Current Global Models Research Articles

Effects of bryophyte and lichen cover on permafrost soil temperature at large scale

Abstract. Bryophyte and lichen cover on the forest floor at high latitudes exerts an insulating effect on the ground. In this way, the cover decreases mean annual soil temperature and can protect permafrost soil. Climate change, however, may change bryophyte and lichen cover, with effects on the permafrost state and related carbon balance. It is, therefore, crucial to predict how the bryophyte and lichen cover will react to environmental change at the global scale. To date, current global land surface models contain only empirical representations of the bryophyte and lichen cover, which makes it impractical to predict the future state and function of bryophytes and lichens. For this reason, we integrate a process-based model of bryophyte and lichen growth into the global land surface model JSBACH (Jena Scheme for Biosphere–Atmosphere Coupling in Hamburg). The model simulates bryophyte and lichen cover on upland sites. Wetlands are not included. We take into account the dynamic nature of the thermal properties of the bryophyte and lichen cover and their relation to environmental factors. Subsequently, we compare simulations with and without bryophyte and lichen cover to quantify the insulating effect of the organisms on the soil. We find an average cooling effect of the bryophyte and lichen cover of 2.7 K on temperature in the topsoil for the region north of 50° N under the current climate. Locally, a cooling of up to 5.7 K may be reached. Moreover, we show that using a simple, empirical representation of the bryophyte and lichen cover without dynamic properties only results in an average cooling of around 0.5 K. This suggests that (a) bryophytes and lichens have a significant impact on soil temperature in high-latitude ecosystems and (b) a process-based description of their thermal properties is necessary for a realistic representation of the cooling effect. The advanced land surface scheme, including a dynamic bryophyte and lichen model, will be the basis for an improved future projection of land–atmosphere heat and carbon exchange.

Intraplate stress field in South America from earthquake focal mechanisms

We present an updated compilation of earthquake focal mechanisms in Brazil together with focal mechanisms from the sub-Andean region (mainly from global CMT catalogs). All earthquakes in the sub-Andean region show reverse (majority) or strike-slip faulting mechanisms. Focal mechanisms in Brazil show reverse, strike-slip and normal faulting. Focal mechanisms of nearby earthquakes in the same tectonic environment were grouped and inverted for the stress tensor. In the sub-Andean region, stresses are compressional, as expected, with the principal major compression (S1) roughly E-W, on average. A slight rotation of S1 can be observed and is controlled by the orientation of the Andean plateau. In the sub-Andean region, the intermediate principal stress (S2) is also compressional (i.e., larger than the lithostatic pressure, Sv), a feature that is not always reproduced in numerical models published in the literature. In mid-plate South America stresses seem to vary in nature and orientation. In SE Brazil and the Chaco-Pantanal basins, S1 tends to be oriented roughly E-W with S2 approximately equal to S3. This stress pattern changes to purely compressional (both SHmax and Shmin larger than Sv) in the São Francisco craton. A rotation of SHmax from E-W to SE-NW is suggested towards the Amazon region. Along the Atlantic margin, the regional stresses are very much affected by coastal effects (due to continent/ocean spreading stresses as well as flexural effects from sediment load at the continental margin). This coastal effect tends to make SHmax parallel to the coastline and Shmin (usually S3) perpendicular to the coastline. Few breakout data and in-situ measurements are available in Brazil and are generally consistent with the pattern derived from the earthquake focal mechanisms. Although numerical models of global lithospheric stresses tend to reproduce the main large-scale features in most mid-plate areas, the S1 rotation from ∼E-W in SE Brazil to SE-NW in the Amazon region are not well explained by the current numerical models. This means that the observed stress pattern in mid-plate South America should provide new insights into upper mantle dynamics, distinct from current global convection models.

