Demand For Crude Oil Research Articles

PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD

Crude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices can reduce state revenues, disrupt development programs, and even trigger budget deficits. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil prices can make a positive contribution to state revenues. Crude oil exports become more profitable, which can increase state revenue through royalties and taxes levied on the oil and gas sector. This additional revenue can be used to support infrastructure development, social programs, and investment in key sectors of the economy. High oil prices can also harm the economy. With the many impacts that can be caused by crude oil prices, the government must be able to anticipate and prepare for it. The data used in this study are data on crude oil prices in Indonesia for monthly periods from January 2018 to October 2023 sourced from the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of the Republic of Indonesia. The researcher tried to compare two analysis methods, namely the Fourier series and the ARIMA estimator. The results of this study show that the best method in predicting crude oil prices in Indonesia is the Fourier series estimator with Cos-Sin function which produces RMSE and MAPE values of 7.93 and 8.4%. The prediction results can be used as a reference for the government to anticipate and make programs or policies that are more focused and targeted toward the impacts that can be caused by changes in crude oil prices.

The Impact of Indonesian Crude Oil Demand Prices on the Indonesian Biodiesel Industry

Biodiesel is one of Indonesia's potential export commodities as there is a production surplus that occurs every year from 2006 to 2020. The study used the 2SLS method with a validation and simultaneous equation model. Data processing using SAS/ETS version 9.4. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Indonesia's crude oil demand price on Indonesia's biodiesel industry. The findings indicate that the demand for Indonesian biodiesel is positively impacted by a rise in the global real price of crude oil by 0.11%. This increase is due to both the biodiesel industry's and the local market's need for Indonesian palm oil. The local price of Indonesian biodiesel would rise by 0.49% due to the increase in demand for the fuel. The amount of biodiesel produced in Indonesia will increase by 0.87%, this increase in production is due to increasing domestic demand for Indonesian palm oil, and the volume of biodiesel exported to destination countries will increase by 0.01%. Exports of palm oil may be more impacted by the policy of raising the actual world price of crude oil. This implies that the program may potentially result in a rise in raw material exports. On the other hand, the biodiesel industry and other industries also see a spike in palm oil as a result of the strategy of raising the real world price of crude oil.

PH-switchable hydrophobic deep eutectic solvents for sustainable recycling extraction of high oily waste

The accumulation of oily waste increases annually with the growth in crude oil demand. Its toxicity and high heating value present both opportunities and challenges for treatment technologies. In recent years, the emergence of hydrophobic deep eutectic solvents (HDES) has promoted advancements in low-toxicity extraction processes. Leveraging the advantages of HDES and addressing the challenges posed by real oily sawdust (with a 67.9 % oil content), this study presents a novel green HDES solvent composed of ethyl maltol and fatty acids, accompanied by a corresponding extraction process. At a low temperature of 60 °C, the process achieved impressive results: an oil extraction efficiency close to 86.3 %, a dehydration rate exceeding 92.2 %, and a heavy metal removal rate ranging from 15 % to 75 %. In the exploration of solvents recycling, pH-switching facilitated the deprotonation and protonation of phenol-fatty acid HDES, promoting effective recovery of the oil phase. Even after 5 cycles, the oil extraction rate could still be maintained above 75 %. It is worth noting that the regenerated HDES exhibited greater selectivity for extracting light oil after multiple uses. The total ratio of saturated and aromatic hydrocarbons reached approximately 81.7 %, significantly enhancing the value of the recovered oil. Integrating systematic characterization with the extraction performance, as well as the variation in recovered oil phase components, highlighted the multifaceted effects of introducing ethyl maltol. Specifically, this effect is demonstrated in its ability to enhance the oil phase’s solubility by regulating the intermolecular spacing of HDES, and to impede the dissolution of heavy oil into its gaps by optimizing the local zone through the formation of complexes with HDES and heavy metals.

Advanced Research on the Production, Transportation and Processing of High Waxy Oil. A Review

Global demand for crude oil has grown significantly over the past two decades. However, conventional light crude oil production is declining, and more and more deposits of heavy and waxy oil, including high waxy ones, are being developed, creating new technological challenges at every level of the process, from production to transportation and refining. Among the various problems, the main one is wax deposition. Since the costs of maintenance, repair, and achieving the required low-temperature properties of commercial oil products are very high, solving this problem becomes critical. The paper discusses the existing problems of production, transportation, and refining of waxy crude oil and analyzes the methods of their solution.

