Gross Domestic Product Data Research Articles

The impact of R&D on GDP study based on grey delay Lotka-Volterra model

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to elevate the accuracy when predicting the gross domestic product (GDP) on research and development (R&D) and to develop the grey delay Lotka-Volterra model. Design/methodology/approach – Considering the lag effects between input in R&D and output in GDP, this paper estimated the delay value via grey delay relation analysis. Taking the delay into original Lotka-Volterra model and combining with the thought of grey theory and grey transform, the authors proposed grey delay Lotka-Volterra model, estimated the parameter of model and gave the discrete time analytic expression. Findings – Collecting the actual data of R&D and GDP in Wuhan China from 1995 until 2008, this paper figure out that the delay between R&D and GDP was 2.625 year and found the dealy time would would gradually be reduced with the economy increasing. Practical implications – Constructing the grey delay Lotka-Volterra model via above data, this paper shown that the precision was satisfactory when fitting the data of R&D and GDP. Comparing the forecasts with the actual data of GDP in Wuhan from 2009 until 2012, the error was small. Social implications – The result shows that R&D and GDP would be both growing fast in future. Wuhan will become a city full of activity. Originality/value – Considering the lag between R&D and GDP, this work estimated the delay value via a grey delay relation analysis and constructed a novel grey delay Lotka-Volterra model.

The Japanese Decline in Secondary Sex Ratio Correlates with Percentage Change in GDP/Annum

Background : Male births occur in excess of female births. The ratio of male:female births is commonly referred to as M/F and is expected to approximate 0.515. Stress has been shown to decrease M/F due to an increased rate of male spontaneous abortions. Since Japan’s economy declined after the mid-1970s, this study was carried out in order to ascertain whether there was any relationship between M/F and annual change in percentage gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan. Methods: Annual male and female live births were obtained from a World Health Organisation Mortality database. GDP data was downloaded as an Excel sheet from the website of the World Bank. Data for both variables was available for the period 1961-2009. Results: This study analysed 71878631 total live births. There was an overall and abrupt decline in M/F which commenced in 1975 (0.5149, from 0.5155 in 1974), one year after the decline in percentage annual GDP growth which fell from 8.0% to -1.22 from 1973 to 1974. M/F correlated with percentage annual GDP growth (r=0.4, p=0.005). Conclusion: M/F is increasing overall in Asia, but decreasing in Japan, as is the trend in developing countries. This country exhibits a rise in GDP change along with M/F in boom years, followed by a progressive fall in both values, which occurs almost in parallel, especially after 1980. To the author’s knowledge, this is the first time that M/F has been linked with percentage annual GDP.

Assessment of Green Total Factor Productivity Impact on Sustainable Indonesia Productivity Growth

This paper explores the concept of Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) for low carbon economic development towards sustainable development in Indonesia. Evaluating the effect of CO2 intensity to the total factor productivity (TFP) can be usedin government policy intervention to enhance productivity growth and to reduce CO2 emissions. This study made an analysis on time series data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), labor productivity, capital stock and CO2 intensity emissions. The data, from 1992 until 2012, were assessed using growth accounting method (GAM). TFP growth without CO2 (TFP-CO2G) in general gave the smallest contribution to the economic growth from 1976 until 2011 at -0.62%. The average TFP-CO2G infivegrowth that internalized CO2 emission (TFP+CO2G) from 1976 until 2010 reached -1.83% in average per year. The average of TFP+CO2G in the five phases of Indonesia economic development reached the highest level on 1.20% andthe lowest level on -4.81%. In the same period of time, the growth of CO2 mission reached 6.62% in average per year. The highest average growth of CO2 emission reached 11.4% and the lowest reached 4.04%.In conclusion, this paper states that GTFP wouldimproveproductivity growth and emission reduction. This can be a concept of national policy to enhance sustainable economy development.

