Cumulative Moment Research Articles

Investigating the Last Millennium Coulomb Stress Transfer in the Central Apennine Fault System (CAFS)

AbstractThe Central Apennine Fault System (CAFS) characterizes an active tectonic region of significant importance, witnessing numerous destructive seismic events over the last millennia. Although numerous studies have underscored the role of Coulomb stress transfer (CST) in initiating some of the most catastrophic earthquakes, investigations focusing on its specific influence within the CAFS are limited. This research delves into a thorough examination of the effects of CST on both historical and instrumental seismic events of significant magnitude associated with the CAFS. We selected nine seismic events for the CST investigation, dating from 1279 CE to present. Beyond analyzing the static stress transfer for each individual seismic event, the cumulative CST of recent instrumental earthquakes was also examined to provide a comprehensive overview of the current stress scenario. Leveraging an innovative approach, faults were modeled adopting a variable strike three‐dimensional elliptical shape, ensuring enhanced calculation accuracy. Significant findings emerge from the analysis: CST has played a pivotal role in either activating or inhibiting the faults of the CAFS over the centuries. Several examined instances showcase fault reactivation following increased transferred stress within relatively short time frames, while others highlight the inhibitory effect of stress shadows. Examining the differences in seismic moment release across three seismicity windows (the first one between 1300 and 1400, the second around 1700, and the last one from 1979 to 2016) reveals distinct periods of higher seismicity in the past millennium. The latter shows the lowest cumulative seismic moment, suggesting a potential seismic gap equivalent to a Mw 6.67 earthquake. Deepening our understanding of CST illuminates the role of fault interactions in past earthquake occurrences, offering valuable insights into forecasting potential future seismic sequences. This awareness is vital in crafting targeted seismic risk mitigation strategies, thereby safeguarding local communities from the profound consequences of earthquakes.

Early postseismic slip of the 21 November 2022 Mw 5.6 Cianjur, Indonesia, earthquake based on GPS measurements

ABSTRACT Global Positioning System (GPS) data after the 21 November 2022 Mw 5.6 Cianjur earthquake are crucial for understanding the physical processes during the postseismic phase. New continuous GPS stations were installed and recorded data for periods ranging from five to twenty-five days after the mainshock. The daily time series data at GPS stations shows an evolving logarithmic decay over time, as expected due to frictional afterslip. We inverted the postseismic displacement data to solve the postseismic slip distribution, utilising Akaike’s Bayesian information criterion. A cumulative aseismic slip moment of 1.54 × 1016 N·m, equivalent to Mw 4.7, is modelled during the period from five to twenty-five days after the mainshock. This aseismic slip moment is equivalent to approximately 7% of the seismic moment during the mainshock. Our analysis on the newly identified active fault using GPS displacements highlights the imperative need to identify active faults prior to future earthquake occurrences, especially when conducting hazard mitigation in populated regions in Indonesia.

Bayesian Method for Quality Control with Weibull Distribution

Weibull distribution is one of the continous probability density function. This distribution is known as a flexible distribution. One of it’s flexibility is can be transformed into other distributions such as exponential distribution depends on parameter selected. Similar to other distribution, Weibull distribution also characterized by cumulative distribution function, mean, variance and moment generating function. One of the well-known application of this distribution is in the field of quality control utilizing reliability data and the well-known tool in quality control is control chart. Therefore, reliability data is not follow normal distribution then Shewhart control chart cannot be applied. To solve this problem, control chart can be formed with the control limit is obtained by Bayesian method. In applying Bayesian method, prior distribution of shape parameter is assumed to be uniform distribution and variables for reliability is assumed to be invers of Weibull distribution. The prior distribution is combine with likelihood function then posterior distribution is obtained which in then used as the control limits by find it’s mean.

