Dangerous Climate Change Research Articles

Usable climate science is adaptation science

The author argues that in the present historical moment, the only climate science that is truly usable is that which is oriented towards adaptation, because current policies and politics are so far from what would be needed to avert dangerous climate change that scientific uncertainty is not a limiting factor on mitigation. The author considers what implications this might have for climate science and climate scientists.

Renewable energy sources potential evaluation in Romania

Renewable energy sources (wind energy, solar energy, energy hydropower, ocean energy, geothermal energy, biomass and biofuels) are alternatives to conventional fuels in the greenhouse gases emissions reduction process. Because of the EU legislation support, the renewable energy sources have evolved significantly in recent years and in 2009 EU set a target of 20% energy consumption comes from renewable energy sources by 2020. In 2018, the target has been set for 32% of energy consumption from renewable energy sources by 2030. There is currently a debate on the policy framework future for the period after 2030. Greenhouse gas emissions is considered a serious threat regarding climate change, with potentially disastrous effects on humanity. The use renewable energy sources (RES), together with improved energy efficiency, can contribute to the reduction of energy consumption, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, to prevent dangerous climate change. The potential of biomass, solar, hydro, wind and geothermal energy is very important, especially in recent years, due to financial support mechanisms such as green certificates, which in many European countries helped this sector to developed progressively.

From CO2 to Value-Added Products: A Review about Carbon-Based Materials for Electro-Chemical CO2 Conversion

The global warming and the dangerous climate change arising from the massive emission of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels have motivated the search for alternative clean and sustainable energy sources. However, the industrial development and population necessities make the decoupling of economic growth from fossil fuels unimaginable and, consequently, the capture and conversion of CO2 to fuels seems to be, nowadays, one of the most promising and attractive solutions in a world with high energy demand. In this respect, the electrochemical CO2 conversion using renewable electricity provides a promising solution. However, faradaic efficiency of common electro-catalysts is low, and therefore, the design of highly selective, energy-efficient, and cost-effective electrocatalysts is critical. Carbon-based materials present some advantages such as relatively low cost and renewability, excellent electrical conductivity, and tunable textural and chemical surface, which show them as competitive materials for the electro-reduction of CO2. In this review, an overview of the recent progress of carbon-based electro-catalysts in the conversion of CO2 to valuable products is presented, focusing on the role of the different carbon properties, which provides a useful understanding for the materials design progress in this field. Development opportunities and challenges in the field are also summarized.

Civil engineers’ role in saving the world: updating the moral basis of the profession

Today’s civil engineering profession was born in the industrial revolution with the vision of ‘harnessing the forces of nature for the benefit of mankind’. However, the industry’s alarming environmental impact means that civil engineers must urgently change their impact on the world. Viewing the dangers of climate change through the lens of behavioural science, this paper identifies the four ‘levers’ that civil engineers must pull to put the profession on a sustainable and morally justifiable path. Three of the levers focus on behaviours, outlining measures that individuals, companies and institutions can take to realign decision making to the needs of sustaining life on the planet. Only one lever relates to new technological solutions. These levers offer a pragmatic to-do list of actions, to unlock systemic change, and thereby accelerate the profession’s transition to a net-zero future.

Effect of partial shading in grid connected solar PV system with FL controller

As conventional fossil fuel reserves shrink and the danger of climate change prevailing, the need for alternative energy sources is unparalleled. A smart approach to compensate the dependence on electricity generated by burning fossil fuels is through the power generation using grid connected PV system. Partial shading on PV array affects the quantity of the output power in photovoltaic (PV) systems. To extract maximum power from PV under variable irradiance, variable temperature and partial shading condition, various MPPT algorithms are used. Incremental conductance and fuzzy based MPPT techniques are used for maximum power extraction from PV array. Basically 11 kW Solar PV system comprising of PV array coupled with an Inverter through a dc-dc converter is considered for the analysis and output of the inverter is supplied to the load through the LCL filter. An Intelligent controller for maximum power point tracking of PV power is designed. Also, a fuzzy controller for VSC is developed to improve the system performance. The above proposed design has been simulated in the MATLAB/Simulink and analyzed the system performance under various operating conditions. Finally, the performance is evaluated with IEEE 1547 standard for showing the effectiveness of the system.

