Survey Date Research Articles

High levels of mortality, malnutrition, and measles, among recently-displaced Somali refugees in Dagahaley camp, Dadaab refugee camp complex, Kenya, 2011.

BackgroundFollowing a rapid influx of over 200,000 displaced Somalis into the Dadaab refugee camp complex in Kenya, Médecins Sans Frontières conducted a mortality and nutrition survey of the population living in Bulo Bacte, a self-settled area surrounding Dagahaley camp (part of this complex).MethodsThe survey was conducted between 31st July and 10th August 2011. We exhaustively interviewed representatives from all households in Bulo Bacte, collecting information on deaths, births, and population movements during the recall period (15th February 2011 to survey date), in order to provide estimates of retrospective death rates. We recorded the mid-upper arm circumference and presence or absence of bipedal oedema of all children of height 67-<110 cm to provide estimates of global and severe acute malnutrition.ResultsThe surveyed population included 26,583 individuals, of whom 6,488 (24.4%) were children aged under 5 years. There were 360 deaths reported during the 177 days of the recall period, of which 186 (52%) were among children aged under 5 years. The crude death rate for the entire recall period was 0.8 per 10,000 person-days. The under-5 death rate was 1.8 per 10,000 person-days. More than two-thirds of all deaths were reported to have been associated with diarrhoea (25%), cough or other breathing difficulties (24%), or with fever (19%). Measles accounted for a reported 17% of all deaths; this was due to a measles outbreak that occurred between June and October 2011.Global acute malnutrition was observed in 13.4%, and severe acute malnutrition in 3.0%, of children measuring 67-<110 cm. Among children measuring 110-< 140 cm, 9.8% met the admission criteria for entry into the nutritional programme. Trends of decreasing death rates and malnutrition prevalence with length of stay in Bulo Bacte were observed.ConclusionsWe report high death rates and prevalence of malnutrition among this population, reflecting at least a partial failure of the various humanitarian and governmental actors to adequately safeguard the welfare of this population. An outbreak of measles and long delays before registration should not have occurred. The recommendations for measles vaccination among crisis-affected populations should be revised to take into account the epidemiologic context. Organisations must be sensitive and reactive to changes in the health status of the populations they assist.

Incidence of and Risk Factors for Low Birth Weight in Oman: A Population Based Study

The purpose of this study was to provide levels, t rends and determinants of low birth weight (LBW) in Oman using population based health survey data. The data for the study come from the 2000 Nat ional Health Survey of Oman. The sample consists of 977 singleton live births that occurred during five years before the survey date. The survey gathered data on birth weight from child health card. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques and tests were employed for data analysis. The incidence of LBW was observed to be 9% in Oman in 2000. LBW rate shows increasing trends in Oman. The results of both bivariate and mult ivariate analysis revealed that maternal low level of education, low income level, primipara, late and low ANC visits, preterm b irths, pregnancy complications and region of residence in A l-Batinah were significantly associated with the increased risk of LBW in Oman. Consanguinity shows insignificant marginal effect on LBW. In order to reduce the incidence of low b irth weight, health improvement strategies should focus on special care and intervention programs for high risk groups identified in the study.

Utilization of Health Care Services for Childhood Morbidity and Associated Factors in India: A National Cross-Sectional Household Survey

BackgroundInformation about utilization of health services and associated factors are useful for improving service delivery to achieve universal health coverage.MethodsData on a sample of ever-married women from India Demographic and Health survey 2005–06 was used. Mothers of children aged 0–59 months were asked about child’s illnesses and type of health facilities where treatment was given during 15 days prior to the survey date. Type of health facilities were grouped as informal provider, public provider and private provider. Factors associated with utilization of health services for diarrhea and fever/cough was assessed according to Andersen’s health behavior model. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were done considering sampling weights for complex sampling design.ResultsA total of 48,679 of ever-married women reported that 9.1% 14.8% and 17.67% of their children had diarrhea, fever and cough respectively. Nearly one-third of the children with diarrhea and fever/cough did not receive any treatment. Two-thirds of children who received treatment were from private health care providers (HCPs). Among predisposing factors, children aged 1–2 years and those born at health facility (public/private) were more likely to be taken to any type of HCP during illness. Among enabling factors, as compared to poorer household, wealthier households were 2.5 times more likely to choose private HCPs for any illness. Children in rural areas were likely to be taken to any type of HCP for diarrhea but rural children were less likely to utilize private HCP for fever/cough. ‘Need’ factors i.e. children having severe symptoms were 2–3 times more likely to be taken to any type of HCP.ConclusionPrivate HCPs were preferred for treatment of childhood illnesses. Involvement of private HCPs may be considered while planning child health programs. Health insurance scheme for childhood illnesses may to protect economically weaker sections from out-of-pocket health expenditure during child illness.

