Cyclone Nargis Research Articles

DISASTER RECOVERY SUSTAINABLE HOUSING

Disasters due to Natural causes and man-made around the world make many people homeless every year. Disasters such as Pakistan floods in 2010, Haiti earthquake in 2010, Chile earthquake in 2010, Japan earthquake in 2011, Philippines hurricane Yolanda in 2012, the earthquake in Sichuan, China in 2008, the Cyclone Nargis, Mayanmar in 2008 and the 2004 Tsunami remind us of the enormous human suffering and the magnitude of destruction to infrastructure they can cause. In spite of the best efforts of the international disaster response mechanisms currently available, evidence suggests that the most vulnerable among the affected remain entrapped in a vicious cycle of poverty and hopelessness. For these people who are affected the most urgent need is to provide, food, medical assistance, maintaining hygiene and providing shelter within a short timeframe. However, the long-term recovery of affected people would largely depend on their ability to re-gain permanency in housing. This paper focuses on this aspect of response and recovery process and presents a product which is purpose designed not only in providing timely and speedy shelter but also could be used as the formwork in up-grading the temporary shelter to a permanent or semi-permanent home.

Track and intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean with multilayer feed forward neural nets

Precise forecasting of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones remains one of the top priorities for the meteorological community. In the present study multilayer feed forward neural nets with different architectures are developed to identify the best neural net for forecasting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) with 6, 12 and 24 h lead time. Forecast errors are estimated with each neural net. The result reveals that the neural net architecture 1 (NNA 1) with 10 input layers, 2 hidden layers, 5 hidden nodes and 2 output layers provides the best forecast for both the track and the intensity of the tropical cyclones over NIO. Two cyclones of the same category in Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale, namely Nargis and Phet, that occurred over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea of the NIO basin are considered in the present study for validation. The result reveals that the prediction errors (%) with NNA 1 model in estimating the intensity of the cyclones Nargis and Phet during the validation are 3.37, 8.29 and 9.74 as well as 6.38, 11.26 and 18.72 with 6, 12 and 24 h lead time, respectively. The mean track errors for 6, 12 and 24 h forecasts are observed to be 45, 69 and 89 km for cyclone Nargis and 54, 87 and 98 km for cyclone Phet. NNA 1 model is observed to perform better than NNA 2 and NNA 3 models and the existing numerical models.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CYCLONIC STORM SURGES OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL USING A METEOROLOGY-WAVE-SURGE-TIDE COUPLED MODEL

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of an integrated meteorology and storm surge model for both the hind casting and prediction of future climate change intensified cyclones over the Bay of Bengal. This meteorology based storm surge model was developed and applied by integrating a mesoscale WRF model with the wave model SWAN and coastal ocean model FVCOM. The coupled model could capture the actual phenomena of historical cyclone Nargis, which made landfall in Myanmar in 2008, accurately and reproduce the total water level rise due to this event. The model was then used to also simulate future cyclones over the Bay of Bengal taking into account climate change by the year 2100.

Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

Storm surges are one of the most important risks to coastal communities around the Bay of Bengal, and it is feared that the threat they pose will increase with climate change in the future. To understand the threats that these events pose, a summary of the field surveys performed in Yangon River Basin after cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 is presented. Though due to government restrictions survey activities were limited to the area near Yangon city, it was found out that the tide due to the storm surge was probably between 3 and 4 m high and travelled around 50 km upstream of the river mouth of Yangon River. Cyclone Nargis could be accurately reproduced using a numerical model that integrated weather, wave, coastal ocean models, and tide prediction system. The application of such an integrated model is relatively new for storm surge simulation and has never been used for the Bay of Bengal storms. The model was then used to also simulate future cyclones over the Bay of Bengal considering a future climate change scenario.