On the Permissibility (Or Otherwise) of Negative Emissions

ABSTRACT Limiting dangerous climate change is now widely believed to require negative emissions (NETs), a prospect some believe to be unjust and unacceptably risky. While NETs are not risk-free, I argue that they could be part of minimally just responses to climate change. In doing so, I identify a dilemma between limiting warming to 1.5 ° C, which promises lower climate impacts but implies greater NETs risks, and 2°C, which requires less NETs but promises greater climate impacts. Finally, I consider what the case of NETs reveals about permissibility in the face of non-compliance with principles of climate justice.

Fairness in transitions to low-carbon mobility

Decarbonizing transport is vital to prospects of mitigating dangerous climate change but requires changes in travel, which will affect people's lives. Operationalizing fair, effective, transitions to low-carbon mobility is possible only if we focus on measures enabling participation in social and economic activities with limited reliance on motorized transport.

Перспективы устойчивого развития: переход к низкоуглеродной энергетике

Since the middle of the twentieth century, the concept of consumer society based on the overproduction and overconsumption of consumer goods has become widespread. Intensive industrial development destroys the Earth's ecosystems and leads to dangerous climate changes. One of the main mechanisms for reducing the negative anthropogenic impact on the environment is the formation of models of sustainable, i.e. less resource-intensive consumption. The article analyzes one of the aspects of sustainable consumption associated with structural changes in the balance of energy consumption: the gradual move from hydrocarbons to «green» energy. The key technologies underlying the transition to a low-carbon economy are considered, as well as the potential of different countries to develop these technologies.

Could COVID-19 decide our climate future?

The COVID-19 pandemic has been dynamically reshaping our lifestyle and society. Despite huge drops in global pollution as people stayed at home, our study reveals 2020’s initial lockdowns had little effect on the climate. The challenge now is to use this knowledge to create a global green economic recovery, which will help us avoid the most dangerous climate change. - submission by Piers M. Forster, Deborah Z. Rosen

Covid-kriza kao izazov za strukturne promene u energetici – na globalnom i nacionalnom nivou

COVID-19 pandemic is realizing a deep recession of the global economy, income fall as well as the increase of unemployment and many enforced inter/sectorial changes. The crisis hits the sector of personal services more than other sectors (especially tourism, transport, catering) but also most branches of industries and manufacturing. Energy sector was damaged less or more, depending on the branch or technology, and fall of energy demand. It seems that the global economic recovery, nevertheless it could be in 2021 or later, will cause the high demand energy increase. The world will probably again be faced with choice of unsustainable and risky growth as previously, or sustainable growth and development. The actual dominant growth model is based on increasing material resources exploiting, negative externalities increasing (especially pollution) and very dangerous climate changes. The main contribution of climate changes to climate changes and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission is given by energy sector. If the energy sector would be developed like before in continuity with previous practice, this may lead to the strong energy intensity increase. The alternative way of fundamental restructuring is more difficult, but much more globally effective in developmental (economic, technology and environmental) sense. Serbia could remediate some short-term recession, but its official apply for high growth rate just after one-year recession, based on previous economy and energy structure, can be very dangerous, risky and unacceptable deception. However, inefficient public sector in general expensive public administration environment in combination with extremely dirty and inefficient energy could remove away the Serbian energetics from the modernization and reform process, which could worsen public health and environmental safety. On the other hand, energy reform and deep structural changes based on the green and circular economy, could give the opportunity for the quality growth and sustainable development after COVID-crisis. Today tipping point to economic flaws after the immunization-vaccination beginning, in Serbia, as all over the world, could be used for the designing unavoidable system strategic and structural policies and measures of sustainable energy.

Implications of COVID-19 on progress in the UN Conventions on biodiversity and climate change

2020 was to be a landmark year for setting targets to stop biodiversity loss and prevent dangerous climate change. However, COVID-19 has caused delays to the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the 26th COP of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Negotiations on the Global Biodiversity Framework and the second submission of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement were due to take place at these COPs. There is uncertainty as to how the COVID-19 disruption will affect the negotiations, whether parties will pursue more ambitious actions or take a weaker stance on issues. Our policy analysis shows there are broad opportunities for climate and biodiversity frameworks to better respond to COVID-19, by viewing future pandemics, biodiversity loss, and climate change as interconnected problems. Importantly, there needs to be greater focus on agriculture and food systems in discussions, establishing safeguards for carbon markets, and implementing nature-based solutions in meeting the Paris Agreement goals. We can no longer delay action to address the biodiversity and climate emergencies, and accelerating sustainable recovery plans through virtual spaces may help keep discussions and momentum before the resumption of in-person negotiations.Non-technical summary:High ambition needed at UN biodiversity and climate conferences to address pandemics, biodiversity, climate change, and health.

