Ice Breakup Dates Research Articles

Community-scale changes to landfast ice along the coast of Alaska over 2000-2022

Landfast sea ice that forms along the Arctic coastline is of great importance to coastal Alaskan communities. It provides a stable platform for transportation and traditional activities, protects the coastline from erosion, and serves as a critical habitat for marine mammals. Here we present a full assessment of landfast ice conditions across a continuous 7885 km length of the Alaska coastline over 2000–2022 using satellite imagery. We find that the maximum landfast ice extent, usually occurring in March, averaged 67 002 km2 during our study period: equivalent to 4% of the state’s land area. The maximum extent of landfast ice, however, exhibits considerable interannual variability, from a minimum of 29 871 km2 in 2019 to a maximum of 87 571 km2 in 2010. Likewise, the landfast ice edge position averages 22.9 km from the coastline but, at the community-scale, can range from 2.8 km (in Gambell) to 71.1 km (in Deering). Landfast ice breakup date averages 2 June but also varies considerably both between communities (3 May in Quinhagak to 24 July in Nuiqsut) and interannually. We identify a strong control of air temperature on breakup timing and use this relationship to project future losses of ice associated with Paris Climate Agreement targets. Under 2 °C of global air temperature warming, we estimate the average Alaskan coastal community will lose 19 days of ice, with the northernmost communities projected to lose 50 days or more. Overall, our results emphasize the highly localized nature of landfast ice processes and the vulnerability of coastal Arctic communities in a warming climate.

Warming Climate-Induced Changes in Lithuanian River Ice Phenology

Due to rising surface air temperatures, river ice is shrinking dramatically in the Northern Hemisphere. Ice cover during the cold season causes fundamental changes in river ecosystems and has important implications for nearby communities and industries. Changes caused by climate warming, therefore, affect the sustainability of key resources, livelihoods, and traditional practices. Thus far, too little attention has been paid to research into the phenomenon of river ice in the Baltic States. Since the observational data of the last sixty years are currently available, we took advantage of the unique opportunity to assess ice regime changes in the gauged rivers by comparing two climatological standard normals. By applying statistical methods (Mann–Kendall, Pettitt, SNHT, Buishand, von Neumann, and Wilcoxon rank sum tests), this study determined drastic changes in ice phenology parameters (freeze-up date, ice break-up date, and ice cover duration) of Lithuanian rivers in the last thirty-year period. The dependence of the selected parameters on local climatic factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns was identified. It was established that the sum of negative air temperatures, as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, and Arctic Oscillation indices, have the greatest influence on the ice regime of Lithuanian rivers.

Long-term forecasting methods of dates of ice break-up and disappearance at the Dnipro Cascade Reservoirs by teleconnection indicators

Long-term forecasting of the ice regime at the Dnipro Cascade Reservoirs is very important, first of all, for the operation of hydroelectric power stations. In addition, such forecasts also ensure the work of other sectors of the economy, namely shipping, fisheries, municipal engineering, etc. At present, the Department for hydrological forecasting of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center uses techniques developedin the middle and in thesecond half of the 20th century to compile long-term forecasts and advices about the ice regimeof water bodies of Ukraine. These techniqueswere developed only for rivers;for reservoirs,they are currently lacking.
 The main objective of our research is to develop methods for long-term forecasting of ice break-up and disappearance at the Dnipro Cascade Reservoirs by teleconnection indicators. The research was based on the recordsfor 35 water gauges located on 6 reservoirs of the Dnipro Cascade, including the destroyed Kakhovka reservoir. The dates of the ice break-up and disappearance were used for the period from the beginning of observations at each water gauge to 2020. Moreover, the teleconnection indicators were used, namely 34 atmospheric indices, sea surface temperature indices, teleconnection indices and patterns determined by the National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of United States of America (NOAA USA).
 Methods of the long-term forecasting of the ice break-up and disappearance at the reservoirs of the Dnipro Cascade have been developed by searching for the best correlation or regression relationship between dates and teleconnection indicators. The probable of accepted errorsof the developed methods are in the range of 62—71 %, which corresponds to satisfactory method quality that makes it possible to recommend them for use.