Determining whether biomechanical variables that describe common ‘safe lifting’ cues are associated with low back loads

Lift technique training programs have been implemented to help reduce injury risk, but the underlying content validity of cues used within these programs is not clear. The objective of this study was to determine whether biomechanical variables, that commonly used lifting cues aim to elicit, are associated with resultant low back extensor moment exposures. A sample of 72 participants were recruited to perform 10 repetitions of a floor-to-waist height barbell lift while whole-body kinematics and ground reaction forces were collected. Kinematic, kinetic, and energetic variables representative of characteristics commonly targeted by lifting cues were calculated as predictor variables, while peak and cumulative low back moments were calculated as dependent measures. Multiple regression revealed that 56.6–59.2% of variance in low back moments was explained by predictor variables. From these regression models, generating motion with the legs (both greater hip and knee work), minimizing the horizontal distance of the body to the load, maintaining a stable body position, and minimizing lift time were associated with lower magnitudes of low back moments. These data support that using cues targeting these identified variables may be more effective at reducing peak low back moment exposures via lift training.

Phase Diagram of the MgF2–SrF2 System and Interactions of Magnesium and Strontium Fluorides with Other Fluorides

The phase diagram of the SrF2–MgF2 system has been studied by differential thermal analysis (DTA) and X-ray powder diffraction (XRD). The stability area of the compound SrMgF4 is very small, and its extent is about 20°С between 870 and 890°С. The formation of compounds by magnesium fluoride and strontium fluoride with other metal fluorides is considered in the M versus X coordinates, where M is the cumulative moment of the cation and X is the cation electronegativity. Two areas of compound formation were identified for each of the fluorides. Magnesium and strontium fluorides are amphoteric compounds in terms of the Lewis acid and base theory.

Numerical Simulation of Seismicity Induced by Gas Production—Implications for the Seismic Hazard Assessment

AbstractNumerical models reproducing the seismic evolution in gas fields can be utilized to study the characteristics of compaction‐induced seismicity during production and thus derive valuable information for the assessment of the seismic hazard. Here, we present a numerical approach for a Rotliegend gas field in Northern Germany (“reference field”), consisting of the simulation of poro‐elastic stresses within a 3D finite element model. Fault stability is controlled by Coulomb friction, whereas the post‐failure process is implemented using a slider‐block model. The model successfully computes seismic sequences, which reproduce the main characteristics of the observed seismicity in the reference field: the location, the temporal seismic evolution, including the retarded onset several years after the beginning of production, the high prevalence of moderate magnitudes, the observed maximum magnitude and cumulative seismic moment release. The numerical simulations reveal that seismicity‐driving stresses are restricted to the vicinity of fault intersections with the top and bottom of the reservoir, respectively. Slip frequently extends beyond the vertical boundaries of the reservoir, although the failure process is generally self‐arrested outside the reservoir boundaries. The magnitude frequency distribution of observed and simulated earthquakes deviates from the log‐linear behavior frequently assumed in seismic hazard assessments. Instead, the earthquake activity is consistent with a “characteristic earthquake” model, where a fault repeatedly hosts earthquakes with a specific maximum magnitude. Our analysis indicates that production‐induced seismicity is primarily controlled by poro‐elastic stress changes rather than by unknown details of subsurface conditions. This allows for a prognosis of future seismicity and associated hazard.

Computer simulation as a macroergonomic approach to assessing nurse workload and biomechanics related to COVID-19 patient care

This study uses Digital Human Modelling (DHM) and Discrete Event Simulation (DES) to examine how caring for COVID-19-positive (C+) patients affects nurses' workload and care-quality. DHM inputs include: nurse anthropometrics, task postures, and hand forces. DES inputs include: unit-layout, patient care data, COVID-19 status & impact on tasks, and task execution-logic. The study shows that reducing nurses' biomechanical workload increases mental workload and decreases direct patient care, potentially leading to stress, burnout, and errors. Compared to pre-pandemic conditions, when nurses were assigned five C+ patients, cumulative bilateral shoulder moments and lumbar load decreased by 38%, 36%, and 46%, respectively. However, this was accompanied by increases in mental workload (242%), task waiting-time (70%), and missed-care (353%). These effects were driven by the large increase in required infection control routines. Combining DHM and DES can help evaluate workplace/task designs and provide valuable insights for healthcare system design-policy setting and operational management decision-making.

