Damage Risk Assessment Research Articles

Sports training injury risk assessment combined with dynamic analysis algorithm

To explore the application of dynamic analysis algorithm in sports training injury risk assessment, this paper takes the Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (ST-GCN) as the main algorithm, and introduces the Adaptive Graph Convolution Module (AGCM) and Residual Channel Attention Module (RCAM). ST-GCN is improved to form AGCM + RCAM-ST-GCN (ARST-GCN) motion posture recognition algorithm. Meanwhile, combined with the extreme gradient boosting (XG Boost), the final physical training injury risk assessment model is formed. The performance of the improved ARST-GCN and the proposed damage risk assessment model is verified by experiments. The results show that ARST-GCN, which combines AGCM and RCAM modules, performs best in all indicators. Compared with ST-GCN, the accuracy rate is increased by 1.94% and the F1 value is increased by 4.3%. In addition, in the performance comparison of different sports injury risk models, the recall rate and F2 value of XGBoost are 0.937 and 0.893, respectively, and the overall performance is the best, indicating that XGBoost has significant advantages in dealing with sports injury risk assessment (SIRA) tasks. The research results provide theoretical basis and practical reference for injury prevention in sports training, and help to improve the accuracy and reliability of SIRA.

Health risk assessment of toxic metals and DNA damage in somatic and germ cells by soil and groundwater of a major cement factory in Nigeria.

The waste generated from cement manufacturing is an important source of heavy metal contamination of groundwater and soil. This study investigated the concentration of toxic metals in the soil of a major cement factory and nearby groundwater. Ecological and carcinogenic risks of the metals were calculated. Potential reproductive toxicity and genotoxic effects of the samples were assessed in sex and somatic cells of male mice using sperm abnormalities and bone marrow micronucleus (MN) assays, respectively. Also, the serum ALP, ALT, AST, Total Testosterone (TT), Luteinizing Hormone (LH), and Follicle Stimulating Hormone (FSH); and liver SOD and CAT activities were measured in the treated mice. Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, Mn, Cd, and Pb levels in the soil and groundwater exceeded the allowable maximum standard. Ingestion and dermal contact were the most probable routes of human exposure with children having about three times higher probability of exposure to the metals than the adults. Ni, Pb, and Cr presented carcinogenic risks in children and adults. In the MN result, nuclear abnormalities in the studied mice especially micronucleated polychromatic erythrocytes increased significantly (p < 0.05). Compared to the negative control, the ratio of PCE/NCE showed the cytotoxicity of the two samples. Data further showed a significant increase in the serum ALP, AST, and ALT while the liver CAT and SOD activities concomitantly decreased in the exposed mice. Sperm morphology result showed that the samples contained constituents capable of inducing reproductive toxicity in exposed organisms, with alterations to the concentrations of TT, LH, and FSH. Toxic metal constituents of the samples were believed to induce these reported reproductive toxicity and genotoxic effect. These results showed the environmental pollution caused by cement factory and the potential effects the pollutants might have on exposed eukaryotic organisms.

Inundation Processes with Active Sediment Transportation in the Floodplain of West Rapti River, Nepal

The present study discusses flood hazard characteristics in the lower reaches of the West Rapti River based on the results obtained from field surveys and numerical computations using depth averaged 2-D numerical models for flood flow and associated sediment transportation. To evaluate the inundation process with sediment erosion and deposition in the floodplain, a new erosion term was introduced into the mass conservation equations for suspended sediment and bed sediment. The results obtained from numerical computations indicated that field data on the spatial distributions of depths for inundation, and sediment erosion and deposition can be evaluated by the numerical model. Thus, numerical predictions were performed for the inundated areas, and the accumulated volumes of sediment erosion/deposition for floods with return periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, as a step towards damage assessment and risk assessment due to floods with active sediment transportation in the floodplains.

