Cyclone Formation Research Articles

Modifications to Three‐Dimensional Turbulence Parameterization for Tropical Cyclone Simulation at Convection‐Permitting Resolution

AbstractAdequate representation of the subgrid‐scale (SGS) turbulent fluxes associated with convective clouds in the eyewall and rainbands above the boundary layer is important for simulating the formation of tropical cyclone (TC) dynamic and thermal structure, as well as the evolution and intensification of the TC. Two sets of benchmark large‐eddy simulations (LESs) for an idealized TC during the rapid intensification and mature stages were conducted. The turbulent transport above the boundary layer in the TC eyewall and rainbands exhibits a remarkable countergradient characteristic, which is poorly represented by the traditional eddy‐diffusivity closure. In contrast, the H‐gradient closure based on the horizontal gradients of the resolved variables is capable of accurately capturing the countergradient features and exhibiting a spatial distribution of SGS fluxes that mimics much better the coarse‐grained fluxes from the LES benchmarks. Moreover, the H‐gradient closure allows for the backscatter transfer of energy. By implementing the H‐gradient closure into a three‐dimensional turbulence parameterization, the TC simulated using the modified parameterization bears closer resemblance to the LES benchmarks in terms of the spatial distribution of SGS fluxes, TC intensity, primary and secondary circulations, and cloud morphology.

Cloud‐Radiation Feedback Facilitates Secondary Eyewall Formation of Tropical Cyclones

AbstractRecent studies show that the formation of outer rainbands (ORBs) is essence to secondary eyewall formation (SEF) of tropical cyclones (TCs). This study reveals that cloud‐radiation feedback (CRF) facilitates SEF of TCs by promoting the formation of ORBs and their stratiform sectors. In detail, CRF engenders an upper‐level anomalous radiative warming in the outer‐core region, which induces a secondary circulation that accelerates the release of microphysical heating above the freezing level. The enhanced upper‐level latent heating further promotes the outer‐core convection and the top‐down development of the ORBs. Moreover, CRF promotes a broader stratiform precipitation area and stronger stratiform heating profiles of the ORBs, which forces convective updrafts at the radially inward edge of the stratiform precipitation area and eventually leads to SEF. On the contrary, when the anomalous radiative warming is removed, the organization of ORBs and the development of stratiform precipitation are suppressed due to the absence of the radiation‐induced upper‐level secondary circulation, thus inhibiting SEF.

Effects of the Topography of Sumatra on Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Indian Ocean

One-quarter of the world’s tropical cyclones (TCs) occur in the Indian Ocean (IO) basin.The mechanisms for TC initiation in the IO are varied, but one recently discovered process involves the flow around the steep topography of Sumatra. When the low-level flow impinges on Sumatra, it is blocked and the flow splits under typical environmental stratification. As a result, wake vortices commonly develop at northern and southern island tips of the island. For the case of easterly flow, these circulationssubsequently move downstream over the IO. The wake vortices emanating from the island tips are counter-rotating, but since Sumatra straddles the equator, the circulations are cyclonic in both hemispheres and thus have the potential for TC development. Using data from2.5yearsof observations from DYNAMO and YOTC, it is found that approximately 25% of the TCsthat occurred overIO basin during that periodwere initiated by Sumatra-induced wake vortices.Additional analysis of vortex statistics for the period 2008-17 has found that vortex counts are highest near Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase 1 when low-level easterlies are strongest across southern Sumatra. A secondary peak in vortex formation occurs during MJO phase 4 when low-level westerlies exist near the equator west of Sumatra. The latter finding suggests that MJO-related, low-level westerly surges on the equator impinging on Sumatracontribute to an increase in wake vortex development. Numerical simulations have shown that circulations farther upstream such aswestern Pacific remnant TCs and the Borneo vortex can influence the development of Sumatra wake vortices and their growth into TCs over the IO.