The Energetic 2022 Seismic Unrest Related to Magma Intrusion at the North Mid‐Atlantic Ridge

AbstractA seismic swarm affected the 53.3°–54.3° Latitude North section of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge from 26 September to 10 December 2022. We rely on regional, teleseismic and array data to relocate 61 hypocenters and derive 77 moment tensors. The 2022 swarm released a cumulative moment equivalent to Mw 6.3. Seismicity was shallow (7 ± 3 km depth). Most earthquakes are located along the ridge axis with typical, NS oriented normal faulting mechanisms, but a few among the largest and latest earthquakes have unusual thrust mechanisms and locations as far as ∼25 km from the ridge. We attribute the swarm to a shallow magmatic intrusion, with a vertical dike first propagating ∼60 km along axis, accompanied by shallow normal faulting, and then thickening and triggering thrust earthquakes off the ridge, in response to compressive stress buildup. The unrest provides a rare example of an energetic, magmatic driven swarm episode at the mid‐ocean ridge.

Small‐Magnitude Seismic Swarms in Central Utah (US): Interactions of Regional Tectonics, Local Structures and Hydrothermal Systems

AbstractSwarms in Central Utah are situated in the complex transition between the Basin and Range (BR) province and the Colorado Plateau. Transecting transverse structures, volcanic deposits, and hydrothermal systems complicate the extensional BR horst and graben structures and provide a multitude of plausible triggering mechanisms. Revisiting the catalog of the University of Utah Seismograph Stations (1981–2022), we analyze spatio‐temporal patterns and characteristic features of seismic sequences. Swarms with alternating seismicity rates, bursts, and longer swarms with persistent moment release exhibit a remarkable diversity in temporal evolution. Swarm durations do not scale with cumulative seismic moment: swarms lasting less than 1 day can have similar cumulative seismic moments as month‐long swarms. We observe stationary swarms re‐occurring for years (e.g., Mineral Mountains), as well as singular swarms in low‐seismicity areas (e.g., activating a local structure in Milford, 2021). The swarms show a pronounced heterogeneity in triggering and driving mechanisms, observed in the detailed analysis of exemplary sequences (detections, relocations, moment tensors, waveform‐based clustering, and repeater analysis). The 2022 Sevier Valley sequence activated a BR‐related normal fault, the first resolved fault plane in the valley since 1983. The 2011 Circleville sequence is interpreted as a swarm triggered by mainshock‐aftershock activity characterized by increasing magnitudes, changing rupture mechanisms, and a concentration of highly similar events in the second part of the sequence. By jointly discussing exemplary sequences and catalog statistics, we draw a comprehensive picture of swarm activity and its relation to geothermal and tectonic activity.

The modeling of fault activation, slip, and induced seismicity for geological [formula omitted] storage at a pilot-scale site in the Janggi Basin, South Korea

We investigate the effects of possible fault activation and slip during geological CO2 storage operations numerically. To this end we develop a numerical simulator by coupling a multiphase flow simulator with an existing geomechanics simulator in order to model fault slip and seismic events induced by reservoir pressurization. After validation and verification of the developed coupled simulator, we apply it to a pilot-scale site of geological CO2 storage located in the Janggi Basin, South Korea. We design a fault structure with a fault core and surrounded damage zones, assuming the fault to be activated along the fault core only. Zero-thickness interface elements are employed in the numerical model to represent the fault core. We perform numerical tests with different injection scenarios to evaluate the impact of pore pressure on fault activation and its post-failure behavior. We model occurrence and the magnitude of seismic events, identifying sudden changes of the moment magnitude at the onset of fault activation. Specifically, we take CO2 injection with 100 , 200, 400 ton/day for 20 years, from which the cumulative moment magnitudes (Mw’s) of 1.46, 2.36 and 3.11 are estimated, respectively. However, the maximum instantaneous changes of Mw occur at the onset of fault activation for all the injection cases (i.e., approximately 0.1, 0.36, 0.75, respectively). As the injection rate increases, fault activation occurs early and the magnitude of induced seismicity becomes large, but substantial reduction of the injection rate can weaken following induced seismicity. Interestingly, the location of maximum surface lift does not correspond to the injection well due to heterogeneity of geology and geomechanics. We thus expect relatively low risk of induced seismicity overall within the range of injection rates considered in this study, but monitoring surface uplift and seismic signals is still necessary to prevent any unexpected events due to uncertainty of parameters.

