Data Revisions Research Articles

Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modeling? An empirical investigation

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical performance of the standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in its usual form with full-information rational expectations and compare it with versions assuming inattentiveness- namely sticky information and imperfect information data revision. Using a Bayesian estimation approach on US quarterly data (both real-time and survey) from 1969 to 2015, we find that the model with sticky information fits best and is the only one that can generate the delayed responses observed in the data. The imperfect information data revision model is improved fits better when survey data is used in place of real-time data, suggesting that it contains extra information. • The paper considers the full-information rational expectations with two other forms of inattentive expectations, namely sticky information and imperfect information data revision. • The paper extends empirical evidence using both real-time and survey data to verify which model with the inattentive feature best replicates actual outcomes. • This is the first empirical analysis to compare models with and without expectations inattentiveness. • The New Keynesian DSGE model with an inattentive feature is a better fit with the real-time data using Bayesian estimation. • The imperfect information data revision model performs better when we substitute the real-time data with the survey data.

Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty

SummaryMacroeconomic data are subject to data revisions. Yet, the usual way of generating real‐time density forecasts from Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models makes no allowance for data uncertainty from future data revisions. We develop methods of allowing for data uncertainty when forecasting with BVAR models with stochastic volatility. First, the BVAR forecasting model is estimated on real‐time vintages. Second, the BVAR model is jointly estimated with a model of data revisions such that forecasts are conditioned on estimates of the ‘true’ values. We find that this second method generally improves upon conventional practice for density forecasting, especially for the United States.

The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time

Most research on monetary policy assumes availability of information regarding the current state of economy, at the time of the policy decision. A key challenge for policy-makers is to find indicators that give a clear and precise signal of the state of the economy in real time—that is, when policy decisions are actually taken. One of the indicators used to asses the economic condition is the output gap; and the estimates of output gap from real time data misrepresents the true state of economy. So the policy decisions taken on the basis of real time noisy data are proved wrong when true data become available. Within this context we find evidence of wrong estimates of output gap in real time data. This is done by comparing estimates of output gap based on real time data with that in the revised data. The quasi real time data are also constructed such that the difference between estimates of output gap from real time data and that from quasi real time data reflects data revision and the difference between estimates of output gap from final data and that from quasi real time data portray other revisions including end sample bias. Moreover, output gap is estimated with the help of five methods namely the linear trend method, quadratic trend method, Hordrick-Prescott (HP) filter, production function method, and structural vector autoregressive method. Results indicate that the estimates of output gap in real time data are different from what have been found in final data but other revisions, compared to data revisions, are found more significant. Moreover, the output gap measured using all the methods, except the linear trend method, appropriately portray the state of economy in the historical context. It is also found that recessions can be better predicted by real time data instead of revised data, and final data show more intensity of recession compared with what has been shown in real time data. JEL Classification: E320 Keywords: Data Uncertainty, Measurement Uncertainty, Output Gap, Business Cycle, Economic Activity

Pengembangan Multimedia Interaktif Berbasis Adobe Flash Pada Mata Pelajaran Bimbingan TIK Kelas VIII SMP

The development of interactive multimedia is carried out as an effort to solve student learning problems, where the limited number of hours of lessons at school, practical material, the risk of students being left behind is greater, causing disturbances in the classroom such as students often making noise and sometimes disturbing their friends. This is also caused by the limited existing learning media, the lack of teacher variation utilizing educational media, both conventional and technology-based media. This study uses the Research and Development (RnD) research method, using the Borg and Gall development model. The development procedure in this study is procedural and simplified according to the needs of the researcher, namely (1) data collection, (2) product design, (3) product development, (4) validation and revision, (5) product trial, (6) product end. Product validity was carried out by 3 people, namely 2 media validators and 1 material validator, while the number of research subjects was 24 students of SMP Negeri 1 Ampek Angkek. The data collection instrument is in the form of a questionnaire, assessment formats and test questions. Data were analyzed descriptively qualitatively and quantitatively. Based on the results of the feasibility assessment of the media validator and material validator, it can be concluded that the results of the assessment by two media experts are categorized as "Very Valid" for use with the number of assessments from validator I getting an average of 4.96 and validator II an average of 5.00. While the results of the material expert's assessment were categorized as "Very Valid" with an average of 4.44. The results of the interactive multimedia practicality test are in the "Practical" category with an average rating of 4.37. The results of the effectiveness test show that t_count > from t_table so that it shows a significantly higher difference between pretest and posttest. Based on the results of the validity test, practicality test and effectiveness test, it can be stated that this interactive multimedia based on Adobe Flash CS6 is suitable for use in learning.