Japan Could Change While Staying the Course

Richard Samuels's book 3.11: Disaster and Change Japan is the best academic book to date on the triple disaster because of both the insightful academic questions it raises and the thoroughness of its earthquake-related information. It also is among the most provocative books I have ever read, posing the crucial question to Japan: Why has the opportunity of this not produced change? While contemplating this important question, however, I wondered whether perhaps it was that Japan did not change that much as a result of the crisis. I learned a lot from reading this book, but sometimes found myself being a bit skeptical of its criticism of Japan's choice to stay the rather than put it gear.1 Perhaps, I wondered, Japan is changing a piecemeal way, and perhaps it was predictable from the beginning that the probability of great change would not be high.To understand what happened, Samuels smartly chose three policy areas: national security, energy policy, and local governance. These not only are the areas that he knows best from his own academic research, but they also are where Japan faced the most important difficulties during 3.11. The damage from 3.11 was unprecedented. According to the World Bank, it represents the largest economic loss from one disaster since 1965.2 In the first week after the incident, people suffered shortages of food, water, and gasoline, among other things. Help and support came from abroad as well as from all over the country, as the largest number of volunteers Japanese history was mobilized. Although he points out some of the positive aspects of the response, Samuels nonetheless is very critical of the early stages of the government's risk management under the Kan cabinet. Two years and some months later, numerous debates are underway about changes various policy areas. However, Japan has still not geared in the course for change.Chapter 2, which is titled Never Waste a Good Crisis, and chapter 3, Historical and Comparative Guidance, were to me the key chapters for understanding this book. Chapter 2 sets the stage for the argument that Japan chose to stay the rather than put it gear. Samuels explains that the first few years after a constitute a critical period during which leaders may enjoy a greater range of choices than usual and which new institutions and structures could emerge (p. 24). The events and experiences of 3.11 were shocks of a magnitude equal to or greater than what had produced changes to the the past. According to Samuels, we should presume that significant adjustments follow sudden, major challenges to a previously stable system (p. 24).In contrast with chapter 2, where Samuels argues for a direction of change, chapter 3 provides very objectively the comparative framework to read the subsequent chapters (with chapter 4 focusing on security, chapter 5 on energy, and chapter 6 on local governance). The book considers a range of historical examples of natural disasters, including Hurricane Katrina the United States 2005; the 2008 earthquake Sichuan, China; Cyclone Nargis Myanmar 2008; and the 1995 earthquake Kobe. These examples may not be exhaustive, but they are deeply researched. Samuels clearly is knowledgeable and must have worked hard to collect and present the information about these disasters a very interesting way. His analysis of the Sichuan earthquake, for example, is a small case study of Japan-China diplomatic relations a difficult time. Although he concludes that the relationship did not ultimately improve from such diplomacy, the case study still suggests how a disaster can function as a diplomatic tool.Drawing on a quote by White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel to never waste a crisis (p. 26), Samuels has analyzed 3.11 to see how Japan has made use of its good crisis to recover from the damages. He reviews the past two years since the earthquake each of the three policy areas to assess whether any changes have occurred. …

An Offer You Cannot Refuse? Natural Disasters, the Politics of Aid Refusal and Potential Legal Implications

After Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar in early May 2008, the ruling regime imposed conditions upon the receipt and entry of disaster relief. This was met by a significant amount of international condemnation, which was often bolstered by invocations of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine. The legalities of disaster aid refusal very quickly became a serious topic of academic and practitioner discourse. While the politics of aid donation is a much-studied terrain, the politics of aid refusal has, until recently, received less attention. However, a recent strain of research in political science has sought to remedy this imbalance. This article considers what international lawyers can draw from this discourse and whether such a perspective can inform legal reforms, notably those being currently proposed by the International Law Commission (ILC). As well as questioning assumptions regarding the apoliticism of disaster aid, this article also considers the links between humanitarianism and regime change, utilising the case study of Cyclone Nargis. The role of R2P and its muscular humanitarianism is also examined, as is the extent to which it informs the current ILC proposals. The final section of the article considers humanitarian perspectives and the waning influence of ‘new humanitarianism’, which challenged fundamental legal concepts of impartial, neutral, needs-based aid.

