Dangerous Weather Phenomena Research Articles

Dangerous weather phenomena and their effect on en-route flight delays in Europe

Meteorological reports from Europe indicate that the number and intensity of summer thunderstorms are from year to year, gradually increasing. Climate change is seen as a difference in mean temperature and precipitation level and can lead to dangerous weather phenomena. This paper is driven by the idea to determine the impact of severe weather on air transport in Europe during the summer months. For the analysis, Performance Review Unit (PRU) Dashboard data from 2013 to 2019 were used. The more recent period was not considered due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodology covers the statistical analysis to confirm the theory. Research has shown that weather-related en-route delays are growing, influencing air transport’s future operation and economics. This paper also presents a medium-term forecast (3 years period) of the weather-related delays using the Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) Holt-Winters model. Based on the obtained outcomes, recommendations are presented in the conclusion.

ОБОСНОВАНИЕ НАПРАВЛЕНИЙ РАЗВИТИЯ АГРОСТРАХОВАНИЯ В РЕГИОНАХ РАСТЕНИЕВОДЧЕСКОЙ СПЕЦИАЛИЗАЦИИ

Increase in quantity of the abnormal weather phenomena and amplitude of their action threatens steady agroproduction and creates risks for ensuring food security of the Russian Federation already in the medium term. It causes need of identification of characteristic climate risks for key branches of agriculture, studying of regional features of their manifestation and also justification of organizational and economic measures for mitigation from negative impact of climatic factors. A research objective is the analysis of influence of the dangerous weather phenomena on productivity of grain and leguminous crops in regions of crop specialization and development of recommendations about development of the mechanism of agroinsurance in these subjects. The research included a number of regions, in each of which the share of products of crop production in total amount across the Russian Federation from 2009 for 2019 exceeded 1%. With use of methods of the mathematicostatistical analysis three classification groups of territorial subjects of the Russian Federation are received and described. The analysis of dependence of key indicators of the grain industry on types and quantity of the dangerous weather phenomena in regions of each of the allocated groups showed the accruing influence of climate risks in the most productive regions which specific weight of products of crop pro- duction in a total amount of crop products across the Russian Federation was more than 4%. It is established that the all-Russian trends of manifestation of climate risks and their influence on productivity of basic crops are characteristic of regions of the second and third classification groups. The value of insurance of agricultural risks in the system of mechanisms of adaptation of agroproducers to the increasing climate risks is emphasized. Offers on development of the types and forms of agroinsurance considering features of regions (characteristic climate risks, the main grown-up types of products of crop production, structure of producers) everyone their the allocated classification groups are formulated.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) climatic contribution to winter temperature in Belarus: case of SSW 2017/2018

The influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere is defined by a multifactorial mechanism containing various geophysical and photochemical processes. This interaction determines the weather and climate of a particular region of the Earth. The number of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) over Eurasia has doubled over the past 20 years if compared with the second half of the 20th century. As a result, one had an increase in dangerous weather phenomena associated with those stratospheric-tropospheric interactions. In this regard, there is a certain need for an early forecast of such dangerous weather phenomena and their study within the framework of the climate of a given region. The paper presents a possible mechanism of the interaction of the mesosphere, stratosphere and troposphere layers (the so-called “ozone mechanism”). Due to its orographical and geographical position, the northern region of the East European Plain is characterized by accumulation of total ozone (TO) over this territory and formation of sharp and severe colds during SSW. The conclusion is made about the key contribution of the “ozone mechanism” to the development of SSW in 2018, which has become the largest in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 20 years.

An Investigation of circulation regime variability and dangerous weather phenomena in Russia in the 21stcentury

The variability of Northern Hemisphere circulation types from 1899-2018 are analyzed and the classification of atmospheric circulation types in the early 21st century are shown. These are associated with the frequency of dangerous weather phenomena, natural processes, and disasters within Russia during this time. Against this background, the synoptic conditions for the formation of extreme precipitation and floods, as well as natural fires in 2019 are considered. It is shown that an increase in the frequency of occurrence of stationary anticyclones and blocking flow regimes as well as an extension of the Mediterranean storm track was associated with an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation and dangerous natural processes. Additionally, the occurrence of thunderstorms, often dry, led to the development of natural fires.