Assessing the impact of the 2021 flood event on the archaeological heritage of the Rhineland (Germany)

BackgroundArchaeological sites are increasingly threatened by climate-related hazards. In response, heritage management authorities initiated projects to document damage and plan risk assessment measures. We present a project initiated after the heavy rainfall and subsequent flood event of July 2021, which involved extensive fieldwork to document the damage to archaeological sites in the Rhineland. We use this database to characterise and assess the damage and investigate site-specific and geospatial factors to identify potential predictive parameters for site damage.ResultsDuring fieldwork, we found that the flood damaged 19% of the 538 archaeological sites surveyed. The majority of damaged sites are relatively recent, dating from the medieval or modern periods, and are associated with the use of water power. Damage was mainly caused by erosion, floating debris and washout, e.g. mortar. In a case study, we tested the option of comparing pre- and post-disaster Airborne Laser Scanning elevation data to identify damages. It showed that not only the damage detected during fieldwork was found but also additional areas of loss. In general, however, and quantified based on the entire dataset, the ordnance survey Airborne Laser Scanning data were of limited use for monitoring flood-related damage and could not replace fieldwork. Our statistical analysis of possible risk factors, including both site characteristics and geospatial parameters, using Naïve Bayes Modelling and chi-squared tests, showed that no set of parameters could consistently predict the preservation or damage of archaeological sites across all catchments. In contrast, some external geospatial factors correlated with the occurrence of damage.ConclusionsThe study highlights both the strengths and limitations of the approaches used to assess and predict the damage to the archaeological heritage in the 2021 flood zones of the Rhineland. It also demonstrates the complexity of the data and spatial processes involved, which limits generalisation but can still inform decision-making for archaeological site management and on-site protection measures in flood-prone areas. With the prospect of more frequent heavy rainfall due to climate change, the specific needs of the archaeological heritage should be integrated into broader prevention and disaster management plans.

Study on the Extension of Critical Zones Along Tunnel Alignments and Its Impact on Structural Damage to Nearby Buildings

When tunnelling in urban environment, tunnels are unavoidably excavated in close proximity of neighbouring buildings. It is inevitable that tunnels will interact with building foundations and other existing infrastructures. Consequently, ground movements produced by tunnel works and namely settlement, can cause serious damage to existing buildings. The objective of this study is to investigate the critical area in terms of ground movements produced by tunnelling by using the gaussian distribution function which is the most famous approach used in practice engineering for studying settlements induced by tunnel excavation, combined with conventional damage risk assessment approach based on limit value of highest settlement.

Multistate Probabilistic Assessment of Third-Party Damage Risk for Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on DEMATEL-ISM-Røed-BN

Multistate Probabilistic Assessment of Third-Party Damage Risk for Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on DEMATEL-ISM-Røed-BN

Correction: Observed damage and simplified risk assessment of Italian masonry bell towers struck by past seismic events

Correction: Observed damage and simplified risk assessment of Italian masonry bell towers struck by past seismic events

Evaluation of the Safety and Efficacy of Coronary Intervention through the Brachial Artery Compared to the Radial Artery in Elderly Patients with Different Extubation Times

