Cyber Conflict Research Articles

Going nuclear: The development of American strategic conceptions about cyber conflict

ABSTRACT Futurist depictions of cyber-attacks in coming wars often portray them as bolts out of the blue that will cause immense damage to a nation’s warfighting capacity and create chaos among its populace by crippling its essential services. However, those depictions are based more on prophecy than they are on historical realities. The historical development of conceptions about cyber operations explains how those themes came to dominate national security discussions about cyber in the United States. Rather than being self-evident, the themes are a result of the application of early cyber efforts to strategic operations, advocacy that focused on doomsday scenarios to draw attention to cybersecurity problems, and the ease with which cyber threats were tied to the primary strategic narratives of American national security during their development.

A BRIEF STUDY OF INTERNATIONAL LAW IN THE AGE OF CYBERSECURITY

The rapid evolution of cyberspace has transformed the global landscape, giving rise to a complex and interconnected digital realm. As nations and individuals increasingly rely on digital technologies, the need to establish a robust framework for cybersecurity within the realm of international law has become paramount. This paper explores the evolving landscape of international law in the age of cybersecurity, focusing on key challenges, developments, and the imperative for international cooperation. The digital domain transcends geographical boundaries, making traditional notions of state sovereignty and jurisdiction inadequate for addressing cyber threats. This has necessitated the development of international norms and regulations to govern cyberspace. The paper delves into the prominent developments in international law, including the Tallinn Manual and the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts, which have sought to clarify the application of existing legal principles to cyberspace. Cybersecurity challenges such as state-sponsored cyberattacks, cyber espionage, and the weaponization of information have strained the existing framework of international law. The paper discusses the critical need for a consensus on defining cyberattacks and determining proportionate responses in accordance with the principles of self-defense and the law of armed conflict. Furthermore, this paper emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and the role of multilateral organizations in promoting cyber stability. It explores the potential for global cyber norms and confidence-building measures to enhance international security and reduce the risk of cyber conflict. However, as the digital age continues to reshape the global landscape, the adaptation and evolution of international law in response to cybersecurity challenges is imperative. The paper highlights the ongoing developments and challenges in this arena, underscoring the necessity for collaborative efforts among nations to establish a secure and stable digital environment for all. KEYWORDS: Cybersecurity, International Law, Cyberspace, Norms, Cooperation

Saving face in the cyberspace: Responses to public cyber intrusions in the Gulf

ABSTRACT How do states “save face” following a cyber intrusion directed at them? Recent scholarship demonstrates that the covert nature of cyber intrusions allows states to respond with restraint, avoiding escalation. But what happens when cyber intrusions become public and are highly visible? This article examines the rhetorical strategies employed by authoritarian Gulf states to mitigate the image-related costs associated with a public cyber intrusion. Drawing on the conceptual language of image-repair and crisis communication theories and employing discourse analysis of original data in Arabic, we identify three types of face-saving strategies: diminishing, self-complimenting, and accusing. Our findings indicate that intrusions involving leaking or faking information bring about unique “face-saving” strategies that do not only deal with the intrusion itself but also with the subsequent information crisis. Overall, the article identifies how states employ diverse rhetorical strategies—beyond attribution—to narrate cyber intrusions and keep cyber conflict contained.

Deter, Disrupt, or Deceive: Assessing Cyber Conflict as an Intelligence Contest

Deter, Disrupt, or Deceive: Assessing Cyber Conflict as an Intelligence Contest

Social Media Analytics on Russia–Ukraine Cyber War with Natural Language Processing: Perspectives and Challenges

