Cyclonic Vorticity Research Articles

An Observational Analysis of the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Vortex Tilt, Precipitation Structure, and Intensity Change

Abstract This study uses a recently developed airborne Doppler radar database to explore how vortex misalignment is related to tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation structure and intensity change. It is found that for relatively weak TCs, defined here as storms with a peak 10-m wind of 65 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or less, the magnitude of vortex tilt is closely linked to the rate of subsequent TC intensity change, especially over the next 12–36 h. In strong TCs, defined as storms with a peak 10-m wind greater than 65 kt, vortex tilt magnitude is only weakly correlated with TC intensity change. Based on these findings, this study focuses on how vortex tilt is related to TC precipitation structure and intensity change in weak TCs. To illustrate how the TC precipitation structure is related to the magnitude of vortex misalignment, weak TCs are divided into two groups: small-tilt and large-tilt TCs. In large-tilt TCs, storms display a relatively large radius of maximum wind, the precipitation structure is asymmetric, and convection occurs more frequently near the midtropospheric TC center than the lower-tropospheric TC center. Alternatively, small-tilt TCs exhibit a greater areal coverage of precipitation inward of a relatively small radius of maximum wind. Greater rates of TC intensification, including rapid intensification, are shown to occur preferentially for TCs with greater vertical alignment and storms in relatively favorable environments. Significance Statement Accurately predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is challenging. This is particularly true for storms that undergo rapid intensity changes. Recent numerical modeling studies have suggested that vortex vertical alignment commonly precedes the onset of rapid intensification; however, this consensus is not unanimous. Until now, there has not been a systematic observational analysis of the relationship between vortex misalignment and TC intensity change. This study addresses this gap using a recently developed airborne radar database. We show that the degree of vortex misalignment is a useful predictor for TC intensity change, but primarily for weak storms. In these cases, more aligned TCs exhibit precipitation patterns that favor greater intensification rates. Future work should explore the causes of changes in vortex alignment.

Influence of the magnetic field and the mean flow configuration on spatial structure and growth rate of normal modes

The first part of the work presents the results of numerical experiments with the magnetohydrodynamic model of “shallow water” to assess the degree of influence of the magnetic field on the development of instabilities conditioned by a combination of inhomogeneities in the mean flow and the mean magnetic field. Normal mode calculations have confirmed the earlier obtained result on the different influence of weak and strong magnetic fields on the instability of differential rotation. Calculations have shown that a weak magnetic field stabilizes the development of instabilities, whereas a strong magnetic field, on the contrary, enhances the instability. Azimuthal inhomogeneities of differential rotation in all cases contribute to the development of instabilities. In the second part of the work, we examine the spatial structure of normal modes and make an attempt to interpret the torsional oscillations observed in the atmospheres of Earth and the Sun. Calculations have shown that regular axisymmetric disturbances can be caused by the formation of a cyclonic vortex above the pole, which is characteristic of Earth's atmosphere and, possibly, of the Sun's atmosphere. The least damped normal mode of a stable polar cyclone has a structure of torsional oscillations. Flow anomalies and the development of an anticyclonic eddy in winter at midlatitudes destroy torsional oscillations and lead to a rapid amplification of normal modes, which are more complex in structure.

Влияние магнитного поля и конфигурации среднего течения на пространственную структуру и скорость роста нормальных мод

