Current Account Reversals Research Articles

From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy

In the 1990s, Sudden Stops in emerging markets were a harbinger of the 2008 global financial crisis. During these Sudden Stops, countries lost access to credit, which caused abrupt current account reversals, and suffered severe recessions. This article reviews a class of models that yield quantitative predictions consistent with these observations, based on an occasionally binding credit constraint that limits debt to a fraction of the market value of incomes or assets used as collateral. Sudden Stops are infrequent events nested within regular business cycles and occur in response to standard shocks after periods of expansion increase leverage ratios sufficiently. When this happens, the Fisherian debt-deflation mechanism is set in motion, as lower asset or goods prices tighten the constraint further, causing further deflation. This framework also embodies a pecuniary externality with important implications for macroprudential policy because agents do not internalize how current borrowing decisions affect collateral values during future financial crises.

Current account reversals and structural change in developing and industrialized countries

This paper examines the compositional changes that occur in economies experiencing current account reversals using sectoral-level data on output and employment growth around 55 reversal episodes. The experiences of developing and industrialized countries are compared, and the role of currency crises is also examined. Labor market adjustment following reversals in developing countries is shown to differ from that of industrialized economies. The possibility that this difference is related to labor market informality is briefly examined.

As the Current Account Turns: Disaggregating the Effects of Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries

AbstractThis paper extends the study of current account (CA) reversals by considering the implications for the composition of output and employment. It is shown that decreases in CA deficits imply increases in tradable relative to non‐tradable output and/or declines in investment. The impact of CA ‘rebalancing’ should therefore be expected to vary considerably across sectors of an economy. This intersectoral variation is studied by examining the dynamics of output, employment and prices using data for 55 sectors of the economy during 14 industrial country reversal episodes. The output and employment declines associated with CA reversals are most clearly evident in investment‐related sectors, while sectors related to primary commodities generally perform relatively well following reversals. Reversals are also followed by increases in relative inflation for tradable goods sectors.

Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

This paper studies current account reversals in industrial countries across different exchange rate regimes. There are two major findings which have important implications for industrial economies with external imbalances: first, triggers of current account reversals differ between exchange rate regimes. While the current account deficit and the output gap are significant predictors of reversals across all regimes, reserve coverage, credit booms, openness to trade and the US short term interest rate determine the likelihood of reversals only under more rigid regimes. Conversely, the real exchange rate affects the probability of experiencing a reversal only under flexible arrangements. Second, current account reversals in advanced economies do not have an independent effect on growth. This result holds not only for industrial economies in general but also for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes in particular.

Current Account in Mauritius: Regime-Switch, Sustainability and Reversal

Using quarterly data over the period 1999Q1-2012Q1, this paper finds that the current account dynamics of Mauritius are adequately portrayed by a three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model that leads to two current account equilibria, namely a high deficit of 9% and a low surplus of 2.5% of GDP, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The current account is sustainable, as the model is globally stationary. The island has, notably, switched from the low-surplus to the high-deficit equilibrium in the latter half of the sample period. The model is used for stress testing the current account in order to trace probable current account reversal paths in the event of adverse shocks. These are identified as temporary or durable “capital and financial account” shocks that would lead to a transitory or permanent reduction in foreign currency availability on the domestic foreign exchange market, including through lower inward foreign direct investment (FDI) or withdrawal of existing foreign portfolio investment. The ensuing depreciation of the Mauritian rupee would lead to a J-type current account reversal process converging onto the 9% deficit equilibrium in response to temporary shocks but onto the 2.5% surplus equilibrium following durable shocks. In response to shocks, the authorities should intervene to smooth, but not counter, the reversal process. Any attempt to resist adjustment would lead to a harder landing subsequently. As the adjustment process could be painful, a better strategy would be for Mauritius to design and implement adjustment policies without waiting for shocks to materialise, in order to leave the high-deficit equilibrium and move back to the low-surplus equilibrium smoothly. These adjustment policies should aim to raise the international competitiveness of the island in the short-to-medium term. Regular monitoring in order to achieve some stability in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Mauritian rupee would, in this regard, constitute a useful first step.

Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Shedding Further Light on the Causes of Current Account Reversals

AbstractLarge shifts in countries' external current account positions can be disruptive, often reflecting sudden stops in the flows of external finance and leading to exchange rate and banking crises. As a result, an empirical literature has emerged on the sustainability of, and the determinants of large swings in, current account positions. Further light is shed on this issue by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account balance‐to‐gross domestic product (GDP) ratios of a large set of mature and emerging‐market economies using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in levels and trends. A chronology is constructed of current account reversals that is consistent with sustainability of external positions and it is used to estimate the factors explaining the likelihood and magnitude of such reversals by utilising a selection model with ordered probit in the selection stage. It is found that most of the factors that explain the probability of reversals, such as trends in capital flows, in the budget balance and in external positions, also influence their magnitude, but there are a few exceptions. For instance, the stance of monetary policy and the magnitude of external imbalances prior to a reversal seem to be more powerful predictors of the probability of reversals than of their magnitude.