Local Distribution Factors and Sampling Effort Guidelines for the Rare Frosted Elfin Butterfly

Callophrys irus (Frosted Elfin) is threatened under New York State conservation law and has fewer than 5 secure populations within the state. Published research on these populations is needed to support the development of a state recovery plan and monitoring program for the species. We assessed the relationship between adult occupancy (patch use) in the Albany Pine Bush Preserve and a suite of potential controlling factors. We then used the results in a simulation framework to quantitatively inform how many sites and surveys are needed for Frosted Elfin occupancy monitoring. Patch use was best explained by a model that assumed the same occupancy probability for each patch. The species was more likely to use patches with limited shrub cover and greater host plant density, yet showed a good chance (>76%) of using even the smaller patches (<1 ha) with relatively sparse density (<1000 ramets ha-1). Detection probability depended primarily on observer and survey date, ranging from 0.34 to 0.94 among observers and from 0.35 to 0.96 across surveys. In the worst-case scenario (i.e., low detectability and low intrinsic occupancy rate), minimum effort for adult Frosted Elfin occupancy monitoring in habitat similar to the Albany Pine Bush may require at least 20 habitat patches surveyed 6 times each or at least 10 habitat patches surveyed 8 times each. Less effort (e.g., 10 sites × 4 surveys) will likely suffice if surveys are restricted to the period of peak abundance. Adult occupancy (or patch use) is probably the most efficient state variable for monitoring Frosted Elfin populations, and changes in detection-corrected occupancy rate or proportion of area occupied could be useful for conservation planning.

Error analysis of Ordnance Survey map tidelines, UK

Historical trend analysis is often used at the coastline to provide rates of coastal erosion or accretion as part of shoreline or beach management studies. The long-term data for historical trend analysis at UK sites often come from tidelines (representing high or low water) from Ordnance Survey (or older) maps. Recent Ordnance Survey (OS) digital maps no longer retain the date of survey, which is needed for historical trend analysis. An alternative is to use datum-based tidelines from survey data, although these are different from the proxy-based tidelines on OS maps. The plotting of tidelines on OS maps is reviewed and the errors involved in establishing the positions of tidelines are divided into source uncertainty, interpretation uncertainty and natural shoreline variability. Methods of calculating these errors are presented and examples provided. The methods for including uncertainties in historical trend analysis are introduced. Adoption of these methods would allow the significance of changes in tidelines to be assessed, which will assist coastal management.