The personal saving rate: Data revisions and forecasts

Revisions to the U.S. personal saving rate are very large and may be predictable. We decompose the revisions of the personal saving rate into those caused by revisions to income and those caused by revisions to household outlays. We use our findings to explore the forecastability of future revisions of the personal saving rate. • Revisions to the U.S. personal saving rate are large and usually positive. • Revisions to both outlays and income lead to revisions of the personal saving rate. • Upward income revisions are the biggest driver of personal saving rate revisions. • The average upward revision to the personal saving rate is predictable.

Nowcasting Japan's GDP.

This paper backtests a nowcast of Japan’s real GDP growth. It has three contributions: (i) use of genuine real-time data, (ii) implementation of a new method for the revision analysis that relates the revision of the nowcast to not only new observations but also data revisions, and (iii) a benchmarking of the nowcast to a market consensus forecast at monthly forecasting horizons. Our nowcast’s forecast accuracy is comparable to that of the consensus at most, but not all, monthly horizons. Our revision analysis of the March 2011 earthquake finds the nowcast reacting to a steep post-quake decline in car production. In contrast, the consensus hardly budged, most likely because the decline was correctly viewed as temporary. The onset of COVID-19 triggers the consensus to take a precipitous descent. The nowcast, despite timely red flags from “soft” (i.e., survey-based) indicators, does not respond immediately in full, because it took a month or more for “hard” (i.e., non-survey-based) indicators to register sharply reduced economic activities.

‘Arm’s length’ phraseology?

Abstract In the last decades, the study of phraseology within general and specialized lexicographic resources has been of interest to scholars. However, phraseology has not been studied in language for specific purposes (LSP) as much as in language for general purposes (LGP). Therefore, this study (i) offers an overview of the definitions regarding LSP phraseology, (ii) provides a series of linguistic analyses of specialized phraseological units (SPUs) extracted from a specialized bilingual dictionary, and (iii) draws a comparative line between LGP and LSP phraseology. To do so, 11,086 entries were extracted to build the analysis database. This study provides 1,054 morphosyntactic and 4,369 semantic patterns, a definition and a taxonomy of SPUs based on the data analysis and revision of LGP phraseology notions, and a hybrid lexicographic indexation method for SPUs. The contributions of this paper answer the question ‘what is a SPU?’; while highlighting similarities and differences with LGP phraseology.

Vonoprazan-associated nephrotoxicity: extensive real-world evidence from spontaneous adverse drug reaction reports

Vonoprazan-associated nephrotoxicity: extensive real-world evidence from spontaneous adverse drug reaction reports

Investigation on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan: Number of Infections Outside Hospitals and the Reproduction Number.

COVID-19 is erupting globally, and Wuhan successfully controlled it within a month. Infections arose from infectious persons outside hospitals. After data revision, data-based and model-based analyses were implemented, and the conclusions are as follows. The incubation period of most infected people may be 6-7 days. The number of infectious persons outside hospitals in Wuhan on January 20, 2020 was about 10000 and reached more than 20000 on the day of Lockdown; it exceeded 72000 on February 4. Both data-based and model-based analyses gave out the evolution of the reproduction number, which was over 2.5 in early January, went down to 1.62 in late January and 1.20 in early February, with a sudden drop to less than 0.5 due to the strict Stay-at-home management after February 11. Strategies of Stay-at-home, Safe-protective measures, and Ark hospitals were the main contributions to control COVID-19 in Wuhan. In Wuhan, 2 inflection points of COVID-19, exactly correspond to February 5 and February 15, the 2 days when Ark hospitals were introduced, and the complete implementation of Stay-at-home. Based on the expression of the reproduction number, group immunity is also discussed. It shows that only when the group immunization rate is over 75% can COVID-19 be under control; group immunity would be full infection and the total deaths will be 220000 for a city as big as Wuhan. Sensitivity analysis suggests that 30% of people staying at home in combination with better behavior changes, such as social-distancing and frequent handwashing, can effectively contain COVID-19. However, only when this proportion is over 60% can the controlled effect and efficiency like Wuhan be obtained.