Special Issue on Wind Disasters

Increasing numbers of devastating weather events such as Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines and tornadoes in the US and Japan are suggesting that nature’s destructive power is having a growing worldwide impact. These events follow the occurrence of such disasters as Cyclone Sidr in 2007 in Bangladesh and Cyclone Nargis in 2008 in Myanmar, especially in the alarming numbers of deaths and injuries and concomitant property loss. The wind engineering community has taken the initiative in globally promoting wind hazard research and education over the last several decades and is continuing to devote its efforts and energy to producing and providing techniques in advanced wind hazard mitigation to developing countries prone to typhoons and cyclones. Mitigating the effects of wind hazards on a global plane has thus become a top priority because most of the economic and other loss due globally to natural disasters is caused by extreme wind and water events. Calamitous tropical cyclones generally bring with them high waves, storm surges, heavy rain, flooding, landslides and lightning. This ongoing process underscores the pressing need to pool expertise and cooperation in reducing such loss. The loss of lives and related financial loss and waste due to such disasters is continuing to increase significantly. It has therefore been hypothesized that global warming and climate change are potentially exacerbating such scenarios as the intensity of weather-related disasters grows. This special issue of the Journal of Disaster Research focusing on wind-induced disasters is thus both meaningful and timely. As the Guest Editor, I am most pleased to have this opportunity to present and share the latest in knowledge, information and resources on wind damage mitigation to all those working in mitigation efforts and to society as a whole. Finally, I extend our sincere thanks to all of the contributors and reviewers involved with these articles.

Bridging between Myanmar and international society – Japan's self-identity and kakehashi policy

Numerous academic works have critiqued Japan's Official Development Assistance (ODA) programme for being mercantilist and failing to promote democratization and human rights (Orr 1990; Rix 1993; Arase 1995, 2005). Such accounts assess Japan's ODA policy from Western theoretical perspectives that advocate Western approaches, such as military and economic interventions to contain repressive states. While receptive to these criticisms, Japanese policy-makers have perceived their country's international role in ‘bridging’ (kakehashi) terms and structured their ODA accordingly, as this paper details in the case of Japan's ODA policy towards Myanmar.1 The rationale behind Japan's kakehashi approach lies in the construction of Japan's self-identity as a state able to reenter international society after World War II through focusing on economic development rather than military and coercive action. Proponents of the kakehashi approach construct Japan both as a model of successful democratization through development which other states can learn from, as well as the means through ODA to ‘bridge’ the divide between repressive regimes and liberal democratic capitalism. This critical approach examines Japan's kakehashi or bridging strategy in terms of Japan's response to the anti-government protests in September 2007, Cyclone Nargis in May 2008, and in the build up to parliamentary elections in November 2010 in Myanmar to demonstrate the permanence of this approach in spite of a change of government in Japan. In so doing, the kakehashi approach reveals opportunities to engage with, rather than contain, repressive regimes, thereby raising the possibility of enticing such states back into international society though economic incentives.

From British to Humanitarian Colonization: The ‘EarlyRecovery’ Response in Myanmar after Nargis

The humanitarian response to the disaster caused by Cyclone Nargis that hit theAyeyarwady Delta region of Myanmar in 2008 is a pertinent example of a veryspecific phase in humanitarian response at the transition between emergency anddevelopment. The author shows that this phase, known as ‘earlyrecovery’, being built on the specific characteristics of the emergency(lack of time and lack of means and input) and oriented towards development, isone in which the humanitarian aid agency is relatively restricted to thehumanitarian sphere itself. As a result, the ideological discourse lengthilydenounced by the post-structuralist anthropology of development – as aset of Western values imposed on the ‘developing’ countries toassert a new form of dominion – is actually powerful and quasi-monolithicin shaping the consequences of humanitarian aid. While there is no‘arena’ for the ‘beneficiaries' to discuss theaid's agency, a ‘methodological populism’ approach reveals,on the one hand, the antagonisms between a humanitarian ideology conveyingconsiderations such as ‘horizontal’ communities versus‘hierarchical bonds’ and, on the other, the similarity of itssocioeconomic consequences on the Delta's society to those of the Britishcolonial period.

