactions between seasons have received little attention, despite an increased focus on climate alterations on ecosystems. Particularly, the winter situation is often neglected when studying competitive interactions. In northern temperate freshwaters, winter implies low temperatures and reduced food availability, but also strong reduction in ambient light because of ice and snow cover. Here, we study how brown trout [Salmo trutta (L.)] respond to variations in ice-cover duration and competition with Arctic charr [Salvelinus alpinus (L.)], by linking laboratory-derived physiological performance and field data on variation in abundance among and within natural brown trout populations. 2. Both Arctic charr and brown trout reduced resting metabolic rate under simulated ice-cover (darkness) in the laboratory, compared to no ice (6-h daylight). However, in contrast to brown trout, Arctic charr was able to obtain positive growth rate in darkness and had higher food intake in tank experiments than brown trout. Arctic charr also performed better (lower energy loss) under simulated ice-cover in a semi-natural environment with natural food supply. 3. When comparing brown trout biomass across 190 Norwegian lakes along a climate gradient, longer ice-covered duration decreased the biomass only in lakes where brown trout lived together with Arctic charr. We were not able to detect any effect of ice-cover on brown trout biomass in lakes where brown trout was the only fish species. 4. Similarly, a 25-year time series from a lake with both brown trout and Arctic charr showed that brown trout population growth rate depended on the interaction between ice breakup date and Arctic charr abundance. High charr abundance was correlated with low trout population growth rate only in combination with long winters. 5. In conclusion, the two species differed in performance under ice, and the observed outcome of competition in natural populations was strongly dependent on duration of the ice-covered period. Our study shows that changes in ice phenology may alter species interactions in Northern aquatic systems. Increased knowledge of how adaptations to winter conditions differ among coexisting species is therefore vital for our understanding of ecological impacts of climate change.

Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay?

Climate change driven advances in the date of sea ice breakup will increasingly lead to a loss of spring polar bear foraging opportunities on ringed seal pups creating a phenological trophic ‘mismatch’. However, the same shift will lead to a new ‘match’ between polar bears and ground nesting birds. This new match will be especially prevalent along the Cape Churchill Peninsula of western Hudson Bay where both polar bears and nesting snow geese are abundant. Easily foraged goose eggs will provide at least some of the earlier arriving polar bears with compensation for the energy deficit accrued through lost seal hunting opportunities. We examine the potential impact of changes in the extent and pattern of polar bear egg predation on snow goose abundance using projection models that account not only for increases in the temporal overlap of the two species but also for autocorrelation and stochasticity in the processes underlying polar bear onshore arrival and snow goose incubation. Egg predation will reduce reproductive output of the nesting lesser snow geese and, under all but trivial rates, will lead to a reduction in the size of their nesting population on the Cape Churchill Peninsula. Stochasticity associated with the asymmetrical advances in polar bear onshore arrival and the snow goose incubation period will lead to periodic mismatches in their overlap. These, in turn, will allow snow goose abundance to increase periodically. Climate driven changes in trophic matches and mismatches may reduce snow goose numbers but will not eliminate this over‐abundant species that poses a threat to Arctic landscapes.

Moderation in Groups: Evidence from Betting on Ice Break-ups in Alaska

We use a large sample of guessed ice break-up dates for the Tanana River in Alaska to study differences between outcomes of decisions made by individuals versus groups. We estimate the distribution of guesses conditional on whether they were made by individual bettors or betting pools. We document two major distinctions between the two sets of guesses: (1) the distribution of guesses made by groups of bettors appears to conform more to the distribution of historical break-up dates than the distribution of guesses made by individual bettors, and (2) the distribution for groups has less mass in its tails and displays lower variability than the distribution for individuals. We argue that these two pieces of evidence are consistent with the hypothesis that group decisions are more moderate, either because groups have to reach a compromise when their members disagree or because individuals with extreme opinions are less likely to be part of a group.

Do warmer winters change variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions in Sweden?

In this study, the effect of a warmer winter climate on variability patterns of physical and chemical lake conditions was examined by using monthly air temperature data from 72 meteorological Swedish sites, ice breakup data from 77 Swedish lakes and monthly data of 17 water chemical variables from 11 nutrient-poor Swedish reference lakes during 1988–2005. The results showed significantly increasing variations of lake ice breakup dates and nitrate concentrations over Sweden along with increasing winter air temperatures. Variability patterns of other water chemical variables were not affected by warmer winters. Nitrate concentrations increased their variability in spring and early summer not only between lakes but also within lakes, which was attributed to a climate-induced increase in spring nitrate concentrations in particular in southern Sweden, while summer nitrate concentrations remained rather constant and low all over Sweden (median 10 μg l−1). Since nitrate concentrations play an important role for primary production, highly varying concentrations will be a challenge for biota to adapt.