Долгосрочное прогнозирование сроков вскрытия реки Юкон синоптико-статистическим методом

A scheme for obtaining a long-range forecast of the dates of ice break-up is proposed for the Yukon River (North America). The scheme is based on a well-proven national practice of ice forecasting, namely, on the meteorological statistical method. The method utilizes a linear dependence of the predicted value on the characteristics of temperature and pressure fields in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. The most informative predictors are selected. Statistical stability of the forecast formula parameters is verified. The average forecast lead time is 40 days. The verification of the proposed methodology performed for three stretches of the Yukon River on the basis of independent data for the period from 2009 to 2015 showed that it allows obtaining quite satisfactory results with a fairly low root-mean-square error and a fairly high accuracy of forecasts. Keywords: river ice break-up, long-range forecast, synoptic statistical method, temperature and pressure fields, predictors, stability, method verification

Climate and juvenile recruitment as drivers of Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) dynamics in two Canadian Arctic seas

Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) is the most abundant forage fish species in Arctic seas and plays a pivotal role in the transfer of energy between zooplankton and top predators. The dominance of Arctic cod and the Arctic’s relatively low biodiversity interact such that changing population dynamics of Arctic cod have cascading effects on whole Arctic marine ecosystems. Over the last decades, warming in the Arctic has led to a decline in Arctic cod populations in the Barents Sea, but in the Canadian Arctic these conditions have been correlated with up to a 10-fold higher biomass of age-0 Arctic cod at the end of summer. However, whether this enhanced larval survival with warmer waters endures through age-1+ populations is unknown. A better understanding of spatial variation in the response of Arctic cod populations to environmental conditions is critical to forecast future changes in Arctic ecosystems. Here, we rely on a 17-year time series of acoustic-trawl surveys (2003–2019) to test whether ice-breakup date, sea surface temperature, zooplankton density, and Arctic climate indices during early life stages affect the subsequent recruitment of age-1+ Arctic cod in the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay. In the Beaufort Sea, the biomass of age-1+ Arctic cod correlated with both Arctic Oscillation indices and age-0 biomass of the previous year. In Baffin Bay, the biomass of age-1+ Arctic cod correlated with previous-year North Atlantic Oscillation indices and the timing of ice breakup. This study demonstrates that climate and environmental conditions experienced during the early life stages drive the recruitment of the age-1+ Arctic cod population and helps to quantify spatial variation in the main environmental drivers.

Terrestrial Snowmelt as a Precursor to Landfast Sea Ice Break-up in Hudson Bay and James Bay

Numerous studies have been conducted to enhance our understanding of how climate change impacts landfast ice and its break-up in spring or summer. Yet, predictions of break-up timing have proven elusive illusive, and dependent on multiple environmental drivers. In this study, we investigate whether/to what extent snow melt on land adjacent to the coast can serve as a precursor to landfast ice break-up. For the study, we used MODIS snowmelt timing products to explore the pattern of snowmelt across the study area. This was compared against landfast ice break-up dates generated mainly from CIS ice-chart, across the Hudson Bay and James Bay coast. Snowmelt timings recorded across the study area followed the same latitudinal gradient as the landfast ice break-up dates, with almost a 50-day difference between the south and the north snowmelt and ice break-up timings. The data shows that the timing of landfast ice break-up across the Hudson Bay and James Bay region showed significantly stronger correlations with the timing of terrestrial snowmelt, as compared to air temperature thresholds, with an average 17-day gap observed between snowmelt to landfast ice break-up. Based on the observations, we believe snowmelt can be a reliable precursor to landfast ice break-up.

