Crude Oil Export Research Articles

Iraq Crude Oil Exports – January, February and March 2020

Table 1. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – January 2020Table 2. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – February 2020Table 3. Iraq Crude Oil Exports – March 2020

Sensitivity of Crude Oil Price Change to Major Global Factors and to Russian–Ukraine War Crisis

To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode; using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents; and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents; a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian–Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.

Sensitivity of crude oil price change to major global factors and to Russian-Ukraine war crisis

To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, we employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares (FLS), and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), in addition to OLS regression mode; using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. Our findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents; and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents; a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian–Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pb[1][2]. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.

A novel fractional grey forecasting model with variable weighted buffer operator and its application in forecasting China's crude oil consumption

Oil is an important strategic material and civil energy. Accurate prediction of oil consumption can provide basis for relevant departments to reasonably arrange crude oil production, oil import and export, and optimize the allocation of social resources. Therefore, a new grey model FENBGM(1,1) is proposed to predict oil consumption in China. Firstly, the grey effect of the traditional GM(1,1) model was transformed into a quadratic equation. Four different parameters were introduced to improve the accuracy of the model, and the new initial conditions were designed by optimizing the initial values by weighted buffer operator. Combined with the reprocessing of the original data, the scheme eliminates the random disturbance effect, improves the stability of the system sequence, and can effectively extract the potential pattern of future development. Secondly, the cumulative order of the new model was optimized by fractional cumulative generation operation. At the same time, the smoothness rate quasi-smoothness condition was introduced to verify the stability of the model, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) was used to search the optimal parameters of the model to enhance the adaptability of the model. Based on the above improvements, the new combination prediction model overcomes the limitation of the traditional grey model and obtains more accurate and robust prediction results. Then, taking the petroleum consumption of China's manufacturing industry and transportation, storage and postal industry as an example, this paper verifies the validity of FENBGM(1,1) model, analyzes and forecasts China's crude oil consumption with several commonly used forecasting models, and uses FENBGM(1,1) model to forecast China's oil consumption in the next four years. The results show that FENBGM(1,1) model performs best in all cases. Finally, based on the prediction results of FENBGM(1,1) model, some reasonable suggestions are put forward for China's oil consumption planning.

Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Crude Palm Oil (CPO) di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan

This study aims to determine the factors that affect crude palm oil exports in South Kalimantan province, knowing the influence of production amount, dollar exchange rate, and CPO price on CPO exports in South Kalimantan Province. In increasing CPO production for the future, Indonesia is still superior because of the availability of sizeable tropical land for planting oil palm trees. Indonesia's CPO production, especially in South Kalimantan, continues to increase. It can be identified because of the influence of the amount of output, dollar exchange rate, and CPO price on South Kalimantan CPO exports?This research is research that uses multiple linear regression analysis techniques. Linear regression is one of the statistical tools used to describe the relationship between variables; the dependent and independent variables are used. The results showed that the amount of production (X1)) and the exchange rate of the Dollar (X3) together did not significantly influence the CPO Export of South Kalimantan (Y).

Asymmetric Shocks In Oil Price: An Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Approach

This study empirically examined the asymmetric oil price shocks in Nigeria from 1981q1-2019q4 using the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. The EGARCH model was employed to investigate the asymmetric oil price shocks by obtaining the conditional variance from the estimated results. Empirical results revealed a weak indication for leverage effect and a strong indication for asymmetric effect. The positive egarch (L2) coefficient means that unanticipated increases in the price crude Oil are more profitable than unanticipated decreases in the price of crude Oil. Also, the results revealed strong asymmetry of oil price shocks in Nigeria. In specific terms, the positive asymmetric coefficient (1.8276) means an observed tendency of the crude oil price shock to be higher by approximately 1.83 per cent in declining oil prices in the crude oil market than in rising prices in the oil markets. Based on the above, the study recommended appropriate export diversification policies to reduce the dependency on crude oil exports as the major export (revenue) in the economy. This will offset crude oil price shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic shock on Oil price, especially from an unanticipated decrease in crude oil prices in the international market. Key Words: Oil price, Oil Price Shocks, Asymmetry, EGARCH, Nigeria

Evaluating Oil Price Movement and Revenue Generation in Nigeria during Covid-19 Pandemic: Experience from Pre and Post Era

