Crude Oil Sales Research Articles

Modeling and Forecasting Crude Oil Prices in Nigeria Using ARIMA: A Time Series Analysis from 2013-2022

Study’s Excerpt/Novelty This study employs the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model to forecast crude oil prices in Nigeria from 2013 to 2022, identifying the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model as the most suitable based on AIC, BIC, and HQIC criteria. The findings emphasize the model’s adequacy for short-term price forecasting but highlight its limitations, particularly its sensitivity to non-stationary data. The study recommends incorporating macroeconomic variables or hybrid models for more accurate long-term predictions, while urging Nigerian oil sector stakeholders to explore alternatives like Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to mitigate revenue losses from declining crude oil sales. Full Abstract This study utilizes Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling to forecast crude oil prices in Nigeria from 2013 to 2022. The data, sourced from the CBN statistical bulletin, revealed non-stationarity, corrected by first differencing. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was identified as the most suitable based on AIC, BIC, and HQIC criteria, providing significant information on short-term price forecasting and model adequacy. The study concludes that while ARIMA models are effective for short-term forecasting, their limitations, such as sensitivity to non-stationary data, suggest that future research should incorporate macroeconomic variables or hybrid models for improved accuracy. It was recommended that stakeholders in the Nigerian oil sector should explore other avenues in the sector, such as Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG), in order to absorb the decrease in revenue as a result of the decline in revenue from crude oil prices and sales.

International financial institutions and the development of Nigeria

The study investigated the existing relationship between International Financial Institutions concerning the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, African Development Bank, and the development of Nigeria. The historical design was used to organize and analyze secondary data derived from books, articles, official journals of international financial institutions, government/official documents and internet sources related to the problem of the study. The study adopted the Modernization theory of development as its theoretical framework in explaining Nigeria's development from the perspective of her affiliation with the international financial institutions (Bretton Woods Institutions and African Development Bank)'s loan policies and initiatives and their implications for Nigeria's development. The findings revealed that the policies and initiatives of the Bretton Woods Institutions and African Development Bank influenced the Nigeria development project, which has resulted in the constant granting of loans to Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study recommends that the Nigerian government should quickly look inward at other internally generated revenues from custom duties, sales of crude oil, sales of refined crude (Petro), maritime and other agricultural products' revenues and re-channel them towards Nigeria's development instead of wholly depending on loans and otherwise set up independent, as well as strong institutions to oversee and manage funds from foreign loans to avoid mismanagement and diversification that may lead Nigeria into more foreign debts thereby further retarding development in Nigeria.

IMPACT ANALYSIS OF LOSS INDUSTRIAL SECTOR AT PT PERTAMINA PERSERO

The Covid-19 pandemic hampered the company's cash flow and reduced public demand for fuel oil, natural gas, geothermal energy at PT Pertamina Persero that year. It was noted that in 2020 PT Pertamina Persero experienced a rapid decline which resulted in losses. This has an influence on the profit earned by PT Pertamina. This study aims to describe the factors that caused PT Pertamina to experience losses, describe the losses experienced, and describe the role of commissioners in the losses that occurred at PT Pertamina. This research uses the literature study method, this is done because literature sources are obtained from journals, information from print media, research reports, articles, and other sources. The approach in this study uses descriptive qualitative, with the aim of describing and disclosing the phenomena that occur in depth and systematically. Pertamina's losses were caused by the pandemic (Covid-19) and the decline in operating income due to the sale of crude oil, natural gas, heat energy and oil production is experiencing a decline. The Role of the Board of Commissioners Against PT Pertamina's Losses, The Board's duty is to examine the competence of the Company and management, management usually pays attention to the Company and its business activities, advises managers on the company's income. In carrying out the supervisory duties of the board of commissioners and in preparing plans for the benefit of the company,

Revisiting the resource curse in Nigeria: the case of Niger delta

Natural resources endowment is a blessing to the endowed states due to their catalytic development-driving potential. The exploitation of the endowment should result in rapid socio-economic development. However, for most developing states, the blessing of these natural resources strangely tends to turn disadvantageous; a phenomenon that has been distinctly identified in the literature as ‘the resource curse. This paper examines that phenomenon, using Nigeria Niger Delta as a case study given the serious environmental, political and socio-economic challenges occasioned by the country’s exploitation of its oil and gas endowment. The paper further explores efforts made to reverse the trend of the phenomenon in Nigeria and also what could be the most effective means of containing the said problems in light of their implications for the future of the country and its people. The study recommended that that there is a well-planned and coordinated program for socio-infrastructural development across the region. Government should provide the grounds for both the oil companies and the host oil communities to cooperate with each other and ensure compliance of the MOUs signed by the oil companies and the host communities. The amnesty program initiated by late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua should be effectively implemented to avoid the resurgence of militancy and other forms of conflict. Government and the oil companies should guarantee the indigenes that they are a part of the business of crude oil exploration and production in the communities, this will help reduce or possibly stop the issue of regular vandalization of oil pipelines and other facilities of the oil exploration companies. There should be equitable sharing of revenue from the sales of crude oil, particularly by the Federal Government.