An analysis of the relationship of inflation and unemployment to the gross domestic product (gdp) in zimbabwe

The time series yearly data for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and unemployment from 1980 to 2012 was used in the study. First difference of the logged data became stationary as suggested by the time series plots. Johansen Maximum Likelihood Cointegration test indicated a long-run relationship among the variables. Granger Causality tests suggested unidirectional causality between inflation and GDP, implying that GDP is Granger caused by inflation in Zimbabwe. Another unidirectional causality was noted between unemployment and inflation. The causality between unemployment and inflation imply that unemployment do affect GDP indirectly since unemployment influences inflation which in turn positively affect GDP.

Forecasting the Relative Direction of Economic Growth by Using the Purchasing Managers` Index*

This paper aims to predict the relative direction of the growth rate of Turkish real gross domestic product (GDP) by using the purchasing managers` index (PMI) data and to quantify the predictive performances of three alternative models: naive, constant and variable models. Naive model employs only the GDP data while the other two use both GDP and PMI data. The median growth rate is chosen as the main reference rate. In this case, the success rate of the forecasts by the variable (constant) model is 17.2 (3.4) percentage points higher than that of the naive model. The calculations for 8 other reference rates also lead to similar findings. The variable model has a higher success rate than the constant model at 4 out of 9 reference rates, while the constant model outpaces the variable model at only 2 reference rates. Moreover, the time-invariant PMI threshold that corresponds to a stagnant economic activity is found to be 47.5, any PMI reading above (below) which implies an expansion (a contraction)

General procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector of developing countries with limited data based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN

Energy-environmental planning for transportation sector requires extensive data for energy carriers types, production, and consumption as well as vehicle technologies. However, in developing countries, where private transportation sector is growing at an enormous rate and energy-environmental planning is needed the most, the required relevant data are usually limited or unavailable. The objective of this study is to develop a general procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector in developing countries to manage GC (gasoline consumption) for LDVs (light duty vehicle), based on historical data for POP (population) and GDP (gross domestic product). The general procedure is applied to Iran, as a developing country, and several scenarios are examined. For planning purposes up to 2025, based on historical data, the Grey model is used for the needed POP and GDP forecasts, and four ANNs (artificial neural network) are designed and used for forecasts of VP (vehicle population), TV (traffic volume), VKT (average private vehicles kilometers traveled/capita), and GC up to 2025. The scenarios examined include (a) S-BAU (business as usual), (b) S-GDP (GDP growth), (c) S-PUB (public transportation improvement), and (d) S-EV (utilization of electric vehicle). Energy models LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN are employed for annual and hourly analyses, respectively. The results show that S-PUB is the most effective scenario for reduction in GC, environmental emissions, and resource depletion.

Economic Growth and Internet Usage Impact on Publication Productivity among ASEAN’s and World’s Best Universities

Measuring the number of papers which are published each year, publication productivity is the factor which shows the reputation of universities and countries. However, the effect of growing economy and using internet on the publication productivity in Asian countries has not been discovered yet. The present research is going to figure out the publication productivity among the elite universities in Asian countries and also ten top universities around the world in the last twenty years (from 1993 to 2012). Furthermore, the current research is aimed to study the relationship among publication, gross domestic product (GDP) and internet usage. It is worth to mention that the publication of the top Ten Malaysian Universities was regarded for the similar period of time. To get the exact numbers of documents like papers, conference articles, review papers and letters which are published by the universities in the last twenty years, the writer of the same paper used the Science Direct database. Moreover, the data for GDP and the number of internet usage was collected through the World Bank database (World Data Bank).To compare all kinds of publications,one-way ANOVAwas used and to investigate the impact of economic growth and internet usageon publication productivity, multiple regression analysis was applied.The results showed that therate of publication growth was 1.9, 20.9, and 65.5 % in top universities in the world, ASEAN countries and Malaysia, respectively.The results also showed thatthere was a positive and significant correlationbetween GDP and the number of internet users with the number of publications in ASEAN and Malaysian universities. Internet usagehad much more influence in comparison withthe GDP in predicting the number of publicationsamong these groups except for top ten Malaysian universities from 2003 to 2012. In summary, publication trends in top ten Malaysian and ASEAN universities are promising. However, policy makers and science managersshouldspend much more percentage of their GDP on Internet facilities and research studies that their outputs lead to more rapid economic growthand internet usage.