The first part of the work presents the results of numerical experiments with the magnetohydrodynamic model of “shallow water” to assess the degree of influence of the magnetic field on the development of instabilities conditioned by a combination of inhomogeneities in the mean flow and the mean magnetic field. Numerical simulation of normal modes has confirmed the earlier obtained result on the different influence of weak and strong magnetic fields on the instability of differential rotation. Calculations have shown that a weak magnetic field stabilizes the development of instabilities, whereas a strong magnetic field, on the contrary, enhances the instability. Azimuthal inhomogeneities of differential rotation in all cases contribute to the development of instabilities. In the second part of the work, we examine the spatial structure of normal modes and make an attempt to interpret the torsional oscillations observed in the atmospheres of Earth and the Sun. Calculations have shown that regular axisymmetric disturbances (torsional oscillations) can be caused by the formation of a cyclonic vortex above the pole, which is characteristic of Earth’s atmosphere and, possibly, of the Sun’s atmosphere. The least damped normal mode of a stable polar cyclone has a structure of torsional oscillations. Flow anomalies and the development of an anticyclonic eddy in winter at midlatitudes destroy torsional oscillations and lead to a rapid amplification of normal modes, which are more complex in structure.

Opposite Skills of ENGPI and DGPI in Depicting Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Western North Pacific

Abstract The genesis potential index (GPI) has been used widely to estimate the influence of large-scale conditions on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis. Here we find that two GPIs, the Emanuel–Nolan GPI (ENGPI) and the dynamic GPI (DGPI), show opposite skills in quantifying decadal variability of TC genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP). During 1979–2020, ENGPI shows a reverse decadal variation to the WNP TC genesis with a significant negative correlation of −0.61, while DGPI can reasonably reproduce the decadal variation of the WNP TC genesis with a significant correlation of 0.66. The opposite skills of the two indices arise from the opposed effects of dynamic and thermodynamic parameters on TC genesis induced by a WNP anomalous cyclonic circulation that controls the decadal variation of TC genesis. On the one hand, the cyclonic circulation leads to favorable dynamical conditions including ascending motion, cyclonic vorticity, and weakened vertical shear, and thus tends to increase the DGPI. On the other hand, the cyclonic circulation leads to unfavorable thermodynamical conditions (decreased maximum potential intensity and midlevel humidity) that tends to decrease the ENGPI. As a result, the DGPI and ENGPI are reversely evolved and eventually lead to their opposite correlation between TC genesis. The significant positive correlation between DGPI and TC genesis suggests a critical role in the large-scale dynamical control of the decadal variability of the WNP TC genesis. Significance Statement Tropical cyclones (TCs) account for one-third of the deaths and economic losses from weather-, climate-, and water-related disasters. Understanding variations in TC activity from the perspective of large-scale conditions is of great importance to seasonal forecasting and disaster mitigation. Here we find that two genesis potential indexes (GPIs), the Emanuel–Nolan GPI (ENGPI) and dynamic GPI (DGPI), show opposite skill in quantifying decadal variability of TC genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP). The opposite skills of the two indices arise from the opposed effects of dynamic and thermodynamic parameters on TC genesis. The result suggests a critical role of large-scale dynamic control in the decadal variability of TC genesis in the WNP.

Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool

Abstract. Cyclonic vortices that are weaker than tropical storm category can bring heavy precipitation as they propagate across the South China Sea and surrounding countries. Here we investigate the structure and dynamics responsible for the intensification of a Borneo vortex that moved from the north of Borneo across the South China Sea and impacted Vietnam and Thailand in late October 2018. This case study is examined using Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations and a semi-geotriptic (SGT) balance approximation tool. Satellite observations and a MetUM simulation with 4.4 km grid initialised at 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2018 show that the westward-moving vortex is characterised by a coherent maximum in total column water and by a comma-shaped precipitation structure with the heaviest rainfall to the northwest of the circulation centre. The Borneo vortex comprises a low-level cyclonic circulation and a mid-level wave embedded in the background easterly shear flow, which strengthens with height up to around 7 km. Despite being in the tropics at 6∘ N, the low-level vortex and mid-level wave are well represented by SGT balance dynamics. The mid-level wave propagates along a vertical gradient in moist stability, i.e. the product between the specific humidity and the static stability, at 4.5 to 5 km and is characterised by a coherent signature in the potential vorticity, meridional wind, and balanced vertical velocity fields. The vertical motion is dominated by coupling with diabatic heating and is shifted relative to the potential vorticity so that the diabatic wave propagates westwards, relative to the flow, at a rate consistent with prediction from moist semi-geostrophic theory. Initial vortex development at low levels is consistent with baroclinic growth initiated by the mid-level diabatic Rossby wave, which propagates on baroclinic shear flow on the southern flank of a large-scale cold surge.

