Current Rate Of Deforestation Research Articles

Diversity and Abundance of Edible Wild Fruit and Leaf Plants in Parts of Forest and Savanna Eco-regions, Nigeria.

Wild foods are important sources of nutrition for one out of six people worldwide and it remains an open access source of food and income, especially to vulnerable group such as the resource-poor and malnourished children. Different ecological zones in Nigeria are endowed with diverse edible fruits and leaves and hence their diversity and abundance differ. With the previous and current rate of deforestation particularly in the African continent and specifically in Nigeria, the diversity and abundance of these invaluable forests –derived foods across the forest and savanna ecozones in Nigeria are unknown. An inventory of forest-derived edible fruits and leaves was conducted using a systematic line transect in two (2) selected forest reserves in each ecological zone. Five line transects of 515 m in length, with a distance of at least 150 m between two parallel transects was used. Five sample plots of 25 m x25 m in size were laid in alternate position along each transect at 100 m interval. A total of 25 sample plots were laid in each of the selected forest reserves. In each sample plot, all edible fruits and leaves encountered were identified and their frequency recorded. The frequency of the species per ha was used to compute the relative species abundance and Shannon weiner diversity index. The species diversity across the ecological zones was compared using one-way analysis of variance. Shannon-weiner diversity index (3.49) for the rainforest edible wild fruits and leaves is significantly higher (P≤ 0.05) than in all the other ecological zones. This is followed by Guinea savanna (3.10), Derived savanna (3.02), Sudan savanna (2.91), and Sahel savanna (2.83) while the mangrove forest has the lowest diversity index (2.53). Assessing species diversity helps in understanding the resilience of forest ecosystems. This knowledge is crucial for fostering environments that can withstand and recover from adverse events. Policy makers rely on scientific studies to design regulations and conservation strategies. This research provided evidence-based insight necessary for informed decision-making to protect forest reserves

Investigating biodiversity trends in different mitigation scenarios with a national integrated assessment model

ABSTRACT The inclusion of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in climate mitigation pathways is critical and can be reached by assessing their consequences through the deployment of appropriate indicators to that end. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools for understanding possible impacts caused by adopting new policies. We investigate terrestrial biodiversity trends (life on land: SDG 15) for three different climate mitigation scenarios for Brazil: (1) A scenario compatible with a world that maintains its current policies with current deforestation rates in the Amazon and the Cerrado biomes; (2) A scenario in which Brazil fulfils its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC); and (3) A scenario compatible with a world that limits warming to 1.5°C. We use the Brazilian Land-Use and Energy System model (BLUES), a national IAM, to show the implications of the transitions involved in the above-mentioned scenarios for the country up to 2050. We conduct a post-processing analysis using consolidated biodiversity indicators to emphasize how different IAM greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation solutions present distinct positive and negative potential impacts on biodiversity in Brazil. However, our analysis does not consider the impacts associated with climate change, but only the risks imposed by mitigation policies. Our results indicate that biodiversity loss decreases in the scenarios from (1) to (3), implying that stronger climate change mitigation actions could result in smaller biodiversity losses. We conclude that Brazil has the opportunity to align its biodiversity and climate goals through nature-based solutions (NBS), such as forest conservation, restoration, pasture recovery, and the use of crop-pasture and agroforestry systems.

A Worrying Future for River Flows in the Brazilian Cerrado Provoked by Land Use and Climate Changes

In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on the river flows of 81 watersheds within the Cerrado biome, Brazil, based on a comprehensive analysis of field and secondary data acquired between 1985 and 2018. Complementarily, we projected a future deforestation and climate scenario up to 2050 and predicted their impacts on surface water in the study area. We observed that direct impacts by large-scale deforestation oriented to the production of irrigated agricultural commodities have more significantly impacted river flows than climate changes. We estimated an average decrease of 8.7% and 6.7% in the streamflow due to deforestation and climate changes, respectively. Most of the observed changes (56.7%) were due to land use and land cover changes and occurred in recent decades. Climate and land use and land cover changes combined were responsible for a total surface water reduction of −19,718 m³/s within the Cerrado watersheds. By assuming the current deforestation rates, we predicted a total water reduction of 23,653 m³/s by 2050, equivalent to a decrease of 33.9% of the river flows in the study region. It will cause severe streamflow discontinuity in many rivers and strongly affect agricultural, electric power production, biodiversity, and water supply, especially during dry seasons in that region.