Determinants and costs of current account reversals under heterogeneity and serial correlation

Using large panel data sets for analysis of determinants and costs of reversals asks for controls of latent heterogeneity among countries. This article performs a Bayesian analysis, which allows for a parsimonious yet flexible handling of country specific heterogeneity via random coefficients and serially correlated errors. Consideration of persistence within the employed macroeconomic data is important to gauge the impact of explaining variables suggested by theory correctly. Bayesian specification tests provide evidence in favour of models incorporating heterogeneity and serial correlation. The results suggest that costs of reversals are overestimated, when country specific heterogeneity is neglected and stress the importance of external variables in explaining current account reversals. Results are checked for robustness against the underlying reversal definition.

The role of macroeconomic policy in rebalancing growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has called the export-led growth model of many Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their “microeconomic” impacts on private sector behavior such as the household savings rate. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.

The Role of Macroeconomic Policy in Rebalancing Growth

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has called the export-led growth model of Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to a more sustainable pattern of growth centered on domestic and regional demand. This represents a significant departure from the traditional uses of macroeconomic policy to stabilize the economic cycle and achieve stable and low inflation. The evidence suggests that macroeconomic policy can successfully contribute to growth rebalancing. Policy measures not only can affect aggregate demand directly, but can also affect it indirectly via their microeconomic impacts on private sector behavior. Although in the long-term fiscal policy should be balanced to maintain government debt stability and avoid crowding out of private investment, there may be substantial scope to expand monetary and fiscal policy in the medium-term to offset the deflationary effects of an appreciating currency during periods of current account reversal. Previous experience suggests that most of the needed stimulus can be provided by monetary policy, with only a supplementary role to be played by fiscal policy. Moreover, Asian economies with large current account surpluses tend to have sufficient fiscal space.

Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Post Crisis Scenarios

This paper assesses the sustainability of global imbalances by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account positions (measured in relation to GDP) of the United States, China, Japan, Germany and the oil-exporting countries using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in levels and trends. We find that the external positions of these major countries/regions are stationary around structural breaks, which define episodes of current account reversals. On the basis of an event analysis of past reversals, it appears that structural breaks are associated with shifts in the fiscal stance, exchange rate parities and potential output growth, a finding that underscores the scope for macroeconomic and structural policies to ensure the sustainability of external positions while avoiding potentially disruptive reversals. These findings have implications for long-term capital flows after the crisis.

Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? Post Crisis Scenarios

This paper assesses the sustainability of global imbalances by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account positions (measured in relation to GDP) of the United States, China, Japan, Germany and the oil-exporting countries using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in levels and trends. We find that the external positions of these major countries/regions are stationary around structural breaks, which define episodes of current account reversals. On the basis of an event analysis of past reversals, it appears that structural breaks are associated with shifts in the fiscal stance, exchange rate parities and potential output growth, a finding that underscores the scope for macroeconomic and structural policies to ensure the sustainability of external positions while avoiding potentially disruptive reversals. These findings have implications for long-term capital flows after the crisis.

Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyse the determinants and the dynamics of current account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use efficient importance sampling. Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country-specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events.

Spain’s international position, 1850-1913,

AbstractSpain’s financial position during the late 19thand early 20thcenturies has usually been presented as one of persistent deficit on current account, which resulted from her integration into international commodity and factor markets and this, in turn, slowed down the growth of the economy. In this essay a preliminary reconstruction of the balance of payments on current account allows us to reject this view. In fact, a net capital inflow made possible to meet the demand for investment-boosting economic performance. Current account reversals in a context of macroeconomic domestic imperfections help to explain the economic slowdown at the turn of the century.

Are Working Remittances Relevant for Credit Rating Agencies?

Remittance flows are an important source of financing for developing countries. In addition to the microeconomic impact at the household level, remittances have grown into an important pillar of macroeconomic stability, reducing volatility of external flows, lessening the probability of current account reversals, thus strengthening creditworthiness. By studying 83 developing countries covering the period 1993-2006, we analyse the impact of workers’ remittances on sovereign rating assessment. First, we look at the traditional determinants of sovereign ratings and assess to what extent remittances are taken into account. Second, we build a model for high-remittance receptors to capture the potential effect that remittances may have on Fitch, Moody’s and S&P ratings. Third, we assign ratings to unrated Latin American countries for which remittance flows are generally high. Our conclusion supports the view that credit rating agencies (CRAs) do take remittance flows into account to rate sovereigns. Nevertheless, this variable turns out to be significant for a limited set of countries, small in size and classified in the low and middle income categories. We derive policy implications and recommendations from our findings for boosting rating coverage.