ДИНАМІКА ВИНИКНЕННЯ СТИХІЙНИХ ОПАДІВ НА ТЕРИТОРІЇ ЗАКАРПАТСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ З 1990 ПО 2019 рр.

Heavy rainfall affects almost all spheres of human life and the economy, the intensity of this impact may depend on their type and quantity, duration and phase state, as well as geographical properties of the territory. In the paper determined the dynamics of severe precipitation (heavy and extreme rains and snowfalls) in the Transcarpathian region for 1990-2019. Information on severe precipitation was obtained from the observation points of the state hydrometeorological network of the Transcarpathian Regional Center for Hydrometeorology. Also included are data from the Pozhezhevska snow avalanche station (Ivano-Frankivsk region) as a representative observation point for the highland zone of the eastern part of the Transcarpathian region. Involvement of information from hydrological posts allowed to discover more cases of dangerous weather phenomena. The study revealed trends in the formation of heavy and extreme rains and snowfalls over the area with complex orography.

Estimation of Parameters of Dangerous Weather Phenomena Associated with Atmospheric Precipitates Using the Optical Precipitation Gage

Prospects for using the optical precipitation gage OPTIOS for detecting dangerous weather phenomena associated with atmospheric precipitates are considered. The results of heavy shower (more than 50 mm/h) measurements are presented. The optical precipitation gage OPTIOS is shown to allow estimation of precipitation characteristics to provide prompt warning of the occurrence of a dangerous phenomenon.

Analysis of the height difference of the zero isotherm according to two temperature profilers

One of the main indicators characterizing the quality of meteorological support of flights is the justifiability of aviation weather forecasts and forecasts of dangerous weather phenomena. For the detection and prediction of dangerous meteorological weather phenomena are currently used very advanced systems, which include meteorological radar stations near the airfield zone. The reliability of the forecast of such dangerous weather events as icing, thunderstorms, hail, squally wind according to the information from the meteorological radar stations of the near airfield zone significantly depends on the data on the height of the zero isotherm. The correctness of the entered values of the zero isotherm position directly affects the probability of false alarms, and, consequently, the degree of justification of weather forecasts and forecasts of dangerous weather events. The source of information about the position of the zero isotherm can serve as radiosonding data of the atmosphere. However, the data of aerological radiosonding of the atmosphere are not operational. In addition, at present, obsolete systems are used on Roshydromet aerological network in addition to fairly modern aerological radar systems. This, in conjunction with the sufficiently low cost of the network of aerological stations on the territory of the Russian Federation does not allow the operational use of radiosonding data to determine the height of the zero isotherm at a particular airport. An alternative source of information about the position of the zero isotherm for solving the problems of meteorological location are temperature profilers. Temperature Profiler refers to the remote means of measuring the parameters of the atmosphere, and the principle of its operation is based on the methods of radiometry. Use the temperature of a caliper can be operatively obtain information about the temperature profile at the airport and, therefore, it can be a source for weather radar data on the zero isotherme, and isotherme -22°C, which is also used to identify hazardous weather phenomena. In this paper, the spatial variability of the zero isotherm position is analyzed according to the data of two temperature profilers. As a result of experimental studies, it was determined that within a radius of about 10 kilometers from the installation site of the Profiler, the measured temperature profiles remain virtually unchanged. This result can be used in the development of methods of placement of meteorological support for flights at the airport. Of practical interest are similar studies for airfields located in the mountainous, coastal and other geographical regions of Russia.

Estimation Method for Wind Load of Building Using Spatial Information

Recently, the extent of damage due to localized heavy winds and typhoons has increased because of climate change. Being a peninsula, South Korea is affected by weather patterns arising from the mainland and the ocean as well as dangerous weather phenomena such as hurricanes that occur every year, posing a great danger to the safety of buildings. This study attempts to solve this problem by developing a wind load measurement reflecting method, KBC 2016 criteria. This study employs spatial information to calculate the wind load. By using a reflecting design, the factors affecting the wind load, such as the height of the building, are used to obtain a wind load value. The wind load value applied to a building was calculated, compared, and analyzed with actual application cases. Thus, this study is expected to solve challenges arising when designers calculate the wind load in a subjective and non-scientific manner and will enable the design of more rational and cost-effective wind-resistant buildings. Keywords: Wind Load, Wind Velocity, Velocity Pressure Exposure Coefficient, Topographic Factors, GIS