PENGEMBANGAN VIDEO TUTORIAL PEMBUATAN SELAI PEPAYA PADA SUBMATERI PERAN TUMBUHAN DI BIDANG EKONOMI

The delivery of material in the learning process theoretically, without concrete example arounds students has not been able to increase awareness of a plant care product that will have a higher selling value. The purpose of this study is to develop a tutorial video that can describe the role of plants in the economic field and the procedure for making papaya jam as a factual example and its testing in organoleptic tests. The tutorial video is designed according to the potential and problems, data collection, product design, validation and revision which are five of the 10 stages in the Research and Development (R&D) method. Design validation consist of instrument and media validation conducted by five validators. The instrument validation includes the format, content, language evaluated by two biology education lecturers. Meanwhile, media validation consist of 11 aspects with 16 criteria conducted by to lecturers and three high school teachers using a Likert scale. Validity is calculated by the Lawshe method. The validation result show that the avarage CVR in all aspects options 1.00 which is considered valid. However, this tutorial video needs to be tested in the process of learning on the role of plants in the economy.

Development of Holland Based Career Module as a Career Guidance and Counseling Design for High School Students

This study aims to create a Holland-based career guidance and counseling module as a guide in designing career guidance and counseling for high school students in Gorontalo Province. This study uses research and development methods consisting of several steps: defining potentials and problems, data collection, product design, design validation, revision, and product testing. Referring to qualitative research, the data obtained came from expert validation questionnaires and product test questionnaires. This development study eventually created a Holland-based career guidance and counseling module. This module can be used by Guidance and counseling teachers as a career design guide because it has passed the expert validation test from guidance and counseling experts, language experts, and learning media design experts.

Antibody responses to SARS‐CoV‐2 vaccination in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia and high risk MDS on active anti‐cancer therapies

Encouraging seroconversion rates to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients have been reported in large cohort studies1-4; however, the majority of these patients were not receiving active systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) and its impact on vaccine responses remains to be fully elucidated. Mori et al.5 report seroconversion rates of 94.7 and 100% respectively in Japanese patients with AML and MDS after two doses of mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, of which 39% received SACT. We report SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses following vaccination in a UK cohort of AML and HR-MDS patients all receiving, or having recently completed SACT, and stratified by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Demographics, SACT history and laboratory parameters were collected from the electronic health records of patients following two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1nCoV-19) between December 2020 and July 2021. Serological testing was performed using Roche Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 enzyme immunoassays. A total of 39 patients (85% AML, 15% HR-MDS, median age 63 [21–76]), underwent serological testing after receiving two doses of vaccine (Table 1). All were tested for anti-S antibodies after two doses (median 40 days post-dose) and 59% after the first dose (median 39 days). Thirty-three patients (85%) underwent testing for anti-N antibodies, and seven (21% of those tested) had previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Eleven patients (28%) received intensive chemotherapy, 51% venetoclax-combination therapy (with azacitidine, low-dose cytarabine or gilteritinib) and 21% non-intensive azacitidine. Seropositivity rates and antibody titres increased with consecutive vaccine doses, from 74% in all patients (75% AML, 67% MDS) to 95% (94% AML, 100% MDS), with a median anti-S titre of 5.90 U/ml (IQR 0.58–56.7) after dose one, rising to 333 U/ml (IQR 86.8–1971) post dose two. Significantly higher titres were detected after dose two in AML patients, but not in MDS, though numbers are small (Figure 1B). We report similar seroconversion rates following two doses as seen by Mori et al. (Figure 1A, Table 1), despite all our patients receiving SACT compared to 39% of their cohort; however, we found no difference in anti-S titres between AML and HR-MDS patients receiving SACT after two vaccine doses (333 iu/ml [IQR 105.9–1896] vs. 495.9 iu/ml [IQR 82.15–2320], p = 0.99). These patterns persisted in patients with no prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and negative anti-N serology (Figures 1C,D and S1, Table 1), although seroconversion rates and median anti-S titres were somewhat reduced. Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with higher titres after two vaccinations (median 2500 U/ml [IQR 141–2500]), consistent with higher post-vaccination antibody titres in healthy individuals with prior natural infection.6, 7 This highlights the importance of measuring antibody titres, as opposed to seropositivity alone, and considering prior SARS-CoV-2 infection to delineate vaccine responses. Mori et al. reported lower antibody titres after two doses in those AML/MDS patients receiving active SACT as treatment or maintenance therapy (the majority received HMA) compared to those receiving non-chemotherapeutic treatments or completed treatment.5 We observed that no significant difference in seropositivity or anti-S titres was seen in AML patients receiving intensive (28%) compared to non-intensive chemotherapy (21%); however, anti-S titres were significantly reduced in venetoclax-based regimens (55% AML patients, 33% HR-MDS, median 158.5 U/ml [IQR 34.85–873], p = 0.04), independent of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (Figure 1E,F). Reduced serological responses in patients receiving venetoclax have been previously reported in mature B cell neoplasms and myeloma, but not in AML or MDS.3, 8, 9 Further studies to define the impact of SACT regimens on the magnitude/duration of humoral and T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination will have clear implications for this vulnerable group and should be priority questions for larger studies. All patients n = 39 AML n = 33 HR-MDS n = 6 Negative baseline n = 26 Positive baseline n = 7 Jenny O'Nions conceived of the study, performed data collection, data analysis, literature search, and manuscript writing and revision; Wei Yee Chan data collection, data analysis, manuscript writing, and revision; Catherine Zhu performed data collection, manuscript review and revision; Elspeth M. Payne conceived of study, manuscript review and revision; Emilie Sanchez data collection, manuscript review and revision; Adele K. Fielding, Asim Khwaja, Rajeev Gupta, manuscript review and revision. We are extremely grateful to all the patients who participated in this study and to the NHS staff that provided their clinical care. E. M. P. is supported by a CRUK Advanced Clinician Scientist Fellowship (grant no. A24873). RG acknowledges funding from Cure Cancer@ UCL. All authors declare no conflicts of interest. Figure S1 Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

