Currency Exchange Market Research Articles

Monetary Policy Surprises in Russia

This paper studies the monetary policy transmission in the Russian economy. The key question of this research is to determine how monetary policy affects the economy through currency exchange rates. I construct a series of monetary policy surprises for the Russian economy using the high-frequency identification approach. Many papers use futures on interest rates as monetary policy instruments; however, we do not have these futures on the Russian financial market. Therefore, I use different currency futures as monetary surprises because these futures are liquid, and they may reveal market sentiments. I take the dates when the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia made a decision on the key rate and look at the changes in the currency exchange market in a tiny 30-minute window. Next, I construct a structural vector autoregression model to show the effect of these surprises on macroeconomic variables. In the identification process, I use the external instruments approach a la Gertler and Karadi (2015). Finally, I compare the results with other methods (Cholesky decomposition). I find that a tightening monetary policy significantly increases the bond rate; moreover, the effect on inflation is not immediate, but appears after a couple of months.

Empiryczna analiza zachowań młodego pokolenia klientów na rynku usług wymiany walut

Purpose – Defining preferences of the young generation of Poles’ representatives with regard to using services of the currency exchange market. Research method – A survey conducted on a group of 671 respondents aged 18 – 25 studying at the Podkarpackie Province’s universities and carried out in the form of a questionnaire in November 2017. It was preceded by a pilot dated to October 2017. Results – The behaviour of the young generation of Poles on the financial services market, the reasons for foreign exchange transactions by this group of clients, the determinants of the selection of a currency exchange site and the nature and frequency of using such services were determined. In addition, types of currencies and average amounts that were the subject of transactions on the currency exchange market for the analysed research sample were identified. Originality /value – The research outcome serves broadening knowledge about the behaviour of homogeneous groups of clients on the Polish currency exchange market.

Currency regulation in Russian banking system

The liberalization of currency regulation in the 1990–2000s was «partial». To date, significant restrictions remain regarding the requirements of the law on the procedure for performing currency operations and the prohibitive nature of the activities of Russian business. Control mechanisms do not allow to achieve macroeconomic targets for the stability of the ruble. The authors state that there is a need for reform in this area. The monetary policy plays an important role in regulating the market economy. It is a set of measures implemented in the sphere of international monetary and economic relations in accordance with the current and strategic plans of the country. The monetary policy of Russia is aimed at ensuring stability of its currency and domestic foreign exchange market as factors of development of the national economy and international economic cooperation. This policy is implemented by including foreign currency denominated obligations in currency regulation. One of the means of implementing foreign exchange policy is currency regulation, which is understood as «a set of purposeful actions of the state to form or change existing public relations on currency values through the application of legal and economic measures of influence». The principle of state responsibility for national security and development of the national economy is a unique principle for the Russian legal system. This should be a constitutional principle common to all branches of the Russian law. The article analyzes to what extent the principles of legal security may influence the legal regime of currency control in the Russian banking system.

Model Of The Russian Crypto Currency Exchange Market

In recent years, a new market trading in cryptocurrencies and instruments based on them has been formed. Its participants who are interested in it according to the rules they develop create the market of cryptocurrencies. The goal of this article is to substantiate the possibility of a more organized market of cryptocurrencies with its legitimate exchange market in its top with two possible versions: a) as a specific exchange market consisting of an exchange center and decentralized markets (exchanges) of certain cryptocurrencies and b) as a market of cryptocurrencies built in into certain segments of the already existing exchange markets. Functional aspects of creating the cryptoinstruments’ exchange market are considered, and possible models of organizing it are offered. The authors are based on the need to strengthen the regulatory participation of the state during the formation of this market because such participation allows better observance of public interests under the conditions when the private interest is a driving force of the market. The state regulation somehow minimizes financial risks for ordinary participants of the cryptocurrencies’ market, but at the same time limits the impact of the new market towards possible destabilizing effects on the monetary circulation in the country and on the current investment processes in it.

Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using neuro-fuzzy systems

The complex nature of the foreign exchange (FOREX) market along with the increased interest towards the currency exchange market has prompted extensive research from various academic disciplines. With the inclusion of more in-depth analysis and forecasting methods, traders will be able to make an informed decision when trading. Therefore, an approach incorporating the use of historical data along with computational intelligence for analysis and forecasting is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the Gaussian Mixture Model method is applied for data partitioning on historical observations. While the antecedent part of the neuro-fuzzy system of AnYa type is initialised by the partitioning result, the consequent part is trained using the fuzzily weighted RLS algorithm based on the same data. Numerical examples based on the real currency exchange data demonstrated that the proposed approach trained with historical data produce promising results when used to forecast the future foreign exchange rates over a long-term period. Although implemented in an offline environment, it could potentially be utilised in real-time application in the future.

Entrepreneurship in Virtual Economy: the Case of Currency One SA

Purpose: The scientific purpose of the study is an attempted synthesis of interpretation of “the virtual economy” and “the virtual environment” in the Polish and foreign literature on the subject. The cognitive purpose thereof is to offer an identification and a qualitative analysis of the factors that determine the development of e-entrepreneurship using an example of business practice. Methodology: The theoretical basis of the study is a scientific research of leading scholars on the theory of entrepreneurship in the context of virtual economy. An exploratory, qualitative case study methodology has been applied for the purpose thereof. The research has been conducted using the example of Currency One SA, operating on the currency exchange market in virtual economy. The application of the empirical method of a case study has made it possible to characterize the essence of e-entrepreneurship and present the studied phenomenon in business practice. Findings: Research results reveal an existence of interdependencies between the intellectual potential of staff members and the market success of a company. Explanation of the critical success factors, showing the implementation of innovative ICT solutions and stages of company development, illustrates how the existing theory is experienced by practitioners in virtual economy. Furthermore, the paper confirms the positive impact of e-entrepreneurship on the effectiveness of the company subject to analysis, and presents virtual economy as a completely new sphere through which it is possible to offer new products and services. Research implications: The rationale for conducting research on case studies is the need to orient the practice towards a better understanding of modern economic reality. The study may provide a starting point for empirical quantitative research, as well as act as a contribution to the discussion on entrepreneurship in the rapidly changing virtual economy. Originality: This paper comprises not only a set of notions related to and the concept of e-business models, but also offers new arguments in the discussion on the framework for entrepreneurship in virtual economy. The conducted research is an original attempt to explain the essence of the studied phenomenon and to illustrate its progress in a changing business environment.

Dynamics of exchange rate determination and currency order flow in the Thailand foreign exchange market

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present the essential role that currency order flow plays in the foreign exchange markets of emerging economies in the determination of their currencies in the short and the long-run against major currencies of the world, which cannot be over emphasized, most especially against the US dollar. Insomuch that, if some of these emerging economies can be successfully transmitted into full development, it would be a good model for other emerging economies and the world at large.Design/methodology/approachA hybrid model (portfolio shift model) proposed by Evans and Lyons (2002a, 2002b) is extended to analyze a data set of every quarter of an hour currency order flow and currency exchange rate fluctuations of Thai Baht (THB) against the US$ for the period of six years (January 2010 to December 2015). To reflect the pressure of currency excess demand, the authors construct a measure of currency order flow in the Thailand currency exchange market. Vector autoregression model is applied to estimate the effectual role of currency order flow in the determination of exchange rate for the THB against the US$.FindingsCurrency order flow indeed accounted for a sizeable and significant portion of the fluctuations in the THB and the US$ exchange rate.Originality/valueInsomuch that, the results show that currency order flow has significant explanatory power in the emerging markets economy to capture the THB exchange rate variability, and it then brings to the attention of the Thailand Monetary Authority the importance that should be attached to the market microstructure.

Diffusive and Arrestedlike Dynamics in Currency Exchange Markets.

This work studies the symmetry between colloidal dynamics and the dynamics of the Euro-U.S. dollar currency exchange market (EURUSD). We consider the EURUSD price in the time range between 2001 and 2015, where we find significant qualitative symmetry between fluctuation distributions from this market and the ones belonging to colloidal particles in supercooled or arrested states. In particular, we find that models used for arrested physical systems are suitable for describing the EURUSD fluctuation distributions. Whereas the corresponding mean-squared price displacement (MSPD) to the EURUSD is diffusive for all years, when focusing in selected time frames within a day, we find a two-step MSPD when the New York Stock Exchange market closes, comparable to the dynamics in supercooled systems. This is corroborated by looking at the price correlation functions and non-Gaussian parameters and can be described by the theoretical model. We discuss the origin and implications of this analogy.