The Rock–Water–Ice Topographic Gravity Field Model RWI_TOPO_2015 and Its Comparison to a Conventional Rock-Equivalent Version

RWI_TOPO_2015 is a new high-resolution spherical harmonic representation of the Earth’s topographic gravitational potential that is based on a refined Rock–Water–Ice (RWI) approach. This method is characterized by a three-layer decomposition of the Earth’s topography with respect to its rock, water, and ice masses. To allow a rigorous separate modeling of these masses with variable density values, gravity forward modeling is performed in the space domain using tesseroid mass bodies arranged on an ellipsoidal reference surface. While the predecessor model RWI_TOPO_2012 was based on the \(5'\times 5'\) global topographic database DTM2006.0 (Digital Topographic Model 2006.0), the new RWI model uses updated height information of the \(1'\times 1'\) Earth2014 topography suite. Moreover, in the case of RWI_TOPO_2015, the representation in spherical harmonics is extended to degree and order 2190 (formerly 1800). Beside a presentation of the used formalism, the processing for RWI_TOPO_2015 is described in detail, and the characteristics of the resulting spherical harmonic coefficients are analyzed in the space and frequency domain. Furthermore, this paper focuses on a comparison of the RWI approach to the conventionally used rock-equivalent method. For this purpose, a consistent rock-equivalent version REQ_TOPO_2015 is generated, in which the heights of water and ice masses are condensed to the constant rock density. When evaluated on the surface of the GRS80 ellipsoid (Geodetic Reference System 1980), the differences of RWI_TOPO_2015 and REQ_TOPO_2015 reach maximum amplitudes of about 1 m, 50 mGal, and 20 mE in terms of height anomaly, gravity disturbance, and the radial–radial gravity gradient, respectively. Although these differences are attenuated with increasing height above the ellipsoid, significant magnitudes can even be detected in the case of the satellite altitudes of current gravity field missions. In order to assess their performance, RWI_TOPO_2015, REQ_TOPO_2015, and RWI_TOPO_2012 are validated against independent gravity information of current global geopotential models, clearly demonstrating the attained improvements in the case of the new RWI model.

Evaluation of regional ionospheric grid model over China from dense GPS observations

The current global or regional ionospheric models have been established for monitoring the ionospheric variations. However, the spatial and temporal resolutions are not enough to describe total electron content (TEC) variations in small scales for China. In this paper, a regional ionospheric grid model (RIGM) with high spatial-temporal resolution (0.5° × 0.5° and 10-min interval) in China and surrounding areas is established based on spherical harmonics expansion from dense GPS measurements provided by Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) and the International GNSS Service (IGS). The correlation coefficient between the estimated TEC from GPS and the ionosonde measurements is 0.97, and the root mean square (RMS) with respect to Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs) is 4.87 TECU. In addition, the impact of different spherical harmonics orders and degrees on TEC estimations are evaluated and the degree/order 6 is better. Moreover, effective ionospheric shell heights from 300 km to 700 km are further assessed and the result indicates that 550 km is the most suitable for regional ionospheric modeling in China at solar maximum.

An improved global zenith tropospheric delay model GZTD2 considering diurnal variations

Abstract. The zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) is an important atmospheric parameter in the wide application of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) technology in geoscience. Given that the temporal resolution of the current global zenith tropospheric delay model (GZTD) is only 24 h, an improved model, GZTD2, has been developed by taking the diurnal variations into consideration and modifying the model expansion function. The data set used to establish this model is the global ZTD grid data provided by Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) Atmosphere spanning from 2002 to 2009. We validated the proposed model with respect to ZTD grid data from GGOS Atmosphere, which was not involved in modeling, as well as International GNSS Service (IGS) tropospheric product. The obtained results of ZTD grid data show that the global average bias and root mean square (rms) for the GZTD2 model are 0.2 and 3.8 cm, respectively. The global average bias is comparable to that of the GZTD model, but the global average rms is improved by 3 mm. The bias and rms are far better than the EGNOS model and the UNB series models. The testing results from global IGS tropospheric product show the bias and rms (−0.3 and 3.9 cm) of the GZTD2 model are superior to that of GZTD (−0.3 and 4.2 cm), suggesting higher accuracy and reliability compared to the EGNOS model, as well as the UNB series models.