How EU Directives on GHG Emissions Discriminate Against... EU Member States and Their Citizens

At face value, the intentions of EU’s Directives {2003/87 to 2018/410} are good – limiting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as a way to combat global warming and avert dangerous climate change. However, the implementation of those Directives – specifically, the Emissions Trading System (ETS) – entails two paths of discrimination: 1. Against Eastern European members, since in 2014 most of them have already exceeded the 2030 reduction target (40% compared to 1990), set by the European Council during the same year. The GHG reduction results in 2014 stood as follows: Bulgaria - 49.5%, Estonia - 48.4%, Hungary - 47.1%, Latvia - 58.7%, Lithuania - 58.2%, Romania - 63.4%, Slovakia - 45.7%. Those were some of the biggest GHG reductions worldwide, much higher than the EU average of 24.1%. Instead of being completely relieved of participation in the ETS, the aforementioned EU members continued (and continue) to comply fully with the regulations, incurring substantial costs. 2. Against all EU members, as worldwide there is no matching scheme and even some of the wealthiest nations – with sufficient capabilities for environmental policies – recorded an increase of GHG emissions during the 1990-2019 period: Australia by 28.7%, Canada by 24.1%, and New Zealand by 26.4%. The statistics for developing countries are even worse: for instance, India’s and China’s emissions increased nearly four-fold. In other words, the EU is almost alone in implementing ambitious policies – respectively, incurring social and economic costs – to reduce GHG emissions.

Protecting Rights in Climate Change Litigation before European Courts

This article examines the scope for holding States to account for their failure to tackle dangerous climate change by bringing cases before regional European courts. We examine recent developments that demonstrate the difficulties faced by lawyers and activists when pursuing climate change related claims before the Court of Justice of the European Union. We then turn to consider cases filed before the European Court of Human Rights, the hurdles they are likely to face and the comparatively better prospect that this Court will grapple with the merits of a rights-based climate complaint.

Beyond good intentions, to urgent action: Former UNFCCC leaders take stock of thirty years of international climate change negotiations

ABSTRACT The authors, who have all held senior positions in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat, take critical stock of what has been achieved since the negotiations were launched 30 years ago in December 1990. The assessment is made against seven functions or roles of multilateral processes (e.g. developing international law, setting goals, and supporting developing countries), and based on clear-eyed expectations of what multilateralism can and cannot do in a world of sovereign states and powerful economic interests. The authors point to some important successes, but also serious shortcomings, particularly in terms of failure of governments to deliver on agreed goals, and inadequate action and coordination within the UN system. The authors conclude that continuing at the pace of the last 30 years is unthinkable. Key policy insights The international climate change negotiations have successfully delivered three landmark treaties, providing the basis for a coherent international response to the climate crisis, but their impact is constrained by the realities of the multilateral system. Particular successes include the climate treaties’ goals – especially the UNFCCC’s ultimate objective and Paris Agreement’s temperature rise thresholds and ‘global net zero’ target – systems for data sharing and transparency and growing engagement of stakeholders. The principal shortcoming is failure by governments to fully implement treaty obligations, exacerbated by the still inadequate response of the business community. The rate of global emission growth over the 30-year period testifies to this failure, with the levels of support to developing countries also falling short of what is required. The principal role of the multilateral climate change negotiations must now be to promote full implementation of agreed commitments and ensuing national actions. Maximum use should be made of every mandated deadline. International agreement on clear and precise targets for 2030 and 2050 will be important, but only if accompanied by strong and specific policies. ‘Business as usual’ in climate change negotiations will mean failure to avoid dangerous climate change. Fuller engagement by leaders is crucial to ensuring an all-of-government approach. The UNFCCC process should address its unwieldiness and act in line with the urgency of the issue.

Enabling Global Climate Markets to have More Impact: Networked Emissions Trading Using Disruptive Technologies

Fundamental behavioural change, including in the way many if not most economic activities are conducted, is necessary if dangerous anthropogenic climate change is to be avoided by holding global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels in accordance with the Paris Agreement. Carbon pricing is integral to bringing about this behavioural change and embedding a price or cost for carbon in economic activities is essential. An initial step to achieve this would be to build a global, or even international, carbon market through which a stable carbon price or price range could be established. Given the ever increasing urgency of the need for concrete and effective action, yet the ever decreasing timeframe in which to do so, the Earth’s atmosphere cannot afford the luxury of many further years to reach acceptable, negotiated, compromise agreements that may or may not, ultimately, make any real difference to anthropogenic impact on the climate: innovative approaches and thinking are needed now. This article posits three illustrations: first, that individual domestic carbon markets be networked rather than linked and how this can happen without delay; second, distributed ledger technology exists to make systems work better and more efficiently and needs to be applied: central bankers have a role to play here by expediting the development and operational implementation of central bank digital currencies that will enable realisation of the full benefits that disruptive technologies can bring to a global carbon market; and third, as the role of Mark Carney, UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance demonstrates, central bankers can have a bigger role to play: they need to apply the immense influence at their disposal as custodians of the global financial system, grasp the nettle, and help embed a price for carbon in economic activities.

