Current Policy Research Articles

Policy and Regulations for Mobile Biochar Production in the United States of America

Pyrolysis is a combustion process of woody biomass conducted under low or no oxygen conditions. It converts any kind of biomass into biochar, bio-oil, or biogas. Hence plants’ woody material can also be converted into bioenergy products. Valorization of woody biomass in the form of energy-rich compound biochar is a more sustainable technique as compared to conventional burning which leads to toxicity to the environment. Innovations and the need to limit open burning have resulted in numerous mobile and fixed plant pyrolysis methods that burn a variety of woody residues. Production technologies that reduce the need for open burning, the main source of potential pollutants, fall under the regulations in the Clean Air Act of 1990. This Act is the legal instrument to regulate air pollution at its source across the United States of America and it is implemented and enforced through the Environmental Protection Agency, in coordination with sister agencies. One newer innovation for reducing wood residues and emissions is an air curtain incinerator. Currently, the Clean Air Act regulates stationary solid waste incinerators, and this is also applied to mobile air curtain incinerators burning woody biomass. However, other woody biochar production methods (e.g., flame cap kilns) are not subjected to these regulations. Discrepancies in the interpretation of definitions related to incineration and pyrolysis and the myriad of differences related to stationary and mobile air curtain incinerators, type of waste wood from construction activities, forest residues, and other types of clean wood make the permit regulations confusing as permits can vary by jurisdiction. This review summarizes the current policies, regulations, and directives related to in-woods biochar production and the required permits.

Residential heating, fuelwood demand and tree species: Implications for native forests in the South of Chile

This study compares revealed versus stated household fuelwood preferences for particular tree species, explores the underlying factors, and discusses the implications for native forests. We used a cross-sectional survey of over 550 fuelwood consumers spanning rural areas to small, medium and large cities in the Los Lagos region of Chile conducted in 2020. We employed the Generalized Ordered Logit Model (GOLOGIT) and Multinomial Logit Model of household choice of major tree species for fuelwood. Our results show a significant misalignment between revealed and stated tree species preferences. Household tree species preferences for fuelwood is determined by fuel-value index (FVI), household expenditure, awareness of the relationship between fuelwood production and deforestation, and spatial heterogeneity. Household expenditure, as a proxy of family income, leads to selection of higher FVI tree species, though it is dependent on forest location and accessibility as well. As particular native species are those with high FVI, this implies a possible relationship between household income and native forest degradation that needs to be further explored. At the same time, awareness of deforestation is correlated with households buying the more abundant but less preferred species of fuelwood. These results point to potential impacts on native forests in Southern Chile, which will vary according to tree species´ ecological characteristics, their regeneration potential, and harvesting methods used. Current policies incentivizing better thermal insulation of homes would allow people to use more abundant non-preferred tree species for fuelwood. These findings point to a need for continued research on how improved energy and forestry regulations can support more sustainable fuelwood consumption decisions within local fuelwood markets and better assessments of forest impacts of such policies.

Biomass and bioenergy perspectives of a coal region: status quo, potential and scenarios in Lusatia

Coal has been one of the main fuels used in Europe. Its decreasing role due to the ongoing transformation of the energy system will create significant socio-economic challenges. The switch into renewable energy systems could be an alternative to maintain jobs and economic activities within the affected regions. Biomass use and bioenergy can play an important role in the energy transition. Instead of energy crops, forest and agricultural residues should be used as biogenic energy sources in the future to avoid impacts on land use and food security. The main objective of this article is to investigate the biomass potential of a coal region and to provide scenarios for the future development of bioenergy production. Due to the changing framework conditions and, as a result, the different biomass focuses, previous bioenergy potential estimates must be reviewed. The methods for determining the potential of biomass for energy production was used for Lusatia (in German: Lausitz), the second largest coal region in Germany. These methods can also be applied in other regions. As a first step, the regional status quo assessment of cultivated areas and yields had decisive relevance for calculating biomass potential ranges. In a second step, the current bioenergy facilities in the region were identified, with a focus on power and heat production. The third step was the estimation of future regional bioenergy use. Therefore, the regional potential was gathered with the generally supra-regional framework conditions. For this purpose, national scenario studies were used, which contain the relevant target values and framework conditions. Two scenarios were developed for future bioenergy estimations: a conservative path based on the current policies and a progressive path, derived from the goal of climate neutrality by 2045. The results show a qualitative comparison among both scenarios and the previously determined potential ranges. Bioenergy can probably contribute to achieving climate neutrality with an increase in wood-fired systems, while agricultural bioenergy potential is likely to decline. In the discussion section, however, the uncertainty of these results is pointed out, as future use of bioenergy will be heavily influenced by the regulatory framework, competition with material use and the influences of climate change.

