Current Habitat Research Articles

Distinct Ecological Habits and Habitat Responses to Future Climate Change in Two Subspecies of Magnolia sieboldii K. Koch, a Tree Endemic to East Asia.

Magnolia sieboldii, an important ornamental tree native to East Asia, comprises two subspecies in distinct regions, with wild populations facing suboptimal survival. This study aimed to understand the potential habitat distribution of these subspecies under future climate-change conditions to support climate-adaptive conservation. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with occurrence and environmental data to simulate the current and future suitable habitats under various climate scenarios. Precipitation in the warmest quarter played a crucial role in shaping the potential habitats of both subspecies; however, they exhibited different sensitivities to temperature-related variables and altitude. Magnolia sieboldii subsp. sieboldii is more sensitive to temperature seasonality and annual mean temperature, whereas Magnolia sieboldii subsp. japonica is more affected by altitude, mean temperature in the driest quarter, and isothermality. Currently, the subsp. sieboldii is predicted to have larger, more contiguous suitable habitats across northeastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, whereas the subsp. japonica occupies smaller, more disjunct habitats scattered in central and western Japan and the southern Chinese mountains. These two subspecies will respond differently to future climate change. Potentially suitable habitats for subsp. sieboldii are expected to expand significantly northward over time, especially under the SSP585 scenario compared with the SSP126 scenario. In contrast, moderately and highly suitable habitats for the subsp. japonica are projected to contract southward significantly. Therefore, we recommend prioritizing the conservation of the subsp. japonica over that of the subsp. sieboldii. Strategies include in situ and ex situ protection, introduction and cultivation, regional hybridization, and international cooperation. Our study offers valuable insights for the development of targeted conservation strategies for both subspecies of M. sieboldii to counteract the effects of climate change.

Predicting Changes in Potential Habitats of an Endemic Plant Species under SSP Scenarios: A Case Study of <italic>Eranthis byunsanensis</italic>

Background and objective: Climate change significantly impacts the growth environments of organisms that have adapted to natural environments. Endemic plants, which are native to specific regions, are particularly vulnerable to these changes. The conservation of these plants is a crucial national task. Currently, there is a lack of research on the habitat characteristics and conservation measures of specific species in Korea. This indicates a need for systematic research on field surveys of habitats for valuable species, the establishment of environmental variables, and long-term changes in suitable habitat areas. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the geographical distribution characteristics and select the optimal environmental variables for Eranthis byunsanensis, an endemic plant in the Korean Peninsula.Methods: To achieve this, we utilized an ensemble model in the R package biomod2 to analyze the current potential habitat and understand its distribution characteristics. We then predicted the changes in potential habitats for the mid-future (2041-2070) and the long-term future (2071-2100) based on climate change scenarios (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5). Finally, we conducted a comparative analysis of the differences between the scenarios.Results: Long-term projections indicate that potential habitat area is larger under SSP1-2.6, a scenario with active climate change mitigation policies, than under SSP5-8.5. Under SSP1-2.6, habitat remained relatively stable with expansion observed in coastal Gangwon-do. In contrast, SSP5-8.5, characterized by extreme climate change, led to significant habitat decline in Jeollabuk-do. Inland Jeollabuk-do experienced rapid habitat loss with a northeastward shift, while habitat along the East Sea coast of Gangwon-do expanded.Conclusion: This study's analysis of habitat change can serve as a crucial foundation for the conservation and management of endemic plants. Furthermore, it is expected to contribute to the development of response strategies to climate change and the identification of alternative habitats for endemic plants.

Non-adaptedness and vulnerability to climate change threaten Plathymenia trees (Fabaceae) from the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest

Climate change is increasing species extinction risk. The ability of a species to cope with climate change can be quantified by projecting distribution models and by estimating the risk of non-adaptedness using genomic data. The Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest in Tropical South America are increasingly threatened by habitat loss and anthropogenic climate change. This work aims to evaluate the ecological and genomic vulnerability of Plathymenia taxa and its lineages, P. reticulata, a Cerrado species, and P. foliolosa, an Atlantic Forest species, to determine their current and future habitat suitability and the mismatch between current local adaptation with the expected climate changes. The species distribution models predicted a high range loss for the Plathymenia lineages. The genotype-environment association analyses showed that the Plathymenia lineages have populations adapted to different precipitation and temperature seasonality regimes. The genomic offset analyses predict a mismatch between local adaptations and future climate for the Plathymenia indicating a high risk of non-adaptedness, especially in the pessimistic scenario. Our results show an elevated extinction risk of the species due to climate change. We suggest reevaluating the extinction risk and management of the Plathymenia species separately based on their differences in vulnerability to climate change.