The study focusses on evaluating oil price movement and revenue generation in Nigeria with emphasis on the era of pre and post covid-19 pandemic. Measures such as crude oil price, domestic production, crude oil export and revenue, and revenue generation were assessed before, during and after covid-19 pandemic. The evidence shows that oil price and revenue generation were negatively affected during covid-19 pandemic era due to restriction on the movement of people and economic activities. Hence, the study further revealed a drastic fall in crude oil price and export, as well as domestic production (mbd) especially during the first quarter of 2020. While crude oil price appreciated slightly from June, the export and domestic production plummeted with a corresponding decrease in revenue generation which dropped deeply from $47 billion USD in 2019 to $8 billion USD in 2020. Further evaluation revealed that after the introduction of some measures by the government authorities, the Nigerian economic start to recover, which results to a slight improvement in crude oil price in December 2020, but later fell to 40.28 mbd in march 2021. Thus, other indicators such as domestic production and crude oil export has no sign of recovery between this period except for revenue generation which increases by $4 billion USD. Moreso, to control the aftermath of pandemic, we suggest for cohesive policy measures such as educating people on the benefits of covid-19 vaccines and proper enforcement on the use of facemask. In turn, this will reduce the spread and promote economic activities in Nigeria. In addition, policies that could regulate oil price movement should be initiated. Consequently, it may likely encourage increase in revenue generation in Nigeria.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Nigerian Exports

Abstract The paper set out to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Nigerian exports. The Coronavirus was first detected in Wuhan, China but it quickly spread around the world and was declared a global pandemic on 11th March 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Various disruptive preventive public health policies were rolled out to control its spread. These policies and the severity of the negative health effects of the virus affected the global economic activities including Nigeria adversely. Using an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and variation analyses, the paper found that the pandemic impacted negatively on total exports but more significantly on crude oil exports and less on non-crude oil and non-oil exports. The results reinforce the generally held view that Nigeria needs to diversify its exports away from crude oil so as to minimize the impact of negative external shocks on Nigerian exports and economy. Keywords: Exports, International trade, COVID-19 pandemic, Nigeria. JEL Classification Codes: F10, I10.

Air pollution trajectories and life expectancy in Nigeria

PurposeThe purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between air pollution and life expectancy considering the roles of institutional quality, agricultural output, foreign direct investment (FDI) and other socio-economic variables in Nigeria from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed spliced quarterly data from annual series collected from the World Bank development indicators and Central Bank of Nigeria. The dynamic multivariate models were analysed using the vector error correction mechanism (VECM), variance decomposition and Granger causality techniques.FindingsThe VECM result indicated a statistically significant adverse effect of air pollution on life expectancy. However, institutional quality, gross domestic product per capita, agricultural output, government social expenditure and school enrolment rate ameliorate the adverse health effects of air pollution, while FDI had mixed effects on life expectancy at different significance levels and at varying lag lengths. The Granger causality result revealed a uni-directional causality from air pollution to life expectancy; bidirectional causal chain between agriculture, FDI, government social expenditure and life expectancy, while a uni-directional causal linkage run from life expectancy to income per head and from school enrolment to life expectancy respectively. However, there is no evidence of causation between institutional quality and life expectancy due to weak institutional quality, but foreign direct invest causes carbon emission in a uni-directional manner in line with pollution haven hypothesis.Research limitations/implicationsThe study's modelling is limited by not considering the resource curse variable in the model due to paucity of data. Nigeria is the biggest crude oil exporter in Africa and ranks 13th globally with daily output of about 2.4 m barrels. Thus, the negation of resource curse in air pollution–life expectancy nexus de-emphasises the effectiveness of rich resources on health and environment. Future studies could address this limitation by incorporating resource curse in environmental-health models for Nigeria.Practical implicationsIt is imperative for the country to adopt stringent anti-air pollution strategies that would establish a balance between FDI attraction and agricultural expansion to the benefits of her citizens' longevity. Also, education should be considered as a strategic action to enhance life expectancy through expansion in the provision, accessibility and affordability to improved school enrolment rate. The choice of quarterly time series over annual data helped to establish the current relationship between air pollution and life expectancy using efficient estimators.Originality/valueThe study contributes to literature by disaggregating yearly series into quarterly series, which has implications for the efficiency of the estimates, unlike earlier studies which ignored this fundamental process. The result of this study produced reliable policy direction for improvement in life expectancy in an emerging economy since quarterly estimates are more robust and reliable for forecasting than its yearly counterpart. The outcome of the study extended the original tenets of the Grossman's health stock theory using the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and pollution haven hypotheses (PHH).