Utilizing social media data is imperative in comprehending critical insights on the Russia–Ukraine cyber conflict due to their unparalleled capacity to provide real-time information dissemination, thereby enabling the timely tracking and analysis of cyber incidents. The vast array of user-generated content on these platforms, ranging from eyewitness accounts to multimedia evidence, serves as invaluable resources for corroborating and contextualizing cyber attacks, facilitating the attribution of malicious actors. Furthermore, social media data afford unique access to public sentiment, the propagation of propaganda, and emerging narratives, offering profound insights into the effectiveness of information operations and shaping counter-messaging strategies. However, there have been hardly any studies reported on the Russia–Ukraine cyber war harnessing social media analytics. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the crucial role of social-media-based cyber intelligence in understanding Russia’s cyber threats during the ongoing Russo–Ukrainian conflict. This paper introduces an innovative multidimensional cyber intelligence framework and utilizes Twitter data to generate cyber intelligence reports. By leveraging advanced monitoring tools and NLP algorithms, like language detection, translation, sentiment analysis, term frequency–inverse document frequency (TF-IDF), latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), Porter stemming, n-grams, and others, this study automatically generated cyber intelligence for Russia and Ukraine. Using 37,386 tweets originating from 30,706 users in 54 languages from 13 October 2022 to 6 April 2023, this paper reported the first detailed multilingual analysis on the Russia–Ukraine cyber crisis in four cyber dimensions (geopolitical and socioeconomic; targeted victim; psychological and societal; and national priority and concerns). It also highlights challenges faced in harnessing reliable social-media-based cyber intelligence.

A Healthy Game-Theoretic Evaluation of NATO and Indonesia's Policies in the Context of International Law

This study examines the policies of two prominent actors, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Indonesia while considering their adherence to international law. The analysis is conducted through the lens of game theory, which provides a framework for evaluating strategic interactions in the cyber domain. This study aims to explore how game theory can be applied to assess the policies of NATO and Indonesia in combating and to establish the link between game-theoretic evaluation and conflict resolution in Indonesia's cyber landscape. By understanding strategic interactions and motivations of various actors, this study seeks to provide insights into fostering international cooperation, promoting responsible state behavior, and enhancing cybersecurity. This study employs a qualitative research design, relying on literature reviews, policy analyses, and case studies to examine the cybersecurity policies of NATO and Indonesia. Game theory serves as the primary analytical framework to model cyber conflicts and interactions between different actors. The policies of NATO and Indonesia are evaluated concerning cooperation, competition, and compliance with international law. The analysis reveals that both NATO and Indonesia employ distinct approaches to combating. NATO's collective response emphasizes coordination, information sharing, and cooperative defense strategies, reinforcing international cybersecurity efforts. On the other hand, Indonesia's response is shaped by its unique challenges and priorities, leading to tailored policies and collaborations. Game-theoretic evaluation establishes the importance of cooperation, deterrence, and adherence to international law in resolving conflicts arising from cyber threats in Indonesia. This research highlights the significance of international partnerships, capacity building, and context-specific best practices for a more secure digital environment in Indonesia and beyond. Ultimately, game-theoretic evaluation proves instrumental in shaping effective cybersecurity strategies and promoting responsible behavior in the ever-evolving cyber landscape.

The Philosophy of Cyber Diplomacy. How Does Society Mitigate Cyber Conflict Through Cyber Diplomacy?

The Philosophy of Cyber Diplomacy. How Does Society Mitigate Cyber Conflict Through Cyber Diplomacy?

Preventing the escalation of cyber conflicts: towards an approach to plausibly assure the non-involvement in a cyberattack

While cyberspace has evolved into a commonly shared space vital to our individual lives and societies, malicious cyber activities by state actors as part of espionage operations, regarding defense strategies, or as part of traditional conflicts have strongly increased. In contrast, attributing the origin of such activities remains problematic. The ambiguity of digital data raises the problem of misinterpreting available information, increasing the risk of misinformed reactions and conflict escalation. In order to reduce this risk, this paper proposes a transparency system based on technologies which usually already exist for IT security measures that an accused actor in a specific incident can use to provide credible information which plausibly assures his non-involvement. The paper analyses the technical requirements, presents the technical concept and discusses the necessary adjustments to existing IT networks for its implementation. Intended as a measure for conflict de-escalation, the paper further discusses the limitations of this approach, especially with regard to technical limits as well as the political motivation and behavior of states.

