Cumulative Incidence Function Research Articles

Serum lipids as predictive markers for death by suicide

Serum lipid levels have been associated with an increased risk of suicidal behaviors. This retrospective cohort study aimed to investigate the association between serum lipid levels and death by suicide among suicide attempters according to sex. Suicide attempters visiting emergency departments between 2007 and 2011 were followed up until the date of all-cause death or December 31, 2012. Sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk models were constructed to obtain the hazard ratios (HR) of serum lipid measures and suicide. For each significant lipid variable in the final models, Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and cumulative incidence function (CIF) were employed to compare the time to suicide between the high- and low-lipid groups based on the best cutoff point from the receiver operating characteristic curve. In 408 female attempters (65.8 %), the HR in the Cox regression model and subdistribution HR in the competing risk model for increased total cholesterol (TC) were 0.968 and 0.970, respectively. In the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and CIF, increased death by suicide was demonstrated in the low-TC group (< 165 mg/dL). Lower serum TC levels among female suicide attempters may predict suicide. More careful monitoring is warranted in women with lower TC levels who recently attempted suicide.

Augmented inverse probability weighted estimation and prediction for cause-specific proportional hazards regression with missing covariates

This paper describes estimation of the regression parameters and prediction of the cumulative incidence functions under the cause-specific proportional hazards model when some of covariates are not fully observed. Assuming that missingness mechanism is missing at random, we propose the augmented inverse probability weighted method for estimation and inference procedures. A nonparametric regression approach is adapted for estimating selection probabilities and conditional expectations of missing covariates in the augmented estimating function. We establish the asymptotic properties of the predicted cumulative incidence functions under the cause-specific proportional hazards model with missing covariates and derive consistent variance estimators of the predicted cumulative incidence functions. Simulation studies show that the procedures perform well. The proposed methods are illustrated with stage IV breast cancer data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute.

Long-term outcomes of 5-year survivors without recurrence after the complete resection of non-small cell lung cancer after lobectomy: a landmark analysis in consideration of competing risks.

Among non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC), 5years is a benchmark in cancer control and treatment, but a certain percentage of cases recur after 5years. The long-term post-recurrence outcomes remain controversial. To examine the accurate prognostic factors associated with survival and cancer recurrence among 5-year survivors, a landmark analysis that considered competing risks was performed. Complete resection of NSCLC was performed in 2482 patients between January 2003 and December 2015. A total of 1431 patients were 5-year survivors without recurrence. A landmark time analysis was applied to the overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) from 5years after surgery, and the findings were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The cumulative incidence of cause-specific death and recurrence was estimated using the cumulative incidence function, while carefully considering the competing risks. Postoperative recurrence was detected in 732 patients, of whom 68 (9.3%) had recurrence after 5years. The median follow-up period was 8.2 years. In the competing risk analysis, the independent poor prognostic factors associated with cause-specific death were age ≥ 75 years, lymph node metastasis and pleural invasion. Patients requiring a follow-up for > 5years were aged ≥ 75years and had either lymph node metastasis or pleural invasion.

A Risk Model for 28-Day in-Hospital Mortality in 173 COVID-19 Patients Admission to ICU: A Retrospective Study.

The surge in the number of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 since China's open-door policy has placed a huge burden on the public healthcare system, especially the intensive care system. This study's objective was to discover possible clinical outcome predictors in COVID-19 patients treated in intensive care units (ICUs) and to provide useful information for future preventative efforts and therapies. This retrospective study included 173 COVID-19 critically ill patients and reviewed the 28-day survival outcome in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University. Competing risk analysis was performed to predict the cumulative incidence function (CIF) of mortality in hospital. The independent prognostic factors were identified by applying the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazard model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate model efficacy, and calibration curves were used to validate the model. Finally, we compared the competing risk model with the traditional proportional hazards model (Cox regression model) using CIF. Of these 173 patients, 66 (38.2%) survived, 55 (31.8%) died, and 52 (30.0%) discharged. In univariate analysis, 12 variables were significantly correlated with mortality. In multivariate analysis, Age, Neutrophil ratio, Direct Bilirubin (DBIL) and Renal disease were independent predictors of 28-day outcome. The ROC curve of the multivariate prediction model showed an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.790. The results of the calibration curve and the concordance index (C-index) show that the model has good discriminatory power. The competing risk model we applied was more accurate than the Cox model. We presented a more accurate multivariate prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality for ICU COVID-19 patients using a competing risk model.

