Date May Research Articles

An Epidemiological Model Considering Isolation to Predict COVID-19 Trends in Tokyo, Japan: Numerical Analysis.

BackgroundCOVID-19 currently poses a global public health threat. Although Tokyo, Japan, is no exception to this, it was initially affected by only a small-level epidemic. Nevertheless, medical collapse nearly happened since no predictive methods were available to assess infection counts. A standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemiological model has been widely used, but its applicability is limited often to the early phase of an epidemic in the case of a large collective population. A full numerical simulation of the entire period from beginning until end would be helpful for understanding COVID-19 trends in (separate) counts of inpatient and infectious cases and can also aid the preparation of hospital beds and development of quarantine strategies.ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop an epidemiological model that considers the isolation period to simulate a comprehensive trend of the initial epidemic in Tokyo that yields separate counts of inpatient and infectious cases. It was also intended to induce important corollaries of governing equations (ie, effective reproductive number) and equations for the final count.MethodsTime-series data related to SARS-CoV-2 from February 28 to May 23, 2020, from Tokyo and antibody testing conducted by the Japanese government were adopted for this study. A novel epidemiological model based on a discrete delay differential equation (apparent time-lag model [ATLM]) was introduced. The model can predict trends in inpatient and infectious cases in the field. Various data such as daily new confirmed cases, cumulative infections, inpatients, and PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test positivity ratios were used to verify the model. This approach also derived an alternative formulation equivalent to the standard SIR model.ResultsIn a typical parameter setting, the present ATLM provided 20% less infectious cases in the field compared to the standard SIR model prediction owing to isolation. The basic reproductive number was inferred as 2.30 under the condition that the time lag T from infection to detection and isolation is 14 days. Based on this, an adequate vaccine ratio to avoid an outbreak was evaluated for 57% of the population. We assessed the date (May 23) that the government declared a rescission of the state of emergency. Taking into consideration the number of infectious cases in the field, a date of 1 week later (May 30) would have been most effective. Furthermore, simulation results with a shorter time lag of T=7 and a larger transmission rate of α=1.43α0 suggest that infections at large should reduce by half and inpatient numbers should be similar to those of the first wave of COVID-19.ConclusionsA novel mathematical model was proposed and examined using SARS-CoV-2 data for Tokyo. The simulation agreed with data from the beginning of the pandemic. Shortening the period from infection to hospitalization is effective against outbreaks without rigorous public health interventions and control.

Five-Year Analysis of Murano Study Demonstrates Enduring Undetectable Minimal Residual Disease (uMRD) in a Subset of Relapsed/Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (R/R CLL) Patients (Pts) Following Fixed-Duration Venetoclax-Rituximab (VenR) Therapy (Tx)

Five-Year Analysis of Murano Study Demonstrates Enduring Undetectable Minimal Residual Disease (uMRD) in a Subset of Relapsed/Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (R/R CLL) Patients (Pts) Following Fixed-Duration Venetoclax-Rituximab (VenR) Therapy (Tx)

Real-World Use of Maintenance Therapy and Associated Outcomes Following Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in US Patients with Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma

Background: In patients with newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) who receive frontline autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT), maintenance therapy (MT) following ASCT has been shown to delay disease progression and death. Current National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines also recommend MT for patients with MM, including the use of lenalidomide, bortezomib-based regimens, or ixazomib. However, there is limited evidence on the use and outcomes associated with MT in contemporary real-world patients. The present study assessed MT treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in a real-world US cohort of patients with NDMM following ASCT. Methods: This retrospective, observational cohort study included NDMM patients initially diagnosed from 2011-2018 who received frontline ASCT. Patients were selected from the US Flatiron Health (FH) deidentified electronic health record (EHR)-derived database, which includes longitudinal patient-level data from over 265 community-based and academic cancer clinics across the US. To ensure capture of post-ASCT consolidation and MT, the study sample was restricted to patients who resumed contact within the FH network within 60 days following ASCT. Patients were excluded if they received treatment within the context of a clinical trial or had a second transplant within 180 days of their initial ASCT. Patients were classified as receiving MT if (during the 180-day post-transplant period) they initiated treatment with an NCCN-recommended MT regimen or continued to receive a subset of the antimyeloma agents used as induction regimen following ASCT and consolidation (if any). Key measures included baseline demographic and clinical characteristics, antimyeloma treatments (frontline induction, consolidation, and MT, if any), and clinical outcomes (time to next myeloma treatment [TTNT] and overall survival [OS]). Treatment duration and clinical outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimators and Cox regression to account for right-censoring. For TTNT and OS, follow-up began on the earlier of the ASCT date + 90 days or start of MT and continued through the dataset cut-off date (May 30, 2020) or loss to follow-up; TTNT and OS were estimated for patients receiving lenalidomide maintenance [R-MT], bortezomib maintenance [V-MT], or no MT, but was not estimated for other MT regimens due to sample size considerations. Results: 528 NDMM patients (median age 61 years, interquartile range [IQR]: 55, 68; 45.3% female) underwent ASCT and met study inclusion criteria. The most common induction regimens were bortezomib-lenalidomide-dexamethasone (VRd; 60.0%), lenalidomide-dexamethasone (Rd; 16.3%), and cyclophosphamide-bortezomib-dexamethasone (CyBorD; 10.2%). Following ASCT, 7.2% of patients received consolidation therapy and 74.2% received MT (lenalidomide monotherapy [R-MT]: 58.7%; bortezomib monotherapy [V-MT]: 7.6%; other MT: 7.8%). Median duration of MT was 18.0 months (IQR: 8.7, 29.1), and was similar for R-MT and V-MT (median 18.9 and 18.6 months, respectively). MT use increased from 69.3% to 79.0% from 2011-2013 to 2017-2018 (P=0.04); in addition, patients were more likely to have received VRd as induction across different MT (Table 1). R-MT and V-MT were both associated with longer TTNT relative to no MT (unadjusted hazard ratios [HRs]: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.22, 0.38] and 0.39 [95% CI: 0.25, 0.61], respectively) (Figure 1A). Improvements in OS were marginally significant with R-MT (HR: 0.58 [95% CI: 0.33, 1.00]) and nonsignificant with V-MT (HR: 0.86 [95% CI: 0.35, 2.11]) relative to no MT (Figure 1B); however, the OS estimates are characterized by low precision due to the relatively small number of events observed. Limitations included lack of documentation of reasons for treatment in the FH database, and use of consolidation and MT were inferred from observed treatment patterns; therefore, misclassification of MT was possible. Conclusions: This analysis demonstrates that MT use following ASCT has increased in routine clinical practice in the US since 2011-2013, with R-MT being the most common regimen followed by V-MT. However, a substantial proportion of patients did not receive MT. MT use in real-world settings was associated with longer TTNT and a trend toward longer OS. Exploration of additional maintenance regimens to improve clinical outcomes is warranted in this patient population. Disclosures Ammann: Janssen Scientific Affairs: Current Employment, Current equity holder in publicly-traded company. Lam:Janssen: Current Employment. Tang:Janssen: Current Employment. Kampfenkel:Janssen: Current Employment. Sharma:Mu Sigma: Current Employment; Janssen: Other: Contractor. Lee:Janssen: Current Employment. Kaila:Janssen Scientific Affairs: Current Employment. Fu:Janssen: Current Employment. Gray:Janssen: Current Employment. He:Janssen: Current Employment.

Thrombotic Complications in a Canadian Population of Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19

IntroductionCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), a virus strain that appeared in Wuhan China in December 2019, that has since spread to become pandemic. An increased risk of venous and arterial thromboembolism has been consistently reported in critically ill patients with COVID-19 in several countries. The mechanism is thought to be multifactorial, largely mediated by the interplay between inflammation and the coagulation system, or thromboinflammation. We aim to report the risk of thrombosis in a Canadian patient population admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with COVID-19.MethodWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of all consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU between March 1st, 2020 and May 10th, 2020 at the Jewish General Hospital (JGH) in Montreal, Canada. The JGH is a tertiary care centre in Montreal, the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, and the JGH was the first designated hospitalization centre in Montreal for COVID-19 patients. Patients were followed from date of ICU admission to the earliest of the following: objectively confirmed venous or arterial thrombosis; discharge from hospital; death; or study end date (May 24th, 2020). We determined risk of venous (pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep vein thrombosis (DVT)) and arterial (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accident, arterial limb ischemia, and mesenteric ischemia) thrombotic events.ResultsDuring the study period, a total of 90 patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 were included. The median age was 66 years (standard deviation (SD) 13.8), and 41.1% of patients were female. The median body mass index was 30 kg/m2(SD 5.1), and 64% of patients were mechanically ventilated and 10.1% received continuous renal replacement therapy. The median duration of follow-up was 17.1 days (SD 13.4). In all, 98.9% of patients were prescribed anticoagulation, among whom 78.2% were on a prophylaxis dose, 15.0% intermediate dose, and 6.9% therapeutic dose. In all, 11 (12.2%) patients developed a thrombotic complication among whom 9 patients had objectively diagnosed pulmonary embolism (PE) and 2 patients had an arterial thromboembolism. Both arterial events were cerebrovascular accidents. All PE episodes involved segmental arteries. One PE was incidental, and 3 patients had a concomitant diagnosis of DVT. Overall, death was observed in 16.7% of cohort patients and 12.2% of patients were still admitted to hospital at study end date.ConclusionIn this first Canadian study of critically ill patients with COVID-19, we found a 12.2% risk of thrombotic complications despite almost 100% use of anticoagulation primarily with standard prophylaxis dosing. This risk is considerably lower than most reported estimates to date from critical care COVID-19 cohorts in Europe, China and the United States. Our results fuel the ongoing discussion of optimal dose of anticoagulation in these patients.DisclosuresNo relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Real-World Adverse Events Associated with Tisagenlecleucel in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia and Large B-Cell Lymphoma