LOGISTICS CLUSTERS AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Supply chain resilience in the face of shocks has arisen as a policy issue due to the multilateral trading system lowering trade barriers. Innovations in transportation technology created intelligent transport systems and production fragmentation of global supply chains. However, climate shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic restructured supplies in the global markets. At the same time, geopolitical conflict and tensions emerged with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, increased China’s military activity, introduced additional tension, and created difficulties for the supply chains. On the other hand, the current industrial policy, aiming at national economic growth, is motivated by objectives different from increasing company-level productivity or spillovers between sectors. The concern primarily revolves around supply chain resilience, the fear of weaponizing exports, supporting technological advancement, and the need for policymakers to introduce greater control over economic activity in anticipation of potential shocks. In cross-border supply chains, some governments seek to coordinate their industrial policies with the most significant partners without implementing measures at the national level (Bown, 2023). Overlaying other considerations is the existential threat of climate change, a significant driver behind many modern industrial policy initiatives. That is leading to the rebirth of the idea of logistic clusters uniting different partners in size with foreign trade-oriented activities, aiming at efficiency as well as resiliency of the logistics chains. Based mainly on deep secondary research, this paper addresses the rebirth of cluster ideas in international transport and logistic activities.

Assessment of Households’ Perceptions of Health Co-Benefits in Relation to the Willingness to Undertake Energy Retrofits in Barcelona

Energy retrofits have, so far, been studied from the perspective of economic benefits that undertaking energy retrofit brings. They have also been of interest in the pursuit of reducing carbon emissions. However, few have studied the perception of health co-benefits of energy retrofits. Therefore, this paper seeks to shed light on how the residents’ perception of their health affects their decision to undertake an energetic retrofit. The focus of this article is to determine how residents perceive their health and their willingness to undertake energy retrofits to improve their health in the municipality of Barcelona. The methods used were in-depth interviews with experts and face-to-face and surveys conducted online. The results were analysed using descriptive, segmental, and unconditional logistic regression. We also analysed if awareness of the health co-benefits of retrofits corresponded with the respondent’s housing conditions, socio-demographics, and willingness to energy retrofit their homes. A total of 127 participants were included, of which 6.3% listed health co-benefit improvements as an influencing factor in undertaking an energy retrofit. The survey findings show that the less educated households are less aware of the health co-benefits of energy retrofits. These findings reveal the need to re-evaluate the current energy and housing policies.

Preventing Further Tragedies of the Commons in Warming: Insights from Global Climate Policy

Based on the theory of the tragedy of the commons and the background of global warming, this paper examines the emergence, development, and specific problems of current international climate policies at the political economy level. The aim is to provide the global community with sustainable policy recommendations to address the challenges of climate change effectively. The paper explores complex topics like resource distribution, carbon emissions, climate adaptation, and international cooperation using an interdisciplinary approach. The study underscores the crucial role of economic policies in guiding resource use to combat global warming. It also emphasizes the challenges posed by international cooperation, political will, and social acceptance. The paper further discusses measures like establishing standardized standards for resource extraction and highlights the importance of long-term planning among nations. In conclusion, even though the tragedy of the commons poses significant challenges in the context of climate change, these can be mitigated through specific economic measures.

Subsidies or cost-reflective energy tariffs? Alternative pathways for decarbonizing the residential sector and implications for cost efficiency

This study assesses alternative energy technologies (i.e., PV and battery systems, electric heat pumps, hybrid gas heating with solar thermal energy) in terms of profitability and CO2 emissions, for the case of two simulated typical households living in detached houses in Germany. Under the status-quo regulatory framework, the energy transition in the heating sector is fostered through grants for replacing old heating systems, whereas PV generation is fostered by feed-in tariffs and indirect subsidies for self-consumption. This study considers an alternative regulatory scenario with a more market-oriented approach, finding that a CO2-oriented reform of energy surcharges and taxes, as well as a reform of network charges, can support a more cost-efficient energy transition in the residential sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of the consistency, cost efficiency and effectiveness of past and current policies underpinning the energy transition in the residential sector.