The cyclonic activity and frequency of dangerous weather phenomena over the territory of Belarus

In recent decades in the world, and in the Republic of Belarus in particular, the question of the impact of weather conditions on the development of sectors of the economy and life of the population has become acute. The sudden changes in weather conditions can lead to adverse and dangerous weather phenomena that cause significant damage to the country’s economy. This paper examines the frequency of dangerous weather phenomena in cyclones of different trajectories that moved through the territory of the Republic of Belarus during the period of 1995–2015. It is identified that southern and western cyclones caused dangerous weather events over the territory of Belarus. The interannual and seasonal frequency of cyclones causing dangerous weather phenomena in Belarus was analyzed. It is shown that the largest number of southern and western cyclones was characteristic mainly for the summer period, as well as the transitional seasons of the year, therefore the dangerous weather phenomena were associated mainly with the development of severe convection on atmospheric fronts. Such phenomena as very heavy rain, snowfall and wind had the highest frequency in cyclones, as in southern as western trajectories. The share of strong sticking of wet snow and large hail were isolated cases and these phenomena were recorded locally over the territory of country.

The dialectic of climate extremes between reality and fiction

تتناول هذه الدراسة موضوعة الجدلية القائمة حول ظاهرة التطرف المناخي كحقيقة واقعية شغلت العلماء والمختصين القائمين عليه في هذا المجال، خاصة في السنوات الاخيرة وكيف تم تناوله وفق البناء الواقعي والبناء الخيالي في الوسيط السينمائي على الشاشة. تناولت الباحثة في هذه الدراسة اثنان من المباحث هي : المبحث الاول: التطرف المناخي والطقوس الانسانية والدرامية المبحث الثاني: البناء الواقعي والبناء الخيالي في الوسيط السينماتوغرافي. وقد استندت الدراسة على تحليل الفيلم السينمائي (جيوستورم) الذي يركز على قضية العواصف الطبيعية العالمية والظواهر المناخية الخطيرة التي تهدد الارض نتيجة الاهمال والعبث بالموارد الاستهلاكية الحية على نحو خاص دون الالتفات الى المخاطر الناجمة عن ذلك، فضلا عن تسليطه الضوء حول الاستغلال السياسي للسيطرة على أنظمة التحكم المناخي في إطار درامي خيالي مستند الى الواقع.

New prognostic indicator of adverse and dangerous weather phenomena — gradient of the integral helicity of the atmospheric motion velocity field

Some new properties of integral helicity are revealed, in particular, the dipole structure of the structure of its field. Taking this circumstance into account, a more informative and illustrative criterion for evaluating integral helicity is a gradient of integral helicity that is promising in analyzing and forecasting adverse and dangerous weather phenomena.Using the example of a convective storm inMoscow05.29.2017. Indicators of predictive quality and clarity, used as diagnostic indicators and dangerous weather phenomena. Considering that such a convective storm is predicted in just a couple of hours, or even several tens of minutes, the proposed criterion, which ensures the forecast lead time of about 12 hours, can become an important link in the technological line for predicting dangerous weather phenomena and a significant reserve for reducing economic damage due to meteorological reasons.

To the prognostic meaning for the one of criteria for helicity estimation in atmosphere

A new informative and evident criterion for estimating the integral helicity is introduced - the gradient of integral helicity. On the example of a convective storm in Moscow on May 29, 2017, its prognostic property is shown (lead time is 12 hours). Its applicability as a prognostic indicator of adverse and dangerous weather phenomena is shown.