Utilization of Patient-Specific Characteristics and Competing Risks to Tailor the Duration of Surveillance Imaging After Surgery for Renal Cell Carcinoma

Purpose: The appropriate duration of follow-up after surgical resection of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) remains incompletely defined. To better inform on this time line, we investigate when an individual's risk of RCC recurrence becomes less significant than their risk of non-RCC death. Materials and Methods: We identified 1672 patients who underwent surgery for M0 RCC between 1999 and 2018. Patients were stratified by pathologic stage, histology, age, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status. Cumulative incidence functions were estimated for RCC recurrence and non-RCC death using Fine and Gray models. Follow-up durations were estimated as the time point at which the cumulative incidence of non-RCC death exceeded that of RCC recurrence. Results: At a median follow-up of 2.1 years (IQR 0.6-5.1 years), a total of 272 recurrences (16.3%) and 234 non-RCC deaths (14.0%) occurred. The fitted model showed significant associations of stage with RCC recurrence and of age and ECOG with non-RCC death. For 50-year-old patients with pT1aN0-x clear cell and ECOG 0, the incidence of non-RCC death exceeded that of recurrence after 4.4 years. However, if such patients had an ECOG status of 1 or 2 to 4, the incidence of non-RCC death exceeded that of recurrence at 30 days, suggesting that routine oncologic surveillance may not be necessary. Alternatively, regardless of ECOG status, the incidence of non-RCC death failed to exceed that of recurrence for &gt;13.9 years in all patients age 50 with &gt; pT3aN0-x clear cell thereby suggesting longer surveillance than currently recommended. Conclusion: Modeling competing risks of RCC recurrence and non-RCC death provide patient-specific estimates when follow-up may be reasonably discontinued.

Androgen deprivation therapy-related fracture risk in prostate cancer: an insurance claims database study in Japan

IntroductionAndrogen deprivation therapy (ADT) is widely used for the treatment of prostate cancer. ADT is associated with reduced bone density leading to an increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to quantify fracture risk in men treated with ADT for prostate cancer in real-world practice in Japan.Materials and methodsData were extracted from the Japanese Medical Data Vision (MDV) database. Men initiating ADT for treatment of prostate cancer between April 2010 and March 2021 were identified and matched to a cohort of prostate cancer patients not taking ADT using a propensity score. Fracture rates were estimated by a cumulative incidence function and compared between cohorts using a Cox cause-specific hazard model. Information was extracted on demographics, comorbidities and bone densitometry.Results30,561 men with PC starting ADT were matched to 30,561 men with prostate cancer not treated with ADT. Following ADT initiation, <5% of men underwent bone densitometry. Prescription of ADT was associated with an increased fracture risk compared to not taking ADT (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.63 [95% CI 1.52–1.75]).ConclusionADT is associated with a 1.6-fold increase in the risk of osteoporotic fracture in men with prostate cancer. Densitometry in this population is infrequent and monitoring urgently needs to be improved in order to implement effective fracture prevention.

Complete anatomic segmentectomy shows improved oncologic outcomes compared to incomplete anatomic segmentectomy.

