Supply Of Currency Research Articles

Impact Of Remittances On Foreign Currency Supply In Developing Economies: A Case Of Zimbabwe From 2009 to 2022

The study investigates the impact of remittances on the foreign currency supply in Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2022. The analysis focuses on understanding how remittance inflows have contributed to the availability of foreign currency in the Zimbabwean economy, considering the economic challenges the country has faced, including hyperinflation, currency devaluation, and economic instability. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression method was employed to analyse Zimbabwe’s relationship between remittances and foreign currency supply. The study uses annual data from 2009 to 2022. The OLS regression results indicate a significant positive relationship between Zimbabwe’s remittances and foreign currency supply. The analysis reveals that remittances have been a crucial foreign currency source, helping stabilise the economy during economic turmoil. Additionally, exchange rates and GDP significantly impact the foreign currency supply. The findings underscore remittances’ vital role in enhancing Zimbabwe’s foreign currency supply. Given the economic instability in the country, remittances have served as a reliable and stable source of foreign exchange, which is critical for sustaining economic activities. This study contributes to the literature on remittances and their economic impact by providing empirical evidence from Zimbabwe. It highlights the importance of fostering policies encouraging remittance inflows, which can significantly stabilise foreign currency supply in developing economies facing economic challenges.

Monetary policy of Ukraine during the war

The purpose of this article is an in-depth statistical analysis of the military monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. The article examines how the monetary policy strategy, administrative restrictions, indicators of the money market of Ukraine and macroeconomic indicators changed during February 2022 – April 2024. Based on the conducted statistical analysis, it was found that the administrative restrictions implemented by the Regulator in relation to individuals and legal entities achieved the desired result. Indicators of demand and supply of currency on the market have halved. As the balance of payments of Ukraine shows, the withdrawal of currency abroad in the form of credit payments, interest, dividends, and rent also decreased, which significantly reduced the pressure on the national currency, which is clearly observed when analyzing the balance of payments of Ukraine.In the context of the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, the results of the study showed that thanks to the measures taken in the monetary policy, the National Bank managed to restrain the pressure on the national currency and to stabilize inflation by the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022, and already in the fourth quarter of 2023 it was possible to return inflation within the inflation target. However, in connection with the long-term management of the fixed exchange rate regime, the interventions of the National Bank increased significantly, causing considerable pressure on international reserves and creating a noticeable dependence of Ukraine on the financial aid of international partners. In addition, there are other caveats. The record amounts of currency outside the banks signal about the continuation of panicky moods and a decrease in confidence in the banking system. In addition, administrative currency restrictions negatively affected the gap between the total volume of import and export operations, which in the long run may hinder the further economic development of Ukraine. Despite the challenges, such as the growth of the volume of currency outside the banks and the noticeable dependence on international aid, it is important to emphasize that the implemented measures helped to reduce the risks and improve the financial stability of the country, which reflects the ability of the National Bank to respond effectively to economic challenges and ensure the stability of the financial system in times of crisis.

Is the business cycle getting hit by climate policy uncertainty in China?

This study apply an asymmetric time-varying test to assess the impact of China's climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) on its business cycle (2000–2022) using currency supply indices (M2, M1, and M0) as economic proxies. Linear Granger tests indicate no causal relationship between CCPU and the currency supply in general. However, the time-varying analysis reveals a significant impact of CCPU on M2 after December 2020. In addition, M2 mainly responds to negative CCPU shocks whereas M1 and M0 respond to both positive and negative shocks. Therefore, policymakers should adopt stabilisation measures to mitigate M2 contraction during CCPU surges while monitoring M1 and M0 for comprehensive currency policy adjustments.

Currency, Property and Stock Market Volatility : An Empirical Analysis of China

This passage continues the earlier investigation regarding the correlation among the currency market, the property market, and the equity market. Additionally, it examines the transfer of fluctuation impact among the three markets. The application of the VAR-MGARCH-BEKK time series model and the GARCH model aims to assess volatility correlations between property prices, currency supply, and the stock index. Furthermore, it seeks to test the proposed hypothesis concerning the impact of their respective undulations on the growth rate of the stock index. The study found that, in line with the previous research conclusions, there is no volatility effect in the three markets under the long-term trend; that is, there is no volatility spillover effect between the three markets, but there is a nonlinear ARCH effect, and the GARCH regression results show that the joint volatility of the stock index price and the other two prices significantly affects the volatility of the stock market itself.

