US Data Research Articles

Liver Transplant Costs and Activity After United Network for Organ Sharing Allocation Policy Changes

A new liver allocation policy was implemented by United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) in February 2020 with the stated intent of improving access to liver transplant (LT). There are growing concerns nationally regarding the implications this new system may have on LT costs, as well as access to a chance for LT, which have not been captured at a multicenter level. To characterize LT volume and cost changes across the US and within specific center groups and demographics after the policy implementation. This cross-sectional study collected and reviewed LT volume from multiple centers across the US and cost data with attention to 8 specific center demographics. Two separate 12-month eras were compared, before and after the new UNOS allocation policy: March 4, 2019, to March 4, 2020, and March 5, 2020, to March 5, 2021. Data analysis was performed from May to December 2022. Center volume, changes in cost. A total of 22 of 68 centers responded comparing 1948 LTs before the policy change and 1837 LTs postpolicy, resulting in a 6% volume decrease. Transplants using local donations after brain death decreased 54% (P < .001) while imported donations after brain death increased 133% (P = .003). Imported fly-outs and dry runs increased 163% (median, 19; range, 1-75, vs 50, range, 2-91; P = .009) and 33% (median, 3; range, 0-16, vs 7, range, 0-24; P = .02). Overall hospital costs increased 10.9% to a total of $46 360 176 (P = .94) for participating centers. There was a 77% fly-out cost increase postpolicy ($10 600 234; P = .03). On subanalysis, centers with decreased LT volume postpolicy observed higher overall hospital costs ($41 720 365; P = .048), and specifically, a 122% cost increase for liver imports ($6 508 480; P = .002). Transplant centers from low-income states showed a significant increase in hospital (12%) and import (94%) costs. Centers serving populations with larger proportions of racial and ethnic minority candidates and specifically Black candidates significantly increased costs by more than 90% for imported livers, fly-outs, and dry runs despite lower LT volume. Similarly, costs increased significantly (>100%) for fly-outs and dry runs in centers from worse-performing health systems. Based on this large multicenter effort and contrary to current assumptions, the new liver distribution system appears to place a disproportionate burden on populations of the current LT community who already experience disparities in health care. The continuous allocation policies being promoted by UNOS could make the situation even worse.

The Politicization of Climate Science: Media Consumption, Perceptions of Science and Scientists, and Support for Policy

Differential media treatment of climate change, including conservative media’s tendency to reject the anthropogenic climate change scientific consensus, has reinforced polarized perceptions of climate change. Studies have found differences in coverage patterns and in perceptions among those relying more heavily on conservative rather than liberal or moderate media. This scholarship has been limited by narrow measurements of media exposure, climate-related outcomes, and the mechanism of effects. We analyzed nationally representative US data (N = 1,181) using measures that included not only reported use of mainstream print, cable, and social media captured in past research, but also science programming, as well as far-right, alternative-health, and Christian media. On average, participants relied more heavily on centrist and liberal media, followed by Fox News and social media. The results corroborate findings associating exposure to centrist media with pro-climate attitudes, and conservative media, including Fox News with the opposite views. Use of far-right outlets was associated with the lowest levels of belief in anthropogenic climate change, perceptions of personal threat, and support for climate-friendly policy. Reliance on science media was associated with pro-climate views. Most associations were mediated via perceptions of science and scientists (using the Factors Associated with Self-Presentation of Science, FASS scale).

The shale oil boom and the US economy: Spillovers and time‐varying effects

SummaryWe provide new evidence that the transmission of oil price shocks to the US economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To show this, we develop a time‐varying parameter factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model with a large data environment of state‐level, industry, and aggregate US data. The model effectively captures potential spillovers between oil and non‐oil industries, as well as variation over time. Specified in this way, we find that investment, income, industrial production, and (non‐oil) employment in most oil‐producing and some manufacturing‐intensive US states increase following an oil‐specific shock—effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.

