Cryospheric Changes Research Articles

Land surface temperature trends derived from Landsat imagery in the Swiss Alps

Abstract. The warming of high mountain regions caused by climate change is leading to glacier retreat, decreasing snow cover, and thawing permafrost, all of which have far-reaching effects on ecosystems and societies. Landsat Collection 2 provides multi-decadal land surface temperature (LST) data, principally suited for large-scale monitoring at high spatial resolution. In this study, we assess the potential to extract LST trends using Landsat 5, 7, and 8 time series. We conduct a comprehensive comparison of both LST and LST trends with data from 119 ground stations of the Intercantonal Measurement and Information System (IMIS) network, located at high elevations in the Swiss Alps. The direct comparison of Landsat and IMIS LST yields robust satellite data with a mean accuracy and precision of 0.26 and 4.68 K, respectively. For LST trends derived from a 22.6-year record length, as imposed by the IMIS data, we obtain a mean accuracy and precision of −0.02 and 0.13 K yr−1, respectively. However, we find that Landsat LST trends are biased due to unstable diurnal acquisition times, especially for Landsat 5 and 7. Consequently, LST trend maps derived from 38.5-year Landsat data exhibit systematic variations with topographic slope and aspect that we attribute to changes in direct shortwave radiation between different acquisition times. We discuss the origin of the magnitude and spatial variation of the LST trend bias in comparison with modeled changes in direct shortwave radiation and propose a simple approach to estimate the LST trend bias. After correcting for the LST trend bias, the remaining LST trend values average between 0.07 and 0.10 K yr−1. Furthermore, the comparison of Landsat- and IMIS-derived LST trends suggests the existence of a clear-sky bias, with an average value of 0.027 K yr−1. Despite these challenges, we conclude that Landsat LST data offer valuable high-resolution records of spatial and temporal LST variations in mountainous terrain. In particular, changes in the mountain cryosphere, such as glacier retreat, glacier debris cover evolution, and changes in snow cover, are preserved in the LST trends and potentially contribute to improved prediction of permafrost temperatures with large spatial coverage. Our study highlights the significance of understanding and addressing biases in LST trends for reliable monitoring in such challenging terrains.

Cryospheric changes and livelihood vulnerability in Lahaul Region of North-Western Himalaya, India

Cryospheric changes and livelihood vulnerability in Lahaul Region of North-Western Himalaya, India

Temporal and spatial variation in subsurface cryosphere in East Coprates Planum, Mars

There is general acceptance among researchers regarding the presence of a cryosphere in the subsurface of Mars. The two main geomorphic indications assumed to support the existence of this cryospheric layer are layered ejecta rampart craters and outflow channels. In essence, a layered ejecta rampart crater is a crater with an ejecta blanket having an asymmetric lobate geometry surrounding it. While there are no outflow channels in the East Coprates Planum, which is located within Mars’ equatorial region, it does have a population of layered ejecta rampart craters. Therefore, these craters are the only avenues to study the local cryospheric level at the time of impacts which likely led to their formation. Identification, mapping and dating of Single Layered Ejecta craters (SLE) and Multiple Layered Ejecta craters (MLE), the two types of layered ejecta rampart crater present in East Coprates Planum, was integral to this study. Excavation depths (with respect to the areoid) and ages for each crater was estimated. Statistical surfaces for SLE and MLE craters were drawn to assess the control of local topography on the local cryosphere. It has been estimated, by comparing excavation depths of SLEs and MLE with respect to their time of formation, that the bottom layer of the Martian cryosphere in the study area was at lower altitudes (from areoid) prior to ∼2.65 Ga, than it was in ∼0.97 Ga. This indicates a change in the Martian cryosphere over time within the study region, and the analysis of the crater excavation depths indicates that the cryosphere became thinner over time. Also, East Coprates Planum being a lower elevated region may have facilitated a greater inflow of groundwater from surrounding regions as compared to the adjacent higher elevated Thaumasia Minor region.