POSITION STATEMENT: Pass the RESTORE (Re-entry Support Through Opportunities for Resources and Essentials) Act.

Under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), current federal policy mandates a lifetime ban for individuals with a past felony drug conviction from receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits. Denying nutritional and financial assistance to individuals with a past felony conviction will widen existing structural health inequities, set back individuals' successful re-entry into society, and contribute to recidivism and poorer health outcomes. Therefore, the Society of Behavioral Medicine supports the RESTORE ACT (Re-Entry Support Through Opportunities for Resources and Essentials Act), which would repeal the lifetime ban on receiving SNAP and TANF benefits for individuals convicted of a drug felony.

The multilingual university: language ideology, hidden policies and language practices in Malawian universities

ABSTRACT Globalisation is increasingly affecting universities worldwide. In African contexts, language policies exhibit an inheritance situation in which countries continue to implement policies which favour colonial languages in education. This paper investigates the Malawian higher education context and the ways in which staff engage with multilingualism. It examines the implementation of language policies by staff in their classrooms and explores the attitudes of staff members towards the current monolingual language policy and practices in higher education in the country. The paper draws on a 4-month ethnography carried out in eight Malawian universities. Findings indicate that the language ‘rules’ imposed by staff are highly variable and that diverse language ‘policies’ are implemented and enforced by staff, some of whom operate strictly monolingual approaches while others adopt multilingual approaches. Staff display a range of attitudes towards multilingualism, influenced by competing pressures of ensuring students comprehend the subject matter while also seeking to improve their English skills against the broader backdrop of language practices and expectations in the country.

The role of social partners in facilitating return to work: a comparative analysis for Belgium and Italy

Purpose This study explores how social partners contribute to the successful return to work (RTW) of individuals affected by chronic diseases, employing the framework of actor-centred institutionalism.Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts a comparative case study methodology to assess the role of social partners in the workplace (re-)integration of people with chronic disease in Belgium and Italy, both of which represent well-developed industrial relations systems yet having different institutional and policy frameworks on RTW.Findings Institutional factors are found to affect the type and degree of social partners' commitment and contribution to RTW. Differences in their commitment can be explained by their varied degrees of integration in public policy formation, which explain their different preferred stages of interactions in this field: national tripartite social dialogue for Belgium; and sectoral collective bargaining for Italy. Unsatisfactory outcomes of social partners’ contribution in facilitating RTW processes are attributed to the fragmentation of the legal framework and uneven development of collective bargaining in Italy. In Belgium, the authors find the presence of cumbersome RTW procedures downplaying the role of the worker representative.Originality/value This paper adds empirical evidence to the limited literature on the role of social partners in facilitating RTW and sheds light on how to improve the current policy context. It suggests involving the social partners in the development of a comprehensive public policy framework, which should allow for an early, flexible and multi-stakeholder (re-)integration procedure following chronic disease.

Conflict, Peace, and Sustainable Development Case Study: The Dichotomy of Abdul Latif Forest Park, Sinjai Regency

As outlined in the 2015-2025 Long-Term Development Plan (RPJP) of Sinjai Regency, which is also regulated by the 2012 Regulation of the Minister of Environment and Forestry regarding Facilities and Infrastructure in Tahura Nature Tourism. Although the implementation of the Abdul Latif Grand Forest Park campsite construction was legally sound, the development faced opposition from local indigenous communities and environmental activists concerned that it would harm local values, as the forest is considered sacred. Ecologically, the development will alter the natural structure, leading to deforestation, an increased risk of landslides, and the obstruction of access to water for plantation and community agricultural purposes. This opposition is further reinforced by the area's status as a protected forest, as well as the presence of the endemic Anoa animal, which also factors into the decision to reject the development. This study employs a case study approach to achieve a thorough understanding of the examined events. The study's findings suggest that the conflict between the government and local indigenous communities stems from a mismatch between the current policy and the values that should be upheld, in addition to the lack of extensive communication among the local government, local indigenous communities and environmental activists.