Market volatilities vs oil shocks: Which dominate the relative performance of green bonds?

The market performance of green bonds determines whether they will make a significant contribution to future financial markets and sustainable investment. It is therefore important to conduct a thorough study of the dominant factors affecting the market performance of green bonds, particularly their performance relative to conventional bonds. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to investigate and compare the impact of market volatilities (mainly VIX, OVX, and MOVE) and oil shocks (including supply shock, demand shock, and speculative demand shock) on the relative performance of green bonds. The main findings indicate that when volatilities coincide with oil shocks, the former consistently exert a more pronounced influence on the relative performance of green bonds. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the post-COVID-19 period. Concerning crude oil shocks, oil supply and demand shocks have opposite effects on the relative performance of green bonds, with the supply shock having a negative impact and the demand shock having a positive impact. Furthermore, our analysis shows that volatilities and oil shocks tend to have significant effects on the relative performance of green bonds during periods of heightened market risk aversion, while their impact remains negligible in a stable market environment. The empirical results may provide novel insights and significant implications for the further development of the green bond market.

Technical transformation of heavy/ultra-heavy oil production in China driven by low carbon goals: A review

With the growing global energy demand and limited production of conventional crude oil, the extraction of unconventional heavy and extra-heavy oil is receiving unprecedented attention. China is the fourth largest producer of heavy oil. High viscosity and complex formation environments increase the difficulty of exploiting heavy oil. To alleviate the economic cost and environmental pollution pressure brought by heavy oil production, China has achieved significant advancement in the innovation of heavy oil recovery, including accelerating the transformation of thermal technology to non-thermal technology and the use of new energy technology to achieve the goal of low-carbon economy and green environmental protection. Based on the background of heavy oil in China, this paper recharacterizes the high-viscosity mechanism of heavy oil. From different aspects, including basic principles, main characteristics, applicability, limitations, and challenges, this paper comprehensively reviews existing heavy oil recovery technologies, including thermal recovery, in-situ upgrading, cold recovery, and new energy technologies.Currently, in China, the main target of heavy oil recovery is achieving the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goals, which can be described as low energy consumption, low emission, and low pollution. To facilitate the low-carbon transition in the extraction of heavy/extra-heavy oil and attain environmental sustainability goals, it is essential to increase the proportion of non-thermal factors in thermal recovery technologies, develop efficient in-situ catalysts, adopt clean cold extraction techniques, and advance the development of new energy technologies.

Analysis of the flow and thermal-fluid–solid coupling of crude oil in circular pipe caused by variable pressure gradient

Abstract Globally, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) has become a pressing issue as the demand for crude oil continues to increase. This study investigates the flow and thermal-fluid–solid coupling of crude oil in a rod pump during hot water recovery and obtains the maximum recovery of crude oil in a vertical pipeline through numerical analysis. The pressure gradient in the pump barrel was first developed and deduced based on the ideal gas state equation and Bernoulli’s equation. According to the rheological experiment results, it was proven that the light crude oil conforms to the Newtonian constitutive equation. Subsequently, the momentum equation of crude oil flowing in the pipeline and fluid–solid coupling heat transfer equations were established and solved using the finite difference method. The effects of the thermal recovery temperature T w , wall thickness c, and stroke time n of the rod pump on flow Q are discussed. In particular, the flow Q within 1 min first increases and then slows down with the increase in stroke time n and reaches its maximum value at n = 7 r/min. Furthermore, flow Q decreases with an increase in c but increases as T w increases; c = 1.2 cm, T w = 363 K is the best oil recovery scheme.

Study of Activation Energy for Viscous Flow of Mixtures as a Measure of Dilution Efficiency for Heavy Oil-Diluent Systems

As the demand for crude oil continues to increase in response to the continued global needs for it, the development of unconventional crude oil reserves is the only way to sustain global supply. However, the excessively higher viscosity of heavy crude oil makes it less attractive for conventional pipeline transportation. Therefore, reducing the viscosity of heavy crude oil to meet crude oil transporting pipeline regulations is a necessity. This paper has assessed the dilution efficiency of well-known diluents in the petroleum industry, using different dilution ratios based on a thermodynamic approach involving activation energy and heat of vaporization determination. Based on selected dilution ratios, kinematic viscosities of binary and ternary systems of toluene and natural gas condensate as diluents, and Saudi Heavy crude oil as the base oil were measured, using anticipated field based temperatures reported in the literature, which facilitated the experimental approach. The study shows that although the ternary systems have the lowest activation energy for viscous flow and heat of vaporization in accordance with the thermal activation theory of viscous flow, natural gas condensate binary systems have the lowest cost of transportation per barrel of total fluid in the transporting pipeline. The study further shows that the binary systems for toluene and Saudi Heavy crude oil have higher activation energy for viscous flowed compared to the toluene systems.