The Crude Oil International Trade Competition Networks: Evolution Trends and Estimating Potential Competition Links

In the context of the economic situation, international relations, and the consequences of COVID-19, the future competition pattern of crude oil trade is uncertain. In this paper, the crude oil international import competition and export competition networks are based on a complex network model. The link prediction method is used to construct a crude oil competition relationship prediction model. We summarize the evolving characteristics of the competitive landscape of the global crude oil trade from 2000 to 2019 and explore the reasons for the changes. Finally, we forecast the future potential crude oil import and export competition. The results indicate the following. (1) The crude oil import competition center is transferred from Europe and America to the Asia–Pacific region and it may continue to shift to developing regions. (2) At present, the competition among traditional crude oil exporters is the core of crude oil export competition, such as OPEC, Canada, and Russia. The United States has become the world’s largest crude oil exporter, which means that the core of crude oil export competition has begun to shift to emerging countries. The competition intensity of emerging crude oil exporters is gradually increasing. There is likely to be fierce export competition between traditional and emerging exporters. (3) In the future crude oil competition, we should pay attention to the trend of the United States, which may lead to the restructuring of the global oil trade pattern. Finally, this paper considers the exporters and importers and puts forward policy suggestions for policymakers to deal with the future global crude oil trade competition.

مركز دراسات البصرة والخليج العربي/ جامعة البصرة

There is no doubt that investment is important in the development and development of infrastructure, represented by various service facilities, power stations, water and sewage networks, and roads. Also, investment in the development of the industrial sector and the increase of sectoral interactions contribute to achieving human development and developing the skills of workers in the various economic sectors. Accordingly, the Kuwaiti economy is one of the most important economies in the regional region in the Middle East, as Kuwait is one of the oil-exporting countries. As the Kuwaiti economy enjoys many prominent components and factors that have contributed to attracting foreign direct investment. The reader should know that most of the natural and mineral resources that exist in Kuwait are exploited through investments, which are characterized by containing huge amounts of these resources, but most of these investments are focused on the oil sector. Therefore, investment contributes to the transfer and localization of advanced technology to Kuwait by attracting foreign investments, especially direct, which the Kuwaiti government seeks to encourage investors to invest through privileges and guarantees offered to investors, as well as the security and political stability that Kuwait enjoys. In addition to providing stimulating policies and procedures to advance the Kuwaiti economic reality. This is what makes the importance of investment in the development of the Kuwaiti economy, which depends in the characteristic of its economy on the export of crude oil.

Interpreting GATS Schedules: Saudi Arabia and Crude Oil Energy Services

The world has become increasingly sensitive to the need to shift away from the utilization of crude oil and other fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the former continues to be a major contributor to the energy industry. Many crude oil-rich nations rely on foreign suppliers to provide them with production know-how and technology services within the ambit of the 1994 General Agreement on Trade in Services. While the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) contains several obligations of importance, the focus here is on the agreement’s market access and national treatment obligations. More narrowly, the Schedule of service sector commitments agreed to by Saudi Arabia, the world’s single largest crude oil exporter, is examined in the context of three important sectors essential to the crude oil industry. The examination is conducted through the lens of the basic interpretive principles articulated in and gleaned from the small handful of World Trade Organization (WTO) adjudicative decisions addressing the matter of GATS Schedule interpretation. This approach illustrates how those principles operate in the context of real language deployed in the actual Schedule of an important energy supplier. market access, national treatment, MA, NT, ‘bound’, ‘unbound’, ‘none’, horizontal, engineering, mining, construction, pipelines, Vienna Convention, CPC, Sectoral Classification, Article XVI, Article XX, Saudi Arabia

Increases in oil price or oil exports: Which one is more positive on trade balance for African OPEC Member Countries?