Estimation of global black carbon direct radiative forcing and its uncertainty constrained by observations

AbstractBlack carbon (BC) contributes to global warming by absorbing sunlight. However, the size of this contribution, namely, the direct radiative forcing (RF), ranges from +0.1 to +1.0 W m−2, largely due to differences between bottom‐up and observation‐based estimates. Current global models systematically underestimate BC radiation absorption relative to observations, which is often attributed to the underestimation of BC emissions. Several studies that adjusted emissions to correct biases of global aerosol models resulted in a revised upward estimate of the BC RF. However, the BC RF was never optimized against observations in a rigorous mathematical manner. Here we simulated the absorption of solar radiation by BC from all sources at the 10 km resolution by combining a highly disaggregated emission inventory with a nested aerosol climate model and a downscaling method. As a result, the normalized mean bias in BC radiation absorption was reduced from −51% to −24% in Asia and from −57% to −50% elsewhere. We applied a Bayesian method that makes the best account of all model, representativeness and observational uncertainties to estimate the BC RF and its uncertainty. Using the new emission inventory and high‐resolution model reduces uncertainty in BC RF from −101%/+152% to −70%/+71% over Asia and from −83%/+108% to −64%/+68% over other continental regions. Finally we derived an observationally constrained BC RF of 0.61 Wm−2 (0.16 to 1.40 as 90% confidence) as our best estimate. Our estimate implies that reduction in BC emissions would contribute to slow down global warming, but the contribution could be less than previously thought.

Unrealistically pristine air in the Arctic produced by current global scale models.

Black carbon aerosol (BCA) in the Arctic has profound impacts on the global climate system through radiation processes. Despite its enormous impacts, current global scale models, powerful tools for estimating overall impact, tend to underestimate the levels of BCA in the Arctic over several seasons. Using a global aerosol transport simulation with a horizontal grid resolution of 3.5 km, we determined that a higher resolution significantly reduced the underestimation of BCA levels in the Arctic, mainly due to an enhancement of the representation of low-pressure and frontal systems. The BCA mass loading in the Arctic simulated with 3.5-km grid resolution was 4.2-times larger than that simulated with coarse (56-km) grid resolution. Our results also indicated that grid convergence had not occurred on both the contrast between the cloud/cloud free areas and the poleward BCA mass flux, despite the use of the 3.5-km grid resolution. These results suggest that a global aerosol transport simulation using kilometre-order or finer grid resolution is required for more accurate estimation of the distribution of pollutants in the Arctic.

A novel approach for modelling vegetation distributions and analysing vegetation sensitivity through trait-climate relationships in China.

Increasing evidence indicates that current dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have suffered from insufficient realism and are difficult to improve, particularly because they are built on plant functional type (PFT) schemes. Therefore, new approaches, such as plant trait-based methods, are urgently needed to replace PFT schemes when predicting the distribution of vegetation and investigating vegetation sensitivity. As an important direction towards constructing next-generation DGVMs based on plant functional traits, we propose a novel approach for modelling vegetation distributions and analysing vegetation sensitivity through trait-climate relationships in China. The results demonstrated that a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) trained with a LMA-Nmass-LAI data combination yielded an accuracy of 72.82% in simulating vegetation distribution, providing more detailed parameter information regarding community structures and ecosystem functions. The new approach also performed well in analyses of vegetation sensitivity to different climatic scenarios. Although the trait-climate relationship is not the only candidate useful for predicting vegetation distributions and analysing climatic sensitivity, it sheds new light on the development of next-generation trait-based DGVMs.

A comparison of interannual hydrological polar motion excitation from GRACE and geodetic observations

Continental hydrology has a large influence on the excitation of polar motion (PM). However, these effects are far from being completely understood. Current global water storage models differ significantly from one another and are unable to completely represent the complex hydrological cycle, particularly at interannual scales. A promising alternative to study hydrological effects on PM is given by the GRACE satellite mission. In this study, we assess the ability of GRACE to investigate interannual hydrological PM excitations. For this purpose, we use the latest GRACE Release-05 data from three different processing centers (CSR, GFZ, JPL) that we convert into estimates of hydrological PM excitation, χ1H and χ2H. In addition to these gravimetric excitations, we also consider geodetic hydrological excitations, which we calculate by removing modelled atmospheric and oceanic effects from precise observations of full PM excitations. We remove signals with frequencies ≥1cpy from the series and compare the resulting estimates of interannual hydrological excitations for the period 2004.5–2014.5. The comparison between geodetic and gravimetric excitations reveals some discrepancies for χ1H, likely to be related to inadequately modelled atmospheric and oceanic effects. On the other hand, good agreement is observed for χ2H. For both components, the best agreement between geodetic and gravimetric excitations is obtained for the estimate from CSR. Very good agreement is obtained between GRACE-derived excitations from different processing centers, in particular for CSR and JPL. Both the comparisons between geodetic and gravimetric, and the comparisons between the different gravimetric excitations give substantially better results for χ2H than for χ1H, leading to the conclusion that geodetic and gravimetric χ2H can be more reliably determined than χ1H. Although there are still some discrepancies between geodetic and gravimetric interannual hydrological excitations, we conclude that GRACE and potential follow-on missions are valuable tools to study the interannual effects of continental hydrology on the excitation of PM.