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Habitat Suitability and Ecological Connectivity of Wych Elm (Ulmus glabra Huds.) in Türkiye

Understanding how climate change influences the geographical distribution of species within an ecological niche is essential for predicting habitat shifts and informing conservation efforts. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on habitat suitability and ecological connectivity of wych elm (Ulmus glabra Huds.) in Türkiye. The study explores the future distribution of U. glabra and how its connectivity is affected by habitat fragmentation arising from changing climatic conditions. Contextually, this paper aims to achieve two primary objectives: estimating the potential geographical ranges of U. glabra under different climate scenarios and assessing alterations in ecological connections between current and future habitats. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used along with Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), and the Probability of Connectivity (PC) index was applied to show possible transformations in distribution patterns of U. glabra over time. The findings suggest that there will be a reduction in the suitability of locations for the species. Moreover, it is expected that under future climate scenarios, ecological connectivity will decline, especially from 2061 to 2100 in the SSP585 scenario. Notably, significant alterations are anticipated during the latter half of the twenty-first century, mainly outside the coastal areas of the Black Sea, where extensive regions would become unsuitable. Additionally, the species is projected to shift its range, decreasing its presence in inland regions while expanding along the coasts. The results show the vulnerability of this species against climate change, thereby demanding adaptive conservation measures to preserve it within the forest ecosystems of Türkiye.

Benthic habitat mapping of the glass sponge (Vazella pourtalesii), and associated community composition on Sambro Bank, Scotian Shelf, Canada

Sponges have been identified as ecosystem engineers, providing habitat structure for many other benthic organisms, but are vulnerable to the impacts of bottom contact fishing. The Sambro Bank Sponge Conservation Area (SBSCA) protects a globally unique aggregation of the glass sponge (Vazella pourtalesii) off the east coast of Canada. Here, we present the first comprehensive, high-resolution mapping study of this site. Multispectral multibeam echosounder (MBES) mapping at three operating frequencies and benthic drop camera surveys were conducted at the SBSCA in 2022. Video data were analysed to quantify the abundance and location of V. pourtalesii and all associated benthic fauna and sediment characteristics. Using the MBES data as predictor variables, the study created a generalized linear mixed model of V. pourtalesii presence in the SBSCA, with 90.1% accuracy. Four seafloor benthoscape classes were identified from the video imagery, with statistically distinct benthic macrofaunal communities associated with each class. The study creates a baseline assessment of the current community composition and habitat characteristics of the site, which can be used for future ecological monitoring and management.

Genetic diversity loss in the Anthropocene will continue long after habitat destruction ends.

Genetic diversity within species is the basis for evolutionary adaptive capacity and has recently been included as a target for protection in the United Nations' Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). However, there is a lack of reliable large-scale predictive frameworks to quantify how much genetic diversity has already been lost, let alone to quantitatively predict future losses under different conservation scenarios in the 21st century. Combining spatio-temporal population genetic theory with population genomic data of 18 plant and animal species, we studied the dynamics of genetic diversity after habitat area losses. We show genetic diversity reacts slowly to habitat area and population declines, but lagged losses will continue for many decades even after habitats are fully protected. To understand the magnitude of this problem, we combined our predictive method with species' habitat area and population monitoring reported in the Living Planet Index, the Red List, and new GBF indicators. We then project genetic diversity loss in 13,808 species with a short-term genetic diversity loss of 13 - 22% and long-term loss of 42 - 48% with substantial deviations depending on the level of habitat fragmentation. These results highlight that protection of only current habitats is insufficient to ensure the genetic health of species and that continuous genetic monitoring alone likely underestimates long term impacts. We provide an area-based spatio-temporal predictive framework to develop quantitative scenarios of global genetic biodiversity.