Analysing the Factors Behind Exchange Rate Fluctuations in India

Abstract: The study gives an overview of the various determinants of the exchange rate movements in India. Out of the multiple factors affecting the Rupee-Dollar value the impact of Interest rate differential, Trade deficit of India, Foreign Net investment inflows to India, Oil prices, and Gold prices (in the short term) on the exchange rate has been studied using Regression analysis and correlation and the role they played by the above mentioned variables in determining the exchange rate during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2010 and during the Covid-19 Period from 2020-2023. Exchange rate fluctuations play a crucial role in shaping the economy of a country, and India is no exception. The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against major world currencies is subject to constant fluctuations, influenced by a multitude of domestic and global factors. These fluctuations have significant implications for various stakeholders, including businesses, consumers, investors, and policymakers. Several factors contribute to the exchange rate fluctuations in India. One of the primary factors is the demand and supply dynamics of foreign exchange. Factors such as trade balance, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, remittances impact the demand for and supply of foreign currency, Crude oil prices, Gold prices, and thereby affecting the exchange rate. In addition, macroeconomic variables like inflation, interest rates, and economic growth also play a crucial role in determining exchange rate movements. For instance, a high inflation rate in India compared to trading partner countries can lead to a depreciation of the rupee. Global economic conditions and geopolitical events are other significant factors influencing exchange rate fluctuations in India. Economic developments in major trading partners, changes in global commodity prices, and geopolitical tensions can all impact investor sentiment and capital flows, leading to fluctuations in the exchange rate. For example, uncertainties related to Brexit or trade tensions between major economies can trigger volatility in currency markets. Monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also play a crucial role in influencing exchange rates. Interest rate changes, open market operations, and forex interventions by the central bank can impact the value of the rupee visa-vis other currencies. The RBI often intervenes in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupee or prevent extreme volatility. Apart from these factors, market speculation, investor sentiment, and technological advancements in the financial markets can also contribute to exchange rate fluctuations. High-frequency trading, algorithmic trading, and the use of complex financial instruments by market participants can amplify exchange rate movements and increase volatility

ATM Forecasting using Optimized Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract: Running out of money at an ATM or other place results in higher costs for unscheduled currency supplies and less income from lost surcharge fees. However, banks are unable to invest this non-earning assets to produce interest revenue due to oversupply of currency. ATM forecasting automation is therefore urgently needed. Artificial neural networks are utilized as a forecasting method in this study because they function well for automated prediction tasks. The most significant algorithm for neural network training is propagation in reverse. However, it is prone to become stuck in local minima, which might result in incorrect answers. Thereby, in order to hybridize with artificial neural networks, a few global search and optimization strategies were needed. Genetic algorithms that mimic the idea of natural growth are one such method. Therefore, a hybrid intelligent system that combines genetic algorithms and neural networks made up of neurons is presented for ATM forecasting in this study. The suggested mixed approach functioned better than the current back propagation-based system, according to the results

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ВАЛЮТНОГО РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ

In the era of globalization and the advancement of information technology, Ukraine’s foreign exchange market encounters economic uncertainty, particularly amid efforts to overcome the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the challenges posed by a full-scale armed invasion by Russia. This situation introduces a range of short-term and long-term obstacles, notably disrupting established trade routes and supply chains, impacting the balance of imports and exports, and placing significant strain on the foreign exchange market among other areas. This article aims to analyze the current peculiarities of the domestic foreign exchange market’s operation amidst economic uncertainty, focusing on the impact of governmental and regulatory actions on its dynamics, especially throughout 2022-2023. It delves into the regulatory measures enacted to stabilize the foreign exchange market under martial law conditions. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has implemented several countermeasures in response to these challenges, including covering 37% of the currency supply, which resulted in a reduction in daily transactions and an enhanced role in market equilibrium. The measures also include restrictions on capital transactions and the facilitation of international assistance to satisfy foreign exchange demands. The future outlook of the foreign exchange market is contingent upon economic recuperation, foreign investments, macroeconomic policies, geopolitical risks, and regulatory frameworks. The significance of domestic reforms and international support is underscored as pivotal. It is also noted that global economic tendencies will influence Ukraine’s foreign exchange market in the aftermath of the conflict. This study is aimed at providing insights for professional analysts of the foreign exchange market, governmental bodies, and international financial institutions. Future investigations will explore the implications of the NBU’s policies on the foreign exchange market and their potential to foster economic recovery in Ukraine amidst prevailing challenges and threats.