Improved simulation of tropospheric ozone by a global-multi-regional two-way coupling model system

Abstract. Small-scale nonlinear chemical and physical processes over pollution source regions affect the tropospheric ozone (O3), but these processes are not captured by current global chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry–climate models that are limited by coarse horizontal resolutions (100–500 km, typically 200 km). These models tend to contain large (and mostly positive) tropospheric O3 biases in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we use the recently built two-way coupling system of the GEOS-Chem CTM to simulate the regional and global tropospheric O3 in 2009. The system couples the global model (at 2.5° long. × 2° lat.) and its three nested models (at 0.667° long. × 0.5° lat.) covering Asia, North America and Europe, respectively. Specifically, the nested models take lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) from the global model, better capture small-scale processes and feed back to modify the global model simulation within the nested domains, with a subsequent effect on their LBCs. Compared to the global model alone, the two-way coupled system better simulates the tropospheric O3 both within and outside the nested domains, as found by evaluation against a suite of ground (1420 sites from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division (GMD), the Chemical Coordination Centre of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP), and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System (AQS)), aircraft (the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) and Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In- Service Aircraft (MOZAIC)) and satellite measurements (two Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products). The two-way coupled simulation enhances the correlation in day-to-day variation of afternoon mean surface O3 with the ground measurements from 0.53 to 0.68, and it reduces the mean model bias from 10.8 to 6.7 ppb. Regionally, the coupled system reduces the bias by 4.6 ppb over Europe, 3.9 ppb over North America and 3.1 ppb over other regions. The two-way coupling brings O3 vertical profiles much closer to the HIPPO (for remote areas) and MOZAIC (for polluted regions) data, reducing the tropospheric (0–9 km) mean bias by 3–10 ppb at most MOZAIC sites and by 5.3 ppb for HIPPO profiles. The two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric column ozone by 3.0 DU (9.5 %, annual mean), bringing them closer to the OMI data in all seasons. Additionally, the two-way coupled simulation also reduces the global tropospheric mean hydroxyl radical by 5 % with improved estimates of methyl chloroform and methane lifetimes. Simulation improvements are more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, and are mainly driven by improved representation of spatial inhomogeneity in chemistry/emissions. Within the nested domains, the two-way coupled simulation reduces surface ozone biases relative to typical GEOS-Chem one-way nested simulations, due to much improved LBCs. The bias reduction is 1–7 times the bias reduction from the global to the one-way nested simulation. Improving model representations of small-scale processes is important for understanding the global and regional tropospheric chemistry.

Empirical assessment of the validity limits of the surface wave full ray theory using realistic 3-D Earth models