Assessing the Effects of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Groundwater Recharge in a Sudano-Sahelian Zone: Case of Koda Catchment, Mali, West Africa

Groundwater is the main source of water in the studied area; therefore, it is significantly requested in all the activities of the inhabitants. These natural resources are affected by some drivers especially Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) and Climate Change. A Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics study is crucial for any global environmental change evaluation. For instance, for a given place, its change could affect considerably water cycle components. Therefore, the knowledge of the effects of LULC on groundwater recharge is then the key in water resources management system, in particular for the decision makers of the Koda Catchment where the scarcity of the water availability for agriculture is real. The spatiotemporal variation of the different units of LULC present in the catchment has been examined in this study. The Envi 4.5 Software coupled with ArcGIS using the Supervised Classification method, was applied to subset Landsat images from 1990 to 2016. Five (5) major LULC categories, cultivated land, bare land, herbaceous savannah, shrubby savannah and degraded savannah, were identified in the catchment. In a parallel direction, the groundwater recharge has been estimated through the conceptual Gardenia model for the same period 1990-2016. The results showed that the portion of cultivated land and bare land increased (14.9% and 23.5% respectively) while, the portion of savannah decreased: herbaceous savannah by 24.4%, degraded savannah by 10.32% and Shrubby Savannah by 3.6%. Savannah areas in Koda catchment is converted to agricultural land and urban area due to human activities. The decline of 8.4% in groundwater recharge might become so far obvious in the future if the current rate of deforestation continues in the Koda catchment. There is a need to closely monitor the changes in LULC for sustainable development. The results of this study could help to well understand the recharge pattern across Koda catchment under a changing LULC.

Relationship between Biomass Burning Emissions and Deforestation in Amazonia over the Last Two Decades

With deforestation and associated fires ongoing at high rates, and amidst urgent need to preserve Amazonia, improving the understanding of biomass burning emissions drivers is essential. The use of orbital remote sensing data enables the estimate of both biomass burning emissions and deforestation. In this study, we have estimated emissions of particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) associated with biomass burning, a primary human health risk, using the Brazilian Biomass Burning emission model with Fire Radiative Power (3BEM_FRP), and estimated deforestation based on the MapBiomas dataset. Using these estimates, we have assessed for the first time how deforestation drove biomass burning emissions in Amazonia over the last two decades at three scales of analysis: Amazonia-wide, country/state and pixel. Amazonia accounted for 48% of PM2.5 emitted from biomass burning in South America and current deforestation rates have reached values on par with those of the early 21st Century. Emissions and deforestation were concentrated in the Eastern and Central-Southern portions of Amazonia. Amazonia-wide deforestation and emissions were linked through time (R = 0.65). Countries/states with the widest spread agriculture were less likely to be correlated at this scale, likely because of the importance of biomass burning in agricultural practices. Concentrated in regions of ongoing deforestation, in 18% of Amazonia grid cells PM2.5 emissions associated with biomass burning and deforestation were significantly positively correlated. Deforestation is an important driver of emissions in Amazonia but does not explain biomass burning alone. Therefore, future work must link climate and other non-deforestation drivers to completely understand biomass burning emissions in Amazonia. The advance of anthropogenic activities over forested areas, which ultimately leads to more fires and deforestation, is expected to continue, worsening a crisis of dangerous emissions.