U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?

This paper uses the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality method to investigate the relationship between U.S. monetary policy (UMP) and crude oil price (COP). The method addresses the limitations of ignoring the instability of coefficients in the previous literature and supports the partial equilibrium model from the perspective of the time domain, which enriches the existing literature. The finding reveals a positive effect from COP to UMP, implying that the unexpected rise in COP may push UMP from expansionary into restrictive since the rising COP increases the U.S. inflation pressure. Meanwhile, the economic evidence shows that UMP has a negative effect on COP, which implies that expansionary monetary policy increases the rising pressure on COP. This finding is consistent with the partial equilibrium model, which states that UMP specifically influences COP, including consumption channels and financial channels. Specifically, the expansionary monetary policy may reduce companies' investment costs and stimulate investment and consumption, increasing the demand for crude oil and pushing COP. Given the critical role played by the monetary policy and COP in the U.S., the detailed understanding derived from the relationship between the variables may help the investors and policymakers forecast the energy price trend and adjust the policy strategies promptly.

On the effects of crude oil demand and supply shocks on Korea’s bilateral trade balance: are the effects asymmetry?

ABSTRACT The contribution of the present article is to find any indication of whether three components of oil shocks – oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks – asymmetrically influence the bilateral trade balance of Korea with its top 10 partners. We discover that there is evidence that the three oil shocks asymmetrically influence Korea’s trade balance with some of its top 10 partners in the short- and long run. Additionally, the asymmetric impact appears to be a country-specific phenomenon and varies depending on different shock components.

Econometric Model Using Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression to Estimate the Risk Factors Driving Crude Oil Returns

This work presents a novel approach to determining the risk and return of crude oil stocks by employing Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression. Arbitrage Pricing Theory identifies the risk factors likely to impact crude oil returns. Subsequently, Quantile Regression estimates the relationship between the selected factors and the returns across different distribution quantiles. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price is used in this study as a benchmark for crude oil prices. WTI’s price fluctuations can significantly impact the performance of global crude oil stocks and, subsequently, the global economy. Various statistical measures are used in this study to determine the proposed model's stability. The results show that changes in WTI returns can have varying effects depending on market conditions and levels of volatility. This study emphasizes the influence of structural discontinuities on returns. These are likely generated by changes in the global economy and the unpredictable demand for crude oil during the pandemic. The inclusion of pandemic, geopolitical, and inflation-related explanatory variables adds uniqueness to the study as it considers current global events that can affect crude oil returns. Findings show that the key factors that pose significant risks to returns are industrial production, inflation, the global price of energy, the shape of the yield curve, and global economic policy uncertainty. This implies that while making investment decisions in WTI futures, investors should pay particular attention to these elements.

Modeling of Enhanced Oil Recovery

The demand for energy has been increasing exponentially and at present time, this cannot be fulfilled by renewable energy alone. Crude oil has remained one of the major mineral resources for energy. It is difficult for a populated developing country like Nigeria, to keep a balance between the supply and demand of crude oil. In recent years, considerable studies have been conducted to search for efficient technologies for recovering oil from old oil reservoirs since about two-thirds of the oil in the reservoir cannot be recovered by conventional methods. The trapped oil in the reservoir can be recovered by enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods such as chemical, thermal, gas, and microbial methods. Nanofluid flooding is found to be one of the efficient methods that have gained importance as nanoparticles have been found to alter the rock wettability which helps in oil recovery. It has also been found that the use of modeling to evaluate the performance of any process before conducting any experiments is found to be a more economical and effective practice. Therefore, the present modeling work was carried out to explore the application of nanofluid in EOR using COMSOL Multiphysics.This study investigates the effect of different parameters on EOR such as the addition of nanoparticles (Al2O3) in water, the porosity of the reservoir, and diffusion coefficients of nanofluid on oil saturation in reservoirs. Velocity contours, temperature contours, and oil saturation contours within the reservoir were investigated.