Introduction: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is an important treatment for acute coronary syndrome. The main puncture paths of PCI include radial artery, brachial artery, and femoral artery. The aim of this study was to investigate the safety and efficacy of transbrachial intervention in elderly patients. Methods: According to intraoperative and postoperative nursing records, a retrospective analysis was performed for 70 elderly patients who underwent coronary intervention were divided into brachial artery A group (33 cases) and brachial artery B group (37 cases) according to immediate postoperative extubation compression dressing and 6 hours postoperative extubation compression dressing, and matched elderly patients who had successful transradial artery puncture in the same period as radial artery group (35 cases). The success rate of puncture and catheterization, arterial puncture time, total operation time, length of hospital stay, patient comfort score, incidence of arterial spasm and occlusion, subcutaneous ecchymosis and hematoma, epidermal blister occurrence, vagal reflex, pseudoaneurysm development, arteriovenous fistula formation, nerve damage risk assessment and osteofascial compartment syndrome were compared. Results: Compared with the radial artery group, the brachial artery group (group A and group B) had a higher success rate of puncture and catheterization (97.0% vs. 97.3% vs. 80.0%, p = 0.013), shorter arterial puncture time (2.45 ± 0.38 vs. 2.40 ± 0.35 vs. 3.40 ± 0.37, p = 0.000), and lower incidence of arterial spasm (0.0% vs. 0.0% vs. 34.3%, p = 0.000), arterial occlusion (0.0% vs. 0.0% vs. 14.3%, p = 0.005) and puncture site bleeding (12.1% vs. 5.6% vs. 40.0%, p = 0.001). The incidence of epidermal blister was higher in brachial artery A group than in brachial artery B group (24.2% vs. 2.7%, p = 0.003) or radial artery group (24.2% vs. 0%, p = 0.001), and the incidence of epidermal blister in brachial artery B group and radial artery group was not much different. There was no difference between the three groups in total operation time, length of hospital stay, comfort score, subcutaneous ecchymosis and hematoma, vagal reflex, pseudoaneurysm, arteriovenous fistula, nerve damage and osteofascial compartment syndrome. Conclusion: In elderly patients, coronary intervention through brachial artery is not inferior to radial artery.

Observed damage and simplified risk assessment of Italian masonry bell towers struck by past seismic events

Observed damage and simplified risk assessment of Italian masonry bell towers struck by past seismic events

A Bayesian benchmark concentration analysis for urinary fluoride and intelligence in adults in Guizhou, China

Environmental fluoride exposure has been linked to numerous cases of fluorosis worldwide. Previous studies have indicated that long-term exposure to fluoride can result in intellectual damage among children. However, a comprehensive health risk assessment of fluorosis-induced intellectual damage is still pending. In this research, we utilized the Bayesian Benchmark Dose Analysis System (BBMD) to investigate the dose-response relationship between urinary fluoride (U-F) concentration and Raven scores in adults from Nayong, Guizhou, China. Our research findings indecate a dose-response relationship between the concentration of U-F and intelligence scores in adults. As the benchmark response (BMR) increased, both the benchmark concentration (BMCs) and the lower bound of the credible interval (BMCLs) increased. Specifically, BMCs for the association between U-F and IQ score were determined to be 0.18 mg/L (BMCL1 = 0.08 mg/L), 0.91 mg/L (BMCL5 = 0.40 mg/L), 1.83 mg/L (BMCL10 = 0.83 mg/L) when using BMRs of 1 %, 5 %, and 10 %. These results indicate that U-F can serve as an effective biomarker for monitoring the loss of IQ in population. We propose three interim targets for public policy in preventing interllectual harm from fluoride exposure.

Post-2023 Türkiye earthquake risk assessment of cascade dams in upper Euphrates basin

The southeastern region of Türkiye faced two significant earthquakes on February 6, 2023, causing widespread destruction and substantial damage to various infrastructures. Over forty large dams in the region were affected, leading to potential new earthquake-prone areas due to energy accumulation in neighboring regions. This study focuses on the seismic risk of eight cascade dams on the Peri River, a tributary of the Euphrates main river, following these earthquakes. The dams, including Kalecik, Kigi, Konaktepe, Ozluce, Pempelik, Seyrantepe, Tatar, and Uzuncayir, with heights ranging from 31 m to 146 m, are situated in a region influenced by the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The research advocates for a comprehensive re-analysis of certain large dams, considering the updated seismic specifications and seismological maps of Türkiye. The study explores the hazard and overall risk assessment of these dams, emphasizing the cascade system and highlighting the critical seismic vulnerabilities of Kigi and Ozluce dams, with a particular focus on their implications for water security in the region. Our findings underscore the need for tailored safety measures for each dam, focusing on early defect detection. By adopting a proactive stance and implementing our recommendations, the resilience of these dams can be enhanced, contributing to the overall water security of the region.

