Wage Cyclicality Research Articles

The Causes of Business Cycles and the Cyclicality of Real Wages

A model's ability to explain procyclical movements in real wages has become an important benchmark by which macroeconomists judge business cycle theories. Because Keynesian models with sticky nominal wages predict countercyclical real wages, they have been criticized and dismissed in favor of Real Business Cycle models or New Keynesian models based on price stickiness or countercyclical markups. The bulk of the evidence for procyclical real wages, however, comes from studies using panel data that estimate the unconditional, contemporaneous correlation between real wages and the unemployment rate. These studies constrain real wage cyclicality to be the same irrespective of the source of the business cycle fluctuations. This paper relaxes this constraint and estimates a structural VAR identified by long-run restrictions on the responses of hours and output to labor supply, technology, oil price, and aggregate demand shocks. It finds that real wages are procyclical in response to technology shocks and oil price shocks, but are countercyclical in response to labor supply shocks and aggregate demand shocks. The procyclicality of real wages during the periods covered by the panel data sets may be explained by the importance of the productivity slowdown and the 1970s oil price shocks. The results highlight the limitations of using the unconditional, contemporaneous correlation between real wages and business cycle indicators to sort out competing theories of the business cycle, and cast strong doubt on the appropriateness of the rejection of sticky wage models.

Spatial Dynamics and Heterogeneity in the Cyclicality of Real Wages

Neither the issue of how local and aggregate labor markets interact over time-nor the issue of how heterogeneity by education, race, and other factors interacts with these spatial dynamics-has previously been explored in the literature on the cyclicality of real wages. This study investigates how real wages respond to local and aggregate unemployment rates over time, and explores possible heterogeneities in the responses. Results, based upon data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, indicate that real wages move procyclically with both aggregate and local markets, but that the response to local changes occurs with a lag; that rates of return to education are procyclical overall for aggregate labor markets, but tend to be countercyclical for blacks; and that wages of union, manufacturing, blue-collar, and black workers tend to be less procyclical, even countercyclical for black college graduates. Overall, we find substantial spatial dynamics and heterogeneity in the cyclicality of real wages.

An Equilibrium Theory of Wage and Employment Cyclicality by Gender and by Industry

This paper presents an equilibrium theory that accounts for how cyclical patterns of employment and real wages vary between genders and across industries. Workers' self-selection of industrial sectors, gender differences in comparative advantage among sectors, sector-nonneutral shocks, and resulting mobility of workers across sectors play the key roles in explaining wage and employment cyclicality by gender and by industry. Numerical simulations demonstrate that reasonable parameter values exist under which the current model accords with several stylized facts. These parameter values are characterized most importantly by men's comparative advantage in the sector subject to larger cyclical demand shocks.

Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Aggregation Across Industries?

There is a growing consensus among economists that real wages in the postwar U.S. have been moderately to strongly procyclical, particularly in panel data on workers. From the point of view of hiring decisions of firms, however, this conclusion may be premature or even erroneous. Whether a firm's labor demand curve is stable or shifting at business cycle frequencies should be tested with a wage that is deflated by the firm's own price of output, with appropriate controls for the prices of intermediate inputs, and with respect to the cyclical state of the firm's own industry, as opposed to the state of the aggregate economy. I find that failing to control for these factors has led to a substantial procyclical bias in previous estimates of wage cyclicality. In two-digit and four-digit level (SIC) industry data on wages, with controls for changes in worker composition, I find that a substantial majority of sectors have paid real product wages that vary inversely (i.e., countercyclically) with the state of their industry.

Nominal Wage Rigidity and Real Wage Cyclicality

We discuss the ability of standard estimates of the correlation of wages and employment to measure the relative strength of aggregate demand and supply shocks, given that the choice of time period, deflator, and explanatory variables inherently biases the estimated cyclical coefficients toward identifying labor supply or demand. We determine that a closer look at the standard wage/labor correlation shows that it can neither provide information on the relative strength of supply and demand shocks, nor give an indication of the response of wages to aggregate demand shocks. Following this, we test the predictions of a neo-Keynesian model for the correlation of employment and wages using restrictions generated by the model to identify movements along or shifts in labor demand. Our results are consistent with the theory of nominal wage rigidity and we find no reason to reject the neo-Keynesian model based on the correlation of wages and employment.

Cyclicality of markups and real wages in Korea

This paper examines the cyclical patterns of markups, real wages, and labor share for Korean industries. Markup ratio is greater than 1 in most industries. Markups are countercyclical, and real wages and labor share are procyclical. Income distribution effect has more impact on determining markups than price and technology effect.

