Current Carbon Stocks Research Articles

Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation

Abstract. Natural disturbances like windthrows or forest fires alter the provision of forest ecosystem services such as timber production, protection from natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. After a disturbance, forests release large amounts of carbon and therefore change their status from carbon sinks to carbon sources for some time. Climate-smart forest management may decrease forest vulnerability to disturbances and thus reduce carbon emissions as a consequence of future disturbances. But how can we prioritise the stands most in need of climate-smart management? In this study we adopted a risk mapping framework (hazard times vulnerability) to assess the risk to climate-related forest ecosystem services (carbon stock and sink) in forests prone to windthrow (in the Julian Alps, Italy) and forest fires (in the Apennines, Italy). We calculated hazard by using forest fire and windthrow simulation tools and examined the most important drivers of the respective hazards. We then assessed vulnerability by calculating current carbon stocks and sinks in each forest stand. We combined these values together with the calculated hazard to estimate “carbon risk” and prioritised high-risk stands for climate-smart management. Our findings demonstrate that combining disturbance simulation tools and forest carbon measurements may aid in risk-related decision-making in forests and in planning decisions for climate-smart forestry. This approach may be replicated in other mountain forests to enhance our understanding of their actual carbon vulnerability to forest disturbances.

Sapling recruitment as an indicator of carbon resiliency in forests of the northern USA.

Tree regeneration shapes forest carbon dynamics by determining long-term forest composition and structure, which suggests that threats to natural regeneration may diminish the capacity of forests to replace live tree carbon transferred to the atmosphere or other pools through tree mortality. Yet, the potential implications of tree regeneration patterns for future carbon dynamics have been sparsely studied. We used forest inventory plots to investigate whether the composition of existing tree regeneration is consistent with aboveground carbon stock loss, replacement, or gain for forests across the northeastern and midwestern USA, leveraging a recently developed method to predict the likelihood of sapling recruitment from seedling abundance tallied within six seedling height classes. A comparison of carbon stock predictions from tree and seedling composition suggested that 29% of plots were poised to lose carbon based on seedling composition, 55% were poised for replacement of carbon stocks (<5 Mg ha-1 difference) and 16% were poised to gain carbon. Forests predicted to lose carbon tended to be on steeper slopes, at lower latitudes, and in rolling upland environments. Although plots predicted to gain and lose carbon had similar stand ages, carbon loss plots had greater current carbon stocks. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the utility of considering tree regeneration through the lens of carbon replacement to develop effective management strategies to secure long-term carbon storage and resilience in the context of global change. Forests poised to lose C due to climate change and other stressors could be prioritized for regeneration strategies that enhance long-term carbon resilience and stewardship.

The centennial legacy of land-use change on organic carbon stocks of German agricultural soils.

Converting natural vegetation for agriculture has resulted in the loss of approximately 5% of the current global terrestrial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock to the atmosphere. Increasing the agricultural area under grassland may reverse some of these losses, but the effectiveness of such a strategy is limited by how quickly SOC recovers after conversion from cropland. Using soil data and extensive land-use histories gathered during the national German agricultural soil inventory, this study aims to answer three questions regarding agricultural land-use change (LUC): (i) how do SOC stocks change with depth following LUC; (ii) how long does it take to reach SOC equilibrium after LUC; and (iii) what is the legacy effect of historic LUC on present day SOC dynamics? By using a novel approach that substitutes space for time and accounts for differences in site properties using propensity score balancing, we determined that sites that were converted from cropland to grassland reached a SOC equilibrium level 47.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 43.4% to 49.5%) above permanent cropland levels 83 years (95% CI: 79 to 90 years) after conversion. Meanwhile, sites converted from grassland to cropland reached a SOC equilibrium level -33.6% (95% CI: -34.1% to -33.5%) below permanent grassland levels after 180 years (95% CI: 151 to 223 years). We estimate that, over the past century, today's German agricultural soils (16.6 million ha) have gained about 40 million Mg C. Furthermore, croplands with historic LUC from grassland are losing SOC by -0.26 Mg ha-1 year-1 (10% of agricultural land) while grasslands historically converted from cropland are gaining SOC by 0.27 Mg ha-1 year-1 (18% of agricultural land). This study shows that even long-standing temperate agricultural sites likely have ongoing SOC change as a result of historical LUC.