Implication of Financial Reforms in China and Vietnam for North Korea

North Korea’s financial system is based upon a mono-banking system, centered on the Central Bank of the DPRK. The Central Bank of the DPRK serves diverse functions - aside from financial activities, it also acts simultaneously as a central bank and a commercial bank. From the experiences of China and Vietnam’s financial reform, we draw several implications for North Korea. With the enactment of the Central Bank Law and Commercial Banking Law, North Korea has already laid the institutional foundations for financial reform. What matters is to draft and carry out specific plans for implementation, create an environment conducive to its enforcement, and to continuously put the plan to practice. It is imperative to ensure the explicit prohibition of financial asset provisions via the central bank, to guarantee the smooth transition to commercial banks taking on the primary role in savings and deposits, to acquire substantive tools for currency and foreign exchange market operation, and to stimulate both the capital and foreign currency markets.

On-Line Portfolio Selection for a Currency Exchange Market

The purpose of this paper is to study on-line portfolio selection strategies for currency exchange markets and our focus is on the markets with presence of decrements. To this end, we first analyze the main factors arising in the decrements. Then we develop a cross rate scheme which enables us to establish an on-line portfolio selection strategy for the currency exchange markets with presence of decrements. Finally, we prove the universality of our on-line portfolio selections.

Phase Synchronization based Minimum Spanning Trees for the Analysis and Visualization of Currency Exchange Markets

Correlation based Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) networks are instrumental in capturing the basic workings of a system and have been accepted for use in the analysis of stock and currency exchange markets. Research in network analysis of financial markets shows that although correlations underlying MST networks capture essential information, they do not faithfully capture dynamic behavior embedded in the time series data of financial systems. We present a new Phase Synchronization (PS) based method for establishing correlations between nonlinear time series data, prior to constructing the MST. In this method, time series data generated by each entity in a system is transformed to a recurrence plot and the recurrence plots are further transformed to trajectories in phase space. For each pair of trajectories, phase synchronization (PS) is quantified based on the degree of phase locking observed. Distances for the MST are then computed as a function of the PS between each entity pair. We demonstrate the method using Thailand Baht exchange rates with 82 countries from 2004 to 2012. We further analyze and compare networks constructed using the PS method (PS-MST) and the existing cross-correlation method (CC-MST), to study the differences in market dynamics captured by these methods.

Moment Equations in Modeling a Stable Foreign Currency Exchange Market in Conditions of Uncertainty

The paper develops a mathematical model of foreign currency exchange market in the form of a stochastic linear differential equation with coefficients depending on a semi-Markov process. The boundaries of the domain of its instability is determined by using moment equations.

The Islamic Gold Dinar: An Alternative Hedging Tool?

This study examines the viability of the Islamic Gold Dinar as a hedging tool against currency exchange rate risk. Using the Auto Covariance Ratio the paper attempts to identify the percentage of time gold value is stable in the currency exchange market on a daily basis for a period of 12 years against the US Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. This study also examines the volatility of gold prices relative to a host of other currencies using conventional standard deviation. Our findings show that the value of gold is more stable than the US dollar and Malaysian Ringgit over the sample period. However our findings also reveal that the volatility of gold prices itself has been progressively rising since 2003. Further tests reveal that the volatility of gold prices are highly correlated with the volatility of other national currencies. We conclude that the Islamic Gold Dinar cannot as yet be used as a hedging tool for exchange rate risks.

Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?

The main goal of this paper was to examine the accuracy and confidence of financial forecasts during the 2009/2010 crisis. The study was carried out in February 2009 in Poland. The participants represented two groups: financial analysts and laypeople (people without knowledge or skills in finance). All participants were asked to forecast future stock market performance and foreign exchange rates. Additionally, they marked their confidence on a 100-point scale. The results showed that the forecasts significantly differed from the real values. In forecasting both the stock market and the currency exchange market, the prediction error significantly differed from zero. Even if the participants were optimistic in making the directional stock market forecasts, they were pessimistic when making point index predictions, which suggests a judgmental paradox. The experts were slightly better than the non-experts in predicting the stock market. However, their accuracy was generally not better in the exchange market forecasts. The next step of the analysis focused on the confidence factor. The results of this part of the research showed that the laypeople were less confident than the experts in all the judgments.

