Cross-lagged Effects Research Articles

The autoregressive cross-lagged effect of unions on job satisfaction and burnout

The autoregressive cross-lagged effect of unions on job satisfaction and burnout

A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Reciprocal Effects with the Bivariate STARTS Model

The bivariate Stable Trait, AutoRegressive Trait, and State (STARTS) model provides a general approach for estimating reciprocal effects between constructs over time. However, previous research has shown that this model is difficult to estimate using the maximum likelihood (ML) method (e.g., nonconvergence). In this article, we introduce a Bayesian approach for estimating the bivariate STARTS model and implement it in the software Stan. We discuss issues of model parameterization and show how appropriate prior distributions for model parameters can be selected. Specifically, we propose the four-parameter beta distribution as a flexible prior distribution for the autoregressive and cross-lagged effects. Using a simulation study, we show that the proposed Bayesian approach provides more accurate estimates than ML estimation in challenging data constellations. An example is presented to illustrate how the Bayesian approach can be used to stabilize the parameter estimates of the bivariate STARTS model.

Reciprocal relationship between multicultural adolescents’ depression and life satisfaction: a random intercept cross-lagged panel model for 3-wave panel data

Multicultural adolescents (MA) in Korea experience higher depression and lower life satisfaction compared to Korean native adolescents. To consider appropriate interventions, this study investigates the cross-lagged effect between life satisfaction and depression among these adolescents. Secondary data from the Multicultural Adolescents Panel Survey, which is a nationally representative sample, was analyzed. Data from the 3rd (T1, elementary school), 5th (T2, middle school), and 7th (T3, high school) waves (2013–2017) were used. Altogether, 1,239 MA were included in the sample for analysis; the mean age at T1 was 11.97 (± 0.36) years. The ten-item Depression Scale Questionnaire was used to measure depression, and the three-item Happiness Scale was used to measure life satisfaction. The random intercept cross-lagged panel model was conducted to estimate within-person autoregressive and cross-lagged effects. Life satisfaction and depression had a reciprocal relationship from T1 to T2, while only life satisfaction had a lagged effect from T2 to T3. Life satisfaction’s lagged effect dominated that of depression. The cross-lagged effect size of depression from T1 to T2 was larger than that from T2 to T3, and that of life satisfaction from T2 to T3 was larger than that from T1 to T2. Low life satisfaction in MA continues over time. Depression is not persistent, but if experienced in elementary school, it leads to low life satisfaction in middle school and depression in high school. The findings suggest that early intervention for depression in elementary school can reduce its negative effect MA’s life satisfaction.

The link between empowering leadership and employees' perceptions of the effectiveness of blended working.

Linked to technological and societal developments, including the COVID‐19 pandemic, employees are increasingly being given the opportunity to blend onsite and remote working including flexibility as to when and where they work. Despite the proliferation of such blended working, there is little empirical research on how leaders in organizations can contribute to facilitating its effectiveness. In the present study, we hypothesized that an empowering leadership style would be positively associated with employees' perceptions of the effectiveness of blended working. Additionally, grounded in Self‐Determination Theory, we hypothesized that the satisfaction of employees' work‐related psychological needs for autonomy and for competence would mediate this relation. Results of a field study (N = 405 employees) using a two‐wave panel design supported a cross‐lagged effect of empowering leadership on employees' perceptions of the effectiveness of blended working. However, no evidence was found for the hypothesized mediated relations. Our findings could be of value to organizations as they indicate a specific leadership style that is likely to facilitate the effectiveness of blended working.

Longitudinal reciprocal associations between depression, anxiety, and substance use disorders over three decades of life