Cyclicality of real wages and adjustment costs

This paper tackles the issue of the procyclicality of the real wage. We present a dynamic relationship between real wages and employment consistent with the long-run stationary equilibrium using a cointegrated VAR model. We find that wages are anticyclical and that a negative relationship between real wages and employment is necessary to achieve an economically identifiable stationary long run solution. The contentiousness of the topic does not appear so important once we recall some measurement issues and economic features of the Italian labour market.

A Note on Nominal Wage Rigidity and Real Wage Cyclicality

We discuss the ability of standard estimates of the correlation of wages and employment to measure the relative strength of aggregate demand and supply shocks, given that the choice of time period, deflator, and explanatory variables inherently biases the estimated cyclical coefficients toward identifying labor supply or demand. We determine that a closer look at the standard wage/labor correlation shows that it can neither provide information on the relative strength of supply and demand shocks, nor give an indication of the response of wages to aggregate demand shocks. Following this, we test the predictions of a neo-Keynesian model for the correlation of employment and wages using restrictions generated by the model to identify movements along or shifts in labor demand. Our results are consistent with the theory of nominal wage rigidity and we find no reason to reject the neo-Keynesian model based on the correlation of wages and employment.

Regular Adjustment of Financial Parameters of Social Protection Systems in Volatile Inflationary Environments

This paper addresses the problem of periodical adjustments of financial parameters which govern the revenue side of social protection systems and adjustments of social benefits‐in‐payment in a volatile visionary environment: in short, the indexation problem. It attempts to provide an insight into this problem by focusing on cyclical wage movements, usually ignored in economic and actuarial projections. Preliminary results are drawn from two numerical examples, showing impacts on social security finances, equity and consumption. Some general conclusions are drawn, notably the problem affects both pay‐as‐you‐go and funded systems. Essentially, in terms of adjustment as in other spheres, when it comes to addressing problems in the present, past experience is not necessarily the best basis for constructing a rational future.

Movements of Wages over the Business Cycle: An Intra-Firm View

This paper tests the hypothesis that firms adjust to the business cycle by altering employment through promotion and hiring and holding the salary structure and salaries assigned to jobs relatively constant. Two comprehensive firm-level panel datasets are used to examine salary setting and worker movement within firms. The salary structure is found to be rigid whereas promotion rates are cyclically sensitive. In contrast to the hypothesis, wage cyclicality in these two firms is driven by changes in salaries associated with jobs rather than by worker movement. An additional finding is that salaries in the two firms are countercyclical.

Movements of Wages over the Business Cycle: An Intra-Firm View

This paper tests the hypothesis that firms adjust to the business cycle by altering employment through promotion and hiring and holding the salary structure and salaries assigned to jobs relatively constant. Two comprehensive firm-level panel datasets are used to examine salary setting and worker movement within firms. The salary structure is found to be rigid whereas promotion rates are cyclically sensitive. In contrast to the hypothesis, wage cyclicality in these two firms is driven by changes in salaries associated with jobs rather than by worker movement. An additional finding is that salaries in the two firms are countercyclical.

Nominal and Real Wage Cyclicality during the Interwar Period

Although there have been numerous attempts to study the cyclicality of real wages in the U.S., no consensus has formed as to the implications of the various findings for business cycle theory. This paper will demonstrate that separating the real wage into its nominal and price level components can shed new light on the interwar U.S. labor market. More specifically, we will show that an evolution from a relatively laissez-faire labor market during the 1920s, to a more highly regulated labor market during the 1930s, may have resulted in a more countercyclical real wage rate. If we could be certain that equilibrium business cycle models provided the correct specification of the labor market then interpretation of real wage cyclicality would be relatively straightforward; during periods dominated by labor demand shocks real wages would move procyclically and during periods dominated by labor supply shocks real wages would move countercyclically. In a disequilibrium model context, however, interpretation of real wage cyclicality is much more problematic. If nominal wages are sticky, then unanticipated price level changes can induce countercyclical real wage movements that mimic the real wage movements generated by shifts in the supply of labor. Perhaps the most famous (and controversial) example occurred during the first three years of the Great Depression when a massive decline in hours worked and production was associated with a sharp increase in the aggregate real wage rate (see Figure 1). Even greater complexity results from governmental attempts to influence the aggregate nominal wage. Policies that attempt to artificially change the nominal wage rate can result in either procyclical or countercyclical real wages depending on whether the direct impact of changes in the price of labor on the quantity of labor demanded outweighs the impact of wage changes on aggregate demand, and output. Separating the aggregate real wage rate into its nominal and price level components will allow us to discriminate between these two hypotheses. If labor markets are correctly characterized by equilibrium models, then the price level and real wage are determined independently and separating the real wage into its nominal and price