The impact of cryosphere service change on the social-ecological systems resilience: Evidence from the Qilian Mountains Area in China

Research on changes in cryosphere services is crucial for the responsible management of cryospheric resources and for fostering sustainable development in Social-Ecological Systems (SESs) impacted by the cryosphere. While previous research has primarily focused on quantifying cryospheric change through Cryosphere Service Value (CSV), the impact of cryosphere service change on Social-Ecological Systems Resilience (SESR) remains unclear. This study considers the Qilian Mountains as a cryosphere system and assesses the changes in its service value from 2000 to 2020. It also establishes a framework to analyze the spatial-temporal variations in resilience within the Qilian Mountains Area in China (QMAC) and investigates the impact of changes in cryosphere services on SESR. The findings indicate that (1) the CSV exhibited a decreasing trend followed by an increase from 2000 to 2020, with minor increases observed in the three northern inland river basins and substantial increases in other areas; (2) the resilience in QMAC improved consistently, establishing a spatial pattern characterized by higher resilience in the west and lower resilience in the east, as well as higher resilience in the north and lower resilience in the south; (3) the effects of changes in cryosphere services on SESR demonstrate significant spatial-temporal patterns, the decline in climate regulation service has a notably negative impact on ecological resilience, while the increase in value from aesthetic appreciation and tourism service positively boosts economic resilience; and (4) changes in cryosphere services affect social resilience by influencing residents’ livelihoods, with more pronounced effects on SESs in areas with high land use intensity. This research provides a research avenue for examining how cryosphere service change impacts SESR and offers practical experience for promoting the stability of SESs and developing sustainable development policies in regions affected by the global high-mountain cryosphere amid climate change.

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2–5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.

Warming-induced cryosphere changes predict drier Andean eco-regions

Warming-induced cryosphere changes predict drier Andean eco-regions

Projected future changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of a mountainous catchment in the upper Heihe River, China

Abstract. Climate warming exacerbates the degradation of the mountain cryosphere, including glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and snow cover reduction. These changes dramatically alter the local and downstream hydrological regime, posing significant threats to basin-scale water resource management and sustainable development. However, this issue is still not adequately addressed, particularly in mountainous catchments. We developed an integrated cryospheric–hydrologic model, the FLEX-Cryo model, to comprehensively consider glaciers, snow cover, and frozen soil and their dynamic impacts on hydrological processes. Taking the mountainous Hulu catchment located in the upper Heihe River of China as a case study, we utilized the state-of-the-art climate change projection data under two scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to simulate the future changes in the mountainous cryosphere and their impacts on hydrology. Our findings showed that under the medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), by the end of the 21st century, the glacier will completely melt out around the years 2051 and 2045, respectively. The annual maximum snow water equivalent is projected to decrease by 41.4 % and 46.0 %, while the duration of snow cover will be reduced by approximately 45 and 70 d. The freeze onset of seasonally frozen soil is expected to be delayed by 10 and 22 d, while the thaw onset of permafrost is likely to advance by 19 and 32 d. Moreover, the maximum freeze depth of seasonally frozen soil is projected to decrease by 5.2 and 10.9 cm per decade, and the depth of the active layer will increase by 8.2 and 15.5 cm per decade. Regarding hydrology, catchment total runoff exhibits a decreasing trend, and the tipping point of glacier runoff occurs approximately between 2019 and 2021. Permafrost degradation will likely reduce the duration of low runoff in the early thawing season; the discontinuous baseflow recession gradually transitions into linear recessions, and the baseflow increases. Our results highlight the significant changes expected in the mountainous cryosphere and hydrology in the future. These findings enhance our understanding of cold-region hydrological processes and have the potential to assist local and downstream water resource management in addressing the challenges posed by climate change.

Evaluation of Sentinel-5P TROPOMI Methane Observations at Northern High Latitudes