Seasonality of zooplankton communities in the Hudson Bay system

The strong seasonality of sub-Arctic seas needs to be considered to understand their ecosystems. The Hudson Bay system undergoes strong seasonal changes in 1) sea ice conditions, alternating between complete ice cover in winter and open water in summer; 2) river discharge, which peaks in the spring and influences the stratification of the bay; and 3) surface circulation that consists of a weak double gyre system in spring and summer and a cyclonic system in the autumn. Recent studies that included data collected during spring have shown that the annual primary productivity in the Hudson Bay system is higher than previously reported. Similarly, the regional zooplankton assemblages have been studied mostly in late summer, possibly leading to an underestimation of the annual secondary production. Here, we use data collected during five one to six week-long expeditions of the CCGS Amundsen in the Hudson Bay system between 2005 and 2018 to describe the seasonality in mesozooplankton assemblages and investigate how it depends on environmental variables. In general, small pan-Arctic and boreal copepods such as Microcalanus spp., Oithona similis and Pseudocalanus spp. dominated the assemblages. From spring to summer, the relative abundance of the Arctic-adapted Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus glacialis decreased, while the proportion of the boreal Pseudocalanus spp. and Acartia spp. increased. The day of the year and the ice break-up date explained most of the variation in mesozooplankton assemblages. Physical processes explained most of the species distribution in spring, while the lack of lipid-rich zooplankton species in late summer and autumn, especially in coastal regions, suggests some top-down control. This lack of lipid-rich zooplankton late in the season contrasts with other seasonally ice-covered seas. More data are needed to fully understand the implications of these dynamics under climate change, but this study establishes a baseline against which future changes can be compared.

The role of sea ice in the distribution, habitat use, and phenology of eastern North Pacific gray whales

A strong negative relationship has been observed between calf production of eastern North Pacific gray whales Eschrichtius robustus and Pacific Arctic sea ice area with the exception of 2 potentially anomalous periods: 2013-2014 and 2017-2019. Sea ice may play a role in reproductive variability by blocking gray whale access to foraging hotspot habitats. We tested this ‘sea ice exclusion’ hypothesis using complementary aerial survey and moored hydrophone data sets that together provide broad spatial and temporal coverage. A negative relationship (generalized additive model, p < 0.001) was found between gray whale aerial counts and ice concentration in the northeast Chukchi Sea (2008-2019), with a nonlinear increase in negative slope above 45-55% concentration. A comparison of distribution patterns between years further indicated the absence of sightings within northern Bering and northeastern Chukchi foraging hotspots during years with delayed ice break-up versus years with an early-to-average ice retreat. Passive acoustic recordings likewise showed the near-absence of detections during periods of dense ice cover and indicated a strongly positive relationship between ice break-up dates and the timing of acoustic detection onset. Together, these analyses point to the important role of sea ice in gray whale distribution, habitat use, and phenology. However, a relatively consistent 10-15 d lag observed between ice break-up and acoustic onset dates suggested that the mechanism(s) underpinning gray whale interactions with sea ice may be more complex than simply ‘sea ice exclusion.’ Here, we propose ‘prey quality timing’ as a potential alternative hypothesis that warrants further investigation.

Breeding Phenology and Nestling Morphology of Bald Eagles in the Upper Midwestern United States1

Abstract We report on egg-laying and hatching dates (n = 656), and morphological characteristics (n = 642) of nestling Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from six study areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA, from 2006 to 2011, 2014, and 2015. Nestling age was estimated from length of the eighth primary feather using sex-specific equations from the literature. Egg-laying advanced from south to north beginning in late January and continuing through mid-April; hatching began in late February and ended in mid-May. Mean annual hatching dates were correlated with the average dates of ice break-up each spring at two ice-monitoring sites (n = 8 yr, r2 = 0.90). We found no significant long-term trend or shift in hatching dates over the 10 yr. Male and female nestlings overlapped in weight, footpad length, bill depth, and culmen and hallux claw chord length; however, by 35 d these features had diverged sufficiently to allow estimation of the sex of nestlings due to the larger size of females (P < 0.05 all contrasts). Our models suggest that most of the nestling traits we measured continued to grow beyond the 70 d for which we had measurements, except for footpad, which reached predicted full size by about 46 d after hatching. Footpad length and bill depth were important traits for determining the sex of nestlings ≥35 d old. We provide a classification tree that uses footpad length and bill depth to estimate the sex of nestlings. Overall accuracy of this classification tree was 91%. Individuals with footpad length ≥132 mm and bill depth ≥29 mm (46% of our sample) had a 0.95 probability of being female and individuals with footpad length <132 mm and bill depth <30 mm (41% of our sample) had a 0.92 probability of being male, making our classification tree unbiased and robust for assigning sex for most nestlings ≥35 d old.