An “objective” definition of potential vorticity. Generalized evolution equation and application to the study of coastal upwelling instability

In this paper, we propose a form for potential vorticity (PV), rescaled using the Lorenz’s rearranged density profile, the novelty being that we here take into account its time evolution. We argue this rescaled PV is more representative of the dynamics, in particular to evaluate the respective impact of mixing and friction on the generation of geostrophic circulation. The impact of mixing at global scale, which only modifies the global stratification at rest, is taken into account in the evolution equation of this “objective” definition of PV, in the sense that it scales the PV changes with respect to its effect on the circulation. Numerically, we show that all terms can be calculated coherently using a single computation cell.We illustrate our purpose by studying the instability of coastal upwelling currents, using a numerical model at high resolution. The configuration is a periodic flat channel on the f-plane with vertical walls at the southern and northern boundaries. A constant wind is applied over a fluid at rest with an initial linear stratification. An upwelling current forms at the northern coast. After a few days, instabilities develop and vortices eventually emerge with surface intensified cyclones and subsurface anticyclones. We show that these instabilities and eddies are associated with (rescaled) PV anomalies, triggered by mixing and friction.We describe rescaled PV budgets in a layer bounded between the surface and an isopycnal level. Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics allow to analyze irreversible PV production terms, distinguishing the influence of advection, friction (associated with wind stress) and mixing. We find that friction plays the main role, generating negative PV anomalies, while mixing acts to dampen this negative PV production. The association of this negative PV anomaly with the outcropping front leads to the baroclinic destabilization of the upwelling front, creating subsurface anticyclonic vortices and surface intensified cyclonic vortices. Varying the strength of the wind forcing shows that mixing is the most sensitive process, with a net effect that is strongly reduced or even reversed with moderate to weak winds.When the dynamics is fully turbulent, with filaments and vortices of small sizes, the PV production by mixing and friction is enhanced but the Lagrangian diagnostics are more difficult to analyze, since fluctuations at grid scale become significant and numerical effects – associated with imperfections of the numerical schemes – spoil the PV budget calculation.

A Comparison of the Impacts of Inner-Core, In-Vortex, and Environmental Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts during the 2017–20 Hurricane Seasons

Abstract This study conducts the first large-sample comparison of the impact of dropsondes in the tropical cyclone (TC) inner core, vortex, and environment on NWP-model TC forecasts. We analyze six observing-system experiments, focusing on four sensitivity experiments that denied dropsonde observations within annuli corresponding with natural breakpoints in reconnaissance sampling. These are evaluated against two other experiments detailed in a recent parallel study: one that assimilated and another that denied dropsonde observations. Experiments used a basin-scale, multistorm configuration of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model and covered active periods of the 2017–20 North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Analysis focused on forecasts initialized with dropsondes that used mesoscale error covariance derived from a cycled HWRF ensemble, as these forecasts were where dropsondes had the greatest benefits in the parallel study. Some results generally support findings of previous research, while others are novel. Most notable was that removing dropsondes anywhere, particularly from the vortex, substantially degraded forecasts of maximum sustained winds. Removing in-vortex dropsondes also degraded outer-wind-radii forecasts in many instances. As such, in-vortex dropsondes contribute to a majority of the overall impacts of the dropsonde observing system. Additionally, track forecasts of weak TCs benefited more from environmental sampling, while track forecasts of strong TCs benefited more from in-vortex sampling. Finally, inner-core-only sampling strategies should be avoided, supporting a change made to the U.S. Air Force Reserve’s sampling strategy in 2018 that added dropsondes outside of the inner core. Significance Statement This study uses a regional hurricane model to conduct the most comprehensive assessment to date of the impact of dropsondes at different distances away from the center of a tropical cyclone (TC) on TC forecasts. The main finding is that in-vortex dropsondes are most important for intensity and outer-wind-radii forecasts. Particularly notable is the impact of dropsondes on TC maximum wind speed forecasts, as reducing sampling anywhere would degrade those forecasts.