Introduction: Tisagenlecleucel (tisa-cel) is a chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy approved by the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of patients up to 25 years of age with B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) that is refractory or in second or later relapse, and adult patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL) after at least 2 lines of systemic therapy. Real-world data on the safety of tisa-cel are limited, particularly in the pediatric and young adult patient ALL indication. Data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) and Cellular Therapy (CT) Registry presented at the American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting in 2019 found that efficacy and safety outcomes in 105 patients treated with tisa-cel for the ALL indication (Grupp 2019) and 47 treated for the LBCL indication (Jaglowski 2019) were largely similar to the clinical trials. Because tisa-cel is the only CAR T-cell therapy currently approved for 2 distinct indications in 2 distinct populations, we sought to further characterize the real-world adverse event (AE) profile of tisa-cel in each indication. In this large-scale analysis, we utilized the FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) database to assess tisa-cel-related AEs in both the ALL and LBCL indications. Methods: The FAERS database contains de-identified reports of product-related AEs, coded using the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) and classified as serious or non-serious. The database was queried for cases involving tisa-cel (and its trade name) in patients up to 25 years of age for the ALL indication, from the FDA approval date (August 30, 2017) through March 31, 2020; and in patients age ≥18 years for the LBCL indication, from the FDA approval date (May 1, 2018) through March 31, 2020. Cases were excluded if the age of the patient was unknown, or if the case was reported outside the US. Patient characteristics and AEs were summarized using descriptive statistics; comparisons of the proportion of AEs by indication were made using the Chi-square test with statistical significance determined at a two-sided α=0.05. Results: A total of 687 cases were retrieved (428 pediatric or young adult ALL, 259 adult LBCL); 94% of the cases were classified as serious. The median age among ALL cases was 13 years (range 0.5-25 years) and the median age among LBCL cases was 65 years (range 18-89 years) (Table). For both indications, cytokine release syndrome (CRS) was the most commonly reported reaction term (56.5% of ALL cases and 53.7% of LBCL cases). Some clinical features of CRS, including pyrexia, hypotension, and tachycardia, were reported more frequently among ALL cases compared with LBCL cases (pyrexia 51% vs. 41%; hypotension 25% vs. 16%; and tachycardia 9% vs. 5%, for ALL versus LBLC cases, respectively). A greater proportion of ALL cases reported immune effector cell-associated neurotoxicity syndrome (ICANS), including headache and seizure (11% and 3% respectively, vs. 3% and <1% in LBCL cases). Hypogammaglobulinemia and infections were also reported in ALL cases more often than in LBCL cases. Out of specification test results with tisa-cel were reported in a greater proportion of LBCL cases (1.6% of ALL cases vs. 7.3% of LBCL cases). Conclusion: In this, the largest real-world analysis of AEs associated with tisa-cel to date, we found statistically significant differences in AE patterns between ALL and LBCL. A greater proportion of cases under the ALL indication reported ICANS, infections, and some CRS clinical features, including pyrexia, hypotension, and tachycardia. Out of specification test results showed trends similar to those reported from the CIBMTR CT Registry, where a higher proportion of LBCL patients had cell viability <80% compared to ALL patients. These differences in reported AEs based on the indication can complement clinical trial data and can assist clinicians in appropriate prevention and mitigation efforts when using tisa-cell. Disclosures Zettler: Cardinal Health: Current Employment. Feinberg:Cardinal Health: Current Employment. Balanean:Cardinal Health: Current Employment. Gajra:Cardinal Health: Current Employment.