Fog and its occurrence at the Žilina Airport

Over the past few years, the air transport has developed rapidly and the traveling from continent to continent has increased. But this great development puts higher demands on a transport safety. Meteorology and its conditions are therefore becoming an important part of flight planning. But dangerous weather phenomena can cause problems in our efforts. Fog is a dangerous weather phenomenon that can occur throughout the year. Especially in the vicinity of airports, its occurrence may very quickly change the conditions which affects safety and fluency of air transport. However, there are certain weather situations when fog is more likely to occur. In order to create a mist in a given location, we need to have certain conditions fulfilled in the atmosphere within the a given area. One of the conditions needed for mist or fog to create, is increased presence of water vapor. Since there is a water reservoir near the airport in Žilina, it was assumed that the formation of fog, its duration and abundance was also affected by the nearby water reservoir. The article deals with the analysis of fog occurrence at the airport in Žilina just at the time when the tank was released. The article shows the effect of the reservoir on the occurrence of fog during the period when the reservoir was full but also empty.

REDUCING INFLUENCE OF ADVERSE EXTERNAL CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL AIRPORTS

The problem of the unfavorable weather conditions impact on aircraft, including electric discharges on aircraft, continues to be relevant. For the successful implementation of flights, aviation as a type of transport should ensure safety, regularity and economy of air transportation. The aerial meteorology always takes an active part in above problems solution, since flight safety depends on timely prediction of unfavorable weather conditions. Modern airfield and aircraft equipment, as well as a new meteorological technique, helped to improve flight safety and reduce the number of accidents associated with adverse weather conditions, but this did not solve all the problems of civil aviation meteorological support. This problem is especially acute in small airports, where there are often no means of meteorological support and warnings about dangerous weather phenomena or they are insufficient. The article analyzes various unfavorable weather conditions, their influence on aircraft, provides statistics related to unfavorable weather conditions of aviation accidents, and shows the proportion of meteorological conditions among the factors affecting safety. Particular attention is paid to the problem of electric discharges to aircraft. The consequences of electric discharges on aircraft, as well as weather conditions contributing to electric discharges, are analyzed. In order to improve flight safety at local airports, it is proposed to create mobile units for collecting, processing and transmitting meteorological information that is territorially spread over the aerodrome zone; it allows to create mobile meteorological radar network. The structural scheme of the deployment of the mobile network for meteorological radars is given.

Current state and tendencies of distribution of ground frosts within the territory of Ukraine

The purpose of this work consists in identifying the main trends of present-day formation and distribution of ground frosts throughout Ukraine. For this purpose the analysis of a minimum air temperature field has been conducted based on observation data at 186 stations of Ukraine for the period from 1991 to 2014. It is known that extreme values of air temperature are much more informative than its average values. Therefore analyses of meteorological extreme values usually lead to more substantial and qualitative results.
 In the course of the work, occurrences of frost in April, May and September have been studied separately from each other while these three months are deemed to be the most dangerous in terms of frosts' frequency and negative impact. In order to identify trends to occurrence of this dangerous weather phenomenon a comparison of two decades of 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 has been made. In addition, the latest observation period of 2011-2014 has been considered separately taking into account the results of comparative analysis of two preceding decades.
 The results of the work indicate a decrease of number of September days having this dangerous weather phenomenon during the last few years. However, recurrence of frosts remains stably high in April while in May it appears to be high only in certain years. The obtained results also indicate the fact that the northern and northeastern territories of Ukraine appear to be the most vulnerable to frosts.
 Thus it should be noted that a threat of adverse consequences caused by ground frosts is still there and remains to be quite high, especially for agriculture.

Future climate change and it`s impact on precipitation and temperature in Ukraine

Global climate change has provoked an active development in modern methods relating to the prediction of spatiotemporal hydrometeorological fields. Numerical modeling of nearest-future climatic changes allows to generate strategies of development for different areas of economic activity.
 The paper aims to assess the expected air temperature and precipitation features in Ukraine considering different scenarios of climatic change. The modeling future changes of air temperature and precipitation were carried out using the A1B and A2 scenarios of climatic change. The outcomes of regional climate model ECHAM5 from ENSEMBLES Project were used as initial data. It was revealed that the air temperature will gradually increase in most of Ukrainian regions. Moreover highest air temperature will be recorded in Southern Ukraine during 2031-2050. The analysis of linear trends for 2031-2050 showed that the air temperature for the scenario A1B will exhibit a tendency to the decrease of temperature. However, the annually mean temperature in 2031-2050 for the ‘moderate’ scenario A1B will be higher than for the ‘hard’, in terms of greenhouse gases concentrations, scenario A2. The annual precipitation in Ukraine, both for the A1B and A2 scenario, will slightly increase toward the 2050 with the exception of Southern Ukraine. Also, the highest annual precipitation will be registered in the western part of Ukraine, and lowest – in the southern one. The paper can be expanded to the analysis of future dangerous weather phenomena depending on the changes of air temperature and precipitation.