Data Science for a Smarter Currency Supply Chain: Optimizing Cash Flow with Machine Learning for White Label ATMs

Effective cash flow management in White Label ATMs (WLAs) ensures liquidity and reduces operational costs. This paper explores the application of data science and machine learning techniques to optimize the currency supply chain for WLAs. We developed predictive models using time series forecasting, regression models, and neural networks to forecast cash demand and optimize replenishment schedules by analyzing historical transaction data, seasonal patterns, and geographical influences. The proposed solution integrates these machine learning algorithms with traditional logistics to create a smarter and more responsive ATM network. Python, Pandas, Scikit-learn, and TensorFlow were used for data processing, model development, and evaluation. The dataset comprised three years of historical transaction data from a network of WLAs enriched with demographic and economic indicators. Our findings suggest that machine learning can significantly enhance the efficiency of cash distribution, minimize downtime, and reduce costs associated with cash handling and transportation.

Overview of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine in the conditions of martial law

The paper examines the peculiarities of the functioning of the currency market of Ukraine in the conditions of martial law and takes into account the aspect of economic and political components. The data of the study of the currency market of Ukraine during the war period are presented and their content is analyzed. The causes and factors influencing the formation and activity of the foreign exchange market are identified, and proposals are given for carrying out stabilization measures and minimizing currency risks in conditions of stress and uncertainty caused by the war. The main elements of the NBU's regulatory easing policy on the currency market of Ukraine in wartime conditions are outlined. One of the first steps taken by the National Bank of Ukraine in times of macroeconomic and military-political instability were the measures of strict currency regulation aimed at minimizing currency risks. In order to maintain financial stability, the NBU had to introduce strict currency restrictions and fix the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the US dollar. Such administrative intervention helped to balance the foreign exchange market in conditions where it would have been impossible to do so by market methods. The temporary fixation of the exchange rate, strict restrictions on currency transactions, restrictions on withdrawals from currency accounts and other measures became a reliable basis for stabilizing both the currency market and the financial system of Ukraine. Of course, administrative restrictions smooth out temporary distortions in the foreign exchange market, but over time they can lead to the accumulation of imbalances, since the market mechanism of balancing the demand and supply of currency in search of exchange rate equilibrium ceases to operate, which sooner or later can lead to or to sudden major crises, or to endless stagnation. Therefore, long-term regulation of the foreign exchange market by strict administrative measures can have negative consequences. This prompted the NBU, in accordance with the new strategy of gradually abandoning the fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia, to switch to the strategy of easing currency restrictions and returning to flexible exchange rate formation and targeting. This strategy is one of the structural beacons of the memorandum with the IMF, which will determine the sequence of steps to liberalize currency restrictions and return to a more flexible exchange rate regime. If such mitigations are not made even in the conditions of a brutal war, the consequences for the country's financial system and the functioning of business can be negative.

Advantages and Disadvantages of a Government Solely Depending on Money Newly Created on Banks

Government spending is essential because it makes it possible to provide essential public goods and services and to build the necessary infrastructure. Taxes have historically been a major revenue source for governments. To fund government operations, taxes are charged on a person's or company's income, profits, or consumption. It would be a radical shift from the status quo if the government instead relied on money that was generated by the bank. In this alternate scenario, the central bank prints money to fund government spending instead of collecting massive amounts of tax revenue. By raising the supply of currency or reserves, the central bank expands the monetary base and injects fresh money into the economy. This study will analyze the pros and cons of having governments increasingly rely on bank-created money rather than tax revenue.

Economic Impact and Coping Mechanisms of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (S.M.E.s) in Nigeria during Currency Redesign

On October 26, 2022, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced a redesign of the N1, 000, N500, and N200 Naira currency notes to promote a cashless economy. Despite the well-intentioned government initiative, this policy posed significant challenges to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria, resulting in decreased sales and productivity. This study aims to assess the impact of the currency redesign on small business performance, gauge awareness and preparedness among SMEs regarding the redesign, explore coping mechanisms employed by SMEs during the currency overhaul in Lagos, Nigeria, and propose enhancements for future currency redesign strategies. Utilizing a structured online questionnaire, primary data was collected from 310 SMEs in the Yaba/Ojuelegba region of Lagos, Nigeria, employing a stratified random sampling technique. Both SPSS and Excel were utilized for data analysis. The findings indicated a considerable awareness of the currency redesign among business owners, yet inadequate preparedness due to limited resources and information. The currency redesign had a negative impact on SMEs, particularly in terms of decreased sales, but had little impact on workforce reductions. Price adjustments and better terms with suppliers were among the coping strategies, with point of sale (P.O.S.) machines emerging as the primary alternative payment method. Increased publicity, extended implementation periods, ample new currency supply, harmonized policies across government branches, alignment of monetary and fiscal policies, and increased implementation flexibility are among the recommendations for improved future implementations.