Analysing the dynamics of land use in the context of current conservation policies and land tenure in the Cerrado – MATOPIBA region (Brazil)

The side effect of the expansion of agricultural activities in the Brazilian Cerrado resulted in a loss of its native vegetation, biodiversity decline, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Recent expansion has mainly occurred in the northern Cerrado, a region known as MATOPIBA, which is the latest agricultural frontier in Brazil and is largely cultivated for agricultural commodities. In this paper, we investigate the spatiotemporal behaviour of Cerrado vegetation and agricultural areas in the Cerrado – MATOPIBA (CM) region between 1990 and 2017. Moreover, we analyse the planted area expansion of soybean and other important crops for the region and their productivity, and examine how pasturelands have changed over time. We also present a map of private rural lands and analyse whether they comply with the national Forest Code (FC) regarding in-farm areas of natural vegetation that ought to be preserved by law. Finally, we estimate how much of the current deforestation rates could be avoided in the CM region if the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) or the FC are implemented. Results show a loss of almost 8.4 Mha of the Cerrado vegetation in the study area and an expansion of 4.3 Mha of agricultural lands between 1990 and 2017. Our analysis indicates that soybean planted areas expanded by 326% between 2000 and 2017 and that soybean average productivity increased from 2483 kg/ha in 2000 to 2906 kg/ha in 2017. In addition to soybean, other crops also contributed to the agribusiness economy in the CM region, with corn being the crop with the greatest expansion of planted areas over the same period (643,443 ha), and cotton the cultivation with the highest increase in productivity (from 2300 kg/ha to 3822 kg/ha) in these 17 analysed years. Pasturelands expanded from 6.4 Mha in 2000 to 9.8 Mha in 2017. In 2018, private rural properties consisted of only 7188 large properties and occupied 19.5 Mha, whereas small and medium properties accounted for 136,586 farms and covered a total of only 17.5 Mha. With respect to the national FC, the deficit of preservation areas in the CM region, in relation to the agricultural area of each municipality, totalled almost 1.4 Mha in 2017, with large properties responsible for 57% of this deficit. Looking at the policies and mechanisms to protect the native vegetation of the CM region, we have that 17,219,250 ha can still be legally deforested on the rural properties in this region; and, if the SoyM was expanded to the Cerrado – MATOPIBA region, almost 900,000 ha covered by native vegetation on the categories of farms selected would have been prevented to be converted to soybeans since 2010. The findings from this paper provide a comprehensive understanding of the land use and land cover changes and of the Cerrado deforestation patterns in the CM region for the last decades, and gather information on conservation policies in place to suggest improvements. Several datasets were combined, mainly focus on quantitative analysis, to investigate the geospatial dynamics of natural and agribusiness areas in the study region, and suggest the need to reinforce the preservation of Cerrado native vegetation areas, particularly those that are liable to be legally deforested.

Assessment of Fuel Wood Energy Demand of Arba Minch Town, Gamo Gofa Zone, Southern Ethiopia

The current rate of deforestation in Ethiopia is exacerbated by number of factors including increased rate of population, increased fuel wood consumption, urbanization, infrastructure development, etc. However, fuel wood energy requirement is one of the major problems causing deforestation. The current study was conducted during 2017 with the objective to estimate the fuel wood consumption of Arba Minch Town. To achieve this objective a household survey was conducted in the town. Out of 11 kebeles of the town four were selected purposely. 58 household respondents were selected for the study. People of the area using fuel wood for various purposes such as cooking, for lighting and for selling as source of income. Arba Minch forest is the source of fuel wood for majority of the households. On average basis, single house hold is using 4.01 kg of fuel wood day-1. The fuel wood consumption of other user such as hotels, govt. institutions were also recorded by conducting survey in four sub cities. Among different user group of fuel wood in the town fuel wood consumption by individual HHs were maximum (66 t day-1 or 24090 t year-1) followed by hotels (2.65 t day-1 or 969.08 t year-1) and lowest by government institutes (110 t day-1 or 40.15 t year-1). Thus, total consumption of fuel wood in Arba Minch town is 68.78 t day-1 or 25,099.23 t year-1. The demand for fuel wood consumption is in increasing trend. This growing demand of fuel wood from household is posing a threat to the remaining natural forest and associated wildlife and resources. Therefore, it is recommended that there is a need of adoption of alternative sources of energy which can replace fuel wood energy. Thus community participation in forest protection should be encouraged and illegal consumption of fuel wood in the study area should be checked.