Closer is more important: The impact of Chinese and global macro-level determinants on Shanghai crude oil futures volatility

<p>Using the GARCH-MIDAS model, we investigated the impact of Chinese and global macro-level determinants on the return volatility of Shanghai crude oil futures, covering Chinese and global economic policy uncertainty, Chinese and global crude oil demand as well as production, Chinese crude oil import, and global crude oil speculation. The in-sample empirical results showed that Chinese crude oil demand, Chinese crude oil production, Chinese economic policy uncertainty, and global crude oil speculation have significant impact on the long-term volatility component of Shanghai crude oil futures. The out-of-sample prediction results show that Chinese current crude oil production and previous crude oil import have the relatively best predictive power for the return volatility of Shanghai crude oil futures. As a whole, Chinese domestic macro-factors have a stronger impact and higher predictive power on the return volatility of Shanghai crude oil futures compared with corresponding global macro-factors. Besides, the global crude oil speculation is the global macro-level determinant, which deserves most attention.</p>

Identifying oil price shocks with global, developed, and emerging latent real economy activity factors

SummaryThis paper proposes an identification strategy for international oil price shocks while accounting for the heterogeneous sources of oil demand from global, developed, and emerging economies. Unlike existing works, we isolate global oil demand shocks, associated with a global real economic activity factor, from oil demand shocks originating specifically from developed and emerging economies, associated with real economic activity factors within these two groups of economies. The paper uses a structural factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model with latent global and specific factors to model crude oil demand and supply. To identify the shocks, we extract real economic activity factors from a large panel of emerging and developed economies' real activity variables using a two‐level factor model. The paper shows how structural shocks can be identified by solving equations that arise from economically meaningful zero restrictions on the impact matrix of the reduced‐form FAVAR model innovations. The empirical application shows that identifying the international oil demand shocks based on the global and specific latent factors is essential to appropriately quantify their heterogeneous impacts on these factors, the crude oil production, and the real oil price.

Assessment of the Applicability of PV/T Electric Heating System for the Storage of Crude Oil

There are still some doubts about whether the solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) system is applicable for the practical heating system of crude oil storage although there has been a lot of research work on PV/T and heating technology in the oil field. Due to the uneven distribution of solar radiation and uncertain thermal property of crude oil, the amount of energy provided and demanded is hard to evaluate. In this study, an electric heating system based on PV/T is proposed to be applied for the storage of crude oil. By establishing the mathematical model of the system, the energy supply capacity of PV/T and the heat demand of stored crude oil in typical seasons in Xinjiang are predicted by numerical method. The applicable scheme is discussed. This study may promote the application of PV/T heating systems in oil fields.

Scope of electric vehicles and the automobile industry in Indian perspective

The fast changes in the market price of crude oil are a direct outcome of the fundamental concept of economics known as the “Law of Demand,” which states that as globalization progresses, the demand for oil-based energy rises. Because of the wild swings in crude oil prices and demand, governments and policymakers are being pushed to explore new options, such as the use of environmentally friendly technology. The future of business and the marketplace seems to be green alternatives. Large corporations are increasingly allocating resources to research and development (R&D) to keep up with the competition, with a lot of attention being paid to green technology. With the objective of becoming a major manufacturer of electric vehicles (EVs) for the Indian and worldwide markets, India, a rising country, is ready to dive headfirst into this new creative sector. This article’s goal is to investigate the forecasted interest in EVs, the EV market share, and the EVs’ and related technologies’ contribution to international commerce.

Impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Gross Domestic Product and Transportation Cost in Nigeria

This study identified economic problem arising from transportation cost due to removal of fuel subsidy in Nigeria. We therefore decided to collect secondary data from Statista, World Bank web link and prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from 2011-2023. Data on the three variables i.e GDP, the price of PMS and inflation rate were correlated to determine their level of relationships. Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient was used to analyse the secondary data with the aid of SPSS software. The result from the analysis indicated that, inflation increased by 64% with increased fuel price decreasing GDP by 42.5%. Inflation is witnessed to have increased and GDP decreases. It can be seen that fuel is very critical to the development of Nigeria. It has a direct effect on GDP and surprisingly price inflation has impact on Nigerians. Solving one problem perhaps of fuel has a significant effect on economy. There are two things that should be done as alternatives to subsidy removal; the first is to make the supply of fuel more than the demand. The second option is to find alternative fuel like other countries because the demand for crude oil as major revenue may dwindle over time if the buyers who are planning vigorously on alternative fuel are able to do away with our crude oil. The use of electric vehicle, solar powered vehicles, hybrid vehicles and policy that will encourage non-motorized transport can assist Nigeria to forestall future challenges of global oil demand.

