Current Account Data Research Articles

Demographic Situation in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics

Determining the exact population size of Donbass is a complex task due to the ongoing armed conflict in the region and a significant time interval that has passed since the last All-Ukrainian Population Census conducted in 2001. As of 2024, relevant and reliable sources of information on the demographic situation in Donbass are extremely limited. In turn, the statistical bodies of the people's republics are limited to counting the population exclusively in the territories controlled by Russia. These circumstances necessitate the use of alternative methodological approaches to obtain reliable estimates of the population of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. The article considers the demographic dynamics and problems of estimating the permanent population of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic (hereinafter referred to as the DPR and LPR), which are part of the Russian Federation. The relevance of the topic is due to the lack of reliable statistical data and the complexity of population accounting in the context of the ongoing conflict in the republics. The objective of the study is to analyze the available data on the population of the DPR and LPR and to assess the demographic situation in the region. The work uses official data from the statistical services of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, as well as materials from foreign statistical organizations. The results of the study show that since the beginning of the conflict in 2014, the population of the DPR and LPR has significantly decreased due to migration outflow and increased mortality. According to the authors' estimates, at the beginning of 2023, the permanent population of the Donetsk People's Republic was about 4.2 million people, and that of the Luhansk People's Republic was 2.2 million people. In addition, the article shows the population dynamics of the DPR and LPR from 1939 to 2020 based on all-Union population censuses and modern current accounting data. This scientific work emphasizes the need to conduct full-scale population censuses in the republics to obtain accurate information on its size and structure. The problem to which the article is devoted is not only of academic interest, but also has an obvious practical component. The study of the most probable number of the actual population of modern Donbass is directly related to the assessment of its systemic potential and the ability of two regional societies to achieve sustainable socio-economic development.

Robust Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in Emerging and Developing Countries

ABSTRACTWe aim to identify robust determinants of current account imbalances in 87 emerging and developing countries in the context of model uncertainty and selection bias, from 1980 to 2017. The uncertainty arises from the diversity of competing theories and the contradictory findings of empirical works, while the systemic unavailability of current account data causes selection bias. To overcome these issues, we extend Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to HeckitBMA in order to address model uncertainty in the presence of selection bias. We find that out of 21 potential determinants, only 10 are robust determinants. However, these determinants differ according to country groupings, and since the 2008 financial crisis, some determinants have gained importance, such as inflation targeting, macroprudential policies, and income inequality. Finally, we find that the determinants of current account surpluses are not strictly the same as those of deficits. Our results shed more light on how policy makers can manage current account imbalances and which levers to use.

State and Possibilities of Strengthening the Labor Potential of Russia (Based on the All-Russian Population Census 2020)

Introduction. The most complete information on the size and composition of the population is provided by continuous population censuses, which collect information necessary for the analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes in the composition of the population and the labor force. The purpose of the study is to identify changes in the numerical composition, age structure, and qualitative parameters of the labor potential of the Russian population in the period between the All-Russian population censuses of 2010 and 2020, and to outline ways to strengthen it. Materials and Methods. The study was based on the results of the All-Russian Population Censuses of 2010 and 2020, current accounting data and forecast calculations of Rosstat, publications of scientists engaged in research in the field of economic demography. The analysis of changes in the demographic development of the Russian Federation in the intercensal period was carried out using the methods of dynamic and structural analysis, and the generalization of the results of published scientific research was made on the basis of critical analysis. Quantitative parameters of the labor potential were estimated on the basis of indicators of the population of working age, employed in the economy, unemployed citizens and potential labor force. Results. The main changes in the number and composition of the Russian population by age and education that occurred during the inter-census period have been established. The quantitative and qualitative parameters of the labor force are determined. The outstripping growth of the level of education of unemployed citizens and potential labor force in comparison with those employed in the economy has been revealed, which, with a high degree of depreciation of the active part of fixed assets and a large part of workplaces with harmful and dangerous working conditions, suggests the archaic nature of the Russian economy and the general discrepancy between its requests and the level of education of the population. Calculations have shown that due to the involvement of potential labor in public production, it will not be possible to solve the problem of labor shortage. Discussion and Conclusion. In order to provide the Russian economy with the necessary labor force, it is suggested to consider the following options for increasing the working time fund: temporary increase in the retirement age for women, temporary decrease in the number of holidays, temporary decrease in the duration of paid leave, temporary increase in the length of the working week. The results of the research can be useful for scientists and representatives of public authorities dealing with demographic development, strategic planning, regional development, migration regulation, as well as for specialists in the field of personnel training.