Complementary Gamma Zero-Truncated Poisson Distribution and Its Application

Numerous lifetime distributions have been developed to assist researchers in various fields. This paper proposes a new continuous three-parameter lifetime distribution called the complementary gamma zero-truncated Poisson distribution (CGZTP), which combines the distribution of the maximum of a series of independently identical gamma-distributed random variables with zero-truncated Poisson random variables. The proposed distribution’s properties, including proofs of the probability density function, cumulative distribution function, survival function, hazard function, and moments, are discussed. The unknown parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood method, whose asymptotic properties are examined. In addition, Wald confidence intervals are constructed for the CGZTP parameters. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the efficacy of parameter estimation, and three real-world data applications demonstrate that CGZTP can be an alternative distribution for fitting data.

Using InSight Data to Calibrate Seismicity From Remote Observations of Surface Faulting

AbstractWe use a scaling relationship between fault length and scalar moment to predict seismicity from the Cerberus Fossae graben using shear modulus and fault lengths. Cerberus Fossae is 20–40° (1,200–2,300 km) from the InSight lander and matches the location of 21 recorded seismic events withMw ≥ 3. These unique seismic observations make an ideal laboratory to test our method of predicting seismicity on another planet using surface fault observations. Terrestrial faults have observed patterns of rupture depth distributions and segmentation. We use these patterns and magnitudes of detected marsquakes to predict moment release of events in Cerberus Fossae over a range of plausible Martian rupture vertical slip extents (VSEs) of 2, 20, and 40 km, which are rooted in estimates of crustal thickness, elastic thickness, and seismicity depth. We sum individual events for each case to determine cumulative moment release and use deformation duration to determine annual moment release. Predicted seismicity rates are dependent on the duration of deformation, which in this case is well constrained to 2–10 Ma. We compare our results to events recorded at Cerberus Fossae by InSight and find that seismicity rates for the cases with a 40 km maximum VSE or no limit on VSE are within an order of magnitude of observed seismicity. Faults with maximum VSEs of 2 km best match observed magnitudes. Our approach, using only observed fault lengths, segmentation, seismogenic thickness estimates, and deformation duration, produces seismicity estimates that are as accurate as methods that take rupture offset into account.

Fast migration episodes within earthquake swarms

SUMMARY The hypocentres of natural earthquake swarms and injection-induced seismicity usually show systematic migration, which is considered to be a manifestation of their triggering mechanism. In many of these cases, the overall growth of the earthquake distribution is accompanied by short episodes of rapid migration, the origin of which is still not sufficiently clarified. We review the possible triggering mechanisms of these migrating episodes and propose a graphical method for distinguishing internal and external triggering forces. We also analyse the theoretical relationship between the evolution of the cumulative seismic moment and the rupture area and propose two models, the crack model and the rupture front model, which can explain the spreading of hypocentres. We developed an automatic algorithm for detecting fast migration episodes in seismicity data and applied it to relocated catalogues of natural earthquake swarms in California, West Bohemia, and Iceland, and to injection-induced seismicity. Fast migration episodes is shown to be relatively frequent during earthquake swarms (8–20 per cent of all events) compared to fluid-induced seismicity (less than 5 per cent of the events). Although the migration episodes were detected independently of time, they grew monotonically with time and square-root dependence of radius on time was found suitable for majority of sequences. The migration velocity of the episodes of the order of 1 m s−1 was found and it anticorrelated with their duration, which results in a similar final size of the clusters scattering around 1–2 km. Comparison of seismic moment growth and activated fault area with the predictions of the proposed models shows that both the rupture front model and the crack model are able to explain the observed migration and that the front model is more consistent with the data. Relatively low estimated stress drops in the range of 100 Pa to 1 MPa suggest that aseismic processes are also responsible for cluster growth. Our results show that the fast migrating episodes can be driven by stress transfer between adjacent events with the support of aseismic slip or fluid flow due to dynamic pore creation.

