Current Warning System Research Articles

CLIMAEXTREMO: A New Risk Indicator for the Health Risk to Building Occupants during Extreme Weather Events in Portugal

Portugal is the country in Europe where the death rate in winter and summer has the highest correlation with outdoor temperatures. The Portuguese National Institute of Public Health Ricardo Jorge has developed a national warning system for heat waves called ICARO, which has been in place since 1999 (and is the oldest in Europe). However, it presents some limitations, namely, the low spatial resolution (five regions in Portugal’s mainland), the low temporal forecasting period (one day), and the fact that it was only accessible to health authorities until very recently. This work describes the development of a new public dashboard that uses a new early warning index for extreme weather events, the CLIMAEXTREMO index, which extends the current warning system by improving the current forecasting models for risk by integrating new sources of public data and increasing the spatial and time resolution of the warnings to the municipality or the parish level. The new index is a combination of a new model to estimate the relative mortality increase (updating the model used in ICARO) together with a model of the indoor temperature of building archetypes for all municipalities and a vulnerability index that considers socio-demographic economic indicators. This work discusses the results of the new risk indicator for the heat waves that occurred in Portugal at the end of June and mid-August 2023, and it shows that the index was able to indicate a high risk for the municipalities that had an increase in the number of deaths during that period.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Contact-Analog and Bounding Box Prototypes in Augmented Reality Head-Up Display Warning for Chinese Novice Drivers Under Various Collision Types and Traffic Density

Augmented Reality Head-Up Display (AR-HUD) is a promising solution to the current warning system distraction problem. However, how to effectively convey warnings through AR graphics is still unclear. This study examines the effectiveness of the contact-analog graphic compared to the bounding box graphic in various collision types and traffic densities. Forty-eight participants watched AR-augmented driving videos and were instructed to respond to critical events. Reaction time, response rate, and subjective evaluations were compared for rear-end and pedestrian collisions in different traffic densities under different warnings. Both bounding box and contact-analog warnings improved driving performance compared to the non-warning group. The contact-analog warning performed better for rear-end collisions, while the bounding box warning had a lower reaction time for pedestrian collisions, regardless of traffic density.

Understanding Broadcast Meteorologists’ Current and Future Use of Severe Weather Watches, Warnings, and Probabilistic Hazard Information

Abstract Broadcast meteorologists are essential in the communication of National Weather Service (NWS) warnings to the public. Therefore, it is imperative to include them in a user-centered approach for the design and implementation of new warning products. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) will modernize the way meteorologists forecast and communicate NWS warning information to the general public using rapidly updating probabilistic hazard information (PHI). Storm-scale PHI consists of probabilistic forecasts for severe wind/hail, tornadoes, and lightning hazards. Hence, NWS warnings would have the capacity to be supplemented by a quantitative or qualitative likelihood of hazard occurrence. The researchers conducting this study wanted to know what broadcast meteorologists thought about the inclusion of this likelihood information and how it could impact their decision-making and communication process. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers first asked broadcast meteorologists about their current practices for severe weather coverage using NWS watches and warnings. Next, broadcast meteorologists were introduced to multiple iterations of PHI prototypes and queried for their input. Findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists already face a complex decision-making and communication process under today’s warning paradigm. In addition, respondents were split on whether to explicitly communicate probabilities with their viewers. Respondents’ choices were also somewhat inconclusive regarding nomenclature, definitions of PHI and representations of PHI with warning polygons. These results suggest that PHI should feature user-driven, customizable options to fulfill broadcast meteorologists’ needs and that the iterative nature of the research-and-development process of PHI should continue. Significance Statement Broadcast meteorologists are vital communicators of dangerous weather to the public, leading researchers to study them more closely. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers wanted to know how broadcast meteorologists talk about tornadoes, large hail, and high winds to their viewers under today’s system of National Weather Service warnings. Survey findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists face a complex decision-making process when communicating dangerous weather. Any effort to modernize the current warning system, such as including hazard probability, should consider this complex process. Modernization should complement the role of broadcast meteorologists to ultimately serve the public and user-driven options should be a key component of any probabilistic information that is included in a future National Weather Service warning system.