Better quality of life and less caregiver strain in young-onset Parkinson\u2019s disease: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

BackgroundParkinson’s disease (PD) is typically considered as a disease of the elderly. However, there is a sizeable subgroup of patients where PD starts at a younger age, known as young-onset PD (YOPD). We evaluated the differences in quality of life and caregiver strain between YOPD and later onset PD (LOPD) patients in a large cohort.MethodsIn collaboration with the Parkinson Foundation Quality Improvement Initiative (PF-QII), we conducted a retrospective three-year analysis on 962 PD patients of the QII database (starting date May 2016). Of these, 272 patients had YOPD, and 690 had LOPD. The Parkinson’s Disease Questionnaire-39 (PDQ-39) total score served as primary outcome measure. Furthermore, we analysed group differences in modified caregiver strain index (MCSI) total score, three cognition functions, and number of falls. A regression analysis adjusting for covariates was used to assess the association of age at onset with PDQ-39 and MCSI.ResultsPDQ scores were better in YOPD patients, MCSI scores on social constraint were lower in YOPD patients, but scores on financial constraint were higher in this group. After adjusting for covariates, YOPD patients had better quality of life and less caregiver strain at all follow-up moments, but not at baseline. Decline over time for all outcomes was lower in the YOPD group compared to the LOPD group. Cognitive functioning and number of falls progressed slower in the YOPD group compared to the LOPD group.ConclusionCompared to LOPD patients, YOPD patients had a better quality of life, less caregiver strain, fewer falls and better cognitive functioning after their first follow-up visit, and also a slower decline over time.

PM10-bound arsenic emissions from the artistic glass industry in Murano (Venice, Italy) before and after the enforcement of REACH authorisation

The island of Murano (Venice, Italy) is famous worldwide for its artistic glass production. Diarsenic trioxide was a main ingredient of the raw glass mixture until 2015, when the authorisation process of European REACH Regulation (Registration Evaluation Authorisation of Chemicals) entered into force, effectively forbidding the use of arsenic. A total of 3077 PM10 samples were collected across the Venice area in 2013–2017. This period included the REACH Sunset Date (May 2015). High arsenic concentrations were recorded in Murano before the Sunset Date (average 383 ng/m3), representing a serious concern for public health. Other sites in Venice complied with the EU target value. In 2013, concentrations were 36-folds higher than model estimation computed over the maximum-allowed emission scenario. Polar plot analysis indicated Murano as the major source of arsenic contamination. The concentration significantly dropped after the REACH implementation, thus meeting the European target values. However, high peaks of arsenic were still detected; inspections on raw and finished glass materials confirmed that some factories were still using arsenic. Results reported serious airborne arsenic pollution in Murano before the REACH implementation. This work represents an interesting case study on the effectiveness of the European REACH process.

Identifying a nasal gene expression signature associated with hyperinflation and treatment response in severe COPD

Hyperinflation contributes to dyspnea intensity in COPD. Little is known about the molecular mechanisms underlying hyperinflation and how inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) affect this important aspect of COPD pathophysiology. To investigate the effect of ICS/long-acting β2-agonist (LABA) treatment on both lung function measures of hyperinflation, and the nasal epithelial gene-expression profile in severe COPD. 117 patients were screened and 60 COPD patients entered a 1-month run-in period on low-dose ICS/LABA budesonide/formoterol (BUD/F) 200/6 one inhalation b.i.d. Patients were then randomly assigned to 3-month treatment with either a high dose BDP/F 100/6 two inhalations b.i.d. (n = 31) or BUD/F 200/6 two inhalations b.i.d. (n = 29). Lung function measurements and nasal epithelial gene-expression were assessed before and after 3-month treatment and validated in independent datasets. After 3-month ICS/LABA treatment, residual volume (RV)/total lung capacity (TLC)% predicted was reduced compared to baseline (p < 0.05). We identified a nasal gene-expression signature at screening that associated with higher RV/TLC% predicted values. This signature, decreased by ICS/LABA treatment was enriched for genes associated with increased p53 mediated apoptosis was replicated in bronchial biopsies of COPD patients. Finally, this signature was increased in COPD patients compared to controls in nasal, bronchial and small airways brushings. Short-term ICS/LABA treatment improves RV/TLC% predicted in severe COPD. Furthermore, it decreases the expression of genes involved in the signal transduction by the p53 class mediator, which is a replicable COPD gene expression signature in the upper and lower airways.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov registration number NCT01351792 (registration date May 11, 2011), ClinicalTrials.gov registration number NCT00848406 (registration date February 20, 2009), ClinicalTrials.gov registration number NCT00158847 (registration date September 12, 2005).