New Zealand's planted forests–Carbon stocks and yield in fast growing exotic tree plantations of the Southern Hemisphere

Every year New Zealand measures 1/5th of the permanent sample plots of the National Planted Forest Inventory administered by the Ministry for the Environment (MFE). This means that all plots are measured once during a five-year cycle to provide the full inventory, while each measurement year in its own right provides a random nationally-representative sample of New Zealand's plantation forests.Land-use change and planted forest area are highly dynamic in New Zealand compared to forests in many northern hemisphere countries and every year new plots are added to the inventory due to new afforestation areas. Over time, old plot data representing stands that have been recently harvested will be replaced with measurements of the new forests growing on these sites or will drop out altogether due to improvements in mapping or deforestation. This means that estimates from a single year's plot measurements can give different results from the previous year due to the changes that the plantation forest estate experiences from year to year.In this paper we analyse results for the latest measurement cycle (Panels 2016 - 2020) and identify any issues or trends in carbon stocks. We use all panel data plus data from previous periodic forest inventories to generate a fully representative yield table for all plantation forests in the sub-categories of Kyoto Protocol-compliant afforestation and other planted forests (“non-Kyoto”). Furthermore, we use an imputation approach to provide a statistically accurate representation of stock changes over time. The yield tables generated are used in MFE's Land Use Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) to generate estimates of carbon stocks and stock changes for international reporting.The estimated mean carbon sequestration rate over the typical rotation for New Zealand's dominant plantation species is higher than the default range provided by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Predicted carbon sequestration in non-Kyoto planted forests (10.5 tC ha−1 yr−1) exceeds the estimated carbon sequestration in Kyoto-compliant planted forests (9.8 tC ha−1 yr−1) with both at the upper range of estimates for temperate plantation forests (IPCC). Current mean carbon stocks are significantly larger in Kyoto-compliant plantation forests (169 tC ha−1) than in non-Kyoto planted forests (108 tC ha−1) across New Zealand, largely because they are on average five years older. Estimated Mean annual increment, m3 ha−1 yr−1 expressed as a comparable index (“300Index”) indicates that Kyoto-compliant forest land has slightly higher productivity than non-Kyoto planted forests, but because the latter are composed of younger stands, greater carbon sequestration rates but lower current stocks are estimated. Plots with slower growing tree species such as Douglas-fir, cypresses and coastal redwood are now an increasing part of the Kyoto-compliant estate, reducing the overall sequestration rates for this forest type.

Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions

Carbon sequestration in grasslands has been proposed as an important means to offset greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant systems. To understand the potential and limitations of this strategy, we need to acknowledge that soil carbon sequestration is a time-limited benefit, and there are intrinsic differences between short- and long-lived greenhouse gases. Here, our analysis shows that one tonne of carbon sequestrated can offset radiative forcing of a continuous emission of 0.99 kg methane or 0.1 kg nitrous oxide per year over 100 years. About 135 gigatonnes of carbon is required to offset the continuous methane and nitrous oxide emissions from ruminant sector worldwide, nearly twice the current global carbon stock in managed grasslands. For various regions, grassland carbon stocks would need to increase by approximately 25% − 2,000%, indicating that solely relying on carbon sequestration in grasslands to offset warming effect of emissions from current ruminant systems is not feasible.

The role of social forestry in achieving NDC targets: Study cases of Lampung and DI Yogyakarta

Social Forestry (SF) in Indonesia has emerged as a keystone strategy for Sustainable Forest Management. By allocating 12.7 million ha of forest to be managed by local communities, the government has set in motion an ambitious plan for SF to reduce poverty, empower local people, and improve forest conditions. More recently, SF is framed for its opportunity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study focused on examining the contribution of SF to the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals in Yogyakarta and Lampung. By analyzing spatial data of SF areas and land cover changes using ArcView 10.8, the study assessed the carbon stock potential in SF areas. Carbon stock calculations were based on the 2022 National Forest Reference Level (FRL) for the periods before and after SF implementation. The finding of the study indicated that the carbon stock of SF areas in Yogyakarta and Lampung ranged from 9,214,381 to 9,923,420 ton CO2eq prior to SF, while the current carbon stock ranges from 8,703,489 to 9,393,706 ton CO2eq, representing a decrease (around 5.4%) rather than an increase. Overall, the changes in carbon stock were relatively small and localized, and the magnitude of the increase was insufficient to offset the overall decrease. To achieve the objectives of SF, such as meeting emission targets and achieving sustainable land use, it is crucial to carefully manage forest edges and fragmented forests, as they can contribute to carbon stock losses. Additionally, further studies and research are needed to improve the accuracy of carbon stock calculations, particularly for non-forest categories, which have higher uncertainty in the reference levels

