Cut-off Lows Research Articles

Statistics and Meteorology of Cutoff Lows over South Africa 1970–2023

The meteorology of cutoff lows over South Africa is characterized by statistical analysis of daily field data in the period 1970–2023. An index is formulated by subtracting 500 hPa geopotential height in the mid-latitudes from the subtropics. Cutoff lows (COL) are identified by positive values, mostly in autumn and spring. Statistics indicate that climate forcing is seasonal: La Nina/El Nino favors COL in March–May/September–November. Hemispheric regressions reveal anomalous highs across the southern mid-latitudes when COL are frequent over South Africa. A 14-case composite was formed from the most intense daily COL events in autumn and spring. The composite shows a NW- tilted Rossby wave and jet stream loop around the COL. Maritime easterlies induce a warm east—cool west SST pattern, but composite moist inflows are shallow, so stormy weather hugs the coastal plains. Overturning circulations meet in an upper-level “saddle” over South Africa. 500 hPa sinking motions to the Southwest are of similar strength to rising motions to the Northeast. A COL case study exhibited hourly rain rates >10 mm at Port Alfred 18–20 October 2012 fed by tropical inflow. New insights emerged from this study via composite height sections over South Africa.

Deepening mechanisms of cut-off lows in the Southern Hemisphere and the role of jet streams: insights from eddy kinetic energy analysis

Abstract. Cut-off lows (COLs) exhibit diverse structures and lifecycles, ranging from confined upper-tropospheric systems to deep, multi-level vortex structures. While COL climatologies are well documented, the mechanisms driving their deepening remain unclear. To bridge this gap, a novel track matching algorithm applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis investigates the vertical extent of Southern Hemisphere COLs. Composite analysis based on structure and eddy kinetic energy budget differentiates four COL categories: shallow, deep, weak, and strong, revealing similarities and disparities. Deep, strong COLs concentrate around Australia and the southwestern Pacific, peaking in autumn and spring, while shallow, weak COLs are more common in summer and closer to the Equator. Despite their differences, both contrasting types evolve energetically via anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking. The distinct roles of jet streams in affecting COL types are addressed: intense polar front jets correlate with more deep COLs, whereas stronger subtropical jets relate to fewer shallow COLs. The COL deepening typically occurs in the presence of a robust upstream polar front jet, which enhances ageostrophic flux convergence and baroclinic processes. The subtropical jet positively correlates with COL intensity but weakens when considering the seasonality, suggesting uncertainties in this relationship. Additionally, we highlight the significance of diabatic processes in COL deepening, addressing their misrepresentation in reanalysis and emphasizing the need for more observational and modelling studies to refine the energetic framework.

Sharp increase in Saharan dust intrusions over the western Euro-Mediterranean in February–March 2020–2022 and associated atmospheric circulation

Abstract. During the months of February–March (FM) of the 2020–2022 period, several intense dust intrusions from northern Africa affected Europe. The frequency of dust events was exceptional, considering that wintertime is the season with minimum dust activity in the Mediterranean, and some episodes displayed a duration and/or intensity never recorded before, affecting large areas of the western Euro-Mediterranean (WEM) region. The main objective of this work is to construct a catalogue of FM dust events over the WEM for the 2003–2022 period based on satellite aerosol retrievals and to analyse their atmospheric drivers at the synoptic and large scales, paying special attention to the recent 2020–2022 period of high dust activity. Overall, our results indicate large intraseasonal and interannual variability in the occurrence of wintertime dust events over the WEM. Dust events of FM 2020–2022 were characterized by enhanced dust concentration and high maximum altitudes in comparison with those of previous years (2003–2019). WEM dust events are associated with enhanced activity of high-pressure systems over the Euro-Atlantic sector, which favour the obstruction of the westerlies and the occurrence of cut-off lows at subtropical latitudes. However, these high-pressure systems can exhibit a large variety of configurations, including meridional dipole blocking patterns with poleward shifted jets or Mediterranean subtropical ridges with an intensified mid-latitude jet. The former is the dominant favourable pattern for WEM dust occurrence, but the latter was relatively common during the 2020–2022 period.