A Pleistocene Biogeography in Miniature: The Small‐Scale Evolutionary History of Podarcis lusitanicus (Squamata, Lacertidae)

ABSTRACTAimRecent literature is unveiling more complex responses of biodiversity to Pleistocenic climatic oscillations than those derived from initial models based solely on southern glacial macrorefugia. Here, we zoom in to delve into the genetic diversity and population structure of Podarcis lusitanicus, a lizard species native to the north‐western Iberian Peninsula.LocationNorth‐western Iberian Peninsula.TaxonPodarcis lusitanicus.MethodsUtilising a comprehensive multilocus approach, we explored the species' phylogeography and demographic history at a very fine spatial scale and timeframe. Concurrently, we evaluated both current and historical habitat suitability for the species, linking it to the observed demographic trends. We examined DNA sequences from two mitochondrial (cytb and ND4) and three nuclear genes (ACM4, MC1R and PDC) in 230 specimens collected from 21 populations spanning most of the species' distribution range.ResultsOur findings corroborate cytonuclear discordances in Podarcis, with nuclear genes failing to identify the mitochondrial clades in P. lusitanicus. Despite its separation from other Podarcis species approximately 4 million years ago, its diversification occurred much more recently, around 0.4 million years ago, resulting in three monophyletic lineages that are geographically coherent. This pattern suggests that some lineages of P. lusitanicus might have gone extinct after the split from the common ancestor. Pleistocene climatic oscillations profoundly influenced the demographic history of the species. During warmer periods, such as the Last Interglacial, populations expanded and came into secondary contact, whereas during the Last Glacial Maximum, populations contracted and became isolated in multiple micro‐refugia. The subsequent Mid‐Holocene warming facilitated population recovery, range expansion and lineage admixture.Main ConclusionsThis study underscores the intricate interplay between isolation and dispersal at a microscale, driven by Pleistocene climatic fluctuations, which have profoundly shaped the genetic structure and diversity of Iberian terrestrial biodiversity and may remain overlooked by biogeographic studies at coarser scales.

Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Two Endemic Grassland Caterpillars on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on BIOMOD2 and Land Use Data.

This study has systematically investigated and compared the geographical distribution patterns and population density of G. menyuanensis (Gm) and G. qinghaiensis (Gq), which are endemic to the QTP region and inflict severe damage. Using a method combining the BIOMOD2 integration model (incorporating nine ecological niche models) and current species distribution data, this study has compared changes in potential habitats and distribution centers of these two species during ancient, present, and future climate periods and conducted a correlation test on the prediction results with land use types. The study results indicate that there are differences in geographical distribution patterns, distribution elevations, and population density of these two species. Compared with single models, the integration model exhibits prominent accuracy and stability with higher KAPPA, TSS, and AUC values. The distribution of suitable habitats for these two species is significantly affected by climatic temperature and precipitation. There is a significant difference between the potential habitats of these two species. Gm and Gq are distributed in the northeastern boundary area and the central and eastern areas of the QTP, respectively. The areas of their suitable habitats are significantly and positively correlated with the area of grassland among all land use types of QTP, with no correlations with the areas of other land use types of QTP. The potential habitats of both species during the paleoclimate period were located in the eastern and southeastern boundary areas of the QTP. During the paleoclimate period, their potential habitats expanded towards the Hengduan Mountains (low-latitude regions) in the south compared with their current suitable habitats. With the subsequent temperature rising, their distribution centers shifted towards the northeast (high-latitude) regions, which could validate the hypothesis that the Hengduan Mountains were refuges for these species during the glacial period. In the future, there will be more potential suitable habitats for these two species in the QTP. This study elucidates the ecological factors affecting the current distribution of these grass caterpillars, provides an important reference for designating the prevention and control areas for Gm and Gq, and helps protect the alpine meadow ecosystem in the region.

Climate change scenarios predict reduction in suitable habitats and range shifts for Ophiocordyceps sinensis (Berk.) in Hindu Kush Himalaya

The Hindu Kush Himalayan region has seen a faster pace of anthropogenic climate warming than the global average during the last 50 years. Since 1980s this region is experiencing intense climatic events notably elevation-dependent warming. Given its unique evolutionary background, rich variety of species, and significant endemism, it is crucial to comprehend the effects of climate change on species distributions in this area. Of particular interest are the fungi, which have been the subject of much fewer studies on how they will respond to climate change, despite the fact that they may have a significant role in the functioning and stability of ecosystems. We therefore selected Ophiocordyceps sinensis an alpine fungus species for predicting the effects of climate change on its distribution in Hindu Kush Himalaya. Regarded as one of the most expensive natural resources used in oriental medicine, Ophiocordyceps and its surrounding habitats are under threat from various ecological and anthropogenic factors. We used Species Distribution Modeling software Maxent 3.3.4 and a set of uncorrelated climatic (temperature and precipitation) and topographical (elevation, slope and aspect) variables at a spatial resolution of 2.5 arc minutes to model the suitable habitats. To predict the future distribution of O. sinensis we used future climate data from BCCCSM2- HR global circulation model for three emission scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). Maxent model predicted current and future habitats with high accuracy. Current potential distribution map of O. sinensis shows that high suitability areas occur in India, China, Nepal and Bhutan. Prediction maps under all three scenarios showed a large reduction in suitable habitats as compared to current climatic conditions. Analysis of range change reveals that species exhibits both range expansion and range contraction under climate change scenarios. Range contraction is noticeably more than range expansion causing overall reduction in the suitable habitats occupied by O. sinensis. ‘Centroid Range Shift’ analysis revealed potential suitable habitats will shift to South-West direction under all future scenarios with almost overlapping centroids.