Background and objectiveStudies exploring longitudinal reciprocal associations between depressive, anxiety, and substance use disorders (DD, AD and SUD, respectively) over long periods of time are mainly lacking. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to test longitudinal associations (i.e. temporal dynamics) between DD, AD and SUD from young adulthood to middle adulthood. MethodsA stratified community sample of 591 participants from the canton of Zurich, Switzerland, was interviewed with the Structured Psychopathological Interview and Rating of the Social Consequences of Psychological Disturbances for Epidemiology over seven interview waves from ages 20/21 to 49/50. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria were used to evaluate the presence of DD, AD and SUD. We fitted an auto-regressive cross-lagged path analysis within a Bayesian structural equation model to test longitudinal associations. ResultsRegarding autoregressive effects, AD (except during young adulthood) and SUD predicted themselves over the entire time period, while DD recurrently predicted itself not consistently over time. Regarding cross-lagged effects, DD predicted SUD at different time points, and vice versa. DD predicted subsequent AD in adulthood, whereas the reverse did not happen. Female gender was associated with DD and AD at all ages while male gender was associated with SUD only in young adulthood. ConclusionsReciprocal longitudinal associations were found between DD and SUD and DD usually preceded AD. Our results further confirm an increased risk of DD and AD in women and a higher risk of SUD in young men. Early treatment and broad psychosocial interventions should be provided in order to prevent chronicity and further maladjustment as well as interrupting the cycle of mutual reinforcement between DD and SUD.

The longitudinal interplay of personality and school experiences in adolescence

The school environment is one key developmental context that is assumed to shape individual characteristics during adolescence. However, little is known about which school experiences are central to personality change or whether school experiences and personality co-shape each other over time. We address this gap by examining the longitudinal interplay between seven school experiences in the three domains of achievement, social relationships, and well-being, and the Big Five personality traits at four measurement points from fifth to eighth grade. By using data from the German TRAIN study ( N = 3,473, MageT1 = 11.1 years, 45% female), we estimated bivariate latent growth curve models and cross-lagged panel models to illustrate this longitudinal interplay. Results demonstrated correlated change between school experiences and personality with differentiated patterns for achievement variables and a general longitudinal interplay with the social relationship and well-being variables. Furthermore, we found cross-lagged effects in both directions, although there were more effects of personality on school experiences. The most consistent predictor of school experiences was conscientiousness, whereas well-being in school in particular was related to personality change 1 year later. We integrate our findings into the current picture of personality development in adolescence and the role of school-related environmental factors.

Workplace bullying and tiredness at work: A cross-lagged prospective study of causal directions and the moderating effects of a conflict management climate.

ObjectivesTo prospectively investigate the reciprocal associations between tiredness at work (TAW) and exposure to bullying behaviors and to determine the role of conflict management climate (CMC) as a moderator of these associations.MethodsA two‐wave national probability sample of employees in Sweden (18 months between waves, 921 participated at both waves) measuring TAW, workplace bullying, and CMC. Structural equation modelling was used to test four hypotheses about the longitudinal associations between feeling tired at work and bullying, and CMC as a moderator for the two directions.ResultsIn the analyses of cross‐lagged effects, tiredness was significantly associated with an increase in subsequent bullying (β = 0.08, P = .01). Exposure to bullying was not associated with changes in tiredness. CMC moderated the association between tiredness and subsequent bullying (β = −0.13, 95% CI [−0.19, −0.08]), showing an increased risk of exposure to bullying behaviors following tiredness when CMC was low and decreased risk when CMC was high.ConclusionsTAW is a risk factor for subsequent bullying. Finding ways to help employees to reduce tiredness not only will help them perform better at work but also reduce the risk of them becoming targets of bullying. A strong CMC can act as a buffer if a tired person provoke aggression from co‐workers.

Does a reciprocal relationship exist between social engagement and depression in later life?

Objectives We examine if reciprocal associations exist between formal and informal social engagement and depression in older adults. Method We apply dynamic panel-data structural equation models accompanied with the maximum likelihood estimator (ML-SEM) to the seven waves of data of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA). Results Formal social engagement in and through various voluntary groups exerts both cross-lagged and proximal effects in lessening depressive symptoms. In contrast, informal social engagement with familiar persons exhibits only proximal association with depression. Conversely, depression does not reciprocate a cross-lagged effect on either type of social engagement. Conclusion The study confirms that formal social engagement in and through various voluntary groups produces a protective effect against depression for older adults across time, supporting the mental health advantage of formal engagement.