Assessing the Impact of Neighborhood Socioeconomic Characteristics on COVID-19 Prevalence Across Seven States in the United States.

Introduction: The spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) across the United States has highlighted the long-standing nationwide health inequalities with socioeconomically challenged communities experiencing a higher burden of the disease. We assessed the impact of neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics on the COVID-19 prevalence across seven selected states (i.e., Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia).Methods: We obtained cumulative COVID-19 cases reported at the neighborhood aggregation level by Departments of Health in selected states on two dates (May 3rd, 2020, and May 30th, 2020) and assessed the correlation between the COVID-19 prevalence and neighborhood characteristics. We developed Area Deprivation Index (ADI), a composite measure to rank neighborhoods by their socioeconomic characteristics, using the 2018 US Census American Community Survey. The higher ADI rank represented more disadvantaged neighborhoods.Results: After controlling for age, gender, and the square mileage of each community we identified Zip-codes with higher ADI (more disadvantaged neighborhoods) in Illinois and Maryland had higher COVID-19 prevalence comparing to zip-codes across the country and in the same state with lower ADI (less disadvantaged neighborhoods) using data on May 3rd. We detected the same pattern across all states except for Florida and Virginia using data on May 30th, 2020.Conclusion: Our study provides evidence that not all Americans are at equal risk for COVID-19. Socioeconomic characteristics of communities appear to be associated with their COVID-19 susceptibility, at least among those study states with high rates of disease.

Short-Term Impact of Staying Home on Bone Health in Patients With Osteoporosis During a State of Emergency Declaration Due to COVID-19 in Kanagawa, Japan.

BackgroundOn April 16, 2020, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency due to the spread of COVID-19 infection, leading prefectural governors to announce a stay-at-home order for 39 days until May 25, 2020. As physical inactivity is a risk factor for osteoporosis, we investigated the short-term impact of the stay-at-home order on bone health among patients with osteoporosis in our hospital in Kanagawa prefecture.MethodsThirty patients with osteoporosis with no delays in their regular medication who received care at our hospital’s osteoporosis outpatient clinic within one month after the end of the state of emergency were included. Lumbar spine and femur proximal bone mineral density (BMD) were measured at the last follow-up date (May 25 to June 30, 2020; 0M) and six (6M) and 12 months (12M) before the last follow-up using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP), Tartrate-resistant Acid Phosphatase 5b (TRACP5b), calcium and phosphorus were assessed at the same time points.ResultsSerum BAP concentrations were significantly lower at 0M than 12M (p=0.040), but were comparable between 0M and 6M (p=0.527). Serum TRACP5b was significantly lower at 6M than 12M (p=0.009), but was similar between 0M and 6M (p=1.000). Serum calcium and phosphorus did not differ among the time points (p=0.516 and p=0.358, respectively). Similarly, lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD were comparable (p=0.679 and p=0.076, respectively).ConclusionBone health in patients with osteoporosis was maintained during the short-term COVID-19 stay-at-home order among patients who experienced no delays in medication. However, larger and long-term studies are needed.

Energy partitioning and energy efficiency of two Holstein genotypes under a mixed pasture-based system during mid and late lactation

The objective was to evaluate the effect of the Holstein genotype (North American Holstein vs. New Zealand Holstein; NAHvs.NZH, respectively) in a pasture-based system on heat production (HP), energy partitioning between maintenance and production (milk and tissue) and energy efficiency during two different stages of lactation. Twenty-eight Holstein dairy cows (14 cows of each genotype) with similar calving date (May 5, 2018 ± 23 days) were managed in a pasture-based system and supplemented with one third of the predicted total dry matter intake as concentrate. Heat production, retained energy in milk and tissue, metabolizable energy intake (MEI) and the proportion of MEI retained in milk + tissue (RE/MEI) were measured at 115 and 192 ± 19 days in milk and residual HP was estimated by the difference between measured HP and predicted HP based on NRC (2001) model according to body weight, body condition score and milk production. The NAH cows were 60 ± 15 kg heavier and produced 4.7 ± 1.0 kg/d more milk with lower percentages of fat and protein than NZH cows. However, there were no differences in fat or protein yield per day between genotypes. Metabolizable energy intake, retained energy in milk and tissue, HP and RE/MEI were not different between genotypes at 115 days in milk. Nevertheless, at 192 days in milk the MEI, HP and residual HP were lower in NZH than NAH, whereas RE/MEI was not different when both genotypes were managed under a pasture-based system with one third of the consumed diet as concentrate. The capacity of NZH cows to maintain the same RE/MEI than NAH cows at 192 days in milk despite of the lower MEI, was due to a lower metabolizable energy requirement for maintenance (853 vs. 729 kJ/body weight0.75 per day for NAH and NZH, respectively). Indeed, the lower energy requirement for maintenance in NZH was associated with a lower fasting heat production since kl were not different between genotypes. Thus, NZH cows could have a lower proportion of their body as protein mass or a lower relative mass of the internal organs involved with digestive and circulatory functions. However, further investigation is necessary to understand the differences in maintenance energy requirements between the Holstein genotypes.

