Currency Index Research Articles

News intensity and asset returns: the case of currency volatility

ABSTRACT There are both theoretical reasons and empirical evidence for financial markets rewarding investors who put effort into acquiring relevant information. This article shows how a systematic approach of encoding text, ‘semantic fingerprinting’ can be applied to a set of news headlines from The Wall Street Journal to measure the ‘news intensity’ − the volume of relevant news − pertaining to three major currency indices: dollar, pound and euro. In a dataset that spans two decades, we find a persistently positive link between the ‘news intensity’ and the volatility of currency returns, that becomes significantly stronger in times of recession: ‘bad news’ tends to translate into higher volatility.

Connectedness between central bank digital currency index, financial stability and digital assets

This study examines the interconnectedness between central bank digital currencies (CBDC) index, digital assets and financial stability. First, we use the CBDC index as a measure of financial stability and examine its connectedness with other known measures of financial stability used in the literature. Secondly, we analyse the connectedness of CBDC index with digital assets such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens and various measures of financial stability. By analysing index returns of CBDC data and applying various connectedness measures to CBDC index, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and NFTs, we gain insights into the relationships among these assets within a framework. The findings reveal a significant level of connectedness between CBDCs index, digital assets and financial stability. Our analysis shows a weak positive connectedness between CBDCs index and digital assets, indicating that movements in the CBDC index are not closely related to the performance of various digital assets and have a very small contribution to the changes in the returns of digital assets. Furthermore, the study finds bidirectional connectedness between CBDCs and other financial stability measures, suggesting that changes in CBDC performance can influence the overall stability of the financial system, and vice versa. This highlights the importance of carefully considering the design and implementation of CBDCs to ensure they support financial stability objectives.

The Fluctuation of the Digital Currency Share Price under the Expansion of the e-CNY Ecosystem

As our country’s legal digital currency, e-CNY will have a fundamental impact on social payment and lifestyle. We construct a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model by using the closing price of digital currency index from August 5th, 2021 to April 6th, 2022. We show that e-CNY ecosystem expansion events notably improve market confidence in digital currencies, which reflect large deviations from actual value as the predicted value after three ecosystem expansion events. This paper provides a reference for promoting the consensus of legal digital currencies from the perspective of the monetary demand side.

CURRENCY INDEX AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE LEVEL OF COUNTRY’S DEVELOPME

The vast majority of foreign operations are serviced by currency. The exchange rate of the national currency has a significant impact on both the terms of foreign trade and the international movement of capital. For a more accurate assessment of the impact of the exchange rate on foreign economic activity, it is advisable to use the currency index as the ratio of the market (official) exchange rate to purchasing power parity. The aim of our study is to establish the relationship between the level of development of the country and the currency index (including quantitative), as well as the rationale for approaches to the choice of foreign trade partners based on the currency indices. As a factorial basis for the study, statistics in 130 countries of the world were used. In the analysis of the results, a hypothesis about the existence of the relationship between the level of development of the country (which was determined by GDP per capita) and the index of the currency index was put forward. The hypothesis test was conducted using correlation and regression analysis. The indicator of R2 was used as the criterion of connection density. The research was carried out both in the whole array of countries, and for individual groups. The analysis showed a fairly close relationship between the currency index and the level of country development (which is reflected in the high value of the coefficient of determination). Even the unification of countries into economic unions and the transition to duty-free trade does not eliminate the differentiation of the price level and, accordingly, differences in the currency index. This is confirmed by the analysis of the calculated in the article currency index for the EU. And even the use of a single currency in the euro area does not eliminate this problem.

