Using the numerical model developed in a previous paper [Υamamoto et al. (2002c) J. Plankton Res., 24, 33-47], the sensitivity of population dynamics of Alexandrium tamarense to physical and biological parameters was analysed. Horizontal and vertical diffusions led to the dispersion of dense A. tamarense populations in the surface layer of the innermost portion of the bay. Temperature and salinity influenced the timing of the A. tamarense bloom due to its stenothermal and steno-haline characteristics. Although increasing the light intensity caused the bloom of A. tamarense to begin earlier, it lowered the cell density at the bloom peak as a result of phosphate depletion in the ambient water. Both increasing the cyst density and the excystment rate had little influence on the population dynamics of A. tamarense vegetative cells. Increasing the phosphate concentration led to increases in cell density of A. tamarense, indicating that growth is phosphate-limited. Oysters, which are cultured intensively in this bay, appear to stimulate the bloom of A. tamarense through the regeneration of phosphorus from their faeces/pseudofaeces. The phosphorus reduction measure that has been taken since 1980 and the recent construction of a large dam are discussed as important factors that may influence the population dynamics of A. tamarense.
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