섬진강 하구에 서식하는 저서성 대형무척추동물의 군집구조 및 공간 규모에서 다양성

섬진강에서 2009년과 2010년 사이의 대형무척추동물에 대한 생물학적 군락 분석을 실시하였다. 조사 정점에 재해 총 10목 24과 106종이 채집이 되었다. 비록 정점별 종과 개체수는 다르지만 조사 시기별로는 정점 간 유의한 차이를 나타내지 않았다. 정점별 우점종은 달랐다. 2009년 5월 정점에 대해 정점 1이 5종인 반면 정점 2는 66종으로 차이를 보였으며 평균 종수는 38.3종이었다. 반면에 정점 2는 2009년 11월에 가장 많은 종수를 나타내었고 정점 3은 가장 낮았다. 대형무척추동물 중에서 절지동물문(Phylum Arthropod)이 종 수준 또는 개체 수준에서 우점이었는데 종 수준으로 5월은 63.2%, 11월은 60.9%였다. 조사 정점에 대한 환경 인자 분석의 결과 대형무척추 동물의 서식에 미치는 인자로 용존산소량(DO), 생물학적 산소요구량(BOD), 화학적 산소요구량(COD)이 중요한 것으로 나타났다. 생물학적 종다양도는 섬진강 상류에서 하류로 갈수록 낮아지는 경향을 나타내었다. Biological assessments of the macrobenthos community were carried out in the Seomjin River from May 2009 to November 2010. Fishes from 106 species belonging to 24 families and 10 orders were collected from the survey sites. Locational dominant species differed among sites, and the numbers of species and individuals differed depending on site, although six sites were not significantly different on the same survey dates. Across sites, the average number of species was 38.3, ranging from five at site 1 to 66 at site 2 in May 2009. Site 2 had the highest number of species on November 2009, while site 3 had the lowest. Arthropods dominated the macrobenthic community at species (63.2% May) and individual (60.9% November) levels. DO, BOD, and COD were shown to have the greatest effect on the numbers of macrobenthos. Peaks in the diversity index trended downwards from upstream to downstream sites.

Investigation into Self-Medication of Drugs for Primary and Adjunct Therapy in Psychiatric Diseases Among Students in Chittagong City of Bangladesh: A Comparison Between Medical and Nonmedical Students

Background:All kinds of drugs are available over the counter in Bangladesh.Aim:The objective of this study was to investigate the over the counter use of self medicated drugs for primary and adjunct therapy in psychiatric diseases among medical and nonmedical students.Materials and Methods:101 medical students and 186 nonmedical students were found, who used at least one of the nine drugs (believed as antipsychotics among nonmedical people) under survey within 6 months prior to survey date. The nine drugs used for survey were domperidone, sertraline, amitriptyline, midazolam, diazepam, prochlorperazine bromazepam, flupentixol–melitracen, and clonazepam.Statistical Analysis:Snowball sampling method was used. The symptoms, diseases, etc. of the students and the length of therapies they had followed for the respective drugs were noted.Results:Among nonmedical students, several cases were found where drugs were being self medicated in wrong indications, for example, use of flupentixol melitracen and domperidone to treat headache.Conclusion:The nonmedical students chose the fast acting drugs having the strongest effects for self medication.

Phytosociological Relevé Database of Japan (PRDB)

The Phytosociological Releve Database of Japan (PRDB; GIVD ID AS-JP-001) is the database composed of many plot (releve) data on every type of vegetation, which have been collected throughout Japan with the phytosociological method. A releve datum comprises the ID no., survey date, surveyor name, references, surveyed area, location, environmental data, community structure, species name and their dominance, etc. The PRDB provides the information on the distribution of a variety of species. The PRDB has been constructed by research projects about the assessment of climate change impact on vegetation and biodiversity.

Population history and palaeoenvironment in the Skomantai archaeological site, West Lithuania: Two thousand years

This paper presents the results of multidisciplinary investigations, i.e., archaeological, lithological, sedimentological, palynological, chronological (14C and thermoluminescence (TL)), geochemical and geophysical, to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental conditions and peculiarities of the population history at the Skomantai archaeological site (e.g., hill fort, western and southeastern foot settlements), W Lithuania. Detailed lithological and sedimentological investigations, are applied to describe the cultural formations that comprise two cultural layers, both in the Skomantai hill fort territory, and two foot settlements. These formations developed in response to human occupation intervals according to archaeological data, 14C and TL surveys date to the Early Iron Age – Migration Period and the mid-13th c.–mid-14th c. AD, when the site burned down after the attacks by the Teutonic Order. Collected ceramics suggest that representatives of the West Balts' Barrow culture settled in the area during the Early Iron Age. Distinct erosive events are most probably related to reconstructing the hill fort, coupled with the above-mentioned intervals of people activity. Increased amounts of particular elements, i.e., S, Br, Ca, Mn and P, recorded in the cultural layers suggest the predominance of timber constructions in the territory and intensive wood use. Preliminary results from geomagnetic prospection have provided the opportunity to identify linearly arranged archaeological features that may indicate the location of a former building or fence structure. The paleobotanical evidence establishes that human interference in the environment was noticeable during the Early Middle Ages, including mixed pastoral/arable land use with Secale cerealia and Fagopyrum cultivation.