Cyclicality of real wages among young men

This paper analyzes the cyclical behavior of real wages received by the young men in the National Longitudinal Surveys of labor market experience. It extends the studies by Bils ( Journal of Political Economy, 1985, 93, 666–689) and Tremblay ( Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 1990, 30, 90–101) by using the full duration of the survey and by examining differences in wage cyclicality across industries and between workers that change employers and those that stay with the same employer.

Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias?

In the period since the 1960s, as in other periods, aggregate time series on real wages have displayed only modest cyclicality. Macroeconomists therefore have described weak cyclicality of real wages as a salient feature of the business cycle. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, our analysis of longitudinal microdata indicates that real wages have been substantially procyclical since the 1960s. We show that the true procyclicality of real wages is obscured in aggregate time series because of a composition bias: the aggregate statistics are constructed in a way that gives more weight to low-skill workers during expansions than during recessions.

In-vehicle navigational devices: Effects on the safety of driver performance

Our analysis based on the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth for the 1978–1999 period concludes that men's greater representation in cyclical occupational groups, such as craftsmen, operatives, and laborers, more than accounts for the gap between men and women in the cyclicality of real wages.

Rigid wages or small equilibrium adjustments? Evidence from the contraction of 1893

Contrary to the conclusions drawn from some macroeconomic studies, U.S. labor markets could exhibit considerable cyclical wage rigidity even before World War I. Using disaggregated data from Cincinnati manufacturing firms during the 1893 contraction, I estimate a threshold or friction model of wage adjustment that distinguishes between impediments to wage cuts and wage cuts that were small but possibly market clearing. The wage adjustment process exhibited friction which was both statistically and economically significant and which varied with establishment size, capital intensity, and payment method. Worker resistance to wage cuts was a factor contributing to this pattern of wage rigidity.

Demand shocks, supply shocks and the cyclicality of real wages

The behaviour of real wages over the business cycle has received increasiing attention in recent years. The cyclicality of real wages constitues an important aspect of recent models of the business cycle. However,empirical studies undertaken to determine whether real wages are procyclical or countercyclical have reported conflicting findings. In thiis paper we use vector-autoregressions to analyse the cyclicality of real wages. We find that the source of the disturbance plays a decisive role in the cyclical behaviour of real wages. In particular, we demonstrate that a supply shock generates procyclical real wages,whereas a demand shock yields countercyclicality.

Was There a Golden Age of Flexible Wages? Evidence from Ohio Manufacturing, 1892–1910

Several macroeconomic studies have found evidence of diminishing cyclical wage flexibility in the United States since the turn of the century. But the importance of wage reductions during downturns must be questioned even for the era of allegedly flexible wages. This article shows that during the severe contractions of 1893 and 1908 only a small minority of Ohio manufacturing workers experienced cuts in their wage rates.The apparent downward flexibility of average earnings in these data was largely the consequence of changes in the occupational composition of the employed work force rather than pay cuts for individual workers.

Why are Wages Cyclical in the 1970s?

This article investigates cyclicality in real wages between 1969 and 1982, using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. There is little evidence that movements in and out of the labor market induced aggregate wage cyclicality during these years. However, cyclicality in the movement of workers between heterogeneous labor-market sectors affected aggregate wage cyclicality. While sector location is important, sector selectivity is not correlated with wages. Yet, even within sectors, cyclicality is present in real wages over this time period and is the result of cyclicality in overall wage levels, as well as in the coefficients associated with particular worker characteristics.

Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data

One topic on which Keynes did not disagree with classical economists was the cyclical behavior of real wages. Keynes (1936) as well as various classical writers predicted that real wages should move countercyclically. Quoting the General Theory (p. 17): "in general an increase in employment can only occur through the accompaniment of a decline in real wages. Thus, I am not disputing this vital fact which the classical economists have (rightly) asserted as indefeasible." This prediction is based on the premise of competition and a given short-run capital stock. Increases in employment then correspond to more intensive use of capital and, through diminishing product, lower real wages. For this reason, evidence by Dunlop (1938) and Tarshis (1939) that real wages move procyclically was viewed as paradoxical. Both Dunlop and Tarshis based their findings on an observed positive correlation between real and money wages, which, given the procyclical movement of money wages, implies a positive correlation between