Predominant factors of disaster caused by tropical cyclones in South China coast and implications for early warning systems

Abstract

Predicting disastrous wind and rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) is critical to prevent and mitigate the casualties and damage of TCs. The studied warning area was chosen with a radius of 800 km centered on Hong Kong in which the tracks of TCs making landfall in China are concentrated. In general, the number of TCs making landfall decreased but landfall locations and intensities of TCs increased since 1990. Our results suggested minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) in TC affected areas was the predominant disaster-warning factor and indicator for the resulting risks and damages of TCs in 1975–2017. The MSLP of 990 hPa monitored in a TC affected area was a threshold for severe impacts and prediction of strong wind and heavy rainfall. Early warning using a combination of MSLP and the nearest approach distance of TCs (MSLP of 990 hPa for distance of 100 km) outperformed the current warning system based on wind speed, often providing more timely warning and reducing the false warnings.