The Arctic and boreal regions are experiencing a rapid increase in temperature, resulting in a changing cryosphere, increasing human activity, and potentially increasing high-latitude methane emissions. Satellite observations from Sentinel-5P TROPOMI provide an unprecedented coverage of a column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of methane (XCH4) in the Arctic, compared to previous missions or in situ measurements. The purpose of this study is to support and enhance the data used for high-latitude research through presenting a systematic evaluation of TROPOMI methane products derived from two different processing algorithms: the operational product (OPER) and the scientific product (WFMD), including the comparison of recent version changes of the products (OPER, OPER rpro, WFMD v1.2, and WFMD v1.8). One finding is that OPER rpro yields lower XCH4 than WFMD v1.8, the difference increasing towards the highest latitudes. TROPOMI product differences were evaluated with respect to ground-based high-latitude references, including four Fourier Transform Spectrometer in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and five EM27/SUN instruments in the Collaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON). The mean TROPOMI–TCCON GGG2020 daily median XCH4 difference was site-dependent and varied for OPER rpro from −0.47 ppb to 22.4 ppb, and for WFMD v1.8 from 1.2 ppb to 19.4 ppb with standard deviations between 13.0 and 20.4 ppb and 12.5–15.0 ppb, respectively. The TROPOMI–COCCON daily median XCH4 difference varied from −26.5 ppb to 5.6 ppb for OPER rpro, with a standard deviation of 14.0–28.7 ppb, and from −5.0 ppb to 17.2 ppb for WFMD v1.8, with a standard deviation of 11.5–13.0 ppb. Although the accuracy and precision of both TROPOMI products are, on average, good compared to the TCCON and COCCON, a persistent seasonal bias in TROPOMI XCH4 (high values in spring; low values in autumn) is found for OPER rpro and is reflected in the higher standard deviation values. A systematic decrease of about 7 ppb was found between TCCON GGG2014 and GGG2020 product update highlighting the importance of also ensuring the reliability of ground-based retrievals. Comparisons to atmospheric profile measurements with AirCore carried out in Sodankylä, Northern Finland, resulted in XCH4 differences comparable to or smaller than those from ground-based remote sensing.

Patagonian dust, Agulhas Current, and Antarctic ice-rafted debris contributions to the South Atlantic Ocean over the past 150,000 years

Disentangling inputs of aeolian dust, ice-rafted debris (IRD), and eroded continental detritus delivered by ocean currents to marine sediments provide important insights into Earth System processes and climate. This study uses Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios of the continent-derived (lithogenic) fraction in deep-sea core TN057-6 from the subantarctic Southern Ocean southwest of Africa over the past 150,000 y to identify source regions and quantify their relative contributions and fluxes utilizing a mixing model set in a Bayesian framework. The data are compared with proxies from parallel core Ocean Drilling Program Site 1090 and newly presented data from potential South America aeolian dust source areas (PSAs), allowing for an integrated investigation into atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric dynamics. PSA inputs varied on glacial/interglacial timescales, with southern South American sources dominating up to 88% of the lithogenic fraction (mainly Patagonia, which provided up to 68%) during cold periods, while southern African sources were more important during interglacials. During the warmer Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 of the last glacial period, lithogenic fluxes were twice that of colder MIS2 and MIS4 at times, and showed unique isotope ratios best explained by Antarctic-derived IRD, likely from the Weddell Sea. The IRD intrusions contributed up to 41% at times and followed Antarctic millennial warming events that raised temperatures, causing instability of icesheet margins. High IRD was synchronous with increased bioavailable iron, nutrient utilization, high biological productivity, and decreased atmospheric CO2. Overall, TN057-6 sediments record systematic Southern Hemisphere climate shifts and cryospheric changes that impacted biogeochemical cycling on both glacial/interglacial and subglacial timescales.

Orbital‐Scale Global Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures Coupling With Cryosphere‐Carbon Cycle Changes Over the Past 4 Million Years

AbstractChanges in the thermal conditions of the ocean surface, the interface for air‐sea exchange, are critical for understanding global climate and environmental change. Here we explore the evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) and the meridional SST gradient (STG) at orbital timescales since 4 million years ago (Ma), along with interactions between SSTs, the cryosphere, and the global carbon cycle. We observe orbital eccentricity and obliquity influences on SST evolution and infer that SST changes may have played a key role in atmospheric CO2 and cryosphere changes through key climate transitions in the past 4 Ma. We find a major equator‐to‐pole STG increase in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) close to the initiation of major NH glaciation (at ∼2.7 Ma). In addition, we find substantial increases in the obliquity sensitivity (Sobl) of NH STG at ∼2.7 Ma and in Southern Hemisphere (SH) STG at ∼1 Ma, which may be responses to important expansions of NH and SH ice sheets, respectively. Phase analysis shows that SST changes typically lead global ice volume changes throughout the last 4 Ma. SST changes also lead atmospheric CO2 changes since ∼1.5 Ma, which indicates that SST changes either drove, or directly reflect, processes that changed ocean‐atmosphere carbon exchange and, thus, atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Overall, our study emphasizes that SST changes were a critical component of climate change throughout the last 4 Ma.