The surface wave full ray theory (FRT) is an efficient tool to calculate synthetic waveforms of surface waves. It combines the concept of local modes with exact ray tracing as a function of frequency, providing a more complete description of surface wave propagation than the widely used great circle approximation (GCA). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of the FRT approach to model teleseismic long-period surface waveforms (T ∼ 45–150 s) in the context of current 3-D Earth models to empirically assess its validity domain and its scope for future studies in seismic tomography. To achieve this goal, we compute vertical and horizontal component fundamental mode synthetic Rayleigh waveforms using the FRT, which are compared with calculations using the highly accurate spectral element method. We use 13 global earth models including 3-D crustal and mantle structure, which are derived by successively varying the strength and lengthscale of heterogeneity in current tomographic models. For completeness, GCA waveforms are also compared with the spectral element method. We find that the FRT accurately predicts the phase and amplitude of long-period Rayleigh waves (T ∼ 45–150 s) for almost all the models considered, with errors in the modelling of the phase (amplitude) of Rayleigh waves being smaller than 5 per cent (10 per cent) in most cases. The largest errors in phase and amplitude are observed for T ∼ 45 s and for the three roughest earth models considered that exhibit shear wave anomalies of up to ∼20 per cent, which is much larger than in current global tomographic models. In addition, we find that overall the GCA does not predict Rayleigh wave amplitudes well, except for the longest wave periods (T ∼ 150 s) and the smoothest models considered. Although the GCA accurately predicts Rayleigh wave phase for current earth models such as S20RTS and S40RTS, FRT's phase errors are smaller, notably for the shortest wave periods considered (T ∼ 45 s and T ∼ 60 s). This suggests that the FRT approach is a useful means to build the next generation of elastic and anelastic surface wave tomography models. Finally, we observe a clear correlation between the FRT amplitude and phase errors and the roughness of the models. This allows us to quantify the limits of validity of the FRT in terms of model roughness thresholds, which can serve as useful guides in future seismic tomographic studies.

Remote diagnostic of the hydrogen wall through measurements of the backscattered solar Lyman alpha radiation by Voyager 1/UVS in 1993–2003

AbstractWe perform a new analysis of the Lyman alpha data obtained by Voyager 1 during the spatial scans in 1993–2003 while Voyager 1 was at 53–88 AU from the Sun. These data are the important source of information on the hydrogen distribution in the outer heliosphere. A sophisticated global kinetic‐MHD model of the heliospheric interface and a radiative transfer model are used for the analysis. It is shown for the first time that the ratio of the Lyman alpha intensities detected in the downwind and upwind lines of sight in the outer heliosphere is sensitive to the configuration (peak value and location) of the hydrogen wall. The hydrogen wall is a source of Doppler‐shifted backscattered Lyman alpha photons, so it can be seen from inside the heliosphere. Therefore, Voyager 1/ultraviolet spectrometer (UVS) Lyman alpha data can be used for remote sensing of the hydrogen wall. We show that our current global model of the outer heliosphere, which is consistent with many other measurements including Lyman alpha data from both Voyager 1 and 2 in 1980–1993, provides a systematically larger downwind to upwind intensity ratio compared with the UVS data in 1993–2003. In order to decrease the ratio, a higher and/or closer hydrogen wall is needed.

A new degree-2190 (10 km resolution) gravity field model for Antarctica developed from GRACE, GOCE and Bedmap2 data

The current high-degree global geopotential models EGM2008 and EIGEN-6C4 resolve gravity field structures to $$\sim $$ 10 km spatial scales over most parts of the of Earth’s surface. However, a notable exception is continental Antarctica, where the gravity information in these and other recent models is based on satellite gravimetry observations only, and thus limited to about $$\sim $$ 80–120 km spatial scales. Here, we present a new degree-2190 global gravity model (GGM) that for the first time improves the spatial resolution of the gravity field over the whole of continental Antarctica to $$\sim $$ 10 km spatial scales. The new model called SatGravRET2014 is a combination of recent Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite gravimetry with gravitational signals derived from the 2013 Bedmap2 topography/ice thickness/bedrock model with gravity forward modelling in ellipsoidal approximation. Bedmap2 is a significantly improved description of the topographic mass distribution over the Antarctic region based on a multitude of topographic surveys, and a well-suited source for modelling short-scale gravity signals as we show in our study. We describe the development of SatGravRET2014 which entirely relies on spherical harmonic modelling techniques. Details are provided on the least-squares combination procedures and on the conversion of topography to implied gravitational potential. The main outcome of our work is the SatGravRET2014 spherical harmonic series expansion to degree 2190, and derived high-resolution grids of 3D-synthesized gravity and quasigeoid effects over the whole of Antarctica. For validation, six data sets from the IAG Subcommission 2.4f “Gravity and Geoid in Antarctica” (AntGG) database were used comprising a total of 1,092,981 airborne gravimetric observations. All subsets consistently show that the Bedmap2-based short-scale gravity modelling improves the agreement over satellite-only data considerably (improvement rates ranging between 9 and 75 % with standard deviations from residuals between SatGravRET2014 and AntGG gravity ranging between 8 and 25 mGal). For comparison purposes, a degree-2190 GGM was generated based on the year-2001 Bedmap1 (using the ETOPO1 topography) instead of 2013 Bedmap2 topography product. Comparison of both GGMs against AntGG consistently reveals a closer fit over all test areas when Bedmap2 is used. This experiment provides evidence for clear improvements in Bedmap2 topographic information over Bedmap1 at spatial scales of $$\sim $$ 80–10 km, obtained from independent gravity data used as validation tool. As a general conclusion, our modelling effort fills—in approximation—some gaps in short-scale gravity knowledge over Antarctica and demonstrates the value of the Bedmap2 topography data for short-scale gravity refinement in GGMs. SatGravRET2014 can be used, e.g. as a reference model for future gravity modelling efforts over Antarctica, e.g. as foundation for a combination with the AntGG data set to obtain further improved gravity information.