#1018 Profiles of medication use in dialysis patients globally

Abstract Background and Aims Global patterns of medication use in dialysis have not been defined so far. This project aims to provide a real-world view of medication use in dialysis and to characterize therapeutic classes and types of medications. An anonymized dialysis dataset of a global kidney care network called Apollo Dial DB was used. The most common prescribed medications administered at home by the patients were assessed. Method This is a multi-center, retrospective study using real-life data from adult dialysis patients captured in the first version of the Apollo Dial DB dataset. This dataset contains anonymized dialysis data (longitudinal observation level data) on more than 540,000 unique dialysis patients in 40 countries from Jan 2018-Mar 2021. Home medications were analyzed based on Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) codes. Top (most common) 5 ATC codes for home medication are presented, once as 4-digit ATC code classes (e.g., A12A for Calcium) and once as full/exact ATC code (e.g., A12AA04 as 7-digit code for Calcium carbonate). Results In Apollo Dial DB 497,723 patients had 10,538,324 documented home medication entries (on average 21 medication prescriptions per patient outside the dialysis clinic), thereof 114,978 patients had 1,607,168 ATC code entries. Each ATC code entry represents a documented prescription of individual length. All percentages shown below are related to 1,607,168 ATC code entries (not to patients). The top 4-digit ATC code classes of home medication were Calcium (8.60%), Vitamin A and D, including combinations (7.33%), All other Therapeutic Products (6.84%), Antithrombotic Agents (5.89%) and Selective Calcium Channel Blockers with mainly vascular Effects (5.39%) (Fig. 1). Out of the ATC class Calcium, Calcium carbonate (4.89%) and Calcium acetate (3.22%) are listed as number 1 and 3 of the top 5 ‘full’ ATC codes. Alfacalcidol (3.36%) of ‘Vitamin A and D, including combinations’ is also number 2 of the ‘full’ ATC code list. Amlodipine (3.07%), number 4 of the full ATC code list, represents the majority of ‘Selective Calcium Channel Blockers with mainly vascular Effects’. Sevelamer of ‘All other Therapeutic Products’ is listed as number 5 in the ATC code list with 2.91% (Fig. 2). Conclusion The top 5 home ATC classes of medications account for 34% of all home prescriptions in dialysis patients. They largely represent phosphate binders, vitamin A &amp; D, antithrombotics, and antihypertensives/antiarrhythmic medications. Although, outside the dialysis clinic each patient has on average 21 medication prescriptions, a lot of these prescriptions represent the major medication classes. It is worthwhile to mention the presented data are related to prescriptions and not to duration of use, e.g., both a medication prescribed for 6 months and a prescription for 1 week are documented only once, even if time on drug varies. Further research is needed to explore global patterns, including further ATC code groups particularly on a patient level, accounting for duration of use and medication formulations, real-world application of various drugs (e.g., GLP1 drugs, HIF PH inhibitor) and accounting for US data with NDC codes.

Learning about labor markets

We study a general equilibrium model of the labor market in which agents slowly learn about their suitability for jobs. Our model reproduces desirable features of the data, many of which standard models fail to replicate. We explore how, in such an environment, asymmetric information can lead to substantial misallocation. We calibrate our model to US data and quantify the welfare loss arising from misallocation due to informational frictions. The tractability of the model allows us to explore the responsiveness of wages and employment to an aggregate shock. We find that wage rigidity arises endogenously because of protracted learning, and in line with the data, the model is able to generate a larger and more persistent employment response.

Scale effects and implications of the stochastic structure of customer water demands

ABSTRACT The effect of different temporal (from seconds to months) and spatial aggregation scales (from individual users to full urban areas) on water demand behavior has been explored to a limited degree. The effort described here extends those works by evaluating the scale effects of residential water consumption in a unique US data set that covers 10,000 households with a 1-gallon (3.79 L) hourly resolution over 2 years. A preliminary data analysis and a sequential Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is carried out to assess the effect of different temporal (weekly, daily, hourly) and spatial aggregation (individual meters and groups every 10, 100 and 1,000 meters) levels on demand. Results show that individual users act very differently from each other, and individual consumer variability is only canceled out when a significant number of households are aggregated. The implications of this finding are assessed from a hydraulic modeling perspective as the spatiotemporal scale of measurements may condition the type of analysis that can be carried out in practice. However, additional work is needed to explore the point at which it may be worth embracing a micro (per fixture/household) or a macro (per node/network) approach for different purposes.

Is the supermultiplier stable?

AbstractSupermultiplier models, which show how autonomous demand can drive both business cycles and long‐run GDP growth, are based on a stability assumption. In this paper I look at recent efforts to justify this assumption, and argue that they are not convincing. The supermultiplier literature generally assumes that business investment reacts very slowly to changes in the state of the economy, but faster adjustment speeds are consistent with US data and can generate instability.

Extended analysis of solid cancer incidence among nuclear industry workers in the UK 1955-2011: comparison of workers first hired in earlier and later periods.