Air Quality Changes under the Influence of Cut-Off Lows and Omega Blocking Patterns and Associated Health Risks in a Coastal Mediterranean Region: Case of Bizerte, Northern Tunisia

The study of the daily and diurnal variability of NO, NO2, surface O3 and PM10 was carried out in urban Bizerte (Northern Tunisia), from January to March, 2013. The main results showed three distinct periods depending on multi-scale sources and meteorology. The first period, (≈20% of total cases) influenced by moderately stable conditions, was characterized by a slight excess of NO due to traffic emissions. The second period, (≈ 60% of total cases) associated with moderately unstable conditions, was devoid of any significant impact of sources. The third period, (≈ 20% of total cases) distinguished by noteworthy excess of O3 and PM10, was attributed to a marked effect of succeeding Cut-off lows and Omega blocking patterns. Under these conditions, the scatter plots of NO, NO2, and O3 versus NOx for daytime and nighttime showed good polynomial fit curves with high R2 values for NO and NO2 only. Under both moderately unstable and stable conditions, significant negative correlation coefficients between O3 and NOx were found to be 0.53 (p < 0.05) and 0.50 (p < 0.05) for daytime and nighttime, respectively. Under Cut-off lows and Omega, an absence of any significant correlations between O3 and NOx was noticed. Under Cut-off lows, the good linear regression fits between OX (=O3 + NO2) and NOx illustrated high NOx independent contributions, possibly attributed to the biogenic VOCs effect. The investigation of the air quality index (AQI) for NO2, PM10 and O3 (running 8-h mean) highlighted the significant effect of both O3 and PM10 only under Cut-off lows and Omega which were retraced by poor to very poor air quality categories.

Changes in Weather Systems during Anomalously Wet and Dry Years in Southeastern Australia

Abstract This study focuses on the rainfall-producing weather systems in the southern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. These weather systems are divided into objects: cyclones, fronts, anticyclones, warm conveyor belt (WCB) inflows, WCB ascents, potential vorticity (PV) streamers, and cutoff lows. We investigate the changes in the frequency, amplitude, and relative position of these objects as the daily and seasonal rainfall change. Days on which the rainfall is heavy, especially in winter, are characterized by more PV streamers, cutoff lows, cyclones, fronts, and WCBs in the region. In contrast, dry days are characterized by more anticyclones over southeastern Australia in winter and summer. The effect of upper-level weather objects (PV streamers and cutoff lows) on lower-level objects, and their importance in producing rainfall, is quantified using the quasigeostrophic ω equation and separating the vertical motion into that induced by the upper and lower levels. On heavy rainfall days in winter, PV streamers and cutoff lows force strong upward motion in the lower troposphere, promoting cyclogenesis at lower levels, forcing ascent in the WCBs, and producing rain downstream of the southern MDB. Lower-level ascent forced by upper-level objects is important for the development of heavy rainfall in both seasons, although particularly in winter. Rainfall is attributed to individual objects. PV streamers and WCBs contribute most to the winter and summer rainfall, respectively. The difference in rainfall between anomalously wet and dry years can be explained in winter by the changes in the rainfall associated with PV streamers, whereas in summer it is mostly due to a reduction in the rainfall associated with WCBs. Significance Statement The aim of the present study is to better understand how synoptic-scale weather systems differ in southeastern Australia in dry and wet periods, by considering a wide range of weather systems. We found weather systems are more closely aligned in the vertical on heavy rainfall days, and the majority of rainfall in this region is associated with warm conveyor belts. These results point to warm conveyor belts being an important, but not well recognized, contributor to rainfall in this region. Future work may investigate the roles of the various modes of variability and climate change in modulating warm conveyor belts and hence the regional rainfall variability in Australia.

A glacial lake outburst floods hazard assessment in the Patagonian Andes combining inventory data and case-studies

We present a glacial-related lake inventory for a region spanning 41.5° - 47° S in Patagonian Andes, where information on past glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF's) has hitherto remained significantly underreported. Analyzing remotely sensed images, we obtained data on 702 glacial-related lakes. Through detailed geomorphic assessments and manual supervision, we revised current inventories and added 35 GLOFs triggered from moraine/bedrock dammed lakes failures. The regional GLOF inventory presented contains information on 71 historical failures of moraine/bedrock dammed glacial lakes. From this database we analyzed outburst timing and managed to constrain 37 events occurrences within a period of 1 year. Around 40 % of them have occurred since the early 2000's, most of them originating from lakes probably formed as a delayed response to the glacial retreat imposed by the end of the Little Ice Age. On the other hand, we analyzed meteorological conditions for a sub-set of 10 events constrained within a 10-days period, finding a strong link between atmospheric rivers, cut-off lows impacting the southern Andes, and GLOFs. Only one case is likely to have been triggered by a Mw 4.9 earthquake. Based on topographic potential for avalanching, we estimated GLOF hazard potential, recognizing at least 3 subregions with high hazard, which moreover can be highly susceptible to climate conditions that regionally affect GLOF occurrence.