Impacts of climate change on pine wilt disease outbreaks and associated carbon stock losses

Pine wilt disease (PWD) is a significant threat to forests worldwide. Large-scale PWD outbreaks in China underline the need to understand the current and future distributions of PWD. We constructed a principal components analysis (PCA)-based environmental filter method in a three dimensional (3D) space to correct the sample bias caused by the strong autocorrelation of PWD outbreaks. The MaxEnt model was used to estimate the relationships between PWD occurrence and environmental characteristics and to predict potential PWD risk areas under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) over the period 2020–2100. The model showed improved performance by correcting the sampling bias, with high accuracy (area under the curve values of 0.87 and 0.92 for model training and testing, respectively). Isothermality and annual precipitation contributed most strongly to the distribution of PWD. The potential PWD distribution will increase in the near future (2021–2040) and will expand northward in 2061–2100 under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. This study also provides detailed maps of current and future carbon stock losses caused by PWD, which show the current maximum losses (∼24.9% of total forest carbon stocks) and an increase of ∼39,000 km2 in carbon stock losses in the northeast China for the period 2061–2100 under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. Overall, our results show dramatic spatiotemporal shifts in the PWD distribution and forest carbon stock losses under climate change scenarios, and will provide a useful reference for implementing pest control techniques and forest management strategies.

Estimating Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forest and Its Influencing Factors at Fine Spatial-Scales: A Case Study of Lushan City in Southern China.

Accurate prediction of forest carbon sequestration potential requires a comprehensive understanding of tree growth relationships. However, the studies for estimating carbon sequestration potential concerning tree growth relationships at fine spatial-scales have been limited. In this paper, we assessed the current carbon stock and predicted sequestration potential of Lushan City, where a region has rich vegetation types in southern China, by introducing parameters of diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height in the method of coupling biomass expansion factor (BEF) and tree growth equation. The partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to explore the role of combined condition factors (e.g., site, stand, climate) on carbon sequestration potential. The results showed that (1) in 2019, the total carbon stock of trees in Lushan City was 9.22 × 105 t, and the overall spatial distribution exhibited a decreasing tendency from northwest to south-central, and the carbon density increased with elevation; (2) By 2070, the carbon density of forest in Lushan City will reach a relatively stable state, and the carbon stock will continue to rise to 2.15 × 106 t, which is 2.33 times of the current level, indicating that Lushan forest will continue to serve as a carbon sink for the next fifty years; (3) Excluding the effect of tree growth, regional forest carbon sequestration potential was significantly influenced on site characteristics, which achieved the highest Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) value (2.19) for slope direction. Our study provided a better understanding of the relationships between forest growth and carbon sequestration potential at fine spatial-scales. The results regarding the condition factors and how their combination characteristics affect the potential for carbon sequestration could provide crucial insights for Chinese carbon policy and global carbon neutrality goals.

Size‐dependent intraspecific variation in wood traits has little impact on aboveground carbon estimates in a tropical forest landscape