Extended Influence of Midlatitude Cyclones on Global Cold Extremes

AbstractCold temperature extremes, causing damage to industry, agriculture and human health, are often associated with midlatitude cyclones. Here, we quantify the relation between cyclones and cold extremes by highlighting two cyclone‐associated dynamical features that may, differently, induce cold extremes. Namely, slantwise‐descending dry intrusions (DIs) advect cold air equatorward into the cyclone's cold sector, and upper‐tropospheric troughs, diagnosed as cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, induce cold anomalies directly below. By objectively‐identified DI outflows and cyclonic PV anomalies for 1979–2019 in ERA5 reanalysis, their climatological association with the 5% lowest 2‐m temperature is globally quantified. We find that in midlatitudes upper PV anomalies dominate cold extremes, while DIs dominate extremes in the subtropics and even the tropics. The rare overlap between the two features can potentially act as a strong predictor for cold extremes, accompanying ∼30% of extremes at 30° latitude with local hotspots of 80%–100%.

The Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclolysis in the Western North Pacific

Abstract In the context of global climate change, recent studies indicate a poleward migration trend of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), while little attention has been paid to the TC cyclolysis (hereafter Lysis). With respect to two different datasets, this study identifies the poleward migration of the annual-mean latitude of TC Lysis during 1979–2018, being more significant for the intensified TCs, although this trend is suppressed by the reduction in the TC frequency over the sea. It is found that the TC migration is more like a poleward translation of the overall movement rather than the expansion of a specific phase’s distance span. Subsequently, the trends of several environmental parameters related to TC development are also analyzed. The large-scale sea surface temperature warming leads to the increase of potential intensity and enhances the possibility of TC poleward migration. Through controlling the TC formation in the eastern WNP tropics, the variations of vertical wind shear and horizontal winds affect TC Lysis latitude, facilitate the TC development environment around East Asia offshore and island chain areas, and steer TCs poleward migration through the southerly wind anomalies in the area north of 30°N. Regarding the cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, their influence on TC Lysis latitude is mainly by adjusting the numbers of TCs rather than directly interfering with the TC movement process. The present results indicate that the northern WNP coastal region will also become a TC-prone area in the future, which needs to be treated with caution.

Analysis of localized features during wet and dry rainfall episodes over southern tip of India

AbstractThe large spatial and temporal variability of wet and dry spells of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) poses the great challenge in understanding and predicting monsoonal rainfall. This challenge is further exacerbated over smaller regions, such as the southern tip of India, which receives the first spell of ISM rainfall. In this study, the characteristic features and possible precursors for wet and dry spells of rainfall over the southern tip of India are investigated. We also explore the variability in monsoon low‐level jet (LLJ) in relation to wet and dry spells over a coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (8.48°N, 76.95°E) in southwest India using in situ observations and other ancillary datasets. The results show that a wet spell spanning 3–4 days contributes about 30% of seasonal rainfall. Wet spells are characterized by westerly wind anomaly in the southern tip of India and easterly wind anomaly in northern India, leading to anomalous cyclonic vorticity over the Indian subcontinent. The opposite happens during dry spells. These characteristics are prominent from 2 days prior to the initiation of the spells, suggesting they may be used as precursors for forecasting wet and dry spells over Thiruvananthapuram. Analysis of low‐ to mid‐tropospheric (2 and 4 km) humidity reveals significant moistening (drying) during wet (dry) spells. Yet, both wet and dry spells experience humid (>80%) boundary layer. The differences in mid‐level humidity and thermodynamical structures between wet and dry spells seem to contribute to distinct rainfall characteristics over the southern tip of India. These results indicate that the use of in situ observations along with large‐scale reanalysis datasets may provide valuable information on the precursors for wet and dry spells over the southern tip of India, which can help both in regional‐ and city‐level planning and management of water resources.