Data revisions and the effects of monetary policy volatility

I quantify the role of data revisions in estimating the impact of monetary policy-induced volatility on business cycle fluctuations. To that end, I construct real-time and final data-based measures of policy volatility. The results suggest that the effects of the two measures are qualitatively similar. However, the impact of real-data volatility on output is lower than that of final data volatility. These findings suggest that the business cycle implications of policy-induced volatility, found in the literature, are possibly overstated.

Improved statistical consistency: The effect of data revisions on the energy use gap between China and its provinces

National energy consumption data are typically adjusted upward and provincial revision downward based on the Third Economic Census, thus substantially reducing energy statistical discrepancy between China and its provinces. Examining revision effects can facilitate better understanding whether and how the revision process eliminated the fundamental roots of the discrepancy. Through multiple index decomposition methods, this study traced the overall discrepancy to raw coal consumption by energy source, coal washing by transforming process and industrial consumption by economic sector. The reduction of the discrepancy was primarily based on improvements in the data consistency for raw coal, including the input by coal washing and industrial raw coal consumption. At provincial level, unexpected operations were detected during benchmark revisions, particularly inner-provincial inconsistency and inter-provincial incoordination. We conclude that the data discrepancy was institutionally rooted and cannot be solved by benchmark revision alone. Shifting the statistical system from a hierarchical regime to a more centralized one, which would allow greater coordination during energy data accounting and revisions, can help resolve this issue fundamentally.

Keyword coupling query of spatiotemporal data based on XML

With the increasing popularity of XML for data representations, there is a lot of interest in keyword query on XML. Many algorithms have been proposed for XML keyword queries. But the existing approaches fall short in their abilities to analyze the logical relationship between keywords of spatiotemporal data. To overcome this limitation, in this paper, we firstly propose the concept of query time series (QTS) according to the data revision degree. For the logical relationship of keywords in QTS, we study the intra-coupling logic relationship and the inter-coupling logic relationship separately. Then a calculation method of keyword similarity is proposed and the best parameter in the method is found through experiment. Finally, we compare this method with others. Experimental results show that our method is superior to previous approaches.

