To dynamical study of the dams, the prediction of occurred deformation caused by hydrostatic and hydrodynamic pressures during the operation phase as well as the designing phase is necessary. The reservoir water changes also the permanent variations of atmospheric temperature especially in the areas where there are significant seasonal and circadian changes in conditions are important factors to “dynamic system” of the dams. The aim of this paper is to present an applied dynamic method to identify the body of the dam as a dynamic system and to predict its behavior in the variable environmental conditions based on the monitoring observations. Non-parametric methods such as cross-covariance and coherence method are applied for system identification of the dam based on time series of input signal of measured forces and output signal of deformation measurements. The main feature of this paper is using the weighting function method which enables “System Identification” of the dam as a dynamic system, to model the deformation of the dam. The applied weighting function method benefits from measurements of effective factors on system of the dam also the deformation monitoring measurements from different sensors. For practical applicability of the method for a dam, Masjed–Soleiman “earth–dam” in Iran has been chosen. A wide range of instruments has been installed inside the dam to control the deformation; therefore multiple measurements are available for analysis. Since changing atmospheric temperature has not an important role in geotechnical study of an earth-dam singly, the authors decided to investigate the environmental condition such as atmospheric temperature and reservoir water-level changes as input signal to the “dam-sensors-combination” system. Here the authors carried out their investigation using seven epochs of geodetic measurements between 2000 and 2008, moreover the measurements of four anchors inside an installed rod-extensometer between 2007 and 2013, settlement observations on settlement-plates in different levels between 2008 and 2013, and a long-time series of the daily observations of three installed soil-extensometers between 2005 and 2013. A significant correlation between temperature changes and soil-extensometer observations has been determined, besides the coherence method leads to common periods of 351 days between input and output time series. The weighting function method is applied to model the deformation of the dam using deformation measurements of installed soil-extensometer with temperature and water-level changes as effective sources. The RMS of difference between the estimated dam deformations from weighting function model compared to original measurements was calculated at 0.039 mm also from the point of correlation the original deformation measurements and modeled deformations are correlated at 95 %. The RMS of the difference between measurements and the predicted dam deformations using the weighting function model was calculated at 0.057 mm leading to a correlation value of 91 %. If the absolute values are transformed in percentage of the deformation, the maximum error of prediction is 10 %. The results show the success of weighting function method to model the deformation observations of the dam affected by input factors. One of the most important achievements of this paper is to draw a distinction between temperature as a systematic error sources and the other effective factors on the settlement observations of the earth-dam via comparison of the results of non-parametric methods on different sensors.
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