Surface Wind Speeds and Enthalpy Fluxes During Tropical Cyclone Formation From Easterly Waves: A CYGNSS View

AbstractWe examined the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) retrievals of surface wind speeds and enthalpy fluxes in African easterly waves that led to the formation of 30 Atlantic tropical cyclones during 2018–2021. Lag composites show a cyclonic proto‐vortex as early as 3 days prior to tropical cyclogenesis. The enthalpy flux distribution does not vary substantially before cyclogenesis, but subsequently, there is a marked increase in the extreme upper values. In the composites, a negative radial gradient of enthalpy fluxes becomes apparent 2–3 days before cyclogenesis. These results—based on novel data blending satellite retrievals and global reanalysis—support the findings from recent studies that the spin‐up of tropical cyclones is associated with a shift of peak convection toward the vortex core and an inward increase of enthalpy fluxes.

A pathway for multi-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking—case study for Yaas

A Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘Yaas’ developed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 23 May 2021 and crossed over the Odisha coast on 26 May with maximum sustained wind speed of 75 kts. Herein, a pathway has been developed and exemplified for ‘Yaas’ through three-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking. Days before the cyclone formation, cyclone genesis potential parameter, sea surface temperature (SST) (> 30 °C) and tropical cyclone heat potential (anomaly of 40–80 kJ/cm2) indicated a strong possibility of cyclogenesis in the BoB. A Lagrangian advection model used for its track prediction with 24-h lead-time provided an accuracy of ~ 19 km and ~ 6 h in its landfall location and time. Further, intensity prediction was done using numerical weather prediction model. Geostationary satellites, INSAT-3D/3DR, were used to visualize cyclone structure. Passing of cyclone had its reverbarations in oceans, which are observed in SST drop of ~ 3 °C, salinity and density increase by ~ 1 psu and ~ 2 kg/m3, respectively. During the period, 23–26 May 2021, the Ekman suction velocity and chlorophyll concentration were found significantly high at ~ 5 m/day and > 0.5 mg/m3, respectively. Forecast of storm surge was found to be between 3.5 and 4 m at coastal locations. Significant wave height was found to be 5.5–9.2 m. The coastal inundation forecast for 24 May 2021 provided its quantitative maximum inland extent. Finally, loss of the crop, fishery and forest areas by strong winds and inundation/ingress of saline water associated with storm surge were examined using SAR and optical data.

Potential Impacts of Radio Occultation Data Assimilation on Forecast Skill of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific

AbstractThis study assesses the potential influence of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) data assimilation on the forecast skill of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific in September–October 2019 through a regional model. Data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate mission II are applied. The forecast skill considers the hits and misses for nine developing cases and the false alarms and correct negatives for 23 non‐developing cases. Forecasts assimilating GNSS RO data reduce the false alarm ratio by 20% and increase the accuracy rate by 19%, compared to forecasts without GNSS RO data. Assimilation of GNSS RO data increases mid‐level moisture around the disturbance centers at the initial time of the forecasts. It also increases low‐level vorticity for developing cases but decreases vorticity throughout most of the troposphere for non‐developing cases. These lead to improved forecast performance for tropical cyclone formation.

New Investigation of a Tropical Cyclone: Observational and Turbulence Analysis for the Faraji Hurricane

In the general framework of the atmosphere, the in-depth study of extreme events of complex nature such as tropical cyclones remains an open problem. Nowadays, there are different useful studies aiming to enlarge the current knowledge of these events. Under this perspective, the search for mechanisms and geographical areas of formation and dynamics of tropical cyclones at different latitudes needs better constraints on their preliminary results. This work focuses on a diagnostic analysis of a tropical cyclone, with the aim of identifying key points that characterize its evolution, from a dynamic and observational point of view. The study is applied to Hurricane Faraji, the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2021 Indian Ocean season, classified as fifth-category on the Saffir–Simpson intensity scale. The study develops in three main sections, all related to each other. The starting point is a large set of satellite products from both polar and geostationary platforms. From the data acquired by the polar instruments, an accurate study of the evolution of the hurricane is carried out, focused on the extraction of physical information related to the system (temperature and altitude of the associated cloudy system, temperature gradient, pressure in the different regions) at moderate resolutions. From the data acquired by the geostationary instruments, it is possible to obtain very high temporal resolution pictures of the temperature field of the cyclone, from which a study of the turbulent dynamics is carried out. In particular, to investigate the maximum energy content in the different regions of the cyclone, the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) technique is used to extract the associated spectra of both the spatial and temporal components, studied separately on three different ranges of scales.