Classification of synoptic processes in the territory of Ukraine using a modified Jenkinson and Collison method

During the year, the territory of Ukraine is under the influence of various synoptic processes, which have a certain evolution in the surface conditions of the region and sometimes lead to the formation of unfavorable and dangerous weather conditions. The classification of synoptic processes makes it possible to create a set of daily synoptic situations taking into account the characteristics of a certain region, both for their use in weather forecasting and for studying the dynamics of regional synoptic processes under climate change. In this study, the modified version of Jenkinson and Collison method is used to classify synoptic processes on the territory of Ukraine, which is based on pressure data at the sea surface level and the geopotential heights at the level 500 hPa. The analysis of the obtained set of daily types of atmospheric circulation for the period 1948-2021 and the composite pressure fields built for each circulation type showed that all synoptic situations are clearly defined according to the classification and have seasonal features of frequency. During the year, advective processes of the western circulation group prevail, eastern advection is also often observed, and this type of circulation dominates in the spring months. The processes of the southern group are most relevant on the cold period of the year. Anticyclones occur more often over the region in winter and autumn, and cyclones are observed in summer and spring. The inclusion of 500 hPa level data in the classification makes it possible to take into account the three-dimensional structure of synoptic objects and distinguish such types of circulation as low cyclones and cold anticyclones, as well as troughs and cut-off lows at heights. It was found that low (thermal) cyclones and anticyclones make up a small proportionof synoptic situations, so the feasibility of their further inclusion in the typification for the territory of Ukraine is being discussed. The processes associated with the cut-off lows at the upper levels turned out to quite rare, but due to the possibility of the formation of dangerous weather conditions, this type of circulation is necessary in the classification of regional synoptic processes.

Coherent amplification of the Okhotsk high, Korean trough, and northwestern Pacific subtropical high during heavy rainfall over Japan in August 2021

In August 2021, rain front stagnation in Japan resulted in prolonged and disastrous rainfall across the entire country. During the heavy rainfall period, the large-scale atmospheric field over the East Asian–western North Pacific region was characterized by meridional tripolar circulation anomalies: the Okhotsk high (OH), the trough over the Korean Peninsula (Korean trough), and the northwestern Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH). Simultaneously, tropical convective activity was enhanced over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed over the tropical western–central Pacific. This study investigates the dynamic mechanism of linkage of the extratropical tripolar anomalies and the effects of tropical convective modulation using a reanalysis dataset, a cutoff low detection scheme, the potential vorticity inversion method, and numerical experiments. Upper-tropospheric blocking over eastern Siberia connected to the surface OH is conducive to the stagnation of synoptic depressions, including cutoff lows and troughs, over the Korean Peninsula, contributing to the development and maintenance of the quasi-stationary Korean trough. Rossby waves emanating from the Korean trough excite an anticyclonic anomaly over the northwestern Pacific. This upper-level anomalous anticyclone acts to enhance the surface NWPSH through zonal heat transport, accompanied by a northward tilting structure with height. Simultaneously, the tropical intraseasonal oscillation is amplified over the Indo–western Pacific Ocean sector under the negative-phase Indian Ocean dipole and multi-year La Niña conditions. The combination of enhanced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and suppressed convection across the tropical western–central Pacific reinforces the NWPSH. The anomalous circulation associated with the extratropical tripolar pattern and concurrent tropical heat forcing causes more moisture transport, convergence, and anomalous ascent, which contribute to heavy rainfall in Japan. These results suggest that the dynamically correlated amplification of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies plays a crucial role in precipitation variability in East Asia.

Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics

The Summer Olympic Games in 2024 will take place during the apex of the temperature seasonal cycle in the Paris Area. The mid-latitudes of the Northern hemisphere have witnessed a few intense heatwaves since the 2003 event. Those heatwaves have had environmental and health impacts, which often came as surprises. In this paper, we search for the most extreme heatwaves in Ile-de-France that are physically plausible, under climate change scenarios, for the decades around 2024. We circumvent the sampling limitation by applying a rare event algorithm on CMIP6 data to evaluate the range of such extremes. We find that the 2003 record can be exceeded by more than 4 °C in Ile-de-France before 2050, with a combination of prevailing anticyclonic conditions and cut-off lows. This study intends to raise awareness of those unprecedented events, against which our societies are ill-prepared, in spite of adaptation measures designed from previous events. Those results could be extended to other areas of the world.

Displacement Error Characteristics of 500-hPa Cutoff Lows in Operational GFS Forecasts

Abstract Cutoff lows are often associated with high-impact weather; therefore, it is critical that operational numerical weather prediction systems accurately represent the evolution of these features. However, medium-range forecasts of upper-level features using the Global Forecast System (GFS) are often subjectively characterized by excessive synoptic progressiveness, i.e., a tendency to advance troughs and cutoff lows too quickly downstream. To better understand synoptic progressiveness errors, this research quantifies seven years of 500-hPa cutoff low position errors over the globe, with the goal of objectively identifying regions where synoptic progressiveness errors are common and how frequently these errors occur. Specifically, 500-hPa features are identified and tracked in 0–240-h 0.25° GFS forecasts during April 2015–March 2022 using an objective cutoff low and trough identification scheme and compared to corresponding 500-hPa GFS analyses. In the Northern Hemisphere, cutoff lows are generally underrepresented in forecasts compared to verifying analyses, particularly over continental midlatitude regions. Features identified in short- to long-range forecasts are generally associated with eastward zonal position errors over the conterminous United States and northern Asia, particularly during the spring and autumn. Similarly, cutoff lows over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes are characterized by an eastward displacement bias during all seasons. Significance Statement Cutoff lows are often associated with high-impact weather, including excessive rainfall, winter storms, and severe weather. GFS forecasts of cutoff lows over the United States are often subjectively noted to advance cutoff lows too quickly downstream, and thus limit forecast skill in potentially impactful scenarios. Therefore, this study quantifies the position error characteristics of cutoff lows in recent GFS forecasts. Consistent with typically anecdotal impressions of cutoff low position errors, this analysis demonstrates that cutoff lows over North America and central Asia are generally associated with an eastward position bias in medium- to long-range GFS forecasts. These results suggest that additional research to identify both environmental conditions and potential model deficiencies that may exacerbate this eastward bias would be beneficial.

Convection-parameterized and convection-permitting modelling of heavy precipitation in decadal simulations of the greater Alpine region with COSMO-CLM

Abstract. Heavy precipitation is a challenging phenomenon with high impact on human lives and infrastructure, and thus a better modelling of its characteristics can improve understanding and simulation at climate timescales. The achievement of convection-permitting modelling (CPM) resolutions (Δx&lt;4 km) has brought relevant advancements in its representation. However, further research is needed on how the very high resolution and switching-off of the convection parameterization affects the representation of processes related to heavy precipitation. In this study, we evaluate reanalysis-driven simulations for the greater Alpine area over the period 2000–2015 and assess the differences in representing heavy precipitation and other model variables in a CPM setup with a grid size of 3 km and a regional climate model (RCM) setup at 25 km resolution using the COSMO-CLM model. We validate our simulations against high-resolution observations (E-OBS (ENSEMBLES observations), HYRAS (Hydrometeorologische Rasterdatensätze), MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation), and UWYO (University of Wyoming)). The study presents a revisited version of the precipitation severity index (PSI) for severe event detection, which is a useful method to detect severe events and is flexible for prioritizing long-lasting events and episodes affecting typically drier areas. Furthermore, we use principal component analysis (PCA) to obtain the main modes of heavy precipitation variance and the associated synoptic weather types (WTs). The PCA showed that four WTs suffice to explain the synoptic situations associated with heavy precipitation in winter, due to stationary fronts and zonal flow regimes. Whereas in summer, five WTs are needed to classify the majority of heavy precipitation events. They are associated with upper-level elongated troughs over western Europe, sometimes evolving into cutoff lows, or with winter-like situations of strong zonal circulation. The results indicate that CPM represents higher precipitation intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates for extremes detection, and an improved representation of heavy precipitation amount and structure for selected events compared to RCM. However, CPM overestimates grid point precipitation rates, which agrees with findings in past literature. CPM systematically represents more precipitation at the mountain tops. However, the RCMs may show large intensities in other regions. Integrated water vapour and equivalent potential temperature at 850 hPa are systematically larger in RCM compared to CPM in heavy precipitation situations (up to 2 mm and 3 K, respectively) due to wetter mid-level conditions and an intensified latent heat flux over the sea. At the ground level, CPM emits more latent heat than RCM over land (15 W m−2), bringing larger specific humidity north of the Alps (1 g kg−1) and higher CAPE (convective available potential energy) values (100 J kg−1). RCM, on the contrary simulates a wetter surface level over Italy and the Mediterranean Sea. Surface temperatures in RCM are up to 2 ∘C higher in RCM than in CPM. This causes outgoing longwave radiation to be larger in RCM compared to CPM over those areas (10 W m−2). Our analysis emphasizes the improvements of CPM for heavy precipitation modelling and highlights the differences against RCM that should be considered when using COSMO-CLM climate simulations.