Analysis and numerical simulation of an aircraft icing episode near Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas International Airport

Aircraft icing is one of the most dangerous weather phenomena in aviation security. Therefore, avoiding areas with high probability of icing episodes along arrival and departure routes to airports is strongly recommended. Although such icing is common, forecasting and observation are far from perfect. This paper presents an analysis of an aircraft icing and turbulence event including a commercial flight near the Guadarrama Mountains, during the aircraft approach to the airport. No reference to icing or turbulence was made in the pre-flight meteorological information provided to the pilot, highlighting the need for additional tools to predict such risks. For this reason, the icing episode is simulated by means of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and analyzed using images from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, with the aim of providing tools for the detection of icing and turbulence in the airport vicinity.The WRF simulation shows alternating updrafts and downdrafts (>2ms−1) on the lee side of the mountain barrier. This is consonant with moderate to strong turbulence experienced by the aircraft on its approach path to the airport and suggests clear air turbulence above the mountain wave cloud top. At the aircraft icing altitude, supercooled liquid water associated with orographic clouds and mountain waves is simulated. Daytime and nighttime MSG images corroborated the simulated mountain waves and associated supercooled liquid water. The results encourage the use of mesoscale models and MSG nowcasting information to minimize aviation risks associated with such meteorological phenomena.

An objective approach for comparing radar estimated and rain gauge measured precipitation

One of the main concerns with quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) based on weather radar observations is the extent to which nowcasters should believe them as they rush to issue warnings for dangerous weather phenomena that might endanger human lives and goods. This paper aims to improve QPE by adjusting the mean field bias using rain gauge measurements. Radar data used in this research were supplied from a single polarization S-band Doppler radar, WSR-98D (Weather Surveillance Radar – 98 Doppler), located almost in the centre of Romania, at Bobohalma, and a network consisting of 27 rain gauges within weather stations belonging to the Romanian National Meteorological Administration. The procedure consisted of two main steps: in step one, the reflectivity data were converted into rain rate using the Z–R relationship; in step two, differences between radar data and gauge data were investigated using four objective functions, the ratio between radar data and gauge data, the root-mean-square factor, and Pearson and Spearman correlations. The findings are consistent with previous studies, emphasizing that both the differences and correlations between radar data and rain gauge amounts have local significance rather than general relevance over the studied area.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE PROBABLY-GEOGRAPHICAL FORECAST METHOD FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER PHENOMENA

This paper presents a scheme method of probably-geographical forecast for dangerous weather phenomena. Discuss two general realization stages of this method. Emphasize that developing method is response to actual questions of modern weather forecast and it’s appropriate phenomena: forecast is carried out for specific point in space and appropriate moment of time.

Cost vs. safety: A novel design for tornado proof homes

Tornadoes are dangerous and destructive weather phenomena. The strongest category of tornadoes on the enhanced Fujita and TORRO scales is responsible for 75% of property destruction and deaths across the globe. These issues highlight the need for new design practices aimed at producing tornado proof homes in particular 3D CAD models in tornado prone zones at current climatic scenarios. Previous studies were entirely based on traditional slants and failed to offer a reliable tornado proof home, other than small rooms and trailers, while, none of the literature concentrated on multiple factors (cost, safety and high-wind proof). Therefore, a knowledge gap exists. In order to address the current research gap, this study attempts to develop an innovative 3D CAD model for tornado resistant homes by incorporating 2 PA (Two Path Analysis). Consequently, this study provides a new design using a 3D-CAD model for a tornado resistant home as in Path One and cost and safety scenarios in Path Two. However, this new design utilizes missile steel and shield technology. Preliminary results showed that, while this new design is safer and more technically sophisticated, it involves an increase of 25–30% in construction costs. However, this increased expense is low in comparison with rebuilding costs.