Frequency, Intensity and Influences of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and China, 1977–2018

China is part of the western Pacific region, which is the source of the most frequent tropical cyclones in the world. These cause severe disasters each year, including huge economic losses and casualties. To better understand their frequency and intensity, remote sensing tropical cyclone data were obtained for the entire Northwest Pacific region for the period 1977–2018. MATLAB and ArcGIS were used to analyse the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and their characteristics in various regions of China. At the same time, the influence factors of tropical cyclone characteristics such as El Niño and SST were analyzed by correlation analysis and Geographical detector. The annual frequency of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific showed a fluctuating state, but the overall trend was decreasing. In particular, since 1994, the overall frequency decreased significantly but rebounded in recent years, while the intensity did not change significantly. It was found that cyclone intensity is lower when the frequency is higher, and vice versa. 85% of tropical cyclones occurred in summer and autumn, with the highest intensities in autumn, when the maximum average wind speed peaks at 37 m/s. The area with the most frequent tropical cyclones was 5–20° N, 125–155° E. A total of 314 tropical cyclones arrived in China during the study period, an average of about 7.5 per year. Their frequency and intensity gradually decreased as they moved from coastal to inland areas. Both SST and El Niño are significantly related to the formation and development of tropical cyclones, and the contribution of multiple factors interaction to the variation characteristics of tropical cyclones is significantly higher than that of single factors. Understanding the characteristics of the Pacific tropical cyclones is an important step in planning disaster prevention framework.

Spatial-temporal variations of short-lived mesoscale eddies and their environmental effects

Mesoscale eddies (MEs) affect the transport and redistribution of oceanic matter and energy. The long-lived and long-distance propagation of individual eddies has garnered extensive attention; however, short-lived MEs (< 7 days) have been widely overlooked. In this study, the basic features of short-lived MEs and their spatial-temporal variations in a tropical eddy-rich region were extracted and analyzed for the first time. Short-lived cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies (CEs/AEs) were found to be widespread in two eddy belts in the tropical region of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The CEs and AEs were formed by the shear instability between large-scale circulations and were distributed on both sides of the North Equatorial Countercurrent, with significant differences in spatial distribution. The variations in sea surface temperature, mixed layer depth, and surface chlorophyll-a concentration in the core of the WPWP were spatially and temporally related to the development of the two eddy belts. This new insight into short-lived MEs in the tropical region contributes to our current understanding of ocean eddies. The potential impacts of short-lived MEs on climate change, global air–sea interactions, and tropical cyclone formation should receive adequate attention and further assessment in future research.

The Initial Mesoscale Vortexes Leading to the Formation of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

The Initial Mesoscale Vortexes Leading to the Formation of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

What affects the timing of tropical cyclone formation within a monsoon trough?

Although favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclone (TC) formation have been known for a long time, physical factors that influence the timing of TC formation remain unclear. Idealized numerical simulations are conducted by placing identical tropical disturbances (TDs) in various locations within the monsoon trough to examine what affects the timing of TC formation. The timing of TC formation is evaluated by the development time of TDs, which ranges from 60 h to 189 h. Vertical misalignment, defined as the vortex tilt between mid-and low-level circulation centers of the TD, is closely related to TC formation timing. The mid-and low-level circulation centers tend to be vertically aligned when TC formation time approaches. Different from previous studies, vertical misalignment does not entirely depend on vertical wind shear. Vertical misalignment is directly induced by inconsistent translation speeds between the mid-and low-level circulation centers. However, the steering flows for the mid-and low-level circulation centers cannot fully explain the differences in translation speeds. Additionally, there is no strong connection between environmental conditions and TC formation timing for the TDs within the monsoon trough. Rossby energy dispersions of TDs and terrain effects have some impacts on TC formation timing but are not decisive in this study.