A niche‐based gap analysis for the conservation of odonate species in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract Despite the current rates of deforestation and the expected climatic changes, protecting species in their natural habitats is still the simplest, cheapest, and most effective way of safeguarding biodiversity. Here, the network of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon was evaluated to assess its effectiveness in safeguarding species of Odonata. Ecological niche models were built to assess the suitability of the habitat for 503 Amazonian odonate species. Then, the effectiveness for the protection of odonate species of three classes of protected areas (strictly protected area, sustainable use area, and indigenous territory) was evaluated. Approximately 30% of the species are protected within the network of protected areas. These findings highlight the importance of protected areas for safeguarding most odonate species in the Amazon. For under‐represented or gap species, additional resources are still needed for effective management and protection on some private properties, which need to set aside land for conservation. In this way, it is possible to preserve habitats for odonate species and guarantee their conservation in the Amazon.

Management intensity and landscape configuration affect the potential for woody plant regeneration in coffee agroforestry

With the current deforestation rates in tropical ecosystems, optimizing biodiversity in managed systems has become fundamental for conservation. Agroforestry has been suggested to conserve biodiversity and buffer deforestation rates, while also sustaining local livelihoods. While many studies have focused on the relation between local management intensity and biodiversity, processes at the landscape scale are often overlooked and remain a knowledge gap.In this study we identified drivers behind woody plant regeneration in coffee agroforestry on both local and landscape scale. We used univariate-, multivariate- and structural equation models to relate seedling species richness, diversity, density, community composition and height to local management intensity and location in the landscape of 60 coffee agroforestry sites in southwestern Ethiopia.Local management intensity, which simplifies and reduces canopy cover, negatively impacted species richness, diversity and density, presumably due to altered microclimatic conditions and a reduction in local seed sources. Seedling height was also reduced by management intensity, including slashing frequency and canopy cover. On the landscape scale, species richness and diversity of seedlings was higher at sites adjacent to continuous forests where seed sources are abundant, and declined with distance to the forest. In particular, late successional species were negatively affected, whereas common shade tree species and pioneers occurred as seedlings throughout the landscape and in more managed systems. This suggests that dispersal limitation is detrimental for the regeneration of late successional species, especially in agroforestry systems where the standing woody plant diversity is largely reduced.Our results indicate that natural regeneration of woody plants still occurs in coffee agroforestry systems, primarily when the canopy structure is dense and diverse and/or when sites are located nearby continuous forests. Management intensification and deforestation will limit the potential for many woody plant species to regenerate in coffee agroforestry sites, by altering the local microclimate, reducing local seed sources and disrupting seed dispersal from the surrounding landscape. This will likely result in a positive feedback loop, as a reduction in woody plant regeneration reduces future seed sources. We therefore stress that both a local and a landscape perspective should be incorporated in conservation and restoration approaches.

Interannual Variability of Carbon Uptake of Secondary Forests in the Brazilian Amazon (2004‐2014)

AbstractTropical secondary forests (SF) play an important role in the global carbon cycle as a major terrestrial carbon sink. Here, we use high‐resolution TerraClass data set for tracking land use activities in the Brazilian Amazon from 2004–2014 to detect spatial patterns and carbon sequestration dynamics of secondary forests (SF). By integrating satellite lidar and radar observations, we found the SF area in the Brazilian Amazon increased from approximately 22 Mha (106 ha) in 2004 to 28 Mha in 2014. However, the expansion in area was also accompanied by a dynamic land use activity that resulted in about 50% recycling of SF area annually from frequent clearing and abandonment. Consequently, the average age of SF remained less than 10 years (age ~8.2 with one standard deviation of 3.2 spatially) over the period of the study. Estimation of changes of carbon stocks shows that SF accumulates approximately 8.5 Mg ha−1 year−1 aboveground biomass during the first 10 years after clearing and abandonment, 4.5 Mg ha−1 year−1 for the next 10 years followed by a more gradual increase of 3 Mg ha−1 year−1 from 20 to 30 years with much slower rate thereafter. The effective carbon uptake of SF in Brazilian Amazon was negligible (0.06 ± 0.03 PgC year−1) during this period, but the interannual variability was significantly larger (±0.2 PgC year−1). If the SF areas were left to grow without further clearing for 100 years, it would absorb about 0.14 PgC year−1 from the atmosphere, partially compensating the emissions from current rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