Current and future habitat suitability modelling of Bambusa teres outside forest areas in Nepal under climate change scenarios

Bambusa teres Buch.-Ham. ex Munro (syn. Bambusa nutans subsp. capulata Stapleton) is a fast-growing perennial bamboo that has ecological, economic, cultural and climate change mitigation benefits. However, information on its current and future potential distribution outside forest areas across Nepal and the key factors affecting its growth and distribution are little known. We used a total of 298 occurrence points obtained from the National Bamboo Resource Assessment and 23 environmental variables to project the distribution of B. teres throughout its potential range in Nepal. Maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was utilized for this study. We assessed the performance of the model using a receiver operating characteristic curve and evaluated the relative importance of predictor variables through a Jackknife procedure. The model achieved a high level of performance with an area under the curve value of 0.928. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio_19), temperature seasonality (bio_4) and precipitation seasonality (bio_15) were the significant contributing variables for the distribution of B. teres. The most suitable habitat for B. teres, with a suitability index >0.6, covered 9264.6 km2, with large sections in Eastern and Central Nepal. However, under future climate change scenarios, the area of suitable habitat for the species is projected to increase across Nepal. This study serves as a baseline for assessing potential climate change impacts on B. teres and will enable the development of adaptive measures to protect and establish various bamboo populations outside forest areas in Nepal and globally.

Oxygen loss compromises growth and cognition of cuttlefish newborns.

Ocean deoxygenation and standing levels of hypoxia are shrinking fundamental niches, particularly in coastal areas, yet documented repercussions on species development and behaviour are limited. Here, we tackled the impacts of deoxygenation (7 mg O2 l-1), mild hypoxia (nocturnal 5 mg O2 l-1) and severe hypoxia (nocturnal 2 mg O2 l-1) on cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) development (hatching success, development time, mantle length), cognition (ability to learn individually and socially) and behaviour (ability to camouflage and to explore its surroundings spatially). We found that hypoxia yielded lower survival rates, smaller body sizes and inhibited predatory (increased latency to attack the prey) and anti-predator (camouflage) behaviours. Acute and chronic exposure to low oxygen produced similar effects on cognition (inability to socially learn, increased open-field activity levels, no changes in thigmotaxis). It is thus expected that, although cuttlefish can withstand oxygen limitation to a certain degree, expanding hypoxic zones will diminish current habitat suitability.

Predicting the effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal distribution of two endangered plant species, Silene leucophylla Boiss. and Silene schimperiana Boiss., using machine learning, in Saint Catherine Protected Area, Egypt

BackgroundClimate change significantly influences the geographical distribution of plant species worldwide, especially endemics. Endemic species are plants that live in limited distribution ranges of unique ecology and, thus, are the most vulnerable species to climate change. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of these species can assist in developing appropriate plans for their conservation. In this study, we aimed to apply various species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current potential distributions of two endangered plant species, Silene leucophylla (S. leucophylla, endemic) and Silene schimperiana (S. schimperiana, near-endemic), in Saint Catherine protected area (St. Catherine PA), Egypt. Then, using the best-fit model to project their future distribution under the maximum climate emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)). Six different SDMs were constructed using different geospatial raster imagery sets of environmental factors. For each model, five machine learning (ML) algorithms were used. The results of these ML algorithms were then ensembled by calculating the weighted average of their predictions.ResultsBased on the analysis of digital geospatial imageries produced by the best-fitting model, the predicted suitable areas of S. leucophylla and S. schimperiana were 23.1 km2 and 125 km2, respectively. These sites are located mainly in the high-elevation middle northern part of the study area. Annual precipitation, mean temperature of the driest quarter, altitude, and precipitation seasonality were the essential predictors of the distributions of both species. Future predictions of both species indicated opposing results between the studied species. Predictions in the 2050 and 2070 future conditions revealed significant range contraction for the distribution of S. leucophylla. For S. schimperiana, a range shift is predicted, with both range contraction and range expansion of its current suitable habitats, for the same future projections. Unfortunately, in 2080 predictions, both species could be projected to a complete loss from the entire area.ConclusionThis study highlights the importance of including diverse types of environmental variables in SDMs to produce more accurate predictions, rather than relying only on one variable type. It also revealed the potential negative impacts of future climate change on the distributions of two endangered plant species, S. leucophylla and S. schimperiana, inhabiting St. Catherine PA. Consequently, we urgently recommend the initiation of different plans and strategies seeking their conservation.