Prediction of recovery pathways of cyclone-disturbed mangroves in the mega delta of Myanmar

Mangroves in the Ayeyarwady Mega Delta of Myanmar are crucial for the ecology, society and economy of this country. At the beginning of May 2008, a severe cyclonic storm, Cyclone Nargis, struck the Ayeyarwady mangroves. Since that time, the present long-term study has been exploring the dynamics of post-cyclone mangrove vegetation. Every year since the 2008 cyclone, a census has been taken of 60 permanent plots (each measuring 10m×10m) in six mangrove communities in order to predict trends in their long-term recovery. Each selected mangrove community was dominated by either Avicennia officinalis, Bruguiera sexangula, Excoecaria agallocha, Heritiera fomes, Rhizophora apiculata, or Sonneratia caseolaris. Mortality among the Rhizophoraceae group, including B. sexangula and R. apiculata adult individuals, was more than 90%, whereas for other species belonging to the non-Rhizophoraceae group, it was less than 20%. Based on the 5-year assessment, the mangroves showed considerable resilience after the catastrophic cyclone disturbance. However, the recovery potential of specific species varied. In particular, communities where R. apiculata dominated demonstrated slow recovery processes. The reasons for the vulnerability of this species of Rhizophora to cyclone disturbance is assumed to be the result of three indirect post-cyclone consequences: high mortality caused by limited sprouting ability after wind-induced disturbance; erosion that occurred in the stressful habitat on riverbank mud flats with frequent tidal inundation; and delayed phenology after the catastrophic disturbance. The attempt to generalise the recovery rate of mangroves based on the crown closure of the six dominant mangrove communities explored in this study showed a recovery rate of 61.06% during the 4years after Cyclone Nargis. The demonstration of these patterns and processes among the most dominant mangrove species after the cyclone disturbance should therefore provide reliable information to forest managers, ecologists and local people, helping them make management decisions regarding measures for mangrove restoration.

Refusal to Save Lives: A Perspective from International Criminal Law

This article examines whether or not the refusal to accept life-saving humanitarian aid can qualify as a crime against humanity in international criminal law. By looking at the refusal to accept a certain HIV/AIDS drug in South Africa, and humanitarian aid in the wake of Cyclone Nargis in Burma, this article seeks to test the limits of the current understanding and conception of what a crime against humanity is. After a thorough review of the jurisprudence the article turns to apply the law to what transpired in South Africa and to Burma, and concludes that those situations do comport with the crime against humanity of ‘other inhumane acts’.

Community-centred eco-bio-social approach to control dengue vectors: an intervention study from Myanmar

Objectives: To build up and analyse the feasibility, process, and effectiveness of a partnership-driven ecosystem management intervention in reducing dengue vector breeding and constructing sustainable partnerships among multiple stakeholders.Methods: A community-based intervention study was conducted from May 2009 to January 2010 in Yangon city. Six high-risk and six low-risk clusters were randomized and allocated as intervention and routine service areas, respectively. For each cluster, 100 households were covered. Bi-monthly entomological evaluations (i.e. larval and pupal surveys) and household acceptability surveys at the end of 6-month intervention period were conducted, supplemented by qualitative evaluations.Intervention description: The strategies included eco-friendly multi-stakeholder partner groups (Thingaha) and ward-based volunteers, informed decision-making of householders, followed by integrated vector management approach.Findings: Pupae per person index (PPI) decreased at the last evaluation by 5·7% (0·35–0·33) in high-risk clusters. But in low-risk clusters, PPI remarkably decreased by 63·6% (0·33–0·12). In routine service area, PPI also decreased due to availability of Temephos after Cyclone Nargis. As for total number of pupae in all containers, when compared to evaluation 1, there was a reduction of 18·6% in evaluation 2 and 44·1% in evaluation 3 in intervention area. However, in routine service area, more reduction was observed. All intervention tools were found as acceptable, being feasible to implement by multi-stakeholder partner groups.Conclusions: The efficacy of community-controlled partnership-driven interventions was found to be superior to the vertical approach in terms of sustainability and community empowerment.

Governance, socio-economic and geophysical indices for determining water-related disaster risk

Governance, socio-economic and geophysical indicators are indispensable measures of risk for water-related disasters leading to a better disaster risk mitigation and management for sustainable development. Water-related disaster countermeasures are weak in non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, thus higher economic losses and younger fatalities are concentrated there; for example, the majority of fatalities in developing nations are 50 years old or less, in contrast to those in developed nations where the most are older than 60 years old; furthermore, economic losses of 2.8, 19.7 and 2.7% of GDP were incurred during Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh, Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, and Typhoon Ketsana in the Philippines, respectively. A transfer of scientific knowledge and technology from developed to developing countries is helpful in strengthening water-related disaster countermeasures to reduce economic losses and fatalities. Natural hazards correspond to geophysical features, thus the categorization of these features leads to an understanding of corresponding natural hazards which helps disaster mitigation and land-use and policy planning for future development. A combination of governance, socio-economic and geophysical water-related disaster indicators is therefore an indispensable development index.