Emplacing Ecological Grief in Last Chance Tourism: Cryospheric Change and Travel in the Arctic

Last Chance Tourism (LCT) is an increasingly popular phenomenon whereby tourists seek encounters with vanishing landscapes, cultures, and endangered species. However, there are concerns that it is not sufficiently ecologically informed, has a large carbon footprint, and may put further pressure on vulnerable ecosystems and communities. This review specifically focuses on the Arctic, which is a major global frontier for LCT and is at the forefront of disruptive and accelerating climate change. It draws on theoretical insights from the Ecological Grief concept to chart a new research focus as well as a pathway to share empathy, concern, and sorrow between scientists, communities, and visitors. Key literature sources on LCT and Ecological Grief were selected from major international scientific journals and monographs. The major findings of the study are (i) the Arctic cryosphere is a life-sustaining entity and disruptive changes in its mechanisms currently threaten the unique ecologies and culture of the region and (ii) LCT must be attentive to the emotive accounts of loss and grief associated with cryospheric change and emplace both human and non-human voices in the narrative. These findings are relevant for LCT researchers, tourism planners, and conscious travelers in the Arctic who prioritize destination sustainability.

Reconstructing Glacier Surge Kinematics Using a Numerical Ice‐Flow Model Applied to the Dusty Glacier, St. Elias Mountains, Canada

AbstractLong‐term records of the flow patterns and dynamics of surge‐type glaciers improve our understanding of their underlying dynamic processes, and are critical to better resolve their contribution to a changing cryosphere. We adapt a modeling approach designed to emulate glacier surging and fold kinematics using the full Stokes ice‐flow model Elmer/Ice to simulate surging of the Dusty Glacier, located in the St. Elias Mountains, Canada. We combine distributed mass‐balance and numerical ice‐flow models to reconstruct the fold kinematics of the 2001–2003 surge of the Dusty Glacier by comparing model results to Landsat‐7 and Sentinel‐2 imagery, and assess the sensitivity of centennial‐scale modeled glacier structure to different mass balance and sliding parameterizations. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using the approach to reconstruct the surface structure kinematics of a surge‐type glacier in nature, highlighting its potential application to other surge‐type glaciers and regions.

Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Cryosphere in High Mountain Asia: A Multidisciplinary Review

Over the past decades, the cryosphere has changed significantly in High Mountain Asia (HMA), leading to multiple natural hazards such as rock–ice avalanches, glacier collapse, debris flows, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Monitoring cryosphere change and evaluating its hydrological effects are essential for studying climate change, the hydrological cycle, water resource management, and natural disaster mitigation and prevention. However, knowledge gaps, data uncertainties, and other substantial challenges limit comprehensive research in climate–cryosphere–hydrology–hazard systems. To address this, we provide an up-to-date, comprehensive, multidisciplinary review of remote sensing techniques in cryosphere studies, demonstrating primary methodologies for delineating glaciers and measuring geodetic glacier mass balance change, glacier thickness, glacier motion or ice velocity, snow extent and water equivalent, frozen ground or frozen soil, lake ice, and glacier-related hazards. The principal results and data achievements are summarized, including URL links for available products and related data platforms. We then describe the main challenges for cryosphere monitoring using satellite-based datasets. Among these challenges, the most significant limitations in accurate data inversion from remotely sensed data are attributed to the high uncertainties and inconsistent estimations due to rough terrain, the various techniques employed, data variability across the same regions (e.g., glacier mass balance change, snow depth retrieval, and the active layer thickness of frozen ground), and poor-quality optical images due to cloudy weather. The paucity of ground observations and validations with few long-term, continuous datasets also limits the utilization of satellite-based cryosphere studies and large-scale hydrological models. Lastly, we address potential breakthroughs in future studies, i.e., (1) outlining debris-covered glacier margins explicitly involving glacier areas in rough mountain shadows, (2) developing highly accurate snow depth retrieval methods by establishing a microwave emission model of snowpack in mountainous regions, (3) advancing techniques for subsurface complex freeze–thaw process observations from space, (4) filling knowledge gaps on scattering mechanisms varying with surface features (e.g., lake ice thickness and varying snow features on lake ice), and (5) improving and cross-verifying the data retrieval accuracy by combining different remote sensing techniques and physical models using machine learning methods and assimilation of multiple high-temporal-resolution datasets from multiple platforms. This comprehensive, multidisciplinary review highlights cryospheric studies incorporating spaceborne observations and hydrological models from diversified techniques/methodologies (e.g., multi-spectral optical data with thermal bands, SAR, InSAR, passive microwave, and altimetry), providing a valuable reference for what scientists have achieved in cryosphere change research and its hydrological effects on the Third Pole.