Supplemental Material for How to Model and Interpret Cross-Lagged Effects in Psychotherapy Mechanisms of Change Research: A Comparison of Multilevel and Structural Equation Models

Supplemental Material for How to Model and Interpret Cross-Lagged Effects in Psychotherapy Mechanisms of Change Research: A Comparison of Multilevel and Structural Equation Models

Longitudinal Relationship between Gratitude and Benign/Malicious Envy: Evidence from a Cross-Lagged Analysis

Though prior research has identified that gratitude is associated with benign/malicious envy (BeMaS). The purpose of this study was to explore the causal relationship between gratitude and BeMaS among Chinese adolescents. The two-wave study, in which 906 adolescents participated, includes measurements of gratitude and BeMaS. We employed the structural equation models to test the cross-lagged effect between trait gratitude and BeMaS. The results showed that gratitude could positively predict benign envy and could negatively predict malicious envy. Besides, there was no evidence for the reverse or reciprocal relationships between gratitude and BeMaS. The findings provide further evidence about the causal relationship between gratitude and BeMaS among adolescents. Moreover, these results have implications for gratitude interventions that promote the constructive meaning of envy and reduce the negative influence of envy.

A longitudinal study investigating the relationships among multicultural receptivity, sense of community, and self-esteem of Korean adolescents.

The relative homogeneity in ethnicity and language of native Koreans and their highly competitive lifestyle, especially among adolescents preparing for college, have limited their solidarity with heterogeneous ethnic groups, which may cause problems in this global era. This study uses the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey to explore the relationships among multicultural receptivity, sense of community, and self-esteem for Korean adolescents over three time points. For this purpose this study conducted an autoregressive cross-lagged path analysis, controlling for covariates such as gender, parenting style, peer attachment, and satisfaction with academic achievement. The cross-lagged effects on each other of self-esteem and sense of community were positive over time. The cross-lagged effects on each other of multicultural receptivity and self-esteem were not statistically significant. The results were less symmetrical for the third pairing: the effects of multicultural receptivity on sense of community were consistently positive, but the effects of sense of community on multicultural receptivity were not statistically significant. To enhance the sense of community, promoting multicultural receptivity and self-esteem would therefore show good results.

Longitudinal assessment of the common sense model before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: A large coeliac disease cohort study

ObjectivePsychosocial factors likely play a substantial role in the well-being of those living with coeliac disease, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, little research has examined well-being in this cohort using an integrated socio-cognitive model. This study had two aims: (1) Examine changes in gastrointestinal symptoms, psychosocial factors, and well-being outcomes (i.e., psychological distress, quality of life [QoL]) associated with the pandemic, (2) Examine the interrelationship of these variables across timepoints using the Common Sense Model (CSM). Methods1697 adults with coeliac disease (Time 1, pre-pandemic; 83.1% female, mean age = 55.8, SD = 15.0 years) and 674 follow-up participants (Time 2, pandemic; 82.8% female, mean age = 57.0, SD = 14.4 years) completed an online questionnaire. Hypotheses were tested using repeated measures MANOVA and cross-lagged panel model analyses. ResultsParticipants reported improved QoL, and reduced gastrointestinal symptoms, negative illness perceptions and maladaptive coping from pre-pandemic to during the pandemic. There was no significant change in pain catastrophising or psychological distress. Cross-lagged effects showed gastrointestinal symptoms to predict negative illness perceptions, which in turn were predictive of poorer outcomes across all variables except pain catastrophising. Consistent with the CSM, there was a reciprocal relationship between illness perceptions and QoL over time. Maladaptive coping and pain catastrophising demonstrated limited predictive utility. ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic appears to have had a small beneficial effect across several indices of well-being among adults with coeliac disease. Cross-lagged relationships highlight illness perceptions as a predictor of well-being outcomes and a potential target for psychosocial interventions.

The dark triad and bullying in adolescence: A three-wave random intercept cross-lagged panel analysis

Few have studied the longitudinal associations between the Dark Triad and bullying in youth and none have examined these relations using analytic techniques that permit separating between- from within-person variability. Random intercept cross-lagged panel modeling was used with three waves of data from a randomly selected sample of 514 Canadian adolescents aged 15–18 to assess the Dark Triad and bullying over time. Controlling for sex and parental education, at the between-person level, random intercepts for Machiavellianism and psychopathy correlated positively with bullying. At the within-person level, moment-to-moment stability was found for narcissism and Machiavellianism. Residual within-time correlations mirrored bivariate associations, indicating that Machiavellianism and psychopathy shared consistent links with bullying. Cross-lagged effects were found for both disposition- and perpetration-driven pathways.