Risk assessment of emergency route damage induced by soil liquefaction

Risk assessment of emergency route damage induced by soil liquefaction

Polystyrene micro- and nanoplastics induce gastric toxicity through ROS mediated oxidative stress and P62/Keap1/Nrf2 pathway

Microplastics (MPs) exist widely in the environment and can enter the human body indirectly through the food chain or directly through inhalation or ingestion. The primary organ that MPs contaminated food or water enters the human body through the digestive tract is the stomach. However, at present, the effects of MPs on the stomach and the related mechanism remain unclear. In this study, our results indicated that 50 nm and 250 nm polystyrene MPs (PS-MPs) at environmental related dose significantly decreased stomach organ coefficient, inhibited gastric juice secretion and mucus secretion, disrupted gastric barrier function and suppressed antioxidant ability in mice. In vitro experiments showed that PS-MPs inhibited cell viability, increased ROS generation, and induced apoptosis through mitochondria-dependent pathway. Simultaneously, PS-MPs also decreased mitochondrial membrane potential, ATP level, disrupted mitochondrial kinetic homeostasis, and activated P62 / Nrf2 / Keap1 pathway. Furthermore, blocking ROS (NAC) partially alleviated ROS and apoptosis caused by PS-MPs. Based on above findings, the potential adverse outcome pathway (AOP) of PS-MPs-caused gastric toxicity was proposed which provides a new insight into the risk assessment of MP related gastric damage. Our study unveils the gastric injury induced by PS MPs is dependent on ROS - mediated P62 / Nrf2 / Keap1 signaling pathway, and provides scientific basis for further exploration the mechanism of gastric toxicity of PS MPs.

Methods of calculation and engineering protection of critical infrastructure objects and other strategic facilities against long-range projectiles

Relevance. One of the key areas of russia's military operations against Ukraine is the destruction of critical infrastructure objects (CIO) of strategic importance. The main types of enemy means for air strikes on CIO are air-launched, ground-launched and water-launched missiles, as well as barrage munitions. The vast majority of the CIO were built in Ukraine above ground, without any engineering structural protection systems to counter air threats, explosions or other impacts related to military operations. The importance of developing the most effective methods of engineering structural protection of the CIO from various types of projectiles as soon as possible was demonstrated by the experience of Ukraine's war with russia, in particular, the analysis of the significant impact of damage to the CIO in the energy sector. At present, Ukraine has a certain lack of regulatory data for designing reliable protective structures for CIO. The aim of this work is to develop a regulatory base for making calculations for the possible impact of various types of forceful effects from air strikes, terrorist attacks, etc. when designing the CIO and other strategic facilities. Currently, the issue of organising the defence of critical infrastructure and other strategic objects is being systematically addressed on the basis of the "Country-Fortress" principle, which provides for the organisation of echeloned air defence combined with comprehensive civil and engineering defence measures. In addition, it is necessary to provide for the reliable protection of existing facilities, taking into account the hazards and threats of today. The process of reducing the risks of damage to the CIO involves identifying threats, their comprehensive assessment, developing measures to reduce threats and their prompt implementation, followed by an assessment of the measures effectiveness. Results. The presented methods of risk assessment of critical infrastructure damage, methods of their engineering and analytical calculations and methods of engineering structural protection against ammunition of various types allow developing an effective integrated system of protection of strategically important objects. The article deals with both the protection of existing facilities and the design of new ones, taking into account the requirements for engineering protection and civil defence.