Leakage Current Detector and Warning System Integrated with Electric Meter

Electrical power is essential in human life. Thus, the security and reliability of its supply are of critical importance in a country’s industrial and economic development. The leakage and improper use of electricity may cause serious problems such as fire and electrocution. To prevent such incidents and minimize the loss of life and property, a leakage current detector and warning system are developed in this study. With a high-precision current transformer and high-gain linear converter, the detector effectively detects leakage current over 1 mA, which is validated in different methods. The detector can be integrated into widely used electric meters (Taipower Datong’s sub-meter model D4S) easily, and information on detected leakage current is transmitted to the cloud server through narrowband IoT wireless communication (NB-IoT) to warn users and management personnel of the electrical power line. The proposed detector and system are expected to prevent the fire caused by leakage current which was the main cause of the fire at homes and buildings and can be an effective means to manage the electrical powerline system and metering facilities.

Current flood warning system in Japan and its effectiveness in mobilizing evacuation: Lessons from case studies.

An effective flood warning system is crucial for successful flood management. Flood warning systems have been developed in many countries across the world. However, scientific literature on flood warning systems has been mainly focused on technical capacity building, and the effectiveness of warning systems in mobilizing evacuation was much understudied. Japan is a country with a long history of fighting against flood disasters; the evaluation of its practices in providing flood warnings and the effectiveness are certainly important for further flood research development in Japan, and sharing the experience and lessons with the rest of the world will contribute to flood damage reduction on a global scale. Following this line of thinking, this article is intended to present a clear and concise picture of the current flood warning system in Japan, which has been poorly documented up until now. It is also aimed at providing a performance assessment for the flood warning system through case study approach and the use of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) model. Through analyses, the pros and cons of the current flood warning system in Japan are highlighted, and the directions for further development and refinement are explained.

Are current warning and responses systems suitable to respond to emerging infectious diseases?

Abstract Socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, as well as several natural hazards, have repeatedly been shown to drive emerging infectious-disease risk. However, these drivers are largely excluded from surveillance, warning and response systems. This paper identifies, analyses and categorises 64 warning and response systems for infectious diseases. It finds that 80% of them are “reactive” – they wait for disease outbreaks before issuing an alert and implementing mitigating strategies. Only 6% of the warning and response systems were “prevention-centred.” These both monitored and were linked to strategies that addressed drivers of disease emergence and re-emergence. This paper argues that warning systems’ failure to conceptualise emerging infectious diseases as part of an integrated human, animal and environmental system stems from inadequate multi-sectoral collaboration and governance, compounded by barriers to data sharing and integration. This paper reviews existing approaches and frameworks that could help to build and expand prevention-centred warning and response systems. It also makes recommendations to foster multi-sectoral collaboration in governance and warning systems for infectious diseases. This includes proposing solutions to address compartmentalisation in international agreements, developing One Health national focal points and expanding bottom-up initiatives.

Are current warning and responses systems suitable to respond to emerging infectious diseases? – CORRIGENDUM

Are current warning and responses systems suitable to respond to emerging infectious diseases? – CORRIGENDUM

한국 수도권 지역 열대야 현상의 온도 기준과 사망 위험

The effects of extreme climate events associated with global warming on health have become a major public health concern. Previous studies on the mortality risk of high night-time temperatures, called “hot nights”, demonstrated that the current hot-night warning system in South Korea may not be sufficient because the warning system does not report the risks of night-time temperatures lower than 25°C (the current cut-off point for hot nights) and the threshold points were heterogeneous among subpopulations. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the mortality risk of hot nights using various cut-off points and subpopulation analysis to suggest effective health risk-based warning systems.BR We collected time-series data on daily mortality and minimum temperature for 66 districts (si-gun-gu) in the capital area (Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon) of South Korea during the summer period (Jun. ~ Sep.) from 2011 to 2017. Cut-off point temperatures were set from 20°C to 25°C, and the days with a daily minimum temperature above the cut-off point were defined as hot nights. Through two-stage time-series analysis with a distributed lag model, the association between hot nights and mortality was estimated for each district. We then calculated the pooled risk estimates using a meta-regression model.BR In the capital areas as a whole, positive mortality risk was detected around at 22°C, and the risk was highest at 25°C. In general, across all cut-off temperatures, Seoul showed higher risk compared to Gyeonggi and Incheon, and the cut-off value at which the risk was significant was the lowest (22°C). In addition, risk disparities between subpopulations (sex, age, education status, and marital status) were prominent at the highest cut-off point (25°C).BR In conclusion, this study provides evidence for health-risk-based hot night warning systems, which should be expanded to lower night-time temperatures and should account for regions and subpopulations.