Linking African Winds to Atlantic Storms

Simulations suggest that waves in the atmosphere above northern Africa influence the intensity, timing, and location of formation of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice

Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a hot research theme in the past decades. Usually, the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide considerable predictability sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) TC activity. Here, we emphasized that the Chukchi-Beaufort (C-B) and Greenland (GL) sea ice variability is closely linked to the year-to-year variations of the early autumn WNP TC formation frequency (TCF). Observational and numerical evidence proved that the excessive C-B and GL sea ice sustains from August to the following early autumn and triggers the southeastward propagation of the Rossby wave trains originating from the Arctic across Western Eurasia (Okhotsk Sea) to the WNP. The resultant anomalous low pressure over WNP provides suitable environmental conditions for TC formation―the enhancement of the lower-level relative vorticity and water moisture, and the decrease of vertical wind shear. For the reduced sea ice, an opposite situation tends to emerge. The persistent combined sea ice signal makes it a physically meaningful precursor for TCF prediction. The cross-validated hindcast and independent forecast based on both the tropical SST and the Arctic sea ice precursors present that the TCF index is predicted with much higher correlation coefficients than those of the empirical models with only the tropical SST predictors. The results demonstrate that the Arctic sea ice truly promotes the seasonal prediction capability of the WNP TCF.

Concurrent cyclogenesis in the Northern Indian Ocean and Monsoon Onset over Kerala in response to different MJO phases

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), one of the dominant intra-seasonal oscillations over the tropics, plays a major role in preconditioning the atmosphere and ocean prior to the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK). However, the onset process exhibits large variability even when MJO exists in the same phase. This study attempts to understand the characteristics of MOK during different MJO phases and the cyclogenesis process in the north Indian Ocean in concurrence with MOK. During the study period from 1980 to 2020, almost 80% of MOK have occurred in MJO phases I, II and III. The remaining 20% MOK occurred in all other phases of MJO except in phase VIII. The onset days are categorized as early (before 30th May), normal (30th May to 03rd June) and delayed (after 03rd June), and their occurrences under different MJO phases are examined. Various environmental parameters associated with the MJO phases were analysed to understand the cyclogenesis process close to the time of the MOK. Phase I is conducive to cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea, whereas phase III favours that in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. MJO phase II does not support cyclogenesis during the MOK. The decrease in the positive anomaly of lower-level westerlies towards the north of the equator gives rise to cyclonic shear vorticity, which supports the formation of cyclones during phases I and III. Associated with MOK, the total precipitable water shows a negative anomaly in phases I and II of MJO and a positive anomaly in phase III. The convective activity in the north Indian Ocean remains enhanced in phase III, where the amplitude of MJO is also found to be maximum.

The role of Atlantic variability in modulating the tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region

Previously the interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Australian region has mainly been attributed to the climate variability in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this study, we found that the influence from climate variability in the Atlantic is of equal importance. Application of a state-of-the-art causality analysis reveals that the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are all causal to the Australian region TCG frequency. The associated physical mechanisms are investigated as well. Based on this causal analysis and inference, a statistical model is constructed to forecast TCG, using the Poisson regression and the step-by-step predictor selection method. The Atlantic causal factors, after being taken in as new predictors, help increase the forecast skill for the seasonal Australian region TCG by as much as 10% in terms of correlation increase and 40% in terms of root-mean-square error reduction.