A Pemex no contexto da petroleira global: política de investimentos e lições aprendidas

ABSTRACT The article analyzes Pemex’s investment policy for the period 1980-2019, based on the management of other oil companies. The central question is whether in the last four decades, it has been convenient for Pemex to be specialized in oil extraction, while other companies focused on the comprehensive development of the supply chain. The answer is negative. The sale of crude oil and the abandonment of refining made Mexico a net importer of fuels, a trend, which, today, is seeking to be reversed, in an environment of a high fiscal burden and high indebtedness of the company.

Curbing Illicit Financial Flow Risks In Ghana'S Crude Oil Sales : Legal and Other Policy Options

Curbing Illicit Financial Flow Risks In Ghana'S Crude Oil Sales : Legal and Other Policy Options

Asymmetric Effect of Oil Revenue on Economic Performance in Nigeria: A Non-linear ARDL Approach

Depending on the prevailing global or local economic situations, the instability in income from crude oil sales dictate the state of oil exporting economy, such as Nigeria. This is anchored to the fact that considerable proportion of the country’s total revenue comes from the oil sector. Thus, rise (positive change) and fall (negative change) in oil revenue may exert unequal influence on the Nigeria’s economic performance. Based on the foregoing, this research work investigates the asymmetric effect of income from oil on Nigeria’s economic performance between the period 1981 and 2020. The objective is to examine how economic performance reacts severally to rise and fall in oil revenue. Using time series analysis methodology, the study utilizes datasets on real GDP (a proxy for economic performance), oil revenue, exchange rate and inflation rate. The data were sourced from CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicators. The data analysis process includes stationarity test (using ADF test), bounds cointegration test, technique of estimation, using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NADRL) and post estimation tests. The findings reveal that positive change (increase) and negative change (decrease) in oil revenue exert the same direction (positive) but different magnitudes of impact on Nigerian economic performance in the long run. In other words, positive oil revenue change exerts positive impact on economic performance while negative oil revenue change exerts negative impact on economic performance. Essentially, both positive and negative oil revenue changes are real GDP inelastic, however, economic performance responds more to negative change (decrease) in oil revenue than the positive change (increase) in the long-run. Therefore, the study submits that the Nigerian government, through its concerned agencies in the oil sector, should design necessary strategies to curb oil theft such as adopting proactive measures against vandalism. Also, massive diversification into other sectors of the economy must be the government’s paramount consideration.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Volatility Persistence of the Nigerian Crude Oil Price

Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy cannot be overemphasized, especially with Nigeria, which largely depends on crude oil as a major source of her revenue. Thus, investigating COVID-19’s impacts on the volatility persistence of Nigerian crude oil price forms the nucleus of this study. Our modelling framework was based on GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH with two asymmetric innovation distributions Daily price data on the Nigerian crude oil sales (in dollars per barrel), ranging from 4th Jan., 2010 to 27th May, 2021, were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). To capture the impact of the pandemic, the data were divided into two periods, before Covid-19 was proscribed as a pandemic by World Health Organisation (01/04/2010 to 10/03/2020) and during COVID-19 pandemic (11/03/2020 to 27/05/2021). Result shows that the leverage effect were positive and significant in both periods which indicates that positive shocks increases volatility more than negative news of the same sign. Also, EGARCH-SSTD and GJR-GARCH (1,1)-SSTD were the best fitted models for before and during pandemic respectively. Result shows that volatility persistence was higher during COVID-19 period (1.012639) than before the COVID-19 pandemic (0.988749) .There was also an increase and over persistence in the volatility of Nigerian crude oil price during COVID-19 than before COVID-19 period.