Beyond Conventional War: Cyber Attacks and the Interpretation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter

In this study, we delve into the connection between cyber-attacks and Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which forbids the use of force. We investigate warfare's historical backdrop, the shift from traditional to nontraditional tactics, and cyber warfare's emergence. We classify various cyber-attack forms and showcase pivotal case studies that underscore their effects on national and global security. The paper delves into a comprehensive analysis of the UN Charter, particularly Article 2(4), discussing its intent, history, and interpretation. Our research tackles difficulties in applying Article 2(4) to nontraditional warfare like cyber-attacks. We scrutinize legal viewpoints and academic arguments regarding whether such attacks fall under force as per Article 2(4) while contemplating the potential consequences of interpreting it so. We explore how these findings may influence prospective cyber conflicts while offering suggestions for managing hurdles presented by such situations within international law's framework. This study deepens our comprehension of the interplay between cyber-attacks and the UN Charter's Article 2(4), enriching policy debates and promoting continued examination in this rapidly evolving domain.

The Role of Nato in Enhancing Ukraine's Cybersecurity during Times of Conflict

This study aims to analyze the impact of NATO support on Ukraine which is in a conflict situation with Russia. Ukraine has taken a step forward to strengthen its ties with NATO by signing an agreement to formalize its participation in the security alliance's Joint Center for Advanced Technologies in Cyber Defense (CCDCOE). This study will discover how this action will affect the tensions in the Cyber Security System between Ukraine and Russia. In order to find the answer, it is necessary to identify the motives by using qualitative research design through secondary sources in the form of official state documents and secondary sources in the form of journals, dissertations and related research. The result of this study conluded NATO’s involvement in the cyber war between UkraineRussia is quite substantial and greatly influenced the course of the war, this is what motivated the researcher to conduct further studies and see what influences were given., regardless of the difficult to collect the information. This study might help us understand the situation of Cyber Conflict between Ukraine-Russia and predicts the potential consequences from this action, and hopefully give us more informations to analyze and evaluate to find the best solution of this existing conflict.

Learning to trust Skynet: Interfacing with artificial intelligence in cyberspace

ABSTRACT The use of AI to automate defense and intelligence tasks is increasing. And yet, little is known about how algorithmic analyses, data capture, and decisions will be perceived by elite decision-makers. This article presents the results of two experiments that explore manifestations of AI systems in the cyber conflict decision-making loop. Though findings suggest that technical expertise positively impacts respondents’ ability to gauge the potential utility and credibility of an input (indicating that training can, in fact, overcome bias), the perception of human agency in the loop even in the presence of AI inputs mitigates this effect and makes decision-makers more willing to operate on less information. This finding is worrying given the extensive challenges involved in effectively building human oversight and opportunity for intervention into any effective employment of AI for national security purposes. The article considers these obstacles and potential solutions in the context of data gathered.

Bridging the Digital Gap: Teaching Cyber Strategy and Policy through a Crisis Simulation

Abstract This article details an attempt to bridge the gulf between information technology (IT) and social science approaches to cybersecurity using a simulation. Digital affairs are increasingly central to public policy, and yet the subject's incorporation within political science education has been hamstrung by an underlying disciplinary divide and lack of familiarity. Despite their differences, both IT and political science have strong traditions of utilizing active learning methods and simulation to achieve learning outcomes. Drawing on this shared pedagogy, we created an interdisciplinary simulation that leverages elements of digital forensics to provide students with a unique, active learning experience of responding to a national cybersecurity crisis. The simulation was fielded during an intermediate level class on cyber conflict and generated an overwhelmingly positive response. Students credited the exercise with helping them better understand the unique characteristics of cyberspace as a geopolitical domain and appreciated how the lack of an IT background was not a barrier to addressing cyber policy issues.

The Role of Third Parties in Cyber Conflicts: The sima Simulator

New media creates opportunities to directly measure how adolescents respond to aggressive situations. In this study, we report on sima, a simulator of digital chats, created to mimic online aggressive interactions within a conflict situation. Adolescents were invited to be part of a digital chat where all interactions were pre-programmed, except for the participants’ interventions, to discuss controversial topics (e.g., animal maltreatment). Two chat members engaged in a conflict programmed to escalate quickly through aggressive insults. Sixth and seventh-grade students (mostly aged 12 to 14; n = 287) from one public school (low ses) and one private school (high ses) participated in the study. Responses to open questions after finishing the chat suggest that the great majority considered that they were taking part in a real online interaction. Aggressive offenses towards other members of the chat were very common. sima opens many options for further research about bystander behavior in aggressive online interactions.