Effect of Preplanting Treatments and Root-Promoting Hormones on Rooting and Growth of Guava (Psidium guajava L.) Montakab El-Sabahia CV Semi-Hard Wood Cuttings in Dakahlia Governorate Egypt

Ten well established mature seedling trees (22 years old) of guava cv. Montakab El-Sabahia CV., grown at the Baramoon experimental farm, horticulture research institute Dakahlia governorate, Egypt were used in present study during two seasons 2016-2017. Half of the selected trees were sprayed with Ethephon at 600 ppm applied in February of each year. The other half was left as a control without spraying. The semi-hard wood cuttings were taken in May and July. Immediately after collection, all cuttings were soaked for 3 hours in activated charcoal (AC) 15%. The experiment was laid out in complete randomized blocks design. The total number of treatments amounted to 9 treatments. IBA at 3000, 4500, 5000 ppm, Ethephon at 600ppm, Benzoic acid at 100ppm and Citric acid at 100ppm. The more favorable results were obtained in the first collecting date (May), and among the treatments, T5 (Ethephon 600ppm + Benzoic acid 100ppm + IBA 4500ppm T5) recorded the best results in percentage of rooted cuttings 70%, number of roots per cutting 4.3, length of roots 4.32 cm, root fresh weight per cutting 3.35g and survival percentage of rooted cuttings 50%.

Congenital heart disease in the era of COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic of COVID-19 presents an unprecedented challenge to identify effective prevention and treatment. Scientific literature has exploded with many news concerning the different experiences and the first studies in the world. To date May 5 2020, if we carry out a search in pubmed with the keyword “COVID-19”, more than 9000 papers appear. While if we carry out a search with the keywords “congenital heart disease and COVID-19”, we find only 4 results. This is a viewpoint in which we summarize the most important problems that emerged with the most recent data in the literature.

A Simulation of a COVID-19 Epidemic Based on a Deterministic SEIR Model.

An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and the number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally regard the situation in the Italian Region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started on February 24, but by no means attempts to perform a rigorous case study in view of the lack of suitable data and the uncertainty of the different parameters, namely, the variation of the degree of home isolation and social distancing as a function of time, the initial number of exposed individuals and infected people, the incubation and infectious periods, and the fatality rate. First, we perform an analysis of the results of the model by varying the parameters and initial conditions (in order for the epidemic to start, there should be at least one exposed or one infectious human). Then, we consider the Lombardy case and calibrate the model with the number of dead individuals to date (May 5, 2020) and constrain the parameters on the basis of values reported in the literature. The peak occurs at day 37 (March 31) approximately, with a reproduction ratio R0 of 3 initially, 1.36 at day 22, and 0.8 after day 35, indicating different degrees of lockdown. The predicted death toll is approximately 15,600 casualties, with 2.7 million infected individuals at the end of the epidemic. The incubation period providing a better fit to the dead individuals is 4.25 days, and the infectious period is 4 days, with a fatality rate of 0.00144/day [values based on the reported (official) number of casualties]. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.57%, and it is 2.37% if twice the reported number of casualties is assumed. However, these rates depend on the initial number of exposed individuals. If approximately nine times more individuals are exposed, there are three times more infected people at the end of the epidemic and IFR = 0.47%. If we relax these constraints and use a wider range of lower and upper bounds for the incubation and infectious periods, we observe that a higher incubation period (13 vs. 4.25 days) gives the same IFR (0.6 vs. 0.57%), but nine times more exposed individuals in the first case. Other choices of the set of parameters also provide a good fit to the data, but some of the results may not be realistic. Therefore, an accurate determination of the fatality rate and characteristics of the epidemic is subject to knowledge of the precise bounds of the parameters. Besides the specific example, the analysis proposed in this work shows how isolation measures, social distancing, and knowledge of the diffusion conditions help us to understand the dynamics of the epidemic. Hence, it is important to quantify the process to verify the effectiveness of the lockdown.