Biophysical indicators and Indigenous and Local Knowledge reveal climatic and ecological shifts with implications for Arctic Char fisheries

Managing Arctic marine resources to be resilient to environmental changes requires knowledge of how climate change is affecting marine food webs and fisheries. Changes to fishery resources will have major implications for coastal Indigenous communities whose livelihoods, health, and cultures are strongly connected to fisheries. Understanding these broad social-ecological changes requires a transdisciplinary approach bringing together contrasting and complementary disciplines and ways of knowing. Here, we examine climatic proxies, ecological, and fishery indicators (stable isotopes, fish condition, and lipid content), and interviews with Inuit fishers to assess how marine ecosystem changes have influenced Arctic Char (Salvelinus alpinus) ecology and fisheries over a 30-year time period (1987–2016) in the Kitikmeot region of the Canadian Arctic. Inuit fishers reported several observations of environmental changes, including longer ice-free seasons, warmer ocean temperatures, and the arrival of new marine species. Biophysical data revealed important changes toward earlier dates of ice breakup (>12 days in some areas) and a shift in isotopic niche reflecting a changing Arctic Char diet, with increased contribution of pelagic carbon and higher trophic level prey. Fish condition was improved in years with earlier ice breakup, as observed by both Inuit fishers and biophysical indicators, while lipid content increased through time, suggesting that longer ice-free seasons may have a positive effect on Arctic Char quality as reflected by both fish condition and lipid content. Long-term impacts of continuing climate change, however, such as the northward expansion of boreal species and increasing ocean temperatures, could have negative effects on fisheries (e.g., physiological impairment in fish if temperatures exceed their thermal range). Continuous community-based monitoring that directly informs fisheries management could help communities and managers adaptively, and sustainably, manage in the face of multiple interacting changes in Arctic marine systems.

Sea ice extent and phenology influence breeding of high-Arctic seabirds: 4 decades of monitoring in Nunavut, Canada.

Seabirds breeding in the high Arctic contend with variable annual sea ice conditions, with important consequences depending on a species' unique reproductive and foraging ecology. We assessed the influence of sea ice extent and phenology on seabird breeding biology using monitoring data collected for northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) breeding at Prince Leopold Island, Nunavut, Canada over 4 decades. We expected that years of later sea ice break-up and greater ice cover around the colony would create greater challenges to foraging and could result in delayed nest initiation, decreased colony attendance, and lower nesting success, but with distinct responses from each species. We also tested for time-lagged effects of ice conditions, where sea ice in a given year could impact food availability or juvenile recruitment in later years. Ice conditions around the colony exhibited no significant overall temporal trends or changepoints over the past 50years (1970-2021), while counts of kittiwakes and murres increased over the study period 1975-2013. No trends were evident in counts of fulmars or gulls or in egg-laying dates or nest success for any species. However, three species (all but glaucous gulls) exhibited unique responses between breeding metrics and sea ice, highlighting how breeding decisions and outcomes may differ among species under the same environmental conditions in a given year. Time-lagged effects were only detected for kittiwake nest counts, where the date of spring ice break-up around the colony was negatively associated with counts at a 5-year lag. Greater distances to open water were associated with lower colony attendance by fulmars and later nest initiation by kittiwakes and murres. Our analyses provide additional insights to effects of sea ice on high-Arctic seabird breeding ecology, which will be useful in predicting and planning for the complex effects of a changing climate and changing human pressures on this high-latitude ecosystem and for the management of high-Arctic marine-protected areas.