AbstractThis study examines whether an increase in oil prices or oil exports will improve the trade balance in African OPEC Member Countries. The annual panel data of four African OPEC Member Countries, namely Algeria, Angola, Libya and Nigeria were used in the study. The aim of the study is to determine whether African OPEC Member Countries will benefit more from an increase in oil prices or an increase in oil exports coupled with a depreciation in the exchange rate. Two panel estimators were used, namely a fully modified OLS and a dynamic OLS. The results indicate that both an increase in oil prices and in oil exports will improve the trade balance of African OPEC Member Countries; but the greater benefit will be from an increase in crude oil exports. Furthermore, depreciation in the exchange rate will discourage imports, while it will be insignificant in encouraging exports. Policymakers should know that it will be more beneficial to increase oil exports rather than oil prices in order to improve the trade balance of their country. The oil producing countries are supplying the crude oil based on the equilibrium in the world market demand increase in economic activities is favourable to trade balance. In addition, the central bank has to realise that devaluing the exchange rate is not an effective way to improve exports since it will not lower the price of domestic crude oil.

Fiscal Federalism and Resource Control in Nigeria: Deconstructing a Conundrum

Following the end of the Nigeria-Biafra war in 1970, crude oil exports became Nigeria’s major foreign exchange earner, and national politics became a struggle over who controls the country’s oil sources and revenues. For nearly thirty years, the military, dominated as it were, by Northern Nigerian officers, kept on tinkering with revenue allocation formulae to the advantage of the North and to the chagrin and dismay of the oil-bearing South. While the latter continued to agitate for a review of the existing lopsided federal structure through restructuring and devolution of powers to enable them control the resources within their communities, the North persisted in its opposition to any change in the status quo. The result has been a lack of trust and acrimony in North-South relations. The paper adopted the qualitative research approach which basically involved content analysis. Among its findings was that the soured relations between the North and the South has impeded national integration, nation-building, and national development. It concluded that there is a compelling need to address the various issues associated with fiscal federalism, revenue allocation, and resource control through a restructuring of the Nigerian polity and economy.This will discourage the endemic and destructive struggle for the federal government between the political elite from both the North and South.

Impact of Import and Export of Energy Supply on the Total Electricity Generation Model

Renewable and non-renewable sources are crucial especially in the production of electricity. In Malaysia, we are mainly using fossil fuels to generate electricity. To ensure a sufficient amount of energy sources, we require to import these energy supplies. Since Malaysia has a large amount of petroleum and crude oil, we need to export the resources and indirectly, it can contribute by increasing our country's income. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to explore any significant impact of import and export of energy on the total electricity generation in Malaysia. All of the data are taken from the Energy Commission (Malaysia). Range from 1980 until 2017 every year. Ordinary least square (OLS) and correlation analysis have been implemented to achieve the objectives of our study. The energy supply was found to be significant with the total electricity generation exclude the export of crude oil which shows it is insignificant. Then, our findings proved that the highest correlation is between the import of petroleum and import of coal. On the contrary, the import of crude oil is the lowest negatively correlated to the export of crude oil. For the K-S test, it justified that the residuals are normally distributed. Our results confirm the energy supply influences either in a positive or negative impact on the total production of electricity in Malaysia.

Impact of COVID-19 on South Sudan: A Review on Social and Economic Management Policies from the First Wave

In December 2019, a new respiratory disease, i.e., novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) emerged in Mainland China in Wuhan the capital of Hubei Province. It spreads through droplets produced while coughing or sneezing. Its symptoms include fever, dry cough, fatigue, sputum production, shortness of breath, sore throat, etc. In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a “Pandemic” which affected human lives and economies. South Sudan is a developing country and does not have adequate resources to overcome this pandemic (COVID-19).
 Aims: The primary objective of this article is to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the youngest country in the African continent (South Sudan) on its weak economy coupled with hyperinflation and depreciation of currency etc. and lessons learned from other countries in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.
 Methodology: A review was carried out to accomplish the objective of the study by extracting data from the database of Science Direct, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Research Gate, and authentic websites for World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank, etc., studies covered major areas across the globe but more especially countries that have trade ties with South Sudan and the East African
 Results: There is a drop in South Sudan’s crude oil export which is crucial for the economy. The responsive rate to vulnerable citizens was low, inadequate policies implementations, there was massive unemployment, it has created the state of xenophobia between nationals and foreigners, online learning through the use of televisions (TVs) and radio stations has not been effective.
 Conclusion: The management of the COVID-19 pandemic call for collaboration between authorities the public, and inter-states as there is no country immune. The use of e-commerce is crucial for developing countries, which reduces social interaction between traders and consumers, reducing the chances of a complete economic shutdown. Lastly, there is also a need to establish learning infrastructures for online studies and birth control initiatives, especially for the least developed countries.