Research progress of heatstroke warning system

With global warming and frequent heat waves, the incidence of heat-related-illness has gradually increased, and heatstroke is the most serious clinical syndrome, with high mortality and incidence of sequelae. Effective heatstroke warning aims to reduce the incidence and the harm of heatstroke by monitoring certain parameters and forecasting the possibility of suffering heat illness, however, there is no unified summary of the heatstroke early warning system at present. The occurrence of heatstroke involves two key aspects: climate environment and individual susceptibility, and individual susceptibility is manifested as the difference in heat tolerance ability. This article represents the current early warning system of heatstroke from climate environment, such as effective temperature, heat index, wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index, somatosensory temperature, etc., and individual susceptibility, for the reference of research and development in this field.

Checks and balances: a business‐oriented lens on disaster management and warnings

Small businesses are critical to community recovery from disasters. However, factors that affect outcomes (such as planning, information needs, and responses to warnings) are understudied. To address the research record's focus on policy that favours disaster mitigation rather than response, this project applied a two-phased, mixed-method approach. The first study comprised interviews with businesses to elucidate disaster planning approaches, knowledge and information needs, and current warning system adequacy. It revealed opportunities to build knowledge and add business-specific content to agency-issued warnings. The second study used an online survey to examine how disaster knowledge, planning, and experience are related to existing bushfire warnings and those modified with business-relevant content. The findings show that planning is associated with experience and knowledge but not with business-related protective action intentions. Modified messages were perceived as more effective and resulted in greater action intentions among those with bushfire experience. In sum, the paper highlights implications for small business-oriented disaster risk communication.

Disability inclusiveness of early warning system: a study on flood-prone areas of Bangladesh

PurposePersons with disabilities face the impacts of disasters differently. Early warning systems can be one of the powerful tools to reduce the vulnerabilities of persons with disabilities and mitigate the impacts of disasters. The main objective of this study was to assess the disability inclusiveness of the current early warning system (EWS) in flood-prone areas of Bangladesh.Design/methodology/approachA qualitative method was focused on getting in-depth information. Persons with disabilities participated in focus group discussions (FGDs) and shared the inclusiveness and gaps of the current EWS. Through extensive literature review, a checklist was developed to conduct the FGDs. QDA Miner 6.0.6 software was used for coding and analyzing the data.FindingsResults indicated that, though persons with disabilities have proper risk knowledge, the current monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication, and response capability are not fully inclusive. A significant gap in the EWS was found in response capability. Even if somehow persons with disabilities manage to receive a warning about a flood, they lack the capacity to respond to the warning.Research limitations/implicationsThe study proposed that to make an EWS inclusive and effective, the concerned authorities should focus on all four parts of the EWS.Originality/valueStudies related to disability and disaster management are not very common. Conducting a qualitative study provided the persons with disabilities the opportunity to share their perspectives. Future studies can focus on vulnerability and capacity assessment of persons with disabilities to identify areas requiring interventions to enhance resilience.

‘Where oh where is the data?‘: Identifying data sources for hydrometeorological impact forecasts and warnings in Aotearoa New Zealand

Early Warning Systems are a key component to building preparedness and response capacities to hydrometeorological hazards that continue to affect people worldwide. Notable historic events have revealed gaps in current hazard-based warning systems. Impact Forecasts and Warnings (IFWs) have been proposed to fill these communication gaps by re-centring the warning thresholds and language around the consequences, or impacts, of the hazard(s), rather than just the physical characteristics. However, research has shown that implementing IFWs requires not just hazard data, but also data on impacts, vulnerability, and exposure to understand the risk of impacts.Using Grounded Theory Methodology, we conducted a series of interviews with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure (HIVE) data to identify data sources and understand how these data are collected and created to support the implementation of IFWs. We focus the study on the New Zealand context to support the country's efforts towards implementing IFWs.Our findings indicate that many sources for HIVE data exist that are collected for other uses (such as for disaster/emergency response efforts, and for research) and have relevant applications for IFWs. Our findings further suggest that priorities, motivation, and interest within organisations influence how well data is collected. Moreover, agencies tend to prefer official data, but official data has limitations that unofficial data may address, such as timeliness. To that end, a tension exists between the timeliness and trustworthiness of data needed for emergency response and warnings.