An Intergenerational Ecological Jurisprudence: The Supreme Court of Colombia and the Rights of the Amazon Rainforest

In 2017, 25 young Colombians, aged 15 to 25, filed the first climate change and future generations lawsuit in Latin America (the Amazon case). Assisted by the organisation Dejusticia, the young plaintiffs filed an accion de tutela—a special mechanism under the Colombian Constitution that allows individuals to demand the protection of their fundamental rights. The plaintiffs argued that the current deforestation rates and their destructive consequences were violating their future right to a healthy environment. Remarkably, the Supreme Court of Colombia, in which the action was filed, ruled in favour of the plaintiffs, granting their petition and guaranteeing their right to enjoy a healthy environment, as well as their future rights to life, health, food and water. To enforce its judgment, the Court ordered that the Colombian Government formulate an action plan and an intergenerational pact to protect the Amazon. Most importantly, the court went beyond the grounds raised by the plaintiffs and recognised the Amazon rainforest as a subject of rights. Located within a growing network of constitutional, legislative and judicial initiatives in a growing number of jurisdictions, the Amazon case is but one example of the emergence of a novel ecological jurisprudence that is emerging around the globe. The Amazon case is particularly emblematic, as it reveals a profound ontological shift among younger generations, for whom a purely anthropocentric worldview appears to be increasingly representative of an untenable sense of alienation. The Amazon case also creates hope for a world in which an ecological jurisprudence is at the core of the current intergenerational discourse, the focus of which appears to be the global reconceptualisation of our collective self for generations to come.

Prioritizing mangrove conservation across Mexico to facilitate 2020 NDC ambition.

There is a scale mismatch between mangrove conservation and carbon emission mitigation policies despite mangroves contributing disproportionally to global carbon sequestration. Using Mexico as a case study in the integration of these scales, we estimate mangrove carbon value and deforestation rates at the municipio (local government) scale and develop a prioritization model that indicates where to focus conservation efforts. By using previously published global models of carbon stocks, Mexico-specific carbon sequestration data, and calculating gross deforestation, we found that the current rate of deforestation will result in a social cost of 392.0 (± 7.4) million US$ over the next 25years. The prioritization model identified 26 municipios of 175, where if all mangroves are conserved, 50% of this cost could be avoided. Bridging the gap between research and governmental action using local initiatives will be paramount for the effective management of mangrove carbon.