ECOLOGY IN TRIBOLOGY: SELECTED PROBLEMS OFELIMINATING NATURAL OIL-BASED LUBRICANTS FROMMACHINE FRICTION COUPLES

The elimination of mineral oil-based lubricants from machines has multiple beneficial effects on the naturalenvironment. Firstly these lubricants are a direct threat to the environment in the event of leaks; secondly their elimination reduces the demand for crude oil from which they are obtained. In addition, in many cases,e.g. when replacing traditional lubricants with water, friction losses in the bearings can also be reduced due tothe lower viscosity of the water, which reduces the energy dissipation in machines.On the other hand, the introduction of self-lubricating materials or water-lubricated bearings causes problemsrelated to the need to adapt the design of machines and materials used to new operating conditions and changedproperties of the lubricants. In the paper, selected examples of problems related to the use of ecologicallubricants are discussed. The high cost of PEEK based polymers resulted in the emergence of cheapersubstitutes on the market; however, in the conducted research, the substitutes presented worse properties thanthose declared by their manufacturers.

The Impact of Credit Bureau on the Non-Performing Loans Situation in the Nigerian Banking Landscape

Lending in the Nigerian banking space has continued to evolve over the years. As changes have occurred in the banking system, so has the level of non-performing loans evolved.
 While the growth in non-performing loans has been as a result of various unwholesome practices in the industry, others have been as a result of global economic downturn such as the United States housing bubble in 2007 - 2008 and then the fall in demand and price of crude oil in 2016, caused another round of financial crisis.
 The Nigerian banking landscape has been bedeviled with lots of non-performing loan challenges over the years. The disbursement of credit facilities in the form of advances, loans, and overdrafts by banks to corporate bodies, individuals, private and public entities occupies a critical and strategic position in the economic growth of a nation. To perform this function, Banks muster funds from the nation’s surplus economic unit of the economy.
 This thesis focuses on how the establishment of credit bureau has impacted the growth or otherwise of non-performing loans, lending practices and policies of banks in Nigeria. 
 Collected and analyzed data through primary and secondary sources. Questionnaires were administered to bank officials and the three major credit bureau companies. However, as is the case with questionnaires distributed, some were returned unanswered due to people being reluctant to furnish detailed replies. 
 This study sets out the theoretical background, rationalization and objectives of the study. A lot of literature reviews on lending policies and reviews of credit control in the banking industry were undertaken, the need for efficient loan administration and the causes of non-performing loans in the banking industry. A summary of the findings, recommended solution and conclusion to the research problems is presented. The outcome revealed that deficient credit analysis, as well as any negative economic impact on the country, has always played a major role in the growth of non-performing loans.
 This study examined the reasons for non-performing loans in the Nigerian banking industry and the impact the credit bureau has played. The ex-post facto research design was adopted during the course of the study. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and Financial Statement of banks for the period 1994-2019 were collated for the time series analysis. The five hypotheses stated were tested using the Ordinary least square regression. Non-performing loans measured by the natural logarithm of aggregate non-performing loans of banks represented the dependent variable, while gross domestic product, inflation rate, total loans and advances, total assets and bank’s lending rate were adopted as the independent variables for the five hypotheses of the study. Macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate, and interest rate were also included as control variables. 
 The result derived from this study showed that GDP had a negative effect on non-performing loans; Bank lending rate, Inflation rate and total loans and advances all had a positive effect on non-performing loans but was insignificant; total Assets exerted a negative effect on non-performing loans and was statistically significant at the 0.05 level.

A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analysis on the macroeconomic effect of global oil price in the Philippines

AbstractStudies have pointed out that oil price volatility influenced economic output and growth among developing and net oil‐importing countries. More than a quarter of the Philippines’ energy demand depends on crude oil, and 99% of the crude oil demand is imported mainly from the Middle East. This study was conducted to determine if there is a nonlinear or asymmetric output response to oil price movements and examine which economic sector in the Philippines is the most vulnerable to oil shocks. This contributes to the literature for a case of developing, oil importing, inflation targeting and post‐oil industry deregulated economy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model was applied to observe quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2019:Q4 of the relevant economic variables. Results revealed an asymmetric effect of non‐oil variables on sectoral performance. World oil prices affect economic sector outputs symmetrically or linearly. The service sector is found to be the most vulnerable sector to oil price shocks. The absence of asymmetry can be attributed to increased competition in the Philippines’ domestic oil industry brought about by oil market deregulation. Improving the energy mix and reducing oil intensity is vital to offset any oil price shock transmission to an oil‐importing economy like the Philippines.