Numerical study of flame characteristics in a reduced-diameter vortex combustor

In this paper, the combustion process in a vortex combustor, which is composed of two volutes, a center nozzle, and a reduced-diameter cavity, is studied by CFD simulation. The combined effect of the center jet and cyclone vortex on the flame structure is revealed by analyzing the fuel transport mechanism and flow field characteristics. Results show that under different fuel and air supply conditions, two typical flame structures may form inside the combustor. When the equivalence ratio is 0.5 and the power is 40 kW and 50 kW, Flame A will be produced, which is mainly distributed near the center nozzle. Under other conditions, Flame B will be generated, which is a two-layer structure with an inner layer surrounding the center nozzle and an outer layer near the wall. The construction of Flame B inside the reduced diameter vortex combustor is mainly attributed to the strong cyclonic flow, which breaks the recirculation in the flow field, transporting the fuel to the near wall region and promoting secondary combustion. At this time, the methane burn rate can be as high as 99 %, which is 10 % higher than the methane burn rate of Flame A.

The Dynamics of Jupiter's and Saturn's Weather Layers: A Synthesis After Cassini and Juno

Until recently, observations of the giant planets of our Solar System were confined to sampling relatively shallow regions of their atmospheres, leaving many uncertainties as to the dynamics of deeper layers. The Cassini and Juno missions to Saturn and Jupiter, however, have begun to address these issues, for example, by measuring their gravity and magnetic fields. The results show that the zonally coherent jets and cloud bands extend to levels where the electrical conductivity of the fluid becomes significant, whereas large-scale vortices, such as the Great Red Spot, are relatively shallow but may have deep-seated roots. The polar regions also exhibit intense cyclonic vortices that, on Jupiter, arrange themselves into remarkably regular “vortex crystals.” Numerical models seem able to capture some of this complexity, but many issues remain unresolved, suggesting a need for models that can represent both deep and shallow processes sufficiently realistic ally to compare with observations.

The Effect of Initial Vortex Asymmetric Structure on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Response to an Imposed Environmental Vertical Wind Shear

AbstractPrevious studies have investigated how the environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) may trigger the asymmetric structure in an initially axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) vortex and how TC intensity changes in response. In this study, the possible effect of the initial vortex asymmetric structure on the TC intensity change in response to an imposed environmental VWS is investigated based on idealized full‐physics model simulations. Results show that the effect of the asymmetric structure in the initial TC vortex can either enhance or suppress the initial weakening of the TC in response to the imposed environmental VWS. When the initial asymmetric structure is in phase of the VWS‐induced asymmetric structure, the TC weakening will be enhanced and vice versa. Our finding calls for realistic representation of initial TC asymmetric structure in numerical weather prediction models and observations to better resolve the asymmetric structure in TCs.

Variations in Key Factors at Different Explosive Development Stages of an Extreme Explosive Cyclone over the Japan Sea

Explosive cyclones (ECs) occur frequently over the Japan Sea. The most rapidly intensifying EC over the Japan Sea during the 44-year period 1979–2022, in the cold season (October–April), was examined to reveal the variations in the key factors at different explosive development stages. The EC deepened at a maximum deepening rate of 3.07 bergerons and explosive development lasted for 15 h. At the initial moment of explosive development, the EC had distinctive low-level baroclinicity, the low-level water vapor convergence was weak, and mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection was far away from the EC’s center. At the moment at which the EC reached the maximum deepening rate, the low-level water vapor convergence and mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection increased distinctly and approached the EC’s center. A diagnostic analysis using the Zwack–Okossi equation showed that the main contributor to the initial explosive development was warm-air advection. Through the evolutionary process of the explosive development, the non-key factors of the cyclonic vorticity advection and diabatic heating at the initial explosive development stage increased quickly and became key factors contributing to the maximum explosive development. The key factors contributing to the explosive development varied with the stage of explosive development. The cross-section and vertical profile of each term suggested that the cyclonic vorticity advection was enhanced in the upper troposphere and diabatic heating increased in the middle troposphere.