The quality of China's GDP statistics

Since the 1998 “wind of falsification and embellishment,” Chinese official statistics on gross domestic product (GDP) have repeatedly come under scrutiny. This paper evaluates the quality of China's GDP statistics in four stages. First, it reviews past and ongoing suspicions of the quality of GDP data and examines the evidence. Second, it documents the institutional framework for data compilation and concludes on the implications for data quality. Third, it asks how the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics could possibly go about credibly falsifying GDP data without being found out. Fourth, it examines if the first- and second-digit distributions of official GDP data conform to established data regularities (Benford's Law). The findings are that the supposed evidence for GDP data falsification is not compelling, that the National Bureau of Statistics has much institutional scope for falsifying GDP data, and that certain manipulations of nominal and real data would be virtually undetectable. Official GDP data, however, exhibit few statistical anomalies (conform to Benford's Law) and the National Bureau of Statistics thus either makes no significant use of its scope to falsify data, or is aware of statistical data regularities when it falsifies data.

Relationship among Economic Growth, Internet Usage and Publication Productivity: Comparison among ASEAN and World’s Best Countries

Publication productivity, as measured by the number of papers, has been regarded as one of the main indicators of reputation of countries and institutions. Nevertheless, the relationship among research publications, economic growth and World Wide Web in ASEAN countries is still unclear. The main intention of this study was to identify publication productivity among ASEAN and the world’s top ten countries in the last 16 years (1996-2011). This study also aimed at finding the relationship among publication, gross domestic product (GDP) and internet usage. Furthermore, the publication trend in the 10 first Malaysian universities was evaluated for the same periods. Scopus database was used to find the overall documents, overall citations, citations per document and international collaboration from 1996 to 2011 for each country. The World Bank database (World Data Bank) was used to collect the data for GDP and the number of internet users. Moreover, to evaluate 10 top Malaysian universities, the number of published articles, conferences, reviews, and letters for the same periods was collected. The results of this study showed significant differences among ASEAN and top 10 countries regarding publication productivity. Moreover, a positive and significant relationship was observed between indices, GDP and internet usage for these countries. Surprisingly, international collaboration had a significant and negative relationship with economic growth. Malaysia had fewer citations per document (7.64) and international collaboration (36.9%) among ASEAN countries. In conclusion, international collaboration between academic institutes and researchers is influenced by economic growth and access to internet in the countries. Furthermore, publication trends in ASEAN countries are promising. However, policy makers and science managers should try to find different ways to increase the quality of the research publication and to raise citation per document.

People in Non-Urban Areas are Richer than those in Urban Areas? A Comment to Ghosh et al. (2010)

In environmental studies, different types of system boundaries are needed. Disaggregated GIS data are crucial because they can be flexibly converted into the target boundaries. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should be highly evaluated as a valuable GIS data. We, however, show the problem that GDP per capita in urban areas is lower than that in non-urban areas, based on the NOAA data of GDP. This is inconsistent with the fact derived from other relevant data. We discuss possible causes of the problem: continuous linear relationship between night-time lights and GDP; leakage effects of night-time lights from urban areas to their peripheral non-urban areas; excessive infrastructures in non-urban areas as compared with their economic output; and bias in the allocation of estimated GDP data in informal sectors. We would rather contribute to the potential correction of the data than criticize the data in this paper.

Comparison of methodological approaches to identify economic activity regularities in transition economy

Presented paper focuses on consideration and evaluation of methodical approaches to analyze cyclical structure character of economic activity in transition economy. As a starting point, work in time domain is applied, which is followed in frequency domain approach. Both approaches are viewed from methodical as well as application point of view and their advantage and disadvantage are discussed. Consequently, time-frequency domain approach is added and applied on real data. On the basis of obtained results recommendation is formulated. All discussed methodical approaches are also considered from the perspective of capability to evaluate behaving of business cycle in time of global economic crisis before/after year 2008. The empirical part of the paper deals with data of gross domestic product in the Czech Republic in 1996/Q1–2010/Q2.