Assessing SDG-3 efficiency for SDG-1 by studying interplay of tourism development, poverty alleviation and sustainability.

The modern world is facing chaos of different connected issues. Achieving sustainability in the tourism industry for poverty reduction is one of them, having limited guidance for stakeholders. Thus, following SDG-3 guidelines for good well-being via tourism development could contribute to SDG-1 for no poverty. This roadmap needs scientific validation. Therefore, this research aims to determine how much of an overall impact tourism has on alleviating poverty and what factors account for the wide range of estimates of that impact. Using data from 2002 to 2020 and the ARDL model with eight variables, including (a) currency supply, (b) GDP per capita, and (c) tourism earnings higher GDP area, the current emphasis is on reducing the likelihood of any negative impacts this business may have on tourism. Lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) regions, higher profits per capita from tourism, and reduced poverty all have a role. With a 1% significance threshold, the observed data becomes more convincing. Last, the results show that the Laotian government intends for tourism to contribute to long-term environmentally responsible financial development. In addition, the study's empirical results corroborated the conclusion that policymakers should encourage the successful expansion of the tourist industry.

Effect of Currency Devaluation on Performance of Small and Medium Firms in Beirut, Lebanon

Currency devaluation refers to a deliberate and official reduction in the value of a country's currency in relation to other currencies. It can occur through various mechanisms, such as adjusting interest rates, intervening in foreign exchange markets, or implementing monetary policies aimed at reducing the supply of domestic currency. Currency devaluation can create financial challenges for SMEs. Financial institutions may be more cautious in extending credit due to increased risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations. Devaluation reduces the value of collateral assets, making it harder for SMEs to secure financing.  The research used the descriptive research design. The target population was 200 small and medium firms in Beirut, Lebanon.  The study did sampling of 150 participants that were chosen from the target population of 200 small and medium firms in Beirut, Lebanon. Questionnaires were utilized to gather data. In conclusion, the devaluation of the Lebanese currency has presented numerous challenges for these businesses, impacting their competitiveness, profitability, and sustainability. It is crucial for SMEs to understand the direct and indirect impacts of currency devaluation. Increased import costs, inflationary pressures, and reduced purchasing power have placed significant strain on SMEs. By recognizing these challenges, SMEs can develop effective financial management strategies and explore hedging mechanisms to mitigate currency risk. The study recommended that Lebanese SMEs should consider developing export-oriented strategies, including identifying new export markets, conducting market research, and adapting their products and services to meet international demand. By capitalizing on export opportunities, SMEs can diversify their revenue streams and reduce their vulnerability to the domestic economic challenges caused by currency devaluation. Keywords: Currency Devaluation, Performance, Small and Medium Firms, Lebanon

РЕГУЛЮВАННЯ ВАЛЮТНОГО РИНКУ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ФІНАНСОВОЇ НЕСТАБІЛЬНОСТІ ВОЄННОГО ЧАСУ

The article examines the peculiarities of the functioning of the currency market of Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The exchange rate dynamics in the pre-war period are shown and the factors of its formation in 2022-2023 are determined. It is noted that a significant inflow of capital into the country in the form of foreign aid from allied countries makes it possible to compensate for the foreign currency deficit. The NBU's measures to maintain exchange rate stability and their consequences for the monetary sphere in general and the foreign exchange market, in particular, are analyzed. Based on the study of risks and threats to the stability of the foreign exchange market, appropriate measures of the NBU to neutralize them in the conditions of martial law have been determined. The expediency of fixing the exchange rate at the current stage and the conditions for restoring the regime of flexible exchange rate formation are substantiated. It is established that during the period of martial law, financial markets remained stable due to the significant inflow of non-market capital into the country, the application of a fixed exchange rate and currency restrictions. Such positive consequences of maintaining a fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia as curbing the volatility of the foreign exchange market, reducing the cost of risk insurance, reducing the vulnerability of the economy to changes in capital flows, and stabilizing Ukraine's debt position have been identified.The directions for improving the regulation of the foreign exchange market in the short and long term are outlined. The NBU's strategic direction regarding the regulation of the foreign exchange sphere is the movement towards the gradual weakening of currency control and the removal of currency restrictions introduced at the beginning of the war, the transition to flexible exchange rate formation and the return to the monetary policy of inflation targeting. The restoration of production and the adjustment of transport logistics (opening of ports and/or setting up of alternative transportation routes), the revival of exports and the growth of foreign exchange earnings from other sources will ensure an increase in the supply of foreign currency on the market. After the cessation of hostilities, the NBU should conduct an exchange rate policy taking into account the tasks of post-war reconstruction, balancing between the stimulation of imports and the attraction of foreign investments