Current situation of early warning and emergency countermeasures of volcanic eruptions in China

Abstract Volcanic eruptions, as major natural disasters, often cause considerable numbers of casualties and economic losses. Given the substantial potential hazards posed to society, volcanic eruptions have become a central concern for national public safety systems. This paper introduces the risk degrees and classification of activity of major active volcanoes in China, reviews early warning policies in the government response to volcanic eruptions, compares the early warning levels of China and the USA, and proposes an early warning theme adapted to the characteristics of volcanic activity in mainland China. The current volcanic warning system of China still has considerable room for improvement; therefore, improvements in monitoring volcanic activities and the antihazard capacity of volcanic eruption in the future are urgently needed.

Tornado warning awareness, information needs and the barriers to protective action of individuals who are blind

Individuals with disabilities are often vulnerable to the impacts of weather hazards, such as tornadoes. This is especially true in the Southeast where vulnerability to tornadoes is already heightened due to both physical and socioeconomic factors. To better understand and possibly reduce this vulnerability, we conducted interviews with 25 residents of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi who are legally blind. The goal of the interviews was to understand how people who are blind receive and respond to tornado warnings. Participants were asked to discuss the sources they use for severe weather information, their likes and dislikes about the current warning system, warning elements that allow them to personalize the risk, and barriers in their ability to obtain warning information, assess risk, or respond to it. Results suggest that good verbal description or the lack of detailed verbal description were of the greatest importance in our participants’ ability to effectively use warning information and act on it. This included audio for television warning crawls, and the level of description provided during severe weather coverage. Ample geographic description was important in their ability to personalize the threat. The greatest number of barriers were associated with the risk assessment phase; however, the single most common barrier mentioned by participants was that they would have no safe place to go during a tornado.

Predominant factors of disaster caused by tropical cyclones in South China coast and implications for early warning systems

Predicting disastrous wind and rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) is critical to prevent and mitigate the casualties and damage of TCs. The studied warning area was chosen with a radius of 800 km centered on Hong Kong in which the tracks of TCs making landfall in China are concentrated. In general, the number of TCs making landfall decreased but landfall locations and intensities of TCs increased since 1990. Our results suggested minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) in TC affected areas was the predominant disaster-warning factor and indicator for the resulting risks and damages of TCs in 1975–2017. The MSLP of 990 hPa monitored in a TC affected area was a threshold for severe impacts and prediction of strong wind and heavy rainfall. Early warning using a combination of MSLP and the nearest approach distance of TCs (MSLP of 990 hPa for distance of 100 km) outperformed the current warning system based on wind speed, often providing more timely warning and reducing the false warnings.

Linking field survey with crop modeling to forecast maize yield in smallholder farmers\u2019 fields in Tanzania

Short term food security issues require reliable crop forecasting data to identify the population at risk of food insecurity and quantify the anticipated food deficit. The assessment of the current early warning and crop forecasting system which was designed in mid 80’s identified a number of deficiencies that have serious impact on the timeliness and reliability of the data. We developed a new method to forecast maize yield across smallholder farmers’ fields in Tanzania (Morogoro, Kagera and Tanga districts) by integrating field-based survey with a process-based mechanistic crop simulation model. The method has shown to provide acceptable forecasts (r2 values of 0.94, 0.88 and 0.5 in Tanga, Morogoro and Kagera districts, respectively) 14–77 days prior to crop harvest across the three districts, in spite of wide range of maize growing conditions (final yields ranged from 0.2–5.9 t/ha). This study highlights the possibility of achieving accurate yield forecasts, and scaling up to regional levels for smallholder farming systems, where uncertainties in management conditions and field size are large.