Shari'ah Parameters on the Islamic Foreign Exchange Swap as a Hedging Mechanism in Islamic Finance

The Islamic Foreign Exchange Swap (hereafter Islamic FX Swap) is a contract that is designed as a hedging mechanism to minimise market participants’ exposure to market currency exchange rates which are volatile and fluctuating. Although an Islamic FX Swap functions in almost the same way as its conventional counterpart, its structure must not contravene the principles of Shari'ah. In other words, an Islamic FX Swap structure should be free from any elements prohibited by Islam such as usury (riba), gambling (maysir) and excessive ambiguity (gharar). These prohibitions are mainly to promote justice and provide a level playing field in order to protect the interests of and circumvent harm to all parties involved in market transactions, which is in line with the objectives of Shari'ah (maqasid al- Shari'ah). This paper therefore aims to review the structure and mechanism of the Islamic FX Swap as currently offered by many Islamic financial institutions worldwide. Specifically, this paper highlights the Shari'ah parameters and guidelines in structuring an Islamic FX Swap. As will be evident in this paper, this instrument has its own advantages as a risk management tool which appeals to Islamic financial institutions as an instrument to hedge against currency exchange market rate volatility.

Asian Financial Crisis: An Analysis of the Contagion and Volatility Effects in the Case of Malaysia

The emergence of the Asian financial crisis in July 1997 had a tremendous impact on the economies of the Asian countries. This study aims at linking the contagion theory and the crisis faced in Malaysia with more emphasis on the effect of the contagion volatility in the currency exchange market. This research uses the co-relation analysis, models of ARCH, GARCH and also GJR-GARCH in demonstrating the link. The results show that the crisis in Malaysia was not merely due to the weakness in its economic fundamentals, but also due to the contagion and volatility effects particularly originated from Thailand and Singapore. This study suggests the need for a more systematic management system with improved transparency in the financial sector even though the effect of the crisis contagion could hardly be prevented.

Analysis of a network structure of the foreign currency exchange market

We analyse structure of the world foreign currency exchange (FX) market viewed as a network of interacting currencies. We analyse daily time series of FX data for a set of 63 currencies, including gold, silver and platinum. We group together all the exchange rates with a common base currency and study each group separately. By applying the methods of filtered correlation matrix we identify clusters of closely related currencies. The clusters are formed typically according to the economical and geographical factors. We also study topology of weighted minimal spanning trees for different network representations (i.e., for different base currencies) and find that in a majority of representations the network has a hierarchical scale-free structure. In addition, we analyse the temporal evolution of the network and detect that its structure is not stable over time. A medium-term trend can be identified which affects the USD node by decreasing its centrality. Our analysis shows also an increasing role of euro in the world’s currency market.

Can a South East European Country Have a Strong Currency? Albania Case

The dilemma which is presented in this article is connected with problem of excessive for a currency. The discussion is based on South Eastern European country case, which is the Albania and its currency – Lek. This currency has a very low marketability outside Albania and a pretty short history in the currency exchange market, during which it had experienced high fluctuations. But we should accept that after the 2000’s, our national currency began to reach relatively constant ratios with the main currencies on the exchange market. This stability has fulfilled the normalization picture of the macroeconomic parameters, which were so much unstable during the fast essential changes that happened in the first years of transition. In this article we will try to present the real position of the Albanian currency in the Albanian exchange market.

Speculative opportunities for currency exchange under soft peg

The paper studies trading strategies for currency exchange market which do not employ any distribution assumptions on exchange rate evolution. It is found that there are strategies that ensure some speculative opportunities for currency exchange under condition of currency corridor or soft peg.

Contagion in the Brazilian interbank currency exchange market: an empirical analysis

The risk of contagion is the possibility that the failure of a financial institution affected by an exogenous shock generates the failure of other institutions not initially affected by the shock. As pointed out by Upper and Worms (2002) and others, the domino effect in the payment system depends on the precise pattern of interbank linkages. This paper studies the occurrence of financial contagion after the exogenous failure of an institution authorized to operate in the Brazilian interbank currency market. The data contain information about all the actual transactions that occurred in this market from August 1st, 2000 to October 31st, 2002. The adopted methodology shows the occurrence of contagion propagation in several subsequent rounds after the initial failure. We quantify the number of institutions that breakdown and the financial losses of the market. There is a large increase in the number of failed institutions during the period of the presidential elections in 2002.