Effects of Creep on Shield Tunnelling Through Squeezing Ground

The present work aims to improve the reliability of shield jamming and lining damage risk assessment in squeezing ground by analysing the effects of creep on the evolution of rock pressure over time. The study is based on numerical simulations of typical mechanised tunnelling processes, generally consisting of shield advance phases alternating with shorter or longer standstills for lining installation, maintenance, etc. A linear elastic—viscous plastic constitutive model based upon Perzyna’s overstress theory is employed, which considers the time-dependency of plastic deformations via a single viscosity parameter. The investigations demonstrate the following: (i) shield loading during advance increases with increasing viscosity under certain conditions, which contradicts the common perception in many existing works that creep is thoroughly favourable for shield jamming; (ii) creep is thoroughly unfavourable for shield loading during long standstills and long-term lining loading, due to the additional viscoplastic ground deformations manifested over time; (iii) the commonly adopted simplifying assumption of continuous excavation with the gross advance rate is adequate only where standstills are very short (e.g., for lining erection during the stop-and-go shield tunnelling process), but otherwise underestimates the shield loading, even in cases of regular inspection and maintenance standstills lasting only a few hours. Two application examples, the Fréjus safety gallery and the Gotthard Base tunnel, demonstrate the need to consider creep and the accuracy of modelling tunnel construction by a semi-discrete approach, where only the very short standstills for lining erection are considered via an average advance rate, but longer standstills are explicitly simulated.

Safety design study for energy harvesters

Modern offshore and onshore green energy engineering includes energy harvesting—as a result, extensive experimental investigations, as well as safety and reliability analysis are crucial for design and engineering. For this study, several wind-tunnel experiments under realistic in situ wind speed conditions have been conducted to examine the performance of galloping energy harvester. Next, a novel structural reliability approach is presented here that is especially well suited for multi-dimensional energy harvesting systems that have been either numerically simulated or analog observed during the representative time lapse, yielding an ergodic system time record. As demonstrated in this study, the advocated methodology may be used for risk assessment of dynamic system structural damage or failure. Furthermore, traditional reliability methodologies dealing with time series do not easily cope with the system’s high dimensionality, along with nonlinear cross-correlations between the system’s components. This study’s objective was to assess state-of-the-art reliability method, allowing efficient extraction of relevant statistical information, even from a limited underlying dataset. The methodology described in this study aims to assist designers when assessing nonlinear multidimensional dynamic energy harvesting system’s failure and hazard risks.

Assessing the health risks of coal-burning arsenic-induced skin damage: A 22-year follow-up study in Guizhou, China

Risk assessment of arsenic-induced skin damage has always received significant global attention. Theories derived from arsenic exposure in drinking water may not be applicable to the coal-burning type to arsenic-exposed area. Furthermore, very few studies have successfully determined the reference value of cumulative arsenic (CA) exposure that leads to specific skin lesions. In this study, we conducted a 22-year follow-up investigation to assess the risk of skin lesions and cancer resulting from long-term, multi-channel arsenic exposure from hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The results show that the arsenic exposure can significantly increase the prevalence of skin lesions. For each interquartile range increase of hair arsenic (HA) and CA, the risk of skin damage increased by 1.91 and 3.90 times, respectively. The lower confidence limit of the benchmark dose of HA of arsenic-induced various skin lesions ranged from 0.07 to 0.12 μg·g−1, and 932.57 to 1368.92 mg for CA. The chronic daily intake, lifetime average daily dose in the arsenic-exposed area after the comprehensive prevention and control measures have decreased significantly, but remained higher than the daily baseline level of 3.0 μg·kg−1·d−1. Even as recently as 2020, the hazard quotients and hazard index still exceeded 1, measuring 155.33 and 55.20, and the lifetime excess risk of skin cancer (2.80 × 10−3) remains significantly higher than the acceptable level of 10−6. Our study underscores the effectiveness of comprehensive prevention and control measures in managing high arsenic exposure in coal-burning arsenic poisoning areas. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the risk of both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects on the skin remains substantially higher than the acceptable level. We recommend setting reference limits for monitoring skin damage among individuals exposed to arsenic, with a recommended upper limit of 0.07 μg·g−1 for HA and a maximum acceptable level of 935.57 mg for CA.