To compare oncologic outcomes after segmentectomy with division of segmental bronchus, artery and vein (complete anatomic segmentectomy) versus segmentectomy with division of <3 segmental structures (incomplete anatomic segmentectomy). We conducted a single-centre, retrospective analysis of patients undergoing segmentectomy from March 2005 to May 2020. Operative reports were audited to classify procedures as complete or incomplete anatomic segmentectomy. Patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy or pulmonary resection beyond indicated segments were excluded. Survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier models and compared using log-rank tests. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for death. Cumulative incidence functions for loco-regional recurrence were compared with Gray's test, with death considered a competing event. Cox and Fine-Gray models were used to estimate cause-specific and subdistribution HRs, respectively, for loco-regional recurrence. Of 390 cases, 266 (68.2%) were complete and 124 were incomplete anatomic segmentectomy. Demographics, pulmonary function, tumour size, stage and perioperative outcomes did not significantly differ between groups. Surgical margins were negative in all but 1 case. Complete anatomic segmentectomy was associated with improved lymph node dissection (5 vs 2 median nodes sampled; P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis revealed reduced incidence of loco-regional recurrence (cause-specific HR = 0.42; 95% confidence interval 0.22-0.80; subdistribution HR = 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.81), and non-significant improvement in overall survival (HR = 0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-1.00) after complete versus incomplete anatomic segmentectomy. This single-centre experience suggests complete anatomic segmentectomy provides superior loco-regional control and may improve survival relative to incomplete anatomic segmentectomy. We recommend surgeons perform complete anatomic segmentectomy and lymph node dissection whenever possible.

Mortality Risks Over 20 Years in Men With Stage I to III Hormone Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer

In women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer, the risk of distant recurrence and death persists for at least 20 years from diagnosis. The risk of late mortality in men with HR+ breast cancer has not been reported. To report 20-year risks of breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) and non-BCSM in men with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer and identify factors associated with late BCSM. An observational cohort study was conducted of men diagnosed with HR+ breast cancer from 1990 to 2008, using population-based data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Men diagnosed with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer were included in the analysis. Cumulative incidence function was used to estimate the outcomes of baseline clinicopathologic variables regarding cumulative risk of BCSM and non-BCSM since diagnosis. Smoothed hazard estimates over time were plotted for BCSM. Fine and Gray multivariable regression evaluated the association of preselected variables with BCSM, conditional on having survived 5 years. BCSM. A total of 2836 men with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer were included, with a median follow-up of 15.41 (IQR, 12.08-18.67) years. Median age at diagnosis was 67 (IQR, 57-76) years. The cumulative 20-year risk of BCSM was 12.4% for stage I, 26.2% for stage II, and 46.0% for stage III. Smoothed annual hazard estimates for BCSM revealed an increase in late hazard rates with each incremental node category, reaching a bimodal distribution in N3 and stage III, with each having peaks in hazard rates at 4 and 11 years. Among patients who survived 5 years from diagnosis, the adjusted BCSM risk was higher for those younger than 50 years vs older than 64 years, those with grade II or III/IV vs grade I tumors, and stage II or III vs stage I disease. The findings of this study suggest that, in men with stage I to III HR+ breast cancer, the risk of BCSM persists for at least 20 years and depends on traditional clinicopathologic factors, such as age, tumor stage, and tumor grade. Among men with higher stages of disease, the kinetics of the BCSM risk appear different from the risk that has been reported in women.

Explained variation and degrees of necessity and of sufficiency for competing risks survival data.

In this contribution, the Schemper-Henderson measure of explained variation for survival outcomes is extended to accommodate competing events (CEs) in addition to events of interest. The extension is achieved by moving from the unconditional and conditional survival functions of the original measure to unconditional and conditional cumulative incidence functions, the latter obtained, for example, from Fine and Gray models. In the absence of CEs, the original measure is obtained as a special case. We define explained variation on the population level and provide two different types of estimates. Recently, the authors have achieved a multiplicative decomposition of explained variation into degrees of necessity and degrees of sufficiency. These measures are also extended to the case of competing risks survival data. A SAS macro and an R function are provided to facilitate application. Interesting empirical properties of the measures are explored on the population level and by an extensive simulation study. Advantages of the approach are exemplified by an Austrian study of breast cancer with a high proportion of CEs.