To address points arising from the recent study of nuclear workers in the USA and the International Nuclear Workers Study (INWORKS), concerning the difference in solid cancer risk estimates between those first hired in earlier and later calendar years, subsidiary analyses were conducted on a cohort of 172 452 workers in the National Registry for Radiation Workers (NRRW) from the UK. A total of 18 310 incident first primary solid cancer cases were registered in the period from 1955 until 2011 in the NRRW cohort and workers accrued 5.25 million person-years of follow-up. Incidences rates of all solid cancers combined, lung cancer and solid cancer excluding lung cancer were examined in terms of external radiation doses in the full cohort and in a sub-cohort of workers who had no record of internal exposure monitoring and were defined by the periods of first hire before and after the beginning of the years 1960, 1965 and 1970. All analyses were carried out using Poisson Regression. These analyses demonstrated that only for lung cancer between the pre-1965 and post-1964 periods is there strong evidence for a difference in the risks using the NRRW full cohort. In the other calendar period breakdowns and for the other cancer groups, there is no clear evidence of differences in the risks. The NRRW estimation of risks between recent and early workers is not generally consistent with the US workers cohort or the INWORKS evaluations that later hired workers are at much higher solid cancer risk than earlier hired workers, although INWORKS contains a significant part of the latest updated NRRW cohort as well as the US data. The conclusion that the INWORKS and US study data demonstrate a real difference in excess solid cancer risk from external radiation exposure between earlier and later workers is premature. The results presented here should also be treated with caution because of the limited corroborating evidence from other published studies. Information on internal doses, neutron doses as well as non-radiation factors such as smoking and asbestos exposure would be needed to make definitive inferences.

Clinical Course, Antifungal Susceptibility, and Genomic Sequencing of Trichophyton indotineae

Trichophyton indotineae is an emerging dermatophyte causing outbreaks of extensive tinea infections often unresponsive to terbinafine. This species has been detected worldwide and in multiple US states, yet detailed US data on infections with T indotineae are sparse and could improve treatment practices and medical understanding of transmission. To correlate clinical features of T indotineae infections with in vitro antifungal susceptibility testing results, squalene epoxidase gene sequence variations, and isolate relatedness using whole-genome sequencing. This retrospective cohort study of patients with T indotineae infections in New York City spanned May 2022 to May 2023. Patients with confirmed T indotineae infections were recruited from 6 New York City medical centers. Improvement or resolution at the last follow-up assessment. Among 11 patients with T indotineae (6 male and 5 female patients; median [range] age, 39 [10-65] years), 2 were pregnant; 1 had lymphoma; and the remainder were immunocompetent. Nine patients reported previous travel to Bangladesh. All had widespread lesions with variable scale and inflammation, topical antifungal monotherapy failure, and diagnostic delays (range, 3-42 months). Terbinafine treatment failed in 7 patients at standard doses (250 mg daily) for prolonged duration; these patients also had isolates with amino acid substitutions at positions 393 (L393S) or 397 (F397L) in squalene epoxidase that correlated with elevated terbinafine minimum inhibitory concentrations of 0.5 μg/mL or higher. Patients who were treated with fluconazole and griseofulvin improved in 2 of 4 and 2 of 5 instances, respectively, without correlation between outcomes and antifungal minimum inhibitory concentrations. Furthermore, 5 of 7 patients treated with itraconazole cleared or had improvement at the last follow-up, and 2 of 7 were lost to follow-up or stopped treatment. Based on whole-genome sequencing analysis, US isolates formed a cluster distinct from Indian isolates. The results of this case series suggest that disease severity, diagnostic delays, and lack of response to typically used doses and durations of antifungals for tinea were common in this primarily immunocompetent patient cohort with T indotineae, consistent with published data. Itraconazole was generally effective, and the acquisition of infection was likely in Bangladesh.

Artificial intelligence as a second reader for screening mammography

Abstract Background Artificial intelligence (AI) has shown promise in mammography interpretation, and its use as a second reader in breast cancer screening may reduce the burden on health care systems. Purpose To evaluate the performance differences between routine double read and an AI as a second reader workflow (AISR), where the second reader is replaced with AI. Materials and Methods A cohort of patients undergoing routine breast cancer screening at a single center with mammography was retrospectively collected between 2005 and 2021. A model developed on US and UK data was fine-tuned on Japanese data. We subsequently performed a reader study with 10 qualified readers with varied experience (5 reader pairs), comparing routine double read to an AISR workflow. Results A “test set” of 4,059 women (mean age, 56 ± 14 years; 157 positive, 3,902 negative) was collected, with 278 (mean age 55 ± 13 years; 90 positive, 188 negative) evaluated for the reader study. We demonstrate an area under the curve =.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.805-0.881) on the test set, with no significant difference to decisions made in clinical practice (P = .32). Compared with routine double reading, in the AISR arm, sensitivity improved by 7.6% (95% CI, 3.80-11.4; P = .00004) and specificity decreased 3.4% (1.42-5.43; P = .0016), with 71% (212/298) of scans no longer requiring input from a second reader. Variation in recall decision between reader pairs improved from a Cohen kappa of κ = .65 (96% CI, 0.61-0.68) to κ = .74 (96% CI, 0.71-0.77) in the AISR arm. Conclusion AISR improves sensitivity, reduces variability and decreases workload compared to routine dual screening.