Mesoscale Cyclonic Vortices Embedded in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone Associated with Natural Disasters in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Natural disasters (NDs) have been observed more frequently and with increasing intensities in Brazil. The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is identified as one of the main meteorological systems responsible for the NDs, however, intense rainfall does not occur along its entire length but is restricted to some locations within the band of cloudiness that defines it. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze occurrences of mesoscale cyclonic vortices (MCV) in SACZ events that were associated with NDs in the state of São Paulo from 2013 to 2017 using data from the ERA5 Reanalysis, as well as to analyze one case study. To account for SACZ events, surface synoptic charts, observed and estimated precipitation data were used. ND events were selected from the Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) database. The methodology used by Quadro (2012) was adapted to identify MCV. The results showed 62 SACZ events, of which 28 were associated with NDs, and, of these, 10 presented MCV. The MCVs were separated into two groups: 1) MCVs in the SACZ events that showed precipitation at the location of the MCV and NDs and 2) MCVs in the SACZ events that did not show precipitation at the location of the MCV and NDs. Group 1 events were characterized by convergence at low levels and divergence at high levels of the atmosphere, vorticity values lower than -8 x 10-4 s-1 predominating at low levels (850–900 hPa), demonstrating a relationship with the highest precipitation accumulations and possibly with the occurrence of NDs. In the events of group 2, there was a predominance of negative values of vorticity in medium and high levels, the lack of a pattern in the field of divergence in the atmospheric levels, as well as lower values in the accumulated precipitation compared to the events of group 1. The case study was from January 11 to 15, 2016, associated with NDs in 8 cities. As a result, it was obtained that MCV was coupled in the atmosphere and the precipitation associated with it represented more than 37% of all the precipitation of the SACZ event, making it possible to attribute to the MCV a contribution in the occurrence of NDs caused by precipitation.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Angle of Attack on the Morphology of Atmospheric von Kármán Vortex Streets

AbstractA mesoscale model is used to systematically investigate how the incoming flow incidence angle affects the development of atmospheric von Kármán vortex streets for non‐axisymmetric islands. The analysis is focused on an event observed on the leeward side of Guadalupe Island. By keeping the synoptic conditions the same, several simulations are performed for rotated orientations of the island topography, which correspond to a change in the angle of attack (AoA) relative to the upstream flow. The asymmetry of the vortex shedding and the role of the leading and trailing edge are in line with what was observed in laboratory von Kármán vortex streets past a flat plate. The eddies become larger with increasing AoA while the shedding frequency decreases, and the asymmetry between cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies weakens. Cyclonic vortices are more developed and stronger under typical conditions when they are shed from the trailing edge. We also demonstrate that the wake asymmetry is fundamentally between trailing‐edge and leading‐edge eddies rather than between cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies.

Analysis of a multiple non-supercell tornado event in Mexico

Multiple tornado events frequently occur in different parts of the world. A region that seems favorable for recurring multiple tornado events due to its geographical location and topography is the eastern sector of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. A notable multiple tornado event that occurred in this region is investigated. It consisted of five simultaneous tornadoes during the convergence of three air masses: a cold air mass displaced from the north with moderately high relative humidity and specific humidity, a comparatively warm air mass with moderate relative humidity from the southeast, and a hotter air mass with low relative humidity from the southwest. This situation generated a line of intense horizontal wind shear through which the five tornadoes occurred. Numerical simulations revealed three cyclonic vortices and other minor disturbances along the shear line. Vertical cross-sections show rising air in these disturbances suggesting a cyclonic character. The results indicate that the relatively warm mass from the southeast moves over the one associated with a cold front coming from the north, generating multiple cyclonic rotation zones. Experiments with Lagrangian particles revealed vertical movements in the cyclonic rotation zones implying that the maximum heights of the tornadoes varied between 1000 and 1500 m. Moisture flux convergence calculations display structures resembling Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. This research proposes a conceptual model where the convergence of masses induced by topography can lead to multiple tornado generation.