A Common Purpose? Social Work Students’ Social Justice Related Views in Finland and the island of Ireland

Abstract Exploring social work students’ views to understand how equipped they are to pursue the social justice mission of the profession should be of central academic and practical interest. There are, however, surprisingly few empirical studies focussing on social work students’ views on social justice-related issues from a comparative viewpoint. Such knowledge is thought to be of a wider international interest from a number of perspectives, including social work education and student exchange and, in a wider context, for the development of social work as a profession and for discussing the prerequisites for shared international notions of social work. This article explores the views of social work students studying in different socio-economic contexts and welfare regimes in relation to some key aspects assumed to be vital for the profession. The results based on survey data from student cohorts in Finland (N = 608) and the island of Ireland (N = 279) support the general conclusion that there are important, similar patterns of motivations and understandings amongst the students, despite substantial differences in histories, welfare state developments, current policies and social conditions in various jurisdictions. The results are of interest to educators across countries internationally and provide an important basis for future similar studies.

Health Policy for Prostate Cancer Early Detection in the European Union and the Impact of Opportunistic Screening: PRAISE-U Consortium.

With the new policy recommendation in 2022 to explore the possibilities of screening for prostate cancer by the European Commission, the landscape for prostate cancer early detection is evolving. In line with this recommendation, the PRAISE-U project aims to evaluate the early detection and diagnosis of prostate cancer through customised and risk-based screening programmes, with the goal to align protocols across European Union member states. This systematic review is part of the PRAISE-U project, with the goal to review the policy, medical guideline recommendations, and the current level of opportunistic screening presented in the scientific literature on prostate cancer early detection from 2016 to 2023 in European Union member states. An extensive literature search was performed on 1 June 2023 in a large number of databases, including Embase.com, Medline (Ovid), Web of Science Core Collection, Google Scholar, and Policy Commons. We identified 318 articles (qualitative, quantitative, and reviews), of which 41 were included in the full-text screening. Seventeen articles were ultimately identified as eligible for inclusion. The included articles revealed significant variations towards PSA-based early detection policies for prostate cancer in nine European countries. Despite official recommendations, opportunistic screening was prevalent across all nine countries regardless of recommendations for or against PSA-based early detection. This systematic review suggests that the current early detection policies are not fit for purpose. High levels of opportunistic screening and overdiagnosis persist, prompting policy recommendations for standardised guidelines, informed decision making, and increased awareness to improve efficiency and effectiveness in early detection.

Health Disparities in Acidosis Risks

Background: Health disparities in acidosis risk are entangled with a range of factors including clinical conditions, genomic traits, and demographic features. Current clinical guidelines and policies on the safety of metformin have not yet taken holistic considerations of health disparities and other risk factors. The All of Us (AoU) research dataset provides comprehensive information including longitudinal real-world data for diseases and treatments, genetic data, and surveys for social determinants of health, with a focus on minority groups and the underserved population. This study leverages the AoU data to understand the health disparities in acidosis risk and provides real-world evidence to support clinical decisions.
 Methods: A case-control design was used to identify risk factors associated with emergent acidosis events, with a 1:4 matching using propensity scores specified by enrollment date, number of diagnoses, and length of medical history. Risk factors were sex, age, race, ethnicity, metformin use, Charlson comorbidities, and insurance status. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using conditional logistic regression.
 Results: The study includes the case group (n=2,666) and the control group (n=10,664). Health disparities were observed among participants. Compared with those who did not have health insurance, those with employer provided insurance (aOR: 0.49, 95%CI: 0.40 – 0.61), Medicare (aOR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.52 – 0.74), or Medicaid (aOR: 0.80, 95%CI: 0.66 – 0.97) were less likely to develop acidosis. African Americans (aOR: 1.35, 95%CI: 1.15 – 1.58) showed higher acidosis risk. Other major risk factors include liver disease, renal disease, diabetes, and metformin use.
 Conclusion: Health insurance coverage is a major determinant of acidosis risk. Patients with kidney and liver diseases or diabetes should be monitored carefully for signs of acidosis, especially if they have been prescribed metformin. In future work, for diabetes patients with both kidney and liver diseases, pharmacogenomics analysis will be performed for precision management of metformin-related acidosis risks.

Peningkatan kualitas pendidikan anak usia dini: peran pendekatan pedagogis dan kualifikasi guru

This research explores the role of pedagogical approaches and teacher qualifications on the quality of Early Childhood Education. Through an analysis of current educational literature and policy, this study highlights the importance of a child-centred pedagogical approach, which emphasizes creating learning environments that support and stimulate children's holistic development. Next, this study examines the role of teacher qualifications. Research findings show that the integration of effective pedagogical approaches and highly qualified teachers creates an optimal learning environment, which is critical for supporting children's development at an early age. This study provides insight for curriculum developers, educational practitioners, and policy makers on ways to improve the quality of education at the PAUD level, which is a critical stage in child development.