РЕАЛЬНІ ТА ПОТЕНЦІЙНІ ЗАГРОЗИ ЦИФРОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

The constant progress of science and technology, as well as the means of processing and transmitting information and the Internet in particular, has led to the massive spread of digital tools in all aspects of social activity. This leads to a major transformation of the economic and industrial infrastructure, has a significant positive effect on business development, but also has a corresponding effect on the development of crime. Thus, real and potential threats require special attention, particularly in the context of the global security crisis, the spread of wars and armed hybrid conflicts, and the increasing use of digital infrastructure for military purposes. The methods used in the paper include statistical, general mathematical, comparative, dialectical, systematic approach, and system analysis. The graphical method was used to build graphs, and presentation of the study uses the historical method. This article chronologically reveals the consistently contradictory role of economic digitalization in the state’s economic security in times of war. Based on the experience of the digital sector of six countries in four cyber conflicts, the advantages and disadvantages of digital infrastructure in wartime are summarized. The reserve capacity created by the digitalization of the economy to ensure the economic security of the state in the context of hostilities and post-war recovery was assessed. The specificity and possibilities of striking digital infrastructure together with the use of digital technologies in modern conventional wars are analyzed. The dual impact of digital technologies on the security of the state and the sustainability of the national economy is highlighted. The dynamics and effects of Russian cyberattacks against Estonia, Georgia, and Ukraine in the short and long term are analyzed. The effectiveness of counteracting threats to Ukrainian economic security in the digital sphere during the war is proven. The article substantiates further steps to ensure the security of Ukraine's digital economy proactively. The article has practical implications for the development of state policy on measures to ensure economic security in the digital aspect. It can also be used for further systematic study of cyber warfare and threats to the digitalization of the national economy.

The Estonian Tradition of International Law

This article introduces the Baltic Yearbook of International Law volume on the Estonian tradition of international law. It interprets the comparative and translational role of the Estonian tradition of international law as a Western borderland physically close to Russia, and thematises this argument through historical examples going back several centuries. Topics discussed include the role of historical figures such as Olaus Hermelin, the 19th century legal positivists in international law, and the founders of the German Ostrecht tradition. The article also examines key Estonian positions in international law such as the role of international law in the UN, international law in cyber conflicts and other issues. One of the conclusions is that international law is an existentially important matter for small States such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The law alteration on artificial intelligence in reducing Islamic bank’s profit and loss sharing risk

Artificial Intelligence is categorized into the domain of computer science focused on creating intelligent machines that function like humans. Artificial Intelligence supports institutions including Islamic Financial Services in learning, making decisions, and providing useful predictive analytics. The progress and promise that artificial intelligence has made and presented in finance have so far been remarkable, allowing for cheaper, faster, closer, more accessible, more lucrative, and more efficient finance especially during the pandemic Covid-19 when people are required to stay at home yet still doing a banking transaction. Despite the incredible progress and promise made possible by advances in financial artificial intelligence, it nevertheless presents some serious perils and limitations. Three categories of risks and limitations involve the rise of virtual threats and cyber conflicts in the financial system, society's behavioral changes, and legal amendments that cannot respond to technological developments, especially in developing countries. The main objective of this article is to evaluate the operations of the potential risks that may arise in the use of Artificial Intelligence in Islamic finance services, especially dealing with the legal arrangement that is supposed to be in line with business development. Indonesia is a country that adheres to civil law system, in which every legal arrangement is supposed to be based on written law. The lack of this legal system is where the speed of legal changes cannot keep up with the pace of technological development, which is present as a hinder to the development of Artificial Intelligence in the financial system. This article concludes that Artificial Intelligence will have a huge impact in the future on the Islamic Finance industry, but in the Indonesian context, it still needs various efforts to reduce the potential risk that eventually has a big impact on the progress of Islamic banks.