Total dust deposition flux during precipitation in Toyama, Japan, in the spring of 2009: A sensitivity analysis with the NASA GEOS-5 Model

We compared the observed total dust deposition fluxes during precipitation (TDP) mainly at Toyama in Japan during the period January–April 2009 with results available from four NASA GEOS-5 global model experiments. The modeled results were obtained from three previous experiments and carried out in one experiment, which were all driven by assimilated meteorology and simulating aerosol distributions for the time period. We focus mainly on the observations of two distinct TDP events, which were reported in Osada et al. (2011), at Toyama, Japan, in February (Event B) and March 2009 (Event C). Although all of our GEOS-5 simulations captured aspects of the observed TDP, we found that our low horizontal spatial resolution control experiment performed generally the worst. The other three experiments were run at a higher spatial resolution, with the first differing only in that respect from the control, the second adding imposed a prescribed corrected precipitation product, and the final experiment adding as well assimilation of aerosol optical depth based on MODIS observations. During Event C, the increased horizontal resolution could increase TDP with precipitation increase. There was no significant improvement, however, due to the imposition of the corrected precipitation product. The simulation that incorporated aerosol data assimilation performed was by far the best for this event, but even so could only reproduce less than half of the observed TDP despite the significantly increased atmospheric dust mass concentrations. All three of the high spatial resolution experiments had higher simulated precipitation at Toyama than was observed and that in the lower resolution control run. During Event B, the aerosol data assimilation run did not perform appreciably better than the other higher resolution simulations, suggesting that upstream conditions (i.e., upstream cloudiness), or vertical or horizontal misplacement of the dust plume did not allow for significant improvement in the simulated aerosol distributions. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of observed hourly precipitation and surface particulate mass concentration data suggests that the observed TDP during Event B was highly dependent on short periods of weak precipitation correlated with elevated dust surface concentrations, important details possibly not captured well in a current global model.

A MODEL OF THE HELIOSPHERE WITH JETS

An analytic model of the heliosheath (HS) between the termination shock (TS) and the heliopause (HP) is developed in the limit in which the interstellar flow and magnetic field are neglected. The heliosphere in this limit is axisymmetric and the overall structure of the HS and HP are controlled by the solar magnetic field even in the limit in which the ratio of the plasma to magnetic field pressure, $\beta=8\pi P/B^2$, in the HS is large. The tension of the solar magnetic field produces a drop in the total pressure between the TS and the HP. This same pressure drop accelerates the plasma flow downstream of the TS into the North and South directions to form two collimated jets. The radii of these jets are controlled by the flow through the TS and the acceleration of this flow by the magnetic field -- a stronger solar magnetic field boosts the velocity of the jets and reduces the radii of the jets and the HP. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the global helioshere embedded in a stationary interstellar medium match well with the analytic model. The results suggest that mechanisms that reduce the HS plasma pressure downstream of the TS can enhance the jet outflow velocity and reduce the HP radius to values more consistent with the Voyager 1 observations than in current global models.