Ecological and anthropogenic factors influencing the Summer habitat use of Bos gaurus and its conservation threats in Chitwan National Park, Nepal.

Gaur (Bos gaurus) is listed as a vulnerable species in the IUCN Red List of threatened species due to the rapid population decline caused by human pressures in their habitats. To develop successful conservation plans, it is essential to understand the relationship between Gaur and their habitats. This study aimed to investigate the factors influencing Gaur habitat use and identify and rank conservation threats in Chitwan National Park, Nepal. Using line transect surveys, we recorded Gaur's presence via direct sightings and indirect signs (dung, footprints, horns) over an area of 176 km2 in July and August 2022. We used binary logistic regression models to determine the collected ecological and anthropogenic factors influencing the occurrence of Gaur and the relative whole-site threat ranking method to rank conservation threats. The results revealed that the probability of Gaur occurrence increases with moderate to high canopy cover, riverine and Shorea robusta dominated forests, and nearest distance to road/path/firelines, while decreasing with the presence of predators. Uncontrolled fire, invasive species, human disturbances, and climate change were ranked as the most prevailing threats to Gaur in our study area. Conservation managers should implement effective habitat management interventions, such as construction of waterhole, firelines maintenance, grassland management, and control of invasive species in the potential habitats, to safeguard and maintain the sustainability of Gaur populations and associated herbivores. Future studies should consider larger geographical settings and multiple seasons, and habitat suitability assessments should be conducted to determine current and future suitable habitat refugia for Gaur and other threatened wildlife species at the landscape level.

Predicting conservation priority areas in Borneo for the critically endangered helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil)

The critically endangered helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil) is under threat around its Southeast Asian range due to hunting and habitat loss. Dependant on primary rainforest habitats, the species is thought to be highly sensitive to habitat disturbance. Compounding this is the threat of climate change where equatorial ecosystems, such as those found on Borneo, are predicted to increase in temperature and precipitation. It is therefore important to identify whether the species’ suitable habitats, both now and in the future, are protected from further anthropogenic disturbance. In this study we used species distribution models to assess the extent of suitable habitat for R. vigil across Borneo, an island which has undergone rapid deforestation in recent years, and a stronghold for the species. Using 302 R. vigil occurrence records, four environmental and three land-use cover variables, we modelled R. vigil current habitat suitability, and two future projections under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2041–2060. Our results suggest that a quarter of Borneo's landmass is currently suitable for R. vigil. However, there is a steep decline in the predicted suitable habitat from 335,963 km2 (current scenario) to 73,170 km2 (future RCP 4.5), to 54,839 km2 (future RCP 8.5). Our model predicts that the amount of suitable habitat protected by current protected areas (PAs) and the planned Heart of Borneo (HoB) initiative will increase under future climate change, with the HoB protecting > 65 % of R. vigil suitable habitat across all projections. This is likely worsened by future land-use change not included in these models, which is a limitation to our study. We therefore encourage the connectivity of lowland PAs, and the continuation of HoB targets to prevent further decline of R. vigil habitat around Borneo. This study provides the first species-specific spatial assessment of the critically endangered helmeted hornbill distribution in response to climate change across current and planned protected regions in Borneo.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity in agricultural fields is explained by the historical proximity to natural habitats