Characteristics of Nepartak (2021), a subtropical cyclone controlled by an upper‐tropospheric cutoff low

AbstractThis study investigated the structural and track change of cyclone Nepartak occurred over the western North Pacific in July 2021, a cyclone appeared at the surface level, using ERA5 data, focusing on the relationship with an upper‐tropospheric cutoff low (COL). The COL was shown to dominate the structural change of Nepartak which developed as a subtropical cyclone with a hybrid structure. As the surface cyclone approached the COL, it was overlapped by the COL and became a cyclone with a two‐storied structure, resulting in its abrupt track change. An analysis of the potential vorticity (PV) tendency showed that the movement of Nepartak toward the COL ceased because of the counter‐balance of the horizontal/vertical PV advection with the PV anomaly generated by diabatic heating, whereas the surface cyclone northward motion was primarily due to the horizontal PV advection associated with the COL. Nepartak is a case in which changes in the structure and track of a cyclone are controlled by a COL.

Subseasonal Prediction of Early-summer Northeast Asian Cut-off Lows by BCC-CSM2-HR and GloSea5

Northeast Asian cut-off lows are crucial cyclonic systems that can bring temperature and precipitation extremes over large areas. Skillful subseasonal forecasting of Northeast Asian cut-off lows is of great importance. Using two dynamical forecasting systems, one from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC-CSM2-HR) and the other from the Met Office (GloSea5), this study assesses simulation ability and subseasonal prediction skill for early-summer Northeast Asian cut-off lows. Both models are shown to have good ability in representing the spatial structure of cut-off lows, but they underestimate the intensity. The skillful prediction time scales for cut-off low intensity are about 10.2 days for BCC-CSM2-HR and 11.4 days for GloSea5 in advance. Further examination shows that both models can essentially capture the initial Rossby wave train, rapid growth and decay processes responsible for the evolution of cut-off lows, but the models show weaker amplitudes for the three-stage processes. The underestimated simulated strength of both the Eurasian midlatitude and East Asian subtropical jets may lead to the weaker local eddy-mean flow interaction responsible for the cut-off low evolution.

Cut-Off Lows over South Africa: A Review

Every year, cut-off low (COL) pressure systems produce severe weather conditions and heavy rainfall, often leading to flooding, devastation and disruption of socio-economic activities in South Africa. COLs are defined as cold-cored synoptic-scale mid-tropospheric low-pressure systems which occur in the mid-latitudes and cause persistent heavy rainfall. As they occur throughout the year, these weather systems are important rainfall producing systems that are also associated with extreme cold conditions and snowfalls. An in-depth review of COLs is critical due to their high impacts which affect some parts of the country regularly, affecting lives and livelihoods. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the literature on COLs over the South African domain, whilst also comparing them with their Southern Hemisphere counterparts occurring in South America and Australia. We focus on the occurrence, development, propagation, dynamical processes and impacts of COLs on society and the environment. We also seek to understand stratospheric–tropospheric exchanges resulting from tropopause folding during the occurrence of COLs. Sometimes, COLs may extend to the surface, creating conditions conducive to extreme rainfall and high floods over South Africa, especially when impinged on the coastal escarpment. The slow propagation of COLs appears to be largely modulated by a quasi-stationary high-pressure system downstream acting as a blocking system. We also reviewed two severe COL events that occurred over the south and east coasts and found that in both cases, interactions of the low-level flow with the escarpment enhanced lifting and deep convection. It was also determined from the literature that several numerical weather prediction models struggle with placement and amounts of rainfall associated with COLs, both near the coast and on the interior plateau. Our study provides the single most comprehensive treatise that deals with COL characteristics affecting the South African domain.