Healthy Business Environment According to the General Theory of Sustainable Development

The article continues thinking about prospective of human society. Is the healthy business environment a fiction or a real opportunity? How far-reaching are the roots of the future natural processes of changes? How to work with the current global economic models? Can the current European integration process be considered as natural? Is a weak state a new opportunity for a future strong economy? What is the historical essence of the liberal thought? Why the current economic models are not permanent, why are they not sustainable, and why are they not developing for the basic quantum, which is the man as an individual? Can also the basic quantum be integration units as family, society, company, municipality, region, country, or EU, etc.? Qualified answers to the questions can be seen in a theoretical context of the General Theory of the Sustainable Development (GTSD), too. Theoretical trinity of GTSD is based on three theoretical pillars: GPT (Gravitation Polarity Theory), QET (Quantum Economy Theory), and BIT (Big Integration Theory). They can be considered as relevant theoretical basics for historical, current, and future sustainable development process. The healthy business environment is based on the healing of man. In GTSD, businessman and man gain a new source of knowledge, a new natural relationship, and a new content. This is a responsibility towards the customer and towards the partner in business. Businessman’s profit speaks about a new business in natural partnerships. Sustainable development without the Groove Management (second generation management) and without the fourth Reformation (with second generation of innovation) is a process that only reflects the regressive trend that takes place for more than 6000 years. Without the new content of the Fifth Theoretical Dimension (Consciousness) the historical mainstream of sustainable development process cannot be grasped. The biggest risk for the expected Healthy business society is a contemporary slave communism and contemporary crazy capitalism. Feasibility of business models of healthy business doing societies stands not only on adequate theoretical basis, but also on predicted cannibalism between slave communism and crazy capitalism. The biggest current risk of healthy business environment is a political arbitrariness, the desire for power, and the desire for money—corruption.

Importancia de la necesidad de la coerción mutua en la globalización o la descivilización progresiva

La falta de inclusión dentro del actual modelo de crecimiento económico global adoptado por la mayoría de países del mundo, se evidencia por la creciente brecha que se está generando entre ricos y pobres, este modelo económico capitalistaliberal, que privilegia al mercado sobre todas las cosas, alienta la lucha por una mayor competencia y la realización de transacciones financieras especulativas de mayores rendimientos desalentando producir bienes o brindar servicios que son esenciales para la vida, donde el capitalismo se ha convertido en una plutocracia, es decir, en una oligarquía donde se concentran grandes cantidades de dinero que además ostentan el poder político mundial. Según instituciones e investigadores de reconocido prestigio, indican que hay una desmedida ambición del 1% de la población mundial que no tiene reparos en condenar a la pobreza al 99% restante; indican que las 225 personas más ricas del mundo tienen un patrimonio que sumado superan el ingreso anual del 47% más pobre de la población, es decir cuentan con un ingreso equivalente a los ingresos de 2,500 millones de habitantes. Establecen que la máxima concentración de dinero se da en el capital financiero, específicamente en el sistema bancario global, el cual posee 60 veces más dinero que los propietarios del resto de negocios, fábricas, industrias de bienes y de otros tipos de servicios. Sin embargo hay que reconocer también que según información confiable, la pobreza actualmente no llega al 13% de la población mundial, cuando hace tan solo 140 años esta llegaba al 85%, lo cual podría estarnos indicando, que el aumento de las brechas mencionadas, es una preocupación exagerada. La liberalización económica ha permitido que nuestro país crezca a tasas líderes en forma sostenida en los últimos 10 años y que además, entre inicios de los 80 y mediados de la primera década de este siglo, China ha logrado sacar a más de 500 millones de personas de la pobreza y que India, el segundo país más poblado del mundo, reduzca su porcentaje de pobreza a la mitad. Otros indican que la causa de esta creciente brecha entre ricos y pobres es el desarrollo tecnológico el cual está ganando la carrera frente al capital humano y las habilidades organizacionales. Esta situación de distanciamiento entre ricos y pobres es insostenible en el tiempo, porque generan problemas de gobernabilidad. Si consideramos que el poder es la capacidad de controlar recursos, en consecuencia son los ricos quienes concentran el poder político mundial, lo que ha motivado y seguirán produciendo protestas y movimientos como de los “indignados” , “la primavera árabe” en el mundo, que quieren revertir estas grandes desigualdades e inequidades. La desigualdad en los ingresos y su consecuente creciente brecha entre ricos y pobres es motivo de preocupación y de diversos estudios de investigación para identificar un correcto diagnóstico y acertar en sus soluciones, dado que son muchas las variables monetarias y no monetarias cuya interrelación de efectos globales es muy difícil de analizar. Es por este motivo que en este artículo se revisan algunos aspectos históricos considerados relevantes en el actual contexto global, como la importancia del Banco Central Norteamericano, la existencia del dinero fiduciario, la China de hoy y su roll en la antigua confrontación ideológica entre el MERCADO y LA PLA NIFICACIÓN CENTRAL, la actual y progresiva desregulación bancaria del país central, la receta de la doctrina económica del Consenso de Washington, los desbalances globales, la inflación y las burbujas financieras, que explicarían las actuales consecuencias y situación del sistema monetario y financiero global en la que nos encontramos involucrados todos, planteándose algunas alternativas de solución, en sus efectos sobre la economía real y el bienestar social, como la necesidad de una mayor toma de conciencia colectiva global sobre la economía del bien común, a través de la necesidad de la coerción mutua a fin de lograr socializar adecuadamente los egoísmos, evitando una descivilización.