EFFECT OF PLANTING DATE ON GROWING DEGREE DAYS, GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY OF SOME MAIZE HYBRIDS

Two field experiments were carried out at the Experimental Farm of Agricultural Research Center, Egypt, to investigate the effect of different sowing dates (May 15, June 1 and June 15) on the vegetative growth, flowering traits, growing degree days, yield and grain quality of some white maize hybrids (S.C 10, S.C 128, S.C 131, S.C 2031, T.W.C 321, T.W.C 324 and T.W.C 329) during 2017 and 2018 seasons. The results obtained could be summarized as follows: 1- The results indicated that early planting surpassed the other planting dates in most growth characters (number of leaves/ plant, leaf area/ plant, stem, leaves and shoot dry weight/plant), photosynthetic pigment (total chlorophyll), physiological parameters (crop growth rate, relative growth rate and net assimilation rate), flowering characters (days to tasseling, silking and maturity), yield (plant height, ear height, ear length, ear diameter, number of rows / main ear, number of grains / row, grains weight/ ear, grain yield/fed, stover and biological yields/fed and harvest index) and grain quality (oil and protein %) in both seasons. 2- There are significant differences among the tested hybrids in most characters studied. S.C 2031 hybrid was generally superior to the other hybrids in all growth characters, chlorophyll content, yield (number of ears/plant, 100-grain weight, grain weight/ear and grain yield/fed) and protein percent in grains. However, S.C 131 and S.C 128 hybrids produced generally the highest values of days to maturity, ear diameter, stover and biological yields/fed and oil percent in grains. 3- The interactions between sowing dates and maize hybrids were found to be significant for most characters under study. It could be concluded that planting S.C 2031 hybrid which the best hybrid under early planting (May 15) condition, while S.C 131 hybrid showed the best performance under mid planting (June 1) condition compared to other hybrids. However, T.W.C 321 exhibited the maximum grain yield /fed under the late planting (June 15) in comparison with other hybrids under the environmental conditions of this experiment.

Sowing Dates and Fertilizer Application on Growth and Yield of Muskmelon (Cucumis melo L.) at Ado-Ekiti

Information on some agronomic practices are required for muskmelon production as there is no record of its production in Ado-Ekiti. A field study of 3 x 2 factorial experiment of sowing dates (January, May and September) and NPK 15:15:15 fertilizer application (0 and 333 kg ha-1) was laid out in a Randomized Complete Block Design in three replicates at the Teaching and Research Farm of Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. Data collected on the number of leaves and branches, leaf area, vine length, day to flowering, 50% flowering, number of fruit, fruit size and yield were subjected to analysis of variance and treatment means separated by Duncan's Multiple Range Test at 5% probability. Dates of sowing did not significantly influence growth but muskmelon planted in May gave a higher number of leaves plant-1, leaf area and vine length. Fertilized plants produced better growth and earlier flowering than unfertilized plants. The number of fruits ha-1, average fruit weight and fruit yield ha-1 of 11606, 0.78 kg and 9.09 t ha-1 respectively were produced by fertilized plants which were significantly higher than 10036.70, 0.28 kg and 2.44 t ha-1 from unfertilized plants. Muskmelon planted in September produced a higher number of fruits and fruit yield of 12418 and 11.29 t ha-1 while muskmelon planted in May produced higher fruit weight (0.94 kg) but these did not differ significantly from other sowing dates. Planting muskmelon under the rain-fed condition with adequate fertilizer application gave better performance and is thereby recommended for muskmelon production in Ado-Ekiti.

Seasonal Population Patterns of a New Scale Pest, Acanthococcus lagerstroemiae Kuwana (Hemiptera: Sternorrhynca: Eriococcidae), of Crapemyrtles in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.1

Abstract The crapemyrtle bark scale, Acanthococcus lagerstroemiae, is an invasive scale insect pest of crapemyrtles. Crawler populations were monitored using double-sided sticky tape on established crapemyrtle trees in Tyler (TX), Huntsville (TX), Dallas (TX), College Station (TX), Shreveport (LA), and Little Rock (AR) from 2015 - 2017 to determine crawler activity and determine if degree-day models could predict the first peak in crawler activity. Difference in crawler densities on upper and lower branches of trees was also determined by using double-sided sticky tapes. The first peak in crapemyrtle bark scale crawler activity was between March 26th and May 22nd across all locations and years, with multiple subsequent peaks per season frequently found, suggesting multiple generations. Using the average date (May 2nd) to predict the first peak crawler activity resulted in the lowest variance and was subsequently considered a better predictor compared to any degree-day model. There was no apparent difference in crawler activity between upper and lower branches of crapemyrtle trees across an entire season. This study provides the first set of population dynamics data for crapemyrtle bark scale in the U.S. and will help with future bark scale management decisions. Index words:, Crapemyrtle bark scale, invasive insect, population dynamics, Lagerstroemia spp Species used in this study: Crapemyrtle bark scale (Acanthococcus lagerstroemiae Kuwana); Crapemyrtle (Lagerstroemia spp.)