Downstream development during ridging South Atlantic Ocean anticyclones

Ridging South Atlantic high pressure systems (ridging highs) are often accompanied by cut-off low (COL) pressure systems aloft, but may also occur without them, in which case a linear baroclinic wave would be observed propagating across the South African domain in the upper troposphere. Using 41 years of ERA-5 reanalysis data, this study documents differences between the characteristics of the prevailing dynamical processes and associated local eddy kinetic energy generation, its downstream transfer and dissipation during these two scenarios. The study shows that when COLs are present then baroclinic conversion is strong and it is confined east of the Greenwich Meridian, whereas it is located downstream of South Africa and it is much weaker, when ridging occurs without COLs. The differences in strength and locations of the baroclinic conversion are associated with the differing jet streak configurations between the two scenarios; which lead to Rossby wave breaking and the absence thereof when there are COLs and when ridging occurs without COLs, respectively. The presence of breaking during COLs leads to trans-ridge downstream development that facilitates energy transfer from the midlatitudes into the South African domain. When there are no COLs present, the trans-trough downstream development is stronger than it is across the upstream ridge. Barotropic conversion from eddy kinetic energy to mean kinetic energy occurs in the South African domain during COLs, but occurs much further downstream when there are no COLs during ridging highs. The difference in the characteristics identified in this study can be traced back to the differences in the potential vorticity anomaly structures, which are largely due to whether the waves break or do not during the evolution of ridging events in the South African domain.

Extreme Heavy Rainfall Events at Mid-Latitudes as the Outcome of a Slow Quasi-Resonant Ocean—Atmosphere Interaction: 10 Case Studies

Based on case studies, the development of low-pressure systems leading to extreme precipitation events reveals common characteristics. They highlight the co-evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the clustering of mesoscale convective systems in characteristic period ranges according to harmonic modes of the annual declination of the sun. This suggests a quasi-resonance of the heat exchanges of the ocean and the atmosphere during cyclogenesis. The formation of coherent extensive positive SST anomalies in characteristic period ranges, which reflects various interactions from baroclinic waves at mid-latitudes, i.e., Rossby waves especially present where the western boundary currents move away from the continents, may be a precursor of an extreme heavy rainfall event. Fed by warm and humid air coming from coherent SST anomalies, the convective cyclonic system strengthens concomitantly with the formation of cut-off lows, favoring blocks. However, the concentration in space and time of large-amplitude rainfall anomalies requires a relative stability of the atmospheric blocking circulation during the slow maturation processes. Intensification of extratropical cyclones is presumably the consequence of natural and anthropogenic warming, which strengthens the mechanisms leading to the clustering of mesoscale convective systems. The present study should help to refine the prediction of these extreme events while contributing to enrich our understanding of their presumed link with global warming.

Extreme Rainfall and Flood Risk Prediction over the East Coast of South Africa

Extreme rainfall associated with mid-tropospheric cut-off low (COL) pressure systems affected the entire east coast of South Africa during April 2022, leading to flooding and destruction of homes, electricity power lines, and road infrastructure, and leaving 448 people confirmed dead. Therefore, this study investigated the evolution of the two COLs and their impacts, including the occurrence of extreme rainfall and cold weather over the southeast coast of the country. We analysed observed and reanalysis meteorological data and mapped areas at risk to impacts of flood hazards on the east coast of South Africa. Extreme rainfall (&gt;500 mm) accumulated over 16 days was observed along the east coast, with the amount of rainfall progressively decreasing inland. We found that the rainfall associated with the first COL was significantly enhanced by the interactions between a strong low-level onshore airflow across the Agulhas Current and the coastal escarpment, resulting in deep convection and lifting. An unusual surface cyclone with tropical characteristics developed over the subtropical southwest Indian Ocean, driving onshore southeasterly winds which enhanced low-level convergence. Moreover, the flood risk results revealed that, amongst others, land cover/use (52.8%), elevation (16.8%) and lithology (15.5%) were the most important flood predictor variables in this study. Much of the study area was found to have very low (28.33%), low (31.82%), and moderate (21.66%) flood risk, whilst the high- and very-high-risk areas accounted for only 17.5% of the total land area. Nonetheless, the derived flood risk map achieved an acceptable level of accuracy of about 89.9% (Area Under Curve = 0.899). The findings of this study contribute to understanding extreme rainfall events and the vulnerability of settlements on South Africa’s east coast to flood risk, which can be used towards natural disaster risk reduction.