Contribution of the carbon tax, phase-out of thermoelectric power plants, and renewable energy subsidies for the decarbonization of Chile − A CGE model and microsimulations approach

There are various climate policies to decarbonize the energy matrix of a country. In the case of Chile, a carbon tax of 5 USD/tCO2 was initially implemented, and later, a schedule was established for the phase-out of coal-fired thermoelectric plants, all the above in the absence of subsidies for non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE). This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and microsimulations to assess the contribution of current climate policies and other more demanding scenarios that accelerate the decarbonization of the Chilean energy matrix, considering economic, environmental, and distributional impacts. Specifically, carbon taxes are simulated with and without complementary climate policies (phase-out of coal-fired power plants and NCRE subsidies). The results show that the scenarios that combine the three climate policies generate a greater decrease in greenhouse gas emissions (40.4% ∼ 57.5%). Besides, the drop in GDP is more pronounced when coal-fired thermoelectric plants phase out (0.3% additional), and NCRE subsidies contribute to moderately reducing emissions. However, NCRE subsidies reduce the negative effect on households’ expenditure and income, especially in the poorest quintile. Finally, microsimulations show marginal changes in income distribution and an increase of up to 0.4 percentage points in the poverty rate.

Escalating competition in NHS: implications for healthcare quality and workforce sustainability.

The UK's National Health Service (NHS) faces escalating competition ratios for specialty training positions, with application rates dramatically outpacing the growth in available posts. This trend contributes to systemic bottlenecks and challenges traditional career progression pathways within medicine. In this evolving landscape, the once-certain career progression within medicine is now increasingly uncertain. This commentary explores the complex dynamics of increased medical school admissions against stagnant specialty training placements and the broader strategic implications for workforce planning within the NHS. It critically evaluates the implications of current funding policies, which seem to prioritise an expansion of nondoctor healthcare roles over the development of specialist training, raising concerns about the long-term patient care quality and safety. Key recommendations include a reassessment of medical education expansion, a review of funding allocation, increased support for specialty training, and government accountability for healthcare workforce planning. The urgent need for strategic policy reform is underscored to ensure that NHS can sustain a high-quality, specialist-led healthcare provision in the face of rising competition and workforce pressures.

Concordance in Medical Urgency Classification of Discharge Diagnoses and Reasons for Visit

Current policies to divert emergency department (ED) visits for less medically urgent conditions to more cost-effective settings rely on retrospective adjudication of discharge diagnoses. However, patients present to the ED with concerns, making it challenging for clinicians. To characterize ED visits based on the medical urgency of the presenting reasons for visit and to explore the concordance between discharge diagnoses and reasons for visit. In this retrospective, cross-sectional study, a nationwide sample of ED visits by adults (aged ≥18 years) in the US from the 2018 and 2019 calendar years' ED data of the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey was used. An algorithm to probabilistically assign ED visits into medical urgency categories based on the presenting reason for visit was developed. A 3-step, look-back method was applied using an updated version of the New York University ED algorithm, and a map of all possible discharge diagnoses to the same reasons for visit was developed. Analyses were conducted in July and August 2023. The main outcome was probabilistic medical urgency classification of reasons for visits and discharge diagnoses and their concordance. We analyzed 27 068 ED visits (mean age, 48.2% years [95% CI, 47.5%-48.9% years]) representing 190.7 million visits nationwide. Women (mean, 57.0% [95% CI, 55.9%-58.1%]) and patients with public health insurance coverage, including Medicare (mean, 24.9% [95% CI, 21.9%-28.0%]) and Medicaid (mean, 25.1% [95% CI, 21.0%-29.2%]), accounted for the largest share of ED visits, and a mean of 13.2% (95% CI, 11.4%-15.0%) of all visits resulted in a hospital admission. Overall, about 38.5% and 53.9% of all ED visits were classified with 100% and 75% probabilities, respectively, as injury related, emergency care needed, emergent but primary care treatable, nonemergent, or mental health or substance use disorders related based on discharge diagnosis compared with 0.4% and 12.4%, respectively, of all encounters based on patients' reason for visit. Among discharge diagnoses assigned with high certainty to only 1 urgency category using the New York University ED algorithm, between 38.0% (95% CI, 36.3%-39.6%) and 57.4% (95% CI, 56.0%-58.8%) aligned with the probabilistic categorical assignments of their corresponding reasons for visit. In this cross-sectional study of 190.7 million ED visits among adults aged 18 years or older, a smaller percentage of reasons for visit could be prospectively categorized with high accuracy to a specific medical urgency category compared with all visits based on discharge diagnoses, and a limited concordance between reasons for visit and discharge diagnoses was found. Alternative methods are needed to identify the medical necessity of ED encounters more accurately.