The structure of everyday happiness is best captured by a latent subjective well-being factor

We examined the structure of subjective well-being (SWB), comprising life satisfaction (LS), positive affect (PA), and negative affect (NA), in everyday life. 4,286 French adults (Mage = 30 years; 72% female) rated momentary LS, PA, and NA on at least four occasions over 25 days (average). A random intercept cross-lagged panel model revealed strong loadings from LS, PA, and NA on latent SWB factors within and across occasions, but weak and inconsistent cross-lagged effects. Correlations among LS, PA, and NA were consistent across age, sex, day of the week, and time of day. Further, most individuals were characterized by a positive LS-PA correlation along with negative LS-NA and PA-NA correlations, providing evidence of generalizability across individuals.

A Methodological Note: An Introduction to Autoregressive Models.

The autoregressive model is a useful tool to analyze longitudinal data. It is particularly suitable for gerontological research as autoregressive models can be used to establish the causal relationship within a single variable over time as well as the causal ordering between two or more variables (e.g., physical health and psychological well-being) over time through bivariate autoregressive cross-lagged or contemporaneous models. Specifically, bivariate autoregressive models can explore the cross-lagged effects between two variables over time to determine the proper causal ordering between these variables. The advantage of analyzing cross-lagged effects is to test for the strength of prediction between two variables controlling for each variable's previous time score as well as the autoregressive component of the model. Bivariate autoregressive contemporaneous models can also be used to determine causal ordering within the same time point when compared to cross-lagged effects. Since the technique uses structural equation modeling, models are also adjusted for measurement error. This paper will present an introduction to setting up models and a step-by-step approach to analyzing univariate simplex autoregressive models, bivariate autoregressive cross-lagged models, and bivariate autoregressive contemporaneous models.

The effects of reciprocal support on mental health among intergenerational non-relatives–A comparison by age group

PurposeThis study aimed to verify the direction of providing and receiving intergenerational support and examine its effects on mental health among intergenerational non-relatives. Materials and MethodsIn the initial survey (Time1), approximately 65,000 residents of Wako City in Saitama Prefecture, Japan, were considered, from which, a sample of 7,000 people was obtained. A total of 2,982 valid responses was received, and a follow-up survey was conducted two years later (Time2). ResultsStructural equation modeling with a cross-lagged effect model and a synchronous effect model showed that the direction of giving and receiving intergenerational support had changed with age; while the young and middle-aged groups shifted their direction from receiving support to giving support, the older adults shifted their direction from giving support to receiving support. Furthermore, in the young-adults group, receiving support from older adults positively influenced their mental health two years later. For the middle-aged group, giving support positively influenced their mental health at Time2. For the old-old group, receiving support from young and middle-aged people positively influenced the mental health at Time2. ConclusionsTo facilitate intergenerational mutual help in the local community, it is necessary to create opportunities for older adults to provide support to young and middle-aged people and, in return, create a mechanism to prompt support from young and middle-aged people for older adults.

Perceived Health, Psychological Distress, and Subjective Well-Being among Older Adults with Parkinson’s Disease: A Cross-Lagged Analysis

A growing aging population leads to a gradual increase in the number of patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD). This study examines how perceived health, psychological distress, and subjective well-being evolve in older adults with PD. A cross-lagged study design was employed using data from Waves 4 and 6 of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). In total, 421 older adults diagnosed with PD at baseline (46% women; mean age 74.98 ± 9.05 years) were included in the study and were followed up after a four-year lag. Auto-regressive and cross-lagged associations between the measured variables were examined in reciprocal models. Individual differences in perceived health, psychological distress, and subjective well-being were relatively stable over the 4-year lag. A final reciprocal model with significant cross-lagged effects explained the underlying structure of the sample data well: χ2 (49) = 101.876, p < 0.001, CFI = 0.953, NFI = 0.935, RMSEA = 0.050, and AIC = 241.876. Increased difficulties in fulfilling instrumental activities and a lowered level of subjective well-being were particularly noticeable in older adults with PD during the four-year follow-up. Additional attention should be paid to helping older patients with PD cope better with their functional limitations and improve their sense of well-being.

Investigating Relationships between Preschool Children's Perceived Competence, Motor Skills, and Physical Activity: A Cross-Lagged Panel Model.