Acceleration of Tropical Cyclone Development by Cloud-Radiative Feedbacks

Abstract A complete understanding of the development of tropical cyclones (TC) remains elusive and forecasting TC intensification remains challenging. This motivates further research into the physical processes that govern TC development. One process that has, until recently, been under-investigated is the role of radiation. Here, the importance of radiative feedbacks in TC development and the mechanisms underlying their influence is investigated in a set of idealized convection-permitting simulations. A TC is allowed to form after initialization from a mesoscale warm, saturated bubble on an f plane, in an otherwise quiescent and moist neutral environment. Tropical storm formation is delayed by a factor of 2 or 3 when radiative feedbacks are removed by prescribing a fixed cooling profile or spatially homogenizing the model-calculated cooling profiles. The TC’s intensification rate is also greater when longwave radiative feedbacks are stronger. Radiative feedbacks in the context of a TC arise from interactions between spatially and temporally varying radiative heating and cooling (driven by the dependence of radiative heating and cooling rate on clouds and water vapor) and the developing TC (the circulation of which shapes the structure of clouds and water vapor). Further analysis and additional mechanism denial experiments pinpoint the longwave radiative feedback contributed by ice clouds as the strongest influence. Improving the representation of cloud-radiative feedbacks in forecast models, therefore, has the potential to yield critical advancements in TC prediction. Significance Statement Our understanding of the development of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons is incomplete, and, thus, forecasting tropical cyclone formation and intensification remains challenging. This study investigates the importance of interactions between clouds and solar and infrared radiation for tropical cyclone development. I find that in idealized convection-permitting simulations, tropical cyclone development is accelerated by a factor of 2 or more with the inclusion of these cloud–radiation feedbacks. The interaction of ice clouds associated with strong thunderstorms with infrared radiation has the biggest effect. These results indicate that improving the representation of ice clouds and their radiative feedbacks in forecast models has the potential to yield critical advancements in tropical cyclone prediction.

Evaluating the Influence of CAM5 Aerosol Configuration on Simulated Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability.

Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans

Numerous Atlantic basin tropical cyclones have recently developed prior to the official start of hurricane season, including several pre-season landfalls in the continental United States. Pre-season and early-season tropical cyclones disproportionately affect populated landmasses, often producing outsized precipitation impacts. Here we show a significant trend towards earlier onset of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin, with threshold dates of the first three percentiles of accumulated cyclone energy shifting earlier at a rate exceeding five days decade−1 since 1979, even correcting for biases in climatology due to increased detection of short-lived storms. Initial threshold dates of continental United States named storm landfalls have trended earlier by two days decade−1 since 1900. The trend towards additional pre-season and early-season activity is linked to spring thermodynamic conditions becoming more conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Genesis potential index value increases in the western Atlantic basin are primarily driven by warming ocean temperatures.

Analysis of the Atmospheric Duct Existence Factors in Tropical Cyclones Based on the SHAP Interpretation of Extreme Gradient Boosting Predictions

The atmospheric duct (AD) is an anomalous structure in which electromagnetic waves can make transhorizon propagation. ADs often occur in the formation, development and disappearance of tropical cyclones (TCs). In this work, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model is used to predict TC ducts and a relatively high accuracy of 81.3% is obtained. Shapely additional explanations (SHAP) values of the features including TC parameters and local meteorological parameters are employed to interpret XGBoost model predictions of the TC ducts existence. Furthermore, the importance ranking of the features is revealed, among which the distance between dropsondes and TC eyes is the most important. In addition, the detailed relationships between the AD existence and the features are presented. Hence, this work can not only improve the knowledge of the relationship between TC ducts and the features, but also be of great value to the ducts prediction.

Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation by central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation on decadal and interannual timescales

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of central Pacific (CP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) on decadal and interannual timescales. The CP ENSO‐TC frequency relationship is strong and significant only on decadal timescales, with enhanced TC formation over most of the WNP associated with warm CP ENSO phases. TC formation changes, driven by CP ENSO, exhibit a southeast–northwest dipole pattern on interannual timescales, similar to the typical pattern induced by eastern Pacific ENSO. Associated with warm CP ENSO phases on decadal timescales are increases in TC formation east of 125°E, while increases in TC formation east of 140°E are observed with warm CP ENSO phases on interannual timescales. These increases in TC activity are primarily caused by favourable dynamic conditions, including increased 850‐hPa relative vorticity and 200‐hPa divergence and decreased 850–200‐hPa vertical wind shear. The main TC formation difference on decadal and interannual timescales is concentrated over the longitudinal band of 125°–140°E, where reduced TC formation is observed on interannual timescales during CP El Niño years, predominately due to suppressed thermodynamic factors, for example, reduced maximum potential intensity and 700–500‐hPa relative humidity. We find insignificant (significant) changes in thermodynamic conditions between 125°E and 140°E due to weak (strong) descending motion in the western cell of the anomalous Walker circulation on decadal (interannual) timescales. This can be explained by different patterns of CP ENSO‐induced sea surface temperature anomalies on different timescales.