Abstract There is increasing evidence that intraspecific trait variation plays a role in governing rates of ecosystem functioning. While wood traits such as wood specific gravity (WSG) and wood carbon concentration (WCC) are key drivers of forest aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks, the sources of intraspecific variation in these wood traits and the consequences of this variation on AGC are poorly known, especially in the tropics. Here, we investigated intraspecific variation in wood specific gravity (WSG) and wood carbon concentration (WCC) from 556 individual trees belonging to 15 species that well characterize different successional stages of seasonal evergreen forests in Southeast Asia. Specifically, we tested the contribution of individual or species characteristics (tree size, growth rate and regeneration guilds) and local environmental conditions (topographic wetness index and successional stages) to intraspecific variation in WSG and WCC, and assessed the consequences of intraspecific variation in these wood traits on AGC estimates in 14 permanent forest plots established along a successional gradient in Khao Yai National park, Thailand. We found that tree size was the main driver of intraspecific variation in WSG and WCC as tree sizes increased from 10–100 cm in diameter, WSG increased by 7.3%, while WCC increased by 2.4% in heartwood, 1.6% and 2.7% in sapwood without and with volatile carbon included. There was no effect of the topographic wetness and other local environment condition in wood traits led to a slight overestimation of AGC in young secondary forests (+0.09% to +1.29%) and a small underestimation in older forests (−0.86% to −2.87%), but overall AGC estimates (13 of 14 forest plots) remained within error margins (the 95% interval). Our study provides evidence that tree size variation translates into intraspecific variability in wood traits, whereas local environmental conditions related to topography successional stages had no effect on wood trait variability. While size‐dependent variation in WSG and WCC have largely been undocumented and thus ignored in forest carbon assessment approaches, we highlight that it has a limited impact on AGC estimates, indicating that it does not invalidate current forest carbon stock estimation approaches. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Anthropogenic impacts on lowland tropical peatland biogeochemistry

Tropical peatlands store around one-sixth of the global peatland carbon pool (105 gigatonnes), equivalent to 30% of the carbon held in rainforest vegetation. Deforestation, drainage, fire and conversion to agricultural land threaten these ecosystems and their role in carbon sequestration. In this Review, we discuss the biogeochemistry of tropical peatlands and the impacts of ongoing anthropogenic modifications. Extensive peatlands are found in Southeast Asia, the Congo Basin and Amazonia, but their total global area remains unknown owing to inadequate data. Anthropogenic transformations result in high carbon loss and reduced carbon storage, increased greenhouse gas emissions, loss of hydrological integrity and peat subsidence accompanied by an enhanced risk of flooding. Moreover, the resulting nutrient storage and cycling changes necessitate fertilizer inputs to sustain crop production, further disturbing the ecosystem and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Under a warming climate, these impacts are likely to intensify, with both disturbed and intact peat swamps at risk of losing 20% of current carbon stocks by 2100. Improved measurement and observation of carbon pools and fluxes, along with process-based biogeochemical knowledge, is needed to support management strategies, protect tropical peatland carbon stocks and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Tropical peatlands hold around 105 gigatonnes of carbon but are increasingly affected by anthropogenic activities. This Review describes the biogeochemistry of these systems and how deforestation, fire, drainage and agriculture are disturbing them.

Current and future carbon stocks of natural forests in China

Natural regeneration of forests is the most cost-effective and most technically straightforward strategy to mitigate climate change. Natural forests account for 71% of China’s forested area, but their carbon stocks and sequestration potentials remain unclear. Here, we compiled data from 762 natural forest sites across China and found that natural forests had a carbon stock of 9.40 ± 1.45 Pg C in 2010. When naturally regenerated to the over-mature stage, existing natural forests can additionally sequestrate 8.67 ± 6.93 Pg C in the next two centuries, accounting for 48% of the carbon carrying capacity of the natural forest ecosystem in China, i.e. 18.07 ± 6.78 Pg C. Future carbon sequestration potential in natural forests is dominated by the tree layer at 6.88 ± 6.87 Pg, followed by the shrub layer at 1.02 ± 0.55 Pg, floor layer at 0.72 ± 0.74 Pg and herb layer at 0.05 ± 0.10 Pg. The natural forests are expected to achieve 70% of their future carbon sequestration potential by 2100. We also note that assisted regeneration via tree planting can play a significant role in natural forest restoration, as the carbon densities of natural and planted forests are rarely significantly different at the same age under 60 years old. Therefore, the preservation and expansion of natural forests is the key strategy for achieving long-term carbon sequestration.

Quantifying past, current, and future forest carbon stocks within agroforestry systems in central Alberta, Canada