On the Middle East's severe dust storms in spring 2022: Triggers and impacts

Large amounts of dust in the air can disrupt daily activities and pose a threat to human health. In May 2022, consecutive major dust storms occurred over the Middle East resulting in severe environmental, social and health impacts. In this study, we investigate the exceptional factors driving these storms and the effects of the dust clouds. Using a combination of satellite, in-situ and reanalysis datasets, we identify the atmospheric triggers for the occurrence of these severe dust storms, characterize their three-dimensional structure and evaluate the dust radiative impact. The dust emission was promoted by density currents emanating from deep convection over Turkey. The convective systems were triggered by cut-off lows from mid-latitudes fed by moisture from African atmospheric rivers. Data from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) showed that the dust clouds were transported southward at 4 km in altitudes but sunk to ground levels when they reached the southern Arabian Peninsula due to strong subsidence. At a station in coastal UAE, the dust caused a 350 W m−2 drop in the surface downward shortwave flux and a 70 W m−2 increase in the longwave one during the dust episodes. This contributed to a 9 °C increase in nighttime temperatures which exacerbated the effects of the heat for the population. The newly highlighted mechanism for dust emission in the Middle East, in which a cut-off low interacts with an atmospheric river, as well as direct observations of the dust impact on the radiative budget can contribute to reducing associated uncertainties in climate models.

A component-based approximation for trend detection of intense rainfall in the Spanish Mediterranean coast

Rainfall behavior is a fundamental issue in areas with scarce and irregular amounts, such as the Spanish Mediterranean region. We identified 12 spatial patterns that characterized 899 torrential precipitation events (≥150 mm in 24 h) that occurred in the 3,537 rainy precipitation series in the period 1950–2020. Three of these components––eastern and ESE––showed positive and significant trends in their accumulated volumes. We then characterized the mean synoptic causes of the 10 most intense events in each component at both mean sea-level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height, and also the integrated water-vapor transport between 1,000 and 300 hPa. We found a clear spatial distribution of the pluviometric effects related to unstable atmospheric situations (such as troughs and cut-off lows), and also to SW–SE advection fluxes that brought moist air from the Western Mediterranean. In particular, torrential rainfall in the Balearic Islands related more to E–NE advections than to southeastern ones. We also determined that the major parts of these components occurred in early autumn, especially in September and October. We expect these findings to help our understanding of the processes leading to catastrophic situations along the Spanish Mediterranean coast and to lead to improvements in early alert systems and management plans.

Temporal variation of surface O3, NOx and PM10 and associated human health risk in Gabès suburban (South-Eastern Tunisia): multi-scales impact of sources and meteorology

The study of daily and hourly average concentrations variability of surface O3, NO, NO2 and PM10 was carried out at the proximity of a crossroad (≈23,000 vehicles per day) located in suburban Gabès, Tunisia. It was performed during 2017–2019 “winter/spring” seasonal transitions and spring seasons. Depending on multi-scale sources and meteorology, it showed variable values ​​within each studied annual period and the years. Statistical approaches based on factorial analysis of correspondences (FAC) and principal component analysis (PCA) revealed three main components of pollution; local retraced by NOx, regional by O3 and synoptic by PM10. Furthermore, they have refined the significant impacts of Saharan dust advections on high recorded PM10 and NOx (by drained urban plume) and of both deep depressions (cut-off lows) and Azores anticyclonic events on the excess of surface O3 concentrations. The investigation of the air quality health index (AQHI) related to the selected pollutants highlighted the significant effect of PM10. It has revealed that more than 53% of the total days were retraced by a moderate air quality index level linked to the negative impact of PM10. Besides, for such a pollutant, more than 20% of the total days were unhealthy for sensitive groups. Even for ordinary people, almost 3% of the total days were shown to be very unhealthy to hazardous.