Economic Growth, CO2 Emissions and Energy Consumption: The Case of Bangladesh

Issues on climate change have been recognized as serious challenges for regional sustainable development both at a global and local level. Given the background that most of the artificial carbon emissions are resulted from the energy consumption sector and the energy is also the key element resource for economic development, this study examines economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption relationship in Bangladesh by using cointegration test. For this purpose 1972-2011 periods taken and annual data of Gross Domestic Product (Y), Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO) and Energy Consumption (EC) are used. The obtain results from this paper indicated that energy consumption has a positive and significant impact on economic growth while carbon emission has a negative and insignificant effect, ensuring that economic growth in Bangladesh can be achieved without degrading the quality of the environment.

Investigation into the Effects of Gas Price and GDP on Freeway Traffic

It is well acknowledged that gas price negatively affects traffic volume while GDP (gross domestic product) may have the contrary effect. To gain in-depth understandings of such relationships, this paper collects monthly time series data of freeway traffic, gas price and GDP of Taiwan to examine short- and long-term causal relationships by Granger causality test and cointegration test, respectively. Results show that gas price Granger causes large-vehicle (truck and bus) and trailer traffic, but not small-vehicle traffic. However, there is no statistically significant finding on long-term equilibrium relationship neither between gas price and freeway traffic nor between GDP and freeway traffic.

Refined estimate of China's CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in spatiotemporal distributions

Abstract. Being the largest contributor to the global source of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, China's emissions need to be accurately quantified and well understood. Previous studies have usually focused on the amount of national emissions and rarely discussed their spatiotemporal distributions, which are also crucial for both carbon flux and carbon management. In this study, we calculated China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes using provincial statistics and then mapped those emissions at 0.25° resolution on a monthly basis. Several key steps have been implemented to gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions, including (1) development and application of China's CO2 emission inventories using provincial statistics; (2) separate calculations of emissions from large point sources and accurate identification of their geographical locations; (3) development of 1 km × 1 km gridded population and GDP (gross domestic product) data for China from 2000 to 2009 and application of them as dynamic spatial proxies to allocate emissions; and (4) monthly variation curves of CO2 emissions from various sectors that were developed for each province and applied to our inventory. China's total CO2 emission from fossil fuels and industrial processes has increased from 3.6 billion tons in 2000 to 8.6 billion tons in 2009, which may be off by 14–18% and is enough to skew global totals. The resulting spatiotemporal distributions of our inventories also differed greatly in several ways from those derived using a national statistics and population-based approach for the various economic development levels, industrial and energy structures, and even large point emission sources within China and each province.

“Lost Milk?”

The contribution of breastfeeding and mothers milk to the economy is invisible in economic statistics. This article demonstrates how the economic value of human milk production can be included in economic statistics such as gross domestic product (GDP) and provides estimates for Australia, the United States, and Norway. The contribution of human milk and lactation to GDP in these countries is estimated using United Nations (System of National Accounting) guidelines and conventional economic valuation approaches to measuring production in GDP. In Australia, current human milk production levels exceed $3 billion annually. The United States has the potential to produce human milk worth more than US$110 billion a year, but currently nearly two thirds of this value is lost due to premature weaning. In Norway, production valued at US$907 million annually is 60% of its potential value. The potential loss of economic value from not protecting women's lactation and milk production from competing market pressures is large. Failure to account for mothers' milk production in GDP and other economic data has important consequences for public policy. The invisibility of human milk reduces the perceived importance of programs and regulations that protect and support women to breastfeed. The value of human milk can be measured using accepted international guidelines for calculating national income and production. It is quantitatively nontrivial and should be counted in GDP.