Toward Better Estimates of the Cost of Climate Change Mitigation: Guidelines for Studying Potential Health Benefits.

Toward Better Estimates of the Cost of Climate Change Mitigation: Guidelines for Studying Potential Health Benefits.

The Hoge Raad judgment of 20 December 2019 in the Urgenda case: an overcautious policy for reducing GHG emissions breaches Articles 2 and 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights

The judgment of the Hoge Raad (hereafter HR) given on 20 December 2019 in the Urgenda case upheld the Court of Appeal judgment of 9 October 2018 ruling on a collective interest action brought by the Urgenda Foundation on behalf of 886 Dutch citizens objecting to the inadequacy of measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Netherlands. The HR largely endorsed the particularly detailed advisory opinions delivered on 13 September 2019 by Procurator General F.F. Langemeijer and Advocate General M.H. Wissink. The HR judgment is of particular interest in view of the personal, temporal and substantive scope of Articles 2 and 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (hereafter ECHR). In recent years there has been an increasing debate on the link between climate change and positive obligations of a preventive nature that are incumbent upon States under human rights law. In the landmark Urgenda case, the HR held that, given the severity of the impact of climate change, the Dutch State is subject to a duty of care in accordance with Articles 2 (right to life) and 8 (right to privacy and family life) ECHR, which have direct effect, and is required to adopt mitigating measures. These measures must involve a 25% reduction of GHG emissions by the end of 2020, instead of the government's projected reduction of 20%. This target is deemed to be necessary so as to limit the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere to 450 ppm in order to prevent the dangerous climate change that would be associated with any temperature rise in excess of 2°C.

Trends and drivers of African fossil fuel CO2 emissions 1990–2017

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to be net-zero by midcentury. Such a goal will require both drastically reducing emissions from high-income countries and avoiding large increases in emissions from still-developing countries. Yet most analyses focus on rich-country emissions reductions, with much less attention to trends in low-income countries. Here, we use a Kaya framework to analyze patterns and trends in CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels in Africa between 1990 and 2017. In total, African CO2 emissions were just 4% of global fossil fuel emissions in 2017, or 1185 MtCO2, having grown by 4.6% yr−1 on average over the period 1990–2017 (cf the global growth rate of 2.2% yr−1 over the same period). In 2017, 10 countries accounted for about 87% of the continent’s emissions. Despite modest recent reductions in some countries’ CO2 emissions, projections of rapid growth of population and per capita GDP will drive future increases in emissions. Indeed, if the continent-wide average growth rate of 2010–2017 persists, by 2030 Africa’s emissions will have risen by ∼30% (to 1545 MtCO2). Moreover, if increases in carbon intensity also continue, Africa’s emissions would be substantially higher. In either case, such growth is at odds with international climate goals. Achieving such goals will require that the energy for African countries’ development instead come from non-emitting sources.

An Unfought Geoscience Battle in U.S. Prisons

Prisoners, activists, and lawyers are fighting to protect incarcerated people from pollution and the dangers of climate change. There’s a place for geoscientists in the fight too.

State of the Netherlands v. Urgenda Foundation

The judgment in State of the Netherlands v. Urgenda Foundation marks one of the first successful challenges to climate change policy based on a human rights treaty. In this case, the Dutch Supreme Court upheld the lower court's opinion that the Netherlands has a positive obligation under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to take reasonable and suitable measures for the prevention of climate change. Although the Supreme Court recognized that climate change is a consequence of collective human activities that cannot be solved by one state on its own, it held that the Netherlands is individually responsible for failing to do its part to counter the danger of climate change, which, as the Court affirmed, inhibits enjoyment of ECHR rights. In reaching that conclusion, the Supreme Court determined the exact level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction that the Netherlands is required to meet to comply with its ECHR obligation, specifically, a 25 percent reduction compared to its 1990 level by the end of 2020.