Grazing exclusion altered the effect of plant root diameter on decomposition rates in a semiarid grassland ecosystem, northeastern China

AbstractRoot decomposition often decreases with increasing root diameter, but this relationship is affected by other factors, including the microclimate and land use. The mechanisms that underlie these interactions are unclear. We performed an Artemisia halodendron root decomposition litterbag experiment using fine (&lt;2 mm), medium (2–5 mm) and coarse (&gt;5 mm) roots. We used the same incubation duration (356 days) with five starting dates (May, June, July, October and September) in fenced (grazing exclusion) and grazed plots. Root samples installed in May decomposed faster than those installed in September, and roots decomposed faster in fenced plots than in grazed plots. Root decomposition was the highest for fine roots installed in any month, and medium roots decomposed faster than coarse roots with installation in all the months except May and July. Grazing exclusion and starting incubation time both interacted with root diameter. Root decomposition for a given diameter did not differ significantly between fenced and grazed plots; however, in both land uses, root decomposition decreased significantly with increasing root diameter. Microclimate, especially precipitation, differed among the starting dates, and precipitation patterns (especially in the first growing season) significantly (p &lt; .01) affected coarse root decomposition in the fenced plots. In summary, root decomposition was significantly (p &lt; .01) affected by root diameter. This effect was altered by grazing exclusion and by starting dates. These results highlight the importance of the starting date for root decomposition in a semiarid grassland, suggesting this date should be accounted for in future studies of root decomposition.

Optimizing Dryland Crop Management to Regional Climate via Simulation. Part I: U.S. Southern High Plains Cotton Production

Over semi-arid agricultural regions such as the U.S. Southern High Plains (SHP) producers of dryland crops need to know which management practices increase yields and decrease production risk. Here, a modelling approach is used to explore management options (MO) that increase dryland cotton yields and estimate those practice’s yield risk effects under current SHP climate conditions. To simulate current dryland yield variability, dense distributions of lint yield outcomes were generated using the CROPGRO-Cotton crop model driven by weather inputs from 21 SHP weather stations during 2005-2016. Management effects were explored by repeating simulations over 32 MOs defined by 4 planting dates, 4 planting densities, and applying or not applying nitrogen. Both earlier planting date and decreased plant density increased median simulated yields, with earlier planting having the greatest positive yield effects. The MO that produced the highest median lint yields planted on the earliest planting date (May 15), at the lowest density (3 plants m-1), and applied no nitrogen. Recent SHP field studies generally confirm the earlier planting date effect, but suggest insignificant yield effects for different seeding rates. Even so, negligible yield effects and lower input costs favor lower seeding densities from a profit standpoint. These crop simulations demonstrate a modelling-based method for climate-related agricultural risk management, and suggest mid-May planting dates and low plant densities as part of management practices that increase yields and profits in dryland SHP cotton production.

Bank of America Stock Price Research

The stock price is always an interesting topic. On the one hand, from intuition, the stock price of bank is relatively stable since bank usually does not take risk behavior. From 2007 to 2014, the price of stock of Bank of American is relatively stable by checking the RRV (relative realized volatility). There is only one day has relatively high RRVs during 2007 to 2014. The date May 6th 2010, which called crash day, is a special day that needs to analyze separately. On the other hand, to find the pattern of frequency of trading, there are different sample sizes tested and compared with Poisson distribution. The result is that we can use Poisson distribution to predict probability of no arrival trade when second gap is relatively small. In addition, when plotting the daily 100 seconds accumulated RV (realized volatility) and daily average RV, there was found strong linear relationship between these two variables. In the end, using the Heston model to verify if there exist linear relationship between daily average and mean reversion rate. Then comparing trend of alpha with weekly VIX from Yahoo Finance. When using 5 days as a period to calculate the daily average RV and mean reversion rate, the significance of linear relationship is stronger. It proved the statistic intuition that larger sample size tends to decrease the volatility. The overall trend of VIX from Yahoo Finance is similar to the shape of five-day period alpha.