Projects of Mobilization of Oil Resources for the Needs of Forced Industrialization

Using on published and unpublished documents, the problem of “searches” at the turn of the 1920s and 1930s is investigated. Mechanisms to achieve growth of oil production and oil exports to meet the needs of forced industrialization in the USSR are a central theme. The documents studied suggest that there were projects in this period that provided various options for the reorganization of the management of the oil industry and the use of mechanisms to ensure the implementation of five-year plans. While the management of Grozneft proposed strengthening cost accounting, expanding independence, and expanding the rights of each business unit and to increase the pace of technical reconstruction, representatives of the most important Azerbaijani oil region at that time insisted on the need to send significant financial resources to the government, complained about staff shortages and equipment. However, for central authorities, deficiencies in trust management seemed to be a preferable explanation for the failure to fulfill plans. The documents also indicate a very difficult situation for the Soviet oil trusts that developed on the world energy market during this period. The study concludes that projects that assumed greater independence of oil regions and an increase in government funding could not be arranged by the central government. The stake was placed on an ever-increasing centralization of management, strict submission to dictated from above plans. Their failure was accompanied by the arrests of a cohort of brilliant oil workers. Despite the repressions, a very difficult geopolitical situation, thanks to experienced specialists and previously gained positions in the world energy market, it was possible to force production and oil export of Soviet oil products. Moreover, the share of crude oil export in the late 1930s was very minor.

Demand for Indonesia’s Coconut Crude Oil in the Netherlands: Application of LA/AIDS Model

Besides the Philippines, Indonesia is the second-largest coconut crude oil exporter country in the Netherlands. The level of competition for Indonesia’s coconut crude oil (CCO) is necessary to estimate in the main market. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the level of competition for Indonesia’s coconut crude oil in the Netherlands, using a linear approximate AIDS model. The data used monthly time series on import values and quantities from 2004 to 2019 by the Netherlands. The results indicate that Indonesia’s position in the Netherlands was inferior compared to the Philippines. The own-price elasticity of Indonesia’s coconut crude oil was non-sensitive to the price change. Moreover, Indonesia and the Philippines were competing with each other. Thus, increasing the coconut crude oil export and improving quality size is one of the alternative strategies to catch up with the competition in the Netherlands.

The Costs Reduction Effects of Ending the U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban

The Costs Reduction Effects of Ending the U.S. Crude Oil Export Ban

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN BIODIESEL 20 TERHADAP DAYA SAING EKSPOR MINYAK SAWIT MURNI (CPO) INDONESIA

Oil palm is the flagship commodity in Indonesia, the commodity is the biggest foreign exchange contributor for the non-oil sector. This makes Indonesia the world's leading producer and exporter. However, over time there has been a decline in the number of exports of crude palm oil (CPO) Indonesia which caused the government to issue a mandatory biodiesel 20 (B20) policy. The objectives of the study are: 1) identifying the production, price, and export of crude palm oil (CPO) and Indonesian biodiesel, 2) Analyzing the impact of Biodiesel 20 (B20) policy on biodiesel production in Indonesia, 3) Analyzing the competitiveness of Indonesian crude palm oil products (CPO). The methods used are Mann-Whitney U test, Relative Trade Advantage (RTA), Trade Specialisation Index (TSI), and Export Product Dynamics (EPD). The results showed that: 1) an increase in CPO and Biodiesel production; domestic CPO prices and biodiesel prices; and biodiesel exports. Meanwhile, there is a decline in world CPO prices and Indonesian CPO exports. 2) B20 policy affects to CPO production, biodiesel production and biodiesel export. However, no impact on Indonesia's CPO exports. 3) Indonesia still has an advantage in CPO trading in terms of comparative and competitive advantages in DOI : https://doi.org/10.33005/adv.v10i2.2909