Territorial differences between the data of the current population registration and the results of the 2020 Census

The article analyzes population data by federal districts, subjects and municipalities of the Russian Federation, obtained from two different official sources of Rosstat for close dates: data from the current population registration as of January 1, 2022 and data from the All-Russian Population Census of 2020, the control point of which was October 1, 2021. Since population size changes rather slowly, theoretically these data should not differ significantly. In fact, it has turned out that the population size across the country, according to various data, differs by more than 1% (by 1.6 million people in the direction of the census data). The lower the level of administrative division, the greater the differences. At the level of some municipalities of the Russian Federation, the differences make almost 2 times. Moreover, with approximately equal frequency, there are both municipalities where, according to the census, the population is greater than according to the current population registration, and with the opposite situation. The article identifies the administrative units of the country where the differences between the census data and the current population registration are the largest, and the causes of the differences in one direction or another. The largest “overweight” of the population in favor of the census was found in the municipalities of the Central Federal District (especially in the Moscow urban agglomeration), and the maximum “shortage” of the population compared to the current accounting data was in the Far Eastern and Siberian Federal Districts.

Analysis of the Current Account on the Balance of Payments in East Java Province

This study aims to analyze the current account on the balance of payments in East Java province. The method used is data analysis and literature study. The results of the analysis show that the current account on the balance of payments in East Java province has increased (surplus) from 2018 to 2019, but from 2019 to 2020 the current account data has decreased (deficit). This is because there are many factors, including the economic decline due to the Covid-19 outbreak which has hampered the pace of economic growth in East Java province and there are other factors such as the lack of public awareness of paying taxes, this has also caused the rate of economic growth.

Japanese Economic Performance after the Pandemic: A Sectoral Analysis

The COVID-19 crisis battered the Japanese economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the pandemic has left scars. To this end, it employs out-of-sample forecasting models and detailed stock market data for 30 sectors and disaggregated current account data for the 3 years after the first case occurred. The findings indicate that stock prices in sectors such as tourism, education, and cosmetics remain far below forecasted values after three years. Office equipment and semiconductor stock prices initially fell more than predicted but have since recovered. Other sectors such as bicycle parts and home appliances gained at first but are now performing as expected. Sectors such as home delivery and electronic entertainment continue to outperform. The results also indicate that income flows from Japanese investments abroad are much larger than forecasted, keeping the Japanese current account in surplus even as imports of oil and commodities have created persistent trade deficits. Since the travails of hard-hit sectors such as tourism reflect their exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than bad choices made by firms, policymakers should consider employing cost-effective ways to stimulate economic activity in these sectors.

Evolution of Migration Interaction of the Kirov Region with the Soviet and Post- Soviet Baltics

For a long period of time, the Kirov oblast acts as a donor region in internal migration. The aim of the work is the analysis of migrations from the Kirov region to Baltic in 1946–2020. It is relevant to consider the migration interaction of the two territories with the involvement of an inseparable array of archival data over a long period of time. The work provides a review of data sources on internal interregional migration in the period after the end of World War II to the present. The conclusion is drawn on the incomparability in time of the indicators of the volumes of relocation and the need to use additional tools for a retrospective analysis of inter-regional migration ties. For this purpose, it is proposed to calculate the coefficients of the intensity of migration ties and the coefficients of the effectiveness of migration exchange. Based on the current accounting data, a periodization of population migration is proposed, for each period the intensity and effectiveness of migration ties of the Kirov region with St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the Kaliningrad region, as well as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia during their entry into the USSR are determined. Analysis of interregional migration in 1989–2015 supplemented by census and microcensus data. The most intensively and effectively for the Baltic regions the resettlement was carried out in the period after the end of the war until the end of the 1980s. Subsequently, the intensity of departures from the Kirov region and the proportion of natives in the population of the Baltic regions decreased. Migration ties with the Kaliningrad region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region were more intense than with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, even during their entry into the USSR.

How are the international capital flows of rapidly aging countries affected by the elderly working longer?

The labor force participation rate of the elderly has markedly increased in countries with a rapidly aging population. To assess the interaction effects between elderly labor supply and population aging, this paper examines international capital flows. Using an open-economy overlapping-generations model, we show analytically that current account balances in countries with higher longevity deteriorate at a faster rate when the elderly work longer. This interaction effect mainly arises from the productivity effect of life expectancy, which amplifies the impact of an elderly labor supply through the improvement in health, and thus productivity, in old age. We test the empirical validity of our theoretical results using US current account data. The interaction effect between the labor force participation rate of the elderly and life expectancy is significantly negative, suggesting that the theoretical prediction holds empirically. Therefore, recent trends in population aging and retirement age will worsen current account balances.