Correction to: 2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.

Correction to: 2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.

Patient and Health Care Professional Perceptions of the Experience and Impact of Symptoms of Moderate-to-Severe Crohn’s Disease in US and Europe: Results from the Cross-Sectional CONFIDE Study

BackgroundCrohn’s disease (CD) significantly affects patients’ health-related quality of life and well-being.AimsCommunicating Needs and Features of IBD Experiences (CONFIDE) survey explores the experience and impact of moderate-to-severe CD symptoms on patients’ lives and identifies communication gaps between patients and health care professionals (HCPs).MethodsOnline, quantitative, cross-sectional surveys of patients, and HCPs were conducted in the United States (US), Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom), and Japan. Criteria based on previous treatment, steroid use, and/or hospitalization defined moderate-to-severe CD. US and Europe data are presented as descriptive statistics.ResultsSurveys were completed by 215 US and 547 European patients and 200 US and 503 European HCPs. In both patient groups, top three symptoms currently (past month) experienced were diarrhea, bowel urgency, and increased stool frequency, with more than one-third patients wearing diaper/pad/protection at least once a week in past 3 months due to fear of bowel urgency-related accidents. HCPs ranked diarrhea, blood in stool, and increased stool frequency as the most common symptoms. Although 34.0% US and 27.2% European HCPs ranked bowel urgency among the top five symptoms affecting patient lives, only 12.0% US and 10.9% European HCPs ranked it among top three most impactful symptoms on treatment decisions.ConclusionBowel urgency is common and impactful among patients with CD in the US and Europe. Differences in patient and HCP perceptions of experiences and impacts of bowel urgency exist, with HCPs underestimating its burden. Proactive communication between HCPs and patients in clinical settings is crucial for improving health outcomes in patients with CD.

Chiropractic spinal manipulation and likelihood of tramadol prescription in adults with radicular low back pain: a retrospective cohort study using US data

ObjectivesPatients receiving chiropractic spinal manipulation (CSM) for low back pain (LBP) are less likely to receive any opioid prescription for subsequent pain management. However, the likelihood of specifically being prescribed...

Geographical Variations in Early Onset Colorectal Cancer in the United States between 2001 and 2020.

Colorectal cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer-related death in the US. As early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) becomes more prevalent in the US, research attention has shifted towards identifying at-risk populations. Previous studies have highlighted the rising rate of early-onset adenocarcinoma (ADC) and neuroendocrine tumors (NET) in the US. However, data on geographical variations of EO-CRC are scarce. Hence, our study aims to analyze time trends in EO-CRC incidence rates across various US regions and to assess these trends by sex and histopathological subtypes (ADC and NET). We analyze data spanning from 2001 to 2020 from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) database, covering nearly 98% of the US population. Using SEER*Stat software version (8.4.2, NCI), we calculated EO-CRC incidence rates among adults aged 20-54 years, adjusting for the age standard 2000 US population. The rates were categorized by sex and US geographical regions into west, midwest, northeast, and south. Time trends, reported as annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC), were generated via Joinpoint Regression software (v.5.0.2, NCI) utilizing the weighted Bayesian Information Criteria "BIC" method to generate the best-fit trends with a two-sided p-value cutoff at 0.05. The rates were also stratified by histopathology into ADC and NET. Between 2001 and 2020, a total of 514,875 individuals were diagnosed with early-onset CRC in the US, with 54.78% being men. Incidence rates and trends varied across geographical regions. In the western region (comprising 106,685 patients, 54.85% men), incidence rates significantly increased in both women (AAPC = 1.37, p < 0.001) and men (AAPC = 1.34, p < 0.001). Similarly, in the midwestern region (with 110,380 patients, 55.46% men), there were significant increases in incidence rates among women (AAPC = 1.06, p < 0.001) and men (AAPC = 1.35, p < 0.001). The northeastern region (with 94,758 patients, 54.53% men) also witnessed significant increases in incidence rates for both women (AAPC = 0.71, p < 0.001) and men (AAPC = 0.84, p < 0.001). In contrast, the southern region (with 203,052 patients, 54.48% men) experienced slower increases in incidence rates among both women and men (AAPC = 0.25, p < 0.05 in women; AAPC = 0.66, p < 0.05 in men). When stratified by histopathology, incidence rates for adenocarcinomas (ADC) increased in all regions, most notably in the west (AAPC = 1.45, p < 0.05), and least in the south (AAPC = 0.46, p < 0.05). Conversely, for neuroendocrine tumors (NET), while incidence rates increased similarly across all regions, the pace was notably faster compared to ADC, particularly in the west (AAPC = 3.26, p < 0.05) and slower in the south (AAPC = 2.24, p < 0.05) Discussion: Our analysis of nationwide US data spanning two decades and encompassing over half a million early-onset CRC patients, representing nearly 98% of the US population, highlights significant temporal variation in incidence rates across various geographical regions. The most substantial increases in incidence rates were observed in the west, while the least pronounced changes were noted in the south, affecting both men and women. These trends persisted across the main CRC histopathological subtypes, with NET exhibiting a notably swifter pace of increase compared with ADC. These findings hold important implications for public health strategies and underscore the need for targeted interventions to address the rising burden of early-onset CRC across different regions in the US.