AbstractInformation about regional‐level carbon (C) stocks in agroforestry systems (AFS), as well as the annual loss of agroforests and associated C stocks, is scarce, limiting our capacity for increasing C sequestration through establishing, retaining, and enhancing these systems. This study quantified regional‐level C stocks and the associated incremental economic value in the forest land‐use component of three common AFS (hedgerows, shelterbelts, and silvopastures), estimated the annual loss of hedgerow and silvopasture forests and the associated C, and assessed the potential to enhance C storage through the expansion of shelterbelts in central Alberta, Canada, using publicly available satellite imagery, previously collected field data and the Google Earth Engine platform. Results showed that forests in the three AFS stored 699.9 million tons (Mt) C across 9.5 million hectares (Mha) of land in central Alberta and were valued at $102.7 billion based on the 2021 Canadian C tax rate of $40 t−1 CO2‐equivalent. Silvopasture forests in the studied region had the highest C stocks, which were 14.2 and 67.2 times that found in hedgerow and shelterbelt forests, respectively. Between 2001 and 2020, forests in hedgerows and silvopastures declined at rates of 468.1 and 1957.1 ha year−1, respectively, leading to an 8.4 Mt decline in total C storage over the 20 years. However, there is potential to establish new shelterbelts at many road/field margins, which could increase C stocks by 2.3 times the current C stocks in shelterbelt forests. These results highlight the importance of retaining existing and establishing new AFS for increasing C sequestration, emphasizing the impact of agroforest loss on reducing C storage within agroecosystems. The development of policies that assist or reward landowners for providing the ecosystem service of C storage by retaining, establishing, and enhancing agroforests as part of existing agroecosystem management should be encouraged for mitigating climate change.

What Is the Impact of Mass Timber Utilization on Climate and Forests?

As the need to address climate change grows more urgent, policymakers, businesses, and others are seeking innovative approaches to remove carbon dioxide emissions from the atmosphere and decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. Forests can play a role in reducing atmospheric carbon. However, there is disagreement over whether forests are most effective in reducing carbon emissions when left alone versus managed for sustainable harvesting and wood product production. Cross-laminated timber is at the forefront of the mass timber movement, which is enabling designers, engineers, and other stakeholders to build taller wood buildings. Several recent studies have shown that substituting mass timber for steel and concrete in mid-rise buildings can reduce the emissions associated with manufacturing, transporting, and installing building materials by 13%-26.5%. However, the prospect of increased utilization of wood products as a climate solution also raises questions about the impact of increased demand for wood on forest carbon stocks, on forest condition, and on the provision of the many other critical social and environmental benefits that healthy forests can provide. A holistic assessment of the total climate impact of forest product demand across product substitution, carbon storage in materials, current and future forest carbon stock, and forest area and condition is challenging, but it is important to understand the impact of increased mass timber utilization on forests and climate, and therefore also on which safeguards might be necessary to ensure positive outcomes. To thus assess the potential impacts, both positive and negative, of greater mass timber utilization on forests ecosystems and emissions associated with the built environment, The Nature Conservancy (TNC) initiated a global mass timber impact assessment (GMTIA), a five-part, highly collaborative research program focused on understanding the potential benefits and risks of increased demand for mass timber products on forests and identifying appropriate safeguards to ensure positive outcomes.

Below zero

Massive CO2 removals will be necessary to avoid climate tipping. Comparing removals with past, current and future carbon stocks and flows reveals the importance of avoiding fossil emissions completely and developing scalable technical solutions.

Strategic Forest Reserves can protect biodiversity in the western United States and mitigate climate change

Forest preservation is crucial for protecting biodiversity and mitigating climate change. Here we assess current forest preservation in the western United States using spatial data and find that beyond the 18.9% (17.5 Mha) currently protected, an additional 11.1% (10.3 Mha) is needed to achieve 30% preservation by 2030 (30 × 30). To help meet this regional preservation target, we developed a framework that prioritizes forestlands for preservation using spatial metrics of biodiversity and/or carbon within each ecoregion. We show that meeting this preservation target would lead to greater protection of animal and tree species habitat, current carbon stocks, future carbon accumulation, and forests that are important for surface drinking water. The highest priority forestlands are primarily owned by the federal government, though substantial areas are also owned by private entities and state and tribal governments. Establishing Strategic Forest Reserves would help protect biodiversity and carbon for climate adaptation and mitigation.