Soil microbes are essential to maintain terrestrial ecosystem functionality. However, their diversity is threatened by land-use change, such as agricultural expansion and intensification. One important microbial group mediating the exchange of nutrients between plants and soil is arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. The response of microorganism diversity to present and past habitat amount has been poorly studied. Here, we evaluate the potential role of current and historical natural habitat availability in explaining the diversity of AM fungi in arable fields. We conducted a spatially intensive sampling of three agricultural fields in Estonia. Soil AM fungal diversity was determined by soil DNA metabarcoding. We related AM fungal species richness, along with beta diversity components (turnover and nestedness), to abiotic conditions and natural habitat area availability at different spatial scales and time periods. Our findings showed a positive relationship between AM fungal richness and the amount of natural habitat area. Specifically, current AM fungal species richness was best explained by the amount of natural habitat from 130 years earlier, indicating a legacy effect of past land use on current soil biodiversity. The amount of past natural areas was negatively related to the beta diversity turnover component, indicating a replacement of AM fungal species in disturbed sites. While biodiversity-friendly farming is useful in promoting diverse soil biota, historical legacies can be persistent. Maintaining natural habitats around agricultural fields can further promote soil AM fungal diversity for future generations.

Expanding the boundaries in the face of global warming: A lesson from genetic and ecological niche studies of Centaurium erythraea in Europe

Climate change affects plant species, especially those with restricted ecology and distribution. Centaurium erythraea is a flowering plant species in the Gentianaceae family, native to Europe, with its centre of diversity in the Mediterranean and western Asia. Of the 11 infraspecific taxa distinct from C. erythraea, only two are common in Europe: C. erythraea subsp. erythraea (widespread nominal subspecies) and C. erythraea subsp. majus (mainly distributed in the western Mediterranean region). Freshly collected samples of 36 plants from 11 localities across Lower Silesia (Central Europe) were utilised for taxonomic and genetic analysis. The barcode sequences of chloroplast DNA region matK were used for molecular analysis. Data deposited in GenBank was also used. Five haplotypes were identified among the analysed specimens. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques were applied to predict the current and future (short- and long-term projections) potential distribution of C. erythraea subsp. majus and to identify the most influential climatic factors. Despite the typical Mediterranean distribution, the presence of C. erythraea subsp. majus outside its natural range in SW Poland has been confirmed by morphological and genetic studies. The mean monthly precipitation of the wettest quarter and the mean daily temperatures of the warmest quarter were identified as the key climatic factors. Short-term scenarios suggest that C. erythraea subsp. majus will maintain most of its current suitable habitats and potentially expand into the lowlands of Central Europe. However, long-term projections indicate a potential reduction in its currently suitable areas, especially in the southern parts of its range, with a possible expansion into north-western Europe. The results of these studies provide clear evidence of the impact of ongoing climate change on species range changes. These findings suggest that climate change may create new opportunities for Mediterranean species to spread to new regions, using C. erythraea subsp. majus as an example.

Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of two alpine Rhododendron in Southwest China

Mountains of Southwest China (MSC) serve as a prominent geographical distribution center for Rhododendron delavayi and Rhododendron irroratum (Ericaceae). These mountains are currently experiencing an unparalleled warming trend, which poses severe challenges to the survival of these keystone alpine Rhododendron species. However, the geographical distribution responses of these species to climate change remain incompletely understood and are often overlooked. Here, we constructed ensemble models (EMs) using ten models of five algorithms to calibrate ecological niche models and predict suitable habitat areas for the two Rhododendron species across four climate emission scenarios over three distinct periods. Our analysis indicated the higher importance of elevation than temperature and precipitation in shaping the spatial distribution of the two alpine Rhododendron species. The current suitable habitats of R. delavayi and R. irroratum have areas spanning 14.85 × 104 and 11.01 × 104 km2, respectively, which are mostly distributed in the western and central regions of MSC. The suitable habitat of R. delavayi is projected to decrease by 15.09–75.31 %, but the potential habitat of R. irroratum is expected to shrink by12.71 % to 76.8 % in different future climate scenarios. The suitable habitats of these species may become confined in a “summit trap” within relatively low-altitude regions, whereas habitats distributed at high altitudes may serve as “biological refuges.” The future distribution of the two alpine Rhododendron species will shift to high altitudes in westward and northward regions, with substantial thermal and hydrothermal changes as the primary drivers of habitat alteration and migration patterns. The losses or benefits for species under climate warming depend on their ecological niches and geographical location, which provide a geographical guidance for the long-term conservation and sustainable use of species and essential insights into the spatial conservation assessment of alpine plant groups in biodiversity hotspots in the future.