Healthcare spending versus mortality in central nervous system cancer: Has anything changed?

The financial implications of central nervous system (CNS) cancers are substantial, not only for the healthcare service and payers, but also for the patients who bear the brunt of direct, indirect, and intangible costs. This study sought to investigate the impact of healthcare spending on CNS cancer survival using recent US data. This study used public data from the Disease Expenditure Project 2016 and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The primary outcome was the annual healthcare spending trend from 1996 and 2016 on CNS tumors adjusted for disease prevalence, alongside morbidity and mortality. Secondary outcomes included drivers of change in healthcare expenditures for CNS cancers. Subgroup analysis was performed stratified by age group, expenditure type, and care type provided. There was a significant increase in total healthcare spending on CNS cancers from $2.72 billion (95% CI: $2.47B to $2.97B) in 1996 to $6.85 billion (95% CI: $5.98B to $7.57B) in 2016. Despite the spending increase, the mortality rate per 100 000 people increased, with 5.30 ± 0.47 in 1996 and 7.02 ± 0.47 in 2016, with an average of 5.78 ± 0.47 deaths per 100 000 over the period. The subgroups with the highest expenditure included patients aged 45 to 64, those with private insurance, and those receiving inpatient care. This study highlights a significant rise in healthcare costs for CNS cancers without corresponding improvements in mortality rate, indicating a mismatch of healthcare spending, contemporary advances, and patient outcomes as it relates to mortality.

Hypertension Prevalence and Control Among People With and Without HIV - United States, 2022.

People with HIV (human immunodeficiency virus; PWH) have higher rates of cardiovascular disease than people without HIV. However, limited information exists about hypertension prevalence and associated risk factors in PWH. This cross-sectional study included adult patients in the 2022 IQVIATM Ambulatory Electronic Medical Record-US data. HIV was identified based on ≥2 HIV diagnosis codes or a positive HIV test. Hypertension was identified by diagnosis codes, ≥2 blood pressure (BP) readings ≥130/80 mm Hg, or an antihypertensive medication prescription. Among those with hypertension, control was defined as the most recent BP < 130/80 mm Hg. Logistic models using the marginal standardization method were used to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of hypertension and hypertension control among all patients and PWH specifically, controlling for covariates. Of 7,533,379 patients, 19,102 (0.3%) had HIV. PWH had higher hypertension prevalence (66% vs. 54%, aPR:1.14, 95% CI: 1.13-1.15) compared with people without HIV. Among persons with hypertension, PWH were more likely to have controlled hypertension (aPR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.07-1.13) compared with people without HIV. Among PWH, those from the South were more likely to have hypertension (aPR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.12) than PWH from the Northeast, while Black PWH were less likely to have controlled hypertension (aPR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.67-0.77) than White PWH. PWH were more likely to have hypertension than people without HIV. Geographic and racial disparities in hypertension prevalence and control were observed among PWH. Optimal care for PWH includes comprehensive strategies to screen for, prevent, and manage hypertension.