Effects of Water Management, Connectivity, and Surrounding Land use on Habitat use by Frogs in Rice Paddies in Japan

In Japan, rice paddies play an important role as a substitute habitat for wetland species, and support rich indigenous ecosystems. However, since the 1950s, agricultural modernization has altered the rice paddy environment, and many previously common species are now endangered. It is urgently necessary to evaluate rice paddies as habitats for conservation. Among the species living in rice paddies, frogs are representative and are good indicator species, so we focused on frog species and analyzed the influence of environmental factors on their habitat use. We found four frog species and one subspecies (Hyla japonica, Pelophylax nigromaculatus, Glandirana rugosa, Lithobates catesbeianus, and Pelophylax porosa brevipoda) at our study sites in Shiga prefecture. For all but L. catesbeianus, we analyzed the influence of environmental factors related to rice paddy structure, water management and availability, agrochemical use, connectivity, and land use on breeding and non-breeding habitat use. We constructed generalized additive mixed models with survey date as the smooth term and applied Akaike's information criterion to choose the bestranked model. Because life histories and biological characteristics vary among species, the factors affecting habitat use by frogs are also expected to differ by species. We found that both breeding and non-breeding habitat uses of each studied species were influenced by different combinations of environmental factors and that in most cases, habitat use showed seasonality. For frog conservation in rice paddies, we need to choose favorable rice paddy in relation to surrounding land use and apply suitable management for target species.

Pole-ward range expansion of Acropora spp. along the east coast of Australia

[Extract] Global temperature has warmed approximately 0.35 °C over the last 50 years. In response, many tropical species are expanding their ranges pole-ward. For example, a number of tropical fish species have recently established populations in temperate regions along the east coast of Australia, as rises in sea temperatures enable them to survive over winter (Figueria and Booth 2010). Similarly, in Japan, two common tropical Acropora species have been expanding their range pole-ward since the 1930s (Yamano et al. 2011). However, there is no evidence to date of similar changes in the distribution of corals along the east coast of Australia. In December 2011, in the Solitary Islands (30 °S), we observed four coral species that had not been recorded in the previous extensive surveys of scleractinian corals (Harriott et al. 1994 and references therein): Acropora intermedia, A. microclados, A. monticulosa (Fig. 1) and A. gemmifera. These species are well defined morphologically, they are easy to recognise in the field and the colonies observed were all large (Fig. 1). Consequently, they were unlikely to have been overlooked in the previous surveys. Average winter temperatures in the Solitary Islands have increased by approximately 0.5 °C since 1975 (Figueria and Booth 2010), the date of the first coral surveys. These pole-ward range expansions raise the possibility that corals along the east coast of Australia may be in the process of adjusting to changes in the regional environment caused by global warming.

Reclaiming the F Word: The New Feminist Movement, by Catherine Redfern and Kristin Aune