Guns, Guerrillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World by Benjamin R. Young

<i>Guns, Guerrillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World</i> by Benjamin R. Young

Валютные эффекты применения налоговой политики

The article examines the Russian experience in the field of currency regulation and the instruments that affect the exchange rate of the Russian ruble in crisis conditions. It is justified that the dynamics of the Russian ruble exchange rate depends primarily on the influence of four factors: the state of the economy of the issuing country, state monetary and financial policies, price dynamics of international commodity markets, and instability of the global monetary and financial system. It was established that the Russian ruble exchange rate also depends on the volume of foreign currency purchases by the population; a tendency for an increase in demand for foreign currency on the part of the population during the expectations of the Russian Federation (RF) national currency devaluation with a decrease in world oil prices was revealed. Based on an analysis of the currency policy of the Russian Federation, the authors come to the conclusion that curbing the weakening of the Russian ruble in the face of a decrease in the supply of foreign currency in the domestic market is carried out mainly through foreign exchange interventions and offer additional measures aimed at reducing demand on foreign currency through the introduction of tax instruments. Such measures will reduce the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on the volume of foreign currency inflows into the country, which will increase the efficiency of the Russian monetary policy and, as a consequence, the stability of the Russian economy to external adverse factors. In addition, six additional effects were revealed from the implementation of the proposed tax measures, which will strengthen the financial system of Russia. The proposed tax instruments can be applied in other countries, and the resulting increased demand for precious metals affects the global financial system up to its substantial transformation.

ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2020

Inflation is the most important indicators from economic and the rate of exchange always tries to be lower and stay stable. If the levels going high and become unstable, that will reflect a general and continuous increase in the prices of goods and services, weakening purchasing power of the population and thereby reducing national income. As a result, the inflation rate must be under control and the recent growth curve is visible. This study aims to analyzes the factors that affect inflation in Indonesia for the 2015-2020 period by the use of the Engel Granger (ECM) model error correction test to learn about the effect of variables such as currency supply and demand, interest rates and rate of exchange on inflation. The finding reveals that there is a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia. At the same time, compared to Indonesia's inflation rate, the Rupiah money supply (IDR) is positive and insignificant.

The influence of international capital flow on China’s economic growth rate

Recently, with continuous expansion of social globalization, the scale of international capital flow has been increasing. Moreover, international capital has increasingly become one of the important factors affecting the development of world economy and international market. Capital flow has far-reaching influenced on payments balance, international reserves, exchange rate stability, currency supply, etc. Combined with the trend of economic globalization, this paper mainly analyzes that under the background of the post epidemic era, central banks continue to print money in response to inflation, thus increasing the total amount of international capital flows and providing the possibility for market expansion. Based on this, this paper focuses on the impact of this change on China's economic growth rate. To predict the future development trend of China's financial market.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Inflation in Indonesia 2015 - 2020

Inflation is the most important indicator of the economy, and the exchange rate always tries to be lower and stay stable. If the levels are going high and become unstable, that will reflect a general and continuous increase in the prices of goods and services, weakening purchasing power of the population and thereby reducing national income. As a result, the inflation rate must be under control, and the recent growth curve is visible. This study aims to analyze the factors that affect inflation in Indonesia for the 2015-2020 period and uses the Engel Granger (ECM) model error correction test to learn about the effect of variables such as currency supply and demand, interest rates and rate of exchange on inflation. The results conclude that it has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia. At the same time, the Rupiah money supply is positive and insignificant compared to Indonesia’s inflation rate.

Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates

Abstract We examine international equity allocations at the fund level and show how excess foreign returns influence portfolio rebalancing, capital flows, and currencies. Our equilibrium model of incomplete foreign exchange (FX) risk trading where exchange rate risk partially segments international equity markets is consistent with the observed dynamics of equity returns, exchange rates, and fund-level capital flows. We document that rebalancing is more intense under higher FX volatility and find heterogeneous rebalancing behavior across different fund characteristics. A granular instrumental variable approach identifies a positive currency supply elasticity. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.