The evolutionary history and biogeographical distribution of the Mesozoic relic genus Chilelimnophila (Diptera, Limoniidae)

Abstract This study presents novel findings that expand our understanding of the evolutionary history and diversity of the Limoniidae subfamily Limnophilinae, with a specific focus on the relict genus Chilelimnophila. The family Limoniidae is well documented in the fossil record, with many species considered relicts in the modern fauna. Our study is based on the discovery of the first fossil specimens of Chilelimnophila in both Cretaceous Spanish and Kachin amber. The new materials have allowed the establishment of a new subgenus Chilelimnophila (Ribeironia) Krzemiński, Kania-Kłosok et Arillo, subgen. nov. and three new species: Chilelimnophila (Ribeironia) amorimi Krzemiński, Kania-Kłosok et Arillo, sp. nov., Chilelimnophila (Chilelimnophila) wangi Krzemiński, Kania-Kłosok et Arillo, sp. nov., and Chilelimnophila (Chilelimnophila) parva Krzemiński, Kania-Kłosok et Arillo, sp. nov. This research also significantly extends the stratigraphic range of the genus, providing evidence of its existence dating back to the Early Cretaceous period. The morphology and phylogenetic analysis of Chilelimnophila and related genera within the Limoniidae subfamily Limnophilinae provide valuable insights into the evolutionary relationships of these organisms. Furthermore, our research highlights the unique environmental conditions of Cretaceous Spanish and Kachin amber formations, which differ significantly from the current habitat of these organisms.

Habitat suitability and distribution patterns of Rouget's rail (Rougetius rougetii Guérin-méneville, 1843) in Ethiopia.

Geographical distribution and diversity patterns of bird species are influenced by climate change. The Rouget's rail (Rougetius rougetii) is a ground-dwelling endemic bird species distributed in Ethiopia and Eritrea. It is a near-threatened species menaced by habitat loss, one of the main causes of population declines for bird species. The increasing effects of climate change may further threaten the species' survival. So far, the spatial distribution of this species is not fully documented. With this study, we develop current potential suitable habitat and predict the future habitat shift of R. rougetii based on environmental data such as bioclimatic variables, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation using 10 algorithms. We evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the bird's distribution and how it shifts under climate change scenarios. We used 182 records of R. rougetii from Ethiopia and nine bioclimatic, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation variables to run the 10 model algorithms. Among 10 algorithms, eight were selected for ensembling models according to their predictive abilities. The current suitable habitats for R. rougetii were predicted to cover an area of about 82,000 km2 despite being highly fragmented. The model suggested that temperature seasonality (bio4), elevation, and mean daily air temperatures of the driest quarter (bio9) contributed the most to delimiting suitable areas for this species. R. rougetii is sensitive to climate change associated with elevation, which leads shrinking distribution of suitable areas. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of habitat loss of R. rougetii suggests the importance of climate change mitigation and implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for this threatened endemic bird species.

Will cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus L.) become extinct in the forests of Türkiye in the future?

Changing climate conditions and different climate scenarios on a global scale are associated with the shrinkage, fragmentation and even extinction of habitats of important bird species. Based on this, the aim is to conduct habitat suitability modelling and mapping of the cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus), which has the largest body among the four different vulture species in the world, under the circumstances of climate change in Türkiye. MaxEnt method was performed to reveal the current habitat suitability model of the cinereous vulture, which is an indicator of old and high-quality black pine forests in terms of biological diversity in Türkiye. It was determined that the variables contributing to the current habitat suitability model of the cinereous vulture were bedrock, isothermality, landform classification and seasonal precipitation. Chelsa climate scenarios (SSP126-SSP370-SSP585) for the year 2100 were used to reveal the effects of changing climate conditions on the cinereous vulture. Mapping results according to different scenarios were classified as 0.5 – unsuitable, 0.51-0.8 – suitable and 0.81-1.0 – the most suitable habitat. According to the mapping results based on different year and scenarios, cinereous vulture has suitable habitat in a minimum of 16.13% of the study area in the present state, 13.95% in the year 2100 in the SPP126 climate scenario, 10.11% in the SPP370 climate scenario and 7.36% in the SPP585climate scenario. As a result, when the 2100 SSP585 climate scenario mapping was compared to the current habitat suitability mapping, it was determined that habitat suitability for the cinereous vulture decreased by approximately 55%. Therefore, these results will be a source of information to prevent the extinction of the cinereous vulture, in order to protect its current and potential distributions in advance, and to reduce the impact of changing climate conditions.