What keeps you up at night? Moral distress in nurse leaders in the USA, Germany, Austria and Switzerland

PurposeNurse leaders are challenged by ethical issues in today’s complex health-care settings. The purpose of this study was to describe and analyze key elements of moral distress identified by nurse leaders from health-care systems in the USA, Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The aim was to develop an understanding of distressing ethical issues nurse leaders face in the USA and three German-speaking European countries.Design/methodology/approachThis descriptive cross-sectional study surveyed a convenience sample of nurse leaders in the USA, Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The voluntary, anonymous survey also included qualitative questions and was distributed using the Qualtrics® platform. A thematic analysis of the qualitative data in each country was carried out and a comparative analysis identified similarities and differences between the groups of nurse leaders comparing the US data to that from three German-speaking European countries.FindingsThe survey was completed by 316 nurse leaders: Germany, Austria, and Switzerland (n = 225) and the USA (n = 91). Similar themes identified as causing all nurse leaders moral distress included a lack of individual and organizational integrity, hierarchical and interprofessional issues, lack of nursing professionalism, patient care/patient safety concerns, finances negatively impacting care and issues around social justice. Within these six themes, there were also differences between the USA and the three German-speaking European countries.Originality/valueUnderstanding the experiences associated with distressing ethical situations can allow nurse leaders and organizations to focus on solutions and develop resilience to reduce moral distress in the USA and three German-speaking European countries.

An Assessment of Pandemic Era Inflation, 2021–2022

This paper examines the inflationary period of 2021 to the middle of 2022 primarily by employing US data but is suggestive of the global inflation experience given important cross-border linkages. Inflation is posited as a result of buyer firms, operating across multiple, global supply chain stages, who must shift their purchases to a reduced set of supplier companies. Supply is crimped because of pandemic impacts on capacity. Supply-induced shortages cause global demands to concentrate around fewer oligopoly producers who hike markups and prices. Empirical work is directed at understanding which specific factors that affect pricing are most responsible for the experienced inflation. The paper finds that markup increases represent a larger fraction of price increases than the other price components, suggesting that profit-push is the most important cause of the global inflation experience. Industrial data show that cuts to the aggregate productive capacity of firms did occur, setting the stage for shortages to develop, particularly after demand recovered from the pandemic lockdown.

Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages

I study how input-output linkages amplify the aggregate impact of sectoral financial distortions in a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous capital wedges. The aggregate impact of a shock can be decomposed into weighted productivity changes and changes in allocative efficiency. A systematic uncertainty shock induces heterogenous responses in sectoral capital wedges, reducing allocative efficiency and aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). However, idiosyncratic sectoral uncertainty shocks may improve allocative efficiency and raise TFP. I then calibrate the model to US data. The network amplification magnitude on aggregate TFP ranges from 1.58 to 1.7. (JEL E22, E23, E25, E32, E44, G20, G30)

Cost-effectiveness of an in-development adult-formulated 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in US adults aged 50 years or older

Indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) have diminished the cost-effectiveness of current adult vaccine recommendations. An in-development adult-formulated 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV21) may play a critical role in reducing pneumococcal illness by targeting a larger number of serotypes responsible for adult pneumococcal infections. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of PCV21 in US adults aged 50 years or older compared with currently recommended pneumococcal vaccines, from both the societal and healthcare perspectives. A Markov model evaluated the lifetime cost-effectiveness of PCV21 (given at age 50 years only, at ages 50/65 years, and risk-based at ages < 65 years plus age-based at age 65 years) compared to no vaccination and to currently recommended pneumococcal vaccines given either as currently recommended or routinely at ages 50/65 years. The analysis was conducted in hypothetical Black and non-Black cohorts aged 50 years or older, with and without considering childhood pneumococcal vaccination indirect effects. Model parameters were based on US data. Parameter uncertainty was assessed using 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.From the societal perspective, PCV21 at ages 50/65 years compared to PCV21 at age 50 years cost $7,410 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained in Black cohort analyses and $85,696/QALY gained in the non-Black cohort; PCV21 at ages 50/65 years had the most favorable public health outcomes. From the healthcare perspective, compared to no vaccination, PCV21 at age 50 years cost $46,213/QALY gained in the Black cohort and $86,629/QALY in non-Blacks. All other strategies were dominated in both cohorts and from both perspectives. When considering childhood pneumococcal vaccination indirect effects, costs of PCV21 at ages 50/65 years remained less than $140,000/QALY gained from the societal perspective in both populations. PCV21 is potentially cost-effective compared to currently approved pneumococcal vaccines in adults aged 50 years or older from both the societal and healthcare perspectives.