Conflict Management in Cyberspace – An Analytical Study

With the information revolution, a new form of power emerged, which is cyber power, where some countries use the capabilities provided by cyberspace for several considerations, foremost of which are security and military power. Here, a new dimension has emerged in international conflicts, which is the management of cyberspace conflicts, where one party to the conflict can inflict heavy losses on the other party and cause paralysis of its information and communication infrastructure, which causes military and economic losses. For example, by cutting off communication systems between military units and each other, misleading their information, stealing confidential information about them, manipulating and falsifying economic and financial data, or even erasing them from computers. In light of this transformation in cyberspace, as a new field of international interactions, the case of its work in civil uses and others of a military nature emerged, and violent, hostile activities crystallized in the phenomenon of cyber conflicts, which was characterized by the multiplicity of its manifestations, characteristics and actors, and its emergence through two main directions: a trend related to the work of Soft power in managing conflict through cyberspace, and the other direction is related to employing hard power in managing this conflict.

The role of gender in providing expert advice on cyber conflict and artificial intelligence for military personnel.

This article draws upon original qualitative interview data with Norwegian male and female cyberengineer cadets at the Norwegian Cyber Defense Academy, who could in the future be working with AI-enabled systems in a variety of positions throughout the Norwegian military. The interviews explored how these cadets feel they as cyberengineers will be perceived in their future positions in the military, what challenges they feel they may face, and how gender may play a role in this. Different cyberengineers expressed concern about being able to communicate the cyber domain to their non-technology specialist colleagues due to the increasing complexity of new technologies. Gender appeared to be playing a role in this concern as the women interviewed expressed specific concerns that they feel as women, that they do not fit the stereotype of who is a cyberengineer, while some of the men felt that as cyberengineers they were seen as embodying a nerd masculinity, and that these gendered perceptions has implications for how they feel others perceive their competence levels. The findings from this article highlights gendered hierarchies in the military and the need for military institutions to focus on developing communication skills among those working with cyber operations. As the role of cyber is expected to grow in military operations, cyberengineers will need to find ways of communicating effectively with non-specialists—especially as complex AI-enabled systems are introduced. Finally, this paper argues the need for military institutions to take gender into account for this training and need for gender-sensitive policies.

Relativity Approach to the Strategic Cyber Conflict Management in Businesses

Purpose: The study aims to form a theoretical basis for the development of strategies needed by businesses and establish strategic principles. The starting point of this research is that cyber conflict is an operational, managerial, relational, and strategic problem of businesses rather than a cross-country administrative problem. 
 Design/methodology/approach: This research was carried out by adopting grounded theory, known as theorizing-based theory. The study was carried out with 593 limited liability and joint-stock companies operating in Turkey. 
 Findings: The research results revealed a new theory named "relativity of strategic cyber conflict management". According to the research findings, the five orbital forces (negotiation, managerial, infrastructure, defense, competition) were determined in cyber conflict management. Four principles were determined as a business within the system (location in space), the business within cyber cosmos (relativity of time), warping spacetime due to cyber conflict (Curvature of strategy), and illusions due to cyber conflict (Gravitational lenses).
 Originality: This study introduces a new theory of the cyber conflict management with the inspiration of the principles of relativity theory.

The Cyber Dimension of the Russia–Ukraine War

The cyber dimension to the Russia–Ukraine war has been extensive. It reveals the characteristics of modern cyber conflict between well-matched states. While its predominant component has been a massive online ‘information’ battle for hearts and minds, comprehensibly amplified by private cyber-vigilante individuals and groups, it has also involved a large and concerted Russian campaign to disrupt Ukrainian critical infrastructure. This has been largely blunted by the soundness of Ukrainian cyber security, bolstered by Western assistance. Nevertheless, the risk remains that the cyber conflict could escalate beyond cyberspace to a more widespread confrontation between Russia and NATO. The chances of this happening are increased by uncertainty over the true nature of cyber operations, their responsible use, and especially how international law applies to them, making the efforts of states to address these issues urgently needed.