The Personal Saving Rate: Data Revisions and Forecasts

The Personal Saving Rate: Data Revisions and Forecasts

PENGEMBANGAN BAHAN AJAR TEMATIK BERBASIS KEARIFAN LOKAL PATI TEMA “DAERAH TEMPAT TINGGALKU” PADA SISWA KELAS IV SEKOLAH DASAR

The purpose of this study 1) To find the need for thematic teaching materials based on Pati local wisdom with the theme of “Daerah tempat Tinggalku” in grade IV elementary school students, 2) to produce prototypes of thematic teaching materials based on Pati local wisdom and 3) to describe the appropriateness of thematic teaching materials based on Pati local wisdom with theme “ Daerah Tempat Tinggalku”. The research method used by Research Development with 7 stages of research includes potential and problems, data collection, design, validation, revision, testing, and revision of the final product. The result of research based on interviews and observations is the need for a companion book that is suitable for student development and based on Pati's local wisdom. The prototype of this book contains an introduction, contents based on Pati local wisdom, and a closing. The results of the validation by content experts were 23.3 or 78% and the design experts scored 28.2 or 81%. 84% of teachers agree that the use of teaching materials and student learning outcomes increases. Based on these data, it can be concluded that the thematic teaching materials based on Pati local wisdom on the theme “Daerah tempat Tinggalku” are very suitable to be used as a companion book for students from the Government in grade IV of Elementary School.

Forecasting Facing Economic Shifts, Climate Change and Evolving Pandemics

By its emissions of greenhouse gases, economic activity is the source of climate change which affects pandemics that in turn can impact badly on economies. Across the three highly interacting disciplines in our title, time-series observations are measured at vastly different data frequencies: very low frequency at 1000-year intervals for paleoclimate, through annual, monthly to intra-daily for current climate; weekly and daily for pandemic data; annual, quarterly and monthly for economic data, and seconds or nano-seconds in finance. Nevertheless, there are important commonalities to economic, climate and pandemic time series. First, time series in all three disciplines are subject to non-stationarities from evolving stochastic trends and sudden distributional shifts, as well as data revisions and changes to data measurement systems. Next, all three have imperfect and incomplete knowledge of their data generating processes from changing human behaviour, so must search for reasonable empirical modeling approximations. Finally, all three need forecasts of likely future outcomes to plan and adapt as events unfold, albeit again over very different horizons. We consider how these features shape the formulation and selection of forecasting models to tackle their common data features yet distinct problems.

Gallic Amphorae in Rome (and Ostia) during the Middle Imperial Age: Data Revision and Reflections from the Finds at the ‘Terme Di Elagabalo’ in Rome

Starting from the unpublished amphorae discovered in the Middle Imperial contexts (dating 2nd-early 3rd centuries AD) found in the building known as the ‘Terme di Elagabalo’ in Rome, this paper analyses the presence of Gallic containers in Rome and Ostia. The finds from that site will be combined with the ones deriving from several published contexts in Rome with similar dating and compared with those discovered in Ostia (the traditional comparison for the Capital) in order to update the data about their presence in both cities during the chosen chronological period. This paper will also analyse ancient sources that mention Gallic products in order to reflect not only upon their quality, but also their purchasers and consumers, with brief considerations derived from theories in social sciences.

Development of Training Kit Basic Aerial Robotics Using RC Plane Robot for Robotics Course

RC Plane Robot and basic aerial robotics are technologies that are widely used, so training kits are needed to learn them. This study aims to: (1) Design and build, (2) Test performance and (3) Determine the feasibility level of training kit basic aerial robotics using RC plane robot. The study used the Research and Development method with the following procedures: (1) Potential and problem, (2) Data collection, (3) Design, (4) Validation, (5) Revision and (6) Trial. The object of the research is the RC Plane Robot training kit and the practicum jobsheet. The research subjects were students of the Electronic Engineering Education Study Program, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta. The results of the research are in the form of hardware and practicum jobsheets. The hardware part consists of a robot plane, a work area (Box) and a remote control. The level of feasibility of training kits by material experts gets a percentage of 91%. By media experts get a percentage of 89.5%. By respondents (students) get a percentage of 86%. Based on these results, the training kit basic aerial robotics using RC plane robot is very feasible to be applied to the Robotics course.