Energy Price Fluctuation and Inflation in Nigeria: A Granger Causality Analysis

The Nigerian economy depends to a reasonable extent on the sale of crude oil for its expenditure. The country also depends on importation for a high level of its consumption. Given these events, this paper set out to investigate the causality effect of energy price fluctuations on inflation in Nigeria. This was done using time series data from 1985 to 2018. Oil price, gas price and exchange rate were the independent variables and inflation was the dependent variable. The result of the pairwise granger causality test shows that inflation is not caused by oil price or gas price fluctuations. The paper proposes that fiscal and monetary policy should be engaged to understand the causes of inflation in Nigeria.

Mining Resource Corridor development in Nigeria: critical considerations and actions for a diversified and sustainable economic future

The low crude oil prices in 2019 add momentum to Nigeria’s need for economic diversification as its foreign earnings come primarily from crude oil sales. As a result, Nigeria is seeking to explore other economic potentials, such as developing a Mining Resource Corridor (MRC) to reduce poverty and assist the country’s sustained growth and development. MRCs catalyse mineral extraction, transportation, processing, and infrastructural development and integrate other sectors of the economy, thus, creating jobs and promoting economic diversification and inclusive growth. However, achieving this requires drawing up an articulated delivery mechanism through a framework strategic implementation plan to attain a strategic diversification away from hydrocarbons to minerals. This article takes an applied research approach to examine the critical considerations and actions that Nigeria should take in developing an MRC to ensure a diverse and sustainable economic future. Additionally, it discusses the lessons Nigeria can learn from two corridors in Mozambique. This study notes that the success of a MRC is a function of, among other things, a skilled and adequately strengthened institution, enabling infrastructure and the participation of communities in the decision-making process of the corridor development. It also includes the support of all levels of government and possible assistance from development partners and donor agencies such as the World Bank.

Oil Revenue and Economic Growth of Nigeria: 1990 – 2019

The oil and gas business in Nigeria has brought unparalleled fluctuations to the Nigerian economy, mostly in the past five decades after it substituted agriculture as the basis of the Nigerian economy. This study investigated the relationship between oil revenue and economic growth in Nigeria. It spanned through the period 1990 through 2019. The specific objectives are to investigate the relationship between crude oil/gas export, petroleum profit tax/royalty, domestic crude oil sales, oil licensing fees on real gross domestic product and real gross national product in Nigeria. And also, ascertain whether the exchange rate moderates the relationship between oil revenue and economic growth in Nigeria. The study employed an ex post facto research design and the secondary data used for the investigation were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin, Federal Inland Revenue Service Fact Book and the World Bank Development Website. Descriptive Statistics, Pearson Moment Correlation Coefficient and Ordinary Least Square Multiple Regression Statistical tools were used in the study. The results revealed that Crude oil/gas export has a significant and negative relationship with the real gross domestic product in Nigeria; Petroleum profit tax/royalty has a significant and positive relationship with real gross domestic in Nigeria; Domestic crude oil sales have an insignificant and negative relationship with real gross domestic product in Nigeria; Oil licensing fees have an insignificant and negative relationship with real gross domestic product in Nigeria; The study concluded that there is a significant relationship between oil revenue and economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should effectively and efficiently utilize the oil fund in strategic development projects so as to reduce the rate of poverty and facilitate economic growth.

Arima-garch Modeling of Monthly Crude Oil Prices Volatility from Nigeria

This research work, studied the hybrid of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models that best fit monthly crude oil price volatility of Nigeria between January, 2010 to March, 2021. The study collected secondary data from quarterly Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, June, 2021 on monthly crude oil price of Nigeria to compute the monthly crude oil price returns. The ARIMA-GARCH modeling was adopted for this work. The series was tested for stationarity using Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Several ARIMA -GARCH models were applied to the monthly crude oil price returns to ascertain the best fit model for the series. The ARIMA (2, 0, 5)-GARCH(1,4) model was selected as the best fit for the data since it has minimum values of Akaike Information Criteria and Mean Squared Errors. The forecasted period showed a crude oil price with an unstable monthly crude oil price returns. Therefore, the government of Nigeria was advised to be conservative when planning with revenue from crude oil sales in future.