The State of British Columbia’s Forests: A Global Comparison

The Forest Resources Assessment 2015 is a comprehensive dataset from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which provides the opportunity to explore some of the emerging topics related to sustainable forest management. This paper assesses how forests in British Columbia, Canada, compare globally on several key sustainable forest management parameters in four domains—biophysical indicators and legal framework, management plans, data management, and stakeholder involvement. The comparison was done against eight jurisdictions, namely Australia, China, Japan, the European Union, New Zealand, the Russian Federation and the USA. To accomplish our objectives, country-specific data on sustainable forest management parameters were extracted from the 2015 FAO’s Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA). Data specific to B.C. were sourced from Canada’s National Forest Inventory, and National Forest Database. Our results showed that British Columbia (B.C.) has one of the highest proportions of land covered with forests (57%) among all jurisdictions. The total forest area in B.C. has remained stable at around 55 million ha. The current rate of deforestation (6200 ha per year) is among the lowest in all jurisdictions. Data on the extent of primary forests in B.C. is unavailable. However, 22.6 million ha (41% of B.C.′s forests) have been classified as old growth forests (using a definition unique to B.C.). B.C. is the leading provincial forest producer by volume, and produced 67.97 million m3 of roundwood in 2015. With approximately 11 billion m3 of standing timber, roundwood production volume has held steady since 1990. In British Columbia, the National Forest Inventory—British Columbia Program (NFI-B.C.) is used to track and monitor the current status of the forests. It involves both ground plots and remote sensing. The most recent B.C. State of the Forests is one of the most comprehensive reports among all jurisdictions, using 24 topic areas, with each topic comprising several indicators of sustainable forest management. We conclude that British Columbia ranks high among other jurisdictions on several key sustainable forest management parameters with legislation and forest management regimes aiming to meet the environmental, social and economic needs of current and future generations.

The State of British Columbia’s Forests: A Global Comparison

The Forest Resources Assessment 2015 is a comprehensive dataset from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which provides the opportunity to explore some of the emerging topics related to sustainable forest management. This paper assesses how forests in British Columbia, Canada, compare globally on several key sustainable forest management parameters in four domains—biophysical indicators and legal framework, management plans, data management, and stakeholder involvement. The comparison was done against eight jurisdictions, namely Australia, China, Japan, the European Union, New Zealand, the Russian Federation and the USA. To accomplish our objectives, country-specific data on sustainable forest management parameters were extracted from the 2015 FAO’s Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA). Data specific to B.C. were sourced from Canada’s National Forest Inventory, and National Forest Database. Our results showed that British Columbia (B.C.) has one of the highest proportions of land covered with forests (57%) among all jurisdictions. The total forest area in B.C. has remained stable at around 55 million ha. The current rate of deforestation (6200 ha per year) is among the lowest in all jurisdictions. Data on the extent of primary forests in B.C. is unavailable. However, 22.6 million ha (41% of B.C.′s forests) have been classified as old growth forests (using a definition unique to B.C.). B.C. is the leading provincial forest producer by volume, and produced 67.97 million m3 of roundwood in 2015. With approximately 11 billion m3 of standing timber, roundwood production volume has held steady since 1990. In British Columbia, the National Forest Inventory—British Columbia Program (NFI-B.C.) is used to track and monitor the current status of the forests. It involves both ground plots and remote sensing. The most recent B.C. State of the Forests is one of the most comprehensive reports among all jurisdictions, using 24 topic areas, with each topic comprising several indicators of sustainable forest management. We conclude that British Columbia ranks high among other jurisdictions on several key sustainable forest management parameters with legislation and forest management regimes aiming to meet the environmental, social and economic needs of current and future generations.

Effect of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Groundwater Recharge in Osun Drainage Basin, Nigeria

Osun drainage basin is one of the regions in Nigeria experiencing increasing population growth and rapid urbanization; and about 70% of the inhabitantsrely on shallow groundwater resources of the region. Change in land use/land cover is one of the significant factors controlling regional hydrology and groundwater resources, thus the continuous change in land use and land cover of the drainage basin will significantly affect the basin’s groundwater resources. There are 7 classified land use/land cover in the study area which are bare surfaces, built up area, crops/shrubs, forest, rock outcrops, water bodies and wetland. Applying WetSpass-M hydrological model, we predicted the effect of land use/land cover change on the groundwater recharge in Osun drainage basin, Nigeria between 1984-2015. The results revealed that the highest groundwater recharge of 48.56%, 33.64% and 37.29% occurred in forested area in 1984, 2000 and 2015, respectively. This result might be due to the influence of vegetation in slowing down the speed of running water across the forest area, that allows more infiltration and deep percolation into the water table to recharge the groundwater system. On the other hand, the least groundwater recharge of the total annual was on the rock outcrops, which are about 4% in 1984, 3% in 2000 and 2% in 2015. The least recharge found on rock outcrops is expected and may be attributed to the fact that infiltration can only occur around or on decomposed rock outcrop, which may result in minute recharge to the groundwater system. The mean annual groundwater recharge of the basin for the land use/land cover of 1984, 2000 and 2015 are476.54, 411.07 and 430.06 mm/y, respectively. Overall, for the 32 years period of investigation, change in land use/land cover accounts for only 10% reduction in mean groundwater recharge occurrence between 1984 and 2015. Also, there is a change in recharge pattern in the study area during this period because most often, change in land use/land cover is a transition from one land use/land cover class to another, and the recharge pattern is influenced based on the degree of transition that took place and the characteristics of the dominant land use/land cover at a particular area of the basin. Although, the 10% reduction in mean annual recharge appears minute, this might become pronounced if the current rate of deforestation in the drainage basin continues unabated. Therefore, proper land use allocation, regulated land development and afforestation in terms of planting of native trees that were lost through anthropogenic activities in the basin should be policy option for groundwater sustainability.