Long-Term Ice Conditions in Yingkou, a Coastal Region Northeast of the Bohai Sea, between 1951/1952 and 2017/2018: Modeling and Observations

Bohai Sea ice creates obstacles for maritime navigation and offshore activities. A better understanding of ice conditions is valuable for sea-ice management. The evolution of 67 years of seasonal ice thickness in a coastal region (Yingkou) in the Northeast Bohai Sea was simulated by using a snow/ice thermodynamic model, using local weather-station data. The model was first validated by using seasonal ice observations from field campaigns and a coastal radar (the season of 2017/2018). The model simulated seasonal ice evolution well, particularly ice growth. We found that the winter seasonal mean air temperature in Yingkou increased by 0.33 °C/decade slightly higher than air temperature increase (0.27 °C/decade) around Bohai Sea. The decreasing wind-speed trend (0.05 m/s perdecade) was a lot weaker than that averaged (0.3 m/s per decade) between the early 1970s and 2010s around the entire Bohai Sea. The multi-decadal ice-mass balance revealed decreasing trends of the maximum and average ice thickness of 2.6 and 0.8 cm/decade, respectively. The length of the ice season was shortened by 3.7 days/decade, and ice breakup dates were advanced by 2.3 days/decade. All trends were statistically significant. The modeled seasonal maximum ice thickness is highly correlated (0.83, p < 0.001) with the Bohai Sea Ice Index (BoSI) used to quantify the severity of the Bohai Sea ice condition. The freezing-up date, however, showed a large interannual variation without a clear trend. The simulations indicated that Bohai ice thickness has grown continuously thinner since 1951/1952. The time to reach 0.15 m level ice was delayed from 3 January to 21 January, and the ending time advanced from 6 March to 19 February. There was a significant weakening of ice conditions in the 1990s, followed by some recovery in 2000s. The relationship between large-scale climate indices and ice condition suggested that the AO and NAO are strongly correlated with interannual changes in sea-ice thickness in the Yingkou region.

Geographic variation and temporal trends in ice phenology in Norwegian lakes during the period 1890–2020

Abstract. Long-term observations of ice phenology in lakes are ideal for studying climatic variation in time and space. We used a large set of observations from 1890 to 2020 of the timing of freeze-up and break-up, and the length of ice-free season, for 101 Norwegian lakes to elucidate variation in ice phenology across time and space. The dataset of Norwegian lakes is unusual, covering considerable variation in elevation (4–1401 m a.s.l.) and climate (from oceanic to continental) within a substantial latitudinal and longitudinal gradient (58.2–69.9∘ N, 4.9–30.2∘ E). The average date of ice break-up occurred later in spring with increasing elevation, latitude and longitude. The average date of freeze-up and the length of the ice-free period decreased significantly with elevation and longitude. No correlation with distance from the ocean was detected, although the geographical gradients were related to regional climate due to adiabatic processes (elevation), radiation (latitude) and the degree of continentality (longitude). There was a significant lake surface area effect as small lakes froze up earlier due to less volume. There was also a significant trend that lakes were completely frozen over later in the autumn in recent years. After accounting for the effect of long-term trends in the large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a significant but weak trend over time for earlier ice break-up was detected. An analysis of different time periods revealed significant and accelerating trends for earlier break-up, later freeze-up and completely frozen lakes after 1991. Moreover, the trend for a longer ice-free period also accelerated during this period, although not significantly. An understanding of the relationship between ice phenology and geographical parameters is a prerequisite for predicting the potential future consequences of climate change on ice phenology. Changes in ice phenology will have consequences for the behaviour and life cycle dynamics of the aquatic biota.

Drivers and projections of ice phenology in mountain lakes in the western United States

AbstractClimate change is causing rapid warming and altered precipitation patterns in mountain watersheds, both of which influence the timing of ice breakup in mountain lakes. To enable predictions of ice breakup in the future, we analyzed a dataset of mountain lake ice breakup dates derived from remote sensing and historical downscaled climate data. We evaluated drivers of ice breakup, constructed a predictive statistical model, and developed projections of mountain lake ice breakup date with global climate models. Using Random Forest analysis, we determined that winter and spring cumulative snow fraction (portion of precipitation falling as snow) and air temperature are the strongest predictors of ice breakup on mountain lakes. Interactions between precipitation, cumulative winter air temperature and lake surface area indicate that shifts in air temperature and precipitation affect smaller lakes (< 2 km2) more than larger lakes (> 2–10 km2). A linear mixed effects model (RMSE of 18 d), applied with an ensemble of 15 global climate models, projected that end‐of‐century ice breakup in mountain lakes will be earlier by 25 ± 4 and 61 ± 5 (mean ± SE) days for representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively.