The Impact of the 2020 Oil Production Fluctuations on Methane Emissions over the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: A Satellite Approach

The COVID-19 outbreak has significantly affected global industrial and transportation markets. Airlines, rails, and cars’ industries and their supporting energy sectors have been substantially disrupted by the pandemic. This has resulted in undermined energy demand around the world during 2019 and 2020. The organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) led by Saudi Arabia failed to persuade Russia to cutback oil supplies to deal with the loss of demand from the COVID-19 pandemic. On 8 March 2020, Saudi Arabia announced a raise in its oil production and offered a large discount on its crude oil sales. By April 2020, Saudi Arabia increased its oil production to about 12 million-oil barrels/day. This rise in oil production has not only resulted in the biggest fall in oil prices since the 1991 Gulf War but also increased methane emissions over the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regions. Here, we report 2019 and 2020 data set of average seasonal methane-mixing ratio retrieved from TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board of S5P spacecraft over 19 refineries and oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. Low methane emissions were recorded over western and central Saudi Arabia compared to the eastern side of the country. In general, high methane emissions were observed in 2020 compared to 2019 around oil refineries and fields in western, central, and eastern regions of Saudi Arabia as well as over other GCC countries. This could be attributed to the oil high production associated with the oil prices fluctuation during 2020.

Comparative Analysis of the Effect of Direct and Indirect Taxation Revenue on Economic Growth of Nigeria

The study was conducted to comparatively analyse the effects of direct and indirect taxation revenue on economic growth of Nigeria. This was necessitated by the revenue shortfall from Crude oil sales which has been the main revenue earner of the government and the latent potentials of taxation as the most reliable source of revenue. The study was designed to find out which of the tax category affect economic growth most in Nigeria. Ex post facto research design was the research design involving secondary data extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) published reports. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statically techniques using correlational and regressional statistics. Results reveal that direct taxation has more negative effect on the economy than indirect taxation as evidenced by the adjusted R2 (Direct taxes 80%; Indirect taxes 67%, case wise predictive residuals (maximum values: direct taxes 6.123, indirect taxes 5.893). It was therefore recommended that the government should review regulatory and operational guidelines at the oil and gas sector and tax reforms in the form of reliefs and other incentives to companies to encourage investors and boost productive activities to enhance economic growth of the country.

STRATEGIES FOR MANAGING OIL SPILL RELATED CONFLICTS IN THE NIGER DELTA: A CASE STUDY OF BAYELSA STATE

The discovery of crude oil in Oloibiri-a town in the present Bayelsa state, Niger-Delta region of Nigeria) in 1956 and the subsequent exploration activities have over the years impacted tremendously not only on the ecosystem and livelihood pattern of the Niger Delta but on the pattern of conflicts that has trended.. While resources accruable to Nigeria from sale of crude oil are shared by all, the impacts of oil spill an offshoot of crude oil exploration activities are borne solely by the Niger Delta region. Oil spill appears to have found a permanent abode in Bayelsa state; from Southern Ijaw to Sagbama local governments, Olodiama to Azuzuama communities. Local communities are faced with the problem of continuous oil spill. This in turn has brought about conflicts between oil bearing communities and oil companies. These conflicts in some instances led to shut down of operations of oil companies, vandalism, and reduction of Nigeria’s crude export. In view of the illustrated background, this study examined the strategies for management of oil spill related conflicts in Bayelsa state regarding that oil spill is a key impact of crude oil exploration activity. Findings revealed that the strategies deployed in the management of oil spill in the state can be categorised into three: community strategies, regulators and non-governmental organisations strategies.

An Empirical Investigation into the Effect of Global Oil Price on Nigeria Gross Domestic Product from (2000-2019)

Nigeria is one of the largest oil producing countries in the world, its revenue is largely dependent on crude oil sales. The country vulnerability to crude oil price fluctuations is a phenomenon that has been a reoccurring event Thus; this study aims to examine the impact of Global crude oil prices on Nigeria gross domestic product (GDP) and the economy at large. The study relied deeply on secondary data obtained from the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN). The data were subjected to simple regression analysis, Pearson Product Moment Correlation to determine the effect and relationship between oil price (Independent Variable) and Nigeria GDP (dependent variables). And time series analysis was also used to examine the trend in the data set and fit a more parsimonious model that would aid forecasting of future crude oil price and GDP. The study found that Global crude oil price have a significant correlation with Nigeria gross domestic product, %58.1 of variation in Nigeria gross domestic product is attributed to fluctuation in Global crude oil price and Nigeria GDP will increase by ₦4.21bn per unit increase in crude oil price. The study thus conclude that global crude oil price has a significant impact on Nigeria GDP and its economy at large. The study among others recommend diversification of the Nigerian economy is most imperative given the economic recession in the country now and the impending take-over of the transportation industry by electric vehicles. Keywords: Oil price, Gross domestic product, Economy, Price shock, Exchange rate, Nigeria. DOI: 10.7176/EJBM/13-4-03 Publication date: February 28 th 2021