Benefits of forest conservation on riverine sediment and hydropower in the Tonle Sap Basin, Cambodia

Recent deforestation rates in Cambodia are among the world’s largest, while hydropower development has accelerated in the Mekong region. Deforestation accelerates erosion, increasing river sediments heading to reservoirs and decreasing hydropower production. Forest protection could be seen as a service to hydropower, which the FOR-POWER model quantifies. Using recent deforestation estimates, annual sediment accumulation is calculated, followed by associated power generation loss, and annualized and present monetary value associated with benefits of forest conservation to hydropower. We evaluated four proposed medium-size hydropower dams (20–24 MW; 6–145 m3/s design discharge), and found that extensive deforestation could result in annual sediment accumulation of 360–930 million tons (reservoir dependent), but only 140–750 million tons in a forest conservation scenario. Overall, these reservoirs could lose 60–100% of storage capacity over 120 years at current deforestation rates, resulting in power loss net present values for Pursat-I, Battambang I and II dams of US $2.58, $44.8 and $28.8 million, respectively. A global sensitivity analysis showed that FOR-POWER was particularly sensitive to discount rates and electricity prices. The modeling tool developed for this study is transferable to other dams globally where hydropower development is accelerating and in need for better quantifying ecosystem services from surrounding watersheds.

Landscape predictors of rodent dynamics in fragmented rainforests

Land-use change threatens a large number of tropical species (so-called ‘loser’ species), but a small subset of disturbance-adapted species may proliferate in human-modified landscapes (‘winner’ species). Identifying such loser and winner species is critically needed to improve conservation plans, but this task requires longitudinal studies that are extremely rare. We assessed this topic with small rodent assemblages in the Lacandona rainforest, a relatively new and highly dynamic agricultural frontier from southeastern Mexico. In particular, we measured the abundance of four rodent species in 12 forest sites during a 6 year period. We related changes in abundance to differences across time in landscape structure (i.e., percentage of forest cover, matrix contrast, number of forest patches, and forest edge density) surrounding each site. Total rodent abundance was almost two times higher in 2016 than in 2011, although abundances were generally low in all years. The abundance of Heteromys desmarestianus increased through time, mainly in forest sites with increasing matrix contrast. Oryzomys sp. also tended to increase in abundance, especially in sites with decreasing edge density. Sigmodon toltecus remained stable through time, but Peromyscus mexicanus tended to decrease in abundance, particularly in sites with decreasing edge density and increasing matrix contrast across time. Therefore, spatial variations in landscape structure lead to species-specific responses. If current deforestation rates persist, we predict a population decline of forest-specialist species (P. mexicanus), and an increase in generalist species (S. toltecus and Oryzomys sp.). Improving matrix quality is crucial for preventing the extinction of forest-specialist rodent species.