Drivers and consequences of apex predator diet composition in the Canadian Beaufort Sea.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely on annual sea ice as their primary habitat for hunting marine mammal prey. Given their long lifespan, wide geographic distribution, and position at the top of the Arctic marine food web, the diet composition of polar bears can provide insights into temporal and spatial ecosystem dynamics related to climate-mediated sea ice loss. Polar bears with the greatest ecological constraints on diet composition may be most vulnerable to climate-related changes in ice conditions and prey availability. We used quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) to estimate the diets of polar bears (n = 419) in two western Canadian Arctic subpopulations (Northern Beaufort Sea and Southern Beaufort Sea) from 1999 to 2015. Polar bear diets were dominated by ringed seal (Pusa hispida), with interannual, seasonal, age- and sex-specific variation. Foraging area and sea ice conditions also affected polar bear diet composition. Most variation in bear diet was explained by longitude, reflecting spatial variation in prey availability. Sea ice conditions (extent, thickness, and seasonal duration) declined throughout the study period, and date of sea ice break-up in the preceding spring was positively correlated with female body condition and consumption of beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), suggesting that bears foraged on beluga whales during entrapment events. Female body condition was positively correlated with ringed seal consumption, and negatively correlated with bearded seal consumption. This study provides insights into the complex relationships between declining sea ice habitat and the diet composition and foraging success of a wide-ranging apex predator.

Implications of climate variability and changing seasonal hydrology for subarctic riverbank erosion

Warmer climatic conditions have been associated with numerous hydrologic changes that may impact riverbank erosion in cold regions, but the net effect is not well understood. We used regression and correlation analyses to examine the relationships among subarctic riverbank erosion and seasonal hydrology, the impact of climate change and variability, and the societal implications. Geomorphic change (loss and gain of vegetated land) was mapped along several river reaches in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska, throughout 1984 and 2017 using Landsat satellite imagery. Annual erosion rates were estimated from these spatial data. At most study sites, erosion rates (km2/year) were either positively correlated (r = 0.68–0.84, p = 0.0085–0.061) with monthly mean discharge within the cold season or inversely correlated (r = − 0.74 – −0.62, p < 0.10) with river ice breakup date in the spring. These proximate controls on erosion, in turn, were influenced both by climate variability and long-term climatic change. We conclude that increased cold season discharge and earlier freshet that occurs under warmer conditions enhance riverbank erosion in most areas. Climate-related changes to fluvial dynamics may impact communities through effects on infrastructure, travel safety, channel navigability, fish and wildlife habitat, and access to subsistence resources.

Ecosystem response to earlier ice break-up date: Climate-driven changes to water temperature, lake-habitat-specific production, and trout habitat and resource use.

Climate warming has yielded earlier ice break-up dates in recent decades for lakes leading to water temperature increases, altered habitat, and both increases and decreases to ecosystem productivity. Within lakes, the effect of climate warming on secondary production in littoral and pelagic habitats remains unclear. The intersection of changing habitat productivity and warming water temperatures on salmonids is important for understanding how climate warming will impact mountain ecosystems. We develop and test a conceptual model that expresses how earlier ice break-up dates influence within lake habitat production, water temperatures and the habitat utilized by, resources obtained and behavior of salmonids in a mountain lake. We measured zoobenthic and zooplankton production from the littoral and pelagic habitats, thermal conditions, and the habitat use, resource use, and fitness of Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We show that earlier ice break-up conditions created a "resource-rich" littoral-benthic habitat with increases in zoobenthic production compared to the pelagic habitat which decreased in zooplankton production. Despite the increases in littoral-benthic food resources, trout did not utilize littoral habitat or zoobenthic resources due to longer durations of warm water temperatures in the littoral zone. In addition, 87% of their resources were supported by the pelagic habitat during periods with earlier ice break-up when pelagic resources were least abundant. The decreased reliance on littoral-benthic resources during earlier ice break-up caused reduced fitness (mean reduction of 12g) to trout. Our data show that changes to ice break-up drive multi-directional results for resource production within lake habitats and increase the duration of warmer water temperatures in food-rich littoral habitats. The increased duration of warmer littoral water temperatures reduces the use of energetically efficient habitats culminating in decreased trout fitness.