Catherine Redfern and Kristin Aune Reclaiming the F Word: The New Feminist Movement, Zed Books: London, 2010, 269 pp: 9781848133945 65 [pounds sterling] (hbk); 9781848133952 12.99 [pounds sterling] (pbk); 9781848133969 (ebk) Although I have identified myself as a feminist for a goodly number of years, it was disconcerting to learn that I have been relegated to a wave. Wave 1 was assigned to the suffragists of the late-19th and early 20th century; wave 2 embraced the 'personal is political' activists of the 1960s and 70s; wave 3 encompasses the daughters of wave 2; and, according to Susan Faludi (2010), wave 4 is gaining momentum as I write. I find the 'wave' designation troubling, because my mind conjures images of turbulent seas rolling and roiling towards a craggy shore. Much as the breakers bear down on and annihilate their predecessors, the metaphor suggests that later feminists diminish and replace the generations that came before. Indeed, my reading reveals that, in current feminism, the use of 'wave' is entirely appropriate. One of the reasons for my distress about the nomenclature is that many of the issues that feminism has addressed from its inception remain on the table: male hegemony in political, legal, economic, religious, cultural, entertainment, and media systems; inequality in the work place; imbalance in the domestic sphere; sexual tyranny; and violence against women and children. The perpetuation of these 'norms' suggests that women, not solely feminists, of ali ages and cultures should be united in redressing the inequities. Aren't women's issues just one big, wave-less ocean? Reclaiming the F Word is commendable in that it is devoted, in large part, to the issues. Catherine Redfern and Kristen Aune identify seven themes, whose contents align, to a large degree, with the agenda of 1970s feminists: 'liberated bodies; sexual freedom and choice; an end to violence against women; equality at work and home; politics and religion transformed; popular culture free from sexism; feminism reclaimed' (p. 17). Each theme comprises a chapter wherein the topic receives in-depth coverage, and concludes with strategies that promote engagement in activities that bring public attention to the issue. In contrast to the political marches and sit-ins that characterised the women's movement for their mothers and grandmothers, today's feminists are encouraged, individually, to do things like write letters and emails, boycott products and businesses, behave ethically, lobby authority, support relevant organisations, and network. While some of these ideas seem obvious, the authors are guiding 'new' feminists who lack a visible entity with which to identify. Underpinning the book is a survey of 1,265 respondents from the United Kingdom. The dates of the year-long survey are not stated, although the participants were solicited from 'post-2000' feminist organisations, both actual and electronic. They ranged in age from 15 to 81, with 62 per cent being under 30 years old, and 7.1 per cent were male (the survey results are contained in an Appendix). Their ethnicity was more than 90 per cent 'white' (English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, Irish, British, other); and the same percentage of respondents had post-secondary education. Alongside demographic data, the survey amassed ticked boxes on questions such as longevity as a feminist, affiliation with types of feminism, priority of issues, and views on today's feminism. Redfern and Aune also conducted an unknown number of interviews, and scanned blogs and writings whose bons mots pepper the text. As noted above, the authors state that women's concerns, now, are the same as they were fifty years ago: their survey shows that 85 per cent of participants believe that today's issues are 'quite' or 'very' similar to those of the 1970s (16). …

Outlay equivalence analysis of child gender bias in household expenditure data

This article reports the results of an empirical analysis of gender-based discrimination among children based on household consumption data from Uzbekistan. We employ the outlay equivalence methodology to examine whether the entry of a new child leads to different effects in the decrease of adult good consumption for boys and for girls. We use a semi-parametric estimation method to address the so-called ‘zero consumption problem’, the statistical problem that arises because some households have zero consumption on a budget line in the period prior to the survey date. The results indicate that alcohol and tobacco reveal the incidence of discrimination against girls, while other groups of adult goods do not.

Age, composition and paleoenvironmental significance of a Late Pleistocene eolianite from the western Black Sea coast of Turkey

On the basis of field observations, thin section interpretations, microanalytical data, electrical resistivity survey and luminescence dating, the age, composition and internal structure of coastal eolianite on the west Black Sea coast at Şile, Istanbul, was studied for a combined interpretation of dune rock development and facies characteristics. Results demonstrate that the eolianite is made up of south-dipping, large-scale dune stratification, consisting mainly of quartz sand and, in particular, abundant ooids, as well as the binding cement which is composed of calcite and aragonite. Based on Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) images, the eolianite has a thickness of between 3.5 m and 8 m and overlies a buried rugged topography that has developed on the Pliocene unit. This suggests the predominance of northerly winds that account for the landward removal of dune sands by offshore wind drift prior to carbonate cementation. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating estimations revealed that the initial deposition of the laminated eolianite layers on the underlying older unit took place at 138.57 ± 13.65 ka, matching the Karangatian highstand or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e.