High-resolution physicochemical dataset of atmospheric aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surroundings has attracted significant scientific interest in recent decades due to its notable impacts on regional climatic and cryospheric changes, ecological and environmental security, and the hydrological cycle. However, our understanding of the atmospheric aerosol in this remote region is highly limited by the scarcity of available datasets owing to the extremely harsh natural conditions. This challenge has been mitigated in recent decades by establishing field observatories at typical sites within the TP and its surroundings. A continuous project initiated in 2015 aims to explore the properties and sources of atmospheric aerosols, as well as their regional differences, through multiple short-term intensive observations obtained across this vast region utilizing a suite of high-time-resolution online instruments. This paper presents a systematic and hourly scale dataset of aerosol physicochemical and optical properties at eight sites across the TP and its surroundings that is derived from the project. It includes size-resolved chemical compositions of submicron aerosols, high-resolution mass spectra and sources of organic aerosols, size distributions of particle number concentrations, particle light-scattering and light-absorption coefficients, particle light absorptions attributed to different carbonaceous substances including black carbon and brown carbon, and number concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei. In brief, atmospheric aerosols in these remote sites were all well mixed and highly aged, reflecting their dominant regional transport sources. However, the southern TP region exhibited high contributions of carbonaceous organic aerosols, neutralized bulk submicron aerosols, and a relatively high light-absorption capacity, whereas in the northern TP region, secondary inorganic species were the main contributors to the overall acidic submicron aerosols. Beyond providing insights into the regional differences in aerosol sources and properties across the TP and its surroundings, the datasets will also benefit simulations of aerosol radiative forcing and evaluations of interactions among different Earth system components in numerical models for this region. The datasets are accessible through the National Cryosphere Desert Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://doi.org/10.12072/ncdc.NIEER.db2200.2022; Xu, 2022).

Contemporary movement of rock glaciers in the La Sal and Uinta Mountains, Utah, USA

Rock glaciers are common landforms in mountainous areas of the western US. The motion of active rock glaciers is a key indicator of ice content, offering connections to climate and hydrologic systems. Here, we quantified the movement of six rock glaciers in the La Sal and Uinta Mountains of Utah through repeat differential GPS surveying. Networks of 10–41 points on each rock glacier were surveyed in September 2021; July 2022; September 2022; and July 2023. We found that all features are moving with average annual rates of motion from 1.5 ± 0.8 to 18.5 ± 7.5 cm/yr. Rock glaciers move up to 3× faster in the summer than in the winter, and rates of motion were greater in 2023 after a winter with above-average snowfall, emphasizing the role of liquid water availability. Velocities of individual points in the winter of 2021–22 are positively correlated with velocities during the winter of 2022–23, suggesting that spatial variability of motion is not stochastic, but rather reflects internal properties of each rock glacier. Bottom temperature of snow measurements during winter, and the temperature of springs discharging water in summer, suggest that these rock glaciers contain modern permafrost. Radiocarbon data document advance of one rock glacier during the Little Ice Age. Our GPS dataset reveals complicated patterns of rock glacier movement, and the network of survey points we established will be a valuable baseline for detecting future cryosphere change in these mountains.

Vulnerability assessment and analysis of cryosphere changes in the Western Sichuan Plateau

ABSTRACT A vulnerability assessment model and indicator system for the changes in the cryosphere in the Western Sichuan Plateau are constructed based on the “exposure–sensitivity–adaptive capacity” framework. The model aims to capture the multiple characteristics of vulnerability to cryosphere changes in the region by selecting influencing factors from three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Furthermore, the study explores the interrelationships among vulnerability dimensions and employs geographical detectors to analyze the driving mechanisms of vulnerability. The ultimate goal is to provide a scientific and rational basis for developing effective adaptation strategies to prevent and mitigate cryosphere-related disasters in the area. The main findings are as follows: (1) The vulnerability to cryosphere changes in the Western Sichuan Plateau exhibits a distribution pattern characterized by higher vulnerability in the west and lower vulnerability in the east. (2) There is a significant correlation between vulnerability and geographical location, characterized by two types of distribution patterns: high–high aggregation and low–low aggregation. The aggregation patterns are relatively stable but exhibit spatial heterogeneity. (3) The vulnerability to cryosphere changes in the Western Sichuan Plateau is the combined result of natural geographical conditions, socioeconomic development levels, and other factors.