A framework for integrating the terrestrial carbon stock of estates in institutional carbon management plans

AbstractMany institutions have substantial landholdings, but few consider soil carbon preservation and augmentation in their carbon management plans. A methodical framework was developed to analyse terrestrial carbon stocks (soil and tree biomass) for credible carbon offsetting strategies in institutional land. This approach was demonstrated at two farms (805 hectares) managed by Newcastle University. Soil carbon for three depths (0–30 cm, 30–60 cm and 60–90 cm) and above‐ground tree biomass were quantified. These data provided a terrestrial carbon baseline to evaluate future land management options and effects. Historical land‐use records enabled the following comparisons: (1) agricultural land vs. woodland; (2) arable land vs. permanent grassland; (3) organic vs. conventional farming; (4) coniferous vs. broadleaved woodland; and (5) recent vs. long‐established woodland. Carbon storage (kg/m2) varied with land usage and woodland type and age, but only agricultural land vs. woodland, and for agriculture, arable land vs. permanent grassland, significantly affected the 0–90 cm soil carbon. At the university‐managed farms, current terrestrial carbon stocks were 103,620 tonnes in total (98,050 tonnes from the 0–90 cm soil and 5,569 tonnes from tree biomass). These terrestrial carbon stocks were equivalent to sixteen years of the current carbon emissions of Newcastle University (6,406 tonnes CO2 equivalents‐C per year). Using strategies for alternative land management, Newcastle University could over 40 years offset up to 3,221 tonnes of carbon per year, or 50% of its carbon emissions at the current rate. The methodological framework developed in this study will enable institutions having large landholdings to rationally consider their estates in future soil carbon management schemes.

Current and potential carbon stock in the forest communities of the Białowieża Biosphere Reserve

Specifying the upper bound of C storage in forest ecosystems allows an estimate of the amount of C that can be stored in the future. The Białowieża Forest in NE Poland is the last relic forest in the European lowlands. Still, it has been subject to various natural and human-induced disturbances and its C stock has been reduced. The main goal of our study was therefore to assess the current and potential C stock in the forest communities of the Białowieża Biosphere Reserve (597 km2), taking into account the diversity of habitats as well as different protection and management practices. For this we identified 13 forest communities and quantified their current C stock stored in all major pools (living trees, deadwood and soil). We used vegetation and soil data collected in 2018 at 1391 systematically distributed 0.04 ha forest plots (sampling grid 650 × 650 m). We used the concept of potential natural vegetation (PNV) and randomized upscaling of plot level current biomass C stock values to estimate the upper bounds of biomass C stocks possible to obtain at the stand level. We showed that the Białowieża Forest stores currently 300 Mg C ha−1 (17.2 Tg C), of which 41% is accumulated in biomass, with significant variation among different forest communities and management regimes. We obtained the upper bounds of biomass C stocks ranging from 94 Mg ha−1 for swamp pine forest to 223 Mg ha−1 for lime-oak-hornbeam forest. We estimated the gap between the current and potential C stock in biomass at 66 Mg ha−1 (3.8 Tg); 62% of the potential level is achieved in managed forests, and 76% in the National Park. Our findings may be used in planning forest management aimed toward long-term C storage, and the obtained upper bounds can serve as benchmarks in assessing C storage potential of similar forest types elsewhere. We also suggest that the potential of ecosystems to store C should be considered in the landscape context, i.e. by taking into account the spatial extent of PNV habitats and their unequal capacity to provide C storage service.

Historical and future carbon stocks in forests of northern Ontario, Canada

BackgroundForests in the Far North of Ontario (FNO), Canada, are likely the least studied in North America, and quantifying their current and future carbon (C) stocks is the first step in assessing their potential role in climate change mitigation. Although the FNO forests are unmanaged, the latter task is made more important by growing interest in developing the region’s natural resources, primarily for timber harvesting. In this study, we used a combination of field and remotely sensed observations with a land surface model to estimate forest C stocks in the FNO forests and to project their future dynamics. The specific objective was to simulate historical C stocks for 1901–2014 and future C stocks for 2015–2100 for five shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios selected as high priority scenarios for the 6th Assessment Report on Climate Change.ResultsCarbon stocks in live vegetation in the FNO forests remained relatively stable between 1901 and 2014 while soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks steadily declined, losing about 16% of their initial value. At the end of the historical simulation (in 2014), the stocks were estimated at 19.8, 46.4, and 66.2 tCha−1 in live vegetation, SOC, and total ecosystem pools, respectively. Projections for 2015–2100 indicated effectively no substantial change in SOC stocks, while live vegetation C stocks increased, accelerating their growth in the second half of the twenty-first century. These results were consistent among all simulated SSP scenarios. Consequently, increase in total forest ecosystem C stocks by 2100 ranged from 16.7 to 20.7% of their value in 2015. Simulations with and without wildfires showed the strong effect of fire on forest C stock dynamics during 2015–2100: inclusion of wildfires reduced the live vegetation increase by half while increasing the SOC pool due to higher turnover of vegetation C to SOC.ConclusionsForest ecosystem C stock estimates at the end of historical simulation period were at the lower end but within the range of values reported in the literature for northern boreal forests. These estimates may be treated as conservatively low since the area included in the estimates is poorly studied and some of the forests may be on peat deposits rather than mineral soils. Future C stocks were projected to increase in all simulated SSP scenarios, especially in the second half of the twenty-first century. Thus, during the projected period forest ecosystems of the FNO are likely to act as a C sink. In light of growing interest in developing natural resources in the FNO, collecting more data on the status and dynamics of its forests is needed to verify the above-presented estimates and design management activities that would maintain their projected C sink status.