Media messages and the needs of infants and young children after Cyclone Nargis and the WenChuan Earthquake

Infants and young children are vulnerable in emergencies. The media plays an important role in aid delivery and has a positive impact when reports are accurate. However, the media has been implicated in encouraging harmful aid in the form of donations of infant formula and other milk products. Internet-based media reports were collected after Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar and the WenChuan Earthquake in China (2008) and examined for content related to infant and young child feeding. Common messages identified included that: babies are vulnerable; stress prevents breastfeeding; and providing infant formula saves lives. Messages rarely reported included that: artificial feeding is dangerous; and breastfeeding protects infants. This analysis suggests that current patterns of media reporting may encourage harmful aid and increase child morbidity and mortality. Aid organisations should encourage the media to report accurately on the needs of infant and young children in emergencies so as to improve aid delivery.

Risk reduction at the “Last-Mile”: an attempt to turn science into action by the example of Padang, Indonesia

More than ever before, the last decade revealed the immense vulnerability of the world’s cities to natural hazards. Neither the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cyclone Nargis in 2008 nor the earthquakes in Sichuan in 2008 or in Haiti 2010 found the people, the city administrations or the national or international organizations well prepared in the advent of anticipated but to a large extent disregarded natural disasters. It is evident that the lack of tailor-made disaster management plans and standard operational procedures are often the crucial point in proper risk reduction approaches. This study presents an approach to transfer knowledge of an extensive multidisciplinary scientific study on risk identification into recommendations for risk reduction strategies. The study has been conducted by means of a combination of experts from different scientific communities coming from civil and coastal engineering, remote sensing, social sciences, evacuation modelling and capacity development. The paper presents the results of this research approach and interweaves key findings with recent experiences from an eyewitness on a previous hazard event. Thus, necessary tsunami hazard and vulnerability information as well as valuable insights into preparedness activities have been derived for initiating updated infrastructural designs and practical recommendations for emergency management as well as strategic spatial planning activities at the local scale. The approach was applied in the context of tsunami early warning and evacuation planning in the coastal city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia.

A Call to Alms?: Natural Disasters, R2P, Duties of Cooperation and Uncharted Consequences

This article, which was initially prompted by Myanmar’s behaviour following Cyclone Nargis in May 2008, considers affected states’ responses to natural disasters, as regards the receipt of international aid-assistance. Such catastrophic phenomena provide a context for re-examining the boundaries of an affected state’s sovereign discretion, and its fettering via concepts such as Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and duties of international cooperation. Increasingly commonplace pronouncements regarding international solidarity and responsibilities toward the plight of disaster-stricken populations are reflected in the International Law Commission’s current study in this area. Part I briefly tracks post-Cold War hawkish approaches to enforcing human rights and the emergence of R2P. Part II considers the fractured nature of international disaster response law which provided the opportunity for R2P’s invocation post-Nargis. Despite its eventual, explicit, exclusion from application to natural disasters per se, Part III maintains that R2P’s rhetorical influence persisted, both in diplomatic parlance and in the current ILC Draft Articles which embolden an international cooperative duty, particularly as regards the duties of an affected state. As well as critiquing this new articulation of co-operation (especially as regards freedom to reject aid) and its supposed distinctiveness from R2P, the consequences resulting from an affected state’s dereliction of its protective duty are pondered, as is the assertion that the proposed ILC duties present no major threat to an affected state’s sovereignty.