Optimizing Crude Oil Sales from Strategic Petroleum Reserves in Asia

A joint oil stockpiling facility no more than 3 days sailing from its key markets would be ideally positioned as a Strategic Petroleum Reserve for net importing nations during times of crisis and tight markets. At other times, the facility would have additional value in its capacity to provide an excellent central location for the sale of spot crude for a crude oil marketing company or major producing company. At the same time, the sale of crude oil options to Asian markets can provide a secure and reliable source of supply during times of volatility and enhance a major producing company’s market share in the region. Spot crude oil and product sales from a joint oil stockpiling facility would be able reach tight markets in a few days, and in fact would be available for pick-up in variable quantities that are appropriate for specific market disruptions. As a result, the sale of spot crude oil spread options would have the potential to address sporadic and unanticipated increases in demand without adding undue downward pressure to regional oil prices. The case study develops a model to price the sale of crude oil spread options to China from a hypothetical joint oil stockpiling facility in Northeast Asia over a 15-year period from 2016 to 2030.

Niger Delta conflict and the cry for restructuring and true federalism in Nigeria: A study of Akpos Adesi's Agadagba Warriors

AbstractThe Nigerian polity, since its independence, has faced many problems. Some of these problems are high rates of unemployment and poverty, religious intolerance, inter‐ethnic conflicts, resource control, etc. Attempts have been made by the past and present governments to address some of these challenges, but all attempts have proven futile. This has led many concerned groups to call for a restructuring of the country to make for fairness in the distribution and management of the nation's resources. This paper examines restructuring and the cry for true federalism in Nigeria using Akpos Adesi's Agadagba Warriors whose premiere performance was on the 12 May 2006 as a case study. The study employs the case study and content analysis research approaches of the qualitative method. The paper claims that Akpos Adesi's play metaphorizes the main causes of anti‐Nigeria agitations, deduced from the text as ethnic sentiments, lack of equity in the sharing of the nation's resources and concentration of political authority at the central government. As seen in the play, the Niger Delta, amongst the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, contributes the highest quota to Nigeria's economy, in terms of crude oil production, which is the mainstay of Nigeria's economy. However, the lack of the practice of true federalism and unequal distribution of the wealth accrued from crude oil sales to the Niger Delta results in constant conflict between the federal government and Niger Deltans. Separatist tendencies and the clamour for restructuring of the nation by the Niger Deltans become the driving themes of this discourse.

Rheological impact and economic implications of partial to total substitution of imported bentonite clay for oil and gas drilling operations in Nigeria

In less than a decade, there have been two global meltdowns of crude oil price and the latest was caused by the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in 2020. This is expected to have a negative impact on the global economy, especially on those countries that depend more on the revenue from sales of crude oil. One of the measures that can be taken to survive this kind of situation in the future is to reduce the unit technical cost for producing a barrel of oil by using locally available materials. This research investigated a local clay sourced from Ropp in Plateau State, Nigeria, by considering its rheological characteristics and economic implications of using it for partial to total substitution of imported bentonite clay for oil and gas drilling operations. The local clay was termed as Ropp bentonite clay (RBC). Various spud mud samples were prepared by dispersing a mixture of imported bentonite clay (IBC) and RBC (0–100%) in 350 ml of water. Certain quantity (0–1 g) of polyacrylamide cellulose was added to the mud samples before rheological and physical properties were determined using the standard API procedure. An economic model was built to determine the cost implications of using any of the mud formulations at different consumption rates. The results show that IBC–RBC blend in the right proportion could save Nigeria 12 to 36% of the cost of bentonite clay used to drill wells in the country.

Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Spending in Oil Producing Economy: The Role of Asymmetry

Given their over reliance on proceeds from the sale of crude oil, fiscal spending in the oil-producing economy are often characterised with some specific challenges mainly due to the uncertainty in the nature of oil price movements in the international crude oil market. Motivated by the historical up – down trends in the international oil prices and their potential implications particularly for oil-producing countries, this paper explores linear and non-linear ARDL frameworks to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on fiscal spending. Using the case of the Nigerian economy, this empirical finding suggests that shocks to international oil prices did matter for fiscal spending in the oil-producing economy. On the direction of the impact of the shocks, the finding of the non-rejection of the null hypothesis of no asymmetry thus implies that fiscal spending in Nigeria reacts indifferently to either a positive or negative oil price shocks.