Geologic investigation of lobate scarps in the vicinity of Chandrayaan-3 landing site in the southern high latitudes of the moon

The Chandrayaan-3 primary landing site (PLS) is located in the southern high latitude region between 68–70° S and 31–33° E of the Moon. We have found two scarps (scarp #1 and #2) in the surrounding area of PLS. Since lobate scarps are one of the youngest tectonic structures on the Moon and they are seismically active recently, we have conducted a detailed morphological and topographic investigation of the scarps to examine their origin. Subsequently, chronological and seismic investigation of the inferred lobate thrust fault scarps in the PLS region was carried out to assess the safety and the possible hazards to the lander/rover of the Chandrayaan-3 mission. Our analysis reveals that out of the two scarps located in the PLS region, scarp #2 is a typical lobate thrust fault scarp, which is generally comparable in vergence direction, maximum relief, and maximum slope on the scarp face to the scarps found elsewhere on the Moon. Scarp #1 could be potentially a non-fault related scarp. The crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) based best-fit ages derived for the scarp face, and hanging and footwalls of the scarp reveal that the scarp is a younger generation scarp (∼20–30 Ma). We have found evidence of fresh and faded boulder-fall trails on the rims and walls of multiple craters located around the scarp #2. The seismic measurements reveal potential shallow moonquakes induced by the lobate scarp #2 could have generated a moonquake of a cumulative or maximum possible moment magnitude of Mw 6.3. Based on our analysis of the potential ground shaking caused by the shallow moonquake, it appears that the landing site is safe from seismic hazards. Nevertheless, we propose that the Instrument for Lunar Seismic Activity (ILSA) onboard the Chandrayaan-3 lander could possibly detect recent Mw 4 shallow moonquakes, provided that they occur currently at a focal depth of <1 km.

Risk aggregation with FGM copulas

We offer a new perspective on risk aggregation with FGM copulas. Along the way, we discover new results and revisit existing ones, providing simpler formulas than one can find in the existing literature. This paper builds on two novel representations of FGM copulas based on symmetric multivariate Bernoulli distributions and order statistics. First, we detail families of multivariate distributions with closed-form solutions for the cumulative distribution function or moments of the aggregate random variables. We provide methods to compute the cumulative distribution function of aggregate rvs when the marginals are discrete, then order aggregate random variables under the convex order. Finally, we discuss risk-sharing and capital allocation, providing numerical examples for each.

Cumulative knee adduction moment during jogging causes temporary medial meniscus extrusion in healthy volunteers.

The cumulative knee adduction moment (KAM) is a key parameter evaluated for the prevention of overload knee injuries on the medial compartment. Medial meniscus extrusion (MME), typical in hoop dysfunctions, is a measure for the cumulative mechanical stress in individual knees; however, its correlation with cumulative KAM is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of temporary overload stress on MME and its correlation with cumulative KAM. Thirteen healthy asymptomatic volunteers (13 knees) were recruited for a cohort study (mean age, 23.1 ± 3.3years; males: n = 8). The cumulative KAM was calculated using a three-dimensional motion analysis system, in addition to the number of steps taken while jogging uphill or downhill. MME was evaluated using ultrasound performed in the standing position. The evaluations were performed four times: at baseline (T0), before and after (T1 and T2, respectively) jogging uphill or downhill, and 1day after (T3) jogging. Additionally, the Δ-value was calculated using the change of meniscus after efforts as the difference in MME between T1 and T2. The MME in T2 was significantly greater than those in T0 and T1. Conversely, the MME in T3 was significantly lesser than that in T2. No significant difference was found between those in T0 and T1, and T3. ΔMME exhibited a significant positive correlation with the cumulative KAM (r = 0.68, p = 0.01), but not for peak KAM. The temporary reaction of MME observed in ultrasound correlates with the cumulative stress of KAM.

Coseismic and early postseismic deformation of the 2020 Nima Mw 6.4 earthquake, central Tibet, from InSAR and GNSS observations