Mapping and predicting forest loss in a Sumatran tiger landscape from 2002 to 2050

Riau Province in central Sumatra, with its peatland, lowland, and montane forest habitats, was once a stronghold for Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) populations. Today, Riau may have one of the highest deforestation rates in the world and wildlife populations are dwindling, with natural forest now comprising approximately only 18% of the province, mostly contained within protected areas. Agriculture (acacia, rubber, and oil palm) makes up the majority of Riau's land cover and deforestation for the creation of new plantations is rampant. Natural forest and tigers still remain in Bukit Tigapuluh National Park and Rimbang Baling Wildlife Reserve, which remain connected to tiger populations in montane forest on the western edge of Sumatra. In this study, using freely available Landsat imagery and a maximum likelihood classification algorithm, we create land cover maps for central Sumatra from 2002 to 2016. We then use current land cover, elevation, and slope variables to predict changes from forest to plantation from 2016 to 2050 at five year intervals using a multilayer perceptron neural network. Finally, we compare connectivity based on a 100 km distance threshold (based on potential tiger dispersal) across the landscape and across years. Land cover maps had 80–90% accuracy, and we predict forest in Tesso Nilo and the western edge of the study area to be lost by 2050 given current rates of deforestation. Our connectivity analysis shows that Tesso Nilo and the area between Rimbang Baling and Bukit Tigapuluh are important components for maintaining connectivity throughout the study area. Focusing conservation and rehabilitation efforts on forests close to plantations in flat areas, including Tesso Nilo, is necessary to maintain forests and increase connectivity in Riau to ensure future habitat connectivity for survival of tigers and Sumatra's other diverse endemic species.

Coronaviruses in guano from Pteropus medius bats in Peradeniya, Sri Lanka.

SummaryBats are a unique group of mammals well suited to be hosts for emerging viruses. With current rates of deforestation and urbanization, redistribution of bat habitats to urban and suburban areas may bring bats into closer contact with livestock and humans. Common flying fox, Pteropus medius (previously known as Pteropus giganteus), forms large communal roosts on treetops, often in close proximity to human habitation in Sri Lanka. This report describes the detection of coronavirus RNA in P. medius bat guano collected in Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. These viruses had >97% nucleotide identity with coronaviruses detected in Cynopterus sphinx, Scotophilus heathii and S. kuhlii bats in Thailand. Pteropus medius is widespread in Asia and appears to excrete group D coronaviruses, which are hitherto confined to bats; however, these findings may have public health implications in the future.

Variegated tropical landscapes conserve diverse dung beetle communities.

BackgroundConserving biodiversity in tropical landscapes is a major challenge to scientists and conservationists. Current rates of deforestation, fragmentation, and land use intensification are producing variegated landscapes with undetermined values for the conservation of biological communities and ecosystem functioning. Here, we investigate the importance of tropical variegated landscapes to biodiversity conservation, using dung beetle as focal taxa.MethodsThe study was carried out in 12 variegated landscapes where dung beetles were sampled using six pitfall traps, 30 m apart from each other, along a transect in each studied landscape use and cover classes—LUCC (forest fragment and corridor, coffee plantation, and pasture). We baited each pitfall trap with 30 g of human feces and left open for a 48 h period. We also measured three environmental variables reflecting structural differences among the studied classes: canopy cover, local vegetation heterogeneity and soil sand content.ResultsWe collected 52 species and 2,695 individuals of dung beetles. We observed significant differences in the mean species richness, abundance and biomass among classes, with forest fragments presenting the highest values, forest corridors and coffee plantations presenting intermediate values, and pastures the lowest values. Regarding community structure, we also found significant differences among classes. Canopy cover was the only variable explaining variation in dung beetle species richness, abundance, biomass, and community structure. The relative importance of spatial turnover was greater than nestedness-resultant component in all studied landscapes.DiscussionThis study evaluated the ecological patterns of dung beetle communities in variegated tropical landscapes highlighting the importance of these landscapes for conservation of tropical biodiversity. However, we encourage variegation for the management of landscapes that have already been fragmented or as a complementary initiative of current conservation practices (e.g., protection of natural habitats and establishment of reserves).