When Do Long-term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?

We extend the literature on sharp reductions in current account deficits by taking into account not only short-term determinants, but also the deviation of net foreign assets from their long-run equilibrium level. First, we analyse the long-term relationship between net foreign assets and a set of explanatory variables and construct a measure of imbalances. Next, we model current account reversals by incorporating this new measure and compare the predictive power of this model with the baseline specification that does not account for long-term imbalances. Our new model has a superior performance in and out-of-sample, especially when we control for the sign of imbalances. We also find that low net foreign assets do not necessarily lead to sharp reductions in current account deficits; it is rather the situation when they are below their equilibrium level that triggers reversals. Finally, we document that our new measure of net foreign asset imbalances is important only for developing countries, whereas standard models perform well for industrial economies.

Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models

The analysis of sharp and persistent reductions of current account deficits, which can be characterized as the transition from an unsustainable to a more sustainable level of current account balance, relies often on ad hoc criteria for identification of reversal episodes. Within this paper, an empirical framework in terms of a regime switching approach is presented allowing simultaneous identification of current account reversal episodes and their determinants. Additionally, this approach is extended towards analysis of the impact of a reversal on the path of economic growth. Empirical investigation of a panel containing developing countries suggests a different timing of reversals compared to timing delivered by ad hoc criteria. However, several determinants of reversals discussed in the literature remain valid. Our estimates of costs implied by the occurrence of a current account reversal amount to a severe reduction of economic growth, where output costs are found to vary largely across countries.

Do Workers’ Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?

This paper tests whether the large, cheap, stable, and low-cyclical flows of workers’ remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals in recipient countries. Using a large panel of emerging and developing economies, we find that this is indeed the case: when remittances get above 3% of GDP, the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves and a higher probability of current account reversals becomes less stringent. IV estimation proves that the effect of remittances on current account reversals is of a causal nature.

International Gross Capital Flows: A New Measure and Application to a Global Panel

This paper presents a new measure of international gross capital flows and applies it to a global panel from 1970 to 2004. We explain why paying attention to the gross flows underlying net capital flows may be important and how our gross flow measure differs from the standard measure in the literature. For ex ample, while by the standard measure a capital inflow decline more than fully ex plains Mexico’s current account reversal during the 1994-95 Tequila Crisis, our measure assigns an important role to capital outflows and implies a 63 percent higher ou tflow in 1995 compared to the standard measure outflow.

Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present

A considerable literature has examined the causes, consequences, and policy responses to surges in international capital flows. A related strand of papers has attempted to catalog current account reversals and capital account sudden stops. This paper offers an encompassing approach with an algorithm cataloging capital inflow bonanzas in both advanced and emerging economies during 1980-2007 for 181 countries and 1960-2007 for a subset of 66 economies from all regions. In line with earlier studies, global factors, such as commodity prices, international interest rates, and growth in the world's largest economies, have a systematic effect on the global capital flow cycle. Bonanzas are no blessing for advanced or emerging market economies. In the case of the latter, capital inflow bonanzas are associated with a higher likelihood of economic crises (debt defaults, banking, inflation and currency crashes). Bonanzas in developing countries are associated with procyclical fiscal policies and attempts to curb or avoid an exchange rate appreciation -- very likely contributing to economic vulnerability. For the advanced economies, the results are not as stark, but bonanzas are associated with more volatile macroeconomic outcomes for GDP growth, inflation, and the external accounts. Slower economic growth and sustained declines in equity and housing prices follow at the end of the inflow episode.

Current Account Dynamics and Monetary Policy

We explore the implications of current account adjustment for monetary policy within a simple two country SGE model. Our framework nests Obstfeld and Rogoff's (2005) static model of exchange rate responsiveness to current account reversals. It extends this approach by endogenizing the dynamic adjustment path and by incorporating production and nominal price rigidities in order to study the role of monetary policy. We consider two different adjustment scenarios. The first is a "slow burn" where the adjustment of the current account deficit of the home country is smooth and slow. The second is a "fast burn" where, owing to a sudden shift in expectations of relative growth rates, there is a rapid reversal of the home country's current account. We examine several different monetary policy regimes under each of these scenarios. Our principal finding is that the behavior of the domestic variables (for instance, output, inflation) is quite sensitive to the monetary regime, while the behavior of the international variables (for instance, the current account and the real exchange rate) is less so. Among different policy rules, domestic inflation targeting achieves the best stabilization outcome of aggregate variables. This result is robust to the presence of imperfect pass-through on import prices, although in this case stabilization of consumer price inflation performs similarly well.