ANALISIS INTERDEPENDENSI NILAI TUKAR, INFLASI, PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO, SUKU BUNGA DAN NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN DI INDONESIA

Depreciation of the rupiah prompted Bank Indonesia raised SBI to strengthen the rupiah, inflation has a downward trend when the appreciation of the rupiah, and the movement of the exchange rate also change the position of the current account of Indonesia. This study aimed to determine the role and effects of changes in exchange rates, inflation, gross domestic product, interest rates and the current account balance for each variable. Data obtained from secondary data is exchange rate, inflation, GDP, interest rates and the current account data from 2000:1 up to 2010:4. The model used in this study is the econometric model by the method of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) that in their analysis the instrument has Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). The results of this study concluded that (1) All variable giving each other random shock to other variables and response by each variable so as to achieve long-term equilibrium. This is shown on the estimation IRF test on each variable; (2) All variables are mutually contribute to other variables. It is shown by the results of estimation VD test, in which each variable contributed to other variables.

Sources of current account fluctuations in Taiwan: 1989–2015

In this paper, we use a small open economy model with nontradable goods and time-varying interest rates to investigate the sources of fluctuations in Taiwan’s current account. The correlation coefficient between the implied path of the current account generated from our model and the actual current account data exceeds 0.9, while tests of the cross-equation restrictions also support the model-implied present value relationship between the current account and other macroeconomic variables. We find the consumption smoothing channel, based on the discounted sum of the expected future net output growth, is the main channel for current account adjustment in Taiwan. Expected changes in the real effective exchange rate also account for much of the variation in the current account.

The Dynamics of the Brazilian Current Account with Rule of Thumb Consumers

O modelo intertemporal tradicional da conta corrente assume que todos os indivíduos seguem a teoria da renda permanente. A inovação propostanestetrabalhoéincorporaraomodeloclássicodadinâmicadaconta corrente a ideia de que uma parte dos consumidores apresenta comportamento do tipo rule of thumb. São estimadas a parcela da renda agregada que segue o comportamento rule of thumb e o coeficiente de formação de hábitos. Usando os dados de conta corrente para a economia brasileira,os resultados confirmam alguns fatos estilizados apresentados na literatura assim como algumas proposições básicas testáveis do modelo intertemporal da conta corrente

External adjustment and trading partners’ exchange rate regimes

Large and persistent current account deficits or surpluses have generated a dispute about the effects of exchange rate regimes on current account adjustment. The previous studies focus on the role of a country's regime in correcting its current account imbalances. However, assessing the overall impact of an exchange rate regime requires consideration of the effects of both the home country's regime and its trading partners’ regimes. Thus, this paper estimates the effect of trading partners’ regimes on the speed of the home country's current account adjustment, using a mean-reversion current account model and data of 80 countries from 1980 to 2010. The results show that when a country trades more with countries under non-free-floating regimes, its current account adjustment as a whole becomes slower than under free-floating. The adjustment speed, however, does not increase monotonically with the flexibility of the partners’ regimes. There is also an asymmetry in the adjustment, that is, less flexible regimes decelerate the adjustment of a partner in deficit of the current account. These findings are robust even when using other exchange rate regime classifications or employing different samples.

Modeling Multivariate Data Revisions

Data revisions in macroeconomic time series are typically studied in isolation ignoring the joint behaviour of revisions across different series. This ignores (i) the possibility that early releases of some series may help forecast revisions in other series and (ii) the problems statistical agencies may face in producing estimates consistent with accounting identities. This paper extends the Jacobs and van Norden (2011) modeling framework to multivariate data revisions. We consider systems of variables, where true values and news and noise can be correlated, and which may be linked by one or more identities. We show how to model such systems with standard linear state space models. We motivate and illustrate the multivariate modeling framework with Swiss current account data using Bayesian econometric methods for estimation and inference.

Causes of Global Imbalances: A Global VAR Analysis

We develop a Global VAR (GVAR) model for current account analysis. The model includes major economies involved in global imbalances and a few key macro variables to comprehensively examine the relations between these economies and the causality of the variables. We estimate the GVAR model based on current account data. Our approach improves panel regression on the causes by detecting both long-run relationship and short-run dynamics. We further apply the model to illustrate the evolution of the current account balance under different sources of shocks. Contemporaneous effects and variance decomposition are used to complement our findings from the impulse responses to the shocks. We find strong support for the low interest rate of the US as the main driving force of the current account imbalances. In particular, long-term interest rate decrease provides consistent mimic of the surpluses in China and Japan, and the deficit of the US. Undervaluation of yen is also evident, but the dynamics of the current account under renminbi depreciation do not consistently capture the stylized facts observed. The effects of real GDP growths and oil price on the imbalances are also mixed and thus not conclusive. Our variance decomposition confirms our findings by detecting substantial contribution of both US interest rates and yen/dollar exchange rate.