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Risk for Railway Bridges Based on Machine Learning

When an earthquake occurs, railway bridges will suffer from different degrees of seismic damage, and it is necessary to assess the seismic risk of bridges. Unfortunately, the majority of studies were done on highway bridges without taking into account railway bridge characteristics; hence they are not applicable to railway bridges. Furthermore, current research methods for risk assessment cannot be performed quickly, and suffer from the problems of subjective personal experience, complicated calculations, and time-consuming. This paper we use machine learning for earthquake damage prediction and empirical vulnerability curves to represent risk assessment results, creating a rapid risk assessment procedure. We gathered and tallied seismic damage data from 335 railway bridges that were damaged in the Tangshan and Menyuan earthquakes, found six variables that had a substantial impact on seismic risk outcomes, and categorized the damage levels into five categories. It is essentially a multi-classification and prediction problem. In order to solve this problem, four algorithms were tested: Random Forest (RF) Back Propagation Artiifcial Neural Network (BP-ANN), PSO-Support Vector Machine (PSO-SVM), and K Nearest Neighbor (KNN). It was found that RF is the most effective method, with an accuracy rate of up to 93.31% for the training set and 89.39% for the test set. Then this study describes the new procedure in detail for rapidly assessing seismic risk to 269 bridges chosen at random from the sample pool. Firstly, the seismic damage data of bridges are collated, then the seismic damage rating is predicted using RF, and finally the empirical vulnerability curve is drawn using a two-parameter normal distribution function for the purpose of seismic damage risk assessment. The study’s findings can be used as a guide for choosing a machine learning approach and its inputs to build a rapid assessment model for railway bridges.

Bird pecking damage risk assessment of UHV transmission line composite insulators based on deep learning

AbstractHere, a method for assessing the risk of bird pecking damage of composite insulators in ultra high voltage (UHV) lines is proposed using electric field (E‐field) simulation and deep learning. The distribution of E‐field on composite insulators is analysed via numerical simulation for different damage locations and damage sizes. Then, using the defective images of composite insulator strings captured in real inspection environments, the corresponding annotation image data set is constructed according to the finite element calculation results of E‐field under different damage conditions, and through the application of the YOLOX deep learning neural network, the risk assessment of the damage caused by bird pecking of insulators for UHV lines is conducted. Furthermore, to prevent overfitting of YOLOX with small‐scale images, transfer learning, as well as data enhancement, are applied to the YOLOX training process. According to the results, the mean average precision (mAP) of the model is 0.79, indicating that it is capable of high accuracy recognition, provides guidance for operation and maintenance personnel.

Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: Methods and Approaches for Damage and Risk Assessment Addressed to a Practical Application

In the last 20 years, research on the observed and projected impacts of climate change on cultural heritage has led to significant developments regarding damage quantification and risk assessment, which unfortunately are not yet exhaustively transferred to practical applications and to the sector of policy and decision making. One of the major reasons for this still lacking alignment remains with the inadequate handover of quantitative data, which is a prerequisite for the development of measures and strategies for the mitigation of the impacts and risk reduction. In this paper, we focus on the methods and approaches put in place for the production of projections providing quantitative assessments of climate change-induced impacts in the near and far future (up to the 21st century) on outdoor built heritage mainly constituted by stone and stone-like materials. Our critical study found that different approaches have been applied for quantifying slow cumulative damage due to the ongoing variations of climate and air pollution parameters and to risk assessment caused by hydrometeorological extreme events induced by variations of temperature and precipitation. There is clear evidence that efforts are still needed for directing research to provide concrete solutions and tools addressed to meet the requirements of stakeholders and to solve the existing challenges in the field: selected effective models and tools are illustrated. The discussion is structured in order to highlight the driving role of research in supporting the definition of priorities for heritage managers and the development of strategies by decision and policy makers for the prevention and safeguarding of cultural heritage at risk.