Abstract LB-339: Cause of death in cancer survivors

Abstract Background: Cancer, in general, is regarded as one of the most life threatening diseases. In the past decade, with the application of advanced scientific and medical technologies for cancer early detection, prevention, and treatment, cancer survivors are now living much longer and do not died directly from cancer, but from other diseases and complications, therefore, becomes increasingly important to understand major causes of death among cancer survivors to improve the quality of life and prolong life expectancy of cancer survivors. We conducted a study to investigate the cause of death among cancer survivors using data from national surveys. Methods: The analytical population consist of 1807 cancer survivors identified from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III 1988-1994 and NHANES 1999- 2004. We excluded participants with age less than 18 years old and those with skin cancer. Cancer survivors were identified if they self-reported having ever been told by a doctor or other health professional that he/she had cancer or a malignancy of any kind. The cause of death was ascertained through the National Death Index (NDI). All participants were followed from the date of survey to the date of the survey to December 31, 2006 by linking NDI death certificate records. Results: The Follow-up time ranged from 0 to 17.3 years. Total 776 participants died during the follow-up period. Underlying cause of death were recoded as 113 death causes in the National Death Index. We classified all death causes into 3 categories: related with cancer, indeterminate and not related with cancer. The causes of death were stratified by the duration since the diagnosis of cancer, which was calculated as follow-up time plus years between age at NHANES survey and age when being diagnosed with cancer. Commonly reported types of cancer were prostate (n=165), breast (n=141) and colorectal cancer (n=117) among 761 male and 1046 female participants. At time of the survey, there were 17.7% and 26.5% with diabetes, 63.2 and 66.9 with cardiovascular condition, and 58.7 and 62.9 had hypertension, and 61.3% and 70.5% with hypercholesterolemia in men and women, respectively. Among the deseeded cancer survivor, 41.8%, 9.3, and 48.9% were died from cancer, indeterminate, disease not related with cancer. The percentages were 43.4%, 6.2% and 50.4%, respectively in men and 40.4%, 12.1% and 47.6%, respectively in women. Noticeably, with the increase of the duration since diagnosis of cancer, higher percentage of cancer survivor died from disease not related to cancer, ranging from 23.3% within 5 years to 72.1% in more than 30 years (p value for trend &amp;lt;0.001). Conclusion: Although cancer is the major cause of death among cancer survivors, approximately half of participants died from other diseases and complications, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Clinicians and cancer survivors should pay attention to the prevention and treatment of other diseases and complications. Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 103rd Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2012 Mar 31-Apr 4; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2012;72(8 Suppl):Abstract nr LB-339. doi:1538-7445.AM2012-LB-339

Association between chronic morbidity and early retirement in Italy

To examine the association between early retirement and presence of chronic morbidity in an Italian working population approaching the statutory pension age. The study population consisted of men and women aged 45-59 years, employed at some time in the past (n = 18,547), who participated in a national cross-sectional survey, conducted in 2005. By means of a standardized questionnaire, information was collected on employment status, chronic diseases, and sociodemographics. The outcome was being retired as of the survey date. The association with number of diseases reported and specific long-term illnesses was assessed through multivariate Poisson regression models with robust standard errors, adjusted for potential confounders (p < 0.05). In the final multivariable models, people with poorer health were more likely to retire earlier. Diseases of the nervous system, malignant tumors, myocardial infarction, other cardiac diseases, and arthrosis/arthritis were the illnesses most strongly associated with early retirement; furthermore, the risk of retirement increased linearly as the number of diseases reported increased. Among other covariates, age, area of residence, educational level, and occupational social class were also significantly associated with the outcome. Occupational social class significantly modified the association between morbidity and retirement in men, among whom a higher risk of retirement associated with morbidity was observed in the highest, compared with lower social classes. A statistically significant and independent association between chronic morbidity and early retirement was observed among subjects approaching the statutory pension age, suggesting the need to develop interventions to improve prevention and treatment of chronic conditions.