Quantitative Analysis of Dynamic Behaviours of Rural Areas at Provincial Level Using Public Data of Gross Domestic Product

A spatial approach that incorporates three economic components and one environmental factor has been developed to evaluate the dynamic behaviours of the rural areas at a provincial level. An artificial fish swarm algorithm with variable population size (AFSAVP) is proposed for the spatial problem. A functional region affecting index θ is employed as a fitness function for the AFSAVP driven optimisation, in which a gross domestic product (GDP) based method is utilised to estimate the CO2 emission of all provinces. A simulation for the administrative provinces of China has been implemented, and the results have shown that the modelling method based on GDP data can assess the spatial dynamic behaviours and can be taken as an operational tool for the policy planners.

Impact of FDI on India's GDP: An Inter- Comparative Study Between USA, UK and Japan

Considering the growing importance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the present day well-knitted economic environment, this empirical study compares the impact of FDI inflows from Japan from those of United States of America (U.S.A.) and United Kingdom (U.K.) on India's gross domestic product (GDP). The paper, by using sample data of FDI and India's GDP from 1st April 2002 to 31st March 2011, makes use of Correlation and multiple regression for studying relationship between the variables. Moreover, t-test is being employed to test whether the results are significant or not. The results conclude that FDI from the respective countries individually do not significantly affect India's GDP.

English

This paper empirically examines the suitability of monetary union in East African community members namely, Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, on the basis of business cycle synchronization. This research considers annual GDP (gross domestic product) data from IMF (international monetary fund) for the period of 1980 to 2010. In order to extract the business cycles and trends, the study uses HP (Hodrick-Prescott) and the BP (band pass) filters. After identifying the cycles and trends of the business cycle, the study considers cross country correlation analysis and analysis of variance technique to examine whether EAC (East African community) countries are characterized by synchronized business cycles or not. The results show that four EAC countries (Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) among five countries are having similar pattern of business cycle and trend from the last ten years of the formation of the EAC. The research concludes that these countries, except Rwanda, do not differ significantly in transitory or cycle components but do differ in permanent components especially in growth trend.   Key words: Business cycle synchronization, optimum currency area, East African community, monetary union, development.

Impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on millennium development goals (MDGs): Context for diffusion and adoption of ICT innovations in East and Southern Africa

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) impact all the millennium development goals (MDGs), especially in eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. The correlation between ICTs and high economic growth has not been well researched in most African countries. The specific objectives of the research are: to assess the impact of ICTs on MDGs, to ascertain the ICT impact on economic growth, and determine the pattern for diffusion and adoption of ICT innovations in East and Southern Africa, and to recommend a development model or a framework for economic growth for these African countries. The methodology used was largely qualitative on technology capacity needs assessment that covered 6 countries, and also quantitative on gross domestic product (GDP) and Infodensity covering 18 countries in East and Southern Africa. GDP and Infodensity data was collected for 18 African countries to ascertain the link between ICTs diffusion and GDP density per country. The mean for the 18 East and Southern African countries with respect to main telephone density is 3.8%, mobile subscribers is 27.87%, and internet use is at 4.87%. Capacity needs assessment included both the human capital development and social capital aspects in order to achieve sustainable information and communication technology capacity development. Human capital development is central to capacity needs. There is a strong correlation between ICT diffusion and high economic growth, evidenced by high mobile density. The mobile phone has become a good measure of wealth for an average African. The solution to poverty and under-development in these African countries is, therefore, knowledge and economic empowerment. The recommended sustainable technology development with an African model is proposed. Key words: Information and communication technologies, millennium development goals, sustainable development, diffusion, infodensity, gross domestic product.

Empirical study on effect of industrial structure change on regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product (GDP), industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008, this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method. The results show that: 1) In the 21st century, the industrial output of three industries, namely, primary, secondary, and tertiary, and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period. The tertiary industry grew the fastest; it had the largest contribution to the GDP and meanwhile had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region. 2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced. Firstly, compared with Tianjin, Beijing, as one of the two core cities, was more rational in the industrial structure. Secondly, the surrounding eight cities, which are Shijiazhuang, Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, Langfang, Baoding, Cangzhou, Zhangjiakou, and Chengde, were all uncompetitive than the two core cities. 3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region (especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan, Baoding, Zhangjiakou, Chengde, Cangzhou, and Langfang). As a result, it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development, and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.