Near-shore wave induced setup along Kalpakkam coast during an extreme cyclone event in the Bay of Bengal

An enhanced sea level during an extreme weather event can result from cumulative effects of reduced sea-level pressure, storm surge, tidal effects and wave induced setup. A numerical experiment was conducted to evaluate sensitivity of model resolution and bottom slope on wave induced setup for an arbitrary coast. Further, an assessment of wave setup at coastal Kalpakkam was investigated, in response to passage of a Category-4 cyclone ‘NARGIS’, in the central Bay of Bengal. The sensitivity experiments cover an arbitrary region of 5km×5km, with varying horizontal resolutions and beach slopes, and subjected to uniform wind forcing and JONSWAP wave spectra prescribed at the open boundary. The computed wave setup using SWAN model reveals that model resolution is not sensitive for gentle bottom slopes, unlike the case with steep bottom slopes. Findings from sensitivity experiments were then applied to evaluate wave setup at three different locations along Kalpakkam coast, for the Cyclone NARGIS event. The study shows that wave setup was highest for a steep slope (1:20), reducing to almost 50% for gentle slopes (1:80). It is inferred that wave setup is an important parameter that needs to be incorporated in an operational storm surge forecasting system.

YANGON RIVER GEOMORPHOLOGY IDENTIFICATION AND ITS ENVIROMENTAL IMAPACTS ANALSYSI BY OPTICAL AND RADAR SENSING TECHNIQUES

Abstract. The Yangon river, also known as the Rangoon river, is about 40 km long (25miles), and flows from southern Myanmar as an outlet of the Irrawaddy (Ayeyarwady) river into the Ayeyarwady delta. The Yangon river drains the Pegu Mountains; both the Yangon and the Pathein rivers enter the Ayeyarwady at the delta. Fluvial geomorphology is based primarily on rivers of manageable dimensions. The emphasis is on geomorphology, sedimentology of Yangon river and techniques for their identification and management. Present techniques such as remote sensing have made it easier to investigate and interpret in details analysis of river geomorphology. In this paper, attempt has been made the complicated issues of geomorphology, sedimentation patterns and management of river system and evolution studied. The analysis was carried out for the impact of land use/ land cover (LULC) changes on stream flow patterns. The hydrologic response to intense, flood producing rainfall events bears the signatures of the geomorphic structure of the channel network and of the characteristic slope lengths defining the drainage density of the basin. The interpretation of the hydrologic response as the travel time distribution of a water particle randomly injected in a distributed manner across the landscape inspired many geomorphic insights. In 2008, Cyclone Nargis was seriously damaged to mangrove area and its biodiversity system in and around of Yangon river terraces. A combination of digital image processing techniques was employed for enhancement and classification process. It is observed from the study that middle infra red band (0.77mm – 0.86mm) is highly suitable for mapping mangroves. Two major classes of mangroves, dense and open mangroves were delineated from the digital data.

THE POLITICS OF PROTECTION IN BURMA

This article explores how people living in areas of Burma/Myanmar affected by armed conflict (Karen populations in the southeast) and natural disaster (Cyclone Nargis in the Irrawaddy Delta) understand “protection” and act to minimize risks and protect themselves, their families, and communities. What do vulnerable people seek to protect, and how do they view the roles of other stakeholders, including the state, non-state actors (armed and political groups), community-based organizations, and national and international aid agencies? Are these viewed as protection actors, or sources of threat—or a mixture of both?

Ocean heat content for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting and its impact on storm surge

Accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts are vital to storm surge prediction and risk management. However, current cyclone intensity forecast skill is deficient, especially for rapid, unexpected intensification events. These sudden intensification events could be catastrophic if they occur just prior to making landfall in heavily populated and storm surge-vulnerable regions of the world. New satellite altimetry observations have revealed that oceanic subsurface warm features such as eddies and currents could make a critical contribution to the sudden intensification of high-impact cyclones. These warm features are characterized by high ocean heat content or tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) and can effectively limit a cyclone’s self-induced negative feedback from ocean cooling to favor intensification. This manuscript presents recent advancements in the understanding of the ocean’s role in generating intense tropical cyclones, that can produce high storm surge events such as Hurricane Katrina (2005) and ‘killer’ Cyclone Nargis (2008), which produced high storm surge events. Regional characteristics and on-going cyclone intensity forecast and storm-surge modeling efforts are also described. Quantitative assessment based on the case of Hurricane Rita (2005) revealed that an encounter with a high TCHP region can lead to large difference in the subsequent surge and inundation. The results show that, after a high TCHP encounter, there is approximately a 30 % increase in surge and inundation along the coast and new areas become submerged deep inland, as compared to a tropical cyclone that does not encounter a high TCHP region along its storm track.