Application of an ice-ocean coupled model to Bohai Sea ice simulation

The HAMSOM (Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model), a high-resolution regional ice-ocean coupled model, was applied to investigate the seasonal evolution of Bohai Sea ice for winter 2015/2016. HAMSOM was initialized with monthly climatological temperature and salinity data from WOA13 and driven by hourly meteorological data obtained from the NCEP above the sea surface and tides at the open boundary. The ice model used here is a modified Hibler-type dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model based upon viscous-plastic rheology. The ice extent, concentration, area, thickness, length of ice season as well as the distance between the top of Liaodong Bay (North China) and the outer ice edge line were simulated and compared with the observed data. Three types of modeling experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of wind, tide, and both wind and tide on Bohai Sea ice. The results show that wind, as both a dynamic and a thermodynamic factor, has a significant impact on the ice thickness, ice area, and ice-freezing and ice breakup dates as well as the ice velocity, while tides are a dynamic factor that influences only the ice velocity. During the severe ice period, the wind speed intensity increased by 25%, the average ice thickness thickened by approximately 4.0 cm in Liaodong Bay, approximately 2.1 cm in Bohai Bay and approximately 2.5 cm in Laizhou Bay, and the total ice coverage area and total ice actual area increased by about 2×104 km2 and 1.4×104 km2, respectively. While the tidal amplitude intensity increased by 25%, the average ice velocity increased by approximately 0.1 m/s.

Modeling River Ice Breakup Dates by k-Nearest Neighbor Ensemble

Forecasting of river ice breakup timing is directly related to the local ice-caused flooding management. However, river ice forecasting using k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithms is limited. Thus, a kNN stacking ensemble learning (KSEL) method was developed and applied to forecasting breakup dates (BDs) for the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray in Canada. The kNN base models with diverse inputs and distance functions were developed and their outputs were further combined. The performance of these models was examined using the leave-one-out cross validation method based on the historical BDs and corresponding climate and river conditions in 1980–2015. The results indicated that the kNN with the Chebychev distance functions generally outperformed other kNN base models. Through the simple average methods, the ensemble kNN models using multiple-type (Mahalanobis and Chebychev) distance functions had the overall optimal performance among all models. The improved performance indicates that the kNN ensemble is a promising tool for river ice forecasting. The structure of optimal models also implies that the breakup timing is mainly linked with temperature and water flow conditions before breakup as well as during and just after freeze up.

Reaching a breaking point: How is climate change influencing the timing of ice breakup in lakes across the northern hemisphere?

AbstractThe duration of seasonal winter ice cover has declined in many mid‐ and high‐latitude regions around the world as climate continues to warm. We obtained data on lake ice breakup dates, air temperature, precipitation, and large‐scale climate oscillations for 152 lakes across the northern hemisphere from 1951 to 2014. Ninety‐seven percent of study lakes exhibited earlier ice breakup trends. Forty‐six percent of the variation in ice breakup trends was driven by spring air temperatures and elevation across the northern hemisphere. However, changes in ice breakup have not always been in a gradual or linear pattern. Using the sequential T‐test analysis of regime shifts, we found evidence of abrupt changes in mean ice breakup for 53% of lakes with shift years identified between 1970 and 2002. Concurrently, we found abrupt changes in mean spring and winter air temperatures, winter precipitation, and large‐scale climate oscillations that occurred either the same year or 1 yr prior. Earlier ice breakup and the shortening of the ice season will have consequences for winter heritage, local economies, and lake ecosystems around the world.