The first national scale evaluation of organic carbon stocks and sequestration rates of coastal sediments along the West Sea, South Sea, and East Sea of South Korea

Blue carbon science requires the estimates of organic carbon stock and sequestration rate; however, holistic data analysis remains limited in South Korea. The present study reports current organic carbon stocks and sequestration rates in the coastal areas of West Sea, South Sea, and East Sea of South Korea, encompassing entire intertidal areas using long-term field survey combined with remote sensing technology. Twenty-one intertidal flats were targeted across seven provinces (Gyeonggi, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, Gyeongbuk, Gangwon). Out of the evaluated environmental parameters, mud content represented a significant factor controlling sedimentary organic carbon stocks across target areas, and was significantly positively correlated to the total organic carbon (p < 0.05). Organic carbon stocks measured in salt marshes (i.e., upper intertidal zone) reflected the high carbon fixation capacity of halophytes through primary production. Sediment textural type was classified using analysis of remotely sensed imagery, and was closely correlated to field-based classification data (p < 0.05). Using field and remote sensing results, we estimated total organic carbon stocks (13,142,149 Mg C) and sequestration rates (71,383 Mg C yr−1) in the tidal flats of South Korea. This study presents the first report on blue carbon potential in the Korean tidal flats, providing baseline information on the carbon dynamics of intertidal sediments in this region and, potentially, elsewhere.

Current aboveground live tree carbon stocks and annual net change in forests of conterminous United States

BackgroundWith the introduction of the Trillion Trees Initiative and similar programs, forests’ ability to absorb carbon dioxide is increasingly in the spotlight. Many states have mandates to develop climate action plans, of which forest carbon is an important component, and planners need current information on forest carbon stocks and rates of change at relevant spatial scales. To this end, we examine rates of average annual change in live aboveground tree carbon in different forest type groups and provide state-wide and regional summaries of current live tree carbon stock and rates of change for the forests of the conterminous United States. Forest carbon summaries are presented in a format designed to meet the needs of managers, policymakers, and others requiring current estimates of aboveground live tree carbon at state and regional scales.ResultsRegional average aboveground live tree carbon stocks (represented on a per area basis) are generally between 40 and 75 tC/ha but range from 12.8 tC/ha in the Great Plains to 130 tC/ha in the Pacific Northwest West (west-side of Cascades). Regional average annual change in live aboveground tree carbon varies from a low of − 0.18 mtC/ha/y in the Rocky Mountain South to a high value of 1.74 mtC/ha/y in Pacific Northwest West. For individual states, carbon per unit area varies widely, from a low of 11.9 tC/ha in Nevada to a high of 96.4 tC/ha in Washington, with half the states falling between 50 and 75 tC/ha. Rates of average annual change in live aboveground tree carbon vary from a high of 1.82 tC/ha/y in Mississippi to a low of − 0.47 tC/ha/y in Colorado.ConclusionsAboveground live tree carbon stocks and rates of average annual change vary by forest type within regions. While softwood forest types currently exhibit a higher rate of increase in the amount of carbon in aboveground live tree biomass, the current standing stock of carbon per unit area does not consistently follow this pattern. For this reason, we recommend computing and considering both measures -standing stock and average annual change—of carbon storage. The relative importance of each component will depend on management and policy objectives and the time frame related to those objectives. Harvesting and natural disturbance also affect forest carbon stock and change and may need to be considered if developing projections of potential carbon storage.