Editorial: Cryospheric changes in Eurasian water towers: cloud-platform-aided mapping, monitoring, and model-prediction

Editorial: Cryospheric changes in Eurasian water towers: cloud-platform-aided mapping, monitoring, and model-prediction

Coupled Changes in the Arctic Carbon Cycle Between the Land, Marine, and Social Domains

AbstractThe Arctic has experienced rapid change associated with warming since the 1970s. The rapid retreat of the terrestrial cryosphere can release a large amount greenhouse gas from the permafrost regions into the air, and the sea ice decline will affect the CO2 and CH4 balance in the ocean. Changes in the Arctic provide feedback mechanisms that can also impinge on the global ocean’s thermohaline circulation. During the past years, the overall natural processes in the Arctic have been studied although the magnitude and timing of carbon release from the cryosphere changes require further investigation. However, few studies have been conducted to link the natural and social systems in the Arctic. Scientists and policymakers must consider the coupled Arctic land, ocean, and social systems in their decisions for coping with climate change.

Cryosphere changes and their impacts on regional water resources in the Chinese Altai Mountains from 2000 to 2021

The cryosphere has an important impact on regional water resources and ecosystems in the Chinese Altai Mountains and its piedmont zone. Using the latest remote-sensing datasets of cryosphere changes and combining with in-situ observation data from glacier monitoring stations and snow cover surveys, the main cryosphere elements including glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost are investigated with emphasis on their changes since 2000 and the current situation. Their water resource effects are also discussed. The results indicate that although the glaciers in the region have experienced continuous and intensive melting, mass loss has slowed because both glacier area shrinkage and thickness reduction were larger during 2000–2010 than during 2010–2021. Snow-cover water equivalent (w.e.) has increased due to obvious increases in snow depth, although snow-cover area has decreased slightly. Permafrost has been degrading. Overall, cryosphere contributions to the regional water resource are approximately 40.9% since 2000, among which snow-cover melting is the largest, contributing 37.1% to water resources in the Irtysh River Basin and significantly more in the mountainous sub-basins with increased snowfall. Glacier melting contributes 2.9%∼3.4%, lower than earlier estimations of 3.4%∼3.6% for the late 20th century. Permafrost thaw caused by active layer thickening contributes approximately 0.59%. Meteorological data shows a warming and wetting trend, but summer temperature has a much lower increase rate and a slowing increase trend after 2013. Moreover, snowfall frequency has increased. In the future, glacier water resource contribution will continue to decrease, but the water resource effects of snow-cover melting and permafrost degradation would increase.

Validation and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surface Net Radiation from CRA/Land and ERA5-Land over the Tibetan Plateau

High spatial–temporal resolution surface net radiation (RN) data are of great significance to the study of climate, ecology, hydrology and cryosphere changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), but the verification of the surface net radiation products on the plateau is not sufficient. In this study, the China Meteorological Administration Global Land Surface Reanalysis Products (CRA/Land) and ECMWF Land Surface Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5-Land) RN data were validated using ground measurements at daily and monthly time scales, and the spatiotemporal patterns were also analyzed. The results indicate the following: (1) CRA/Land overestimated while ERA5-Land underestimated RN, but CRA/Land RN outperformed ERA5-Land in observations at the daily and monthly scale. (2) The CRA/Land RN data had a larger error in the central part and a smaller error in the northeast of the TP, while ERA5-Land showed the opposite. (3) The spatial patterns of RN revealed by CRA/Land and ERA5-Land data showed differences in most regions. The CRA/Land data showed that the RN of the TP had a downward trend during 2000 and 2020 with a slope of −0.112 W·m−2/a, while the ERA5-Land data indicated an upward trend with a change rate of 0.016 W·m−2/a. (4) Downwelling shortwave radiation (DSR), upwelling shortwave radiation (USR), downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) and upwelling longwave radiation (ULR) are the four components of RN, and the evaluation results indicate that the DSR, DLR and ULR recorded via CRA/Land and ERA5-Land are consistent with the observed data, but the consistency between the USR recorded via CRA/Land and ERA5-Land and the observed data is poor. (5) The inconsistency of the USR data is the main reason for the large differences in the spatiotemporal distribution of CRA/Land and ERA5-Land RN data across the TP.