Problems and Prospects of Administrative Prejudice in the Criminal Law of Russia

Introduction. The emergence and then increase during the current decade of the number of corpus delicti with administrative prejudice in the acting Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Code, the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) proves the good result achieved by the legislators in implementation of this legal construct of the Special part of the Code, as well as the efficiency of this tool in fulfilling the current policy of our state referring to the criminal law. Every year a number of such kind of corpus delicti in the Code is only increasing, which indicates the correctness of the policy taken by the legislators more than ten years ago on integrating it into the Code. The aim of the study is to identify the features and problems in the legislative design of the corpus delicti with the administrative prejudice in the Russian criminal law and to propose ways to optimize the corpus delicti of particularly this kind of offences.Materials and Methods. The methodological basis of the research are the provisions of the national criminal law, for which the corpus delicti with administrative prejudice are foreseen, studied both in historical and present day aspects, criminal laws of the near-abroad countries, as well as the scientific works of the researchers studying this topic. The following methodological tools have been used during the research: the general scientific, as well as some specific scientific methods, i.e., dialectical, system analysis, legalistic, comparative legal and other methods.Results. The historical and present day aspects of the administrative prejudice application in design of corpus delicti, the features of design of the corpus delicti with administrative prejudice and various variants of prejudice integrated by the legislators in the acting criminal law of the Russian Federation have been analysed. The legislative examples of the administrative prejudice application in some of the Criminal Codes of the CIS countries have been provided. The authors’ own standpoint regarding the presence of the corpus delicti with administrative prejudice in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation has been expressed. The authors’ conclusions and suggestions on optimisation and expansion of such norms in the acting criminal law of the Russian Federation have been made. The tendency for the further increase of the number of corpus delicti with administrative prejudice in the acting Criminal Code of the Russian Federation has been supported.Discussion and Conclusion. The conducted research is considered important for the Russian juridical science due to the classification of the prejudices presented by the authors, which implies the availability of "classical" (simple) and "double" (complex) administrative prejudice in the corpus delicti. The amendments proposed by the authors to a number of provisions of the Special part of the Code, in particular, to Articles 180, 213, 330 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation about including the administrative prejudice, as a mandatory feature of the objective side of the above corpus delicti, are recommended to be used in further research of the corpus delicti with administrative prejudice

Water pollution scenarios and response options for China

China has formulated several policies to alleviate the water pollution load, but few studies have quantitatively analyzed their impacts on future water pollution loads in China. Based on grey water footprint (GWF) assessment and scenario simulation, we analyze the water pollution (including COD, NH3-N, TN and TP) in China from 2021 to 2035 under different scenarios for three areas: consumption-side, production-side and terminal treatment. We find that under the current policy scenario, the GWF of COD, NH3-N, TN, and TP in China could be reduced by 15.0 % to 39.9 %; the most effective measures for GWF reduction are diet structure change (in the consumption-side area), and the wastewater treatment rate and livestock manure utilization improvement (in the terminal treatment area). However, the GWF will still increase in 8 provinces, indicating that the current implemented policy is not universally effective in reducing GWF across all provinces. Under the technical improvement scenario, the GWF of the four pollutants will decrease by 54.9 %–71.1 % via improvements in the current measures related to current policies and new measures in the production-side area and the terminal treatment area; thus, GWF reduction is possible in all 31 provinces. However, some policies face significant challenges in achieving full implementation, and certain policies are only applicable to a subset of provinces. Our detailed analysis of future water pollution scenarios and response options to reduce pollution loads can help to inform the protection of freshwater resources in China and quantitatively assess the effectiveness of policies in other fields.