Influence of socioeconomic status on rates of advanced heart failure therapies

BackgroundSocioeconomic deprivation is associated with a lower likelihood of referral for advanced heart failure (HF) evaluation, but it is not known whether it influences rates of advanced HF therapies independently of key hemodynamic measures and comorbidity following advanced HF evaluation in a universal healthcare system. Materials and MethodsWe linked data from a single-center Danish clinical registry of consecutive patients evaluated for advanced HF with patient-level information on socioeconomic status. Patients were divided into groups based on the level of education (low, medium, and high), combined degree of socioeconomic deprivation (low, medium, and high), and household income quartiles. Rates of the combined outcome of left ventricular assist device implantation or heart transplantation (advanced HF therapy) with death as a competing risk were estimated with cumulative incidence functions, and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, central venous pressure, cardiac index, and comorbidities. ResultsWe included 629 patients, median age 53 years, of whom 77% were men. During a median follow-up of 5 years, 179 (28%) underwent advanced HF therapy. The highest level of education was associated with higher rates (high vs. low, adjusted HR 1.81 95% CI 1.14-2.89, p = 0.01), whereas household income quartile groups (Q4 vs. Q1, adjusted HR 1.37 95% CI 0.76-2.47, p=0.30) or groups of combined socioeconomic deprivation (high vs. low degree of deprivation, adjusted HR 0.86 95% CI 0.50-1.46, p = 0.56) were not significantly associated with rates of advanced HF therapy. ConclusionsPatients with a lower level of education might be disfavored for advanced HF therapies and could require specific attention in the advanced HF care center.

Stereotactic body radiotherapy for oligoprogression with or without switch of systemic therapy

BackgroundOligoprogression is defined as cancer progression of a limited number of metastases under active systemic therapy. The role of metastasis-directed therapy, using stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), is controversial as is the continuation versus switch of systemic therapy. We report outcomes of oligoprogressive patients after SBRT, and compare those patients that continued or switched their current line of systemic therapy. Material/Methods.We included patients who developed up to 5 progressive extracranial metastases under systemic therapy for any solid organ malignancy and were treated with SBRT to all lesions at our institution between 01/2014 and 12/2019. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the interval to the next systemic therapy line determined using cumulative incidence functions. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to analyze the influence of baseline and post-progression variables on OS, PFS and survival with the next systemic therapy after SBRT. ResultsAmong 135 patients with oligoprogressive disease of which the most common primary tumor was lung cancer (n = 46, 34.1 %), 96 continued their current line of systemic therapy after oligoprogression. Among 39 who switched systemic therapy, 28 (71.8 %) paused or discontinued, while 11 (28.2 %) immediately started another systemic treatment. After a median follow-up of 27.2 months, patients that switched and those who continued systemic therapy after oligoprogression had comparable median OS (32.1 vs. 38.2 months, p = 0.47) and PFS (4.3 vs. 3.4 months, p = 0.6). The intervals to the next systemic therapy line were comparable between both cohorts (p = 0.6). An ECOG performance status of 2 and immediately starting a new systemic therapy after oligoprogression were associated with a poorer survival without next systemic therapy, while the de-novo OMD state was associated with better survival without next systemic therapy compared to the induced state. ConclusionOncological outcomes of patients that continued or switched systemic therapy after SBRT for oligoprogression were comparable, potentially indicating that further lines of treatment may be safely delayed in selected cases.