Skill in forecasting extreme ozone pollution episodes with a global atmospheric chemistry model

Abstract. From the ensemble of stations that monitor surface air quality over the United States and Europe, we identify extreme ozone pollution events and find that they occur predominantly in clustered, multiday episodes with spatial extents of more than 1000 km. Such scales are amenable to forecasting with current global atmospheric chemistry models. We develop an objective mapping algorithm that uses the heterogeneous observations of the individual surface sites to calculate surface ozone averaged over 1° by 1° grid cells, matching the resolution of a global model. Air quality extreme (AQX) events are identified locally as statistical extremes of the ozone climatology and not as air quality exceedances. With the University of California, Irvine chemistry-transport model (UCI CTM) we find there is skill in hindcasting these extreme episodes, and thus identify a new diagnostic using global chemistry–climate models (CCMs) to identify changes in the characteristics of extreme pollution episodes in a warming climate.

Evaluation of the convection-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations

The uncertainties in current global and regional climate model integrations are partly related to the representation of clouds, moist convection, and complex topography, thus motivating the use of convection-resolving models. On climate time scales, convection-resolving methods have been used for process studies, but application to long-term scenario simulations has been very limited. Here we present a convection-resolving simulation for a 10 yearlong period (1998–2007) integrated with the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling in Climate Mode model. Two one-way nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 2.2 km for a convection-resolving model (CRM2) on an extended Alpine domain (1100 km × 1100 km) and 12 km for a convection-parametrizing model (CPM12) covering Europe. CPM12 is driven by lateral boundary conditions from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Validation is conducted against high-resolution surface data. The CRM2 model strongly improves the simulation of the diurnal cycles of precipitation and temperature, despite an enhanced warm bias and a tendency for the overestimation of precipitation over the Alps. The CPM12 model has a poor diurnal cycle associated with the use of parameterized convection. The assessment of extreme precipitation events reveals that both models adequately represent the frequency-intensity distributions for daylong events in summer, but large differences occur for hourly precipitation. The CPM12 model underestimates the frequency of heavy hourly events, while CRM2 shows good agreement with observations in the summer season. We also present results on the scaling of precipitation extremes with local daily mean temperatures. In accordance with observations, CRM2 exhibits adiabatic scaling for intermediate hourly events (90th percentile) and superadiabatic scaling for extreme hourly events (99th and 99.9th percentiles) during the summer season. The CPM12 model partly reproduces this scaling as well. The excellent performance of CRM2 in representing hourly precipitation events in terms of intensity and scaling is highly encouraging, as this addresses a previously untested (and untuned) model capability.

New method to estimate variability in groundwater volumes

As the warming climate and increasing population put stress on the world's water supply, it has become increasingly important to have a global understanding of how groundwater volumes vary from season to season and from year to year. Current global hydrological models do not include lateral groundwater flow, which plays a significant role in providing water to plants and in recharging lakes, rivers, and streams.