The Moderating Effect of Group Decision Making

We use a large sample of guessed ice break-up dates for the Tanana River in Alaska to study differences between outcomes of decisions made by individuals versus groups. We estimate the distribution of guesses conditional on whether they were made by individual bettors or betting pools. We document two major distinctions between the two sets of guesses: (1) the distribution of guesses made by groups of bettors appears to conform more to the distribution of historical break-up dates than the distribution of guesses made by individual bettors, and (2) the distribution for groups has less mass in its tails and displays lower variability than the distribution for individuals. We argue that these two pieces of evidence are consistent with the hypothesis that group decisions are more moderate, either because groups have to reach a compromise when their members disagree or because individuals with extreme opinions are less likely to be part of a group.

Long-term variability and methods of forecasting dates of ice break-up in the mouth area of the Ob and Yenisei rivers

Long-term characteristics of the onset dates of spring ice phases at hydrological stations in the mouth areas of the Ob and Yenisei rivers for 1936–2006 are obtained. The correlations are analyzed between these dates and the frequency of different synoptic processes over the Atlantic and Eurasia in the fall-winter months, the dates when the accumulated temperatures at meteorological stations in the middle parts of the river basins reach 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40°C, and the dates of the start of ice drift at the upstream sections of the Yenisei. Prognostic relations are suggested and test forecasts of the onset dates of ice phases are verified. The percentage of correct forecasts was 67–86%, which makes it possible to recommend the relations for using in prognostic practice. The forecast lead time ranges from 3 to 110 days.

Relationships between ice breakup dates of lakes and local air temperature on the Eurasian continent

Ice breakup dates on lakes are related to the local air temperature, and are useful for understanding the local climate. However, little study has been done on lakes on the Eurasian continent. Therefore, an ice breakup date estimation method, using water temperature trend and threshold surface temperature and aided by satellite remote sensing, was developed in our previous study in order to obtain the ice breakup dates for these lakes. The spatial distribution of ice breakup dates was also determined from the ice breakup dates on 18 Eurasian lakes from 2001 to 2003. The current paper reports the time series of the ice breakup dates, and establishes the relationships between ice breakup date and local air temperature. First, we estimated the ice breakup dates for Lake Khanka, which lies in the east of the Eurasian continent, over a period between 1984 and 2003, using advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data. The results show that the ice breakup dates vary across a span of 10 to 20 days over a cycle of 5 to 10 years. According to the annual analysis, the ice breakup period does not become any earlier during the 20 years of the estimates. The observed data for Lake Baikal show a similar picture, although low correlation coefficients suggest that there is no strong relationship between the ice breakup dates for these lakes. Second, for each year, the ice breakup dates on Lake Khanka were plotted against the air temperature at Vladivostok, located about 160 km south of Lake Khanka. This analysis helps us to understand that a day change in ice breakup date represents a 0.3°C change in the mean air temperature in the month prior to the ice breakup date. A similar relationship was also derived between the ice breakup dates over 3 years on 17 Eurasian lakes and the air temperature derived from an observatory near to each lake.

Effects of Earlier Sea Ice Breakup on Survival and Population Size of Polar Bears in Western Hudson Bay

ABSTRACT Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population‐level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber capture‐recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice‐dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020‐1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794‐1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime‐adult polar bears (5–19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91‐0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88‐0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent‐adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human‐polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as projected.

Estimating ice breakup dates on Eurasian lakes using water temperature trends and threshold surface temperatures derived from MODIS data

Ice breakup dates on lakes have a confirmed relationship with the local climates and are useful as a quantitative indicator of climate change, especially in the middle‐high latitudes. Many lakes on the Eurasian continent freeze over in winter, but data on their ice breakup dates are incomplete. In this study, we attempt to infer ice breakup dates for 18 lakes on the Eurasian continent using the proposed method based on long‐term surface temperature (water temperature trend) and threshold surface temperature. The threshold surface temperature was estimated using reflectance data from the near infrared band together with surface temperature data derived from MODIS. After obtaining the estimated ice breakup dates, we compared them with observed results in order to evaluate our proposed method for ice breakup date estimation. According to this comparison, the estimation error of the ice breakup dates was less than three days. In the last stage of this study, we estimated the ice breakup dates at the centres of 18 Eurasian lakes from 2001 to 2003. The mean ice breakup dates on these lakes in 2002 were two weeks earlier than in 2003 and one week earlier than in 2001.

Seasonal climate inferences from high-resolution modern diatom data along a climate gradient: a case study