Blood neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio is associated with 90-day mortality and 60-day readmission in Gram negative bacteremia: a multi-center cohort study

IntroductionThe Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) in blood has demonstrated its capability to predict bacteremia in emergency departments, and its association with mortality has been established in patients with sepsis in intensive care units. However, its potential concerning mortality and readmission in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia (GNB) is unexplored.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included patients with GNB between 2018 and 2022 from six hospitals in the Capital Region of Denmark. Patients who were immunosuppressed or had missing NLR values on the day of blood culture were excluded. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the association between NLR levels and 90-day all-cause mortality, while the logit link interpretation of the cumulative incidence function was used to assess the association between NLR levels and 60-day readmission. Associations were quantified as odds ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsThe study included 1763 patients with a median age was 76.8 years and 51.3% were female. The median NLR was 17.3 and 15.8% of patients had a quick sequential organ failure assessment score of two or three. Urinary tract infection (UTI) was the most frequent focus and Escherichia coli the most frequent pathogen. Statistically significant differences in median NLR were found by age group and pathogen, and for patients with or without hypertension, liver disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, and alcohol abuse. 378 patients (21.4%) died before 90 days. 526 (29.8%) patients were readmitted to the hospital within 60 days. For each doubling of the NLR, the OR for all-cause 90-day mortality was 1.15 (95% CI, 1.04–1.27) and 1.12 (95% CI, 1.02–1.24) for 60-day readmission. Analysis of subgroups did not show statistically significant differences between groups in relation to the association between NLR and mortality. The discriminatory ability of NLR for mortality was limited and comparable to blood neutrophil or lymphocyte count, producing receiver operating characteristic curves with an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI, 0.56–0.63), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.56–0.65) and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.49–0.56), respectively.ConclusionBlood neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio was associated with 90-day all-cause mortality and 60-day readmission in patients with GNB. However, the ratio has limited ability in predicting mortality or readmission.

Асциминиб у больных хроническим миелолейкозом, не имеющих альтернативных методов лечения: результаты исследования в рамках программы расширенного доступа МАР (Managed Access Program, NCT04360005) в России

Aim. To assess the efficacy and tolerability of asciminib in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients after failure of ≥ 2 lines of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) therapy under the МАР (Managed Access Program, NCT04360005) in Russia. Materials &amp; Methods. The study enrolled 68 patients with Ph-positive CML chronic phase (CF), over 18 years of age, after failure of ≥ 2 lines of TKI therapy. The analysis was conducted on data from 50 patients who were followed-up for at least 3 months and did not undergo allo-HSCT. Dosing regimens were prescribed depending on T315I mutation. Asciminib 200 mg per os was administered twice a day to 20 patients with this mutation, and asciminib 40 mg per os was administered twice a day to 30 patients without this mutation. By the time of admission into the MAP, there were 42 (82 %) CF CML patients as well as 8 patients with second CF after accelerated phase (AF, n = 7) and myeloid blast crisis (BC, n = 1). None of them could be treated with any therapeutic alternative. 92 % of patients had received ≥ 3 lines of prior TKI therapy. Overall survival (OS) and discontinuation-free survival were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used to calculate the probability of achieving response. Multivariate analysis was based on Cox regression model. Results. The median asciminib treatment duration was 11 months (range 4–30 months). The probable 2-year OS was 96 %. After 12 and 24 months, discontinuation-free survival was 92 % and 70 %, respectively. On asciminib therapy, complete cytogenetic (CCyR/МR2), major molecular (MMR), and deep molecular (MR4) responses were achieved in 17 (42 %), 14 (30 %), and 9 (19 %) patients who had not responded to prior treatment at the point of enrollment. After completing the 12- and 24-month therapy, the probability of CCyR/МR2 achievement was 44 % and 62 %, that of MMR achievement was 32 % and 40 %, and that of MR4 achievement was 26 % and 37 %, respectively. The patients treated with different doses did not significantly differ in achieving either CCyR/МR2 or MMR. By multivariate analysis, the independently significant factor impacting the probability of achieving MMR on asciminib treatment was the best MR (BCR::ABL1 &lt; 1 % vs. 1–10 % vs. ≥ 10 %) after prior TKI therapy (hazard ratio 7.5873; p = 0.0072). In 22 (44 %) patients, adverse events (AEs) of all grades were observed, and 8 (16 %) patients showed AEs grade 3/4 (predominantly thrombocythemia and neutropenia). None of the patients discontinued asciminib treatment due to AEs. Conclusion. Asciminib demonstrated highly promising efficacy in previously TKI-treated patients with T315I mutation (200 mg BID) and without it (40 mg BID). Asciminib can be regarded as therapeutic option after failure of other TKIs. Different doses of asciminib were equally well tolerated, which makes it applicable for patients with intolerance to other TKIs and also provides ground for considering dose increases in non-responders. Good prospects are also expected for studying asciminib efficacy at earlier treatment stages (in first or second lines) as well as in combination with ATP-binding TKIs in CML patients with insufficient response to TKI treatment.