Linearity extensions of the market model: a case of the top 10 cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods

This research investigates the appropriateness of the linear specification of the market model for modeling and forecasting the cryptocurrency prices during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. Two extensions are offered to compare the performance of the linear specification of the market model (LMM), which allows for the measurement of the cryptocurrency price beta risk. The first is the generalized additive model, which permits flexibility in the rigid shape of the linearity of the LMM. The second is the time-varying linearity specification of the LMM (Tv-LMM), which is based on the state space model form via the Kalman filter, allowing for the measurement of the time-varying beta risk of the cryptocurrency price. The analysis is performed using daily data from both time periods on the top 10 cryptocurrencies by adjusted market capitalization, using the Crypto Currency Index 30 (CCI30) as a market proxy and 1-day and 7-day forward predictions. Such a comparison of cryptocurrency prices has yet to be undertaken in the literature. The empirical findings favor the Tv-LMM, which outperforms the others in terms of modeling and forecasting performance. This result suggests that the relationship between each cryptocurrency price and the CCI30 index should be locally instead of globally linear, especially during the COVID-19 period.

Сравнительный анализ потенциальной предпочтительности различных направлений инвестирования

The article offers the evaluation of investment performance in stock markets, money markets, product markets and others. The comparison is based on the «Return-Risk» Model grounded on the fundamental principles of H. Markowitz’s portfolio analysis. The quantitative comparison is conducted on return-risk ratio as well as return-risk variability intervals. In the formed group of leaders, the return-risk ratio was minimal (0,12) for the money market, and maximal (0,43) for the US stock market. The patterns in focus were grouped as follows: 1. High risk aversion: US branch analysis, currency index models, currency index models (sell) and intercontinental branch analysis.2. Medium risk aversion: US stock market, world stick indexes, precious metals market and exchange goods as a whole.3. Low risk aversion: Russia’s stock market. The practical evaluation of «Return-Risk» Models received for various investment patterns proved their practical validity. The empirical estimators of investment horizons computed for various groups of investment tools are of practical use.

RETURN ON INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF UNLICENSED SOLAR ENERGY PROJECTS IN TURKEY

First of all, this study aims to show how the power size and currency affect the return on investment percentages of unlicensed solar energy projects in Turkey. Commonly, the investors have confusions on their minds while taking investment decisions. Particularly, there are definite variables which may affect a solar energy project’s return on investment percentage and so the research question of how a multiple regression model can represent this percentage comes back to minds too. In order to simulate investment scenarios, this study is designed by using the sample of unlicensed solar energy installations which have the capacity of 250 KW, 500 KW and 1000 KW. According to the cash flow analyses for these samples the effects of power size and currency variables to return on investment percentages are observed. Therefore, the multiple regression model of return on investment percentages is offered by taking into account the power capacity and currency as independent variables to estimate the future cash flows by comparing each cases. As a result, the correlations are observed between dependent variable and independent variables. Especially, the power capacity has significant effect on return on investment rates of projects in accordance with the fundamental rule of risk-reward relation in finance. Also, the share of currency risk is calculated to prove how the volatility in currency index may affect the return on investment rates.

Trend-Following and Spillover Effects

We start by documenting trend-following (or time series momentum) in government bond, currency and equity index (all developed countries) at the asset class level, and at the multi-asset level, using 29 liquid instruments, with lookback periods ranging from 1 to 60 months. A typical multi-asset trend-following strategy delivers strong returns for short to medium term lookback periods. I document that trends spill over to other asset classes: past trends of assets can help to build investment strategies using other related assets. This spillover effect works better when using longer lookback periods than the sweet spot for trend-following.

Direct Versus Iterated Multi-Period Volatility Forecasts: Why MIDAS Is King

Multiperiod-ahead forecasts of returns’ variance are used in most areas of applied finance where long-horizon measures of risk are necessary. Yet, the major focus in the variance forecasting literature has been on one-period-ahead forecasts. In this review, we compare several approaches of producing multiperiod-ahead forecasts within the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) and realized volatility (RV) families—iterated, direct, and scaled short-horizon forecasts. We also consider the newer class of mixed data sampling (MIDAS) methods. We carry the comparison on 30 assets, comprising equity, Treasury, currency, and commodity indices. While the underlying data are available at high frequency (5 minutes), we are interested in forecasting variances 5, 10, 22, 44, and 66 days ahead. The empirical analysis, which is performed in sample and out of sample with data from 2005 to 2018, yields the following results: Iterated GARCH dominates the direct GARCH approach, and the direct RV is preferred to the iterated RV. This dichotomy of results emphasizes the need foran approach that uses the richness of high-frequency data and, at the same time, produces a direct forecast of the variance at the desired horizon, without iterating. The MIDAS is such an approach, and unsurprisingly, it yields the most precise forecasts of variance both in and out of sample. More broadly, our study dispels the notion that volatility is not forecastable at long horizons and offers an approach that delivers accurate out-of-sample predictions.