Background: Motor skill competence (MSC) and perceived competence (PC) are primary correlates that are linked with physical activity (PA) participation, yet there is limited evidence of the mutual longitudinal or temporal associations between these variables in preschoolers. Therefore, this study’s purpose was to examine the bidirectional relationships between MSC and PA, MSC and PC, and PC and PA in preschoolers over time. Methods: The final sample were 61 preschoolers (Mage = 4.45 years, ranging from 4 to 5) from two underserved schools. MSC was assessed using the Test of Gross Motor Development, Second Edition (TGMD-2). PC was assessed using the Pictorial Scale of Perceived Competence and Social Acceptance for Young Children. PA was assessed using ActiGraph GT9X Link accelerometers during three consecutive school days. All assessments of MSC, PC, and PA were measured in identical conditions at schools at the baseline (T1) and the end of the eighth week (T2). We employed a cross-lagged model approach to understand the bidirectional relationships between MSC, PC, and PA. Results: The results showed that T1 MSC significantly predicted T2 MSC (p < 0.01) and T1 MSC significantly predicted T2 PA only in girls (p = 0.03). Additionally, a cross-lagged effect of T1 MSC and T2 PC was only observed in boys (p = 0.03). Lastly, a significant association for T1 moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and T2 PC was only observed in girls (p = 0.04). Conclusions: Bidirectional relationships between the variables were not observed in preschoolers. However, significant gender differences were observed in each cross-lagged model.

Transactional patterns of depressive symptoms between mothers and adolescents: The role of emotion regulation.

Depression is a highly prevalent, debilitating disorder that runs in families. Yet, empirical support for bidirectional mechanisms linking mother-adolescent depression symptoms remains limited. This study examined longitudinal bidirectional relations among emotion regulation (ER) constructs and depressive symptoms among mother-adolescent dyads over time. Pathways for girls and boys were explored separately, given extant research on sex differences in the intergenerational transmission of depression. Adolescent (n = 232; M = 15.02 years, SD = 0.95; 44% female)-mother dyads, drawn from a longitudinal study on the development of risky behaviors, completed annual assessments of depressive symptoms and facets of ER over 4 years. Panel modeling examined lagged and cross-lagged effects of mother-adolescent depressive symptoms and ER constructs over time, in a multigroup model of boys and girls. Among girls, higher baseline maternal depression scores predicted increased adolescent ER difficulties (std. est. = -.42, p < .001) in turn, predicting increased adolescent depressive symptoms (std. est. = -.33, p = .002) and subsequent maternal ER difficulties (std. est. = .39, p = .002). The indirect effect of maternal depressive symptoms→adolescent ER→adolescent depressive symptoms→maternal ER was significant (ind. eff. = .10, 95% confidence interval [>.001, .19]) for girls, but not boys. Implications for interrupting intergenerational cycles of depressive symptoms and emotion dysregulation are discussed.

Does sexting predict sexual behaviors among adolescents? Gender and race effects

IntroductionSexting has emerged as a significant public health issue. Sexting is associated with substance use and other sexual behaviors, such as oral and vaginal sex (Houck et al., 2014; Temple & Choi, 2014). Current studies on sexting are often cross-sectional, limiting the ability to determine the temporal order of sexting and sexual behaviors. Additionally, studies focus on samples of young adults (Benotsch et al., 2013). The current study extends the literature by examining sexting and sexual behaviors longitudinally among adolescents and examines race and gender differences that play a role in sexting. MethodsThe current study utilizes a prospective, 4-year longitudinal study of 1240 adolescents (aged 11–17) living in the Midwestern United States. Overall, the sample was 10% Black males, 11% Black females, 34% White Males, 31% White females, and 15% identified as Other. Analysis includes an autoregressive model with cross-lagged effects in MPlus. ResultsSexting (T1) predicted oral and sexual encounters (T4) for Black males, White males, and White females but not for Black females. Oral sex and sexual encounters (T4) did not predict any sexting (T1) for all groups. Therefore, analysis establishes sexting as an antecedent to sexual behaviors for Black males, White males, and White females. Sexting and sexual behaviors did not have a significant association for Black females. ConclusionsThis study identifies sexting as a precursor to sexual behaviors among adolescents. Therefore, when tailoring programs for safe sex among these populations, focusing on sexting may reduce other sexual risky behaviors.