Osteoporotic fracture risk in women with breast cancer treated with aromatase inhibitors: a health insurance claims database study in Japan

ABSTRACT Background Hormone therapy with aromatase inhibitors (AIs) for estrogen receptor-dependent breast cancer may expose patients to an increased osteoporosis risk. This study was performed to estimate fracture risk in women with breast cancer to whom AIs were prescribed in Japan. Methods This retrospective study used data from the Japanese Medical Data Vision database. Women with breast cancer prescribed AIs over a 12-month period were identified and matched to women not prescribed AIs using a propensity score. Fracture rates were estimated by a cumulative incidence function and compared using a cause-specific Cox hazard model. The proportion of women undergoing bone density tests was retrieved. Results For all fractures sites combined, cumulative fracture incidence at 10 years was 0.19 [95%CI: 0.16–0.22] in women prescribed AIs and 0.18 [95%CI: 0.15–0.21] without AIs. AI prescription was not associated with any changes in risk (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.08 [95%CI: 0.99–1.17] p = 0.08). Women prescribed AI more frequently underwent bone density testing (31.9% [95% CI: 31.2%; 32.6%] versus 2.2% [95% CI: 2.0%; 2.4%]). Conclusions The anticipated association between AI exposure and osteoporotic fracture risk in Japanese women with breast cancer was not seen clearly.

Incidence of late recurrence and second primary cancers 5-10 years after non-metastatic colorectal cancer.

The fraction of patients who are cancer-free survivors 5 years after curative-intended surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) is increasing, suggesting that extending surveillance beyond 5 years may be indicated. Here we estimate the incidence of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancers 5-10 years postoperative. All patients resected for UICC stage I-III CRC in Denmark through 2004-2013 were identified. Through individual-level linkage of nationwide health registry data, recurrence status was determined using a validated algorithm. Cancer-free survivors 5 years after surgery, were included. Cumulative incidence functions (CIF) of late recurrence, metachronous CRC, and second primary cancer 5-10 years postoperative were constructed. Subdistribution hazards ratios (sHR) were computed using Fine-Gray regression. Among 8883 patients, 370 developed late recurrence (5-10-year CIF = 4.1%, 95%CI: 3.7%-4.6%), 270 metachronous CRC (5-10-year CIF = 3.0%, 95%CI: 2.7%-3.4%), and 635 a second primary cancer (5-10-year CIF = 7.2%, 95%CI: 6.7%-7.7%). The risk of late recurrence was reduced for patients operated in 2009-2013 compared to 2004-2008 (2.9% vs. 5.6%, sHR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.42-0.65). The risk of metachronous CRC was likewise reduced from 4.1% to 2.1% (sHR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.39-0.65). While the risk of second primary cancer did not change between 2009-2013 and 2004-2008 (7.1% vs. 7.1%, sHR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.84-1.15). Using nation-wide 10-year follow-up data, we document that the incidences of late recurrence and metachronous CRC are low and decreasing from 2004 to 2013. Thus, despite increasing numbers of long-term cancer survivors, the data do not advocate for extending CRC-specific surveillance beyond 5 years.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting cardiovascular mortality risk for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in children, adolescents, and adults.