Does the Federal Constitutional Court Ruling Mean the German Financial Market is Efficient?

Following the landmark ruling by the German Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe on 7th February 2014 in which they endorsed the efficient market hypothesis, we present evidence on the efficiency of the German financial market. Introducing a new variance bound test based on the Component-GARCH model of volatility to analyse the long- and short-runs effects on the efficiency of the German financial market, we test the price volatility of three markets: DAX stock index, German sovereign debt index as provided by Barclays and Bloomberg, Euro gold index by the World Gold Council and Euro currency index by the Bank of England. The results seem to be indicating a relatively strong acceptance of the efficient market hypothesis in both the short and long runs in all the observed financial markets.

Currency indexes and consistent currency misvaluation: Illustrations using Big Mac data

A currency’s misvaluation versus an index of other currencies, termed the currency’s multilateral misvaluation, depends on the index weights. This study clarifies the idea of consistency in multilateral misvaluation and provides instructive empirical illustrations using several currency index weighting methods. For both of the Economist’s Big Mac approaches (“raw” and Adjusted) to intrinsic foreign exchange value, the study finds that a multilateral currency misvaluation estimate based on an equal-weight index does not necessarily provide a reasonable approximation to the estimate of a more economically-meaningful currency index.

Dynamic Currency Linkages and Their Determinants: An Empirical Study for East Asian Economic Community Region

ABSTRACTIn this article, Copula GARCH models have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of currency market co-movements between ASEAN+6 countries (referred to in this study as East Asian Economic Community) and ASEAN+6 currency market index. Empirical results show that the sample countries of the region exhibit varying levels of currency co-movements with the Asian benchmark. Markov regime switching results show that many of the countries which had high dependences with the regional currency index as was found in copula estimations had also overlapping currency market cycles. Using Principal Component Analysis, we find that three statistical factors explain exchange rate co-movements which came out to be trade linkages, economic risk, and currency market openness in our dynamic panel data estimation.

Financial markets interdependence in India: an empirical analysis

Very few studies have been conducted on the subject of mutual interdependence among domestic financial markets in developing countries like India. This paper aims to investigate the level of correlation and co-integration among the different financial markets in India. An empirical study has been done to analyse the extent of interdependence among the stock market, currency market, government bonds and commodity market. The time-series data were obtained for the period ranging from 2000 to 2015 from the stock market indices of NSE, government bonds and currency index (USD/INR), but for commodity index, it was computed by using simple weighted average mean. Later for the purpose of empirical investigation, statistical tools like co-integration test were done using e-views to study the long-term associations between the variables. The Granger causality is used to examine the causality among the different variables. The data was also checked against auto-correlation, stationary and unit roots.

Comparison of Cost of Equity Models: New International Evidence

For individual stocks of 46 countries, this study investigates empirical differences in discount rate estimates between three risk-return models of interest to managers who perform discounted cash flow valuation analysis: (1) the traditional (local) CAPM; (2) the global CAPM (GCAPM), where the only risk factor is the global market index; and (3) an international CAPM (ICAPM) with two risk factors, the global market index and a wealth-weighted foreign currency index. The study finds that model choice makes a substantial difference for many, but not all, countries.

Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB

This paper investigates whether the RMB is in the process of replacing the US dollar as the anchor currency in nine ASEAN countries, and also the linkages between the ASEAN currencies and a regional currency unit. A long-memory (fractional integration) model allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks is estimated for these purposes (Gil-Alana, 2008). The results suggest that the ASEAN currencies are much more interlinked than previously thought, whether or not breaks are taken into account, which provides support for a regional currency index as an anchor. Moreover, incorporating a break shows that the linkages between these currencies and the RMB and the US dollar respectively are equally important, and in fact in recent years the former have become stronger than the latter. Therefore including the RMB in the regional index should be considered.