The dynamics of slow‐moving coherent cyclonic potential vorticity anomalies and their links to heavy rainfall over the eastern seaboard of Australia

Heavy rainfall occurs frequently on the subtropical eastern seaboard of Australia (ESB). Many rainfall events are associated with slow‐moving, upper‐level low‐pressure systems. Combined with moisture‐rich easterly winds associated with a surface anticyclone, these systems can produce heavy rainfall, leading to flooding events. Although the general meteorology of these events has been documented, much of the focus has been on surface processes, with limited attention paid previously to the dynamics aloft. Here, we investigate the upper‐level dynamics associated with heavy rainfall events over the ESB with the use of a coherent potential vorticity (PV) minimum climatology on the 330‐K isentropic level. Slow‐moving coherent cyclonic PV anomalies produce more rainfall than fast‐moving anomalies over the ESB. Rossby‐wave breaking is responsible for the development of a slow‐moving coherent cyclonic PV anomaly as well as the commonly observed surface patterns that are necessary for heavy rainfall over the ESB. Slow cyclonic coherent PV anomalies are either transported equatorwards into the Tropics, where they may influence tropical weather systems, or removed from the region by the restoration of the subtropical jet over continental Australia.

The Role of the North Atlantic Blocking High during Large-Scale Heavy Rainfall Events over Central India

Abstract Large-scale extreme rainfall events (LEREs) over central India are produced by monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) when assisted by a secondary cyclonic vortex (SCV). Both the LPS and the SCV are embedded in a monsoon trough and form mainly during the positive phase of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. Here, we observe that tropical–extratropical interactions exist during LEREs. Using ray tracing, we show that extratropical Rossby waves propagate to the Indian subcontinent during the summer monsoon season. Stationary Rossby wave rays originating over the North Atlantic Ocean reach India following approximately a great circle path at midtropospheric levels. This pathway appears to play an important role in tropical–extratropical interactions during LEREs. Seventy-seven percent of LEREs are preceded by a North Atlantic blocking high and 90% by a quasi-stationary central Asian high. The Atlantic blocking high triggers a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response and strengthens the downstream central Asian high. In turn, the quasi-stationary central Asian high facilitates Rossby wave breaking, transporting high-PV streamers and cutoffs equatorward. The central Asian high is in close proximity to the monsoon trough in the mid- and lower troposphere. It interacts with the monsoon trough over the northwest Indian subcontinent. The equatorial monsoon trough is strengthened due to the supply of dynamic forcing and static instabilities from the extratropics. This additional forcing from the extratropics creates an environment that is conducive for LEREs.

Increase in Cape Verde hurricanes during Atlantic Niño

At seasonal-to-interannual timescales, Atlantic hurricane activity is greatly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Meridional Mode. However, those climate modes develop predominantly in boreal winter or spring and are weaker during the Atlantic hurricane season (June–November). The leading mode of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the Atlantic hurricane season is Atlantic Niño/Niña, which is characterized by warm/cold SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. However, the linkage between Atlantic Niño/Niña and hurricane activity has not been examined. Here, we use observations to show that Atlantic Niño, by strengthening the Atlantic inter-tropical convergence zone rainband, enhances African easterly wave activity and low-level cyclonic vorticity across the deep tropical eastern North Atlantic. We show that such conditions increase the likelihood of powerful hurricanes developing in the deep tropics near the Cape Verde islands, elevating the risk of major hurricanes impacting the Caribbean islands and the U.S.