This study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting cardiovascular mortality (CVM) for child, adolescent, and adult patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Patients with only one primary tumor of DLBCL first diagnosed between 2000 and 2019 in the SEER database were extracted. We used the cumulative incidence function (CIF) to evaluate the cumulative rate of CVM. The outcome of interest was CVM, which was analyzed using a competing risk model, accounting for death due to other causes. The total database was randomly divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Adjustments were for demographics, tumor characteristics, and treatment modalities. Nomograms were constructed according to these risk factors to predict CVM risk at 5, 10, and 15 years. Validation included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, time-dependent ROC, C-index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. One hundred four thousand six hundred six patients following initial diagnosis of DLBCL were included (58.3% male, median age 64 years, range 0-80, White 83.98%). Among them, 5.02% died of CVM, with a median follow-up time of 61 (31-98) months. Nomograms based on the seven risk factors (age at diagnosis, gender, race, tumor grade, Ann Arbor stage, radiation, chemotherapy) with hazard ratios ranging from 0.19-1.17 showed excellent discrimination, and calibration plots demonstrated satisfactory prediction. The 5-, 10-, and 15-year AUC and C-index of CVM in the training set were 0.716 (0.714-0.718), 0.713 (0.711-0.715), 0.706 (0.704-0.708), 0.731, 0.727, and 0.719; the corresponding figures for the validation set were 0.705 (0.688-0.722), 0.704 (0.689-0.718), 0.707 (0.693-0.722), 0.698, 0.698, and 0.699. Decision curve analysis revealed a clinically beneficial net benefit. We first built the nomogram model for DLBCL patients with satisfactory prediction and excellent discrimination, which might play an essential role in helping physicians enact better treatment strategies at the time of initial diagnosis.

Development of an anxiety disorder following an emergency department visit due to cannabis use: a population-based cohort study

There is ongoing uncertainty about whether cannabis use increases the risk of developing an anxiety disorder. In this study we estimated the risk of having an incident healthcare visit for an anxiety disorder following an emergency department (ED) visit for cannabis use and explored factors associated with increased risk. We used health administrative data to perform a population-based cohort study of all individuals aged 10-105 years with no previous healthcare visits for anxiety disorders in Ontario, Canada, between January 2008 and March 2019. We compared the risk of having an incident healthcare visit for an anxiety disorder in the ED or hospital (primary analysis) or additionally in an outpatient setting (secondary analysis) for individuals with an incident ED visit for cannabis to members of the general population using cumulative incidence functions and cause-specific hazard models adjusted for relevant confounders. Our study included 12,099,144 individuals aged 10-105 without prior care for an anxiety disorder in the ED or hospital, of which 34,822 (0.29%) had an incident ED visit due to cannabis. Within 3-years of an incident ED visit due to cannabis, 12.3% (n=4294) of individuals had an incident ED visit or hospitalization for an anxiety disorder-a 3.7-fold (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] 3.69 95% CI 3.57-3.82) increased risk relative to the general population (1.2%). In secondary analysis, further excluding individuals with prior outpatient care for anxiety disorders, 23.6% of individuals with an ED visit due to cannabis had an incident outpatient visit, ED visit, or hospitalization for an anxiety disorder within 3-years compared to 5.6% of individuals in the general population (aHR 3.88 95% CI 3.77-2.99). The risk of having an incident healthcare visit for an anxiety disorder was higher in individuals with ED visits for cannabis use compared to the general population across all age and sex strata. However, younger males with ED visits for cannabis use (aHR 5.67 95% CI 5.19-6.21) had a greater risk relative to the general population than younger women with cannabis use (aHR 3.22 95% CI 2.95-3.52). ED visits for cannabis use were associated with an increased risk of having an incident healthcare visit for an anxiety disorder, particularly in young males. These findings have important clinical and policy implications given the increasing use of cannabis over time and trend towards legalization of cannabis. Canadian Institutes for Health Research.