This study represents a step towards developing seasonal climate inferences by using high-resolution modern data sets. The importance of seasonal climate changes is highlighted by the instrumental record of a meteorological station close to our study site (lac du Sommet in the Laurentian Mountains, Quebec, Canada): Between 1966 and 2001, May temperatures increased significantly by 3.1°C (r = 0.41, n = 35, p 0.05). Comparison of this instrumental record with fossil diatom assemblages in a sediment core from lac du Sommet showed that axis one of a principal component analysis (PCA) of the fossil diatoms was best correlated with wind velocity in June (r = 0.62, n = 19, p < 0.005) and that past diatom production was significantly enhanced in periods with colder July temperatures (r = −0.77, n = 19, p < 0.0005) and higher wind velocity in June (r = 77, n = 19, p < 0.0005). The strong impact of the spring and summer conditions on overall diatom composition and productivity suggests that seasonal lake responses to climate are more important than annual mean temperatures. However, the seasonal dynamics of diatom communities are not well understood, and seasonality is rarely inferred effectively from lake sediment studies. Our research presents a pilot study to answer a twofold question: Is it possible to identify diatom communities which are typical for warmer or colder seasonal climate using sediment traps, and if it is, can this knowledge be used to infer seasonal climate conditions from fossil diatom assemblages? To address these questions, the seasonal dynamics of diatom communities and water chemistry were studied using sediment traps and water samples at biweekly intervals in four lakes distributed along an altitudinal gradient in the Laurentian Mountains from May through October 2002. Date of ice break-up was significantly related to the diatom assemblages taken in spring and uncorrelated to other significant environmental variables. Summer water temperature, circulation of the water column and pH explained a significant part of the biological variance in summer, and total nitrogen (TN) explained most of the biological variance in autumn. To infer these variables, weighted averaging partial least squares models were applied to the seasonal data sets. Inferred ice break-up dates were significantly correlated with number of days below 0°C in April (r = 0.52, n = 19, p < 0.025), inferred circulation of the water column was significantly related to measured wind velocity in June (r = 0.64, n = 19, p < 0.005), inferred summer water temperature and inferred pH was significantly related to measured July air temperature (r = 0.50, r = −53, n = 19, p < 0.025) and inferred TN autumn concentrations had an inverse relationship to August temperatures (r = −0.53, n = 19, p < 0.01). This comparison of the historical record with diatom-inferred seasonal climate signals, based on the comparison of fossil diatom assemblages with modern sediment trap data of high temporal resolution, provides a promising new approach for the reconstruction of seasonal climate aspects in paleolimnological studies.

Ice cover as an indicator of winter air temperature changes: case study of the Polish Lowland lakes

Observations of ice cover and winter air temperature measurements were carried out on six lakes in northern Poland during the period 1961–2000. Detailed analyses of the dates of formation and termination of the ice cover, the duration of maximum thickness and ice-free period during winter were carried out. Various tendencies were found in the time series of the earliest freeze-up dates, whereas the latest ice break-up dates were recorded to occur much earlier than in the past on all the lakes, with time advance being on average from 0.6 to 0.8 day year−1. The period with ice cover has been getting shorter at the rate of 0.8 to 0.9 day year−1, with the exception of Lake Hañcza, the deepest lake in the European Lowland, where the rate of 0.4 day year−1 was recorded. Similarly, there was a decreasing tendency in the maximum thickness of the ice cover, at the rate of 0.26 to 0.60 cm year−1. Despite similar tendencies, all those changes showed diverse dynamics in particular lakes. The proposed indicator of the ice cover stability confirms the above statements, and thus, the undergoing climatic changes.

Chrysophyte resting stages: a tool for reconstructing winter/spring climate from Alpine lake sediments

Chrysophyte algae produce siliceous resting stages (stomatocysts) that are indicators of past environmental conditions. The objective of this study was to assess their strength for climate reconstructions. Stomatocysts were collected using sediment traps exposed in 45 mountain lakes (1502–2309m a.s.l., Austrian Alps). Bi-hourly water-temperature measurements were used to determine dates of freezing and break-up, spring and autumn mixing. Canonical correspondence analyses revealed that the stomatocyst assemblages were related to the dates of ice break-up and spring mixing. The two dates are controlled by winter/spring air temperature. We developed a weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) stomatocyst/date-of-spring-mixing regression and calibration model (R2boot= 0.85), and reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ for Jezero v Ledvici (1824 m a.s.l., Slovenian Alps) from AD 1842 to 1996. Sample-specific standard errors of prediction corresponded to 0.6°C - 1.0°C. Despite dating uncertainties and poor fits of fossil assemblages with the training set, reconstructed ‘dates of spring mixing’ were significantly correlated with the mean March—April air temperature, which is known to drive break-up dates. Furthermore, the record was in agreement with glacier advances during the Little Ice Age.

Trends in River-Ice Break-up Data for the Western James Bay Region of Canada

Trends in river-ice break-up date for the Moose, Albany, and Attawapiskat rivers located in the western James Bay region were examined. Regression analyses revealed several significant, but weak, linear relationships between river ice break-up date and calendar year. The directions of these relationships were also inconsistent, and so the results of the statistical analyses were considered to be inconclusive. Local and indigenous knowledge broadened our analyses with more information on changes in the timing of freeze/thaw cycles. Relatively rapid changes in climate can create problems for conventional approaches including statistical analyses, which require large data sets and long-term trends. The study indicates that while trends in river ice break-up were weak, very recent changes in break-up characteristics (signaled through local knowledge) showed that potentially drastic and rapid changes have occurred within the past few years. Future research in climate and river-ice studies ought to incorporate other knowledge systems to understand important indicators of climate changes.