A two-tail version of the PPS distribution with application to current account balance data

The double Pareto-positive stable (dPPS) distribution is introduced as a new model for describing countries’ global current account balance data. The dPPS distribution provides a flexible model for fitting the entire range of a set of current account data (both surplus and deficit), where zero and unimodality are possible, and the double-sided Pareto distribution is included as a particular case. Expressions for the cumulative distribution, probability density and quantile functions are given. An estimation method is discussed and a simple graphical method for studying the adequacy of the data to model is given. Finally, we consider the fit of countries’ global current account balance data for several years. The new distribution is compared with four classical models: Normal, Skew Normal, Asymmetric Laplace and Hyperbolic distributions. In all the data sets considered, the dPPS distribution outperforms the fits of these four distributions.

The Effect Of Other Information On Equity Valuation: Kuwait Evidence

Previous studies on the value relevance of accounting information adopt Ohlsons linear information dynamics which, if other information is ignored, leads to a theoretical valuation model solely involving earnings, book value, and net shareholder cash flows or (net dividends). The lack of analysis of other value-relevant data may defeat the effectiveness of the Ohlsons model since the current accounting data cannot fully account for future earnings. The potential implication of ignoring other information is that it could introduce bias into estimated coefficients (e.g. Ohlson, 1995; Hand and Landsman, 2005). This study examines the effect of introducing other information proxied by lagged valuation error on equity valuation, utilizing a sample of non-financial companies listed at the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2003 to 2009. Empirical results of this study reveal that our proxy for other information appears to capture valuation implications of information other than current variables in the linear information dynamic setting. Results also reveal that adding other information to the valuation model clearly reduces the coefficients on earnings and dividends, and increases the coefficient of book value; however, book value and earnings remain significantly associated with stock prices. As a consequence, current accounting variables appear to be capturing some, but not all, of other information when this variable is omitted. We conclude that other information is an important factor in determining the market value of firms and hence should not be omitted in studies examining the value relevance of accounting information.

Accrual Accounting, Informational Sufficiency, and Equity Valuation

ABSTRACTThis paper studies accrual accounting and equity valuation in the context of a firm that makes repeated and overlapping investments in productive capacity. The analysis identifies a particular accrual accounting (depreciation) rule that is termed replacement cost accounting because the book value of existing capacity assets is set equal to the value that such assets would have if a competitive market were to exist for used assets. It is shown that replacement cost accounting aggregates past investment decisions of the firm without a loss of value‐relevant information. The intrinsic value of the firm can then be expressed as a function of current accounting data and certain parameters of the firm’s operating environment. Further, it is shown that replacement cost accounting is essentially the only accounting rule with this informational sufficiency property.

Current account dynamics with rule of thumb consumers

In this paper the idea of rule of thumb consumption, in which some households do not behave according to the Permanent Income Hypothesis, is applied to a small open economy framework. A model of current account with rule of thumb individuals and habit formation is presented and estimated for five different countries. Two parameters of the model are of particular interest: the share of domestic income that accrues to rule of thumb individuals and the coefficient of habit formation. Using current account data, the results obtained here support the view that rule of thumb behavior plays a major role in the economy. Moreover, the estimated habit formation coefficients are mostly small and nonsignificant.

How Will Rebalancing Demand Change Production in the Asia Pacific?

Rebalancing expenditures among and within surplus and deficit countries has emerged as a key global policy priority. This paper examines the implications of rebalancing expenditure categories in 10 Asia Pacific economies for the structure of production. An aggressive rebalancing scenario is constructed (based on 2007 current account data, since more recent imbalances are smaller) and its detailed production implications are analyzed using a large international input-output system. The changes associated with eliminating excessive international imbalances are found to be modest relative to major expenditure categories in the Asia Pacific. Moreover, significant overlaps in the production induced by different types of expenditures dampen the output effects of shifts among them. This does not mean that rebalancing will be easy to accomplish - spending reallocations are politically difficult - but the need to reinvent Asia's growth model appears to be overstated.

The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions

This paper analyses revisions of Swiss current account data, taking into account the actual data revision process and the implied types of revisions. In addition we investigate whether the first release of current account data can be improved upon by the use of survey results as gathered by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. An answer in the affirmative indicates that it is possible to improve first releases and thereby enhance the current assessment of the Swiss economy.