Connecting flash flood events with radar-derived convective storm characteristics on the northwestern Mediterranean coast: knowing the present for better future scenarios adaptation

The northwestern Mediterranean coast is one of the areas most affected by flash floods and adverse weather, where also global climate scenarios are predicting an increase in precipitation extremes. This, along with the sea-level rise and the associated potential infrastructure and economical losses, represents a major risk for coastal settlements, as the one studied in this work: a major touristic area on the southern coast of Catalonia. The objective of the present paper is, thus, to understand in-depth the behavior of convective activity in the area and its link with flash flood events, to improve adverse and severe weather early warning systems in a rapidly changing weather as an adaptation measure. With this purpose, the study focuses on the period 2014–2018, analyzing the convective cells and storm motion in the region of study, through the new identification and tracking algorithm developed by the authors and applied in the Meteorological Service of Catalonia. The results show that the area is mostly affected by shallow but efficient convection, probably embedded in major weather systems with high precipitation rain rates, which tends to saturate the catchments and produce flooding. The work also shows the role of the topography as a triggering factor for storms outside the convective season, as a key feature for the convergence lines organization, and as a capping for stationary cells upstream. Improvements in the current warning system, such as different precipitation thresholds considering the time of exposure to that rain, as well as a further study are also presented as main results. These results can be extrapolated and applied to other regions affected by the same kind of heavy precipitation and flash floods.

PERFORMANCES OF THE RIP CURRENT WARNING SYSTEM AT THE HAEUNDAE COAST OF SOUTH KOREA

Haeundae is one of the most beautiful beaches in Korea, and is also notorious for frequent and strong rip currents. Every recent year in this beach, hundreds of swimmers rescued from rip currents have been reported. The large-scale Haeundae rip current is known to be a kind of transient rip currents which is hardly predicted. The successive ends of wave-crest pattern (i.e., honeycomb wave-crest pattern(Dalrymple et al., 2011)), which generate rip current, are mainly formed by two-directional wave trains due to the refraction of incident swells over submerged shoals and ridges of the Haeundae coast. Many people are caught by the rip current in the relatively calm sea and weather conditions. The incident waves generating rip currents are nearly monochromatic with the wave period of 7-13 seconds. These swells are supposed to be generated by distant typhoons formed in the Philippine Sea. Some of them might propagate with dispersion and dissipation during the travel toward the south coast of the Korean Peninsula, especially to the Haeundae coast. In order to protect the swimmers from the rip current accidents, Choi et al. (2014) proposed a method for a rip current warning system, and Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration (KHOA) has established and operated the rip current warning system to the Haeundae beach. The rip current warning system estimates the rip current risk level based on the real-time incident wave conditions measured near the beach and the database pre-calculated by a numerical model according to various wave and tide conditions and the topography of the Haeundae coast. The Boussinesq wave model, FUNWAVE (Wei et al., 1999; Choi et al., 2015) was utilized for resolving the ends of the wave crests. This study showed the performance of the forecast and warning system of the rip current at the Haeundae coast of South Korea.

An Integrated Flood Warning and Response Model for Effective Flood Disaster Mitigation Management

Recent flood event in Malaysia especially at the East Coast region of Peninsular Malaysia shows the importance of providing a comprehensive and effective disaster mitigation management which encompasses the involvement of government agencies, private organization and NGOs. The early warning and response model is an important element in the mitigation management where it will reduce the devastating impact to those who are directly or indirectly affected by the flood. An effective warning and response system will ensure all stakeholders get the right information and provide necessary action and response to the information to avoid bigger calamity due to inaction or lack of action. The purpose of this research is to establish an effective flood warning and response model which support the flood mitigation and management system. In order to establish this model, data collection will be done by getting input from those who are affected by the flood disaster focusing on the headwaters area of Pahang River basin to understand the issues they faced specifically on the effectiveness of current flood warning and response system (if there is any). Input from various agencies that are involved in flood warning and response and flood mitigation management will also be sought. The analysis from these data will be done and compared with the current best practices. The outcomes from the analysis will be used as the basis to form a new flood warning and response model. The proposed model can be used to complement the current available flood warning system which effectively assist the flood effected population as well as the flood mitigation management team.

Early Warning System in Mobile-Based Impacted Areas

Indonesia is a country prone to earthquake for Indonesia is located between three tectonic plates. Some natural disasters of earthquake caused have a big number of victims. This is due to the ineffectiveness of current early warning system since it still uses conventional way. This study is aimed to create a system that can deliver direct information about earthquake to the people of easy-using mediaand provide direction to the nearest evacuation site to them. Method of system design applies prototype development method. The applied system uses Google Maps API as a tool to trace the user’s location and the evacuation site. In addition, the system will use firebase as a tool of notification delivery.