Competitive Risk Analysis of Prognosis in Older Adults with Sigmoid Colon Adenocarcinoma: A Population-Based Study.

The purpose of this study is to employ a competing risk model based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to identify prognostic factors for elderly individuals with sigmoid colon adenocarcinoma (SCA) and compare them with the classic Cox proportional hazards model. We extracted data from elderly patients diagnosed with SCA registered in the SEER database between 2010 and 2015. Univariate analysis was conducted using cumulative incidence functions and Gray's test, while multivariate analysis was performed using both the Fine-Gray and Cox proportional hazards models. Among the 10,712 eligible elderly patients diagnosed with SCA, 5595 individuals passed away: 2987 due to sigmoid colon adenocarcinoma and 2608 from other causes. The results of one-way Gray's test showed that age, race, marital status, AJCC stage, differentiation grade, tumor size, surgical status, liver metastasis status, lung metastasis status, brain metastasis status, radiotherapy status, and chemotherapy status all affected the prognosis of SCA (P < .05). Multivariate analysis showed that sex, age, race, marital status, and surgical status affected the prognosis of SCA (P < .05). Multifactorial Fine-Gray analysis revealed that key factors influencing the prognosis of SCA patients include age, race, marital status, AJCC stage, grade classification, surgical status, tumor size, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, and chemotherapy status (P < .05). Data from the SEER database were used to more accurately estimate CIFs for sigmoid colon adenocarcinoma-specific mortality and prognostic factors using competing risk models.

Intraoperative Radiation Therapy for Relapsed or Refractory High-Risk Neuroblastoma: A 27-Year Experience

To evaluate outcomes after intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) in high-risk neuroblastoma (NB), including local control, overall survival, and toxicity. This was a single institution retrospective study of 92 pediatric patients with NB treated with IORT from 1995 to 2022. Each IORT application was considered a separate event for a total of 110 sites treated. Local failure was calculated using the cumulative incidence function and survival by Kaplan-Meier method from the day of surgery. All patients had high-risk relapsed or treatment refractory disease. Median age was 6 years (range, 2-34 years). Median follow-up for all patients and surviving patients was 16 months and 4 years, respectively. All patients previously received chemotherapy, 93% had prior external beam radiation therapy to the site of IORT (median dose, 21.6 Gy; range, 10-36 Gy), and 94% had a prior surgery for tumor resection. The median IORT dose was 12 Gy (range, 8-18 Gy) and median area treated was 18 cm2 (range, 2.5-60 cm2). The cumulative incidence of local failure was 23% at 2 years and 29% at 5 years. The overall survival (OS) was 44% at 2 years and 29% at 5 years. Local failure after IORT was associated with worse OS (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.07-2.84; P = .0267). Toxicity from IORT was rare, with postoperative complications likely related to IORT seen in 7 (8%) patients. Our study represents the largest, most recent analysis of the efficacy and safety of IORT in patients with relapsed or refractory NB. Less than one-third of patients failed locally at 5 years, and achieving local control affected overall survival. Minimal toxicities directly related to IORT were observed. Overall, IORT is an effective and safe technique to achieve local control in high-risk relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma.

Efficient estimation for left-truncated competing risks regression for case-cohort studies.

The case-cohort study design provides a cost-effective study design for a large cohort study with competing risk outcomes. The proportional subdistribution hazards model is widely used to estimate direct covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function for competing risk data. In biomedical studies, left truncation often occurs and brings extra challenges to the analysis. Existing inverse probability weighting methods for case-cohort studies with competing risk data not only have not addressed left truncation, but also are inefficient in regression parameter estimation for fully observed covariates. We propose an augmented inverse probability-weighted estimating equationfor left-truncated competing risk data to address these limitations of the current literature. We further propose a more efficient estimator when extra information from the other causes is available. The proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimator is unbiased and leads to estimation efficiency gain in the regression parameter estimation. We analyze the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study data using the proposed methods.