Exchange Rate Linkages between the ASEAN Currencies, the US Dollar and the Chinese RMB

This paper investigates whether the RMB is in the process of replacing the US dollar as the anchor currency in nine ASEAN countries, and also the linkages between the ASEAN currencies and a regional currency unit. A long-memory (fractional integration) model allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks is estimated for these purposes (Gil-Alana, 2008). The results suggest that the ASEAN currencies are much more interlinked than previously thought, whether or not breaks are taken into account, which provides support for a regional currency index as an anchor. Moreover, incorporating a break shows that the linkages between these currencies and the RMB and the US dollar respectively are equally important, and in fact in recent years the former have become stronger than the latter. Therefore including the RMB in the regional index should be considered.

Gauging Liquidity Risk in Emerging Market Bond Index Funds

ETFs and index funds have grown at very rapid rates in recent years. Originally launched totrack some large liquid indices in developed markets, they now also concern less liquid assetclasses such as emerging market bonds. Illiquidity certainly affects the quality of the replication,and in particular, liquidity might increase the tracking error of any index fund, i.e., thedifference between the fund and the benchmark returns. The tracking error is then the firstcharacteristic that investors consider when they select index funds. In this paper, we beginfrom the CDS-bond basis to simulate the tracking error (TE) of a hypothetical well-diversifiedfund investing in the emerging market bond universe. We compute the CDS-bond basis andthe tracking error for 9 emerging market sovereign entities: Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico,Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. All of these countries are included inthe MSCI Emerging Market Debt in Local Currency index. Our sample period ranges fromJanuary 1, 2007 to March 26, 2012. Using a Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations(RSDC) model, we show that the country-by-country tracking error is reduced by the diversificationat the fund level. Moreover, we show that this diversification effect is less effectiveduring crisis periods. This loss of diversification benefits is the main risk of index funds when they are designed to create a liquid exposure to illiquid asset classes

Exchange Rate Linkages between the ASEAN Currencies, the US Dollar and the Chinese RMB

This paper investigates whether the RMB is in the process of replacing the US dollar as the anchor currency in nine ASEAN countries, and also the linkages between the ASEAN currencies and a regional currency unit. A long-memory (fractional integration) model allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks is estimated for these purposes (Gil-Alana, 2008). The results suggest that the ASEAN currencies are much more interlinked than previously thought, whether or not breaks are taken into account, which provides support for a regional currency index as an anchor. Moreover, incorporating a break shows that the linkages between these currencies and the RMB and the US dollar respectively are equally important, and in fact in recent years the former have become stronger than the latter. Therefore including the RMB in the regional index should be considered.

Do Time-Varying Betas Help in Asset Pricing? Evidence from Borsa Istanbul

ABSTRACTWe investigate the time variation in the market risk of industry portfolios of Borsa Istanbul with respect to changes in economic conditions by employing the threshold CAPM. The threshold CAPM defines beta as a function of an underlying economic variable, the threshold variable, to allow beta to change between two different regimes when the threshold variable hits a certain threshold level. We use interest rate, currency basket, real effective currency index, and market volatility as candidates for the threshold variable. We find there is a significant time variation in betas with respect to changes in the currency basket level.

Hedging International Foreign Exchange Risks via Option Based Portfolio Insurance

This paper proposes an option-based portfolio insurance method for international foreign exchange risk hedging. Each investor is assumed to maximize the expected utility of his/her portfolio which includes international risky assets and foreign currency index derivatives. The optimal investment is determined for quite general utility functions and hedging constraints. Our results show how and why foreign currency derivatives should be introduced in the investment portfolio to hedge currency risks. The main conclusion of the paper is that new types of options which combine both equity assets and foreign currency derivatives should be used, contrary to the current practice which considers two separate option markets.