The 2020 Mw6.4 Nima earthquake is one of the largest normal-faulting earthquakes recently occurring north of the Banggong suture zone in remote central Tibet, where geologic investigation of active faults is extremely limited. We analyze jointly InSAR and GNSS observations over 9 months after the Nima earthquake and calculate the coseismic and postseismic displacement. The optimal coseismic slip model suggests this event is the result of moderate-angle down-dip slip on a complex reversed “S-shape” three-segmented structure at fault junctions of the West Yibu-Chaka fault, the Heishi fault, and an unmapped blind fault, with a small component of left-lateral slip. The superposition of seismic waves from faults with different strikes and dips accounted for a large non-double-couple component in the long-period point-source solutions. The geodetic moment released by the mainshock is 6.4 × 1018 N⋅m, equivalent to Mw 6.42. Coseismic rupture concentrated at a depth of 4–15 km, with a peak slip of 1.36 m at 8.5 km depth. The cumulative afterslip moment within 9 months after the mainshock is 1 × 1018 N m, about 15.6% of that released by the mainshock coseismic slip. The afterslips contributed largely to the release of additional strain energy. In addition, shallow creep on the northern part of the blind fault, and deep uplift on the east normal fault system are promoted by stress perturbations. A significant proportion of down-dip coseismic slip spreading to more than 20 km beneath the surface, and deep up-slip afterslip have implications for the rheology of down-dip extension of the dipping faults in northern Tibet. Two obvious stress loading zones of more than 1 bar highlight seismic hazards in the region, especially in the junction between normal faults and ends of the large-size sinistral Riganpei-Co and Jiangai-Zangbu faults. It is necessary to forecast accurately by longer-term afterslip observation over timescales of years for the faults. Compared with previous studies, our results suggest a more complex subsurface fault geometry linking the normal and strike-slip faults and dynamic stress adjustment in this poorly-known region of Tibet.

Relative Afterslip Moment Does Not Correlate With Aftershock Productivity: Implications for the Relationship Between Afterslip and Aftershocks

AbstractAseismic afterslip has been proposed to drive aftershock sequences. Both afterslip moment and aftershock number broadly increase with mainshock size, but can vary beyond this scaling. We examine whether relative afterslip moment (afterslip moment/mainshock moment) correlates with several key aftershock sequence characteristics, including aftershock number and cumulative moment (both absolute and relative to mainshock size), seismicity rate change, b‐value, and Omori decay exponent. We select Mw ≥ 4.5 aftershocks for 41 tectonically varied mainshocks with available afterslip models. Against expectation, relative afterslip moment does not correlate with tested aftershock characteristics or background seismicity rate. Furthermore, adding afterslip moment to mainshock moment does not improve predictions of aftershock number. Our findings place useful empirical constraints on the link between afterslip and potentially damaging Mw ≥ 4.5 aftershocks and raise questions regarding the role afterslip plays in aftershock generation.

New Results for Pearson Type III Family of Distributions and Application in Wireless Power Transfer

The Pearson type III and the log Pearson type III distributions have been considered in several scientific fields, as in hydrology and seismology. In this article, we present new results for these distributions and we utilize them, for the first time in the literature, to investigate the statistical behavior of wireless power transfer, which can prolong the lifetime of Internet of Things networks, considering the nonlinear relationship between the received and harvested power, which can be precisely modeled by using the logistic function. Specifically, we present new closed-form expressions for the statistical properties of a general form of the Pearson type III and the log Pearson type III distributions and we utilize them to introduce a new member of the Pearson type III family, the logit Pearson type III distribution, through which the logit gamma and the logit exponential distributions are also defined. Moreover, we derive closed-form expressions for the probability density function, the cumulative distribution function and moments of the distributions of the sum, the log sum, and the logit sum of Pearson type III random variables. Furthermore, taking into account that the Pearson type III family of distributions is closely related to the considered nonlinear energy harvesting model the statistical properties of the distribution of the harvested power are derived, for both single input single output and multiple input single output scenarios with or without channel state information at the transmitter.

THE ZERO, ONE AND ZERO-AND-ONE-INFLATED NEW UNIT-LINDLEY DISTRIBUTIONS

In this paper, we propose the zero, one and zero-and-one-inflated New unit-Lindley distributions as natural extensions of the New unit-Lindley distribution to model continuous responses measured at the following intervals [0, 1), (0, 1] and [0, 1]. They were constructed based on convex combinations between the New unit-Lindley distribution and the distributions degenerate at zero, one, and Bernoulli distribution. They also have a number of interesting properties, such as being members of the exponential family. Besides, they have closed forms for the cumulative distribution functions, quantiles, and moments. Inferential aspects and regression structures arediscussed in this work as well as a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate theperformance of the regressors. Finally, we bring an application to real data on the suicide rate in the year 2016.