A sampling design and model for estimating abundance of Nile crocodiles while accounting for heterogeneity of detectability of multiple observers

AbstractAs part of the development of a management program for Nile crocodiles in Lake Nasser, Egypt, we used a dependent double‐observer sampling protocol with multiple observers to compute estimates of population size. To analyze the data, we developed a hierarchical model that allowed us to assess variation in detection probabilities among observers and survey dates, as well as account for variation in crocodile abundance among sites and habitats. We conducted surveys from July 2008–June 2009 in 15 areas of Lake Nasser that were representative of 3 main habitat categories. During these surveys, we sampled 1,086 km of lake shore wherein we detected 386 crocodiles. Analysis of the data revealed significant variability in both inter‐ and intra‐observer detection probabilities. Our raw encounter rate was 0.355 crocodiles/km. When we accounted for observer effects and habitat, we estimated a surface population abundance of 2,581 (2,239–2,987, 95% credible intervals) crocodiles in Lake Nasser. Our results underscore the importance of well‐trained, experienced monitoring personnel in order to decrease heterogeneity in intra‐observer detection probability and to better detect changes in the population based on survey indices. This study will assist the Egyptian government establish a monitoring program as an integral part of future crocodile harvest activities in Lake Nasser. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.

The validity of heart failure diagnoses obtained from administrative registers

Population-based administrative registers could be used for identifying heart failure (HF) cases. However, the validity of the classification obtained from administrative registers is not known. The validity of HF diagnoses obtained by record linkage of administrative databases in Finland was assessed against classification by three independent physicians. Data from the nationwide registers in Finland - the Hospital Discharge Register, Causes of Death Register, Drug Reimbursement Register, and pharmacy prescription data - were linked with the FINRISK 1997 survey data. Cases with hospitalizations before the survey date with HF as one of the discharge diagnoses, cases with special reimbursement for HF drugs before the survey date and cases with the use of furosemide before the survey date were classified as HF in the registers. All these cases, cases with baseline brain natriuretic peptide > 100 pg/ml, and cases with use of digoxin were independently assessed by two physicians as HF/no HF. Discrepant cases were solved by a third physician. This classification was considered as the gold standard, against which the registers were assessed. The specificity of the registers was 99.7% (95% CI 99.5-99.8%), positive predictive value 85.9% (95% CI 79.7-90.5%), negative predictive value 97.9% (95% CI 97.6-98.2%), and sensitivity 48.5% (95% CI 42.9-54.2%). Classification obtained from administrative registers has high specificity and can be used in follow-up studies with HF as an end point. Sensitivity is modest and administrative data should be used with caution for surveillance.

What Actually Causes Mortgage Defaults, Redefaults, and Modifications

I use new household level data to simultaneously test three competing hypothesis about the primary cause of mortgage default. I consider the potential interactions of individual unemployment spells, negative equity, and unsecured debt. Unlike past studies that were only able to control for regional unemployment rates, I find that the double trigger event of job loss and negative equity is crucial in determining default as has been widely hypothesized in the literature. In every specification considered, the interaction term between unemployment and negative equity is significant indicating that double trigger events are the culprit in generating persistent defaults as hypothesized by Foote, Gerardi, and Willen (2009). I find that a person who has negative equity and who is unemployed is 10% more likely to default than a person who has just negative equity. The negative equity alone only makes a person 1.45% more likely to default, a factor of 6 smaller than the interaction probability. Unsecured debt plays a tertiary role compared to negative equity and unemployment, and past modifications make someone 20% more likely to have defaulted at the survey date. Redefaults, which are defaults after modification, are also well predicted by an interaction between unemployment and negative equity, and modifications are best predicted by past negative equity which makes someone 8% more likely to receive a modification.

Tidal flares and rates from an archival cluster survey

Tidal disruption flares (TDFs) are potent indicators of the co-evolution of galaxies and the massive black holes (MBHs) which they host in their nuclei, both in terms of the individual black holes revealed by tidal flares and in terms of the overall disruption rate. We examine key concerns regarding the disruption rate from an observational perspective. We also present the findings to date of an archival survey of galaxy clusters using X-ray variability selection and multi-wavelength follow-up. We present a disruption rate that is consistent with other observational and theoretical findings to date, as well as two noteworthy X-ray flares which we attribute to tidal disruption events.